573
FXUS64 KSHV 261121
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
621 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
- TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL (UPPER 90S) THIS
AFTERNOON.
- HAZARDOUS HEAT RETURNS THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
ELEVATED POTENTIALS OF TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS IN THE LOWER 100S
AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
- A PATTERN CHANGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK WILL YIELD A RETURN TO
NEAR-NORMAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
THE HEAT IS ON FOR THE ARK-LA-TEX OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
RIDGING BUILDS BACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS.
THIS WILL DISPLACE ANY REAL HOPE OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE END OF
THE WEEK, WHILE TRAPPING STAGNANT SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE
SURFACE. THIS WILL REDUCE THE EFFICIENCY OF MECHANICAL MIXING,
ESPECIALLY WITH THE THERMAL EFFECTS OF INSOLATION PRODUCING MEAGER
DIFFERENCES IN DEW POINT DEPRESSION TRENDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
(TDS STILL IN THE LOWER 70S). GIVEN THE PREDISPOSITION OF THIS
PATTERN TO MOIST AIR, OUR CONCERN IS WITH HOW HAZARDOUS THIS WILL
MAKE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS BY MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY (A 60% TO 80% PROBABILITY OF LOWER 100S) AND HEAT HAZARD
PRODUCT ISSUANCE IS LIKELY AS A RESULT. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SOME "LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL" WITH RIDGING
FINALLY STARTING TO BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK
AND THE END OF THE MONTH. SYNOPTIC-SCALE FLOW ALOFT GAINS MORE OF
A MERIDIONAL ORIENTATION AS A TROUGHING PATTERN TAKES SHAPE
BETWEEN ATLANTIC RIDGING FURTHER EAST AND INTERMOUNTAIN RIDGING TO
OUR WEST. A RETURN TO NORMAL SUMMERTIME HEAT (MID-90S) IS LIKELY
AS A RESULT BY THIS TIME WITH A COINCIDING INCREASE IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRODUCTIVE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TO FORM IN THE
AFTERNOONS WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
WITH LIGHT WINDS NOT OFFERING MUCH RELIEF, DEW POINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE LOW-TO-MID 70S THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE AT 105-108 DEGREES AS A
RESULT, AND HAZARDOUS HEAT WILL BE IMPACTFUL FOR ALL GROUPS OF
PEOPLE AND NOT JUST HEAT-SENSITIVE GROUPS. PRECAUTIONS AND
AWARENESS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CONTINUE NOW AGAINST THE ELEVATED
POTENTIAL FOR HEAT ILLNESSES. THIS INCLUDES (AND IS NOT LIMITED
TO) ALTERING OUTDOOR PLANS, TAKING FREQUENT BREAKS IF YOU MUST BE
OUTSIDE, CHECKING THE BACKSEAT OF YOUR VEHICLE, AND KNOWING THE
SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION IN ADDITION TO HEAT STROKE.
/16/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
NOT LOOKING LIKE WE WILL BE ABLE TO GET IFR/MVFR CEILINGS TO OUR
I-20 CORRIDOR TERMINALS IN NE TX THIS MORNING BUT STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT THAT POSSIBILITY, IN ADDITION TO A BRIEF REDUCTION IN
VSBY THRU 13-14Z. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE 24HR TAF PERIOD.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 98 78 98 79 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 98 78 99 78 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 99 74 99 74 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 100 78 100 79 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 98 76 98 76 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 98 78 99 78 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 98 77 98 77 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 96 76 97 76 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR OKZ077.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...13
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