458
FXUS63 KTOP 211900
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
200 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WITH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK
- NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, FOLLOWED
BY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT REMAINS PARKED OFF
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
THE AREA THIS MORNING HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST, LEAVING DRY, SUNNY, AND
WARM CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE
70S. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES APPROACHING CROSSOVER THRESHOLDS
COULD YIELD PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME CLOUD
COVER OVERHEAD AND MODEST WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WHICH COULD
PRECLUDE DEVELOPMENT. ANY FOG IS LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO LOW-LYING
AREAS AND WOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY, KEEPING DRY AND UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES.
A SLOWER EJECTION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE THE THEME
AMONG GUIDANCE; IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN FAR
ENOUGH WEST TO KEEP THE SURFACE FRONT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA FOR
SUNDAY, CREATING ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY FINALLY EJECTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA. GUIDANCE VARIES IN SPEED
OF THE WAVE AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE
WAVE PUSHES EAST AND THE COLD FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH THE AREA. STILL
SEEING LARGE SPREADS (15 DEGREES BETWEEN NBM 25TH-75TH PERCENTILES)
IN POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
BUT TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED TO COOL BACK NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS
FOR LATE OCTOBER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
FOG OVERNIGHT GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
CROSSOVER THRESHOLDS. GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIGNAL FOR AT LEAST SOME
CLOUD COVERAGE, WHICH COULD LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT. HAVE HELD OFF
ON INSERTING A FOG MENTION FOR NOW.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FLANAGAN
AVIATION...FLANAGAN
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