175
FXUS64 KSHV 181738
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1138 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1052 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY AND AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY.
- WEEK ENDING RAINFALL IS STILL ON COURSE WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES FOR
MOST AND NEAR 3 INCH TOTALS NORTH OF OUR I-30 CORRIDOR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 952 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL
MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY FETCH OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE
OVERNIGHT DIURNAL INVERSION WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY MORNING FOG AND
LOW CEILINGS FOLLOWED BY NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S.
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SWINGING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL EJECT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM MID TO LATE WEEK.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE UPPER 60S WILL ALLOW FOR A GENERALLY
UNSTABLE SETUP ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE. AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL AREAWIDE AHEAD OF THE LOW,
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE BEGINNING ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
RAINFALL RATES TO INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST.
WPC HAS POSTED AN EXCESSIVE RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS ON THURSDAY AS RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AN INCH PER HOUR IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH RAINFALL TOTALS
UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES.
COLD FRONT TO SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH
LINGERING RAINFALL TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
FILTERS SOUTHWARD. COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S AND
LOWS AVERAGING IN THE 50S. /05/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS
PERIOD. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTHERLY TODAY AND WEAKEN
AFTER NIGHTFALL. THERE IS ALREADY ANOTHER SIGNAL FOR FOG AND LOW
CEILINGS FOR SEVERAL SITES FOR TOMORROW MORNING. THE STRONGEST
SIGNAL IS FOR KFLK WHICH WAS INCLUDED IN THIS PACKAGE. CONFIDENCE
FOR FOG AT OTHER SITES AT THIS TIME ISN'T AS STRONG SO IT HAS BEEN
LEFT OUT. THE LOW CEILINGS THAT DEVELOP WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND
SCATTER OUT IN THE HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK. /57/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 85 66 84 67 / 0 0 0 20
MLU 83 64 84 64 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 81 60 82 62 / 10 0 10 60
TXK 83 65 83 66 / 10 0 10 40
ELD 80 61 82 63 / 0 0 0 20
TYR 83 65 83 67 / 10 0 20 40
GGG 83 64 83 65 / 10 0 10 30
LFK 85 64 84 64 / 0 0 20 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...57
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