692  
FXUS64 KSHV 040230  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
930 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2020  
   
UPDATE
 
 
MAIN UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT HAVE BEEN MADE TO SKY  
COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RECENT TRENDS SEEN OFF SATELLITE IMAGERY.  
RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS  
OUR FAR SOUTHERN PARISHES OF THE CWA, HOWEVER, THEY SEEM TO BE  
TRENDING DOWN AS WELL NOW THAT WE ARE LOSING OUR DAYTIME HEATING.  
THAT BEING SAID NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NEEDED  
TONIGHT AS OTHER ELEMENTS ARE TRENDING AS FORECASTED. /33/  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 629 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2020/  
 
AVIATION...  
 
FOR THE 04/00Z TAFS...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE ONLY SITE  
CURRENTLY THAT COULD BE IMPACTED BY A STRAY SHOWER WOULD BE KLFK,  
SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OF VCTS IN FOR NOW. MEANWHILE, LATEST  
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS  
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. ASIDE FROM THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM  
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AND INTO SOME OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, VFR  
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD FOR MOST  
TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR KGGG, KLFK, AND KTYR WHERE  
SOME MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND 15Z.  
/33/  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2020/  
 
SHORT TERM.../THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/  
 
A WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR THE BOOT HEEL OF MISSOURI CONTINUES TO  
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH  
VERTICAL ASCENT FROM THIS TROUGH COMBINED WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY  
TO SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IN THE UNCAPPED  
ENVIRONMENT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONSIDERABLY MORE  
NUMEROUS FARTHER NORTH INTO ARKANSAS NEAR THE TROUGH. WEAK  
NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW MAY BRING SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY PORTIONS  
OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, SOUTHERN ARKANSAS, AND NORTH CENTRAL  
LOUISIANA THROUGH THIS EVENING. SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF  
DAYS, MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD  
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.  
 
ON THURSDAY, MORE DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BUT WILL LIKELY  
BE EVEN MORE LIMITED TO AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM EL DORADO AR TO  
COLFAX LA, WHERE THE BEST PLUME OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE  
LOCATED. FARTHER WEST, SUBSIDENCE FROM AN UPPER RIDGE OVER  
SOUTHWEST TEXAS SHOULD LARGELY DOMINATE AND KEEP THINGS MOSTLY  
DRY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE COULD  
RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND  
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER, THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE  
RIDGE WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO BRING THESE  
STORMS IN OUR FORECAST AREA.  
 
OTHERWISE, WARM AND MUGGY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE OF  
THUMB. WITH EVEN LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION ON  
THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLIMB EVERY HIGHER.  
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S CAN BE EXPECTED AREAWIDE.  
 
CN  
 
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK/  
 
THE MAIN STORY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE  
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF CRISTOBAL.  
 
CRISTOBAL IS CURRENTLY JUST ONSHORE IN THE STATE OF CAMPECHE  
(MEXICO), AND IS EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION BY  
TOMORROW AS IT OSCILLATES SLOWLY NEAR THE MEXICAN SHORE FOR ROUGHLY  
36 HOURS. BUT ON FRIDAY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) IS  
CONFIDENT THE SYSTEM WILL START TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE GULF OF  
MEXICO AND WILL LIKELY MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE LA COAST AROUND SUNDAY  
NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. CONSIDERING THIS EXPECTED LANDFALL TIME IS 4  
DAYS - AND CHANGE - DOWN THE ROAD FROM NOW, IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO  
BE CONFIDENT ON EXACT DETAILS OF TRACK. HOWEVER, UNDERLYING FORECAST  
MODEL CONSENSUS IS PRETTY DECENT AND CRISTOBAL WILL LIKELY BRING  
SOME IMPACT TO THE FOUR STATE REGION.  
 
FORTUNATELY, ALTHOUGH THE NHC IS CONFIDENT CRISTOBAL WILL PICK UP  
STRENGTH AGAIN AS HE HEADS THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO, THEY ARE NOT  
CONFIDENT HURRICANE STRENGTH WILL BE ATTAINABLE. THUS, SOME GUSTY  
WIND IMPACT IS POSSIBLE IN THE REGION (ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-20) ON  
MONDAY, BUT IT IS FAR FROM CERTAIN WHETHER OUR INLAND REGION WILL  
EVENTUALLY NEED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH; DEFINITELY AN ASPECT TO  
MONITOR CLOSELY. ANOTHER BIG ASPECT TO WATCH IS THE TREND IN WHERE  
THE CENTER IS TRACKING. THE NHC CURRENTLY HAS THE CENTER SET TO  
TRACK OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AND IF THIS HOLDS  
THE WORST WIND, TORNADO, AND HEAVY RAIN IMPACTS MIGHT BE LARGELY  
OVER THE ARKLAMISS AND TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER, SUBTLE TRENDS WEST IN  
THE CENTER TRACK WILL OPEN UP MORE OF OUR REGION TO THE ABOVE  
THREATS. OF COURSE, GIVEN THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST AND MODEL  
CONSENSUS, OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES DEFINITELY HAVE THE LEAST THREAT OF  
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.  
 
AS FAR AS THE RAIN THREAT GOES, A GOOD EXPECTED ASPECT TO CRISTOBAL  
WILL BE A DECENT FORWARD MOVEMENT (~15 MPH) AS IT COMES NORTH THROUGH  
THE REGION. THIS WILL LIMIT MAXIMUM THEORETICAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS  
THAT WILL BE POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH SOME HEAVY BULLSEYES OF 5+ INCHES  
CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTER TRACK.  
FOR NOW, WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS AS IT IS FAR TOO EARLY TO  
ISSUE ANY INLAND TROPICAL WATCHES OR FLASH FLOOD WATCHES.  
 
OTHERWISE, EXPECT A CONTINUED TREND TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER  
CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AND AGAIN BY TUESDAY INTO NEXT  
WEDNESDAY (ONCE THE REMNANTS OF CRISTOBAL GETS CLEAR OF OUR REGION).  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER  
MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF ZONES FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH THEY SHOULD BE  
MUCH MORE ISOLATED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE  
FOR THE OUTER-MOST BANDS OF CRISTOBAL TO START PIVOTING NORTH OF THE  
COAST AND INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OF COURSE,  
RAIN AND OTHER IMPACTS WILL BE INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEIR  
CONCENTRATED LOCATION WILL BE MAINLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE EXACT  
TRACK ENDS UP (AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE). /50/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
SHV 73 92 73 92 / 20 30 0 20  
MLU 72 91 73 91 / 30 40 10 40  
DEQ 70 91 71 93 / 10 20 10 10  
TXK 73 90 73 91 / 20 20 0 20  
ELD 70 91 71 92 / 20 40 10 30  
TYR 73 91 73 93 / 10 10 0 0  
GGG 72 92 73 93 / 20 10 0 10  
LFK 73 93 72 94 / 20 10 0 20  
 

 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
33/09/50  
 
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