853
FXUS64 KSHV 250136
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
736 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
- TRAVEL WILL CONTINUE TO BE TREACHEROUS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
TOMORROW AS FURTHER WINTRY PRECIPITATION IMPACTS THE ARKLATEX,
POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN POWER OUTAGES ACROSS THE REGION.
- CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN STORM TOTAL SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES NORTH OF I-20, AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF
BETWEEN HALF AN INCH AND 1 INCH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE REGION, WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER TEENS AND SINGLE-DIGITS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNING, POSING THREATS TO EXPOSED PIPES, OUTDOOR PETS, AND
VULNERABLE PERSONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
THE FIRST ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIP CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST BY NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX, RESULTING IN PERIODS OF HEAVY SLEET,
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF LOUISIANA AT THIS LUNCHTIME
HOUR. THIS WAVE OF PRECIP WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH MOST SITES EXPECTED TO SEE AT
LEAST A BRIEF RESPITE BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES LATER THIS
EVENING, OVERSPREADING THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. THE EXACT NATURE OF THE WINTRY PRECIP TONIGHT WILL DEPEND
ON WHAT TEMPERATURE PROFILES DO IN THE INTERIM PERIOD, AS THE DEPTH
AND INTENSITY OF THE "WARM NOSE" WILL MAKE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
WHILE THE PREDOMINANT WINTRY PRECIP TYPE TODAY SO FAR HAS BEEN
SLEET, GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS NEXT ROUND TONIGHT IS STILL
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE REGION, THUS WILL BE MAINTAINING THE
EXISTING ICE STORM WARNING AND WINTER STORM WARNING, BOTH THROUGH
00Z MONDAY. STORM TOTALS STILL PROJECT ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF HALF AN
INCH TO AN INCH IN AREAS IMPACTED BY THE ICE STORM WARNING, AS WELL
AS 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET MIX ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR. THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH THIS
SYSTEM, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE REGION. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF THESE AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL
POWER OUTAGES AS ICE BUILDS UP ON TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES. AS
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED, TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED FOR THE
DURATION OF WINTRY PRECIP STARTS, AND WHILE ROADS REMAIN FROZEN
THEREAFTER. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN REASONABLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE
EVENT TO AN END DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, AS PRECIP TAPERS OFF FROM THE
WEST EARLY, EXITING THE REGION ALTOGETHER BY SUNDAY EVENING.
WHILE THE PRECIP WILL CONCLUDE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND, DANGEROUS
COLD WILL REMAIN A PARTICULAR HAZARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES PLUNGING DRAMATICALLY INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND SINGLE
DIGITS, EVEN APPROACHING ZERO DEGREES NORTH BY DAYBREAK MONDAY AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY, WHICH WILL POSE A THREAT TO EXPOSED PIPES, OUTDOOR
PETS, AND VULNERABLE PERSONS.
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND- TO ABOVE-FREEZING VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY- FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE RETURNS BY THE END OF THIS EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY
PRECIP MAY IMPACT THE ARKLATEX BY THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD, BUT THE
DETAILS OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AND
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE DAYS AHEAD AS WE CONTINUE
DEALING WITH THE IMPACTS OF THIS WEEKEND'S SYSTEM.
/26/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 731 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
FOR THE 25/00Z TAF PERIOD, SIGNIFICANT DEGRADATION IN FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD WITH FZRA AND FZRAPL EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A GRADUAL TAPERING OFF OF THIS WINTRY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN BY OR AROUND 25/15Z WITH SOME -SN
POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 TERMINALS THROUGH ROUGHLY 18Z
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SO EXPECT VERY DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR
NEARLY ALL OF THIS TAF PERIOD WITH LOWS CIGS PREVAILING EVEN AFTER
PRECIPITATION ENDS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM
THE N/NE BETWEEN 6-12 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF
THE PERIOD.
/19/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 617 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY FOR
ACCUMULATION REPORTS OF ICE AND SNOW ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION.
/15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 22 32 15 32 / 100 70 10 0
MLU 22 32 14 30 / 100 100 0 0
DEQ 15 26 4 30 / 100 70 10 0
TXK 19 29 9 30 / 100 70 10 0
ELD 15 29 9 30 / 100 90 10 0
TYR 19 26 12 29 / 100 40 0 0
GGG 20 29 11 31 / 100 60 0 0
LFK 22 33 15 34 / 100 60 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR ARZ050-051-
059>061-070-071.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR ARZ072-073.
LA...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR OKZ077.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
OKZ077.
TX...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR TXZ136>138-149>153-
165>167.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...19
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