243  
FXUS64 KSHV 150219  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
919 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2022  
   
..NEW UPDATE
 
 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 909 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2022  
 
STABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH  
PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES,  
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
REGION. LOWER DEWPOINTS NORTH OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS  
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE  
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE OUACHITAS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON  
TRACK. NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME. /05/  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2022  
 
A COMPACT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NOW MOVING INLAND OVER EXTREME SOUTH  
TX IS BRINGING AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RIO GRANDE SOME LOCALLY  
SIGNIFICANT RAINS TODAY, BUT IN THE FOUR STATE REGION THE INCREASE  
MOIST LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM IS  
REALLY JUST RESULTING IN SCATTERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A  
FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY JUST DEEP EAST TEXAS (I.E., SOUTH OF A  
LINE FROM TYLER TX TO NATCHITOCHES LA). EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO  
DWINDLE QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH OTHERWISE QUIET, HOT, AND MUGGY  
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY PEAK IN THE  
MID TO UPPER 90S WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN MAX HEAT  
INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 100 TO 106 DEGREES. TONIGHT'S LOWS WILL  
BE IN THE MUGGY MID 70S IN A MAJORITY OF AREA.  
 
TOMORROW OUR REGION'S WEATHER WILL MAINLY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF  
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE VAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE  
EXTENDING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  
THE PERTURBED "NORTHWEST FLOW" PATTERN ON THE FAR EASTERN  
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL BE TO OUR NORTHEAST/EAST AND WILL  
INCREASE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GENERALLY AWAY FROM OUR  
AREA, ALTHOUGH SOME VERY ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS  
AND STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE ARKLAMISS. THE BIGGEST STORY  
TOMORROW WILL BE THE HEAT WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING FROM THE  
UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S AND RESULTING IN MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEAT  
INDEX VALUES IN THE 103 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE. THE WORST OF THE  
OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL BE IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES WHERE A HEAT  
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM NOON THROUGH 7 PM CDT TOMORROW.  
LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE IN THE VERY WARM MID TO UPPER 70S.  
/50/  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2022  
 
THE MAIN STORY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BE AGAIN  
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES. THAT SAID, WE WILL STILL HAVE TO GET THROUGH  
OPPRESSIVE HEAT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO ARRIVE AT THE PROMISED  
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES.  
 
OVER THE COURSE OF TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE HEAT DOME CENTERED  
TO OUR WEST WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FOCUSED AND AMPLIFIED TO  
OUR WEST, WHICH WILL, IN TURN, ALLOW THE PERTURBED "NORTHWEST  
FLOW" PORTION EAST OF THE RIDGE TO SAG BACK INTO THE REGION FROM  
THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. THIS SYNOPTIC TRANSITION WILL EVENTUALLY  
RESULT IN A PATTERN CHANGE, BUT THERMAL CAPPING AND THE LAGGING OF  
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ADVANCING SLOWLY FROM THE NORTH WILL  
PROLONG THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT FOR OUR REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS BOTH DAYS GENERALLY AROUND THE CENTURY  
MARK WITH HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SOME AREAS. BUT  
FINALLY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD  
PROVIDE A TRIGGER TO ERUPT VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN  
NORTHERN ZONES AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MIGRATE SOUTH INTO THE  
HEART OF THE REGION IN THE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
SOME WEAK SHEAR IN THE PATTERN, COMBINED WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY  
AND ENHANCED DOWNDRAFT CAPE, COULD YIELD POCKETS OF SEVERE STORMS  
CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20.  
 
THE INCOMING FRONT WILL LIKELY BE IN A POSITION TO TRIGGER  
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME AGAIN VIGOROUS, ON  
THURSDAY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. CHANCES OF RAIN FROM  
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATTER THURSDAY WILL BE HIGHEST OVER THE  
EASTERN HALF OF ZONES WHERE THE POTENTIAL TO RECEIVE RAINFALL  
AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH WILL ALSO BE A GOOD DEAL HIGHER IN COMPARISON  
TO LOCATIONS ACROSS MORE PARCHED AREAS OF EAST TX. THIS FRONT WILL  
AT LEAST BRING HEAT DOWN TO A FEW NOTCHES TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW  
NORMAL LEVELS FOR MID AUGUST AND, FORTUNATELY, THIS EBBING OF HEAT  
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL  
LIKELY BACK OFF SOME FRIDAY BEFORE THE FRONT HANGING UP IN THE  
VICINITY POTENTIALLY GETS ACTIVATED AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER  
LEVEL TROUGHING (AND A PATH FOR DISTURBANCES) REMAINS PLACE. /50/  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2022  
 
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS  
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD ENDING  
15/18Z. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF  
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS LFK FROM 15/12Z-15/16Z. OTHERWISE,  
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT TO BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10  
KNOTS ON MONDAY. /05/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
SHV 77 100 78 101 / 0 10 0 10  
MLU 76 99 76 99 / 0 10 10 20  
DEQ 72 102 73 102 / 0 10 10 20  
TXK 77 101 77 101 / 0 10 10 10  
ELD 73 97 74 97 / 0 10 10 10  
TYR 77 102 78 102 / 0 0 0 10  
GGG 76 101 76 101 / 0 0 0 10  
LFK 74 100 74 102 / 10 0 0 10  
 

 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ARZ050-051-  
059>061-070>073.  
 
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LAZ001>006-  
010>014-017>022.  
 
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR OKZ077.  
 
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ096-097-109-  
111-112-126-138-151>153-165>167.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...05  
LONG TERM....50  
AVIATION...05  
 
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