952
FXUS64 KSHV 011909
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
209 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
- A COUPLE OF ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. A SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.
- A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AREA, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
MINEOLA TX, TO SHREVEPORT, TO MONROE LA, TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
- DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK DOWN INTO THE 80S FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, BUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS PROVIDING
SUBSIDENCE AND KEEPING ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE TODAY.
AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING JUST SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA
STATE LINE AS OF 18Z. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRYING
TO DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, BUT THE 18Z
KSHV RAOB SHOWS WEAK CAPPING REMAINS OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER,
WE'RE ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES SHY OF REACHING OUR CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE WITH AT LEAST TWO OR THREE HOURS OF DIURNAL HEATING TO
GO. ONCE THE CAP FULLY ERODES, THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE
A FOCUS FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN
ADDITION, ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ACROSS
ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI MAY ALLOW FOR MORE CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT. STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY DURING THE NIGHT AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY WANES. HOWEVER,
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE
WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT, AS THE ENVIRONMENT IS QUITE
SUPPORTIVE OF DOWNBURSTS/MICROBURSTS.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY
STRONG, BUT A WEAK PERTURBATION ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT FOR A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
BROKEN BOW, TO TEXARKANA, TO MONROE. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY
SHOULD BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 IN LOUISIANA AND EAST TEXAS WHERE
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST AND WHERE
THE FRONT'S ARRIVAL WILL BE LATEST. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE VERY
WEAK BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
AND ANY REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD RESULT IN AN
ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD EXIT TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT ALSO MOVES COMPLETELY SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND BEGINS NEXT WEEK. LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, UPPER
RIDGING WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WHILE A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OFF THE CAROLINAS. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BRING RICH STREAM OF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE DIFFICULTY IN THIS PATTERN IS THE LACK OF ANY SURFACE
FRONT OR FOCUS MECHANISM TO ORGANIZE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THUS,
CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH THAT WE'LL HAVE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE RAIN CHANCES IS
DIFFICULT TO PREDICT AT THIS TIME RANGE. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BROAD BRUSH WIDESPREAD POPS, WHICH IS ABOUT THE BEST
PLAY FOR NOW. HOWEVER, GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD
GENERALLY BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH PEAK
DIURNAL INSTABILITY, AND THE BEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD GENERALLY
BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND EAST TEXAS VERTICAL ASCENT WILL
BE GREATEST DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER TROUGHS.
NUTTALL
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
FOR THE 01/18Z TAF UPDATE, VFR VIS/CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME MVFR EXCEPTIONS TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD: A ROUND OF VCTS/-TSRA BY 02/02Z-02/14Z WITH SOME PATCHY
FG POTENTIAL BY 02/12Z-15Z. LIGHT TO VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. /16/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
WHILE AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH
TONIGHT, SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 75 94 71 88 / 20 20 20 0
MLU 74 91 70 86 / 30 30 10 10
DEQ 72 91 66 85 / 10 20 0 0
TXK 73 94 68 88 / 10 10 0 0
ELD 72 89 66 84 / 30 10 0 0
TYR 74 96 72 89 / 20 30 30 0
GGG 74 95 71 88 / 20 30 30 0
LFK 74 94 72 89 / 20 40 30 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...09
AVIATION...16
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