881
FXUS64 KSHV 092219
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
419 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
- MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY HELPS TO TAPER TEMPERATURES BACK 5-10 DEGREES
NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
- THE PASSAGE OF A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ATOP THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL YIELD LIGHT
RAINFALL TOTALS MAINLY ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS,
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SPREAD N INTO
EXTREME SE OK AND THE NRN SECTIONS OF SW AR AS OF THIS MIDDAY, WITH
THE VERY LOW STRATUS CIGS/PATCHY FG HAVING RECENTLY LIFTED/MIXED OUT
ACROSS SRN AR. WHILE ANY CU FIELD SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN CONFINED TO
SE TX/CNTRL LA THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS LIES,
THE SSWRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN DEEPENING OF THE
MOISTURE COLUMN LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY, WITH MORE EXTENSIVE
STRATUS CIG DEVELOPMENT DEVELOPING/BY/AFTER 06Z TUESDAY OVER
PORTIONS OF DEEP E AND SE TX INTO CNTRL/SRN LA. A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD ALSO MAINTAIN SOME WIND OVERNIGHT AS
WELL, THUS NEGATING THE GREATEST FG CONCERNS FARTHER S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND S LA PRIOR TO/BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AS A
RESULT, MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND, RANGING
SOME 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS WILL GIVE THE REGION A HEAD
START ON WARMING FOR THE DAY TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH THE LOW STATUS
SHIELD WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO MIX OUT COMPARED TO TODAY, WITH
INSOLATION MORE LIMITED AND THUS, SLIGHTLY "COOLER" TEMPS EXPECTED.
SOME SUBTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THOUGH DURING THE TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT TIMEFRAME AS THE CUT OFF LOW NOTED ON THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY JUST W OF THE BAJA COAST BEGINS TO DRIFT E ACROSS THE
PENINSULA INTO WRN OLD MX LATER TONIGHT, AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED
INTO THE SRN STREAM JET. THE LOW REMAINS PROGGED TO SLOWLY OPEN UP
TUESDAY OVER NRN OLD MX BEFORE CROSSING THE BIG BEND REGION
DURING THE EVENING, WHILE TRAVERSING OUR REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT INTO THE NW ZONES LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE EVENTUALLY BECOMING REINFORCED MORE S INTO
PORTIONS OF SRN AR JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE INCREASING SRN PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME
BEING ADVECTED NE AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
-SHRA DEVELOPMENT OVER SRN AND ERN OK TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
EXPANDING THROUGH THE DAY INTO CNTRL/NRN AR. DID EXPAND SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MENTION OVER SE OK AND THE NRN SECTIONS OF SW AR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE DEEPENING MOISTURE PROFILE AND
INCREASING ASCENT AHEAD OF THE DAMPENING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD
YIELD MORE IN THE WAY OF SCATTERED SHRA DEVELOPMENT OVER EXTREME
NE TX/SE OK/SW AR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THESE -SHRA COULD
SPREAD FARTHER S INTO MORE OF E TX/N LA WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY AS
WEAK FRONTAL FORCING DEVELOPS ALONG/JUST S OF THE COLD FRONT AS
IT SPREADS S. UNFORTUNATELY THOUGH, RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT WITH THIS EVENT, ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS WILL ADVECT
SSW TO AREAS MAINLY N OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY, AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS A WARMING TREND WILL AGAIN
COMMENCE THURSDAY AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT, WITH THE RETURN SRN LOW
LEVEL FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
BECOMING AMPLIFIED ALONG THE CA COAST INTO THE ERN PAC, BEFORE
SHIFTING E THROUGH THE DESERT SW FRIDAY AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY
SATURDAY. WHILE THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES ARE CONVERGING ON A TROUGH
PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, DISCREPANCIES
CONTINUE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE DEVELOPING/ATTENDANT SFC LOW, WHICH
WILL BE KEY AS TO THE EXTENT OF AN INSTABILITY AXIS. A FARTHER N
SOLUTION AS ADVERTISED BY THE EPS WOULD YIELD A GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR DEEPER CONVECTION (SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL)
THAN THE MORE SWD PLACEMENT OF THE GEFS, AND WILL CERTAINLY BEAR
WATCHING ESPECIALLY AS WE ROUND OUT THE FINAL FULL WEEKEND OF
MARDI GRAS FESTIVITIES.
15
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 412 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAILING ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AIRSPACE.
CIRRUS IS PLENTIFUL HOWEVER STREAMING ACROSS OUR AIRSPACE FROM THE
WEST. CU FIELD HAS SCATTERED OUT AND WAS CONFINED TO OUR FAR
SOUTHERN AIRSPACE BUT THAT WILL CHANGE OVERNIGHT AS MVFR CEILINGS
WILL COME STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM SE TX AND S LA OVERNIGHT. ALL
TERMINALS SHOULD HAVE PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS BY SUNRISE TUE
MORNING AND IT THE CLOUD COVER HAS NOT MADE IT TO THE TXK/ELD
TERMINALS BY SUNRISE THEY WILL SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THESE CEILINGS
SHOULD RISE TO LOW VFR VARIETY BY LATE MORNING BEFORE SCATTERING
OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LOOK FOR S WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS NEAR OR UNDER 10KTS. AFTER
SUNRISE TUE MORNING, WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SSW WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 10-16KTS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20-25KTS IN A
FEW LOCATIONS.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 61 78 61 74 / 0 0 20 20
MLU 57 77 58 72 / 0 10 20 20
DEQ 54 76 53 66 / 0 20 50 20
TXK 62 77 56 69 / 0 10 40 20
ELD 57 75 55 68 / 0 10 30 20
TYR 62 77 58 74 / 0 10 20 20
GGG 61 77 58 75 / 0 10 20 20
LFK 59 78 58 77 / 0 0 10 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...13
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