608
FXUS64 KSHV 212320
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
620 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
- AREAS OF RAIN WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
- ADDITIONAL CONVECTION REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS EAST TEXAS, BEFORE EXPANDING EAST INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
- WHILE PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN TO THE REGION AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
THE EARLY AFTERNOON MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES AN EXPANSIVE
AREA OF RA THAT HAS GRADUALLY SPREAD E ACROSS MUCH OF E TX AND
INTO EXTREME SE OK AND WRN LA. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE SFC
RIDGE HAVING SHIFTED E INTO THE SE STATES TODAY, RESULTING IN A
LIGHT SSERLY FLOW RETURN TO THE REGION, THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS
REMAINS QUITE DRY, AND HAVING TO SATURATE FROM THE TOP DOWN AS THE
RA AREAS ADVANCE E. THIS RA AREA REMAINS DRIVEN BY A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DEPICTED WELL IN THE AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY OF SRN OK/N TX, WHICH REMAINS PROGGED TO
DRIFT E ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS FARTHER E ACROSS
SRN AR/MUCH OF N LA REMAINS QUITE DRY THOUGH, WITH THE LATEST
MESOANALYSIS DEPICTING PW'S OF 0.5-1.0 INCHES OVER THIS AREA.
THUS, THE RA AREA SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH SOME WITH TIME THIS
AFTERNOON EVENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE DEEPER DRIER AIR, BUT HAVE
EXPANDED LOW POPS BACK E INTO SRN AR/NCNTRL LA AS SOME -RA MAY
STILL FALL FROM THESE LOWERING AC CIGS SPREADING E.
THE VARIOUS SHORT TERM PROGS, INCLUDING THE HI-RES MODELS, SUGGEST
THAT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR LATE
TONIGHT (AROUND OR AFTER 09Z) ACROSS E TX, ESPECIALLY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES AND DEEPENS IN VC OF THE TRAILING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH, AND THUS HAVE BUMPED POPS BACK UP TO MID CHANCE
TO REFLECT THAT POTENTIAL. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT E
INTO PORTIONS OF SW AR/WRN LA BY/AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY, BUT
GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME AS AGAIN, IT ENCOUNTERS THE DRIER AIR
TO THE E. THE PROGS ALSO HINT AT ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT MAY
DROP SE ACROSS ECNTRL AND SE TX WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY
HELP INITIATE SCATTERED CONVECTION REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS AREA
INTO WRN LA. THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS WERE CONCENTRATED,
GENERALLY IN THE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY CATEGORY. DID MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THE EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP E
TX/WCNTRL LA TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING CONVECTION AS SUGGESTED
BY THE VARIOUS HI-RES PROGS, BUT OTHERWISE, MOSTLY DRY AND QUIET
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW CIGS FROM THE S
LATE. ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION THURSDAY SHOULD BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
AND CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX/N LA/SRN AR, BEFORE
DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET.
THE MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DIVERGE FRIDAY BUT REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH THEIR EARLIER RESPECTIVE RUNS, AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE
EJECTS ENE BENEATH AND AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW/TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS S INTO KS/MO FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTION SHOULD HELP INITIATE
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG THE ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT ACROSS ERN KS/NRN OK, WITH THE CONVECTION LIKELY REINFORCING
THE FRONT SE INTO SE OK/WRN AR BY AFTERNOON (PER THE 12Z EURO
ENSEMBLES). THE GEFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SLOWER FRONTAL
MOVEMENT THAN ITS EURO COUNTERPARTS, MAINLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THE DEEPER CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE FARTHER E
ALONG THE BNDRY FROM THE OZARKS INTO THE MIDWEST, THUS HANGING THE
FRONT UP OVER NRN OK INTO NRN AR. IN ANY CASE, PORTIONS OF SE
OK/SW AR MAY STILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE BY WEAK FORCING
ALONG THE BASE OF THE BROAD TROUGH, WHICH MAY ENHANCE SCATTERED
CONVECTION REDEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING, WHICH MAY
MIGRATE INTO PORTIONS OF N LA/ADJACENT E TX. HOWEVER, THE SEVERE
THREAT STILL APPEARS CONDITIONAL ATTM GIVEN THE UNKNOWNS AS TO
WHETHER OR NOT THE FRONT OR ASSOCIATED MESOSCALE BNDRYS FROM THE
THURSDAY NIGHT CONVECTION WILL PLAY A ROLE IN CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT, AS WELL AS THE LACK OF HEIGHT FALLS OR BETTER
DEFINED FORCING MECHANISMS ALOFT. THE GFS IS ALSO SUFFERING FROM
APPARENT FEEDBACK ISSUES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DEEPER CONVECTION
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE EXISTING SPC SVR RISK AREA, WITH THE
FORECAST FURTHER REFINED AS THE PROBABLE EVENT NEARS.
NEEDLESS TO SAY, GIVEN THE LACK OF AGREEMENT AMONGST THE VARIOUS
MEDIUM RANGE PROGS FOR LATE WEEK, LOW CONFIDENCE PERSISTS REGARDS
THE CONVECTION EVOLUTION AND SEVERE THREAT THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUT IN ALL LIKELIHOOD, CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH
ENOUGH THOUGH THAT PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
15
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
FOR THE 22/00Z TAF UPDATE...RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA, SO I HAVE
MAINTAINED VCSH AND -RA FOR KSHV, KTXK, KTYR, AND KLFK FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WHILE VFR CIGS CURRENTLY PREVAIL, WE WILL
SEE THEM DROP TO MVFR TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BEFORE
IMPROVING AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, AND HAVE
MAINTAINED MENTION OF THIS FOR ALL TERMINALS AROUND OR AFTER
22/09Z. /33/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 58 78 63 83 / 40 50 10 10
MLU 59 81 61 85 / 20 20 0 20
DEQ 53 74 59 81 / 30 30 10 20
TXK 56 77 63 85 / 30 40 10 10
ELD 55 78 58 83 / 20 30 10 20
TYR 58 78 65 83 / 40 40 10 10
GGG 56 77 64 83 / 40 50 10 10
LFK 58 79 63 84 / 40 60 20 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...33
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