994
FXUS64 KSHV 161926
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
226 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
...NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
- NEARLY WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK, MAINTAINING AN ELEVATED RISK
FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES.
- INCREASINGLY DRY SOILS AND PARCHED VEGETATION RESULTING FROM
FLASH DROUGHT WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT OF QUICK FIRE STARTS AND
RAPID FIRE SPREADS.
- ALTHOUGH RAIN WILL BE HARD TO COME BY, A FEW OPPORTUNITIES WILL
EXIST THIS WEEK FOR NORTHERN AREAS TO SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION
WHILE MOST OF THE REGION LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
AN UNRELENTING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE HAS YIELDED SOARING TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH TRIPLE-DIGIT HIGHS LIKELY TO BE ACHIEVED FOR
THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH IT'S LITTLE
CONSOLATION, WE HAVE MANAGED TO MIX OUT DEW POINTS SLIGHTLY MORE
THAN YESTERDAY SO HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE A BIT LOWER BY COMPARISON.
OF COURSE, THIS DEVELOPMENT ALSO PRESENTS A PROBLEM WITH OUR FIRE
DANGER CONCERNS THAT ONLY CONTINUE TO GROW WITH THE FLASH DROUGHT
CONDITIONS THAT HAVE MATERIALIZED UNDER THIS OPPRESSIVE HEAT DOME.
THEREFORE, ABSOLUTELY NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED WITH OUR CURRENT HEAT
AND FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES AS THESE HAZARD PRODUCTS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK WITH OUR FUTURE
FORECAST UPDATES.
IN TERMS OF ANY DEVIATIONS AT ALL FROM WHAT WE SAW TODAY, IT DOES
APPEAR THAT WE WILL STRUGGLE A BIT MORE TO MIX OUT THE DEW POINTS
OVER THE NEXT DAYS. ANALYZING THE PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) TRENDS,
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PW VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 1.5-2.0 INCHES ACROSS
THE ENTIRE REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, AMBIENT AIR
TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY REMAIN THE STATUS QUO IF NOT EVEN HOTTER
GIVEN THE RIDGE PLACEMENT, ALBEIT SLIGHTLY RETROGRADING WESTWARD
EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. ONE POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT WITH
THE SLIGHT RETROGRESSION IN THE RIDGE IS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD FROM THE OZARKS INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES
LATE ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE CONTINUED
TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST CWA
DURING THIS LATE MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING TIMEFRAME.
LOOKING BEYOND MONDAY, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR MUCH OF THE
SAME EVEN AS THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND EVENTUALLY SPLIT
OFF WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE AXIS CENTERING ACROSS THE FOUR-CORNERS
REGION BY MID-WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION AND ENOUGH
THAT EXTREME HEAT WARNING HEADLINES MAY REPLACE THE HEAT ADVISORY
FOR AT LEAST SOME OF OUR EASTERN ZONES LATER IN THE WEEK. BY NEXT
WEEKEND, AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL ATTEMPT A RUN
FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR REGION BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW ON
THE PROSPECTS OF ANY MEANINGFUL HEAT RELIEF. AT MOST, IT APPEARS
THE FRONT MAY SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH TO REACH OUR NORTHERN CWA NEAR
THE AR/LA BORDER BEFORE RETREATING BACK NORTHWARD. SO DESPITE
EARLIER HINTS AT POSSIBLE HEAT RELIEF ON THE HORIZON, THAT SHIP
APPEARS TO HAVE SAILED FOR NOW.
/19/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
FOR THE 16/18Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE COURSE OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS MORNING HAS SEEN LESS CU
FIELD DEVELOPMENT THAN IN RECENT DAYS, BUT SCATTERED MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON, DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET
AND LEAVING ONLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS, BECOMING LIGHT
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WESTERLY INTO TOMORROW.
/26/
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
A COMBINATION OF DRY FUELS, LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
25-40 PERCENT RANGE, AND S TO SW WINDS SUSTAINED NEAR 10 MPH WITH
SOME HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL MAINTAIN AN ELEVATED
WILDFIRE THREAT ACROSS ALL OF OUR FIRE DISTRICTS. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS BEGINNING
TO SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER SUNSET WITH RH VALUES RECOVERING AND WIND
SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.
/19/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 133 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, BUT SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY WILDFIRE ACTIVITY TO YOUR LOCAL OFFICIALS
AND FIRE DEPARTMENT PERSONNEL.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 79 103 80 102 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 79 102 79 102 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 74 103 73 103 / 0 20 20 0
TXK 78 102 78 102 / 0 10 10 0
ELD 77 101 77 101 / 0 10 10 0
TYR 76 102 79 101 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 76 104 78 103 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 74 100 75 100 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ077.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...26
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page