022
FXUS63 KTOP 241123
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
623 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND WARM THROUGH SUNDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES (20-50%) RETURN ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
- LOW-END CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION (20%) CONTINUES OFF AN ON
THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT MOST WILL REMAIN DRY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAVE OCCURRED OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST/4-CORNERS REGION. ANOTHER WAVE TIED IN CLOSER WITH THE
POLAR JET HAS TRIED TO PHASE IN WITH THE SOUTHERN CYCLONE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES BUT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OFF INTO THE NORTHERN
US AND SOUTHERN CANADA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SHOULD LEAVE THE
SOUTHERN CYCLONE CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW. A SLOW EAST-WARD
PROGRESSION OF THE SOUTHERN CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH AMPLE UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FILTERING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CIRRUS DECKS TODAY AND SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES UNDER THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.
BY SUNDAY EVENING, THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW EJECTS OFF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SHOULD PUSH DECENT MID-
LEVEL AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
INCREASING POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITHIN PRECIPITATION MONDAY MORNING
THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER, BUT OVERALL, RAIN SHOWERS
ARE THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION MODE. AREAS ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS
WILL LIKELY NOT SEE TOO MANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
WAVE AS ASCENT SHOULD STAY WEST AND THEN NORTH OF THESE AREAS.
BY TUESDAY AND FOLLOWING MONDAY'S UPPER CYCLONE NORTHERN PASSAGE,
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. SOME SCATTERED
NODES OF VORTICITY EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING AND WITH THE PRESENCE OF A 30 KNOT LLJ, SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION COULD BE NOTED ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. FORCING SHOULD
QUICKLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY LEAVING MOST OF THE AREA DRY. THE END
OF THE WEEK WILL SEE SIMILAR SET UPS FOR PRECIPITATION AS WEAK
FORCING ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW KEEP LOW END POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY (<20%). AN UPPER LOW PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA SHOULD TRY
TO PUSH A WEAK BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEEK AS WELL THAT
COULD AGAIN BE A BETTER FOCAL POINT FOR PRECIPITATION. LONG RANGE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF OCTOBER SEEMS TO HINT AT
ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW KEEPS WAA LIKELY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS, BUT
THIS PATTERN SEEMS VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH TYPICAL EL NINO CONDITIONS
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WINTER MONTHS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
VFR TAFS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. WIND GUSTS MAY CREEP IN BY THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW 20 MPH.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GRIESEMER
AVIATION...GRIESEMER
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