543
FXUS63 KTOP 200806
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
306 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SPOTTY SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES (15-40%) COME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- A SLOW WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THIS WEEK BEFORE
COOLING DOWN SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT COVERING THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS. VAD WIND PROFILERS ARE
INDICATIVE OF A WEAKER SHORTWAVE IN THE OK/TX PANHANDLE VICINITY. A
WEAK AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE IS NOTED IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN OK AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS. IN RESPONSE
TO THIS, MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION WITH SOME LIGHT
RETURNS ON RADAR, BUT ONLY ONE OBSERVATION OF RAIN REACHING THE
GROUND THUS FAR IN WICHITA. ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS WEAK THROUGH THE
MORNING, BUT LOOKS TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
BETTER UPPER SUPPORT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE. OVERALL, LIMITED MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN MAY MEAN
LESS ACTUAL RAINFALL COMPARED TO WHAT IS SHOWN ON CAMS THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE THINKING IS THAT THERE IS STILL
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES, WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE HIT OR MISS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, SO HAVE GONE WITH A
BROAD MENTION OF THIS AREA-WIDE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH ENOUGH SOUTHERLY WIND
TO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 DEGREES.
ONCE THE SHORTWAVE PASSES WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS AND INCHES CLOSER TO THE AREA WHILE THE PACIFIC TROUGH SLOWLY
MOVES ONTO THE COAST. THIS FAVORS WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE
AND END OF THE WORK WEEK, BRINGING HIGHS TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S
WHILE LOWS SLOWLY CLIMB THROUGH THE 50S EACH MORNING. MODELS STILL
DIVERGE ON THEIR EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH BY THE WEEKEND,
WHICH RESULTS IN DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE SFC FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED RAIN CHANCES. SOME SOLUTIONS ARE TRYING TO STALL THE
FRONT NEARBY, OR POTENTIALLY STILL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND DELAY IT UNTIL MONDAY. THIS LEADS TO OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE, LOW PROBABILITY RAIN CHANCES MAINLY IN WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA SATURDAY, WHICH SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES OVERALL TREND A BIT COOLER (CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS)
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN EXACTLY WHEN WE SEE
THAT COOL-DOWN AS SPREADS BECOME LARGER SUNDAY AND BEYOND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
VFR CONTINUES. FOLLOWING AN INCREASE OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS LATER
THIS MORNING, THERE MAY BE SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS AT TIMES INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, THESE LOOK TO BE BRIEF AND HIT OR
MISS, WITH CONFIDENCE DURING ANY PARTICULAR TIME PERIOD NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS. OTHERWISE, LIGHT WINDS VEER FROM
THE ESE TOWARDS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING AND BACK TO THE SSE LATE.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...PICHA
AVIATION...PICHA
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