187
FXUS64 KSHV 020559 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1159 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 952 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
- SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN OUR FAR NORTH AND EAST ZONES EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING WITH THE REST OF THE REGION STAYING DRY FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT WEEK.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WARMING
TREND GRADUALLY INCREASES TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COULD BE FROM A SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 952 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT BACK SOME
WARMTH AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THE
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST NORTH AND
EAST OF THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLY CLIPPING OUR OUTER AREAS ON THE WAY THROUGH. THE REST OF
THE ARK-LA-TX SHOULD STAY DRY WHILE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS DISTURBANCE ON SATURDAY MORNING LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE FREE
FROM RAIN BUT BRING A NW WIND SHIFT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND
IT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL STILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN
AVERAGE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE MOST PART OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS AND
GRADUALLY WARM AGAIN AS SURFACE WINDS SHIFT BACK TO A SOUTHERLY
ORIENTATION BY SUNDAY EVENING.
ANOTHER DRY SERIES OF DAYS WITH GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES
WILL STRETCH INTO MID NEXT WEEK UNTIL IT IS BROKEN BY A DEEPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. CURRENT LONG-RANGE MODELS ARE TAKING THIS UPPER-
LEVEL LOW FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. SHOULD THIS SCENARIO PLAY OUT, THE
ARK-LA-TX COULD SEE SOME WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS SOON AS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. UNTIL
THEN, STAY AWARE OF LOCAL GUIDANCE SURROUNDING OUTDOOR BURNING AND
FIREWORKS AS FIRE DANGER COULD INCREASE IN THE MEANTIME.
57
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS NOW DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS
OF SE TX ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NE INTO PORTIONS OF DEEP E
TX/NCNTRL LA BETWEEN 09-12Z. THESE CIGS MAY AFFECT LFK AFTER 09Z,
WITH GREATER LIKELIHOOD AFFECTING THE N LA/ELD TERMINALS AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK, PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST MID TO LATE
MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING/SCATTERING OUT. VFR CIGS SHOULD
RETURN TO MLU/ELD BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON, AND WHILE THEY MAY
SCATTER OUT AT MLU BY MID-AFTERNOON, CIGS SHOULD LINGER AT ELD
UNTIL 00Z SATURDAY. A SFC LOW TRAVERSING THE MIDDLE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF N TX/SRN OK FRIDAY WILL BECOME ABSORBED INTO A
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, WHICH WILL
BEGIN TO DRIFT BACK SSW INTO SRN AR/EXTREME NE TX SHORTLY AFTER
00Z, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR LOW MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP JUST N OF THE
FRONT AND DRIFT S WITH THE FROPA BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. S
WINDS 5-10KTS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SW 8-13KTS AFTER 16Z, WITH
GUSTS TO 25KTS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF LOWER E TX/N LA. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 57 78 52 65 / 10 0 0 0
MLU 52 76 52 62 / 10 10 10 0
DEQ 47 68 44 63 / 20 0 10 0
TXK 54 73 49 64 / 20 0 10 0
ELD 51 72 46 59 / 10 10 10 0
TYR 56 77 49 67 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 55 78 49 67 / 10 0 0 0
LFK 55 80 51 70 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...15
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