823
FXUS64 KSHV 010524 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1124 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
- S/SW WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A NICE WARM-UP THROUGH THIS WEEK.
- SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A BRIEF SHOWER OR DRIZZLE WITH A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE,FOLLOWED BY A COOL FRONT ARRIVING ON FRIDAY.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER WEEKEND, BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE. LITTLE IF ANY
RAINFALL WILL RENEW CONCERNS FOR WILDFIRES AND DROUGHT MONITOR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 932 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS BEGUN TO TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION AND
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WARM THE AREA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
TEMPERATURES FOR NEW YEAR'S DAY WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S, WITH SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN RH COMPARED TO THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. FRIDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER, WITH AREAS SOUTH OF I-20
FLIRTING WITH 80 DEGREE HIGHS ONCE AGAIN.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE FLOW ALOFT COULD BRING SOME
TEMPORARY RELIEF GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WOULD
MOVE OVER THE OZARK MOUNTAINS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND BRING SOME
VORTICITY. THE LIFT FROM THIS VORTICITY LOOKS TO KEEP ANY SHOWERS
MOSTLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE ARK-LA-TX, BUT SOME FAR EDGES
OF OUR FORECAST REGION COULD SEE SOME SPRINKLES. THE SECOND
SHORTWAVE WILL BE DRIER AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY MORNING.
RECENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING THAT THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL HAVE GREATER VERTICAL EXTENT, WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THIS SETUP SHOULD BRING A NORTHERLY
WIND SHIFT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO A
SOUTHERN ORIENTATION AND RESTART ANOTHER WARMING TREND.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE TO THE
70S BY MIDWEEK WITH CONDITIONS STAYING DRY. THERE MAY BE A
COLORADO LOW DEVELOPING TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
CURRENT LONG-RANGE MODELS HAVE THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING
ON THURSDAY AND PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY THE EARLIEST THE
FOUR STATE REGION WILL SEE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE, SO IT WILL BE A PRIMARY FOCUS OVER THE NEXT
WEEK OR SO.
57
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 01/06Z TAF PERIOD. AREAS
OF THIN CIRRUS CIGS OVER CNTRL/WRN OK INTO MUCH OF TX WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ESE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT, AS IT
GRADUALLY THICKENS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THE APPROACH OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE SRN PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING WILL
YIELD AN INCREASE IN AC CIGS BY MID TO LATE EVENING OVER E TX,
WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME AREAS OF SPRINKLES, WHICH WILL SPREAD E
OVER THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS MAY HELP TO LOWER
THE AC CIGS SOME, NO VSBY ISSUES ARE EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW VFR CIG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
EXTREME SE TX/S LA, WHICH SHOULD SPREAD NE INTO TOLEDO BEND
COUNTRY AND NCNTRL LA JUST AFTER THE END OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. SW
WINDS 5KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 8-10KTS AFTER 16Z. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 43 70 56 78 / 0 0 10 0
MLU 39 69 52 76 / 0 0 10 10
DEQ 33 65 46 69 / 0 0 20 0
TXK 39 69 53 74 / 0 0 10 0
ELD 35 67 50 71 / 0 0 20 10
TYR 42 69 57 77 / 0 0 10 0
GGG 40 70 55 78 / 0 0 10 0
LFK 38 70 55 79 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...15
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