973
FXUS64 KSHV 232111
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
411 PM CDT FRI AUG 23 2019
SHORT TERM
/THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT/
THE PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE REGION IS CURRENTLY SHOWING
GOOD SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN, AT LEAST TEMPORARILY, OVER THE
REGION IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
IS DEFINITELY BETTER ACROSS THE REGION THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE IN
THE LAST HANDFUL OF DAYS, ALTHOUGH A GOOD MANY LOCATIONS OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES HAVE STILL YET TO RECEIVE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF WETNESS.
THROUGH TOMORROW, THE ARKLATEX WILL BENEFIT FROM ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING IN THE DIPPING WESTERLIES WHILE A CUT-OFF
LOW GRADUALLY PUSHES NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO LA. BOTH OF THOSE
FACTORS WILL INCREASE LIFT AND ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE, RESULTING IN
AN INCREASINGLY BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM OUR
NORTHWEST WILL LIKELY GET A SOMEWHAT VIGOROUS CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS ADVANCING TOWARD NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATER TONIGHT
WITH SOME RESIDUAL OF THIS ACTIVITY PROBABLY SPILLING INTO
NORTHERN ZONES BY DAYBREAK. IN OUR SOUTH THE CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE
INFLUX TIED THE CUT-OFF LOW PROGRESSING NORTH OF THE COASTLINE
COULD EVEN KEEP SOME SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE NIGHT. NO WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH TOMORROW, ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS CAUSING SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES CANNOT BE RULED OUT
IN FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. AS ALWAYS WITH SUMMERTIME STORMS, A FEW
STORMS PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING, BRIEF GUSTY WINDS, AND
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE NEXT 36
HOURS. FORTUNATELY, THE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER WITH HIGHS TOMORROW EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 95 DEGREES IN ALL AREAS WITH HEAT INDICES MAINLY
MAXING OUT AT OR BELOW 100 DEGREES. /50/
LONG TERM
/SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING/
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY BRINGING AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES THAT DAY. PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY AT THE SURFACE AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON WILL BRING A MARGINAL CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER IN FAR
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION NORTH OF I-30 IN SE OK AND SW AR.
ALSO, COULD SEE RAINFALL RATES BE VERY EFFICIENT AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
THEN, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST NUDGES BACK INTO THE FOUR
STATE REGION ON MONDAY AND MAYBE INTO TUESDAY WHERE WE COULD SEE
HEAT INDEX VALUES SPIKE TO OVER 105F, MAINLY FOR EAST TEXAS AND
EXTREME SECTIONS OF NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. BUT, THIS IS WHERE THE LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIFFER. THE ECMWF WANTS TO PUSH A FRONT
THROUGH ON TUESDAY WHILE THE GFS HOLDS IT UP FURTHER NORTH OF THE
AREA. EITHER WAY, WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AS THE
FRONT IS EITHER PASSING THROUGH OR STALL OUT NEAR OUR AREA. BUT, BY
THURSDAY RAIN CHANCES WILL BE DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE
FRONT MAKES A FINAL PUSH SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD NEAR NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
BUT WILL WARM UP TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MONDAY AND POSSIBLY
INTO TUESDAY. DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
DURING MID-WEEK, WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURE RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES. /35/
AVIATION
FOR THE 23/18Z TAF PERIOD, VFR CONDITIONS OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON
AS EXPANSIVE CU FIELD COVERS OUR TERMINAL AIRSPACE. WITHIN THIS CU
FIELD, SCATTERED SHWRS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED PER SHV RADAR
AS COPIUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES ADVECTING NORTHWARD FROM
THE GULF WHILE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PERCHED JUST TO OUR
NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH HEATING
LOSS AFTER SUNSET. HAVE HANDLED MOST SITES WITH VCSH/VCTS AND WILL
AMEND AS NEEDED WITH TSRA IF TERMINALS ARE IMPACTED. OTHERWISE,
LOOK FOR LOW STRATUS DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT
MORNING AND ADVECT NORTH WITH ALL SITES LIKELY SEEING MVFR CIGS
AND A FEW POSSIBLY WITH PATCHY FOG WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS. LIGHT
S/SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MOST SITES, BUT
TXK/ELD MAY SEE MORE VARIABLE WINDS DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 75 93 75 93 / 30 50 30 50
MLU 73 91 73 90 / 40 60 40 60
DEQ 73 88 72 90 / 40 60 30 40
TXK 74 89 73 91 / 30 50 30 40
ELD 73 90 72 90 / 30 60 40 50
TYR 74 93 75 95 / 20 40 20 30
GGG 75 93 75 95 / 20 40 20 40
LFK 74 93 75 94 / 20 50 20 40
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
50/35
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