766
FXUS64 KSHV 060124
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
824 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
- A STRONG COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE REGION, THAT WILL BRING
THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
- ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND, BUT THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
ALL EYES REMAIN FOCUSED ON THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY
SITTING ALONG A LINE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS, THAT WILL IMPACT OUR AREA THIS EVENING. WHILE WE HAVE
NOT SEEN TOO MUCH MOVEMENT IN IT TODAY, IT IS EXPECTED TO START
DIVING SOUTHWARD AND INTO OUR AREA BY THIS EVENING AND WILL MAKE
FOR AN INTERESTING 24-36 HOURS ACROSS OUR REGION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AROUND 06/00Z FOR PORTIONS OF
FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS, SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS, AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA,
WHERE SPC HAS PAINTED A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. LARGE HAIL
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE GREATER THREAT TODAY, BUT THERE
IS ALSO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS WELL. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE
HIT AND MISS WITH HOW MUCH CONVECTION SPAWNS FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH SOME OF THEM SHOWING MORE COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY THAN OTHERS. THIS WILL BE SOMEWHAT OF A CONDITIONAL
THREAT AS THERE IS SOME CAPPING IN PLACE THAT COULD INHIBIT
DEVELOPMENT, WHICH COULD BE THE REASON THE MODELS ARE INDIFFERENT.
WHILE MOST MODELS INDICATE A BREAK IN WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, A FEW OF THEM CONTINUE TO HANG ONTO
CONVECTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MOST MODELS SHOW A LULL IN STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AFTER SUNRISE, ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOW SOME LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN POSSIBLE. THIS WILL CHANGE QUICKLY AS WE MOVE INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE FRONT CONTINUES ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION.
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM
SECTOR JUST AFTER NOON ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH SOME MODELS HOLDING ONTO THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. STORM MODE INITIALLY LOOKS
TO BE ISOLATED, WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DISCRETE
CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. SHOULD STORMS
CONGEAL TOGETHER THROUGH THE DAY, THE WIND THREAT WOULD THEN
INCREASE. DEVELOPMENT WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONT. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS TO BE FOR ALL AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR WHERE SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK. JUST TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA
ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR EAST OF MONROE, SPC INTRODUCED AN ENHANCED
RISK THIS AFTERNOON, AND THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THAT THIS WON'T BE
EXTENDED WEST INTO OUR AREA.
ONE THING THAT IS CERTAIN, THURSDAY WILL BE PLEASANT ACROSS THE
REGION AS HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 70S IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG, AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND WILL RETURN TO THE
80S ON SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS WEEKEND, MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD DISAGREEMENT ABOUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT THOUGH, SO THIS WILL
NEED TO BE REFINED AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK. /33/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 820 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
FOR THE 06/00Z TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS WITH HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE AIRSPACE THIS EVENING. EVENTUALLY, LOW CIGS WILL RETURN
AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT, ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, AS A FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA. WE COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION AS EARLY AS
MIDNIGHT NEAR KTXK. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE DURING THE
PERIOD, WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE GREATEST THREAT. EXPECT WINDS TO
BECOME NORTHERLY IN WAKE OF THE FRONT DURING THE PERIOD. /20/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS EVENING ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES, GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30. EVEN IF
ACTIVATION IS NOT LOCALLY REQUESTED, ANY REPORTS OF HAZARDOUS
WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE APPRECIATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 71 80 58 71 / 10 80 60 30
MLU 71 83 59 73 / 10 90 90 30
DEQ 57 70 51 72 / 50 60 20 10
TXK 64 73 55 72 / 50 80 30 20
ELD 64 74 52 70 / 30 90 60 20
TYR 66 77 57 71 / 20 70 30 20
GGG 68 78 57 71 / 20 80 40 30
LFK 71 84 62 73 / 0 80 50 40
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...50
AVIATION...20
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