970
FXUS64 KSHV 031132
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
632 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
- NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVAIL ACROSS THE FOUR STATE
REGION.
- THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME STRONG TO SEVERE, WILL
RETURN ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY, POTENTIALLY BRINGING
THE THREAT FOR WIND, HAIL, AND TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING WILL
FEATURE NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS, AS BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ENCOMPASSES THE MAJORITY OF THE US EAST OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE, AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
EAST/NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATION IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL TRAVERSE THE FOUR STATE
REGION SUNDAY MORNING WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW, BUT WILL RESULT
IN NOTHING MORE THAN SOME QUICK-PASSING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS GIVEN THE
ABSENCE OF ABUNDANT AND DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE. THEREAFTER, THE
LOCAL AREA WILL RESIDE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH FEW-SCATTERED
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND QUICK SHIFT IN
WINDS BACK TO THE SW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OFF AROUND 80
DEGREES.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY, CIRRUS/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
QUASI-ZONAL AHEAD OF AN LARGE CLOSED LOW NEAR THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. AS THIS COMMENCES, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST, PRODUCING THE BEGINNING OF A MARKED
RETURN IN GULF MOISTURE AS WINDS BACK TO MORE SOUTHERLY AND HELP
USHER 50S DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE AREA. MONDAY WILL REMAIN DRY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER CONTINUES TO REMAIN PROBABLE BEGINNING
TUESDAY AS PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INDUCE LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE LEE CYCLONE/SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE OK
PANHANDLE, WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES DEVELOPING IN ITS
VICINITY. AS IT TRAVERSES ACROSS OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY,
DEWPOINTS WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH CONVECTION APPEARING POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE WARM
FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES (GENERALLY AROUND AND NORTH OF THE
I-30 CORRIDOR). THIS SETUP IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MODEST CAPE
VALUES OF 1000-1500J/KG AMIDST PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH ARE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.
THE SFC LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE TN VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SFC
WAVES ALONG ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT AS DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 DEGREES RESIDE AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND HELP RESULT IN CLOSER TO 2000 J/KG CAPE (WITH
AMPLE SHEAR). THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE PATTERN THIS WEEK AS
COMPARED TO LAST WEEK'S CHALLENGING SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST IS
THAT THIS WEEK THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER SYNOPTIC SUPPORT. THIS
ACTS TO BOOST CONFIDENCE IN THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK IN AN ALREADY
PRIMED MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS THREAT AND THE EXACT HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS TIMING
AND CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS BECOME A BIT MORE CLEAR CUT IN THE
COMING DAYS.
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE BACK INTO THE REGION, WITH A LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS. WPC ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS ARE ALL
SUGGESTIVE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA, WITH
SW FLOW PREVAILING ON ITS DOWNSTREAM SIDE. NORMALLY THIS WOULD
PROMOTE THE THREAT FOR CONTINUED WIDESPREAD, AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE REGION, HOWEVER, IN THIS CASE IT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW DEEP THE EASTERN US TROUGH DIGS IN THE WAKE OF
OUR FRONTAL PASSAGE. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS LEANING TOWARDS A QUICK RETURN TO RAIN CHANCES
SOMETIME NEAR THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
CK
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
FOR THE 03/12Z TAF PERIOD, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC.
MOSTLY SKC CONTINUES ASIDE FROM SOME SCATTERED ALTOCUMULUS AT A
FEW SITES THIS MORNING THAT WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO MORE FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS BY MIDDAY ALONG WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATER
IN THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE, EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO NEAR CALM
WINDS THROUGH 03/15Z, THEN BECOMING SW BETWEEN 5-10 KTS FOR MUCH
OF THE REMAINING PERIOD ALONG WITH SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS
NEAR 15-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AT KGGG/KTYR/KTXK.
/19/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 80 58 81 65 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 81 56 82 61 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 79 53 79 61 / 0 0 0 10
TXK 82 58 82 66 / 0 0 0 10
ELD 80 54 80 61 / 0 0 0 10
TYR 79 58 80 67 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 80 56 80 65 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 80 55 82 65 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...19
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