611
FXUS64 KSHV 131950
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
150 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
- AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WILL BRING SOME SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
- MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER WILL RESUME FOLLOWING THE FRONT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES KEEPING
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
- THE PROLONGED DRY PERIOD COULD CAUSE SOME WILDFIRE CONCERNS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE REGION TODAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A CLOSED UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH, HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE
REGION, YIELDING THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER
CONDITIONS TODAY. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER, MOST OF THE REGION HAS
ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 60S, WHICH IS ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS,
A LARGE AREA OF RAIN, WHICH HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH, IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHEAST
INTO OUR DEEP EAST TEXAS ZONES. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, SHORT-
TERM PROGS ARE STILL HOLDING THIS AREA OF PRECIP TOGETHER AS IT
PUSHES INTO AND ACROSS OUR REGION. AT THIS TIME, THE MAJORITY OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO LINGER AND FALL FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR.
THE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES JUST
BEFORE DAYBREAK TOMORROW, AS THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER TROUGH
FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY PUSH INTO THE REGION IN WAKE OF THE TROUGH. CAN'T RULE OUT
SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT, MAINLY
ACROSS OUR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
FORECAST ZONES. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE. WIND ADVISORIES ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, AS SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20
MPH, BUT IT WILL BE BORDERLINE ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR EAST TEXAS
ZONES. REGARDLESS, THE PUBLIC SHOULD STILL EXERCISE CAUTION ON
AREA WATERWAYS, AS THOSE WINDS WILL MAKE FOR CHOPPY CONDITIONS.
DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. MORNING LOWS SHOULD FALL TO NEAR AND
BELOW FREEZING AREAWIDE, WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 50
DEGREES. A SLIGHT WARM-UP CAN BE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY, AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN. HOWEVER,
THIS WARMING TREND WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A RETURN OF SUB-
FREEZING MORNING LOWS AND HIGHS IN THE 50S THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ONE THING OF NOTE, WILDFIRE CONDITIONS COULD BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLEASE FOLLOW ALL LOCAL AND
STATE ORDINANCES ON OUTDOOR BURNING AND ACTIVITIES THAT INVOLVE
OPEN SPARKS OR FLAMES. /20/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
MID LEVEL CU FIELD. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, POSSIBLY MAKING IT FAR
ENOUGH NORTH WHERE WESTERN I-20 SITES HAVE VCSH INCLUDED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL MIGRATE EAST AS CLOUD DECKS LOWER TO
LOW VFR HEIGHTS. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM THE NORTH WILL THEN
BRING A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT TO THE REGION AND VCSH TO KELD AND
KMLU AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD OTHERWISE STAY
WESTERLY AT 5-10 KTS. /57/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 64 46 63 33 / 20 20 10 0
MLU 61 45 59 30 / 10 30 20 0
DEQ 66 39 57 23 / 0 10 10 0
TXK 64 45 60 28 / 0 10 10 0
ELD 63 42 58 26 / 0 10 20 0
TYR 65 44 62 31 / 20 20 10 0
GGG 65 43 63 30 / 20 20 10 0
LFK 60 43 64 34 / 20 20 10 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...57
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