091
FXUS64 KSHV 211141
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
541 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING IN WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT, WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE REGION. UNDER THESE
CONDITIONS WE ARE SEEING DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS HAVE
DROPPED IN THE 30S AREAWIDE, WITH SOME ISOLATED UPPER 20S ACROSS
SE OKLAHOMA AND SW/SOUTH-CENTRAL ARKANSAS. STILL EXPECTING
FREEZING TEMPS AREAWIDE BY DAYBREAK, WITH WIDESPREAD FROST. LIGHT
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY
UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE, EXPECT BELOW NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPS, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S
TO MIDDLE 50S.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER PATTERN TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION.
EXPECT FREEZING TEMPS AREAWIDE AGAIN, AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. HOWEVER, THE SFC HIGH WILL START
TO SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS
START TO RETURN TO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. FORECAST HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES, TO
THE LOW 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS. /20/
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
THE WEST TO EAST GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING, AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES, TO THE LOWER TO
MID 40S ACROSS EAST TEXAS. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM, BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN. BY MONDAY EVENING,
OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH
DIVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OUT OF THE ROCKIES. A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ALONG THE FLOW, BRINGING A RETURN
OF RAIN CHANCES IN OUR ZONES ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 30.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FOUR STATE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT.
WITH THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE NEGATIVELY TILTED, ALONG WITH
MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEER, WE CAN'T RULE
OUT SOME STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS
PERIOD. ALSO, WPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM.
AS OF NOW, RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS DAY. BUT, THIS DRY
PERIOD WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT EASTWARD OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE RULED
OUT, ALONG WITH MORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WE MAY SEE A BRIEF
BREAK FROM PRECIP ON FRIDAY, BUT LONG-TERM PROGS ARE SUGGESTING
THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE, AS ANOTHER TROUGH SHIFTS
EASTWARD OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. /20/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN NORTHEAST
WINDS 5 TO 8 KNOTS THIS MORNING, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BY 22/00Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD ENDING 22/12Z. /05/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 53 32 59 41 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 49 29 57 34 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 49 27 54 36 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 50 30 57 40 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 49 27 56 34 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 55 33 61 46 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 55 32 60 41 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 57 32 62 42 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...05
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