162
FXUS64 KSHV 031844
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1244 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
- OUR FIRST RAINFALL OF THE NEW YEAR HAS BEEN RECORDED THIS
MORNING WITH LINGERING PATCHY DRIZZLE/FOG WITH SUN COMING.
- CHILLY MORNINGS AHEAD WITH CLEARING SKIES, LOWS DROP BACK
CLOSER TO THE NORMAL RANGE OF AVERAGES FOR EARLY JANUARY.
- OUR NEXT WARMING TREND IS GOING TO UNFOLD EARLY IN THE
SCHOOL/WORK WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
AS WE APPROACH THE NOON HOUR WE HAVE A LARGE RANGE OF
TEMPERATURES, BUT ALL COOLER THAN 24 HRS AGO THIS TIME. IT IS
STILL MID TO UPPER 40S IN S AR AND N LA WITH LOW TO MID 50S MOST
EVERYWHERE ELSE. THE 61 NOW IN LUFKIN IS OUR WARMEST AND FAR TO
THE NE IN EL DORADO IT IS 47 FOR OUR CURRENT EXTREMES OF TEMP. THE
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS COVERING NEARLY ALL OF OUR CWA
(COUNTY WARNING AREA) WITH THESE PESKY LOW CLOUDS (FROM 0 TO 2KFT)
THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR ARRIVED OVER THE
WARMER GROUND. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE GREY WITH BLUE SKIES
EXPECTED TO UNFOLD FOR MUCH OF AREA OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS.
WE DIDN'T SEE THE FULL MOON SET THIS MORNING, BUT IT WILL STILL
BE SUPER AFTER SUNDOWN AT 5:23PM WITH THE NEARLY FULL MOON RISING
AT 5:46PM IN THE EAST, NORTHEAST. THE FAIR SKIES TONIGHT WILL
ALLOW US TO FALL TO TOWARD THE COMING DEW POINTS OVERNIGHT, WITH
MID 30S IN OUR FAR NORTH AND A FEW UPPER 30S AND MOSTLY LOW 40S BY
DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. KEEP IN MIND AVERAGES FOR EARLY JANUARY ARE
UPPER 30S AND UPPER 50S FOR THE LOW AND HIGH IN SHREVEPORT WITH
MINOR FLUXES DOWN ANOTHER 5 DEGREES OR SO ELSEWHERE. AFTER THE
CHILLY START, HIGHS WILL CLIMB BACK ABOUT 20 DEGREES (DIURNAL
AVERAGE) AND SEE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20.
SO LITTLE CHANGE FOR SUNDAY WITH THIS CURRENT AIR MASS EXCEPT A
LOT MORE SUNSHINE AND THE WANING NE WINDS SHIFTING MID TO LATE
DAY TO SE AGAIN. NOT MUCH AIR/TEMP ADVECTION OVERNIGHT, SO ANOTHER
CHILLY START TO THE SCHOOL/WORK WEEK. HOWEVER, THE WARMING TREND
TAKES OFF BY NOON ON MONDAY. OUR HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT BACK IN THE
70S AND HEADED BACK TOWARD RECORD TERRITORY AROUND 80 THROUGH
MIDWEEK. THIS BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL FLATTEN QUICKLY
BY MIDWEEK AND START TO BUCKLE BACK TO SW FLOW AS THE PARENT LOW
MOVES ONSHORE OVER BAJA. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE VERY WELL NOW
THAT THIS 560DAM CORE LOW WILL FILL AND OPEN UP IN THE PATTERN
WITH AN OPEN WAVE DEEP TROUGH. MEANWHILE, THE PACIFIC NW U.S. WILL
SEE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE CATCH UP AND PHASE INTO THE LONGWAVE AS IS
CROSSES THE MS RIVER VALLEY BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
SO MOST OF THE RAIN WILL HAVE COMING WILL FALL LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE MODELS SPIN UP THE MERGING SHORT WAVE TO A
DEEP 524DAM LOW OVER THE MIDWEST U.S. UNFORTUNATELY, NOT MUCH
HELP FOR OUR DROUGHT IMPROVEMENT AS ANOTHER BIG RIDGE PUSH OVER A
WEAKER E PACIFIC LOW EITHER OVER AZ/MEX ON GFS OR STILL WELL
OFFSHORE ON ECMWF, AS THE LA NINA CONTINUES. THE WPC HAS PARED ON
OUR DAYS 5-7 QPF TO MOSTLY TENTH TO QUARTER INCH AMOUNTS, BUT
STILL HALF INCH TO ONE INCH ALONG AND NORTH OF OUR I-30 CORRIDOR.
THE CPC YESTERDAY HAD OUR 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK WARMER AND MUCH WETTER,
BUT ALAS THAT NEEDED RAINFALL IS SLIPPING AWAY YET AGAIN. /24/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
FOR THE 03/18Z TAF UPDATE...WIDESPREAD MVFR TO LIFR CEILINGS
CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE AIRSPACE ABOVE ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING
AND WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT THROUGH THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY, WE HAVE SEEN
WIDESPREAD REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH A FEW
TERMINALS ARE STARTING TO RETURN BACK TO P6SM LATE THIS MORNING.
WHILE WE WILL SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO OUR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FOR MOST TERMINALS, KMLU, KTXK,
KLFK, AND KGGG WILL HAVE SOME LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY THIS MORNING, BUT THEY SHOULD BEGIN
TO RELAX SOME AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. ADDITIONAL LOW CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR SOME
TERMINALS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. /33/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 554 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 43 63 46 72 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 38 60 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 36 57 38 68 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 40 59 45 71 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 34 57 39 68 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 43 64 48 71 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 41 63 45 71 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 43 66 44 71 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...33
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