044
FXUS64 KSHV 140556
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1256 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY AND TOMORROW.
SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN
THROUGHOUT, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR
OF EAST TEXAS.
- DRY AND QUIETER WEATHER WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE
MIDDLE 90S, POSING POTENTIAL HEAT RELATED HAZARDS TO SENSITIVE
GROUPS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
THE WEATHER STORY FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW IS THE
SOURCE OF CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT, DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU
CONSULT. AS OF THIS WRITING, SHORT RANGE MODELS (HRRR AND NAM 3 KM)
HAVE BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY, GIVING THE ARKLATEX ONLY VERY ISOLATED
SHOWERS. LONG RANGE MODELS, MEANWHILE, SPECIFICALLY THE ECMWF AND
GFS, CONTINUE TO DEVELOP BROAD AREAS OF SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR, WITH OUR DEEP EAST TEXAS ZONES AGAIN
OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH
FLOODING. WHILE COVERAGE AND DEGREE OF IMPACTS MAY BE NOTICEABLY
LESS THAN YESTERDAY, ERRING ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND CONTINUING TO
RUN WITH POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH LOOKS
TO RETROGRADE TODAY, PASSING WESTWARD OVER THE ARKLATEX TOMORROW AND
FAVORING FURTHER REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS OUR
NORTH EARLY, SPREADING AREAWIDE INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS WAS SEEN
YESTERDAY, THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHORT LIVED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTERS DURING THE COURSE OF THIS PROPAGATION MAY ADD LOCALIZED
IMPULSES OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BEYOND THE SKILL OF MODELS TO
CAPTURE. UNTIL THIS UPPER LEVEL FORCING MECHANISM CLEARS OUR REGION,
SCATTERED HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.
BY THURSDAY, THE LOW LOOKS TO HAVE MADE IT TO THE WEST OF THE
ARKLATEX, POTENTIALLY FORMING AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. SYNOPTIC STRUCTURE ASIDE, THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A RAPID
AND PRONOUNCED DOWNTREND IN OUR PRECIP CHANCES, WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS STARTING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
THROUGH TO THE END OF THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION AT THIS TIME IS AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS OUR
WESTERNMOST ZONES THURSDAY AFTERNOON, SEEMING TO RETAIN THE OUTER
IMPACTS OF THE LOW AND FAVORING A SLOWER RETROGRADE. HIGHS IN THE
80S TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S
BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
70S WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT.
/26/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
FOR THE 14/06Z TAF PERIOD, A MIXED BAG OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO BEGIN
THE TAF PERIOD, AND EXPECT LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TO BECOME MORE
COMMON ACROSS OUR AIRSPACE TOWARD DAYBREAK. AS A RESULT, MVFR/IFR
CIGS AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF OUR I-20
TERMINALS WHERE RECENT RAINFALL WAS PLENTIFUL. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
IS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING, AND THIS WILL OCCUR AS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AND EXPAND ONCE AGAIN AS HEATING INCREASES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILE A FRONTAL BNDRY CONTINUES TO BISECT OUR
AIRSPACE. THEREFORE, HAVE INCLUDED VCSH/VCTS AT MOST SITES DURING
MUCH OF TODAY AND MAY NEED TO PREVAIL TSRA AT SOME POINT FOR SITES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 IN FUTURE TAF CYCLES AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
INCREASES. LIGHT AND MOSTLY VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH THE BNDRY LINGERING AS SPEEDS AVERAGE
AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS WITH HIGHER GUSTS INVOF OF CONVECTION.
/19/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED ACROSS THE REGION,
PARTICULARLY FOR FLOODING CONCERNS IN DEEP EAST TEXAS. EVEN IF
ACTIVATION IS NOT LOCALLY REQUESTED, ANY REPORTS OF HAZARDOUS
WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE APPRECIATED.
/26/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 86 71 89 72 / 50 10 50 0
MLU 90 72 91 72 / 50 30 40 0
DEQ 89 69 86 68 / 10 20 70 10
TXK 90 72 89 72 / 20 20 70 10
ELD 90 70 87 70 / 30 30 70 0
TYR 85 71 89 72 / 50 10 40 10
GGG 85 70 89 71 / 50 10 50 10
LFK 81 70 87 71 / 70 10 40 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...19
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