651
FXUS63 KTOP 031837
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
137 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NO PRECIPITATION AND MODEST WINDS THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY THEN SLIGHTLY WARMER INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 137 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
BROAD UPPER RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES WITH MODERATE
JET ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN STATES. A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY DRAGS A
MODEST COLD FRONT ACROSS KANSAS TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT
BRINGS DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
THIS EVENING. WITH A WEAK WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
ITSELF, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG FORMATION LATE
THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MOST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE FAILS TO
GENERATE MUCH FOG, THOUGH PROGS 24 HOURS AGO FOR THIS MORNING WERE
SIMILAR AND THERE WAS SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG IN FAVORED LOCATIONS.
AT THIS POINT WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OUT BUT IT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED. MODEST NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY WEAKEN AGAIN
UNDER CLEAR SKIES WHICH PRESENTS ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOG CONCERN. HIGHS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD STILL BE IN THE 70S IN ONLY MINOR AIRMASS
CHANGES.
ANOTHER MODEST WAVE TO THE NORTH PUSHES ANOTHER WEAK FRONT INTO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY BUT WARM-AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT SHOULD SUPPLY A
SLIGHTLY WARMER TUESDAY AND INTO THE LATER WEEK PERIODS WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUPPORTED BY LREF 850 MB TEMPERATURE MEANS. BY
THIS TIME, THE UPPER FLOW BACKS A BIT IN RESPONSE TO UPPER ENERGY
MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST. NOTABLE IMPACTS LOCALLY FROM THIS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE. A WEAK COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH IN
THE 09Z-13Z WINDOW BUT LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
BR OR MIFG FORMATION AHEAD OF IT, AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD STAY
INSULATED FROM FRONTAL EFFECTS UNTIL AFTER 13Z. HAVE INCLUDED BR AND
MIFG AND TOP GIVEN ITS CLIMATOLOGY AND WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ADJUST
AS NEEDED.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...POAGE
AVIATION...POAGE
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