165
FXUS64 KSHV 221833
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
133 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
..NEW UPDATE, DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
- HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND VERY WARM
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES PERSIST.
- A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL POSE THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS.
- A PATTERN CHANGE TOWARDS LATE WEEK MAY BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER
HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER CHANCES FOR BENEFICIAL RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A FAIRLY HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES, EXTENDING THROUGH MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST,
THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND INTO MEXICO. UPSTREAM FROM THIS
FEATURE EXISTS A FAIRLY ROBUST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE PNW
COAST, WHILE DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE BROAD TROUGHING EXISTS
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE MIDWEST AND EASTERN US. NEAR THE
SURFACE, THE LATEST WPC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS SE
OK AND ALONG THE AR/LA BORDER AND INTO MS/AL, WITH A COOL FRONT
PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TOWARDS NORTHERN AR AS
AN EXPANSIVE 1026MB HIGH FILTERS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
AND UPPER MS VALLEY.
THE PATTERN DESCRIBED ABOVE PLACES THE FOUR STATE REGION ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, WHERE SOME
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE COULD STILL BE AT WORK, BUT IT ALSO OPENS
TO THE AREA INTO A NW FLOW PATTERN, WHERE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES CAN BE DETECTED WITHIN THIS BROAD FLOW. THIS ALWAYS
MAKES FOR A CHALLENGING FORECAST IN REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL/COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA. MEANWHILE, BOUNDARIES NEAR THE
SURFACE OFTEN SERVE AS A CATALYST FOR CONVECTION WITHIN A WARM AND
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT, IN WHICH CASE MULTIPLE EITHER EXIST OR ARE
PUSHING INTO THE AREA. FOR THE REST OF TODAY, EXPECT HOT
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 100S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105
AND 110 DEGREES. ALL HEAT PRECAUTIONS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE
EXERCISED. CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE TRICKY TO
FORECAST. A DECAYING COMPLEX ACROSS OK WILL LARGELY DIMINISH AS
IT CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE AREA. DESPITE THIS, GIVEN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL RATES, ISOLATED SINGLE-CELL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
CARRY A THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. ALSO LATER THIS AFTERNOON, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS EASTERN AR, ALONG WITH THE THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS IS GENERATE A
MODERATELY ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION, MOST OF WHICH WILL REMAIN
EAST OF THE AREA ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AR, HOWEVER ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP WESTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN AR AND NORTHERN LA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE NOTICEABLY HIGHER ON SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS LA AND AR
WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE 1-5 DEGREES COOLER ON SUNDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
90S TO LOWER 100S SO HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL STILL REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THEREFORE, THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED AREA-WIDE
FOR SUNDAY. CONVECTIVE CHANCES APPEAR MORE LIMITED FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NUDGES SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST.
STILL CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING CONVECTION GIVEN THE RESIDUAL COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND DAYTIME HEATING. ANY CONVECTION WILL POSE A THREAT FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE WINDS BRIEFLY. OF GREATER CONCERN LATE SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION MOVING
THROUGH THE NW FLOW OVER AR, WHICH HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
COULD GENERATE ANOTHER SEMI-ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SHOULD THIS COMPLEX DEVELOP, IT MAY BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR
WIDER-SPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. PLACEMENT, TIMING, AND
EXTENT OF THIS CONVECTION REMAINS A CHALLENGE TO FORECAST, BUT
CERTAINLY BEARS MONITORING IN THE NEAR-TERM.
MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS MOVES THE RIDGE BACK
EAST SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CONCERN FOR HEAT-RELATED
IMPACTS AS WELL AS CONTINUE THE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE
AREA. WHILE MANY PEOPLE WILL NOT HAVE ENJOYED READING THAT, THERE
ALSO REMAINS RATHER SOLID CONSENSUS IN ANOTHER RETROGRESSION OF
THE RIDGE BY MID-WEEK, WHICH MAY OFFER SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
CONVECTION.
CK
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS AN ELEVATED CLOUD DECK DEVELOPS FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. RECENT MODELS HAVE PULLED BACK ON
CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ENOUGH TO BE REMOVED FROM THIS
PACKAGE, BUT SOME POP-UPS CAN'T BE RULED OUT. APART FROM VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR WITH THESE
SHOWERS. WINDS WILL LARGELY BE LIGHT/VARIABLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MODELS HAVE STARTED TO FOCUS ON CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
NORTHEAST TX AND SOUTHWEST AR THIS EVENING AND PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON BOTH EXACT TIMING
AND LOCATIONS OF IMPACTS, BUT MOST SITES SHOULD AT LEAST EXPECT VCTS
FROM 23/00Z THROUGH 23/06Z. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS IN ADDITION TO THE TYPICAL HAZARDS. ONCE CONVECTION
DISSIPATES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WITH SOME
LINGERING ELEVATED CIGS WILL CARRY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
/57/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 79 103 80 102 / 20 30 10 10
MLU 75 101 77 97 / 10 30 10 30
DEQ 72 101 74 102 / 30 20 10 0
TXK 75 102 77 102 / 30 20 10 0
ELD 74 100 74 97 / 50 30 10 20
TYR 80 105 81 105 / 10 10 10 0
GGG 78 105 80 104 / 10 20 10 0
LFK 77 103 77 101 / 0 10 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...57
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