304  
FXUS64 KSHV 271727  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
1127 AM CST THU FEB 27 2020  
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF  
THE WSW THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, A WEAK COLD FRONT  
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AFTER 28/11Z AND WINDS WILL BECOME  
NORTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 5 TO 10 MPH. /20/  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 1049 AM CST THU FEB 27 2020/  
 
UPDATE...  
 
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.  
OTHERWISE, THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. EXPECT SUNNY  
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE  
REGION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WSW BETWEEN 5 TO 10 MPH.  
 

 
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CST THU FEB 27 2020/  
 
SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE FOUR STATE  
REGION TODAY AND REMAINED ENTRENCHED, UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT,  
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLOWLY THROUGHOUT THE  
SHORT TERM FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY'S TEMPERATURES UNDER CLEAR TO  
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5 TO  
10 MPH TODAY AND SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT; FRIDAY,  
THEY WILL HAVE MORE OF A NORTHWEST COMPONENT. OVERALL, CONDITIONS  
WILL BE GREAT LEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. /35/  
 
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/  
 
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP DRY AIR INTO THE REGION FRIDAY  
NIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE LOUISIANA GULF  
COAST EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS BACK TO THE  
AREA. IN ADDITION, A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL PASS OVERHEAD SATURDAY.  
THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE  
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM WELL INTO THE 70S BOTH SATURDAY AND  
SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY, ADDITIONAL WARMING IS EXPECTED AS LOW-LEVEL  
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH  
LEE OF THE ROCKIES.  
 
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE ON  
THE INCREASE BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT MAJOR UPPER TROUGH DIGS  
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY IN THE WARM  
AIR ADVECTION REGIME AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS  
THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND BECOME MORE  
WIDESPREAD BY LATE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT  
WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE ARKLATEX PROVIDING A FOCUS  
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD  
AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A PERSISTENT BAND OF POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINFALL  
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 30, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA  
AN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS, WHERE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS  
OF THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.  
 
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY EMERGE FROM THE ROCKIES AND MOVE  
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. LARGE  
SCALE FORCING WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION  
IS EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE,  
BUT IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE  
AVAILABLE. THUS, THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER STILL CANNOT BE  
RULED OUT. AN INTERESTING NOTE IS THAT THE GFS HAS BEEN FAIRLY  
PERSISTENT IN KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE HEAVY PRECIP IN THE POST-  
FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT, WHICH WOULD GREATLY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR  
SEVERE CONVECTION. MOST OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH REGARDING THE  
OCCURRENCE OF RAINFALL, THE CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE  
FRONT AND SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW.  
 
CN  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
SHV 56 37 64 41 / 0 0 0 0  
MLU 55 36 63 39 / 0 0 0 0  
DEQ 54 33 63 35 / 0 0 0 0  
TXK 55 36 62 38 / 0 0 0 0  
ELD 55 36 63 37 / 0 0 0 0  
TYR 57 36 65 42 / 0 0 0 0  
GGG 57 36 65 40 / 0 0 0 0  
LFK 58 36 68 40 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
20  
 
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