460
FXUS64 KSHV 161134
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
534 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CST MON DEC 15 2025
- SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TODAY FOR
MID DECEMBER AS OUR REGION WAS REALLY ONLY SKIRTED BY THE BRUNT
OF THE COLDEST AIR THAT MISSED US TO THE EAST.
- WITH THE WARMER AIR RETURNING, MOISTURE WILL BE RETURNING AS
WELL WITH OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES SET UP FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON FRIDAY, THE HEAT IS ON THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CST MON DEC 15 2025
WEAK UPPER RIDGING TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO WEAK TROUGHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISS
VALLEY TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURNING TO OUR ENTIRE REGION TODAY/TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD
WARMUP AND WITH THAT WARMUP, INCREASING MOISTURE THAT SHOULD
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS ACROSS OUR REGION
BEGINNING TONIGHT. WEAK UPPER FORCING AND LOWER ISENTROPIC FORCING
WILL AID IN THIS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
A MUCH MORE POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY OUT
OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AND IT'S THIS SYSTEM THAT SHOULD
PROVIDE MORE IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR REGION. IN ADVANCE OF THIS
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, SFC DEWPOINTS OF AT LEAST 60 DEGREES
SHOULD RETURN TO OUR REGION DURING THE DAY THU, WITH READINGS
IN THE MIDDLE 60S BY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS OUR EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN THIRD WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SBCAPE VALUES MAYBE
PUSHING NEAR 1000J/KG AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 DEG/KM.
ALL THIS TO SAY, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS
ACROSS OUR EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN HALF LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES ALL THIS ACTIVITY TO OUR EAST THURSDAY
EVENING.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ON THU,
OUR UPPER LEVEL PATTERN QUICKLY TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWEST TO NEAR
ZONAL FLOW FOR FRIDAY WITH THIS FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. LIKEWISE, AFTER A BRIEF POST-FRONTAL COOL DOWN
ON FRIDAY, SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND THAT RESULTS IN A BIG WARMUP WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
ACROSS MOST AREAS FOR SAT AND SUN. THERE MAY BE A VERY WEAK WIND
SHIFT THAT BACKDOORS ITS WAY SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INTO OUR REGION
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF A
TEMPERATURE DECLINE IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY EVEN IF IT
HAPPENS TO MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE TX
HILL COUNTRY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THAT COMBINED WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL RESULT IN A VERY
WARM LATE DECEMBER WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS OUR REGION THAT REALLY
SHOWS NO SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN BEYOND THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK AND EVEN
TOWARDS CHRISTMAS DAY. THUS, IF YOU LIKE WARM WEATHER, THEN THIS
FORECAST IS FOR YOU.
13
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
FOR THE 16/12Z TAF UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. EXPECTING OVC SKIES
TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY FOR ALL TERMINALS. TOWARDS
THE END OF THE PERIOD WE SHOULD START TO SEE SOME MVFR CIGS START
TO TAKE OVER MOST OF OUR TERMINALS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE WILL BE
SOME RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO ADD ANY SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD. /33/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CST MON DEC 15 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG A STRONG COLD
FRONT THAT WILL IMPACT OUR REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 58 48 63 58 / 0 30 40 20
MLU 54 42 61 53 / 0 30 40 20
DEQ 53 40 58 51 / 0 20 40 50
TXK 56 46 60 56 / 0 30 40 50
ELD 52 40 57 51 / 0 30 40 30
TYR 59 51 64 59 / 0 30 40 20
GGG 58 47 63 57 / 0 30 40 30
LFK 60 48 65 57 / 0 40 40 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...33
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