842
FXUS64 KSHV 250557
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1257 AM CDT FRI OCT 25 2024
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 908 PM CDT THU OCT 24 2024
AS OF 9 PM CDT, TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ONCE AGAIN,
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR MORE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS MOST OF DEEP EAST TEXAS. WITH WEATHER AND OBSERVED TRENDS
CONTINUING AS ANTICIPATED, FORECAST GRID ADJUSTMENTS WERE NOT
NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. /16/
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT THU OCT 24 2024
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THERE
IS A CU FIELD OVER NE TX FROM TYLER TO TEXARKANA AND UP INTO SW
AR OVER HOPE. OUR VAD WIND PROFILER IS SHOWING S AROUND 10KT UP TO
ABOUT 7-8KFT; JUST UNDER A NICE INVERSION NEAR H700. THE WINDS
ABOVE ARE MORE WESTERLY AND LIKELY VARY GREATLY IN DIRECTION
BASED ON OUR MORNING SOUNDING OBSERVATION. THE S/SW WINDS ARE
WORKING ON INCREASING THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S IN E TX, BUT STILL DRIER 40S AND LOW
50S ALONG AND EAST OF I-49. AIR TEMPS ARE ALREADY 90 AT TEXARKANA
AND TOUCHED THERE FOR SHREVEPORT. OF COURSE THE ASOS HIGH TEMP
FOR THE DAY NEEDS 3 OUT OF 5 MIN OBSERVING A GIVEN NUMBER BEFORE
ASSIGNING IT AS OFFICIAL. THE RECORD FOR KSHV IS 90, SO A TIE IS
IN THE OFFING IF NOT BREAK LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL TIGHTEN UP OUR SPREADS FROM LOWS TO
HIGHS, UNLIKE THE DESERT LIKE AIR OF LATE WITH THESE WARM DAYS
AND MUCH COOLER MORNINGS. WE SHOULD SETTLE WARMER TONIGHT WITH
SOME MID TO UPPER 50S AND A FEW LOWER 60S. THE LESS DRY AIR WILL
ALSO HELP PUT A GOVERNOR ON THE MORE EXTREME HIGHS TOO, SO WE DO
LOOK TO EASE BACK A BIT, PLUS MORE CLOUDS IN THE OFFING AREAWIDE
IN THE COMING DAYS. SO WITH THAT IN MIND, WE WILL PAIR BACK OUT OF
THE 90S AND LOOK TO KEEP MID TO UPPER 80S FOR A WHILE. SKIES WILL
BECOME MORE CLOUDY AS THE MOISTURE BUILDS AHEAD OF OUR WEAK
APPROACHING COOL FRONT THIS WEEKEND. AND WITH THAT, WE MAY SEE
SOME SHOWERS AROUND OUR I-30 AS SOON AS FRIDAY LATE DAY AND
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. /24/
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT THU OCT 24 2024
A LARGE 1032 MB AIR MASS WILL SLIDE EAST FROM IOWA EARLY ON
SATURDAY AND BRIEFLY PARK OVER OHIO LATER THIS WEEKEND. THIS AIR
MASS WILL SPREAD SOME NE WINDS DOWN THE MS RIVER VALLEY FOR A
LITTLE MORE SUBSTANTIAL COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, WE
MAY NOT EVEN GET DOWN TO AVERAGES FOR SOME LOCALES. THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FURTHER INCREASING DURING SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY AS THE WIND SHIFT BEGINS TO EDGE DOWN ACROSS OUR I-30
CORRIDOR. THIS COOL FRONT WILL BASICALLY TOUCH AND GO WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW RIGHT BACK AT IT BY MONDAY AND BECOMING GUSTY DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH AIR TEMPS TRENDING BACK UPWARDS.
THEN WE LOOK TO OUR NEXT COOL FRONT AND IT'S AIR MASS WHICH IS
NOT AS IMPRESSIVE, BUT IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST WILL DO BETTER
RAIN WISE ON THE SECOND ATTEMPT FOR MUCH MORE OF OUR FOUR-STATE
AREA. THE WPC QPF FOR THIS WEEKEND IS LIGHT AND MAINLY FOR OUR
I-30 CORRIDOR. THEN DAYS 6 AND 7 DEPICT MUCH BETTER COVERAGE FOR
MORE OF REGION AS THE MONTH ENDS, BUT GENERALLY STILL LIGHT
AMOUNTS NOT HELPING OUR DROUGHT SITUATION. /24/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT FRI OCT 25 2024
FOR THE 25/06Z TAF PERIOD...CURRENTLY VFR AND CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION. HOWEVER, LOW CLOUDS, AND SOME PATCHY FOG, IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 A FEW HOURS
BEFORE DAYBREAK. THIS WILL RESULT IN REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE THE LOW CIGS AND FOG DIMINISH. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFTERWARDS, WITH SSW WINDS 7 TO 10 MPH.
/20/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 64 87 63 85 / 10 10 30 10
MLU 59 88 60 83 / 0 10 20 10
DEQ 60 82 55 78 / 30 10 20 10
TXK 62 85 59 80 / 20 10 30 10
ELD 58 85 55 79 / 10 10 20 10
TYR 64 87 63 86 / 10 10 10 10
GGG 63 87 62 86 / 10 10 20 10
LFK 62 88 60 88 / 0 10 10 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...20
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page