661
FXUS64 KSHV 290717
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
117 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
- COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY CLEARED OUR ENTIRE FOUR-STATE REGION AS
STRONG AND GUSTY N/NW WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY,
INCREASING FIRE DANGER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
- STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES DROPPING
OFF SOME 40-50 DEGREES FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE, MAINTAINING
BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH
WINDS TRENDING BACK S/SW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK ON FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
THE STARK CONTRAST IN AIR MASSES WE'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT FOR DAYS
NOW HAS FINALLY COME TO FRUITION WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT EARLIER LAST EVENING. POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY
PLUMMETED TO NEAR FREEZING IN OUR EXTREME NW ZONES WITH A FEW MORE
DEGREES TO FALL PRIOR TO DAYBREAK AS SKIES CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT.
FARTHER SE, CLOUDS CONTINUE LAG QUITE A BIT COMPARED TO THE FRONT
BUT GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXIT,
GUSTY N/NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH VERY DRY AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE RESULTING LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THUS, A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS
BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 6 PM TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE CONDITIONS. IN
THESE CONDITIONS, PERSONS SHOULD REFRAIN FROM OUTDOOR BURNING AND
ANY ACTIVITIES THAT INVOLVE OPEN SPARKS OR FLAMES LIKE FIREWORKS.
ASIDE FROM THE FIRE DANGER TODAY, THE OTHER MAJOR WEATHER STORY
INVOLVES THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THAT WILL FOLLOW TONIGHT AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT. AN AREAWIDE FREEZE IS EXPECTED BOTH NIGHTS
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING THROUGH THE 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TUESDAY WON'T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF RECOVERY AS HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S IF AT ALL
IN MOST LOCATIONS. IF WE DO MANAGE TO REACH LOWER 50S, IT WOULD
MOST LIKELY BE IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY.
FORTUNATELY, WINDS WILL SUBSIDE RATHER QUICKLY TONIGHT AND REMAIN
RATHER LIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK AS STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.
A WARMING TREND WILL FINALLY COMMENCE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. AT THE
SAME TIME, THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL ALSO BE SHIFTING BACK TO A
MORE ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING
BY LATER NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL ONLY SERVE TO PROPEL TEMPERATURES
EVEN HIGHER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO
THE 60S AND 70S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT LOOK PROGGED TO ARRIVE AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEK LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE QUITE MEAGER
FOR NOW, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS OUR FAR
EASTERN ZONES DURING THIS LATE WEEK TO EARLY WEEKEND TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE, DON'T EXPECT MUCH FANFARE WITH THIS DISTURBANCE OR THE
SFC FRONT AS TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE ON THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
/19/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 29/06Z TAF PERIOD. A
STRONG COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED OUT OF THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
INTO CNTRL LA INTO FAR ERN LA, ALTHOUGH EXTENSIVE 4-8KFT CIGS WILL
LINGER IN WAKE OF THE FRONT THROUGH A PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH AND SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK. MEANWHILE, CIRRUS CIGS WILL SPREAD E ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY, WITH AC CIGS POSSIBLE ACROSS E TX FROM MID-
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NNW WINDS 12-20KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25-30KTS OVERNIGHT WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TO 12-15KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS AFTER 15Z. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
ALTHOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED THIS WEEK, ASSISTANCE FROM
SPOTTERS MAY BE HELPFUL TODAY WITH AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AND HOT
SPOT MONITORING FOR WILDFIRES.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 50 29 51 30 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 48 27 47 28 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 42 21 47 25 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 47 26 49 30 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 45 24 46 26 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 47 28 51 31 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 48 27 50 29 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 51 29 52 28 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-
059>061-070>073.
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-
010>014-017>022.
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR OKZ077.
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...15
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