270
FXUS63 KTOP 221846
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
146 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WITH ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN COMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES (30-50%) ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
- TEMPERATURES TREND CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 146 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS AND A CLOSED
LOW SLOWLY MOVING EAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS REMAIN THE RULE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS NEAR 80 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS ON THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. GOOD MIXING AND SOUTH WINDS
GUSTING AT 20-30 MPH WILL BE OFFSET TO SOME DEGREE BY PASSING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS, WITH THE NET RESULT BEING ANOTHER DAY OF HIGHS
AROUND 80 DEGREES.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH, AS
NOW THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN FARTHER NORTH
WHICH SLOWS THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. IN
ADDITION, MORE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE LIFTING THE SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY FARTHER NORTH, KEEPING THE COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND HIGHS ABOVE-NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. CONFIDENCE HAS
DECREASED IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ESPECIALLY WITH EASTERN EXTENT
GIVEN THE SLOWER AND MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. CENTRAL
KANSAS HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCES (30-50%) AT SEEING SOME RAIN/STORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. STILL EXPECT SOME COOLER AIR
TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM, BUT EXACTLY HOW COOL REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. LARGE SPREADS PERSIST (15 DEGREES BETWEEN NBM 25TH-75TH
PERCENTILES) IN POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK, BUT SHOULD BE CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS BEHIND
THE SYSTEM.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KTS FROM THE SOUTH NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. THINK
THE FOG POTENTIAL IS LOWER TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT GIVEN STRONGER
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FLANAGAN
AVIATION...FLANAGAN
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