323
FXUS64 KSHV 272338
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
538 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 116 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
- THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT USHERING IN SHARPLY COLDER AIR FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL ALLOW ANOTHER TROUGH PASSAGE ON
MONDAY, LEADING TO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND A LOW-END THREAT OF
SOME WINTRY MIXED PRECIPITATION IN SE OK/SW AR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 116 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
AS MORNING CLOUD COVER HAS FULLY EXITED THE REGION, AN ABUNDANCE
OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
NICELY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT,
THIS WILL ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR AN EVEN COLDER OVERNIGHT PERIOD
VERY CONDUCIVE TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO GO CALM. ANY CLOUD COVER WILL BE LIMITED TO JUST SOME VERY THIN
CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD AND SHOULD NOT LIMIT TEMPERATURES FALLING
OFF RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. SUNDAY MORNING LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH
THE 30S WITH OUR NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES LIKELY BOTTOMING OUT NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. OTHERWISE, MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE
AT LEAST A LIGHT FROST GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY WINDS OVERNIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY,
WINDS WILL SLOWLY VEER MORE E/SE WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
QUITE SIMILAR TO THOSE TODAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MOVING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, LOOK FOR MAJOR CHANGES STARTING WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AS LOW-LEVEL SE FLOW WILL PROVIDE FOR THE GRADUAL RECOVERY
OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN EJECTING TROUGH FROM THE ROCKIES. COMBINED
WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE, BROAD ASCENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WILL INDUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY ON
SATURDAY MORNING. THE THREAT OF MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL
COME BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ADVANCES THROUGH THE REGION.
WITH BETTER MOISTURE RECOVERY AND SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY ACROSS
OUR SE HALF, THE THREAT OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT OVER PARTS OF DEEP EAST TX AND INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN LA.
BEYOND THAT, RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD ALSO RANGE BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES
IN SOME AREAS SO A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL ALSO
INCLUDE MUCH OF OUR REGION DURING THE SAME TIMEFRAME ON SATURDAY.
CONVECTION SHOULD COMPLETELY EXIT THE REGION BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY
WITH A BRIEF DRYING OUT PERIOD, ALBEIT A RATHER COLD ONE WITH SOME
GUSTY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. MOVING INTO MONDAY, THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DIVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH INCREASED FORCING ALOFT AND AN OVERRUNNING SITUATION.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD RAIN EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, BUT A BRIEF WINDOW WHERE TEMPERATURES
MAY DROP BELOW FREEZING CANNOT BE RULED OUT PRIOR TO PRECIPITATION
EXITING THE REGION. THE AREA OF CONCERN IS PRIMARILY ACROSS SE OK
AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SW AR, MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG
THE OUACHITAS WHERE SOME WINTRY MIXED PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR
BRIEFLY BEFORE ALL OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS SHUNTED EASTWARD
WITH THE EJECTING TROUGH. REGARDLESS, EXPECT A VERY COLD START TO
DECEMBER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH A NEARLY WIDESPREAD FREEZE
LIKELY BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A MODEST WARM-UP
BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS.
/19/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 504 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
FEW CIRRUS ARE PASSING ACROSS THE AIRFIELDS THIS EVENING,
OTHERWISE SKC PREVAILS. DENSER CIRRUS ON FRIDAY WILL YIELD VFR
CEILINGS AREAWIDE BEFORE LOWERING FURTHER LATE IN THIS TAF PERIOD
TO AROUND 8-10KFT. WINDS TO BECOME CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
UNDER 5KTS AFTER SUNSET AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING SE
AT 8-12KTS BY MID-TO-LATE MORNING FRIDAY. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 29/00Z.
CK
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 116 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 38 62 46 65 / 0 0 60 90
MLU 34 58 41 62 / 0 0 10 80
DEQ 31 56 39 55 / 0 0 90 100
TXK 35 60 44 60 / 0 0 80 100
ELD 31 55 38 57 / 0 0 40 90
TYR 39 61 48 65 / 0 0 80 90
GGG 37 61 46 65 / 0 0 80 90
LFK 38 63 47 70 / 0 0 60 80
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...23
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