138
FXUS64 KSHV 141144
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
544 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
- CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON MOVING INTO
THE FOUR STATE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S SUNDAY NIGHT MAY DAMAGE OR
KILL SENSITIVE VEGETATION AND COULD POSE A THREAT TO PERSONS
VULNERABLE TO THE COLD.
- TEMPERATURES WILL TREND MUCH WARMER BY MIDWEEK, CONTINUING
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN LATE THIS SATURDAY EVENING RESEMBLES
A +PNA PATTERN WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US
AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN US. NEAR THE
SURFACE, EYES ARE EASILY DRAWN TO THE STRONG ~1040MB AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS, AND
QUICKLY EXTENDING ITS INFLUENCE SOUTH AND EAST. A COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DEMARCATES ITS LEADING END, WHICH AT THE TIME OF THIS
WRITING IS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE TN AND OHIO VALLEYS
AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE E/SE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
LATE THIS EVENING, WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MODEST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HAVE ALLOWED OR A FEW STRONG UPDRAFTS, WITH SMALL HAIL
CURRENTLY AND ANTICIPATED TO BE THE MAIN HAZARD. BREEZY WINDS UP
TO 30 MPH MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY A WEAK BOWING SIGNATURE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN LA PARISHES. ELSEWHERE, AS COLD AIR RAPIDLY UNDERCUTS THE
CURRENT AIRMASS, SUFFICIENT FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AROUND 925MB
AND MUCAPE VALUES 100-500J/KG MAY MAKE FOR SOME MODERATE SHOWER
ACTIVITY/EVEN ISOLATED LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN LA
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY, WHERE
ATTENTION WILL IMMEDIATELY SHIFT TO THE MUCH COLDER AIRMASS.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE PRIMARY SENSIBLE
WEATHER INFLUENCE ON SUNDAY, AND WITH IT WILL BE A RATHER ROBUST
PRESSURE GRADIENT, MAKING FOR A STIFF NORTHEAST WIND AROUND
10-15MPH. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN LITTLE
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH 40 ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW AR AND TEMPERATURES
ELSEWHERE STUNTED IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE STIFF NE WIND WILL
MAKE FOR WIND CHILL VALUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE 30S.
THE CWA WILL FACE THE BRUNT OF THIS COLD AIRMASS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CONTINUED, ALBEIT WEAKENING,
COLD AIR ADVECTION. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO EASE AFTER SUNSET ON
SUNDAY, WHICH WILL LARGELY PROTECT THE CWA FROM DANGEROUS WIND
CHILL VALUES HEADING INTO MONDAY. NONETHELESS, A NIGHT OF GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITHIN THIS COLD AIRMASS WILL YIELD THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES THUS FAR THIS SEASON, WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS SW AR AND THE LOW TO MID 20S ELSEWHERE.
CONTEMPLATED THE NEED FOR A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY DURING THIS
PERIOD, HOWEVER, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF GIVEN THAT ALL LOCATIONS ARE
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES AWAY FROM TEMPERATURE THRESHOLDS. NEGLIGIBLE
SPREAD IN NBM LOW TEMPERATURES FROM THE 10TH PERCENTILE TO THE
90TH PERCENTILE PLACES SOMEWHAT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT
FORECAST LOWS, ALSO AIDED IN PART BY HREF PROBABILITIES SUGGESTING
ONLY A 30-40% CHANCE OF MEETING COLD WEATHER ADVISORY TEMPERATURE
CRITERIA AT BEST (AND THIS IS MAINLY EAST OF THE RED RIVER). ALL
THAT SAID, EVERYONE IN THE CWA SHOULD STILL PREPARE FOR BITTER
COLD TEMPERATURES EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND MAY WANT TO CONSIDER
TAKING COLD WEATHER PRECAUTIONS SUCH AS COVERING PIPES, COVERING
SENSITIVE PLANTS, AND CHECKING ON THOSE VULNERABLE TO COLD
WEATHER. IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES COULD
TREND A BIT COLDER AND HENCE WARRANT THE NEED FOR A HEADLINE.
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT EAST AND MODIFY ON
MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO SWING BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S (WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF FAR EASTERN ZONES STRUGGLING TO REACH THE MID
40S).
BY TUESDAY, THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL HAVE BROKEN DOWN,
BECOMING MORE SPLIT-FLOW AS THE POLAR JET BECOMES MORE ZONAL
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE US AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM
FEATURES WEAK TROUGHING ACROSS WEST TX AND NORTHERN MEXICO.
RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL ENSUE AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES
EASTWARD. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ON THE
INCREASE AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH DRAWS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD AND THE FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TURNS SOUTHWEST.
AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY START TO THE DAY ON TUESDAY, EXPECT A RATHER
SUBSTANTIAL WARM UP BACK TOWARDS 60 ACROSS NE TX AND N LA AND INTO
THE MID 50S ACROSS SE OK AND SW AR.
AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, EXPECT THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND A CONTINUED WARMING TREND IN
TEMPERATURES. CURRENT RAINFALL TOTALS APPEAR MEAGER AS IT SEEMS
PROBABLE THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE FROM
THE TOP DOWN GIVEN THE RECENT VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. A DIVING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL THEN HELP CARVE A DEEPER
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS ON THURSDAY AND ITS
CURRENT PROJECTED TRAJECTORY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL FORCING DISPLACED
TO THE NORTH AND THE OVERALL STRUGGLE FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO
SATURATE, THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOES NOT APPEAR OVERLY WET AT THIS
TIME. THIS WILL THEN YIELD A COOLER AND DRIER DAY ON FRIDAY,
ALTHOUGH NOTHING NEARLY AS COLD AS EARLIER IN THE WEEK. THEREAFTER
EXPECT QUICK AIRMASS RECOVERY NEXT WEEKEND, WITH STRONG ENSEMBLE
AGREEMENT IN HIGHER HEIGHTS AND HENCE, WARMER TEMPERATURES.
CK
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
FOR THE 14/12Z TAF UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING WITH MOST TERMINALS SEEING OVC025 OR LOWER.
ADDITIONALLY, WINDS HAVE BEEN BREEZY ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING, WITH NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 15-20 KTS THIS
MORNING. CLOUDS WILL LINGER A LITTLE LONGER THIS MORNING BEFORE
GIVING WAY TO SKC AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 14/18Z, WHICH WILL ALSO
COINCIDE WITH WINDS WEAKENING AS WELL. SKC WILL THEN PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THIS TAF PERIOD. /33/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 44 26 50 35 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 39 21 45 29 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 41 20 45 28 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 41 23 47 33 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 36 19 45 27 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 46 27 51 39 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 45 24 51 34 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 51 26 53 34 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...33
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