296
FXUS64 KSHV 111844
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
144 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
- AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF ACTIVE WEATHER, A PATTERN SHIFT WILL
ALLOW FOR DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
WEEK.
- UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BECOME MORE INFLUENTIAL BY MID-WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
- THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN DOESN'T RETURN UNTIL THIS WEEKEND AS
THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND IS REPLACED ANOTHER ACTIVE SW FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EJECTION REMAINS ONGOING ACROSS OUR REGION THIS
AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER PARTS OF NORTH LA AND DEEP EAST TX. THIS ACTIVITY HAS SEEN A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH THE AID OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND STILL CANNOT RULE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BY EARLY THIS EVENING,
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL BE COMING TO AN END OVER OUR EXTREME
SE ZONES WITH CONTINUED CLEARING OF CLOUD COVER FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE COURSE OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE 50S
TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.
TUESDAY WILL BRING SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AS WE BOUNCE BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S, KICKING OFF A WARMING TREND THAT WILL
CARRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. IN FACT, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE CENTRAL CONUS BY MID TO
LATE WEEK AS OUR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SURGE TOWARD 90 DEGREES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. ASIDE FROM SOME AFTERNOON FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS, EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EVEN AS A MID-WEEK COLD
FRONT ATTEMPTS TO BACK DOOR INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY BUT IS
LARGELY REBUFFED BY THE EXPANDING RIDGE. THUS, EXPECT THE VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS EVENTUALLY
RETURNING AREAWIDE BY THURSDAY.
THIS WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL CARRY INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL
WITH PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW, BUT THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
SHIFT TO OUR EAST AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. IT WILL BE REPLACED
BY INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT WITH A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER
RETURNING ONCE AGAIN, POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WORK WEEK. FOR NOW, ONLY LOW-END RAIN CHANCES ARE INCLUDED IN
THE WEEKEND FORECAST OWING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXTENT
OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL FORCING FOR CONVECTION AND THE LACK OF ANY
SUPPORTING SFC FEATURES. THAT BEING SAID, THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY PERSISTENT WITH UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
/19/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
FOR THE 11/18Z TAF UPDATE...MIXTURE OF MVFR AND VFR CIGS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WE ARE TRACKING SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA
BUT I AM NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IMPACT TO ANY TERMINALS AT THIS
TIME, ALTHOUGH I KEPT MENTION OF VCSH FOR KSHV, KMLU, KLFK, AND
KELD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
LATER THIS EVENING AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THIS TAF PERIOD
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KLFK WHERE SOME MVFR CIGS COULD RETURN
TONIGHT. /33/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 59 84 60 89 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 58 84 59 89 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 50 82 54 87 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 54 84 58 89 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 52 83 55 87 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 58 82 60 87 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 58 83 60 88 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 61 84 62 89 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...33
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