885
FXUS64 KSHV 130620
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
120 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
- DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND, ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES.
- A PATTERN SHIFT WILL BRING A RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES COULD INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
A QUIET NIGHT IS ON TAP ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION UNDER SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. THIS SHOULD YIELD CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT, WHICH IS IDEA FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S AREAWIDE TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME, NOT
EXPECTED FOG DEVELOPMENT, PUT SOME LOCALIZE ISOLATED PATCHY FOG IS
NOT OUT THE QUESTION, ESPECIALLY UNDER THESE CONDITIONS. FOR
TOMORROW, EXPECT A LARGE UPPER RIDGE TO EXTEND FROM WEST TEXAS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES. THIS WILL PUT OUR
REGION IN NORTHWEST FLOW, AS DEEP TROUGHING SETTLES ACROSS THE
CONUS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. DESPITE THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE, WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S AREAWIDE. A FEW ISOLATED 90 DEGREE
READINGS CAN'T BE RULED OUT. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DRIVE A WEAK COOL FRONT INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER, MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT, SO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. WE SHOULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES IN
WAKE OF THE FRONT. THOSE AREAS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH AND EAST OF
A LINE FROM MOUNT PLEASANT TEXAS TO JENA LOUISIANA. HOWEVER, THE
SLIGHT COOLING TREND WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, AS THE FRONT WILL
QUICKLY LIFT BACK THROUGH THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT, BRINGING A
RETURN OF WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. BUT, THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY, KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, THE
UPPER PATTERN WILL SHIFT INTO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WHILE
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. LONG-TERM
PROGS ARE SUGGESTING SOME DISTURBANCES COULD MOVE INTO THE REGION
ALONG THE FLOW, BRINGING A RETURN IN RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THESE RAIN CHANCES COULD BE
ON THE INCREASE BY THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, AS MODELS ARE
TRYING TO BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. /20/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
FOR THE 13/06Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE COURSE OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT AREA
TERMINALS. THE ONLY POTENTIAL EXCEPTION WILL BE VSBY REDUCTIONS
OVERNIGHT AT SHELTERED TERMINALS WITH THE COMBINATION OF CALMING
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES, MOST LIKELY IMPACTING KLFK IN THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS AND CLEARING AFTER DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGHOUT WITH A GENERAL NORTHERLY COMPONENT.
/26/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK.
/20/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 64 89 69 90 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 61 86 65 89 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 58 83 64 87 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 61 88 68 90 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 58 85 65 89 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 65 89 68 88 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 64 89 69 89 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 64 90 67 89 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...26
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