348
FXUS64 KSHV 140248
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
948 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 922 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2025
AS OF 9:30 PM CDT, A ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD DECK REMAINS OVER
THE AREA AHEAD OF SUBSTANTIAL TROUGHING ENTERING THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. AFTER A DAY OF RECORD HIGHS, TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY REMAIN
IN THE LOWER 70S AND WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS PICKING UP SPEED, MINIMUMS
WILL NOT FALL MUCH FURTHER AS A RESULT (FALLING INTO THE LOWER
60S). WITH WEATHER AND OBSERVED TRENDS CONTINUING AS ANTICIPATED,
FORECAST GRID ADJUSTMENTS WERE NOT NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. /16/
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2025
OFFICIALLY, WE HAVE BROKEN THE RECORD WITH 89 HERE AT SHREVEPORT
REGIONAL, WHICH WAS FIRST SET BACK IN 1918 CIRCA WW1. WE WILL SEE
IF WE HIT 90. OTHER READINGS VARY FROM 79 IN DEQUEEN AND MOSTLY
LOW TO MID 80S WITH LIGHTER S/SW WINDS AND ONLY TEEN GUSTS BEING
THE REASON ALONG WITH THE SUN ON DRY SOIL. DEW POINTS HAVE
SCOURED DOWN A GOOD BIT OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. THE CLOUDS DO LOOK
TO THICKEN TONIGHT, BUT WE SHOULD STILL SEE SOME STARS IN THE
USUALLY DARKER SKY OF AN ECLIPSED FULL MOON. LOWS IN THE MORNING
MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S AND THEN HIGHS TOMORROW GENERALLY LOWER
80S, BUT LOWERING RH AND GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THE BIG STORM
APPROACHING. MORE ON THE ELEVATED FIRE CONCERN AND POTENTIAL
BLOWING DUST AND OR POLLEN BELOW. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INITIATE RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE MOISTURE OVER E TX AND SE OK
AROUND LUNCHTIME, INTENSIFYING AS THEY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
DEEPER MOISTURE. SO SOME NEEDED RAIN IS ALWAYS WELCOMED WHEN THE
SOIL DRIES OUT AND ESPECIALLY THE WINDY AIR. THE LINE CONTINUES TO
EVOLVE, BUT ESSENTIALLY PROGRESSES OUT OF OUR AREA LATE DAY. /24/
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2025
SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE SEMI-ONGOING WITH CONVECTION TO START THE
DAY, WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FIRING AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER E
TX AND MUCH OF THE ARKLATEX WITH THE SPC DAY 3 UPDATE DRAWN MUCH
FARTHER WEST INTO OUR AREA CWA NOW. SO WHILE RAIN IS WELCOMED,
BUT OTHER THINGS RELATED WHICH ARE NOT MAY GET BUSY EARLY
DEPENDING ON SKY AND INSTABILITY EARLY IN THE DAY. ALL SEVERE
MODES WILL BE ON THE TABLE WITH RICH MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR
INCREASING ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. EVEN THE SLIGHT RISK
NOW INCLUDES THE WESTERN SHORE OF TOLEDO BEND AND MUCH OF THE
PARISHES, UP TO EL DORADO IN UNION COUNTY. THE ENHANCED RISK IS
WHERE THE SLIGHT WAS WITH A MODERATE RISK NOW OVER THE BOOT HEAL
OF LASALLE. SO A BUSY AND PERHAPS BUMPY DAY WILL EVENTUALLY YET
UNFOLD. THE CORE PARENT LOW CLIMBING THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVERNIGHT
WHILE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AT 520DAM WITH PARALLEL SW FLOW
OVERHEAD. THE BASE OF THE H500 TROUGH MOVES OVER OUR THREE STATES
BY SUNSET AND ON ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI. FROM THEIR THE NEXT BIG
SYNOPTIC TROUGH IS STILL ON COURSE FOR MIDWEEK WITH STILL LACK
LUSTER POPS. THE SPRING TEMPS CONTINUE WITH MOST DAYS WAY ABOVE
AVERAGE ON ONLY SUNDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE NORM. /24/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2025
FOR THE 14/00Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING WHILE A HIGH CLOUD DECK THICKENS AND
SPREADS EAST OUT OF TEXAS AIRSPACE. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE NIGHT, REPLACING THE DRY AIR WHICH HAS DOMINATED TODAY, AND
DESCENDING CEILINGS LOOK TO MANIFEST AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES,
REFLECTED AT AREA TERMINALS BY 14/12Z. THIS CEILINGS LOOK TO LIFT
GRADUALLY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH UPPER MVFR TO LOWER VFR
BY MIDDAY. GUIDANCE REFLECTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS TO
KMLU. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY BREEZY THROUGH THE NIGHT
AT SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS, INCREASING INTO THE DAY TOMORROW AT
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 30 KTS
POSSIBLE.
/26/
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2025
THE DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO MIX QUICKLY EAST INTO EAST TEXAS AND
MCCURTAIN COUNTY OKLAHOMA BY LATE MORNING FRIDAY, TO NEAR OR
JUST W OF THE TX/LA LINE INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MIN RH'S RANGING FROM 20-35% NEAR AND WEST OF THE
DRY LINE ACROSS MUCH OF E TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SECTIONS OF SW AR, WITH
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING IN STRONG SW WINDS OF 15-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACROSS THESE AREAS. THUS, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
OVER THESE AREAS, WITH A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS.
WHILE SOME GREENUP HAS BEGUN OVER THIS AREA, DORMANT GRASSES LINGER WHICH
WILL PROVIDE AMPLE FUEL FOR THE IGNITION AND POTENTIAL SPREAD OF ANY
WILDFIRES GIVEN THE EXPECTED LOW RH'S AND GUSTY SW WINDS. FARTHER E OVER
DEEP E TX/N LA/SCNTRL AR, THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL REMAIN MINIMAL
GIVEN THE HIGHER RH'S AND SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND SPEEDS. GOOD RH RECOVERY
IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH THE WINDS DECOUPLING, THUS ENDING THE
ENHANCED FIRE DANGER. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 62 82 61 77 / 0 20 20 20
MLU 61 80 64 76 / 0 30 40 60
DEQ 56 81 49 72 / 0 20 10 20
TXK 61 83 58 76 / 0 20 10 20
ELD 56 80 59 76 / 0 30 30 30
TYR 63 84 57 75 / 0 0 10 0
GGG 60 83 57 76 / 0 10 20 10
LFK 62 83 60 77 / 0 10 10 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...26
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