738
FXUS64 KSHV 140615 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
115 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
- A DECAYING COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK THIS MORNING WILL FOCUS
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS, SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS, AND POSSIBLY
PORTIONS OF NORTH LOUISIANA LATER TODAY.
- ISOLATED STRONG STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON
OVER EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA, WITH ADDITIONAL
REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT DRIFTS INTO THE AREA AND BECOMES STATIONARY.
- MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. THE RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES, WHICH
MAY RESULT IN A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF
EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
CURRENTLY WATCHING THE ONGOING MCS OVER NE OK/EXTREME NW AR ATTM
AS IT GUSTS SE, ALONG THE BASE OF A SHORTWAVE PERTURBATION EVIDENT
IN THE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS OVER THIS AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TRAVERSING SE INTO NRN AR THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF
THIS MCS OVER ERN OK/WRN AR REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF
2000-2500 J/KG WHILE SUPPORTED BY EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 35KTS,
ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AXIS DOES BEGIN TO WANE FARTHER
S INTO SE OK/WRN AR S OF FSM AND THUS, A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND
IS EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK AS IT IS TIMED TO REACH NRN MCCURTAIN
COUNTY OK AND ADJACENT SW AR BETWEEN 9-10Z. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS
OF THE HRRR AS WELL AS THE LATEST 00Z HREF REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH
OVERALL TIMING/MOVEMENT, WITH THE LEAD GUST FRONT LIKELY REACHING
THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF E TX/NW LA BY LATE MORNING WITH THE ATTENDANT
CONVECTION DIMINISHING WITH SWD EXTENT. GIVEN ITS FORWARD
MOMENTUM, THE BNDRY APPEARS PROBABLY TO MIX AS FAR S AS DEEP E TX
INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL LA THIS AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY INTERACTING
WITH A NWD MOVING SEABREEZE. THUS, HAVE CONCENTRATED HIGHEST POPS
N OF I-20 MAINLY THIS MORNING, AND ACROSS DEEP E TX/WCNTRL LA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MID TO HIGH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE ESPECIALLY FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH MIN TEMPS NOT FALLING OFF
MUCH MORE OVERNIGHT, DAYTIME TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER/MID
90S ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOWER E TX/N LA COUPLED WITH LOWER/MID 70S
DEWPOINTS SHOULD STILL YIELD ENOUGH INSTABILITY DESPITE THE
WEAKENING SHEAR FOR ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS, BUT WILL ULTIMATELY
BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MESOSCALE BNDRY
FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION AND ITS INFLUENCE WITH THE SEABREEZE.
ALSO OF INTEREST IS A WEAK COOL FRONT ENTERING THE SRN TX PANHANDLE
INTO NW OK EARLY THIS MORNING, WHICH IS BEING CONVECTIVELY
REINFORCED SE VIA 2-4+ MB/2 HOUR PRESSURE RISES, WHICH SHOULD MIX
SE NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING, AND EVENTUALLY
INTO PORTIONS OF EXTREME NE TX/SW AR THIS AFTERNOON.
AS THE MAIN JET BEGINS TO SLOWLY SAG S INTO OK/AR THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT, PVA INCREASING ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT AS IT SETTLES OVER E TX/FAR SRN AR/N LA SHOULD RESULT IN THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER THESE AREAS THAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. OVERALL FORCING DOESN'T LOOK
PARTICULARLY STRONG WITHIN THIS DIRTY FLOW REGIME, BUT THE
ADDITION INFLUX OF ELEVATED PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM NRN OLD MX
INTERACTING WITH THE ALREADY RICH AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS MAY RESULT
IN SOME BANDING OF HEAVIER RAIN IN VC OF THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO ENTRAIN SE ALONG
THE DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH AS IT BEGINS TO PIVOT INTO THE
MIDWEST/MID MS VALLEY. THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
QPF'S OF 1-3 INCHES ESPECIALLY ALONG/S OF I-20 THROUGH TUESDAY,
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 4+ INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE ANY
BANDING DOES OCCUR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT DRYNESS IN SOIL MOISTURE AS WELL AS NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL STREAMFLOW ACROSS AREA RIVERS AND BAYOUS, THESE RAINS
SHOULD BE HANDLED ADEQUATELY ALTHOUGH A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AND THUS, A FLOOD WATCH WILL NOT BE NEEDED
ATTM.
WHILE A WELCOME REPRIEVE TO THE HEAT IS EXPECTED TO START THE NEW
WORK WEEK, TEMPS WILL REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY
ONCE THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONT WASHES OUT, WITH ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION LIKELY LINGERING OVER DEEP E TX/N LA
WHERE THE SEABREEZE REMAINS INFLUENCED BY THE PACIFIC MOISTURE
AXIS RESIDING ALONG THE BASE OF THE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE
VARIOUS GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES REMAIN PERSISTENT THOUGH WITH A
WEAKNESS ALOFT IN VC OF DEEP S TX TUESDAY THAT MAY DRIFT NE ALONG
THE TX COAST DURING THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIMEFRAME, FOCUSING THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THIS AREA OF THE MIDDLE AND
LOWER TX COASTS, BEFORE FOCUSING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER
MUCH OF OUR REGION THURSDAY/FRIDAY. WHILE ANY TROPICAL THREAT
APPEARS LOW ATTM, ITS TAP AND FETCH OF THE WARMER/RICHER WRN GULF
WATERS WILL YIELD AN INCREASING THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN FOR SE TX/SW
LA, WHICH MAY TRANSLATE FARTHER N INTO E TX/N LA DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK AND SPEED OF THIS WEAKNESS ALOFT. STILL TOO SOON TO
SPECULATE ON QPF'S WITH THIS ATTM GIVEN THE WIDE SPREAD IN THE
VARIOUS GUIDANCE, BUT THE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY'S RAINS MAY
PRIME THE SOILS ENOUGH FOR A GREATER POTENTIAL FLOOD THREAT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE REGION FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.
15
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
FOR THE 14/06Z TAF PERIOD, VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE SOUTH NEAR KLFK NEAR
DAYBREAK THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIVE SOUTH AFFECTING TXK/ELD AROUND 14/13Z.
ALTHOUGH THE COMPLEX WILL DIMINISH THROUGH LATE MORNING, COULD SEE
ADDITIONAL SEA BREEZE CONVECTION AROUND KLFK AFTER 14/18Z.
OTHERWISE, SW WINDS UP TO 10 KTS TO PREVAIL TODAY, BECOMING LIGHT
AND NORTHWEST AFTER 15/00Z. /05/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS, AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
TEXAS, AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 91 73 80 71 / 50 80 80 60
MLU 94 73 81 70 / 40 80 80 70
DEQ 83 68 78 65 / 90 70 50 10
TXK 88 70 79 68 / 70 80 60 20
ELD 90 70 79 66 / 50 80 70 40
TYR 91 73 81 70 / 50 80 80 40
GGG 91 73 81 70 / 50 80 80 50
LFK 93 74 84 72 / 60 70 80 80
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...05
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page