078
FXUS64 KSHV 260623
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
123 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
- MUCH DRIER AND HOTTER WEATHER PATTERN IS STARTING TO SETTLE
INTO THE REGION, WHICH WILL BRING HAZARDOUS HEAT CONCERNS LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- ALTHOUGH THEY ARE LOW, NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK TO RETURN TO
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS IS SHOWING THAT RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO CONTROL
THE REGION AS WE HEAD DEEPER INTO THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL LINGER
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT, THE RAINFALL CEASES AND
THE HEAT INCREASES. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION, STARTING AS EARLY AS TODAY. ONE CAVEAT TO THAT,
WE THOUGHT TEMPERATURES WOULD BE WARMER ON THURSDAY, AND THEY
SEEMED TO UNDER PERFORM SO I DID TREND ON THE LOWER END OF
GUIDANCE FOR TODAY. THAT BEING SAID, I THINK WE WILL SEE SOME MID
90S ACROSS SOME OF OUR DEEP EAST TEXAS ZONES, SOME UPPER 80S
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES, AND THEN 90S FOR EVERYONE ELSE.
TEMPERATURES INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO ON SATURDAY AND THEN BY
SUNDAY WE WILL SEE EVERYONE IN THE 90S, WITH SOME UPPER 90S ACROSS
DEEP EAST TEXAS.
WE WILL NEED TO WATCH OUR HEAT INDEX VALUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THEY WILL BEGIN TO REACH DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. DEEP
EAST TEXAS WILL BE THE FIRST TO SEE THIS, WITH A FEW 105 DEGREE
VALUES SPRINKLED IN TODAY. WE REMAIN BORDERLINE FOR HEAT
ADVISORIES ON SATURDAY, WITH A FEW MORE AREAS REACH TOWARDS THAT
105 DEGREE MARK. SUNDAY COULD BE THE FIRST DAY WE START TO ISSUE
HEAT HEADLINES FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH MODELS TONIGHT
HAVE COME IN A LITTLE LOWER ON THESE VALUES. MONDAY AND TUESDAY
COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY, AND SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR ANY HEADLINES NEEDED. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION
ACROSS ANY PORTION OF THE REGION ISN'T EXPECTED TILL THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH AS EXPECTED, MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT. /33/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, VFR FOR SOME, BUT SOME BRIEF MVFR
CIGS WILL AFFECT TX SITES AND KSHV AROUND DAYBREAK INTO THE MID
MORNING. S/SW AND BECOME GUSTY WITH 10-15G20-30KT BY 15Z AND INTO
THE MID AFTERNOON, SLACKING A BIT AND BACKING TO S FOR OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LITTLE CHANGE INTO THE WEEKEND, EXCEPT A FEW LESS LOW
CLOUDS AS WE START TO DRY OUT WELL. SIMILAR PATTERN MAY ROUND OUT
THE MONTH WITH CONVECTION RETURNING WITH JULY UNDERNEATH THE
UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING FROM OVERHEAD UP INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY.
/24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. /05/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 92 77 94 77 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 92 77 94 77 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 89 76 92 76 / 10 0 0 0
TXK 92 77 94 77 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 91 77 93 76 / 0 0 10 0
TYR 92 77 95 77 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 92 77 94 77 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 93 76 95 76 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...24
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