229
FXUS64 KSHV 250043
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
643 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
- WE HAVE SEEN GUSTY S/SW WINDS AND LOW RH, CONTRIBUTING TO
ELEVATED WILD FIRE WEATHER DANGER TODAY. BOTH THE FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT AND WIND ADVISORY CONTINUE THROUGH 6 PM.
- THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EARLY ON FRIDAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY ALONG AND EAST OF I-49, AND NORTH OF I-20 BY SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
THIN CIRRUS FLYING BY ON THE NW FLOW AROUND 45 MPH ALOFT WITH SW
WINDS 25-35 MPH, DEEPENING IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE, UP TO NEAR
THE FREEZING LEVEL AT 12KFT. OUR PWAT HAS BEEN NEAR 0.10" FOR THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND HAS DOUBLED NOW, ALL COURTESY OF OUR NOON
BALLOON SOUNDING. THE NEXT BIG CHANGE WILL BE A DECK OF MORNING
LOW CLOUDS PREDAWN AND THROUGH ABOUT LUNCH WITH A WARMER AFTERNOON
MIXING IN SUNSHINE. OUR NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ONLY GRAZE BY
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THE SPC DAY
3 OUTLOOK HAS A GENERAL RISK CONTOUR OVER OUR EASTERN HALF ALONG
AND EAST OF I-49 GENERALLY SPEAKING, THROUGH THE PREDAWN ON
FRIDAY. THE BRISK SW WINDS TOMORROW AND THURSDAY, WILL SHIFT TO
N/NE OVERNIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY AROUND A 1020MB HIGH OVER
ARKANSAS. THEN WE'LL BE SHIFTING TO SE FOR THE WEEKEND, SO WE
WILL NOT GET SUPER DRY RH WISE. THE WEEKEND LOOKS GOOD AS WE WARM
BACK A BIT, KEEPING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS AND LOWS
AND HANGING ON TO SOME HUMIDITY.
ALOFT, THE STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER BAJA PEAKS WITH OUR FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE ON THURSDAY AT 591 DAM WITH A DEEP 551DAM PACIFIC
UPPER LOW EDGING SHOREWARD. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL MANAGE TO KEEP
US WARM INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT IT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS
EASTWARD ACROSS MEXICO AND OUT OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA, DROPPING
DOWN TO 585DAM BY TUESDAY. SO, AS THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS, THE
APPROACHING DEEP PACIFIC LOW WILL BE PUSHING OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA, FILLING TO 556DAM CLOSED CORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNLIKE
THE VALENTINE DAY CORE UPPER LOW THAT TRACKED ALONG I-20, THIS ONE
HAS EYES FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. SO WE WILL STILL GET A
PERIOD OF DEEP SW FLOW LOADED WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE, BUT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL NOT ACHIEVE DROUGHT RELIEF FOR US IN THIS WEAKENED
STATE AND APPROACH VECTOR. HOWEVER, THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE CPC
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK REMAINS QUITE WARM NATIONWIDE, EXCEPT FOR NEW
ENGLAND, BUT THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK NOW SHADES GREEN "AVERAGE
AND ABOVE AVERAGE" FOR NOT ONLY OUR FOUR STATES, BUT FOR MUCH OF
THE COUNTRY. ALL BUT THE EXTREME WEST COAST AND EAST COAST WILL BE
BELOW AVERAGE ON RAINFALL INTO MID MARCH. THIS LA NINA IS GOING
TO BE TRANSITIONING BACK TO NEUTRAL TOWARD APRIL AND KEEPING
NEUTRAL OVER THE COMING SUMMER. /24/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 536 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
FOR THE 25/00Z TAF UPDATE, VFR VIS/CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD WITH BKN200 CIGS. THE EXCEPTION IS WITH BKN020 LOW
CLOUD INFILTRATION ACROSS THE AIRSPACE FROM 25/09-16Z, ENHANCED BY
ONGOING SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS NEAR 10 KTS. /16/
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 553 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
CONCERN REMAINS ELEVATED ACROSS OUR FOUR STATE AREA WITH HUMIDITY
MINS IN THE 20% RANGE WITH GUSTY S/SW WINDS. WILDFIRE GROWTH AND
SPREAD REMAINS LIKELY TODAY, BUT WILL BEGIN TO RELENT WITH
MOISTURE OFF OF THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THESE SAFER
CONDITIONS WITH MORE HUMID AIR WILL HELP LIMIT THE SPREAD AND
GROWTH POTENTIAL AND OUR WINDS WILL NO BE QUITE AS GUSTY AFTER
WEDNESDAY. THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT EXPIRES THIS EVENING. MANY
MORE BURN BANS HAVE BEEN ENACTED ACROSS OUR FOUR-STATE AREA.
REFER TO YOUR LOCAL AREA JURISDICTIONS FOR THE MOST UPDATED
INFORMATION ON BURN BAN STATUS FOR YOUR AREA. /24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 553 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS STILL NOT EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK.
HOWEVER, PLEASE CONTINUE TO RELAY INFORMATION ON WILDFIRE
ACTIVITY FOUR-STATE AREA WIDE, TO HELP OUR FIRST RESPONDERS
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 55 80 62 79 / 0 0 0 20
MLU 50 76 61 77 / 0 0 10 50
DEQ 46 75 51 76 / 0 10 0 10
TXK 53 78 60 79 / 0 10 0 20
ELD 49 75 57 76 / 0 10 0 40
TYR 56 81 62 80 / 0 0 0 10
GGG 53 81 60 80 / 0 0 0 10
LFK 55 80 62 82 / 0 0 0 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-108>111-124-
125-136-137.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...16
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