333  
FXUS64 KSHV 140550  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
1250 AM CDT WED APR 14 2021  
   
AVIATION
 
 
FOR THE 14/06Z TAF UPDATE, AN ACTIVE WEATHER SITUATION IS ONGOING  
AS A WARM FRONT BISECTS OUR AIRSPACE IN A LINE GENERALLY FROM KTYR  
TO KELD. VCTS/TSRA CONVECTION HAS WANED FOR NOW WITH REMNANT  
MVFR/IFR CIGS OVER OUR WESTERN TERMINALS, HOWEVER, THAT ACTIVITY  
WILL RETURN IN EARNEST BY 14/10Z, AND CLEAR ALL TERMINALS FROM  
WEST TO EAST BY 14/20Z. AFTER THE CONVECTION EXITS THE AREA, MVFR  
CIGS AND WINDS FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE  
REST OF THE PERIOD. /16/  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 909 PM CDT TUE APR 13 2021/  
 
UPDATE...  
 
UPDATED FORECAST WAS MINOR THIS EVENING, PERTAINING TO THE  
RETURNING WARM FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION AND ITS EFFECTS ON POPS FOR  
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.  
 
CHASING A LEFTWARD MOVING SUPERCELL ALONG A RETREATING WARM FRONT  
THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE TX WITH SEVERAL REPORTS OF  
SEVERE HAIL ALONG ITS PATH BEFORE IT FINALLY DISSIPATED ACROSS  
EASTERN HARRISON COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST CADDO PARISH. WE ARE STILL  
DEALING WITH SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF  
NE TX LOCATED ALONG AN INSTABILITY AXIS WHICH EXTENDS FROM SE TX  
INTO EXTREME NW LA AND SW AR. LATEST HRRR AND 00Z NAM OUTPUT  
SUGGESTS THAT OUR WESTERN THIRD WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE  
POSSIBILITY OF RENEWED CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS  
INSTABILITY AXIS AND THE NORTHWESTWARD MOVING WARM FRONT BEFORE  
BROAD SCALE LIFT INCREASES DRAMATICALLY LATE TONIGHT AND  
THEREFORE STORM COVERAGE DOES AS WELL AREAWIDE.  
 
PERTURBATION IN DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMING OUT OF THE  
TX HILL COUNTRY AND A DEVELOPING 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL  
GENERATE THE NECESSARY UPWARD AND ISENTROPIC FORCING FOR THE  
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE  
INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD WEAKEN OVERNIGHT, MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES  
ARE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SOME LARGE HAIL OVERNIGHT,  
MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST HALF, DEPICTED BEST BY SPC'S  
MAINTAINING A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS OUR REGION.  
 
ONLY CHANGE WAS TO REORGANIZE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE  
EVENING MORE TOWARDS THE WEST WITH LIKELY POPS AREAWIDE AS WE  
APPROACH SUNRISE WED MORNING.  
 
UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY...13.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
SHV 69 53 71 53 / 60 60 20 60  
MLU 68 51 70 52 / 80 50 20 40  
DEQ 67 49 70 49 / 50 30 10 60  
TXK 64 50 69 52 / 50 40 10 50  
ELD 64 48 70 48 / 60 40 10 40  
TYR 69 52 70 54 / 40 60 20 60  
GGG 69 52 70 52 / 50 60 20 60  
LFK 73 55 72 56 / 50 70 30 50  
 

 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
16/13  
 
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