035
FXUS64 KSHV 220727
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
227 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
- ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY WITH ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY AS A PESKY UPPER DISTURBANCE LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA.
- A GENERALLY DRY AND WARMER DAY WILL FOLLOW ON THURSDAY UNDER A
WEAK UPPER RIDGE ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL PERSIST UNDER PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY FLOW.
- A MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND,
INCLUDING A DAILY SEVERE WEATHER RISK EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
A WEAK UPPER LOW MEANDERING ALONG THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN
A STRAY THUNDERSTORM ON WEDNESDAY. LIKEWISE, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE ONCE AGAIN UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
OVERCAST SKIES AND THE ACCOMPANYING SCATTERED RAINFALL. EXCEPT FOR
OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES, HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE
THROUGH THE 70S AND WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
EAST WHERE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOWER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE WARMING TREND WILL ACCELERATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND, INITIALLY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ON
THURSDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING AHEAD OF A WEEKEND COLD
FRONT. ALTHOUGH THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY, IT IS PROGGED TO STALL AND EVENTUALLY LIFT BACK
NORTH LATE IN THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, ITS PRESENCE ACROSS OUR N/NW
ZONES COMBINED WITH A MORE PERTURBED SW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT SHOULD
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY FORCING DYNAMICS IN AN INCREASINGLY WARM AND
MOIST ENVIRONMENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON
LATE FRIDAY AND RIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT STALLS.
IN THIS ENVIRONMENT AND CONSIDERING THE TIME OF YEAR, ANTICIPATE
ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER TO BE IN THE MIX IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE
A MULTI-DAY STRETCH OF ACTIVE WEATHER FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH IT'S STILL A
BIT EARLY FOR MORE PRECISE DETAILS, THE SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO
EXPAND MORE SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION BY LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH HELPING TO DRIVE
A COLD FRONT DEEPER INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER, AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF COULD BE
PROBLEMATIC IN RESOLVING EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THIS FRONT
WILL ADVANCE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE, THE FORECAST
IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN FLUX AND POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK.
/19/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, VFR SHRA SATURATING OUR LOWER ATM.
WE'RE HANGING ON TO DRY AIR IN THE WAKE OF OUR LAST AIR MASS, NOW
CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS. WE ARE DRY UP TO 7KFT, FZL IS ONLY
10.5KFT. LGT ICG MAY BE POSS UP TO FL240. SFC WINDS REMAIN E/SE
5-15KT WITH CLIMB WINDS S/SW 15-35KT. W FLOW ALOFT 25-65KT W/ NW
ON KFWDS SOUNDING. IT'S THIS LIGHT NW FLOW PUSHING A WEAK SHORT
WAVE ALONG THE GOFA'S COASTAL BEND OF TX/LA. MOSTLY SHWRS WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND SUN FTM, AS CLOUDS, SOME MVFR 09-18Z,
PROMISE VCSH ON NEARLY EVERY LINE WITH KTYR TO KSHV W/VCTS. /24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 106 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY OF THIS WEEK.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 78 64 84 69 / 50 10 10 10
MLU 81 62 85 65 / 20 10 30 0
DEQ 74 58 80 64 / 40 10 10 30
TXK 78 63 84 68 / 40 10 10 20
ELD 77 58 83 64 / 30 10 20 10
TYR 78 65 83 69 / 40 0 10 10
GGG 78 64 83 68 / 50 10 10 10
LFK 80 64 84 67 / 70 10 10 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...24
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