389
FXUS64 KSHV 120538
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1238 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
- DRYING TREND BEGINS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND WITH THAT A
WARMING TREND AS WELL.
- A PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS BY THE WEEKEND WHICH HINTS AT A
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FORTHCOMING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY EXIT THE LOWER MISS
VALLEY CURRENTLY AND WE ARE LEFT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN ITS
WAKE. UPSTREAM SFC RIDGING WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD AND SHOULD BE
BISECTING OUR REGION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS, SHOULD
SEE A GOOD WARMUP ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. THAT WARMING
TREND WILL ONLY CONTINUE AS WE GO THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF
THE COUNTRY MIGRATES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY TODAY
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE PUSHING NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS SOME
LOCATIONS AS EARLY AS WED BUT ESPECIALLY THU INTO FRI.
BY THE WEEKEND, WE STILL SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE, THOUGH IT SHOULD HAVE MOVED JUST EAST OF OUR
REGION WITH UPSTREAM TROUGHING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
RESULTING IN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WE ALL KNOW WHAT THAT MEANS WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AND INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IF NOT
BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY TO START THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK NEXT WEEK. THIS LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK PATTERN SHIFT
APPEARS TO HANG AROUND A WHILE IF YOU BELIEVE THE MEDIUM RANGE
EXTENDED PROGS...THUS A VERY WET PERIOD NEXT WEEK MAY BE UPON US.
13
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
FOR THE 12/06Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES PUNCTUATED ONLY BY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUD DECKS. THE SOLE
EXCEPTION IS THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR DAYBREAK
THIS MORNING, WHICH WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NARROW DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS, WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON WINDS BECOMING CALM ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT,
RESUMING A NORTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY DURING THE DAY AT SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF NOT MUCH MORE THAN 5 KTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AGAIN AFTER SUNDOWN.
/26/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 84 58 88 64/ 0 0 0 0
MLU 83 58 88 63/ 0 0 0 0
DEQ 81 52 87 59/ 0 0 0 0
TXK 83 56 89 62/ 0 0 0 0
ELD 82 53 87 60/ 0 0 0 0
TYR 82 59 87 65/ 0 0 0 0
GGG 83 58 87 65/ 0 0 0 0
LFK 84 60 89 64/ 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...26
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