016
FXUS64 KSHV 291126
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
626 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AREAWIDE, AS AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 105 TO 109
DEGREES. CONTINUE TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY, HYDRATING WELL,
LIMITING OUTDOOR EXPOSURE, AND HAVING ACCESS TO AIR
CONDITIONING.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY, AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACKDOORS INTO THE REGION.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN AGAIN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND,
MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
THE CENTER OF THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT US HOT AND
DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
STATE OF NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT TEXAS PANHANDLE TODAY. HOWEVER,
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL ERODE A TAD. AT THE SAME
TIME, A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE CONUS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER, WILL ALLOW A WEAK COOL FRONT TO BACK DOOR INTO THE REGION
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TODAY. BUT, AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A
HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY, AS AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AGAIN, RESULTING IN
HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 105 TO 109 DEGREES. WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT, A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RETURN MOSTLY ACROSS OUR ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA FORECAST
ZONES, AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA THIS EVENING. SOME OF THIS
CONVECTION COULD LINGER INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON THURSDAY.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY, THE FRONT WILL SHIFT A
LITTLE MORE WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION, EVENTUALLY STALLING ALONG
A LINE FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO NEAR TEXARKANA TO AROUND THE
I-20 CORRIDOR OF NORTH LOUISIANA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE SAME LOCATIONS, AND
POSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
THIS RAIN AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER SHOULD BRING US SOME RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT. BECAUSE OF THIS, WE WILL HOLD OFF EXTENDING THE
CURRENT ADVISORY INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER, AREAS THAT AREN'T
EXPECTED TO RECEIVE PRECIPITATION COULD SEE HEAT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS, SO WE CAN'T RULE OUT AN ADVISORY FOR SOME LOCATIONS
DURING THIS PERIOD. BY FRIDAY, THE FRONT WILL RETREAT BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST, AS THE RIDGE WILL TRY TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE
REGION. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
AREAWIDE, AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER WIDESPREAD HEAT ADVISORY.
BUT, THIS PATTERN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE
WILL SHIFT WESTWARD. WITH A DEEP TROUGH REMAINING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS, THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT TO
MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE FLOW WILL
DRIVE ANOTHER WEAK COOL FRONT INTO THE REGION OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND, WITH THE FRONT STALLING SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR ON
SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN WITH THIS FRONT,
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 CORRIDOR DURING THE WEEKEND. AS OF
NOW, LONG-TERM PROGS HAVE DRY WEATHER RETURNING TO THE REGION FOR
THE FIRST PORTION NEXT WEEK, AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
SOUTH OF THE AREA. /20/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
FOR THE 12Z TAF PERIOD...IR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDESPREAD
HIGH AC AND CIRRUS SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SE OK AND SW AR AND
WHILE SOME OF THIS WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES SOUTH, FEEL LIKE
THIS CLOUD COVER IS DESTINED FOR OUR TERMINAL AIRSPACE LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. WHAT WILL ALSO COME SOUTH OR WILL ACTUALLY BACKDOOR
ITS WAY SOUTH AND WEST INTO OUR AIRSPACE IS A WEAK COLD FRONT AND
WITH THAT COLD FRONT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION ALONG
AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THIS MEANS VCTS FOR THE TXK/ELD/SHV AND
MLU TERMINALS AS EARLY AS 18-20Z AT THE ELD AND TXK TERMINALS AND
CLOSER TO 21-00Z FOR THE SHV AND MLU TERMINALS. TYR, GGG AND LFK
TERMINALS SHOULD STAY DRY. NOT SEEING LOW CEILINGS MOVING INTO OUR
DEEP EAST TEXAS TERMINALS THIS MORNING SO DID REMOVE THIS FROM THE
06Z TAF PACKAGE.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
ALTHOUGH SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS, AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CAN'T BE RULED OUT,
AS SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. /20/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 98 80 97 79 / 0 20 30 0
MLU 100 78 96 77 / 10 30 50 10
DEQ 99 75 95 75 / 20 20 30 0
TXK 98 78 96 77 / 20 20 40 10
ELD 97 76 94 75 / 20 30 50 10
TYR 100 79 100 79 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 100 78 99 78 / 0 10 10 0
LFK 97 76 99 77 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...13
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