097
FXUS64 KSHV 041945
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
245 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
- SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN SPILLING SOUTH INTO
THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING.
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE COMING WORK
WEEK, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK TO NEAR
90/LOWER 90S FOR MID AND LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
WELCOME RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF E TX/N LA AS OF EARLY
AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THESE RAINS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO DEEPEN/SPILL SSE INTO
THE REGION NEAR AND AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM
THE DESERT SW N INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY DOES CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM SW TX NE THROUGH N TX/CNTRL OK, WHICH REMAINS
PROGGED TO DRIFT E INTO E TX/N LA EVEN AS THE DEEP LEVEL DRY AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NNW. WHILE THE LOW STRATUS CIGS
SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT THIS EVENING OVER MUCH OF LOWER E TX/N LA,
CU AND OTHER ELEVATED CIGS SHOULD LINGER ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
THE AREA TONIGHT, WHICH WILL MINIMIZE THE EXTENT OF WEAK COLD
ADVECTION THAT WILL COMMENCE AHEAD OF SFC RIDGING BUILDING E INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY. THUS, A LARGE SPREAD IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT, WHERE TEMPS WERE BUMPED UP A BIT ABOVE THE NBM FOR THE
SRN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF
COOL/DRY ADVECTION.
WHILE THE VARIOUS SHORT TERM PROGS SUGGEST THAT THE WEAK SHEAR
AXIS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION MONDAY, MUCH OF THE CU FIELD
SHOULD SCATTER OUT AND GRADUALLY ERODE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER
LOWER E TX/N LA. AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND AND WARM BACK TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE DAILY NORMS GIVEN THE INCREASED
INSOLATION, WITH A MORE NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE DRIER AIR
CHARACTERISTIC OF DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S OVER ALL BUT DEEP E
TX/NCNTRL LA. SHOULD START TO SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF MORE "COOLER"
AND MORE FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL NOT BE QUITE IDEAL YET AS LIGHT NE SFC WINDS PERSIST
ALONG THE BASE OF THE SFC RIDGING.
MORE OF A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK, AS THE UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO EXPAND SE INTO
THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY. THUS, AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE
CLIMBING NEAR/IN EXCESS OF 90 DEGREES FOR MID AND LATE WEEK UNDER
STRONG INSOLATION, ALTHOUGH THE EARLY MORNINGS WILL REMAIN
PLEASANT AND NEAR SEASONAL GIVEN THE DRY AIR THAT WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE VARIOUS PROGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT A WEAK UPPER LOW/TROUGH MAY PINCH OFF FROM THE NW FLOW OVER
TX BY THURSDAY, EVENTUALLY DRIFTING E ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE STILL IS A SPREAD AMONGST THE VARIOUS
GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE
REGION, AND WHETHER OR NOT ENOUGH OF A DEEP SRLY RETURN FLOW WILL
RESUME NEAR/AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE TO HELP FOCUS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. WHILE THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE
NBM INTEGRATED INTO THIS FORECAST IS MORE BULLISH WITH POPS NEXT
WEEKEND, THE 12Z GUIDANCE THIS MORNING IS MUCH DRIER, CONFINING
THE MORE CONCENTRATED CONVECTION FARTHER SE INTO S AND SE LA.
THUS, THE LATTER EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE SUBJECT TO CHANGES ONCE
THE GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.
15
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE LOOSENING UP AFTER A
COOL RAINY START. THE UPPER LOW IS OVER NE TX AND FINALLY SHOVING
THE TROPICAL AXIS OF MOISTURE OVER SE TX/ARKLAMISS. KLFK/KMLU STILL
HAVE SHWRS/OCNL TS FOR A FEW MORE HRS AS VFR SKIES CLEAR FROM NW TO
SE EARLY ON MONDAY. NE SFC WINDS ARE 5-15KT AND CLIMB WINDS ARE NE10-
20KT UP TO 12KFT. FRZ LEVEL IS 14.6KFT W/ NO SAT. ALOFT, BUT STILL
LOADS OF THIS PACIFIC CIRRUS. LIGHT W WINDS ABV FRZ BUMP FROM 15 TO
50KT BY FL360. GROUND IS DRYING WITH DECENT SPREADS AT DAYBREAK
PRECLUDE ANY BR AS WE MOVE BACK TO BLUE SKY OPS FOR THE NEW WEEK.
/24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 65 86 60 89 / 10 0 0 0
MLU 66 87 60 90 / 20 0 0 0
DEQ 57 85 52 86 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 60 85 56 87 / 10 0 0 0
ELD 59 87 54 88 / 10 0 0 0
TYR 64 84 60 86 / 10 0 0 0
GGG 63 86 58 88 / 10 0 0 0
LFK 67 87 64 88 / 20 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...24
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