099
FXUS64 KSHV 230722
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
222 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
- WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL LARGELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION TODAY, BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS OR STRAY STORM.
- WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, INCLUDING DAILY SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S CONVECTION, A VERY WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT
WILL RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WITH LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
RETURNING IN EARNEST THROUGH DAYBREAK THIS MORNING. EXPECT GRADUAL
SCATTERING OUT OF THESE LOW CLOUDS, EVENTUALLY YIELDING PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST WITH
WEAK UPPER RIDGING NOW IN PLACE FOLLOWING THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS. WITH PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW, EXPECT THE WARM TEMPERATURES
TO STICK AROUND INTO FRIDAY WITH SIMILAR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S.
AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NW AND WITH AN EMBEDDED TROUGH IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN SHIFTING SE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE OZARKS.
ALONG THE SFC FRONT, CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS IT ENTERS THE NW ZONES IN OUR REGION ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-30 WITH ADDITIONAL SE PROGRESSION EXPECTED ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-20 THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. A SURGE IN
MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 2000-3000 J/KG AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX WILL PROMOTE STRONG/RAPID UPSCALE GROWTH OF THUNDERSTORMS,
PROMOTING A RATHER BROAD AREA OF POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE
OZARKS WELL SOUTH INTO MUCH OF OUR REGION FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS LIKELY TO BE THE
PREDOMINANT CONCERN, ESPECIALLY WITH A LINEAR STORM MODE OF RAPID
ACCELERATION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. HOWEVER, VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE MODEST SHEAR SUCH THAT INDIVIDUAL
STORMS MAY POSE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES.
FOR NOW, SPC'S DAY 3 OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS MUCH OF OUR AREA IN SLIGHT
RISK AND THIS COULD BE EXPANDED/UPGRADED WITH FUTURE OUTLOOKS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL
STALL INVOF OF I-30 AND EVENTUALLY LIFT BACK NORTHWARD BY LATE
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ONLY REINFORCE WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION
AREAWIDE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS ADDITIONAL UPPER
LEVEL PERTURBATIONS ADVANCE THROUGH THE W/SW FLOW ALOFT. AS THESE
DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE WARM AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT STILL
IN PLACE, EXPECT THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK TO PERSIST ACROSS OUR NW
ZONES LATE SATURDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY BEFORE EXPANDING FARTHER
SE ON MONDAY WHEN A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING SE AND
NUDGE A COLD FRONT DEEPER INTO OUR REGION BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. MUCH LIKE THE WEEKEND FRONTAL BOUNDARY, IT DOESN'T LOOK
AS IF THE EARLY WEEK FRONT WILL CLEAR THE REGION EITHER DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF A STRONG AND EXPANSIVE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE JUST TO OUR
S/SW ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND MUCH OF THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF.
THEREFORE, THE FORECAST IS LIKELY TO REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND LIKELY BEYOND THAT WITH ANOTHER
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH LOOMING OUT WEST.
/19/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 154 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING,
09-18Z WITH S/SE WINDS TODAY. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED AFTN
THUNDERSTORM IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY, BUT THAT UPPER LOW OVERHEAD
YESTERDAY IS SLIDING OUT OF THE PICTURE OVER SE LA AND W MS. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD CONVECTION BACK INTO THE
ARKLATEX FRIDAY, SOME SEVERE WITH NO FROPA FOR DAYS. THE WEEKEND
WILL CONTINUE QUITE WARM WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY. THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY A.M.
/24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, BUT
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 84 69 83 66 / 20 10 50 60
MLU 85 66 86 66 / 20 0 60 80
DEQ 80 64 78 58 / 20 40 80 50
TXK 84 68 82 64 / 20 30 70 60
ELD 83 64 81 61 / 20 10 70 70
TYR 83 69 83 67 / 20 10 30 40
GGG 84 68 83 65 / 20 10 40 50
LFK 84 68 86 68 / 20 10 30 30
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...24
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