925
FXUS63 KTOP 190524
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1224 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS 5-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
BY LATE WEEK.
- WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH NO FREEZE CONCERNS.
- A FEW STRAY SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN LATE INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
MID DAY TEMPERATURES TOOK A NICE JUMP INTO THE MIDDLE 60S THIS PAST
HOUR, ON WHAT HAS BEEN A CLEAR AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY FALL DAY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IS CLEAR, WATER VAPOR
SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE STATE THIS HOUR, LIKELY ASSISTING
WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS AND THE JUMP IN TEMPERATURES AS IT
PASSES. RADAR ALSO INDICATING ANOTHER DAY OF ACTIVE RETURNS AROUND
WATER BODIES AS THE FALL MIGRATION CONTINUES.
THE CONTIGUOUS US REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN OMEGA BLOCK TYPE
PATTERN, WITH BOTH EASTERN AND WESTERN TROFS THAT WANE BUT ARE AGAIN
REINFORCED OVER TIME. THE OVERALL TREND IN THE FORECAST IS A WARMING
ONE, WITH THE NBM TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND HIGHS AND LOWS THAT RISE A
FEW DEGREES EACH DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 BY LATE
WEEK. WORTH NOTING THAT THE NBM HAS BEEN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES, SO WENT ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE IN THE
SHORT TERM. SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE DUE TO SHORTWAVE
TROFS MOVING INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS HAVE SOME
GUIDANCE GIVING A LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER, BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH TO EVAPORATE MOST ATTEMPTS. BETTER CHANCES MAY
COME OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE WESTERN TROF FINALLY ADVANCES EASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL US, BUT THE CONTINUED TROPICAL ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN
MEXICO AND ITS INFLUENCES IN THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THAT TROF
LEAVE UNCERTAINTY TO STRENGTH AND TIMING OF WHAT CAN DEVELOP.
NO FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST THIS WEEK, WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS RISING BACK INTO THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE WARM AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS COULD WARRANT SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, HOWEVER
WITH THE LACK SO FAR OF A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE, VEGETATION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO HOLD MOISTURE TO HELP MITIGATE WIDESPREAD CONCERNS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
VFR CONTINUES. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH A PASSING WAVE ALOFT,
BUT OTHERWISE WINDS STAY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH, BACKING SLIGHTLY
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE PERIOD.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...CRAVEN
AVIATION...PICHA
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