652
FXUS64 KSHV 240233
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
933 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
VERY LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE, AS THE CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. NOT MUCH CONVECTION IS LEFT ACROSS THE REGION
AT THIS HOUR, WITH THE FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS LEFT EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WE ARE WATCHING A DECAYING
CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING FROM THE EAST INTO LA SALLE AND CALDWELL
PARISHES. IT'S POSSIBLE THIS CLUSTER COULD HELP IGNITE SOME
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO, BUT WE STILL EXPECT ALL PRECIP
TO DIMINISH OVER THE REGION BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE
ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID NIGHT, WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG NEAR DAYBREAK TOMORROW
MORNING IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL TODAY, BUT THAT FOG
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND BRIEF. /20/
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS CONTINUES TO BRING SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NORTHWARD FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION. A WEAK WAVE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF IS PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH FORCING TO AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. COVERAGE SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN THE HIGHEST ACROSS EAST TEXAS, POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS,
WHERE SUBSIDENCE IS THE WEAKEST AND THE ONSHORE FLOW IS MORE
SOUTHERLY AND DIRECT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PERSIST
INTO MID, POSSIBLY LATE THIS EVENING, BUT THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES.
TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE VERY SIMILAR. MORE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN
CLIMB TO BETWEEN 105 AND 109 DEGREES F ACROSS MUCH OF LOUISIANA,
MOST OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS, AND PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS. CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE TO HIGH THAT A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE
SAME AREAS AS TODAY. HOWEVER, WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WARMER, THIS SHOULD EXPAND CRITERIA LEVEL
HEAT INDICES INTO PORTIONS OF MCCURTAIN AND LITTLE RIVER COUNTIES.
THEREFORE, TUESDAY'S HEAT ADVISORY ADDS THESE TWO AREAS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WHILE STILL ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED, ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT A MUCH GREATER PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE ROTATES AROUND THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, BUT MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE ARKLATEX THIS TIME.
HOWEVER, CONVECTION SHOULD STILL REMAIN LARGELY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
AND SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.
NUTTALL
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
I'M STARTING TO FEEL LIKE A BROKEN RECORD. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. THE CENTER
OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE
SOUTHWEST INTO KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORK WEEK. THE OVERALL EFFECT WILL BE TO CONFINE RAIN CHANCES TO
ONLY OUR SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES OF DEEP EAST TEXAS EASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL LOUISIANA. COMBINED WITH THE INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY CLIMB UPWARD. BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK, DAYTIME HIGHS IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 90S AND POSSIBLY AT THE
CENTURY MARK. HEAT HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO BE NEEDED
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT SUNDAY. AFTER
FRIDAY, RAIN CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM LUFKIN TX TO MONROE LA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN AND FLATTEN BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THE
CENTER OF THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BE DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA, WHICH WILL KEEP HOT TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY LOW RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
NUTTALL
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
FOR THE 24/00Z TAF UPDATE...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE TRYING TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING, WITH THE MORE ROBUST STORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS THAT WILL IMPACT KLFK HERE SHORTLY.
OTHERWISE, STORMS HAVE BEEN HAVING A HARD TIME MAINTAINING
THEMSELVES AND ARE DECAYING QUICKER THAN THEY CAN GET GOING.
NONETHELESS, STILL HAVE SOME MENTION OF THUNDER IN FOR MOST
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ASIDE FROM THAT, WILL PROBABLY
SEE SOME LOWER CIGS AND VISIBILITY DUE TO SOME BR OVERNIGHT, WITH
THIS CONCERN MAINLY FOR KELD, KLFK, AND KMLU. LASTLY, WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD. /33/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 117 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
WHILE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS, THE NEED FOR SPOTTER
ACTIVATION RESULTING FROM WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT
LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 76 96 77 96 / 20 30 10 10
MLU 76 95 76 96 / 10 20 10 10
DEQ 75 93 72 93 / 10 20 0 10
TXK 77 96 75 96 / 20 20 0 10
ELD 75 95 73 96 / 10 20 0 10
TYR 75 92 74 92 / 20 20 0 20
GGG 75 93 73 93 / 20 30 0 20
LFK 74 94 73 92 / 20 30 10 30
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ059>061-
070>073.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LAZ001>006-
010>014-017>022.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR OKZ077.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR TXZ097-112-126-
138-151>153-165>167.
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...33
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