116
FXUS64 KSHV 101836
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
136 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
- FIRE DANGER THREAT SOON PEAKS WITH LOWERING RH THIS AFTERNOON
AND GUSTY WINDS STARTING TO EDGE OUT OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY.
- HIGH PRESSURE REFORMS OVERHEAD FOR US EARLY THIS WEEK AND
PROMISES MORE SUMMER-LIKE HEAT, EVEN IN THE MORNINGS TO COME.
- OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL AND A COLD FRONT REMAIN AT ODDS IN
THE LONG RANGE MODELS. NEXT WEEKEND MAY BE COOL OR STILL WARM.
MORE TO COME IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
AT 1PM, AREA TEMPS REMAINING ALL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND WILL BE
APPROACHING 90 LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE LATE AGAIN, BUT
SEEING SOME GUSTS IN CENTRAL LA AND PERHAPS NE LA IN THE COMING
HOURS. SO FAR, THE WIND FIELD AROUND POST TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS
HAS NOT EXPANDED INTO MUCH OF OUR AREA, BUT WITH FEW CLOUDS,
HEATING MAY BE HAMPERING THAT TO SOME EXTENT. WINDS VARY EASTERLY
FROM SE IN E TX TO E/NE IN LA. AR/OK ARE ALSO SE AND WE ARE
SEEING A FEW GUSTS IN TEENS AND LOW 20 MPH RANGE. THE CYCLONE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY AND OUR WINDS WILL SLACK GUSTS BY SUNSET
WHILE THE DISTANT HEAVY RAIN AREAS CLIMB THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.
OUR HEIGHTS ALOFT ARE LOWER, OWING TO THE UPPER LEVEL REFLECTION
OF ISAIAS. THESE LOWER HEIGHTS WILL EDGE AWAY WITH STORM,
RETURNING THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE MIDSOUTH
DURING SUNDAY, EXPANDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND
CLOSING OFF INTO A 591 DAM CONTOUR OVER OUR REGION DURING MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT AND SINKING AIR AND ELEVATED
HEIGHTS WILL BRING BACK THE 90S FOR SUNDAY AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS ON THE ECMWF AT 594DAM OVER MS BY EARLY
THURSDAY WITH THE LONG WAVE ENERGY IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
SPINNING IN A CORE UPPER LOW OVER UT WITH RAIN SHOWERS JUST TO
OUR NW AND HOLDING AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES BACK DOWN INTO AZ,
KEEPING OUR RAIN CHANCES AND HEATING ON HOLD. MEANWHILE, THE GFS
REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THAT CORE LOW LIFTING OUT IN THE PATTERN
AS A HUGE AIR MASS POURS OUT OF CANADA DURING FRIDAY. SO THE GFS
BREAKS DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE AND USHERS IN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WORK WEEK, ALONG THE ARRIVING COLD FRONT WITH
A 1041MB SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE DAKOTAS.
SO LOTS TO WORK OUT HERE IN THE LONG TERM, BUT GFS MAYBE GRABBING
TO MUCH CLIMO FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE PRIMARY ISSUE APPEARS TO BE
TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WHICH IS LIFTED INTO AZ/UT ALONG THE
OFFICIAL NHC TRACK WITH THE GFS. AND THE ECMWF LEAVES THE STORM
TO DECAY OVER THE SEA OF CORTEZ AND WESTERN MEXICAN COASTLINE. SO
WE SHALL SEE WHICH MODEL REIGNS (RAINS) SUPREME IN THE COMING
DAYS. HAPPY COLUMBUS DAY LONG WEEKEND WITH OUR WILDFIRE THREAT
RELAXING SOON, AS SUMMER RETURNS SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARMER
MORNINGS, WHILE HIGHS CONTINUE IN THE LOW TO SOME MID 90S. /24/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
FOR THE 10/18Z TAF UPDATE...THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR TODAY
WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON. WE HAVE SEEN SOME GUSTS AROUND 10 KTS THIS
MORNING, BUT THIS SHOULD INCREASE SOME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL. /33/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY WEATHER.
HOWEVER, PLEASE REPORT ANY WILDFIRES TO LOCAL OFFICIALS AS SOON AS
POSSIBLE. WITH GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BETWEEN 20 TO 35%, ANY WILDFIRES WILL BE CAPABLE OF RAPID GROWTH
AND SPREADING. /20/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 67 92 66 92 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 62 94 63 94 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 58 92 60 92 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 64 92 64 92 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 61 94 61 94 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 66 91 66 91 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 64 92 63 93 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 64 91 65 91 / 0 0 0 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...33
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