019
FXUS64 KSHV 251814
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1214 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
- STRONG SOUTH WIND TODAY TO WEAKEN ON THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRIFTS SOUTH AROSS THE REGION.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY
ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES THU AFTN/NGT.
- SOUTH WINDS RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING INTO THE 80S AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT AND
SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF COMBINED WITH A SURFACE LOW
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN AN ENHANCED PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX ALLOWING FOR ELEVATED SOUTH WINDS
FROM 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE DEWPOINT VALUES UP AREAWIDE, FROM THE UPPER
50S THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS TO THE MID 60S BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S RETURNING TO THE
OUACHITAS BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER, MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT COMBINED WITH A WEAK LOW TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH LOUISIANA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARKANSAS ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SURFACE AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING FOR SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL AVERAGE IN THE 50S.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS ARKANSAS EARLY NEXT
WEEK ALLOWING FOR AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE ARKLATEX
FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ON TUESDAY
NIGHT CHARACTERIZED BY OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS EACH PERIOD. /05/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
A MIX OF MVFR WITH LIMITED VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW CIGS THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT HAVE HUNG
AROUND. WE SHOULD SEE SOME GRADUAL SCATTERING OUT OF THE LOW
CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A RETURN TO VFR FOR MOST AHEAD OF
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT RETURN OF SIMILAR LOW BKN/OVC CIGS.
EXPECTATION IS THAT THESE COULD BE LOWER WHEN COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT SO PERIODS OF MVFR ARE EXPECTED WITH IFR NOT ENTIRELY OUT
OF THE QUESTION IF CIGS OVER PERFORM. THESE LOW CIGS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE BACK END OF THE PERIOD WITH MANY NOT CLIMBING
ABOVE MVFR UNTIL AFTER 26/18Z. WINDS WILL STAY SOUTHERLY AND GUSTY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOULD BACK OFF A BIT OVERNIGHT AND
TURN MORE EASTERLY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD TOMORROW,
TRENDING AROUND 5KTS.
RK
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
SUSTAINED SOUTH WINDS FROM 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND INTO NORTH AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA. MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 40 PERCENT ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS TO NEAR 55 PERCENT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AS
MOISTURE INCREASES WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. DUE TO ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ALLOWING FOR DRY FUELS, A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS
BEEN ISSUED ALL FIRE DISTRICTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA,
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS, NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.
05
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 944 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS STILL NOT EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK.
HOWEVER, PLEASE CONTINUE TO RELAY INFORMATION ON WILDFIRE
ACTIVITY FOUR-STATE AREA WIDE, TO HELP OUR FIRST RESPONDERS
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 62 80 55 78 / 10 20 20 0
MLU 62 79 54 74 / 10 40 50 0
DEQ 50 77 44 75 / 10 10 10 0
TXK 59 79 51 77 / 10 20 10 0
ELD 57 78 48 75 / 10 30 20 0
TYR 61 81 53 79 / 0 10 10 0
GGG 60 81 52 79 / 0 10 10 0
LFK 62 82 57 80 / 0 10 10 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...53
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