569
FGUS74 KSHV 171751
ESFSHV
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1251 PM CDT THU OCT 17 2024
...NATIONAL WATER PREDICTION SERVICE (NWPS) LONG RANGE
PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK FOR THE NECHES RIVER BASIN OF EAST TEXAS...
IN THE TABLE BELOW, THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS DURING
THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE, FOR THE MUD CREEK NEAR JACKSONVILLE
TEXAS, THE FLOOD STAGE IS 9 FEET. THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THE
MUD CREEK WILL RISE ABOVE 7.2 FEET DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID FOR OCTOBER 17, 2024 THROUGH JANUARY 14, 2025
LOCATION FS 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
------------------ -- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
MUD CREEK
JACKSONVILLE 7E 9 1.8 3.8 5.9 6.9 7.2 7.5 8.4 9.0 9.9
EAST FORK ANGELINA RIVER
CUSHING 4N 15 9.2 10.3 11.8 13.8 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.7 16.2
ANGELINA RIVER
ALTO 8E 29 11.2 12.9 16.6 17.9 19.7 21.7 25.2 26.7 28.2
ATTOYAC BAYOU
CHIRENO 3E 14 5.8 7.9 9.7 12.5 14.9 17.3 18.0 19.6 20.9
AYISH BAYOU
SAN AUGUSTINE 10S 12 6.8 9.5 9.9 10.6 10.8 12.6 13.0 13.6 14.6
NECHES RIVER
NECHES 4NE 12 3.3 3.4 4.4 7.1 8.4 11.1 12.7 13.7 15.2
ALTO 8SW 16 4.3 5.8 7.0 8.6 9.9 11.2 13.3 15.5 17.5
DIBOLL 4S 12 2.6 6.1 8.3 11.0 12.0 13.0 13.8 14.2 15.2
ROCKLAND 26 5.5 7.4 8.9 10.3 13.1 14.6 16.2 21.2 25.1
LOCATION 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
------------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
LK PALESTINE 343.8 344.0 344.1 344.4 344.7 345.0 345.3 345.7 346.2
THIS LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK USES PROBABILITIES
COMPUTED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 60 YEARS OF HISTORICAL
CLIMATOLOGICAL AND STREAM FLOW DATA. THESE PROBABILITIES ALSO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT RIVER FLOWS AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS, THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE
DETERMINED.
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATIONS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT THIS URL: HTTPS://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/WFO/SHV (INTERNET
ADDRESS URL IS ALL LOWER CASE).
LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED DURING THE THIRD
THURSDAY OF EVERY MONTH.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page