197
FXUS64 KSHV 171913
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
113 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
- THE COLDEST AIR OF THIS WINTER SEASON IS POISED TO BRING LOW
TEMPERATURES IN TEENS AND 20S TONIGHT WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE MONDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES
MODERATE CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TONGUE OF ELEVATED MOISTURE ROUNDING
THE BASE OF A DEEPENING TROUGH AS A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DIVES
THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY. DESPITE THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE
AND FORCING ALOFT, THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN VERY
DRY AS INDICATED BY OUR 18Z KSHV SOUNDING. THUS, ANY RADAR ECHOES
REFLECTING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS VIRGA AS IT EVAPORATES THROUGH
THE VERY DRY LAYER OF AIR BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECKS. WITH
THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER, THE TEMPERATURE RISE HAS BEEN RATHER
SLOW THUS FAR WITH A RANGE OF MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-30 AND MOSTLY 40S ELSEWHERE.
AS CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEAR BEHIND THE EJECTING TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE
LATER THIS EVENING, TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A NOSEDIVE IN WHAT WILL
LIKELY BE OUR COLDEST NIGHT SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN OUR
EXTREME NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE LOWER TO MID 20S FARTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. WITH THIS PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SEVERAL HOURS BELOW FREEZING, COLD TEMPERATURE PRECAUTIONS SHOULD
BE MADE TO WINTERIZE OUTDOORS FOR THE PROTECTION OF PETS, PLANTS,
AND PLUMBING PIPES UNDER THESE POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.
FOR ALL INTENTS AND PURPOSES, TREAT THIS AS HARD FREEZE CONDITIONS
GIVEN THE EXPECTED DURATION BETWEEN 8-14 HOURS OF TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK ABOVE FREEZING AREAWIDE BY LATE
SUNDAY MORNING WITH A MODEST WARM-UP INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S
BY THE AFTERNOON UNDER ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS IN
STORE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, ALBEIT NOT QUITE TO THE EXTENT OF TONIGHT
WITH A RANGE OF MID 20S TO LOWER 30S BY COMPARISON. BY MONDAY, A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE AND HELP MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH ANOTHER AREAWIDE FREEZE ON MONDAY NIGHT. GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW BY MID-WEEK AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE NEXT TROUGH
ARRIVAL AND SUBSEQUENT FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. FORTUNATELY, THIS FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF
VERY MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL GIVEN OUR PERSISTENT DROUGHT AND FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. WE BRIEFLY DRY OUT FOR FRIDAY BEFORE ADDITIONAL
RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH A POTENTIALLY PROLONGED
PERIOD OF WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER. MORE CLARITY WILL FOLLOW OVER
THE NEXT WEEK AS THE SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS ARE BETTER RESOLVED.
/19/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
FOR THE 17/18Z TAFS, TWO CLOUD DECKS ARE IMPACTING THE ARKLATEX
AT THIS TIME, A DECK OF MID TO LOW CLOUDS ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND
EAST PUSHING NORTHEAST, AND A DECK OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SCT AND BKN CIGS MAY THICKEN TO OVC AT
TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. NORTH WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING GUSTY AT TIMES,
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHTER OVERNIGHT AND MORE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION
BY DAYBREAK, PIVOTING TO A MORE WESTERLY ORIENTATION BY THE END OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TODAY'S NORTH WINDS LOOK TO SWEEP THE
CLOUDS DECKS OUT, REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, WITH A FRESH OVC HIGH CLOUD DECK ARRIVING NEAR DAYBREAK
INTO THE MORNING.
/26/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 25 52 32 54 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 25 48 30 52 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 15 48 24 45 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 22 50 30 49 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 20 46 26 48 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 24 54 32 54 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 23 53 30 54 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 25 54 31 59 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...26
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