626
FXUS64 KSHV 310523
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1223 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
- WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY, BEFORE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER, COOLER CONDITIONS, AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS RETURN THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
- MORE FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION SUNDAY
BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, BEFORE TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
THE EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK SFC RIDGING IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS E INTO SW AR/WRN LA, WITH THE 05Z SFC OBS
ALREADY REVEALING MOSTLY CALM WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS THAT THE FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME
ZONAL AND REMAINS QUITE DRY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE COLDEST
MORNING SO FAR THIS FALL AS READINGS SETTLE INTO THE MID/UPPER
30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. MOST LOCALES SHOULD REMAIN A BIT
TOO WARM FOR FROST, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MORE PROTECTED/LOW
LYING AREAS OF NRN MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK AND THE NRN SECTIONS OF SW
AR. HOWEVER, TEMPS WILL WARM QUICKLY WITH INCREASED INSOLATION
TODAY, AS YET ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER OF
THE SFC RIDGING SETTLES OVER THE AREA. MAX TEMPS TODAY SHOULD
RUN A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED THURSDAY, BUT
STILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW THE DAILY NORMS.
ALSO WATCHING THE CLOSED LOW ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DIGGING S
THROUGH ND THIS MORNING, AS IT SHIFTS SSE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST,
THUS CARVING A LONGWAVE TROUGH SSE THROUGH THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN
PLAINS TODAY AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS LATER TONIGHT. AS THIS TROUGH
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY, SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN ELEVATED CIGS FROM
THE NW AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING OVER NE TX/SE OK/SW AR, WHICH WILL
QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT, WITH
THE CLOSED LOW AND ATTENDANT POSITIVE TILT TROUGH AXIS PROGGED TO
QUICKLY SHIFT SE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY,
BEFORE EXITING THE AREA TO THE SE SATURDAY NIGHT. SINCE THE PROGS
CONTINUE TO TREND A BIT FASTER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH,
ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING SFC
RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEAK, BRIEF, AND NEGLISHABLE, WITH ANY MOISTURE
REMAINING S OF THE AREA JUST INLAND OF THE SE TX/S LA COASTS.
STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING ALOFT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS WILL YIELD INCREASING/THICKENING MID LEVEL CIGS BY AND
SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF N AND NE TX/SE
OK/SW AR, BEFORE QUICKLY SPREADING E ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. THE NBM HAS AGAIN FLIP-FLOPPED FROM ITS
EARLIER RUN WITH LITTLE TO NO POPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE
TROUGH PASSAGE, YET THE PROGS SUGGEST THAT SOME ISOLATED -RA MAY
STILL DEVELOP AS THE COLUMN GRADUALLY TRIES TO SATURATE FROM THE
TOP DOWN. THUS, HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA, ALTHOUGH ANY QPF WILL REMAIN QUITE LIGHT, ONLY UP TO
SEVERAL HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH. ANY ISOLATED -RA WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH FROM W TO E DURING THE AFTERNOON, AS DRIER AIR ALOFT
QUICKLY SPILLS SE IN WAKE OF THE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO
REINFORCE A COLD FRONT QUICKLY SE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING,
USHERING IN THE RETURN OF MORE FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES TO ROUND OUT
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
THESE COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH, AS RIDGING
ALOFT OVER THE DESERT SW BEGINS TO SHIFT E INTO THE SRN PLAINS TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK, EXPANDING E INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY,
THE RETURN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AS EARLY AS TUESDAY,
WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AS READING NEAR OR EXCEED 80 DEGREES. SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE
RIDGE AND THE LACK OF ANY TRUE SRLY LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED,
ALTHOUGH THIS WILL CHANGE BY FRIDAY AS THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
UPPER TROUGH YIELDS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO
START NEXT WEEKEND.
15
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL PROVIDE NEAR CALM TO
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS UNDER 5 KNOTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
01/06Z. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE WITH HIGH CIRRUS
OVERSPREADING MOST SITES EXCEPT FOR LFK AFTER 10/00Z. /05/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 71 47 67 45 / 0 0 20 0
MLU 69 44 65 44 / 0 0 20 10
DEQ 69 46 65 36 / 0 10 20 0
TXK 70 48 67 40 / 0 10 20 0
ELD 67 43 64 39 / 0 0 20 0
TYR 71 48 68 43 / 0 10 20 0
GGG 70 46 67 41 / 0 0 20 0
LFK 73 46 70 44 / 0 0 20 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ARZ050.
LA...NONE.
OK...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ077.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...05
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page