315
FXUS64 KSHV 140647
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
147 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (CARRYING DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES)
ARE LIKELY WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY. THIS THE
MAIN CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
- SOME NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20.
- ANOTHER DRY AND WARM WEEK IS AHEAD AFTER MONDAY (MID-TO UPPER
80S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY NEXT FRIDAY).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS,
SETTING THE STAGE FOR ACTIVE WEATHER ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURE
MAXIMUMS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 70-80 DEGREE RANGE WILL NOT BE
UNCOMMON AS A RESULT. ALOFT, ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
SAME TIME PERIOD BEFORE TROUGHING BEGINS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. AS TROUGHING EMERGES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS, SOME LEE
CYCLOGENESIS WILL AMPLIFY THE DELIVERY OF MORE UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAST-MOVING COMPLEX
OF STORMS TO DEVELOP, CARRYING THE PREDOMINANT THREATS OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND QUICKLY-FORMING TORNADOES. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS INGREDIENTS LIKE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KM, AND
0-1 KM SRH AT 150-200 M2/S2 FOR A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO
THREAT THAT AFTERNOON WITH ANY STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
A SIGNIFICANT POST-FRONTAL COOLDOWN IS ALSO BECOMING MORE LIKELY,
WITH A GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY NIGHT NORTH OF I-30. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PATTERN
CHANGE TO RIDGING, THAT CONTINUES THE ROLLERCOASTER RIDE WITH
ANOTHER WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK (MID-TO UPPER 80S ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION BY NEXT FRIDAY). /16/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 138 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
FOR THE 14/06Z TAF PERIOD...CURRENTLY, VFR SKIES WITH PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER, LOW CIGS
WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE IN OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION, BRINGING
MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR SKIES. THESE CIGS MAY HOLD OFF AT KMLU, AND
POSSIBLY AT KELD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AS THE LOW CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT BY MID MORNING, WITH MORE PASSING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED
TO MOVE IN. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH BETWEEN 7-12 MPH,
EVENTUALLY INCREASING TO BETWEEN 10-15 MPH BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD, WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 20 TO 25 MPH AT TIMES. /20/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 77 60 84 35 / 0 0 50 40
MLU 77 58 84 36 / 0 0 30 70
DEQ 76 54 76 25 / 0 0 70 20
TXK 78 60 82 32 / 0 0 70 20
ELD 75 56 80 30 / 0 0 60 50
TYR 79 61 84 34 / 0 0 30 10
GGG 78 59 84 32 / 0 0 50 20
LFK 78 60 85 36 / 0 0 30 40
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...20
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