884
FXUS64 KSHV 110414
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1114 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT
THE ARKLATEX, FIRST ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30 OVERNIGHT TONIGHT,
WITH LARGE HAIL, TORNADOES AND WIND GUSTS ALL POSSIBLE.
- FURTHER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW, BRINGING TORNADOES, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-30.
- QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CLOSE OUT THIS WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A
WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT BRINGING A
SHARP COOL DOWN TO START NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
THE CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH AS IT
PUSHES INLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING, ADVANCING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS
AND POTENTIALLY REFORMING A NEW CUTOFF LOW DURING THE DAY TOMORROW,
FINALLY PASSING OVER LOUISIANA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL,
AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED, BE THE CATALYST FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX OVER THE NEXT 36-48
HOURS.
THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE CLUSTERS
OF SHOWERS ACROSS EAST TEXAS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THIS EVENING,
WITH SOME AREAS OF STRONGER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. THE
FIRST MAIN EVENT, MEANWHILE, WILL BE TAKING SHAPE AS A POTENT SQUALL
LINE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WHICH WILL PUSH EAST THIS EVENING, BRINGING
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR. IT BEARS MENTIONING THAT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
INCONSISTENT REGARDING HOW LONG THIS LINE WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS IT
PUSHES EAST, WITH THE NAM 3KM LARGELY COLLAPSING BY THE TIME IT
REACHES US, AND THE HRRR HINTING AT A CHANCE OF MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION HOLDING TOGETHER INTO OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE MAIN EVENT WILL BE STIRRED UP AS THE CLOSED
LOW ITSELF PUSHES INTO THE ARKLATEX DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
TOMORROW, WITH DISTINCT LINES OF STORMS ALIGNED WITH THE SURFACE
WARM AND COLD FRONT BOUNDARIES. IMPACTS LOOK TO BEGINS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BY MIDDAY, CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS, WITH RAINFALL CONCLUDING BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THE BIG
QUESTION MARK SURROUNDING SEVERE ACTIVITY WITH THIS SECOND WAVE
HINGES ON THE POSITION OF THE CLOSED LOW, AND PARTICULARLY ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM SECTOR. IF THE LOW TAKES A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK,
MORE OF THE ARKLATEX WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND THUS AT RISK. BY
CONTRAST, A SOUTHERLY TRACK COULD SEE THE ARKLATEX MOSTLY IF NOT
ENTIRELY CUT OFF FROM THE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
AT THIS TIME, ZONES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR WOULD DO
WELL TO BE PREPARED FOR ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER, INCLUDING
TORNADOES, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND LARGE HAIL.
UNDER CLEARING SKIES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, HIGHS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL ONLY REACH THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 60S, FOLLOWED BY MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO
LOWER 40S SOUTH FRIDAY MORNING. THE WEEKEND WILL SEE FURTHER WARMING
UNDER PSEUDO-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT REINFORCED BY SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW,
AS 70S AND LOWER 80S MAKE THEIR RETURN BEFORE A DEEP TROUGH AND
POTENT COLD FRONT BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY, AS WELL AS A MARKED COOLDOWN FEATURING
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 30S AND EVEN A FEW NORTHERLY SITES POSSIBLY
GETTING DOWN TO FREEZING EARLY NEXT WEEK TO CLOSE OUT THIS EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD.
/26/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
VERY BUSY AVIATION TAF PERIOD AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT
INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISS VALLEY BRINGING WITH IT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME OF THESE
STORMS LIKELY SEVERE. CURRENTLY WATCHING A BROKEN LINE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS N TX/S OK THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO OUR NORTHWEST
AIRSPACE OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS OR SO. HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS AT
THE TYR/TYR/GGG/SHV AND ELD AIRPORTS THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
AS WE TRANSITION INTO THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS, A NEW
LINE OF CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR
OF NE TX AND RAPIDLY EXPAND EAST AND NORTHEAST, ENCOMPASSING THE
EASTERN HALF AND SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AIRSPACE THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE ALL CONVECTION MOVES EAST OF OUR AIRSPACE.
HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS FOR ALL TERMINALS. PREFRONTAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS VERY STRONG THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTION OF COURSE AND POST FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS VERY
STRONG AS WELL WITH WINDS QUICKLY SHIFTING AROUND TO THE NORTH
WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS NEAR 15KTS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30KTS
THIS EVENING ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AIRSPACE.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. /20/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 68 77 45 64 / 60 90 50 0
MLU 68 82 45 62 / 20 90 80 0
DEQ 60 76 35 64 / 90 80 10 0
TXK 67 77 41 65 / 90 90 30 0
ELD 64 74 40 62 / 50 90 50 0
TYR 67 77 43 66 / 90 80 30 0
GGG 66 76 42 65 / 80 90 50 0
LFK 68 77 45 66 / 50 90 60 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...13
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