124  
FXUS64 KSHV 190525  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
1225 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2024  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 924 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2024  
 
THE CENTER OF A 1027MB SFC RIDGE LATE THIS EVENING WAS LOCATED  
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND WHILE THE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF THIS RIDGE HAS CONTINUED TO  
DECOUPLE, WE CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ATTM.  
THIS COUPLED WITH VERY HIGH/THIN CIRRUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS  
OF OUR REGION HAS RESULTED IN AMBIENT HOURLY TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY  
HIGHER THAN OUR DIURNAL FORECAST TEMPERATURE TREND WOULD OTHERWISE  
SUGGEST. AS WE GO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT, THIS SURFACE  
RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE I-20  
CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE IN THE MORNING. 00Z NAM OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT  
THE THIN CIRRUS WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND AT LEAST THE SOUTHWEST  
HALF OF OUR REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT THE LIGHT WINDS MAY HELP  
TO COUNTER ACT THAT WITH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST UPDATE, DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO FORECAST MIN  
TEMPERATURES BUT DID ADJUST SKY GRIDS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE  
THIN CIRRUS. ALSO SLOWED THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD FALL  
SLIGHTLY AND ALSO ADDED AREAS OF FROST TO THE GRIDS.  
 
UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT...13.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2024  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE  
TO ADVECT COLD AIR AREAWIDE. A LATE SEASON LIGHT FREEZE IS  
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS, NORTHEAST TEXAS,  
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF NORTH LOUISIANA. COULD SEE LOW  
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS MCCURTAIN COUNTY TO  
AROUND THE FREEZING MARK OF 32 DEGREES AS FAR SOUTH AS I-20.  
 
SURFACE HIGH TO SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR SOUTH WINDS TO  
RETURN SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK BECOMING SOUTHWEST DURING THE  
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS AND MOISTURE TO  
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD  
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL AVERAGE IN THE  
MID 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID  
40S. /05/  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2024  
 
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING TO PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR DRY  
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE WITH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY APPROACHING 70  
DEGREES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S.  
 
PATTERN SHIFT EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SHIFTS  
EAST AND MOVES ACROSS THE ARKLATEX. INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION  
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE LOW AS UPPER-FLOW BECOMES  
SOUTHWEST. ADDITIONALLY, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF A  
SURFACE DRYLINE ACROSS EAST TEXAS WILL FURTHER AID IN  
DESTABILIZING THE ENVIRONMENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT INCREASED  
CONVECTION BEGINNING THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH  
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION WILL MAINLY OCCUR ON  
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE CONVECTION  
DIMINISHES AND EXITS THE REGION TO THE EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT  
PERIOD. AT THIS TIME, NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.  
 
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER-LOW WILL  
ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE  
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. ON SUNDAY, UPPER-FLOW TO BECOME  
SOUTHWEST, CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY  
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY  
SKIES, TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO RANGE FROM HIGHS IN THE  
70S TO LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. /05/  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2024  
 
FOR THE 19/06Z TAFS, UNRESTRICTED VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL,  
WITH WIDESPREAD SKC ASIDE FROM SCT TO FEW HIGH CIRRUS ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS AIRSPACE. AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN,  
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH SOME SITES NEARLY CALM  
BY DAYBREAK WHILE AREAS OF FROST DEVELOP. AFTER 19/12Z WINDS WILL  
BECOME SOUTHERLY, TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT MAXIMUM  
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS OF UP TO 15 KTS  
POSSIBLE.  
 
/26/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
SHV 66 45 71 54 / 0 0 0 30  
MLU 63 40 70 51 / 0 0 0 10  
DEQ 65 39 69 49 / 0 0 10 40  
TXK 66 44 69 52 / 0 0 0 40  
ELD 63 40 70 49 / 0 0 0 20  
TYR 66 48 69 55 / 0 0 0 40  
GGG 66 45 70 54 / 0 0 0 40  
LFK 67 46 70 53 / 0 0 0 30  
 

 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-  
059>061-070>073.  
 
LA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-  
012>014-019>022.  
 
OK...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ077.  
 
TX...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-  
108>112-124>126-138.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...05  
LONG TERM....05  
AVIATION...26  
 
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