341
FXUS64 KSHV 072000
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
300 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH HIGHS PEAKING ON THURSDAY WITH LOW
TO MID 90S. LOWS WILL BUMP UP, BACK TO MID A FEW UPPER 60S.
- WINDS WILL BE E/NE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THEN VARY LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AS THE TROPICS IMPACT THE DEEP SOUTH. SHOWERS
WILL GRAZE BY US ON SATURDAY, MAINLY E OF I-49 BASED ON NHC TRACK.
- WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FOR US BEHIND THE
CYCLONE, BUT THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS TO 591DAM OVER LA/MS BY
DAYS 6-7 AS A DEEP TROUGH WORKS INTO THE FOUR-CORNERS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
THE CHAMBER OF COMMERCE DAYS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF OUR REGION WITH
STILL NE WINDS AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE. A DECENT CU FIELD HAS
BLOOMED OVER DEEP EAST TX AND MUCH OF LA, MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD
TODAY. AIR TEMPS ARE CONTINUING TO WARM AS THE COOL AIR MASS TO
OUR NE OF LATE HAS FINALLY MODIFIED. IT LOOKS LIKE GUIDANCE IS
PEAKING OUR HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY WITH LOW TO MID 90S. AFTER A
COOL START, THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS WILL ALSO START TO FEEL A LITTLE
WARMER EACH DAY WITH ADDED MUGGY AIR FROM RISING DEW POINTS.
ALL EYES CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOW TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS WITH
EXPANDING OUTFLOW OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA. THE STORM WAS FOUND
BY NOAA HUNTERS TO BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NOW AT
50 MPH, AND EXPECTATIONS FOR THE BUMP UP TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE OFFICIAL TRACK LIES BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE
GFS AND THE ECMWF ON EITHER SIDE OF MOBILE BAY EARLY THIS
WEEKEND. WE COULD SEE SHOWERS STREAMING INLAND AND ARCING IN OUR
DIRECTION SATURDAY. HEATING WILL ENHANCE THIS COVERAGE, BUT IT'S
A ONCE AND DONE SHOT FOR US, WITH DEPRESSION STATUS IN THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY EARLY ON SUNDAY.
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE, THE MODELS BRING IN A WEAK
1016MB SURFACE HIGH BRIEFLY WITH NW WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES ON
SUNDAY FOR US. WE WILL RETURN TO THE MUGGY FEEL AGAIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS SOME SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN UNDER THE DEVELOPING UPPER
RIDGE. THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP THE WARMER TEMPS GOING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE DEEP TROUGHING ON THE WEST COAST INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BUILD OUR NEW UPPER RIDGE AND LIKELY HELP
THE DROUGHT FESTER TOO LONG. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE A FEW
MORE SYSTEMS OFF THE PACIFIC TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER HEAT DOME
OVER THE MIDSOUTH WITH ANOTHER GOOD COLD FRONT. /24/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
FOR THE 07/18Z TAFS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD FOR AREA TERMINALS. SCATTERED VFR
CU THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE AND LIFT THROUGH THE EVENING,
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.
SOME BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR 08/12Z NORTH OF I-30
AND IN THE VICINITY OF TOLEDO BEND, BUT DIRECT IMPACTS TO
TERMINALS ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, PICKING UP TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5
TO 10 KTS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. /26/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. /26/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 68 92 67 91 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 63 94 63 91 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 60 92 62 91 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 62 92 63 91 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 62 94 61 92 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 67 92 66 90 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 64 93 64 91 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 68 92 66 90 / 0 0 0 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...26
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