641
FXUS64 KSHV 191807
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
107 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
- WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
- A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BACKDOOR ITS WAY INTO OUR REGION ON
MONDAY HELPING TO TEMPER TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BUT THAT COOL
DOWN WON'T LAST LONG WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING AGAIN BY
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
- WITH NO PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT
7 DAYS, WILDFIRE CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE GROWING THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL YET DRY DAY ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION AFTER
WE LOST THE MORNING MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED TO NEAR 70 DEGREES ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH THE AID OF
SOUTHWEST WINDS. NOT SEEING THE GUSTS TO 25KTS LIKE WE WERE SEEING
AT THIS TIME ON WEDNESDAY THOUGH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20KTS WERE NOTED
AS OF LATE MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE TX.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, THE BOUNDARY LAYER PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO RETURN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, AT LEAST TO OUR
SOUTHERN THIRD AND I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LOW CLOUD COVER
IMPENDING ON THE I-20 CORRIDOR FRIDAY MORNING BUT THE SUN WILL WIN
OVER WITH THE FIRST OF OUR WARM DAYS PLANNED WITH HIGHS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S.
UPPER RIDGING CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GREAT BASIN
WILL SLOWLY INCH ITS WAY TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY
AND INTO SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY AND
AS A RESULT, HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL RANGE FROM NEAR
90 TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST HALF WHICH WILL APPROACH
RECORD HIGHS FOR LATE MARCH. ALL OTHER REGIONS SHOULD CLIMB TO AT
LEAST THE UPPER 80S THIS WEEKEND. DESPITE WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO
OUR WEST BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OVERTOP THE RIDGE DURING THIS
PERIOD AND THERE WILL BE A SURFACE REFLECTION TO THIS FEATURE IN
THE FORM OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT
TO BACKDOOR ITS WAY INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE TO SUGGEST IT WILL MOVE COMPLETELY THROUGH
OUR REGION. GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTING A SLIGHT COOL DOWN BEHIND THIS
FEATURE CONCERNING HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY BUT TEMPERATURES
REBOUND AGAIN BY TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK
WITH THE AID OF RETURNING SOUTHERLY WINDS. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
MAY APPROACH THE REGION AT THE END OF THIS 7-DAY FORECAST CYCLE
BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD ON THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY AND JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THIS COOLER AIRMASS
COULD MAKE IT INTO OUR REGION TOWARDS THE VERY END OF NEXT WEEK.
UNTIL THEN, THESE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WIND SPEEDS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GO ALONG WITH DRY
FUELS WILL KEEP THE WILDFIRE THREAT ELEVATED THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.
13
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
FOR THE 19/18Z TAF PERIOD, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS OUR
AIRSPACE FOR NEARLY ALL SITES WITH SKC THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CIRRUS
AND MID-LEVEL ALTOCU WILL LIKELY INCREASE FROM THE N/NW LATER IN THE
PERIOD, AND SOME STRATUS MAY ALSO IMPACT OUR EAST TX TERMINALS AS WE
APPROACH DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH
RESPECT TO THE EXTENT AND DURATION OF COVERAGE SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
MVFR CIGS AT KLFK FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, BREEZY S/SW WINDS PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH 19/00Z BEFORE DROPPING OFF TO LESS THAN 10 KTS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 10-15 KTS
ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS MIXING BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED, RESULTING IN
SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
/19/
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ELEVATED WILDFIRE THREAT ACROSS MOST
OF THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS IS DUE
IN PART TO ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WHICH HAS RESULTED IN VERY
DRY FUELS, THE WARMING TREND TEMPERATURE WISE AND SUSTAINED SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH. THESE
CONDITIONS AND THUS, THE ELEVATED WILDFIRE THREAT WILL BECOME
MAXIMIZED DURING THE LATE MORNING AND ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON HOURS
DURING PEAK HEATING. THEREFORE, THE CURRENT FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
IN PLACE ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION TODAY WILL BE EXTENDED INTO
FRIDAY.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME BUT THE WILDFIRE
THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FOUR STATE
REGION DUE TO THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. PLEASE REPORT ANY
WILDFIRE ACTIVITY TO YOUR LOCAL FIRE DEPARTMENT AND OTHER LOCAL
OFFICIALS.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 57 85 60 87 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 54 85 59 88 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 51 85 54 89 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 58 86 61 90 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 54 85 58 88 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 58 87 61 91 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 57 86 59 90 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 54 84 59 87 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...19
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