912
FXUS63 KTOP 190730
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
230 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TREND UP THROUGH THIS WEEK, STARTING NEAR
NORMAL AND BECOMING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BY WEEK'S END.
- A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS WEEK
WITH BETTER (BUT STILL LOW) RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING DEPICTS A DEVELOPING LOW
OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WITH A COUPLE OF WEAKER SHORTWAVES
WITHIN BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PLAINS REGION. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUD COVER IS INCREASING ACROSS THE
STATE AS A RESULT OF THIS SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE
LITTLE IMPACT FROM THESE WAVES IN OUR AREA ASIDE FROM THESE CLOUDS,
THOUGH IT IS WORTH NOTING CAMS ARE SHOWING BRIEF, ISOLATED SHOWERS
IN NORTH CENTRAL KS THIS MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE ENOUGH MID-
LEVEL DRY AIR THAT IT WOULD SEEM HARD PRESSED FOR MUCH, IF ANY, RAIN
TO REACH THE GROUND, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR SPRINKLE
FOR A SHORT TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
DESPITE THE NBM RUNNING A BIT COOL THE LAST TWO DAYS, OPTED NOT TO
STRAY FROM IT TOO MUCH FOR TODAY GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
DECREASE IN SOUTHERLY WIND. IT'S A SIMILAR STORY FOR TUESDAY BOTH IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURES AND A BRIEF, LOW RAIN CHANCE IN THE AREA WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY STILL OVERHEAD.
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THE PACIFIC TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND DIGS
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, HELPING TO STRENGTHEN THE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL US. THIS FAVORS TEMPERATURES WARMING FURTHER AS MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS RISE, WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE 50S AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S (WHICH IS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID-
OCTOBER). THERE IS STILL VERY LITTLE SPREAD THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME,
BUT CURIOUSLY, HIGHS HAVE TRENDED COOLER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DESPITE
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE RIDGE AXIS STILL BEING OVERHEAD AND THE LOW-
LEVEL WIND FIELD INCREASING WITH LEE TROUGHING AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE FIRST LEAD SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO LIFT NORTHEAST
FRIDAY AND KEEP US DRY, WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES COMING SATURDAY.
THAT SAID, MODELS NOTABLY DIVERGE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH BY THE WEEKEND, LEADING TO MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING
OF ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTS AND RAIN CHANCES. AS A RESULT, POPS
REMAIN BELOW 50% THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURE RANGES WIDEN TO
10-15 DEGREES BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
VFR CONTINUES. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE WITH A PASSING WAVE ALOFT,
BUT OTHERWISE WINDS STAY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH, BACKING SLIGHTLY
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE PERIOD.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...PICHA
AVIATION...PICHA
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