270
FXUS64 KSHV 210701
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
201 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST TODAY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK.
- CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY, BUT A WARMING TREND
COMMENCES FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRAVERSE CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS
TODAY, SERVING AS THE PRIMARY CATALYST FOR INCREASED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS OUR EAST TEXAS
COUNTIES, ALTHOUGH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD BLEED OVER INTO
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. THIS SETUP WILL YIELD A NOTABLY TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX WITH MID 60S COMMON ACROSS EAST TEXAS, WHERE
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL INHIBIT HEATING.
ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES WILL SUCCESSFULLY CLIMB INTO THE 70S,
WITH SOME LOWER 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES. BY
WEDNESDAY, ROBUST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BROADEN THE
THREAT, SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE REGION, ALTHOUGH THE HIGHER CHANCES WILL
REMAIN ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE UNIFORM, RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80 DEGREES.
LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE LATE WEEK, THE 80S WILL RETURN TO THE
ENTIRE REGION ON THURSDAY AND SHOULD PERSIST THIS WAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE THE SETUP FOR CONVECTION APPEARS MUCH LESS
FAVORABLE ON THURSDAY, ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO AN APPROACHING
SURFACE FRONT ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
STALL BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA, WE ANTICIPATE SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOME OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THE ENVIRONMENT
WARRANTS WATCHING, WITH AMPLE CAPE, STEEP LAPSE RATES, AND DECENT
WIND SHEAR THAT WOULD HELP THE DEVELOP OF STRONGER STORMS. THAT
BEING SAID, THERE IS LIMITED UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS AND IT
DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE SOME CAP WHICH COULD BE A LIMITING
FACTOR. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM. SPC CURRENTLY MAINTAINS A 15% (SLIGHT
RISK) FOR PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES. DISAGREEMENT REMAINS IN
THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, BUT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
CHANCES REMAIN ON THE TABLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. /33/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 155 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, VFR SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH
INCREASING MID CLOUDS WITH SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY. DECKS WILL
LOWER THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASING AND
MAY PREVAIL WITH SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBY AFTER LUNCH TIME. ISOLD
TS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING AS THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
OVER E TX AND WILL HANG AROUND FOR A FEW DAYS WITH MORE SCATTERED
CONVECTION THROUGH MIDWEEK. MEANWHILE, WINDS WILL VEER LIGHT E
PREDAWN WITH 5-15KT FROM SE BY MID MORNING. NEXT FROPA BY WKND.
/24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 72 58 80 64 / 30 20 50 0
MLU 80 60 84 61 / 10 20 10 0
DEQ 69 51 76 59 / 40 30 40 10
TXK 72 56 79 63 / 30 30 40 10
ELD 77 55 79 58 / 10 30 30 0
TYR 65 58 78 65 / 80 40 50 0
GGG 68 56 79 63 / 60 30 60 0
LFK 67 57 79 64 / 80 30 70 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...24
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