513
FXUS64 KSHV 082354
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
554 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
- A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS.
- NEAR-RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. MIXED
WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS, WE CONTINUE TO HAVE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WITH MULTIPLE BURN BANS IN EFFECT.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE
FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
RADAR IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH MORE ROBUST CONVECTION WELL NORTH
OF OUR AREA IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA. THINKING THAT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED IN NATURE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT THERE
COULD BE SOME MORE INTENSE CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
NORTHERN ZONES LATER THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAINLY AFTER 00Z.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION, WITH IT
LINGERING INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL
CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY. THIS CONVECTION COULD BE MUCH
MORE ROBUST THAN TODAY, WITH DAMAGING WINDS, SEVERE HAIL, ISOLATED
TORNADOES, AND SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FROM TRAINING STORMS.
ONCE THIS CONVECTION MOVES OUT OF THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING WE WILL SEE AN IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS. BEHIND
THE PASSING FRONT WE WILL GET SOME DECENT CAA THAT WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES STARTING SATURDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SOME SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE PICKING UP ON THE TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS WHERE WINDS HAVE BEEN
SUSTAINED AROUND 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS HAVE PEAKED BETWEEN 30-40
MPH. THUS, A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH 4 PM FOR OUR
FAR WESTERN COUNTIES IN EAST TEXAS. /33/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
MANY SITES HAVE MVFR/IFR CIGS PREVAILING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. IN GENERAL, CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS UNTIL THEY BEGIN TO FALL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS
ARE ALSO DYING DOWN TO A MORE MANAGEABLE SPEED OUT OF THE S/SW
UNTIL THEY SHIFT NORTHERLY AND THEN EASTERLY BEGINNING AROUND
09/09Z WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN AREAS TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER, THERE IS MUCH LESS
CONFIDENCE ON THIS COMPARED TO THE HIGH CONFIDENCE OF LOW CEILINGS
AREAWIDE. CENTRAL AND EASTERN SITES ARE LIKELY TO SEE LIFR CIGS
AROUND AND AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY THAT WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE OF A
FOCUS THURSDAY AFTERNOON THAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE PAST THIS
PERIOD'S CONCLUSION. /57/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY AS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER
MAY BE POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 65 74 50 59 / 30 70 80 10
MLU 67 74 55 63 / 50 80 90 20
DEQ 46 68 40 54 / 10 30 40 0
TXK 57 70 47 56 / 30 50 60 0
ELD 60 71 47 57 / 50 60 90 10
TYR 56 71 44 56 / 10 60 40 0
GGG 59 73 44 57 / 10 70 60 0
LFK 64 74 47 59 / 10 70 80 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...57
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