282
FXUS64 KSHV 161218
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
618 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
- ANOTHER WARM START, BUT SHIFTING WINDS FROM SW TO SE FOR MOST
OF US, AND A WEAK FRONT BRINGS E/NE WINDS BRIEFLY TO OUR NORTH.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER 70S IN S AR, BUT KEEPING LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.
- MID TO LATE WEEK STILL WILL BRING IN SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL,
AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED LOWER IN THE LOW RANGE MODELS LATEST RUN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
WARM AND BREEZY SW WINDS ON SATURDAY EVEN HELPED TIE A RECORD
HIGH IN SHREVEPORT AT 85, WHICH WAS FIRST SET BACK IN 1921.
TODAY'S RECORD IS 87 FOR SHV AND WE WILL FALL SHORT AREA WIDE AS
OUR WINDS MAY START FROM THE SW, BUT WILL BE BACKING TO SE DURING
THE DAY. EVEN SOME E/NE WINDS FILTERING ACROSS THE DELTA REGION OF
S AR AND N LA LATE TODAY. THIS MAY BRING IN SOME 70S FOR HIGHS
THERE BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER, MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE WILL
KEEP THE LOWER 80S WIDESPREAD. SO WHILE IT DID LOOK POSSIBLE FOR
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT, THE MOISTURE IS
LACKING DEPTH AND THE FORCING IN MORE OR LESS E OF THE MS RIVER.
LATE ON MONDAY, A DEVELOPING SHORT WAVE SPREADS OUT OF THE PLAINS
AND WILL HELP RESUME THE SW FLOW AND BETTER MOISTURE FEEDING
NORTHWARD COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ALONG OUR I-30 CORRIDOR INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER, MOST OF OUR AREA
WILL KEEP A ZONAL FLOW WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WARM PATTERN OF
MORNING LOW CLOUDS, AFTERNOON SUNSHINE AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY AND MIDWEEK.
THE PACE OF LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S.
EARLY IN THE WEEK, AND HEAD INTO THE DESERT SW AND INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. THERE IS A WEAK LEAD SHORT WAVE IN THE DEVELOPING SW FLOW
ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY WITH BEST CHANCES FOR OUR AREA IN THE I-30
CORRIDOR WITH LITTLE TO NONE MAKING IT INTO OUR PARISHES. THE
MODELS TO APPEAR A LOT LESS VIGOROUS WITH THE QPF SIGNALS, SO
SOME OF THE HIGHER END AMOUNTS WILL NOW FALL SHORT OF MUCH OF
OF ANYTHING OVER 4 INCHES. WE DO HAVE A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DRAPED OVER OUR NW HALF LATE THIS WEEK.
THE MODELS OCCLUDE THE LOW MOVING OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND TEMPER
THE DEEPER TROPICAL IMPORT OF MOISTURE ON THE SW FLOW IN THE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH, BUT WE STILL LOOK TO SEE WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH
AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT. AS THE LOW OCCLUDES AND SLOWLY LIFTS NE,
THE AXIS OF MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS UNDERNEATH, WITH
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LINGERING NOW THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR ALL BUT OUR I-30 CORRIDOR.
WEAK HIGH OFF THE PACIFIC IS STILL LOOKING TO BE AROUND 1021MB
OVER N TX DURING SATURDAY.
AS FAR AS OUR TEMPERATURES GO, THE COOLER AIR WILL ALSO BE
LINGERING UNDER THE RAIN CLOUDS WITH STILL SOME LOW 80S EXPECTED
THURSDAY. THIS WILL STILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
BRINGING OUT THE MOST HEAVY ELEMENTS FOR THIS EVENT. AND THEN
FRIDAY WILL SEE COOLER 60S IN I-30, BUT STILL WARM AND MILD 70S TO
NEAR 80 IN THE PARISHES. BY SATURDAY WE SHOULD SEE A WIDE RANGE
OF 60S FOR HIGHS AND 40S FOR LOWS BY NEXT WEEKEND.
THE MODELS HAVE SUBSEQUENTLY SLOWED DOWN THE PACE OF THE
SECONDARY WEST COAST CORE UPPER LOW WITH FARTHER SOUTHWARD
PLACEMENT AS WELL, NOW SPREADING OVER BAJA AND THE SEA OF CORTEZ
INTO MEXICO, THEN FILLING AND WEAKENING ACROSS N TX DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SO LESS SEVERE, BUT MORE LIKELY TO BRING
DELAYS FOR THANKSGIVING TRAVELERS. /24/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 606 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
A LAYER OF IFR LOW OVC CIGS ARE ADVANCING NE ACROSS ETX THIS
MORNING, BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO NWLA. FURTHER SOUTH INTO DEEP ETX,
LFK CONTINUES TO FIGHT IFR/LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS AS DENSE FG
MOVES OVER THE TERMINAL GIVEN THE LACK OF THE LOW CLOUD COVERAGE
FOR THE TIME BEING. THIS AREA OF LOW CLOUD LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE NE THROUGH SUNRISE, WITH EXPECTATION THAT IT LIFTS AND
SCATTERS OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THAT BEING SAID, A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERING ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR THIS
EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR BKN/OVC CIGS TO RETURN, WITH BASES BELOW
3KFT. TERMINAL WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL HOLD A S/SW
DIRECTION TO START BEFORE BECOMING MORE SE/E LATER IN THE PERIOD.
THESE SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 5-10KT, THOUGH THEY MAY BECOME MORE
VRB AT TIMES GIVEN PROXIMITY TO THE BOUNDARY.
53
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 83 66 84 66 / 0 10 10 0
MLU 81 60 83 62 / 0 10 10 0
DEQ 77 57 80 63 / 0 10 20 10
TXK 81 63 82 66 / 0 10 20 10
ELD 79 58 79 62 / 0 10 20 0
TYR 83 65 83 66 / 0 10 10 0
GGG 83 63 83 64 / 0 10 10 0
LFK 84 64 84 64 / 0 10 10 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...53
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