566
FXUS63 KTOP 191850
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
150 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY AND THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS LOOK TO BE SPOTTY.
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
- THERE IS A 15-35% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING MILD FOR LATE OCTOBER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE GULF COAST.
THIS PLACED SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A
WEAK WAVE LIFTING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL KS. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LIFT HAVE COMBINED FOR SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS WITH MAINLY TRACE
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE REACHING THE GROUND. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MS RIVER VALLEY
HAVE FAVORED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER MOISTURE RETURN FROM
THE GULF COAST HAS BE SLOW.
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, A SECOND MORE ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE
THEN TODAY'S WAVE IS PROGGED TO ROUND THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WITH SOME CONTINUED
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND BETTER MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD LEAD
TO SOME ISOLATED ELEVATED SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATE ARE FORECASTS TO ONLY BE AROUND 6 C/KM SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED A MENTION OF THUNDER, BUT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF THERE
ARE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WITH THE SLOWER MOISTURE RETURN THAN
THE MODELS EXPECTED AND SKIES CLEARING OUT TONIGHT AS THE WAVE LIFTS
NORTH OF THE AREA, HAVE ADJUSTED MINT GRIDS A LITTLE LOWER CLOSER TO
MOS GUIDANCE THINKING THERE SHOULD BE REASONABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TREND
WARMER A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY. OVERALL THERE IS PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS THE ENSEMBLES.
SO HAVE NOT STRAYED TO FAR FROM THE NBM.
UPPER RIDGING IS PROGGED TO SET UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH NO
OBVIOUS FORCING FOR VERTICAL MOTION. SO THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO
CALL FOR DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS CONTINUING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND.
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, THE SPREAD IN POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS
INCREASES QUITE A BIT AS MODELS STRUGGLE TO HANDLE THE UPPER TROUGH
COMING OUT OF THE WEST. THE MAIN IDEA IS FOR A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. SO SOME SMALL CHANCES
FOR PRECIP AND A COOLING TREND SEEM TO BE A GOOD STEP AND THIS IS
SHOWN IN THE NBM SOLUTION. THOUGH THE DETAILS ON WHEN THE FRONT
IMPACTS THE AREA AND IT'S AFFECT ON TEMPS WILL PROBABLY CHANGE FROM
DAY TO DAY UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE OBVIOUS HOW THE PATTERN WILL
EVOLVE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
DRY AIR IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS WITH LITTLE OR NO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOLTERS
AVIATION...WOLTERS
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