284
FXUS63 KTOP 211722
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1222 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK.
- THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
A LARGE CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE CA COAST WITH A RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE OVERHEAD ROUNDING THAT RIDGE
IS RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT REMAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS EARLY THIS MORNING. ONCE THE UPPER WAVE
PASSES TO OUR EAST MID TO LATE MORNING, THAT SHOULD END ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS WITH SUBSIDENCE TAKING OVER. THAT SHOULD ALSO
ALLOW CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT WITH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY, REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS THEN
MOVES OVERHEAD FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, LEADING TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS, ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY AS LEE SFC TROUGHING DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST. WHILE THE SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES REMAINS
SMALL, AM THINKING THE 90TH PERCENTILE IS PROBABLY MORE ACCURATE AS
MODELS OFTENTIMES ARE NOT WARM ENOUGH IN SETUPS LIKE THESE AND WE'VE
ALREADY BEEN SEEING THAT TREND THE LAST FEW DAYS, EVEN IF ONLY BY A
FEW DEGREES. WITH THAT IN MIND, WOULD THINK SOME PLACES WILL
PROBABLY SEE LOW 80S AT SOME POINT BETWEEN TODAY AND SATURDAY.
MORE OF THE GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE CATCHING ON TO THE SLOWER TREND
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
ON FRIDAY LOOKS TO EJECT NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND PHASE WITH
THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING PATTERN IN CANADA, LIMITING ITS IMPACT
ON OUR AREA. WHAT REMAINS OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SUNDAY AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE
PLAINS MONDAY, BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME MONDAY.
THERE ARE STILL ENOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCES THAT RESULT IN LARGE
TEMPERATURE SPREADS STARTING SUNDAY IN NORTH CENTRAL KS IF THE FRONT
WERE TO MOVE FASTER AND BRING CLOUDS/RAIN INTO THE AREA THAT EARLY.
A SLOWER SOLUTION WOULD KEEP WARMER/DRIER CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY COOLER
TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS OF NOW, THE
HIGHER POPS (30-50%) ARE FOCUSED ON MONDAY, WHICH MAKES SENSE BASED
ON THE RECENT TREND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG OVERNIGHT GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
CROSSOVER THRESHOLDS. GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIGNAL FOR AT LEAST SOME
CLOUD COVERAGE, WHICH COULD LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. HAVE HELD OFF
ON INSERTING A FOG MENTION FOR NOW.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...PICHA
AVIATION...FLANAGAN
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