426
FXUS63 KTOP 250728
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
228 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER WARM AND MOSTLY DRY DAY TODAY BEFORE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
- WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S.
- LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN (20-40%) WILL EXIST ON MOST DAYS THIS WEEK BUT
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN TERMS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
THE CENTRAL US CONTINUES TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE SITUATED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. FURTHER
NORTH, THE MAIN JET STREAM CONNECTS TWO UPPER LOWS; ONE ACROSS THE
PNW AND THE OTHER APPROACHING THE HUDSON BAY. BACK ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AS COMPACT UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING KEEPS THE REGION WARM. WITH WAA WITHIN THIS PATTERN EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TODAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN CREEP BACK INTO THE
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S AS BROKEN DECKS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS STREAM
IN ACROSS KANSAS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE SURFACE
CYCLONE AND INVERTED TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS IN
RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER CYCLONE. THIS
SHOULD SHIFT A GOOD FOCAL POINT OF LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
MID-LEVEL ASCENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE EXPECTED WITHIN A NARROW CORRIDOR INTO MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL KS WITH CHANCES QUICKLY
WANING AS ONE HEADS EAST OF HWY 81. MOST AREAS STAY DRY MONDAY WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS NEAR THE HWY 81 CORRIDOR. SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES (20-30%) DO NOT SEEM TO SHIFT INTO EASTERN
KANSAS UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE FINALLY
EJECTS OFF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ACROSS NEBRASKA. A WEAK COLD
FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY YIELDING LOW-END POPS (20-40%)
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPS (LOW TO MID 70S).
BY WEDNESDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CONUS. SEVERAL NODES OF VORTICITY EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING LOW-END POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF OCTOBER. THAT SAID, NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN TERMS OF
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
VFR TAFS CONTINUE OVER THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. A WEAK BOUNDARY MAY
SHIFTS WINDS AROUND AT KMHK THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY
BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD RETURN BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH SOME RAIN
CHANCES APPROACHING KMHK BY THE LATE PERIOD. BEST CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIPITATION REMAINS WEST OF KMHK SO KEPT OUT MENTION AT THIS TIME.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...GRIESEMER
AVIATION...GRIESEMER
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