333
FXUS64 KSHV 140550
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1250 AM CDT WED APR 14 2021
AVIATION
FOR THE 14/06Z TAF UPDATE, AN ACTIVE WEATHER SITUATION IS ONGOING
AS A WARM FRONT BISECTS OUR AIRSPACE IN A LINE GENERALLY FROM KTYR
TO KELD. VCTS/TSRA CONVECTION HAS WANED FOR NOW WITH REMNANT
MVFR/IFR CIGS OVER OUR WESTERN TERMINALS, HOWEVER, THAT ACTIVITY
WILL RETURN IN EARNEST BY 14/10Z, AND CLEAR ALL TERMINALS FROM
WEST TO EAST BY 14/20Z. AFTER THE CONVECTION EXITS THE AREA, MVFR
CIGS AND WINDS FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. /16/
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 909 PM CDT TUE APR 13 2021/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST WAS MINOR THIS EVENING, PERTAINING TO THE
RETURNING WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION AND ITS EFFECTS ON POPS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
CHASING A LEFTWARD MOVING SUPERCELL ALONG A RETREATING WARM FRONT
THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE TX WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF
SEVERE HAIL ALONG ITS PATH BEFORE IT FINALLY DISSIPATED ACROSS
EASTERN HARRISON COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST CADDO PARISH. WE ARE STILL
DEALING WITH SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NE TX LOCATED ALONG AN INSTABILITY AXIS WHICH EXTENDS FROM SE TX
INTO EXTREME NW LA AND SW AR. LATEST HRRR AND 00Z NAM OUTPUT
SUGGESTS THAT OUR WESTERN THIRD WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE
POSSIBILITY OF RENEWED CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
INSTABILITY AXIS AND THE NORTHWESTWARD MOVING WARM FRONT BEFORE
BROAD SCALE LIFT INCREASES DRAMATICALLY LATE TONIGHT AND
THEREFORE STORM COVERAGE DOES AS WELL AREAWIDE.
PERTURBATION IN DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMING OUT OF THE
TX HILL COUNTRY AND A DEVELOPING 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
GENERATE THE NECESSARY UPWARD AND ISENTROPIC FORCING FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE
INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD WEAKEN OVERNIGHT, MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SOME LARGE HAIL OVERNIGHT,
MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST HALF, DEPICTED BEST BY SPC'S
MAINTAINING A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS OUR REGION.
ONLY CHANGE WAS TO REORGANIZE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING MORE TOWARDS THE WEST WITH LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE AS WE
APPROACH SUNRISE WED MORNING.
UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY...13.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 69 53 71 53 / 60 60 20 60
MLU 68 51 70 52 / 80 50 20 40
DEQ 67 49 70 49 / 50 30 10 60
TXK 64 50 69 52 / 50 40 10 50
ELD 64 48 70 48 / 60 40 10 40
TYR 69 52 70 54 / 40 60 20 60
GGG 69 52 70 52 / 50 60 20 60
LFK 73 55 72 56 / 50 70 30 50
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
16/13
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