294
FXUS63 KTOP 231701
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1201 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND WARM FALL CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
BEST CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS (30-50%).
- MOSTLY DRY WEATHER BUILDS IN FOLLOWING MONDAY WITH CHANCES FOR
RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO FALL BACK CLOSER TO
AVERAGE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS RIDGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS JUST AHEAD OF A NEGITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS LED TO AMPLE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE ROCKIES AND DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH
UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FILTERING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD KEEPING DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. EXPECT HIGHS EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S WITH LOWS EACH MORNING IN
THE MID 50S.
CHANGES IN THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS THE WESTERN TROUGH BEGINS TO EJECT OFF THE COLORADO
ROCKIES. MID-LEVEL LIFT PAIRED WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SHOULD
INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IN THOSE AREAS INTO MONDAY MORNING. BEST
CHANCES TO SEE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS FAR CENTRAL KANSAS
(30-50%) WITH CHANCES DECREASING AS YOU HEAD TOWARDS FAR EASTERN
KANSAS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSAGE TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BRING
AN END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW PASSES OFF TO
OUR NORTH AND EAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS
WEAK FRONT SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR-AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER. BY THE
LATER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK, LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO BRING IN
A FEW MORE TROUGHS FROM THE WEST COAST. THERE IS STILL SOME TIMING
AND LOCATION DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS AT THIS TIME, BUT GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS FOR A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN BY LATE NEXT WEEK THAT SHOULD
RETURN LOW-END POPS TO EASTERN KANSAS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
VFR AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WIND
THIS AFTERNOON.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GRIESEMER
AVIATION...JONES
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