256
FXUS64 KSHV 070544
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1144 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
- WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, AND
FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGHS WILL SETTLE IN THE 70'S
AND 80'S.
- LITTLE TO NO PRECIP OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS DROUGHT CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
- A SURGE OF COLDER AIR BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND, AND INTO THE
START OF THE NEW WEEK WILL INTRODUCE THE CHANCE FOR NEAR TO
SUB-FREEZING OVERNIGHT LOWS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
ANOTHER MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS A BAND OF HIGH
CLOUDS WORKS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. ACROSS THE
SOUTH, A ROBUST LAYER OF LOW CLOUDS STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SE TEXAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THE PRESENCE OF
THE CLOUDS TONIGHT, ALONG WITH WHAT LOOKS TO BE A WIND FORECAST
THAT CALLS FOR THE WIND TO STICK AROUND, SHOULD LIMIT THE EXTENT
OF ANY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IMPACTS. THAT'S NOT TO SAY THAT THERE
WON'T BE INSTANCES OF PATCHY TO DENSE FOG ACROSS THE REGION, IT
JUST MEANS THAT THE ODDS OF WIDESPREAD DENSE OBSERVATIONS SIMILAR
TO EARLY THIS MORNING ARE LOWER.
TEMPERATURE WISE, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR AS A
SPREAD OF UPPER 70'S AND LOW TO MID 80'S ARE EXPECTED. IT WON'T BE
UNTIL A SERIES OF FRONTAL PASSAGES INTRODUCES A ROBUST AIRMASS
INTO THE REGION THAT WILL SINK DAYTIME HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY. FOR REFERENCE, THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE HIGH
IN SHREVEPORT ON SATURDAY COMPARED TO MONDAY IS ABOUT 30 DEGREES
COOLER. THIS GOES TO SHOW JUST HOW STRONG THIS AIRMASS IS,
ESPECIALLY FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. AT THE SAME TIME, THE
ARRIVAL OF THE AIRMASS AND PARTNERED HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
20'S AND LOW AND MID 30'S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE LOCAL
CLIMATE SITES TO GET A CRACK AT THEIR FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR EXTREME EAST AND
SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AM AS THE MAIN BOUNDARY
PUSHES THROUGH, BUT THE EVENING GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DISPLACE
THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING TO OUR EAST, THUS KEEPING THE HIGHER
POPS AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. THIS IS SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR
NOW, BUT WIDESPREAD RAIN PROSPECTS LOOK DISAPPOINTING IN THE LONG
TERM. THAT BEING SAID, AND ASIDE FROM THE BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AIR
TO START THE WEEK, ANOTHER GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING FOLLOWS THE DEEP
TROUGH. AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOK TO STAIR-STEP FROM THE MID 60'S INTO
THE MID 70'S BY THE TIME WE HIT NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
53
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
FOR THE 07/06Z TAF UPDATE...STILL SEEING WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS, HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME LOWER CLOUDS STARTING TO FILTER
IN FOR KSHV, KMLU, AND KELD. EXPECTING THIS TREND TO CONTINUE FOR
ALL TERMINALS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BRINGING WITH IT MVFR TO IFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS DUE TO LOWER CIGS AND SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY.
THAT BEING SAID, I THINK THAT THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN
SOURCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS INSTEAD OF THE VISIBILITY, ALTHOUGH FOR
THOSE THAT DO SEE REDUCED VISIBILITY, IT COULD BE AROUND 1 MILE OR
LESS. VFR CONDITIONS AND EITHER SKC OR SCT TO BKN 250 WILL RETURN BY
AROUND 07/17Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
/33/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST MON NOV 3 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 61 82 60 84 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 61 81 61 83 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 55 77 48 78 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 62 79 55 81 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 58 77 54 79 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 62 81 56 82 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 61 81 56 83 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 61 84 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...33
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page