663
FXUS64 KSHV 240016
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
616 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 153 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
- MORE NEAR AND SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND
LINGER UNTIL THE MID MORNING ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-49.
- TUESDAY WILL SEE STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
WITH VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, RETURNING THE ELEVATED
CONDITION OF THESE FIRE GROWTH AND SPREAD WEATHER CONCERNS.
- A MIDWEEK WARMING TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 153 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
GETTING TOWARD THE 60 DEGREE MARK AT THIS HOUR WITH STILL N/NW
WINDS AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY DOWN IN THE TEENS FOR AFTERNOON
MINIMUMS. THIS CHILLY AIR MASS WILL EDGE OVER ARKANSAS TODAY AND
SETTLE IN FOR ANOTHER COLD NIGHT. LIGHT FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THE MOISTURE IS SUPER LOW AND OUR SOILS HAVE ALSO DRIED OUT A
GOOD BIT NOW SINCE OUR LAST WETTING RAIN. THE AIR TEMPERATURES
WERE COLDEST OVER TX LAST NIGHT AND WILL OCCUR IN WIDESPREAD
FASHION ALONG AND EAST OF I-49 TONIGHT. DEW POINTS ARE MIXING
DOWN TO TEENS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND IT WILL TAKE MUCH OF
TUESDAY TO RETURN INLAND AS OUR WINDS SHIFT BACK TO S/SW IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING AIR MASS.
SO ALONG WITH PLENTY MORE SUNSHINE, OUR HIGHS TOMORROW WILL ALL
SEE THE 60S ACROSS OUR FOUR-STATE AREA, WITH A FEW LOW 70S NOT
OUTSIDE OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. IT'S THIS VERY DRY
CONTINENTAL AIR THAT ALLOWS FOR THESE EXTREME RANGES OF COLD IN
THE MORNING TO SO WARM IN THE AFTERNOON. USUALLY A DIURNAL RANGE
OF 20 DEGREES IS MORE COMMON FOR US, BUT WITH DEW POINTS SO DRY
WE'LL SEE LOW TO HIGH TEMPERATURE RANGES ON TUESDAY OF 30 TO 40
DEGREES. SO GET READY FOR MORE SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS FOR THE MID
TO LATE WEEK FORECAST WITH HIGHS INTO THE 80S AND LOWS CLIMBING
THROUGH THE 50S INTO THE 60S, BEFORE COOLING A BIT AHEAD OF THIS
WEEKEND AS OUR WIND SHIFTS BACK TO N/NW LIGHTLY AND BRIEFLY FOR
FRIDAY BEHIND OUR THURSDAY RAIN CHANCES.
WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND THIS NEXT UPPER
DISTURBANCE IN THE PATTERN TO BRING SOME SHOWERS, AND A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY EAST OF I-49 ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, THE DRIVING FORCE OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL SEE THE
SURFACE AIR MASS HAVING EYES FOR MUCH REAL ESTATE EAST OF THE MS
RIVER. WE WILL BE ON THE TAIL END CHARLIE OF MOISTURE FOCUS AS THE
MEAGER 1018MB SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY. AND
NOW IT APPREARS THAT THE FOLLOWING AIR MASS WILL BE MUCH COLDER
AND DRIER WITH A STRENGTH OF 1040+MB OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL
BE EVEN FARTHER EASTWARD, MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND STATES LATE THIS WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN WE
WILL SEE THE ONLY THE "FRINGE" BENEFITS OF RAIN CHANCES IN THIS
LATER WEEKEND SCENARIO.
FINALLY A BETTER CHANCE IN THIS WARM AND DRY LANINA PATTERN TO
SEE THE NEXT CORE UPPER LOW OFF OF THE PACIFIC MOVE OVER THE
DESERT SW U.S. AND FACILITATE NEEDED COVERAGE OF RAIN AGAIN FOR
US. THIS AS THE SOON TO BE WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER MEXICO
AND OUT INTO THE GULF OF AMERICA BY WEEKEND AFTER NEXT. THIS WILL
PRESENT A DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE HEADED BACK
OUR WAY. /24/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
FOR THE 24/00Z TAF UPDATE, VFR VIS/CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH WINDS WEAKENING TO NEAR CALM BEFORE RIDGING SHIFTS
FURTHER EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS TO
RETURN IN AN OTHERWISE PERSISTENTLY DRY ATMOSPHERE. /16/
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 153 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
CONCERN REMAINS ELEVATED ACROSS OUR FOUR STATE AREA WITH LOW
HUMIDITY AND SOME GUSTINESS BRIEFLY TODAY. WILDFIRE GROWTH AND
SPREAD WILL BE EVEN MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS THE DRY
CONTINENTAL AIR MASS MOVES AWAY FROM OUR AREA. THE SAFER
CONDITIONS OF THE RICH GULF OF AMERICA HUMID AIR HAS BEEN
DISPLACED WELL OFFSHORE AND WILL TAKE MUCH OF TOMORROW TO MOVE
BACK INLAND. THUS, WE HAVE ISSUED ANOTHER FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
FOR TUESDAY AS OUR WINDS WILL BE GUSTING FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY, IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING AIR MASS. IN
ADDITION, BURN BANS ARE COMING BACK ON LINE AS ISSUED BY THE
COUNTIES AND PARISHES IN OUR FOUR-STATE AREA.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 153 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
HOWEVER, OUR ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS WILL RAMP UP AGAIN
ON TUESDAY WITH STILL LOW RH AND GUSTY S/SW WINDS. THEREFORE,
RELAYING INFORMATION ON WILDFIRE ACTIVITY IS ENCOURAGED AREAWIDE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 32 68 54 79 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 28 64 50 76 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 26 66 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 33 68 52 78 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 25 64 48 74 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 36 70 56 82 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 33 69 53 80 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 33 69 55 80 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...16
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