105
FXUS64 KSHV 071205
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
705 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
- WITH THE RAIN MOVING OUT CURRENTLY, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO CONTINUE TO END THE WORK WEEK.
- THE DRYING TREND WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS RAIN IS BACK IN THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
- CAN'T RULE OUT AT LEAST SOME STRONG STORMS THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
WE FINALLY DRY THROUGH THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PART OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
CURRENTLY SEEING PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE IN A VERY COOL,
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WHICH HAS SETTLED IN ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION
LATE THIS EVENING. THIS LIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE
SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BE
EAST OF OUR REGION NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. WHILE WE SHOULD
LOSE THE LOW CLOUD COVER TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST POST SUNRISE TODAY,
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND POST FRONTAL NORTHEAST WINDS
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING
MOSTLY FROM NEAR 70 TO THE MID 70S. BY THE TIME WE TRANSITION INTO
FRIDAY, LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AND WHILE THE UPPER FLOW
LOOKS RATHER BENIGN, WEAK FORCING IN THE FORM OF SOME ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RETURNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AT
LEAST ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN HALF DURING THE DAY AND MORE AREAWIDE
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
TEXAS HILL COUNTRY.
STILL THINK PROGS ARE UNDERDOING POPS ON SATURDAY AS FORCING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE SIGNIFICANT SO DID BEEF POPS
UP TO CHANCE NORTH AND LIKELY POPS SOUTH AND WE LOOK FOR THESE
POPS TO CONTINUE GOING UP THE CLOSER WE GET TO SATURDAY. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY IF THE
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY SOME OF THESE DETERMINISTIC PROGS CAN BE
BELIEVED NOT TO MENTION RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE TROUGH ITSELF. WHILE THE TROUGH AXIS EXITS OUR
REGION TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT, IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
ADDITIONAL FORCING ALOFT ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD PUSH
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING WITH IT
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR MOTHER'S DAY.
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO MUCH OF
TEXAS TO BEGIN THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
THE LOWER MISS VALLEY. THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL FLOW FOR
OUR REGION HEADLINED BY A DRYING AND WARMING TREND INTO THE MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
13
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
FOR THE 07/12Z TAF PERIOD, MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO AFFECT KLFK BUT
ALL OTHER TERMINALS HAVE RETURNED TO VFR. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY FILTER IN BEHIND THE NOW DEPARTED COLD FRONT. THE
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AT KLFK WILL SLOWLY SCOUR OUT THROUGH MID TO
LATE MORNING WITH JUST SOME LEFTOVER HIGH CIRRUS LINGERING DURING
THE DAY ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AIRSPACE ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL ALTOCU BY
LATER THIS EVENING. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE N/NE BETWEEN
5-10 KTS TODAY BEFORE TRENDING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
/19/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 74 58 77 63 / 0 0 30 40
MLU 74 56 77 62 / 0 0 30 40
DEQ 74 47 78 55 / 0 0 0 30
TXK 74 54 79 60 / 0 0 10 30
ELD 73 51 77 58 / 0 0 10 30
TYR 73 57 77 63 / 0 10 50 30
GGG 74 57 77 62 / 0 10 30 40
LFK 75 61 76 65 / 0 10 60 60
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...19
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