342
FXUS63 KTOP 031736
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1236 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK, GIVING
SATURATED GROUND AND SWOLLEN RIVERS MORE TIME TO FULLY RECOVER.
- NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND, THEN A WARMING TREND
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S FOR SOME BY MIDWEEK.
- HUMIDITY CREEPS BACK NEXT WEEK ON RETURNING SOUTH WINDS, BUT THE
FIRST TRUE FALL AIR MASS HOLDS OFF BEYOND THIS FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 427 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
THE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE TROUGH BEHIND THIS WEEK'S
HEAVY RAIN EXITING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, LEAVING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN IT AND A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY COLUMN OVERHEAD WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED THROUGH THE CWA. FRIDAY VERIFIED AT THE
WARM END OF THE FORECAST, WITH HIGHS OF 70 TO 72 AND AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S, SUPPORTING ANOTHER
SLIGHT WARM LEAN TODAY. EXPECT A CRISP EARLY FALL MORNING IN THE 40S,
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE, AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S. CONFIDENCE IN A DRY,
QUIET DAY IS HIGH.
PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING HAS STAYED SHALLOW AND CONFINED TO
LOW-LYING AREAS, WITH THE DRIER AIR MASS LIMITING DEVELOPMENT
BEYOND THE TYPICALLY COOLER SPOTS. AREA VWPS ALSO SHOW SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE, WITH THAT GRADUAL MIXING
HELPING TO KEEP FOG DEVELOPMENT IN CHECK. ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY
VALLEY FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY, THOUGH A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND A SIMILAR
LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE BOTH WORK AGAINST ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.
IMPACTS STAY LOW, WITH ANY FOG GONE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH AND HOLDS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A SLOW RETURN OF
MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE GRADUALLY RAISE DEWPOINTS, SO THE AIR MASS
TURNS MORE HUMID EVEN AS RAIN CHANCES STAY NEAR ZERO BENEATH THE
BROAD RIDGING. HEIGHT PLUMES HOLD STEADY THROUGH MIDWEEK AND EVERY
WPC CLUSTER KEEPS POSITIVE ANOMALIES ANCHORED OVER THE PLAINS,
SUPPORTING HIGHS CLIMBING FROM THE LOW 70S INTO THE LOW 80S FOR
SOME BY MIDWEEK. STRONG ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT KEEPS CONFIDENCE IN THE
DRY, WARMING TREND HIGH.
THE FIRST CRACKS APPEAR LATE IN THE WEEK AS HEIGHT PLUMES BEGIN A
SLOW DECLINE AND MEMBER SPREAD WIDENS BEYOND THURSDAY. CLUSTERS
DIFFER ON THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH'S DEPTH AND TIMING BUT KEEP THE
AREA DRY INTO NEXT WEEKEND, POINTING TO A FLATTENING RIDGE RATHER
THAN A REGIME CHANGE. THE SEASONAL TRANSITION APPEARS TO BE
STARTING WITH THE MORE SHALLOW MOISTURE RETURN, BUT THE TRUE AIR
MASS CHANGE STILL WAITS ON AN UPSTREAM TROUGH BRINGING A MORE
MEANINGFUL PUSH OF COOLER CANADIAN AIR BEHIND IT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE. A WEAK COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH IN
THE 09Z-13Z WINDOW BUT LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
BR OR MIFG FORMATION AHEAD OF IT, AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD STAY
INSULATED FROM FRONTAL EFFECTS UNTIL AFTER 13Z. HAVE INCLUDED BR AND
MIFG AND TOP GIVEN ITS CLIMATOLOGY AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ADJUST
AS NEEDED.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRAKE
AVIATION...POAGE
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