071
FXUS63 KTOP 232234
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
534 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, WITH GREATEST COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL KANSAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
A MATURE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS
AFTERNOON, WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW LINGERS OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST AND SLOWLY INCHES EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE, WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EAST WITH A LEE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS, SUPPORTING A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME ACROSS
THE AREA. THE RESULTING AIRMASS IS WARM AND DRY FOR LATE
OCTOBER, AND MIXING TO NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IN
MOST LOCATIONS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY REMAIN DOMINATED BY THE RIDGE AND A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY BREEZE, YIELDING CONTINUED WARM AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
HIGHS BOTH DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 80 DEGREES IN MUCH OF
THE AREA, WITH ONLY MODEST DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION TIED TO CLOUD
COVER. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY
AS THE UPSTREAM TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, BUT FORCING AND DEEPER MOISTURE APPEAR
INSUFFICIENT FOR MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION DURING THE
DAYTIME SUNDAY. ANY SHOWERS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WOULD LIKELY REMAIN ISOLATED AND CONFINED TO FAR
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING THE TIMING AND PROGRESSION
OF THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, AND
THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO REPRESENT THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE.
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE STILL FAVOR A RELATIVELY SLOW
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH, WITH THE SURFACE FRONT
STALLING NEAR OR JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY
BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD FIRST INCREASE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
(REPUBLIC, CLOUD, CLAY, RILEY, DICKINSON, GEARY) SUNDAY EVENING AS
DEEPER ASCENT AND MOISTURE ARRIVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. COVERAGE THERE
IS MOST LIKELY TO REACH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
LIGHT THUNDERSTORMS, WHILE AREAS FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH SEE LOWER
PROBABILITIES AND MORE HIT-OR-MISS ACTIVITY. GIVEN MODEST INSTABILITY
AND LIMITED MOISTURE DEPTH, CURRENT EVIDENCE SUPPORTS MAINLY LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS, WITH HEAVIER TOTALS AND ANY STRONGER
STORMS DISPLACED TO AREAS FARTHER SOUTHWEST WHERE BETTER OVERLAP OF
FORCING AND MOISTURE EXISTS.
BY MONDAY, THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA, SHIFTING SHOWER CHANCES INTO EAST-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST KANSAS BEFORE TAPERING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD FALL BACK INTO THE 60S BEHIND
THE FRONT AND LOW 70S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH
MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND ANY LINGERING SHOWERS FURTHER LIMITING
DIURNAL WARMING. EXACT FRONTAL TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN, SO THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN WARM PRE-FRONTAL AND COOLER POST-FRONTAL
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL SHIFT IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 534 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS OVERNIGHT
INCREASE TO AROUND 10KTS BY LATE MORNING SATURDAY.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JONES
AVIATION...FLANAGAN
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