324  
FXUS64 KSHV 282016  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
216 PM CST MON NOV 28 2022  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 213 PM CST MON NOV 28 2022  
 
AS OF THE 1730Z UPDATE, THE SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE MAJORITY  
OF THE ARKLATEX IN THE DAY 2 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK, FROM A MARGINAL  
RISK (LEVEL 1/5) WEST INCLUDING TEXARKANA, LONGVIEW AND TYLER, A  
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE REGION, INCLUDING  
SHREVEPORT, NATCHITOCHES AND LUFKIN, AND AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL  
3/5) EAST, INCLUDING EL DORADO, RUSTON AND MONROE.  
 
THE LATEST HI-RES MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THAT PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS  
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES AS EARLY AS 12Z, WITH A FEW PREDAWN  
RUMBLES OF THUNDER NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE BULK OF THE  
CONVECTION, HOWEVER, DOES NOT LOOK TO LIGHT UP UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON  
OR LATE MORNING AT THE EARLIEST, BEGINNING TO DIMINISH FROM THE  
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS THE  
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES ITS APPROACH.  
 
BASED ON PROJECTED LAPSE RATES, THE FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION  
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE ELEVATED IN NATURE, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND  
WEST, AND WILL POSE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR HAIL DURING THIS EVENT.  
AS THE EVENT CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, THE CONVECTION  
WILL BECOME MORE SURFACED BASED, AND IT WILL BE THIS PHASE OF THE  
EVENT WHICH POSES THE GREATEST RISK FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT,  
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERNMOST ZONES OF THE ARKLATEX, INCLUDING  
RUSTON AND MONROE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ALL AREAS HIGHLIGHTED IN  
THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK HAVE A NONZERO TORNADO RISK FOR TOMORROW.  
THE PROBABILISTIC WIND THREAT HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY REDUCED IN INTENSITY  
IN THE LATEST UPDATE, WITH THE GREATEST RISK REMAINING ACROSS OUR  
EASTERN ZONES. FLOODING DOES NOT LOOK TO POSE A WIDESPREAD HAZARD  
WITH THIS EVENT, BASED ON THE PROJECTED FORWARD SPEED OF THE SYSTEM.  
 
FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE IN STORE, RANGING FROM THE MID TO  
UPPER 40S NORTH TO MID TO UPPER 50S SOUTH, WHERE RETURNING SOUTHERLY  
FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL SERVE TO PROVIDE INSULATING  
EFFECTS. WITH THE ARKLATEX DEEP WITHIN THE LARGE WARM SECTOR AHEAD  
OF THE FRONT, TOMORROW'S HIGHS LOOK TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S AREAWIDE,  
RANGING FROM LOWER 70S NORTH AND EAST TO UPPER 70S SOUTH AND WEST.  
IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY'S COLD FRONT, LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY  
MORNING WILL DROP PRECIPITOUSLY, WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION FUNNELING  
IN MIDDLE 30S NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR. DEPENDING ON THE POSITION  
OF THE BOUNDARY BY DAYBREAK, A CONSIDERABLE TEMPERATURE RANGE LOOKS  
TO BE IN PLACE, WITH NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA FALLING ONLY INTO THE  
LOWER 50S BY COMPARISON.  
 
/26/  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 213 PM CST MON NOV 28 2022  
 
STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE WAKE OF INTENSE CONVECTION TUESDAY EVENING  
WILL HAVE PUSHED ALMOST COMPLETELY THROUGH OUR REGION BY SUNRISE  
WEDNESDAY MORNING, TAKING ANY LINGERING RAIN CHANCES WITH IT. THIS  
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS HAS SOME COLD AIR BEHIND IT WITH HIGH  
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN THOSE  
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. AS A RESULT, WE ARE LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY  
OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES WED NIGHT, MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-  
20 CORRIDOR.  
 
BEYOND THE CHILLY DAY/NIGHT WED/WED NIGHT, A WARMING TREND WILL  
COMMENCE ACROSS OUR REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK. SFC RIDGING SHIFTS  
EAST OF OUR REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, ALLOWING FOR RETURNING  
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND A DESCENT WARMUP. THIS WARMUP THROUGH THE  
END OF THE WEEK WILL BE DUE IN PART TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW  
LEVEL FLOW AND IT WILL HELP TO INCREASE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE  
REGION AS WELL. WHILE A RELATIVELY ZONAL OR WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL  
COMMENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR LATE THURSDAY AND THROUGH  
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL  
GENERATE ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT FOR SMALL RAIN CHANCES AS EARLY AS  
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-20  
CORRIDOR.  
 
ONE OF THESE WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL HAVE A WEAK COLD FRONT  
ASSOCIATED WITH IT THAT WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO OUR REGION LATE  
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. STAYED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF  
GUIDANCE CONCERNING THIS WEAK SURFACE FEATURE BUT WINDS QUICKLY COME  
BACK AROUND TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT THE SURFACE FOR SUNDAY INTO  
MONDAY AND WE PLAY THE WHOLE SMALL CHANCE POPS GAME AGAIN ACROSS AT  
LEAST THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF OUR REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OF  
NEXT WEEK.  
 
13  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST MON NOV 28 2022  
 
FOR THE 28/18Z TAFS, FOG HAS GIVEN WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH SKC  
AT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.  
INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ON SOUTHERLY FLOW  
FUNNELING A RETURN OF MOISTURE TO AREA AIRSPACE. CONDITIONS WILL  
RABIDLY DETERIORATE BY 29/12Z, CONSISTENT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF  
FOG, AS WELL AS THE EARLY ARRIVAL OF PRECIP, PARTICULARLY  
IMPACTING SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TERMINALS, BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD  
THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME AND REMAIN SOUTHERLY  
THROUGHOUT, INCREASING IN SPEED TOMORROW MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KTS  
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.  
 
/26/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
SHV 55 76 44 56 / 20 50 10 0  
MLU 51 75 48 58 / 0 70 60 0  
DEQ 47 73 35 54 / 10 30 0 0  
TXK 53 74 40 54 / 10 50 0 0  
ELD 49 71 40 53 / 10 50 20 0  
TYR 56 77 42 55 / 20 30 0 0  
GGG 54 76 42 55 / 20 40 10 0  
LFK 55 79 46 60 / 20 40 10 0  
 

 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...26  
LONG TERM....13  
AVIATION...26  
 
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