597
FXUS63 KTOP 210544
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1244 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CHANCES (10-20%) FOR SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE-NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY, TRENDING COOLER
WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW RESIDES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. EMBEDDED
ENERGY IN THE MEAN FLOW CONTINUES TO SPARK SPOTTY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
ACROSS THE AREA. A MORE PRONOUNCED WAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS KANSAS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH SOMEWHAT DEEPER SATURATION AND
THE HIGHER CHANCES (20%) FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. EXPECT SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE DRY CONDITIONS RETURN. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
WINDS ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S
WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
WESTERN TROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE MAIN TROUGH FARTHER WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, LEADING TO A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. AS
SUCH, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, POTENTIALLY EVEN SUNDAY, BEFORE A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SHUNTS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
TEMPERATURE SPREADS REMAIN LARGE SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK GIVEN
DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL POSITIONING AND CLOUD COVER/PRECIPITATION.
NONETHELESS, HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES COME AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY-MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
VFR CONTINUES. CONSIDERED ADDING MENTION OF -RA AT TOPEKA TERMINALS
FOR THE FIRST HOUR OF THIS PERIOD WITH LIGHT RAIN ONGOING, BUT AT
THIS POINT WITH MOST OF IT PASSING EAST, THINKING THAT THE REST OF
IT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE VICINITY BEFORE THE NEXT HOUR IS UP.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT SOUTH WINDS PERSIST WITH HIGH CLOUDS PASSING EAST OF
TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FLANAGAN
AVIATION...PICHA
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