284
FXUS64 KSHV 050033
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
633 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
- HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING FOR A COOL DAY AND A CHILLY START TO
THE NEW WEEK, BUT OUR WARM UP BEGINS MONDAY WITH SE WINDS.
- WE WILL PUSH RIGHT BACK INTO RECORD TERRITORY FOR MANY OF OUR
SITES BY MIDWEEK WITH SW WINDS ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
- THE SW FLOW WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DURING
LATE WEEK WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT AND SEASONAL WEEKEND TEMPS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
WELL THE OLE LOW CLOUD DECK GOT US AGAIN AND JUST WOULD NOT SCOUR
WELL LASTNIGHT, THICKENING UP AGAIN BY DAYBREAK. THE BACK EDGE OF
THE LOW CLOUDS IS NEARING EL DORADO, HOMER AND MANSFIELD. THIS
DECK IS MOVING WESTWARD. MEANWHILE, PASSING CIRRUS IS FLYING
OVERHEAD AND PROMISES ONLY PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ONCE THE BACK
EDGE CLEAR ANY GIVEN LOCATION. AIR TEMPS ARE ALL IN THE 50S AND
POTENTIALLY COULD SEE LOW 60S WITH SOME OF THAT JANUARY SUNSHINE.
OUR WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARYING FROM THE NE-SE, AND REALLY JUST
AS MANY CALM SITES TOO. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CORED OVER
OHIO AT 1024MB AND EXTENDS DOWN THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH 1022MB
STILL AT MONROE AND NEAR ALEXANDRIA. SO, WE ARE LOOKING FOR A
RANGE OF LOW TO MID 40S AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH A MIX OF STARS AND
CLOUDS.
THE AFTERNOON WILL SEE QUITE A FEW LOWER 70S ON MONDAY, AND BACK
IN RECORD TERRITORY FOR SOME ON TUESDAY AND MANY MORE LOCALES AS
WE PEAK UNDER THE REBUILDING UPPER RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE FAR TO OUR NORTH WILL TIGHTEN UP THE GRADIENT AND
HUMIDITY LOWERS AS WE HEAT UP, SO KEEP IN MIND THE THREAT FOR
WILDFIRE ACTIVITY WILL RETURN WITH THE GUSTY SW WINDS. THE BURN
BANS CONTINUE TO RESUME AND OUR DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO
WORSEN IN THE LA NINA WINTER. THE CPC ADVISORY INDICATES A GOOD
CHANCE AT 68%, TO MODERATE BACK TO NEUTRAL IN THE COMING MONTHS.
THAT WOULD MEAN LOTS MORE RAINFALL BACK IN THE OFFING, BUT FOR NOW
THESE ONCE A WEEK CHANCES ARE GOING TO KEEP US LOSING GROUND.
THE UPPER TROUGH AND IT'S DEEP SW FLOW WILL USHER RAIN PRODUCING
CLOUDS FOR US IN BY EARLY THURSDAY FOR OUR I-30, AND THEN BECOMING
AREAWIDE BY SUNSET AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. THE WPC OUTLOOK
FOR DAY 5-7 IS STILL ANYWHERE FROM A TENTH TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH OVER OUR FOUR-STATE AREA. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
LARGER AND COLDER AIR MASS AT 1032MB SPREADING ACROSS TEXAS THIS
WEEKEND. SO THE ROLLER COASTER DIPS BACK TO AVERAGE AND BELOW
DURING THIS TIME AS MORE DRY CONTINENTAL CANADIAN AIR POURS DOWN
THE FRONT RANGE FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT. /24/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
VFR JUST ABOUT AIRSPACE WIDE THIS EVENING AS TXK IS THE ONLY
TERMINAL BATTLING A MIX OF MVFR GIVEN SOME LOWER BKN/OVC CIGS BELOW
2KFT. ELSEWHERE BKN/OVC CIGS ABOVE 15,000 FT CONTINUE TO FILL IN
FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST. CONFIDENCE IN THIS PATTERN STAYING PUT
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT IS HIGH, BUT IT IS THE RETURN OF
LOW CLOUDS AND REDUCED VSBY THAT RAISES SOME QUESTIONS. HI-RES
VSBY GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO BE AGGRESSIVE WITH
BR/FG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 05/12Z FOR TERMINALS AS FAR NORTH AS THE
THREE STATES MARKER. GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY IN THE MODEL OUTPUT,
ELECTED TO ADVERTISE REDUCED VSBY'S THROUGH THE MID TO LATE
MORNING, WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AND RECOVERY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. TERMINAL SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHERLIES AROUND 10KT.
53
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 554 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 45 71 60 79 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 42 69 56 77 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 39 68 51 72 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 45 70 57 76 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 40 67 53 75 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 47 70 60 78 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 44 71 59 78 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 44 71 59 78 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...53
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