602
FXUS64 KSHV 201924
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
224 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
- COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN WITH A COUPLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING.
- WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL
PERSIST WITH DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
THE EARLY AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC RIDGING ANCHORED
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY, WITH SFC WINDS ALREADY VEERING MORE SE
ON ITS BACKSIDE ACROSS N LA/E TX/SRN AR. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
WILL REMAIN NEGLISHABLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
INTO MUCH OF TONIGHT, BUT THE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN EXTENSIVE BAND OF CIRRUS THAT CONTINUES TO STREAM E
ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AHEAD AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM CNTRL/SW NM INTO NRN OLD MX. LARGE SCALE FORCING
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO ENHANCE CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS W TX INTO THE HILL COUNTRY/PORTIONS OF SE TX, ALTHOUGH SFC
OBS ON THE NRN FRINGES OF THE RA AREA STILL DEPICT LARGE
TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS, INDICATIVE OF THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR
STILL HANGING ON ACROSS THESE AREAS. WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL INCREASE/SPREAD N ACROSS CNTRL AND ECNTRL TX
OVERNIGHT, THE AIR MASS CLOSER TO HOME WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, UNTIL FORCING ALOFT BEGINS TO
INCREASE LATE/SLOWLY SPREAD E AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING TROUGH INTO
W TX. THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MAINTAINING
THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINS JUST OFF TO OUR W TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH
MOISTENING OF THE DRY COLUMN FROM THE TOP DOWN SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST SOME AREAS OF -RA/SPRINKLES TO INCREASE LATE ACROSS E TX.
HAVE EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A LITTLE FARTHER E THAN THE NBM
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE -RA THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN/MEASURED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE BIG COUNTRY NOW SPREADING INTO PORTIONS OF WRN N
TX WITH 11-12KFT CIGS, WITH THE RAIN AREA BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY ACROSS E TX AS IT GRADUALLY SPREADS E INTO
SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR/WRN LA THROUGH THE DAY. THE -RA SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME THOUGH AS IT ENCOUNTERS CONSIDERABLY
DRIER AIR OVER SRN AR/NCNTRL LA, WHILE DIMINISHING FROM THE W ONCE
THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT BEGINS TO TRAVERSE SRN AR/N LA BY AFTERNOON.
DID EXPAND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FARTHER E THAN THE NBM TUESDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SPRINKLES THAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TROUGH
AXIS, BUT OTHERWISE, THE DENSE ELEVATED CLOUD COVER AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME COOLING OF THE COLUMN WITH THE -RA SHOULD
RESULT IN CONSIDERABLY COOLER TEMPS FROM W TO E ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH THE LOWER LAYERS BEGINNING TO SATURATE, ALONG WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN BNDRY LYR RH'S, MIN TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE
TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH MORE NOTABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. THE LINGERING TAIL OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS PROGGED TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY, WHICH MAY FOCUS A CONTINUATION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH SOME INSOLATION SHOULD
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPS WITH THE HIGHER RH'S.
THE DEPARTURE OF THIS DISTURBANCE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL YIELD A
TEMPORARY REPRIEVE IN CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AS
WE AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL SWING E THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO OK/THE OZARKS THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL REINFORCE A WEAK COLD FRONT
SE THROUGH OK AND THE OZARKS FRIDAY, WITH THE ECMWF REMAINING MORE
BULLISH WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE SE SHIFT THROUGH OUR REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THAN THE GFS (WHICH HANGS THE FRONT UP JUST TO
OUR N OVER SE OK/WRN AR). SHOULD ENOUGH CONVECTION DEVELOP THROUGH
THE DAY ALONG THE FRONT, IT'S FEASIBLE THE THE FRONT MAY BECOME
MORE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED AS IT MOVES THROUGH PORTIONS OF OUR
AREA, THUS FOCUSING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
DAY ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING. THE ONLY CAVEAT IS THAT THE
PRIMARY FORCING WITH THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BECOME MORE
DISPLACED TO THE NNE THROUGH THE DAY. ATTM, NOT COMPLETELY SOLD
YET ON THE SEVERE THREAT AS OUTLOOKED BY THE DAY 5 OUTLOOK FROM
SPC, ALTHOUGH A CONDITIONAL THREAT WOULD BE POSSIBLE BASED ON THE
RESULTANT INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL BULK SHEAR. THE FRONTAL
PLACEMENT FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE KEY IN
DETERMINING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT, WHICH WOULD BE
DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE AS TO THE
MESOSCALE OR SYNOPTIC SPECIFICS REMAINS LOW GIVEN THE DISPARITIES
AMONGST THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES.
15
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 20/18Z TAF PERIOD. CIRRUS
CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH
LOW AC CIGS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP/ADVANCE NE THROUGH E TX AFTER
06Z TUESDAY, BEFORE ENTERING PORTIONS OF SW AR/WRN LA AFTER 12Z.
SOME AREAS OF -RA MAY ALSO BEGIN TO ENTER THE WRN SECTIONS OF E TX
BETWEEN 09-12Z, AFFECTING THE E TX TERMINALS BEFORE EVENTUALLY
NEARING TXK/SHV AFTER 12Z. IN ANY CASE, CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD OVER THESE AREAS
(BUT REMAIN VFR), ALTHOUGH LITTLE TO NO VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE
EXPECTED. ESE WINDS 5-10KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME SE BUT
DIMINISH TO 5KTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TUESDAY. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 55 70 57 78 / 10 40 20 40
MLU 51 78 58 82 / 0 10 20 20
DEQ 48 68 52 74 / 0 30 20 30
TXK 53 68 56 78 / 0 30 20 30
ELD 48 75 55 78 / 0 20 20 20
TYR 54 64 57 78 / 30 70 30 40
GGG 53 66 56 77 / 20 60 30 50
LFK 55 67 58 79 / 30 70 30 60
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...15/05
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