635
FXUS64 KSHV 270709
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
209 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 111 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
- THE BREAK IN CONVECTION WILL LIKELY COME TO AN END FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE
INITIATE MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A LOW-END SEVERE RISK.
- THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND GREATER
FORCING ALOFT.
- THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY EASE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION BY MID
WEEK BUT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN UNSETTLED WEATHER
WITH A LATE WEEK TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD FROM THE DESERT SW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 111 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
THE PERSISTENT WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION REGIME REMAINS FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS. LOOKING ALOFT, AN EXPANSIVE RIDGE TO OUR SW ACROSS MEXICO
CONTINUES TO DEFLECT MOST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY FOR CONVECTION
TO OUR N/NW. WITH THAT SAID, RENEWED CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE
ACROSS OUR REGION LATER TODAY WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S
AND DIURNAL HEATING COMBINING TO INITIATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY GIVEN THE LACK OF UPPER
FORCING, A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD MANIFEST IN THIS ENVIRONMENT
ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO DURING THE PEAK OF
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR, LARGE HAIL WOULD BE
THE MOST LIKELY THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS WHILE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS OR EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO APPEAR MUCH LESS LIKELY AS NOTED IN
THE SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION COULD
LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE MOSTLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.
MOVING INTO TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT, A GREATER THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF
THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND BEGINS INTERACTING WITH
A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING FROM TX AROSS THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY.
EXPECT RAPID CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO OCCUR BY EARLY AFTERNOON OFF
TO OUR WEST BEFORE QUICKLY SHIFTING INTO OUR W/NW ZONES BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING.
SFC-BASED CAPE VALUES IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE, MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AROUND 8-9C/KM, AND MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION DURING THIS LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND
NORTH OF I-20 WHERE SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED A SLIGHT RISK. ALL SEVERE
MODES/THREATS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
APPEAR TO BE PRIMARY AT THIS TIME.
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH RESIDUAL CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF I-20 WITH THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY ADVANCING SOUTHWARD. THE FRONT
MAY NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR THE REGION BY MID WEEK, RESULTING IN SOME
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LINGERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT ACROSS THE DESERT SW. THIS
TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE EJECTING
EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SPILL IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR EARLY MAY. RAINFALL
TOTALS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS STILL APPEAR TO GENERALLY RANGE FROM
1-3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
/19/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 111 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
FOR THE 27/06Z TAFS, IFR CEILINGS ARE QUICKLY SPREADING NORTHWARD
ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND SHOULD AFFECT ALL TAF
SITES PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. AFTER SUNRISE, SSW SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN SPEED AREA TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS. HOWEVER,
VFR CONDITIONS MAY NOT RETURN UNTIL NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 27/20Z.
BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS SE OK, NE TX,
AND SW AR AFTER 27/21Z, WITH KTXK AND KELD BEING THE MOST LIKELY
SITES TO BE AFFECTED. HOWEVER, SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA BUT
CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW. FOR NOW, A MENTION OF VCTS WAS INCLUDED
ONLY AT KTXK LATE IN THE PERIOD.
/09/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 111 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY ON
TUESDAY.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 89 72 88 69 / 40 30 40 60
MLU 90 71 88 69 / 40 40 50 60
DEQ 86 64 81 60 / 40 40 80 80
TXK 89 70 85 66 / 40 40 70 80
ELD 87 66 85 64 / 50 50 60 80
TYR 88 71 87 69 / 30 20 40 50
GGG 88 70 88 68 / 30 30 40 50
LFK 90 72 91 70 / 30 20 20 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...09
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