667
FXUS64 KSHV 310446
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1146 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
- AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTH
LOUISIANA, SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS, AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS
FOR THURSDAY.
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF
EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.
- THE COLD FRONT REMAINS IN OUR FORECAST WITH DRIER AIR FROM THE
NE DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT ON FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
700MB RIDGE TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY
MAINTAINING SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
APPROACH THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. WITH DEWPOINT VALUES
IN THE MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY TO MID-
AFTERNOON, HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD INCREASE TO NEAR 110 TO 115
DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA
INCLUDING NEIGHBORING COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST TEXAS. FOR THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE, WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED ALL OF SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS TO AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING WITH ONGOING HEAT HEADLINES
REMAINING UNCHANGED. CONCERNING HOW FAR WEST TO GO WITH THE
EXTREME HEAT WARNING, THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER STORMS
DEVELOPING BENEATH A WESTWARD BUILDING UPPER-TROUGH WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO GENERATE THE CLOUDCOVER AND COOLER OUTFLOW
WINDS NECESSARY TO DIMINISH THE WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE HEAT THREAT
BY MID-AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE HRRR, CONVECTION WILL TO DEVELOP
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE I-30 CORRIDOR INTO NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND SHIFT SOUTH WITH EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA POSSIBLY
SEEING A LATER START IN THE CONVECTION ALLOWING HEAT INDEX VALUES
TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL HOURS. THUS, DUE TO THE
EARLIER START IN CONVECTION AND CLOUD-COVER, WENT AHEAD AND LEFT
MCCURTAIN COUNTY AND MOST OF EAST TEXAS OUT OF THE EXTREME HEAT
WARNING.
A DRASTIC SHIFT IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY
ONWARD AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. FRONT SHOULD
STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT TO BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN PREVAILING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND COULD RESULT IN PERIODS
OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY. COULD SEE A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS BEGINS TO REBUILD EAST. WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING,
HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S BY TUESDAY. /05/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 31/00Z TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER, ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TO MID-
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW AR/N LA/EXTREME ERN TX BEFORE
DIMINISHING, WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CIGS, LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS, AND REDUCED VSBYS. HOWEVER, LOW CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES
MENTION IN THE TERMINALS ATTM, AND WILL AMEND AS NEEDED.
ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
WHILE GRADUALLY THINNING, WITH ANOTHER SCATTERED CU FIELD
DEVELOPING AGAIN BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY AREAWIDE. SCATTERED
CONVECTION SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP BY EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS
SE OK/SW AR/N LA AND EXTREME ERN TX, AND HAVE INSERTED VCTS
MENTION FOR ALL BUT THE E TX TERMINALS GIVEN THE LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN CONVECTION AFFECTED THESE AREAS. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD AGAIN
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF MVFR CIGS, LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS, AND
REDUCED VSBYS, AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID-EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING. LT/VRB WINDS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY VRB
AROUND 5KTS AFTER 16Z. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 77 101 79 95 / 10 40 20 40
MLU 78 101 77 96 / 20 30 20 50
DEQ 75 99 73 90 / 10 40 20 40
TXK 77 102 76 95 / 10 30 20 40
ELD 75 99 74 91 / 20 30 30 50
TYR 77 102 76 98 / 0 10 10 30
GGG 77 101 76 96 / 10 20 20 40
LFK 77 100 76 98 / 10 30 10 40
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7PM CDT THURSDAY FOR
ARZ050-051-059>061-70>073
LA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LAZ001>006-
011>014-018>022 AND HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR
LAZ010-017.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ077.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ096-108>111-124>126-
136>138-149>153-165>167. EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7PM CDT
THURSDAY FOR TXZ097-112
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...15
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