537
FXUS64 KSHV 011915 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
215 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON IS SHAPING UP ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES EASILY CRUISE INTO THE UPPER 80'S AND LOW 90'S. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS
BEEN WORKING SOUTH AND OUT OF THE PLAINS, IS LIKELY SOMEWHERE ALONG
OR JUST SOUTH OF I-20. THAT BEING SAID, NORTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY, A WEAK SHEAR AXIS LINGERING BEHIND THE SURFACE FORCING IS
TUCKED WITHIN A MARGINAL VORTICITY MAX AROUND THE BASE OF THE 925-
850MB TROUGH. CONVECTIVE HI-RES GUIDANCE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HAS BEEN STEADY WITH THE ADVERTISEMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE FOR AFTERNOON POPS CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED ACROSS LA AND
AR, THOUGH THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, AND WITH PEAK HEATING, OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND EVEN THE WEAKEST OF SHEAR PATTERNS CAN SUPPORT
SHORT LIVED THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT, ANOTHER MUGGY EVENING IS IN
THE CARDS WITH LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70'S.
RINSE AND REPEAT IS THE PATTERN INTO WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER HOT
AFTERNOON AS HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90'S ARE TO BE EXPECTED. BY
THE MID AFTERNOON, DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS TO RETURN, THOUGH
COVERAGE ODDS ARE NOT NEARLY AS HIGH AS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE
THE GRADUAL TRANSISTION TO A DRIER FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING BOUNDARY, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING MORE DOMINATE
AS THE APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS THE FA THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH POPS BECOMING LESS LIKELY
THROUGH THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK, AND WITH THE INCOMING RIDGE,
TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BY A FEW DEGREES THROUGH THE FOURTH OF
JULY, WITH SATURDAY CURRENTLY SLATED TO BE THE HOTTEST OF THE 7 DAY
PERIOD.
THOUGH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS A COMMON TREND AROUND THE REGION
THROUGH THE SUMMER MONTHS, IT IS IMPORTANT THAT WITH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND ON THE HORIZON TO PRACTICE PROPER HEAT SAFETY, ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE FORECAST. THE COMBINATION OF A MOSTLY RAIN FREE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND, MIXED WITH THE EFFECTS OF THE INBOUND RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR
THE FORECAST TO BE AN ATTRACTIVE ONE FOR EXTENDED OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES. A SIMPLE REMINDER TO STAY HYDRATED (PRIMARILY WATER OR
HIGH ELECTROLYTE BEVERAGES THAT ARE LIMITED IN SUGAR), TAKE
FREQUENT BREAKS UNDER A SHADED OR A/C SUPPORTED BUILDING, AND
WEARING LIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING. GIVEN THE FORECAST, AND
WITH HEAT INDICES ALREADY ADVERTISED TO BE ABOVE 105 DEG F IN THE
EXTENDED, HEAT PRODUCTS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN A FUTURE PACKAGE,
WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT THEY COULD BE ISSUED AS EARLY AS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. BEYOND THE WEEKEND, POPS DO RETURN LATE SUNDAY, BUT
MORE WIDESPREAD OPPORTUNITIES RETURN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KNAPP
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 01/18Z TAF PERIOD. A SCATTERED
CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED AREAWIDE, BUT SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER 00Z
WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY BEGUN TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON OVER NE LA NEAR A WEAK SFC FRONT AND ATTENDANT SHEAR AXIS,
AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. HAVE MAINTAINED
VCTS FOR MID/LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE MLU TERMINAL ONLY AS ANY CONVECTION
FARTHER W OVER N LA SHOULD BE QUITE ISOLATED. CIRRUS CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING FROM THE W, AND LINGER THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. SHOULD SEE A WEAK CU FIELD BEGIN TO DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY AS WELL. WNW WINDS 6-10KTS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LT/VRB AFTER 00Z. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 78 95 77 96 / 10 20 0 10
MLU 74 94 74 94 / 10 10 0 10
DEQ 70 92 72 92 / 0 10 0 10
TXK 75 95 75 95 / 0 10 0 10
ELD 71 93 72 92 / 10 10 0 10
TYR 75 95 75 94 / 10 10 0 10
GGG 75 94 75 94 / 10 10 0 10
LFK 75 96 75 94 / 10 20 0 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...15
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