682
FXUS63 KTOP 220758
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
258 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
- NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN (30-70%) COMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES FOCUSED IN NORTH CENTRAL KS.
- TEMPERATURES MODERATE NEXT WEEK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS EARLY THIS
MORNING WHILE THE CLOSED LOW SLOWLY MOVES ONSHORE OF THE CA
COASTLINE. AS A RESULT, SFC HIGH PRESSURE LEAVES CLEAR SKIES
OVERHEAD WITH LIGHT WINDS FOR MANY LOCATIONS, ALTHOUGH SOME (NAMELY
CNK) ARE STAYING BETTER MIXED THAN OTHERS. SO FAR THE RIVER VALLEY
AT TOP HAS BEEN THE MAIN SPOT IN OUR CWA THAT HAS OBSERVED SHALLOW
GROUND FOG, AND WOULD EXPECT FOG LIKE THIS TO BE CONFINED TO THE
TYPICAL LOW-LYING SPOTS MORE PRONE TO IT, KEEPING IT ISOLATED AND
PATCHY. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF SOON AFTER SUNRISE WITH ANOTHER WARM
DAY ON TAP. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD TODAY INTO FRIDAY,
AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER MIXING TODAY SHOULD ALSO AID IN TEMPERATURES
BEING A TOUCH WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE INTO
FRIDAY THANKS TO A LEE SFC TROUGH TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM, BRINGING GUSTS TO 25-35MPH ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. ASSUMING OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO VERIFY AROUND
THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF GUIDANCE (NO REASON TO EXPECT DIFFERENTLY
WITH THIS SETUP), MOST PLACES SHOULD MANAGE TO REACH THE LOW 80S
EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY AS WELL.
MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THE
TROUGH'S EASTWARD PROGRESSION SLOW ENOUGH TO BRING THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME ON MONDAY. IT'S STILL EARLY FOR
THE NAM, BUT IT IS A NOTABLE OUTLIER IN THAT IT STARTS TO BRING THE
BOUNDARY INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHER GUIDANCE HAS THE FRONT
NEARBY, BUT KEEPS IT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND STALLS IT UNTIL
MONDAY. THERE ARE STILL ENOUGH DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND SPEED OF
THE FRONT THAT WIDE TEMPERATURE RANGES REMAIN MONDAY ONWARD. STILL,
THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S BEHIND THE
FRONT AND MODERATING CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH MID-WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT BEGIN IN NORTH CENTRAL KS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD EAST INTO MONDAY, BUT REMAIN HIGHEST IN THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA (30-70%). SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
TUESDAY MORNING IF THE UPPER TROUGH IS STILL SLOWER TO PROGRESS EAST
BY THAT TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
OPTED TO KEEP OUT ANY MENTION OF SHALLOW GROUND FOG AS CONFIDENCE
STILL WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD, BUT IF IT DOES OCCUR, THE RIVER
VALLEY AT TOP WOULD BE THE PRIME SPOT FOR IT. IT ALSO SEEMS THAT THE
TIME WINDOW FOR REACHING CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES WOULD BE RATHER
SHORT, WHICH IS ANOTHER REASON TO LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT PICK BACK UP FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD PREVAIL UNDER 10 KTS.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...PICHA
AVIATION...PICHA
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