895
FXUS64 KSHV 101146
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
646 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
- VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH MUCH DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
- DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS EAST.
- THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH LOWER 90S
RETURNING TO MANY LOCATIONS AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE PROLONGED
STRETCH OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WITH VERY DRY
NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS FLOW PATTERN IS DUE TO THE WESTWARD MIGRATION
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE, ALLOWING FOR A CONTINUATION OF SLIGHTLY
MILDER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT NE WINDS. THIS WILL YIELD DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S FOR HIGHS WITH PLEASANT OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY, WE
MAY BEGIN TO SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES CREEP BACK TOWARD 90 DEGREES IN
SOME LOCATIONS AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE EXPANDING BACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS TREND TOWARD INCREASINGLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE STRENGTH
AND PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS. WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AXIS
ORIENTED FROM SW TO NE ACROSS OUR REGION, EXPECT STRONG SUBSIDENCE
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS REGIME WILL BEGIN TO TAKE ON MORE
OF AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES AND STIFLE ANY
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT, EXPANDING
DROUGHT AND FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO GROW UNTIL
WE SEE SOME APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.
/19/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
FOR THE 10/12Z TAF PERIOD...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
AREAWIDE, WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER TODAY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. /20/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 85 60 88 63 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 84 57 86 58 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 83 57 84 57 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 85 58 88 60 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 80 54 84 56 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 85 60 87 62 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 85 57 87 59 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 88 58 87 59 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...20
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