803
FXUS64 KSHV 111130
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
630 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
- UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVHD TODAY TAKING MUCH OF THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH IT TO OUR EAST BY LATE IN THE DAY.
- IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH, WE WILL BE LOOKING AT
INCREASING UPPER RIDGING FROM THE WEST.
- UPPER RIDGING MEANS DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH A
WARMING TREND AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
LONGWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SETUP ACROSS THE UPPER RED RIVER VALLEY
AND WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY OF SW AR, SE
OK AND NE TX BY MID MORNING WITH THE TROUGH AXIS EXITING OUR
NORTHEAST ZONES BY THIS EVENING. THROUGH SUNRISE, NOT AS CONCERNED
AS WE ONCE WERE WITH THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS
BUT UPPER FORCING IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH OUR
REGION OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION
BEGINS TO MOVE TO OUR EAST. HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
ORIENTED NEAR BUT ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR THROUGH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
BEYOND TODAY, SFC RIDGE AXIS TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY BUT ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY TRY TO BACKDOOR
ITS WAY INTO OUR REGION DURING THE DAY WED WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR A
RETURN TO NORTHERLY WINDS. A WEAK WIND SHIFT IS ABOUT ALL THIS
BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DO TO OUR REGION AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY WED INTO THU WILL BE NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS. THE WARMUP WILL BE DUE IN PART TO UPPER RIDGING THAT IS
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH THIS FEATURE MOVING
INTO THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY BY TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THU/THU NIGHT.
WILL BE WATCHING OUR NEXT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVING
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BY
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. LATEST GFS IS MUCH MORE VIGOROUS WITH THIS
TROUGH BY NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD AT THE VERY LEAST SUPPORT A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WHILE
THE ECMWF IS SUPPORTING MUCH MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH WHICH
WOULD NOT SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. LATEST NBM
OUTPUT IS MOSTLY DRY FOR SAT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR REGION FOR SUNDAY WHICH IS A HAPPY MEDIUM THIS FAR
OUT IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THE NEXT TROUGH EVOLUTION COMES INTO
BETTER PLAY.
13
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
FOR THE 11/12Z TAFS, ISOLATED LINGERING SHOWERS AND LAYERS OF LOW
TO MID CLOUD DECKS PREVAIL ACROSS ARKLATEX AIRSPACE AT THIS TIME.
VSBYS HAVE REMAINED VFR EXCEPT AT KMLU, WHICH HAS SEEN PERIODIC
DROPS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS, ACCOUNTED FOR WITH A TEMPO GROUP.
AREAWIDE, CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR THROUGH THE
MORNING AND VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON, SCATTERING OUT AND LARGELY
CLEARING BY EVENING, ASIDE FROM POSSIBLE HIGH CLOUDS REMAINING
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY ORIENTATION,
BECOMING MORE ELEVATED TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF UP TO 15 KTS POSSIBLE.
/26/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 77 59 83 61 / 50 10 0 0
MLU 79 58 83 59 / 50 0 0 0
DEQ 79 51 81 55 / 20 0 0 0
TXK 79 55 83 59 / 20 0 0 0
ELD 78 53 83 56 / 30 0 0 0
TYR 76 59 81 62 / 40 0 0 0
GGG 76 59 82 61 / 50 0 0 0
LFK 78 62 84 64 / 60 10 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...26
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