590
FXUS64 KSHV 191116
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
516 AM CST MON JAN 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WORK WEEK.
- WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY, BUT SHOULD ONLY
PROVIDE MINIMAL DROUGHT RELIEF (IF ANY) TO THE AREA.
- THERE IS SOME CONSENSUS OF AN ARCTIC INTRUSION OF VERY COLD
AIR THAT WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY, WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE CONTINUING REGARDING THE POTENTIAL, PLACEMENT, AND
TIMING FOR MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
THE LATE EVENING SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC RIDGING HAS BUILT INTO
THE NW GULF, ALTHOUGH STRONGER UPSTREAM RIDGING WAS NOTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE PLAINS STATES AND MIDWEST. THIS RENEWED SFC RIDGING
WAS BEST DEPICTED WITH THE WIND SHIFT IN THE SFC OBS OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE INTO NW OK/SE KS, WHICH WILL NOSE S OVERNIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY ENTER EXTREME NE TX/SW AR AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY BEFORE
EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH OF AN AIR MASS CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS WIND SHIFT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, BUT INSTEAD, WILL
ACT TO REINFORCE THE COOL AND DRY AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE.
DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE BELOW NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON,
ALTHOUGH AREAS OF CIRRUS SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE W AFTER DAYBREAK
ALONG THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGHING EXTENDING ACROSS THE
CNTRL AND ERN CONUS. THIS ELEVATED MOISTURE SHIELD SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM N TO S THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE THUS
ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO ERODE SOME OF THESE CIGS ALONG THE JET
STREAK AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER NIGHT OF
WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT ONCE SFC RIDGING BUILDS
INTO ERN OK/AR AND THE MID-SOUTH REGION, RESULTING IN GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY N OF I-20.
THIS BROAD TROUGHING REGIME WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS
TUESDAY, WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY TAP AMPLE PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM THE
CLOSED LOW OVER THE FAR ERN PACIFIC W OF BAJA. THE MEDIUM RANGE
PROGS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER W TX,
WHICH WILL AMPLIFY A SWRLY LLJ ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE, THUS
ADVECTING AN INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION LATE AND
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC FORCING ALONG THE LLJ AXIS
SHOULD AID IN SCATTERED -SHRA DEVELOPMENT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT,
FURTHER AIDED BY INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY OR JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS LATE TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS THE WRN
SECTIONS OF NE TX INTO SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR, WHILE ALSO INCREASING
POPS TO CATEGORICAL OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS SHRA
DEVELOPMENT INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY. WHILE MUCH NEEDED RAIN WILL
FALL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT, EXPECTED
AMOUNTS WILL DO LITTLE TO EASE OR IMPROVE THE ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
OUR FOCUS WILL THEN TURN TOWARDS LATE WEEK, AS THE 18Z MEDIUM
RANGE PROGS AS WELL AS THE 00Z GFS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SHALLOW
ARCTIC FRONT THAT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT S INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. CONSIDERABLY UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO HOW
DEEP AND COLD THIS AIR MASS WILL BE, ESPECIALLY AS THE BASE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED AND DEPARTING BROAD UPPER TROUGHING SHIFTS BACK N
AND BEGINS TO PULL AWAY INTO THE TN VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. MEANWHILE, THE MEDIUM RANGE PROGS ALSO SUGGEST THAT A
CLOSED LOW OFF THE CA/BAJA COAST WILL OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH AS IT
DRIFTS THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY THE SRN PLAINS NEXT
WEEKEND, TAPPING AN ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET WITH INCREASED PVA AND
OVERRUNNING RESULTING IN A MIXED WINTRY BAG OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
REGION. WHILE THE DETERMINISTIC 00Z GFS REMAINS RATHER BULLISH
WITH THE SHALLOW ARCTIC INTRUSION AND ENHANCED OVERRUNNING LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, A NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE
GEFS SUGGEST THAT THE EXTENT OF MIX WINTRY PRECIP WILL BE MORE
LIMITED. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE FOR THIS AREA, THE PROGS OFTEN DO
POORLY WITH THESE SHALLOW AIR MASSES AND ATTENDANT PRECIP, WITH
THE DEPTH/PLACEMENT OF THE ARCTIC (SUBFREEZING) AIR, DEPTH OF THE
WARM (ABOVE FREEZING) AIR ABOVE THE COLD AIR DOME, AND TIMING OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION/FORCING KEY FOR DETERMINING THE EXTENT OF ICING
IMPACTS. WHILE THE NBM (WHICH USUALLY RUNS A MODEL RUN BEHIND THE
DETERMINISTIC PROGS) HAS TRENDED SOME 15-20 DEGREES COLDER WITH
TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND, INCLUDING MORE WIDESPREAD SUBFREEZING TEMPS
AND WETTER (FROZEN) PRECIP, THIS PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE ONE THAT WILL LIKELY CHANGE FROM RUN TO
RUN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
15
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 513 AM CST MON JAN 19 2026
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING NORTHEAST
WINDS UP TO 8 KNOTS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS TODAY. WINDS TO BECOME
LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AFTER 20/00Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD ENDING 20/12Z. /05/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 59 31 58 44 / 0 0 0 30
MLU 56 28 54 38 / 0 0 0 10
DEQ 48 17 52 37 / 0 0 0 50
TXK 51 25 55 42 / 0 0 0 40
ELD 51 22 52 35 / 0 0 0 20
TYR 58 32 58 46 / 0 0 0 50
GGG 58 31 58 44 / 0 0 0 40
LFK 63 34 60 46 / 0 0 0 30
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...05
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