532
FXUS63 KTOP 030535
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1235 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK, ALLOWING TIME FOR
SATURATED GROUND TO DRY OUT AND RIVERS TO RECEDE.
- SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES LOOK NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN WARM
SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOW 80S MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHING WELL EAST OF THE AREA INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY, WHILE A RIDGE IS TAKING SHAPE OVER SOUTHERN CA. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED IN THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH DRY AIR
ADVECTION LEADING TO DEW POINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S ALONGSIDE PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE HELPING US REACH THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
THIS IS A BIT WARMER AND DRIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, AND AS SUCH
DECIDED TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR SATURDAY, CLOSER
TO THE ENSEMBLE MEAN RATHER THAN ON THE COOLER END OF GUIDANCE. IN
THE MEANTIME, AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY, WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE CLEAR SKIES WITH
LIGHT WINDS. THIS ALONG WITH WET SOILS FROM THE RECENT RAINFALL
WOULD POINT TO AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG, AND RAP/HRRR
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AROUND THE AREA SHOW A SHALLOW SFC LAYER
INDICATIVE OF THAT FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE. HOWEVER, THE
POSITION OF THE SFC HIGH WOULD ALSO FAVOR CONTINUED DRY AIR
ADVECTION AND PERHAPS THIS IS WHY GUIDANCE ISN'T OVERLY EXCITED
ABOUT FOG. SREF PROBABILITIES ARE RATHER LOW, AND THE SIGNAL FROM
HREF AND REFS POINTS TOWARD MORE PATCHY FOG WHICH MAKES SENSE FOR
THE VALLEYS THAT CAN GET COOLER. GIVEN THE FACT OUR DEW POINTS ARE
LOWER THIS AFTERNOON, THAT WOULD MEAN LOWER CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES
AS WELL. SO WHILE SOME PATCHY FOG IS WITHIN THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITY, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IT LOOKS MORE CONFINED TO LOW-
LYING SPOTS LIKE RIVER VALLEYS.
THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST BUILDS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, LEADING TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN OUR AREA. WHILE ENSEMBLE
CLUSTERS HAVE SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THAT RIDGE, THEY
ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL PATTERN HOLDING WITH PERHAPS SOME
FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. NO NOTABLE SOURCES
OF LIFT ARE NOTED BETWEEN NOW AND THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, SO
A DRY PATTERN SHOULD GIVE US A WELCOME BREAK FROM THE RAINY LAST FEW
DAYS. AFTER A CRISP SATURDAY MORNING STARTING OUT IN THE 40S, NEAR
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. WE WARM UP SLIGHTLY FOR THE BACK HALF OF
NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS REACH THE 80S FOR SOME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A STABLE PATTERN WITH DRY
AIR AND VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
PROBABILITY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT APPEARS VERY LOW, AND ANY VALLEY FOG
THAT DOES DEVELOP ISN'T EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS. REGIONAL
VWPS SHOW WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE INCREASING SLIGHTLY, SO
CONTINUED MIXING SHOULD INHIBIT FOG FORMATION, AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...PICHA
AVIATION...DRAKE
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