086
FXUS64 KSHV 222112
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
412 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
- A COMBINATIONS OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND DIURNAL DRIVEN
CONVECTION WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
- DRIER AND WARMER DAY WILL FOLLOW ON TOMORROW UNDER A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE, ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST UNDER PREVAILING SOUTHERLY
FLOW. HOWEVER, WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
REGION.
- A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND,
INCLUDING A DAILY SEVERE WEATHER RISK EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING IN AN INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE. PWAT VALUES HAVE CLIMBED TO AROUND 1.3 TO 1.6 INCHES
TODAY, WHICH IS IN THE 90 PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
WITH DIURNAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON, THIS HAS SPARKED THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MUCH NEEDED SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
REGION, WHICH HAS BEEN ALSO BEEN AIDED BY A WEAK DEPARTING
DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR. SHORT-TERM PROGS
SUGGEST THIS CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. EXPECT A HUMID NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION, WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL TODAY. GENERALLY SPEAKING, WE
SHOULD SEE DRIER CONDITIONS ON TOMORROW, AS UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER, PROGS CONTINUE TO HINT THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH WEAKNESS OVER OUR NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA
ZONES FOR SOME DIURNAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION. I CAN'T COMPLETELY
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE REGION WITH DAYTIME HEATING, SO I KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS OVER
THE REST OF THE REGION.
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED. FIRST THING FIRST, ON FRIDAY, A COLD
FRONT WILL DIVE THROUGH THE PLAINS TOWARDS OUR REGION. ONGOING
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FRIDAY MORNING,
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION. MODELS SUGGEST
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP WITH DAYTIME
HEATING ALONG THE FRONT AND DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. ALL MODES
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN PLAY WITH THESE STORMS. THE STALLED
FRONT MAY ADVANCE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE LOUISIANA/ARKANSAS BORDER ON
SATURDAY/SUNDAY, BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD. THIS WILL GIVE US
A CHANCE FOR MORE ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY, BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
CHANCES, AND POTENTIALLY MORE SEVERE WEATHER. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH SOME LONG-TERM PROGS ARE HINTING
AT AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW WET PATTERN. SO...STAY TUNED!!!
/20/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST TERMINALS THROUGH 23/00Z WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING THEREAFTER. MVFR CEILINGS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER
23/06Z, POSSIBLY BECOMING IFR BY 23/12Z. CEILINGS TO CLIMB TO MVFR
THROUGH LATE-MORNING THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 8
KNOTS TODAY TO BECOME 5 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT, BECOMING SOUTH
AND INCREASING TO 10 KNOTS ON THURSDAY. /05/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT
LIKELY OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 79 63 84 68 / 40 20 20 0
MLU 81 63 85 66 / 30 10 20 0
DEQ 74 58 80 63 / 20 10 20 30
TXK 76 63 83 68 / 40 10 20 10
ELD 77 58 82 64 / 30 10 20 10
TYR 77 65 83 69 / 30 20 20 10
GGG 78 63 83 68 / 30 20 20 0
LFK 78 64 84 67 / 50 30 20 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...05
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