223
FXUS64 KSHV 202355
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
655 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
- THE COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS OUR FOUR-STATE AREA FROM DEEP
EAST TX INTO NORTHEAST LA GIVING US BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS.
- THIS BRIEF QUIET IN OUR WET PATTERN UNFOLDED IN THE WAKE OF THE
BOUNDARY'S S PROGRESS, BUT WILL LIFT BACK N IN THE SHORT TERM.
- AS SOILS BECOME SATURATED FROM REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL, THE
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING MAY BECOME A CONCERN POTENTIALLY DURING
THE THE UPCOMING MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
CLOUDS ARE THINNING ALOFT, BUT HAVE KEPT THE LOW DECKS IN PLACE
FOR MUCH LONGER TODAY THAN EXPECTED. CURRENT TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE
70S WITH 82 THE WARM SPOT IN TEXARKANA AND 75 DEGREES AT
SHREVEPORT AND EL DORADO. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND STILL NORTHERLY WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND WILL MAKE FOR A
COMFORTABLE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR IS SHOWING A LITTLE
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING OVER OUR DELTA REGION WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE WARRANTED THERE THIS EVENING, AND THEN BACK ACROSS EASTERN
TX FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND PREDAWN HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY STARTS TO
LIFT BACK NORTHWARD. THE BASE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH (ANCHORED
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST) WILL SWING OVER THE
RED RIVER VALLEY OF OK/TX. SO THIS WILL SPREAD CONVECTION BACK
ACROSS OUR FOUR-STATE AREA MAINLY WITH HEATING ON THURSDAY.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE AS PLANNED THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ALL THIS UNFOLDS AS THE NEXT CLOSED LOW IN
THE DEEP TROUGH OUT WEST SWINGS INTO OFF THE PACIFIC AND INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE EXTENSIVE AGAIN
FOR LATE THURSDAY AND THEN SLIGHTLY LESS CONTINUING FOR FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, NOT AS DRY FRIDAY AS WAS THE CASE TODAY MINUS AN AIR MASS
OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
RELOADING FOR ANOTHER BIG PUSH ON SATURDAY. ALL THIS MOISTURE
ARRIVING ON SW FLOW WILL BE PILING INTO A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE IN
THE SE U.S. AND JUST OFFSHORE OVER BERMUDA. SO SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WILL CONTINUE WITH ABOVE COVERAGE WITH A NEW UPPER LOW POSITIONING
OFFSHORE OF CA AND WEST COAST FOR ANOTHER SWING IN FOR US WITH
ACTIVE SW FLOW DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AS A RESULT THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP UP SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE ON HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE LOWS KEEP IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. STILL NO OUTLOOKS FOR SEVERE FROM THE SPC, BUT IT IS
LIKELY A BUBBLE OF MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK COULD CROP UP THURSDAY
AND AGAIN PERHAPS FOR SATURDAY. KEEP IN MIND WHEN OUTDOORS, KEEP
ABREAST OF THE WEATHER SITUATION AND OF COURSE TAKE SHELTER INSIDE
WHEN AND "THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS. LIKEWISE, THE WPC EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOKS COVER PORTIONS OF OUR FOUR-STATE AREA WHILE
FALLING IN LINE FOR DAY 2 AND 4 AS WE RAMP UP CONVECTION AGAIN ON
THURSDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THAT AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT.
/24/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING WITH MVFR CEILINGS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION AFTER 21/06Z. CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO LOW
VFR AFTER 21/18Z ACROSS SOME SITES. HOWEVER, CONVECTION IS FORECAST
TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY, BRINGING TSRA
CONDITIONS TO THE I-20 TERMINALS AFTER 21/19Z AND TXK/ELD TOWARD
THE END OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE, LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS ON THURSDAY. /05/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 157 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /20/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 69 82 68 83 / 10 70 80 60
MLU 68 85 68 83 / 20 50 90 90
DEQ 64 77 63 81 / 10 50 90 40
TXK 67 80 66 83 / 10 50 90 40
ELD 65 82 64 82 / 10 40 90 70
TYR 68 78 67 83 / 30 90 70 40
GGG 69 80 67 83 / 20 80 80 50
LFK 69 81 68 84 / 20 80 70 60
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...05
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