815
FXUS64 KSHV 230624
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
124 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
...NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, HYDROLOGY, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
- A STATIONARY FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT, EARLY TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY
LINGERING WITH DAYTIME HEATING OVER THE SAME AREAS.
- THE FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND FOR
TUESDAY FOR MUCH OF THE ARKLATEX NORTH OF I-20 UNTIL 3 PM.
- TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S BY LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND POSSIBLY PROMPTING HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS HAVE PINNED A NOW
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE RED RIVER OF OKLAHOMA AND
TEXAS, AND THEN EXTENDING EASTWARD RIGHT ALONG THE ARKANSAS AND
LOUISIANA STATE LINE. WE HAVE SEEN A CONTINUED TRAIN OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME HEAVY BRIEFLY WITH CONFIRMED 1 TO 2 INCH
AMOUNTS OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THIS EVENING AND MORE TO COME
OVERNIGHT. SO KEEP A NOAA WX RADIO ON DUTY OVERNIGHT FOR ANY
WARNINGS. THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR
A FEW NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES INCLUDING MCCURTAIN, SEVIER AND
HOWARD. IN ADDITION, AS THE FRONT WILL BE LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD
ON TUESDAY, AND WE HAVE CLEARED THE SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES AND
PARISHES FROM THE WATCH.
THIS NEW FLOOD WATCH AREA HAS ALSO BEEN EXTENDED IN TIME UNTIL
TUESDAY MID AFTERNOON. WE CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
FOR THE WATCH AREA WITH MORE HEAVY DOWNPOURS EXPECTED, DUE TO
SLOW AND PERSISTENT LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT. OUR EVENING BALLOON
SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH WATER CONTENT WITH OUR PWAT OVER
2 INCHES. THE WPC CONTINUES THEIR SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT, THEN DIPPING DOWN INTO NE TX FOR TUESDAY
BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING OUT THE MARGINAL RISK OUT OF OUR AREA LATE
WEEK. ALSO OF NOTE, OUR SURFACE CAPE REMAIN IN THE 3-4K J/KG
RANGE WITH OUR DCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG WITH A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT
FROM DAMAGING WINDS. THE SPC CONCURS WITH A MARGINAL RISK
OVERNIGHT NORTH OF I-20 IN NE TX INTO SE OK AND S AR AND ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-20 IN LA. THE DAY 2 INDICATES THIS RISK WILL BE
SHIFTING NORTHWARD BY AROUND DAYBREAK.
HEATING WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE REMAINING
COOL POOL AREA AND LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. OTHERWISE, IT
WILL COOLEST, BUT STILL QUITE WARM UNDER THE RAIN CLOUDS ACROSS
OUR NORTH, WHILE AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 WILL BE BORDERING ON HOT
AGAIN WITH LOWER 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES RIGHT AROUND THE 105
DEGREES THRESHOLD. ONE THING IS FOR SURE, WHEN THIS FRONT LIFTS
BACK NORTHWARD IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER NEW
MEXICO SOARS TO 597DAM BY LATE TOMORROW, WE WILL BE SEEING THOSE
HOTTER TEMPS AREAWIDE WITH LIKELY HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES GOING
FORWARD INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODEL FORECAST
TEMPERATURES WILL SEE WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 90S AND UNTIL WE DRY
OUT AGAIN, A EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE MOST
HUMID AREAS. /24/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG A
WEAK SFC BNDRY LEFTOVER FROM MONDAY MORNING'S CONVECTION, WHICH
EXTENDS ALONG THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX TO ALONG THE AR/LA BORDER
TO NEAR RSN/MLU AS OF 06Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR AT LEAST
A FEW MORE HOURS TO THE N AND S SIDE OF THE BNDRY AWAY FROM THE
CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS, REDUCED VSBYS, AND LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THE CONVECTION AT TXK/ELD
AND MLU OVERNIGHT. LOW MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER S
OF THE BNDRY AFTER 08-09Z AND SPREAD N ACROSS E TX/N LA, AFFECTING
THE E TX AND SHV TERMINALS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK, AND LINGERING THROUGH
MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING. THE CONVECTION ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING AS
WELL, BUT MAY DIMINISH FROM E TO W BY MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON,
ENDING AT TXK BY EARLY AFTERNOON, WHILE REMAINING N OF TYR/GGG. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE SW AR/MLU TERMINALS,
AND REMAIN SO AREAWIDE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP THOUGH BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING THOUGH ALONG THE RESIDUAL BNDRY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NE TX/EXTREME SW AR/N LA, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES
VCTS MENTION FOR THE AFFECTED TERMINALS ATTM. LIGHT S OR LT/VRB
WINDS OVERNIGHT (EXCEPT IN/NEAR THE CONVECTION) WILL BECOME SSW 5-
10KTS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. /15/
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
SOILS REMAIN SATURATED IN MANY OF OUR COUNTIES AND PARISHES ALLOWING
FOR QUICK RUNOFF FROM THESE SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS. A
WEAK COOL FRONT HAS BECOME STATIONARY ALONG THE RED RIVER OF OKLAHOMA
AND TEXAS, AND EXTENDING EASTWARD ALONG THE ARKANSAS AND
LOUISIANA STATE LINE. THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ALTERED TO INCLUDE LESS AREA SOUTH OF I-20, BUT A FEW MORE
COUNTIES NORTH OF I-30 AND UNTIL THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS OF
TUESDAY. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR FLOOD WARNINGS IN AND NEAR
THE FLOOD WATCH. CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AND SOME
ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING MAY UNFOLD. PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO
LOCAL OFFICIALS AND LAW ENFORCEMENT. /24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT AND WELL INTO
TUESDAY, DUE TO A FLASH FLOOD RISK ALONG A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR FOUR-STATE AREA. /24/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 92 77 92 76 / 20 20 10 10
MLU 90 75 91 75 / 20 20 30 10
DEQ 85 71 88 72 / 40 40 40 10
TXK 89 74 91 75 / 50 40 30 10
ELD 86 72 88 72 / 40 50 50 10
TYR 93 77 94 74 / 10 20 0 0
GGG 93 76 93 74 / 10 20 10 0
LFK 95 76 95 73 / 10 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-019-
021.
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ077.
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-138.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...26
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