614
FXUS64 KSHV 122230
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
430 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 120 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK, RETURNING NEXT WEEK.
- THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP BY VALENTINE'S DAY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DELIVER ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT ON SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 120 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
RIDGING CONTINUES APACE FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION, MAINTAINING
ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THIS
WILL GRADUALLY PRIME THE ATMOSPHERE WITH SOME INGREDIENTS FOR THE
COMING TROUGH THAT WILL WRAP AROUND TO DIG ACROSS THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA COASTLINE AND EJECT INTO WEST TEXAS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. AS IT DOES SO, SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RETURN FROM
THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. NEAR-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS
CONTINUING ITS AGREEMENT ON TROUGH EVOLUTIONS THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY, TRENDING TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL EJECTION PROFILE
ACROSS EAST TEXAS. WHILE THE SETUP FOR A MORE BONAFIDE SEVERE
WEATHER ENVIRONMENT REMAINS OUT OF REACH, INGREDIENTS THAT ARE
PRESENT DO FAVOR A HIGH-SHEAR, LOW-CAPE EVENT AFTER MIDDAY
SATURDAY. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW -8C/KM,
WHILE SFC-1KM SHEAR AROUND 30-40KTS (THE MOST CONDUCIVE/FAVORABLY
HIGH AMOUNT FOR THIS ROUND OF STORMS). SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS
THAT ARE EXPECTED INCLUDE: DAMAGING WINDS (MOST LIKELY), LARGE
HAIL (QUARTER-SIZE), AND TORNADOES (CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH HIGH
SHEAR). POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS GOING INTO NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS MAINTAINING ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. SOME LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPERATURE
MAXIMUMS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 80S BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
/16/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 425 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAILING ACROSS ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS
ATTM AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS.
GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE AS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND SPREADING NORTHWARD, POSSIBLY IMPACTING
THE LFK TERMINAL AND MAYBE EVEN THE I-20 TERMINALS ACROSS AT LEAST
NE TX. FOR NOW, THE LFK TERMINAL DROPPING TO 1 MILE AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH CEILINGS NEAR 3HDFT WITH THE TYR/GGG TERMINALS VSBYS FALLING
TO 3 MILES WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND WILL ADJUST IF NECESSARY FOR THE
06Z TAF PACKAGE. ANY VSBY AND/OR CEILINGS RESTRICTIONS SHOULD GIVE
WAY BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TO OUR
AIRSPACE. THERE SHOULD BE A LOW CU FIELD HOWEVER DURING THE DAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AIRSPACE WITH INCREASING MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL. LOOK FOR MOSTLY
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ON FRIDAY WITH
SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 53 79 60 73 / 0 10 10 80
MLU 50 77 58 76 / 0 0 10 50
DEQ 43 72 54 66 / 0 20 50 100
TXK 49 76 60 71 / 0 20 30 90
ELD 45 75 56 72 / 0 10 20 70
TYR 55 80 61 71 / 0 20 20 100
GGG 51 79 59 71 / 0 20 20 90
LFK 55 79 59 73 / 0 10 10 90
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...13
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