182
FXUS64 KSHV 071817 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1217 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
- BURN BANS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX AS
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE.
- NEAR-RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH RETURN TO TYPICAL JANUARY TEMPERATURES (AND NEEDING
JACKETS) THIS WEEKEND.
- CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM IN AREAS OF LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
IN OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
A TEMPORARILY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY BISECTS THE FOUR
STATE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, ALTHOUGH THIS BOUNDARY
WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. STUBBORN
LOW CLOUDS AND LIFTING FOG SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BREAK
UP INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT WILL LIMIT THE SCALE OF THE
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH TEMPERATURES THERE WITH LOTS MORE SUNSHINE
ELSEWHERE KEEPING TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON
(DESPITE BEING NORTH OF THE FRONT). THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF
VIGOROUS DISTURBANCES IN STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
START APPROACHING THE ARKLATEX TONIGHT, WHICH WILL HELP SHOVE THE
AFOREMENTIONED STALLED FRONT NORTHWARD WHILE INCREASING LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW. IN TURN, THE LATTER WILL SPREAD WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP IN THE 50S
AND 60S. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN EASTERN ZONES OF
THE REGION, WITH POTENTIAL ELSEWHERE LIMITED BY INCREASING
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. THE INCOMING DISTURBANCE COULD SPREAD A
FEW SHOWERS INTO EXTREME NW ZONES VERY LATE TONIGHT, BUT THE VAST
MAJORITY OF AREAS SHOULD COUNT ON REMAINING DRY.
THE MAIN GLANCING BLOW OF THE INCOMING DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL
HAPPEN DURING THE DAY TOMORROW WITH AN ASSOCIATED DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INDUCING STRONG AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS IN OUR AREA. AT LEAST LOW LEVELS OF
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY WILL BUILD THROUGH THE DAY IN THE BULK OF
OUR AREA, BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS QUITE UBIQUITOUSLY SHOW A THERMAL
MID LEVEL CAP THAT WILL LIKELY PROVE HARD TO BREAK GIVEN THE
SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE BEING MUCH MORE
FOCUSED TO OUR N AND NW. THAT SAID, THERE ARE ENOUGH WIND SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR A VERY CONDITIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER RISK IN MANY AREAS IF SAID CAP CAN BREAK IN AT
LEAST ISOLATED FASHION. 12Z SHORT RANGE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS
(CAMS) ARE TRENDING TOWARD A CONSENSUS THAT THE CAP WILL LIKELY
NOT BREAK DURING THE DAY AND THIS RESULTED IN THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) REMOVING MOST OF THE MARGINAL SEVERE
WEATHER OUTLOOK IN OUR AREA AND ONLY KEEPING FAR NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN AREAS IN SAID RISK. OTHERWISE, AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED IN MANY AREAS, BASED MAINLY BELOW THE CAP.
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL KEEP VERY ANOMALOUSLY WARM
TEMPERATURES FOR JANUARY SOMEWHAT IN CHECK, BUT SOME DAILY RECORD
HIGHS STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. GIVEN THE DROUGHT AND GUSTY
WINDS, THERE IS SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERN, BUT HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL MITIGATE THE CONCERN TO WELL BELOW ANY SORT OF RED FLAG
CRITERIA.
THE FIRST DISTURBANCE MOVING OFF QUICKLY TO OUR NORTH TOMORROW
NIGHT WILL SHOVE THE SURFACE FRONT BRIEFLY TOWARD OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES WITH THE MAIN TROUGH ALOFT STARTING TO HEAD EAST IN OUR
DIRECTION BY DAYBREAK. THERE IS SOME SIGNAL IN CAM GUIDANCE THAT
THE INCREASING SYNOPTIC LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE IN OUR SE ZONES
COULD KICK OFF SOME STRONG CONVECTION THERE BEFORE DAYBREAK
FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH CHANCES OF THIS ACTIVITY BEING TRULY SEVERE
BEFORE 6 AM IS LOW. OTHERWISE, ANTICIPATE A FEW SHOWERS AND A
STRAY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM AROUND A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION
TOMORROW NIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S, ALTHOUGH A BIT OF COOLER
AIR WILL SNEAK INTO AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR BY LATE
TOMORROW NIGHT.
THE MAIN WINDOW OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR REGION FOR
THIS 7 DAY OFFICIAL FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE MAIN SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER TROUGH
ALOFT AND LINKED FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BOTH WIND
SHEAR AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT
FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVER THE LARGE BULK OF THE REGION
IN THIS TIME WINDOW, ALTHOUGH SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOCUSED ACROSS
OUR EASTERN ZONES WHERE THE SEVERE WEATHER INGREDIENTS ARE IN
GREATER SUPPLY AND NWP GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS MORE VIGOROUS IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, ALTHOUGH THE MAIN TORNADO RISK WILL BE MORE FOCUSED IN
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. SPC WILL BE UPDATING THEIR SEVERE WEATHER
OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME ADJUSTMENT TO THE
RISK LAYOUT IS POSSIBLE GIVEN TYPICAL UNCERTAINTIES WITH DYNAMIC
SYSTEMS 3 DAYS OUT IN THE FORECAST CYCLE. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN EASTERN ZONES, ALTHOUGH THE FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW. GIVEN THE DROUGHT, WIDESPREAD
DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD OBVIOUSLY BE HELPFUL TO KEEP THE
DROUGHT FROM WORSENING FURTHER IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT RAIN TO BE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONT CLEARING AND THE PERTURBED SW FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT ENDING. THEREAFTER, THE PATTERN WILL TURN COLDER AND
PRONE TO MORE DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. KEEP IN MIND, THE COLD WILL JUST BE TYPICAL FOR JANUARY AND
NOT COLDER THAN NORMAL - BUT IT WILL FEEL PRETTY CHILLY GIVEN THE
RECENT AND SHORT TERM ANOMALOUS WARMTH. RIGHT NOW THE COLDEST
NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN MANY AREAS SHOULD GET DOWN
NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW FREEZING. /50/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
FOR THE 07/18Z TAFS, SKIES ARE LARGELY REBOUNDING TO VFR ACROSS
AREA AIRSPACE THIS LATE MORNING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KLFK, WHERE
LOW VSBY AND CIGS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RECOVER. FURTHER IMPROVEMENT
IS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING
WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THICKENING INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AHEAD OF INCOMING RAINFALL. GUIDANCE HINTS AT PATCHY DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN OUR EAST AND SOUTH, WITH IFR VIS/CIG
IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT KELD, KMLU AND KLFK. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST NEAR DAYBREAK, WITH IMPACTS SPREADING
SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
SOUTHEASTERLY AND DUE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
OVERNIGHT AT SPEEDS OF 5 TO 12 KTS, BECOMING BREEZIER TOWARDS THE
END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. GUSTS OF 20 TO
30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EAST
TEXAS AIRSPACE.
/26/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY AS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 79 64 77 66 / 0 0 40 30
MLU 75 59 77 67 / 0 0 30 50
DEQ 72 53 73 52 / 0 10 80 30
TXK 75 59 74 61 / 0 0 70 40
ELD 75 55 73 61 / 0 0 40 60
TYR 79 65 77 60 / 0 0 40 10
GGG 78 63 77 62 / 0 0 50 20
LFK 78 64 76 64 / 0 0 40 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...50
AVIATION...26
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