833
FXUS64 KSHV 151742
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1142 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 950 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
- WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BACKDOOR INTO OUR REGION ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT THAT WILL TEMPER TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
- EVEN WITH THE WEAK COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.
- NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL
FOR PORTIONS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
WOKE UP THIS MORNING TO MORE PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NE LA AS WELL AS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND MORE IN THE WAY
OF LOW CLOUD COVER NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR.
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE TODAY COMPARED TO FRIDAY AND AS
A RESULT, WE ARE STARTING TO SCATTER OUT THAT CLOUD COVER ACROSS
OUR NORTHWEST THIRD WHILE WE HAVE LOST THE FOG ACROSS OUR SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST. WITH THAT TIGHTER GRADIENT IN PLACE, ALREADY SEEING
SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 15KTS ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS IN NE
TX WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 24KTS...ALBEIT WITH HIGH HUMIDITY IN
PLACE BUT AS WE HEAT UP THIS AFTERNOON, WE WILL SEE THAT HUMIDITY
BEGIN DROPPING AND THUS, THE WILDFIRE THREAT WILL INCREASE AS WE
HAVE SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL AFTERNOONS ACROSS OUR REGION.
OUR REGION REMAINS UNDER RELATIVELY WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND TROUGHING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THAT WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION
BUT THERE IS A SURFACE REFLECTION TO THIS DISTURBANCE IN THE FORM
OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BACKDOOR ITS WAY INTO OUR REGION ON
SUNDAY. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD MAKE DESCENT PROGRESS TO NEAR THE
I-20 CORRIDOR OF N LA BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY AND MAY CONTINUE
SLOWLY BACKDOORING TO NEAR THE I-49 CORRIDOR OF N LA SUNDAY NIGHT
BEFORE STALLING OUT. THERE WILL BE SOME SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR IN
THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY LATE SUNDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT BUT NOT
COLD AIR BY ANY MEANS. MEANWHILE, UPPER RIDGING TO OUR WEST WILL
QUICKLY MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY
MONDAY MORNING, FLATTENING AS IT MIGRATES EAST OF OUR REGION BY
MONDAY EVENING IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ABOVE
MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN RETREATING BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT DURING THE DAY MONDAY WHICH COULD ASSIST IN TRIGGERING
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES BUT ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE A FAR CRY FROM WHAT IS COMING LATER IN THE WEEK.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT QUICKLY PIVOTS TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BY MONDAY
NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY AS A VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THIS INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW SHOULD BEGIN IMPACTING AT LEAST OUR
NORTHWEST HALF AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY BUT UPPER LEVEL ASCENT SHOULD
BECOME MORE MAXIMIZED ACROSS OUR REGION BY WED NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY EVENING ASSUMING THE TROUGH DOES NOT
SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WHILE WE ARE
STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT FROM THIS EVENT, THIS TROUGH APPEARS TO
HAVE PLENTIFUL DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
ACCOMPANYING IT BUT THE INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION ATTM.
THUS AT FIRST GLANCE, THIS APPEARS TO BE YOUR CLASSIC HIGH
SHEAR/LOW INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT WE TYPICALLY SEE THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH THESE TROUGHS BUT ANY UPTICK IN INSTABILITY BETWEEN
BOUTS OF EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE PRE-TROUGH ACTIVITY ON
WEDNESDAY AND THE TROUGH ITSELF THURSDAY COULD RESULT IN A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS OUR REGION. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE INGREDIENTS CLOSELY AS IS ALWAYS THE
CASE THIS TIME OF YEAR, TIMING OF THESE INGREDIENTS COMING
TOGETHER WILL MEAN EVERYTHING. OF MORE CERTAINTY WILL BE THE
WINDOW OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCHES LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH OF OUR REGION WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 5-7 INCHES
ACROSS THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY OF NE TX, SE OK AND SW AR
CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY IN THE WED THRU THU
NIGHT TIMEFRAME.
13
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
SKIES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY CLEAR AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD,
WITH THE HEAVIEST CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTH AND WESTERN SITES.
THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOME
SKC THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL STAY SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5-10 KTS BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST AND COMING DOWN SLIGHTLY IN SPEED LATER TOMORROW
MORNING. WINDS MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG AT BAY OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, BUT SOME IFR/MVFR CIGS COULD STILL BRIEFLY DEVELOP AROUND
SUNRISE WITH THE RECENT INFLUX OF MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH. ANY
CEILING IMPACTS SHOULD LIFT WITHIN A FEW HOURS. /57/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 950 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 84 63 83 65 / 0 0 0 10
MLU 83 59 81 60 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 81 56 77 54 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 83 62 80 61 / 0 0 0 10
ELD 82 58 78 55 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 83 64 83 65 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 83 62 83 63 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 83 60 85 63 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...57
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