354
FXUS64 KSHV 100420
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1120 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
- THE SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED AND REMAINS MINIMAL THIS
AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE BEFORE DIMINISHING BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.
- THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
THE MIDDAY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DRIER AIR HAS BEGUN
TO ENTRAIN E AHEAD OF THE WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER NCNTRL OK, WITH THE BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING HAVING ALSO
SPREAD NE INTO CNTRL/ERN AR. AS A RESULT, ORGANIZED CONVECTION
HAS SHARPLY DIMINISHED/SHIFTED NE OUT OF THE REGION, AND ANY
REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE, AND
NOT AS ROBUST AS WHAT WAS OBSERVED EARLIER. THUS, SVR WATCH #28
HAS BEEN CANCELLED EARLY FOR SE OK/MUCH OF SW AR. HOWEVER, STILL
WATCHING SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP FARTHER S ACROSS CNTRL LA,
ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASED THETA-E ADVECTION AND THE TRAILING EDGE
OF A WEAK PERTURBATION ALOFT OVER THE MID-SOUTH REGION. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING FROM W TO E BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS MLCAPES HAVE RISEN TO
1000-1500 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR WILL REMAIN ADEQUATE NEAR 40KTS FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE ORGANIZED CELLS.
OUR FOCUS TURNS TO THE W AS THE CLOSED LOW JUST W OF BAJA HAS
BEGUN TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE PENINSULA, DRIFTING E INTO NW OLD
MX TUESDAY. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY, WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DEEPENING ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE SWRLY LLJ OVER ECNTRL TX
INTO SE OK/SW AR AS A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS ALOFT EJECT NE OVER
THESE AREAS. THUS, INCREASED LARGE SCALE FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN
AN INCREASE IN SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER
PORTIONS OF NE TX INTO SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR. CAN'T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SEVERE RISK OVER THESE AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
THICKENING CLOUD COVER AND EXPANDING CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT THE
EXTENT OF INSOLATION AND THUS, SFC BASED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER,
DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE
DRYLINE OVER W TX, WITH A LINEAR LINE OF SEVERE CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO EXPAND NNE ALONG THE BNDRY BEFORE SHIFTING E AS THE
TROUGH AND ATTENDANT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT DRIFTS INTO FAR W TX AFTER
06Z WEDNESDAY. THIS CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO HOLD
TOGETHER INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS IT MARCHES E, BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO AS THE AIR MASS BEGINS TO STABILIZE
OVER E TX/SW AR.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE CONVECTION MAY SLOW OR
TEMPORARILY HALT ITS EWD PROGRESS OVER E TX WEDNESDAY, UNTIL THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IS ABLE TO REINFORCE THE CONVECTION BACK E
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IF THIS
DOES OCCUR, A FLASH FLOOD THREAT WOULD MATERIALIZE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA AS RAIN RATES WOULD EXCEED ALLOWED INFILTRATION ACROSS
THE STILL DRY TOPSOIL. WHILE THE PRESENCE OF THE SWRLY LLJ AND
STRONG BULK SHEAR SHOULD MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION THROUGH
AND JUST AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY, ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION MAY
OCCUR AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ONCE INSOLATION COMMENCES, LEADING TO
INCREASING MLCAPES THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS
PROGGED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT SFC BASED
INSTABILITY MAY HELP FOR SOME REINTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE STRONGER CONVECTION EXITS THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING. STILL COULD SEE ADDITIONAL POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT NEAR THE NEAR-CLOSED LOW CENTER OVER DEEP
E TX/NCNTRL LA, BEFORE EXITING THE REGION BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY BE SEEN SHOULD THE LINEAR LINE OF CONVECTION
SLOW/STALL WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW IN WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY, AS SFC RIDGING BUILDS SE INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS LIGHT SRLY BNDRY LYR WINDS
RETURN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS, AND FLAT H850-700
RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD TO ALONG THE SE TX/S LA GULF COAST. THUS,
THE RETURN TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
THIS NEXT WEEKEND, WITH A GRADUAL UPTICK IN HUMIDITY RETURNING
NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL. HOWEVER, A DRY NW FLOW LATE THIS WEEK WILL
BECOME ZONAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEKEND, MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS
IN PLACE. A RETURN TO MUCH COOLER/NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
REMAINS SLATED TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT, WHICH MAY BRING A LIGHT FREEZE TO AT LEAST
THE NRN ZONES BY THIS TIME.
15
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
NOT SEEING IT YET BUT MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD QUICKLY OVERSPREAD OUR
AIRSPACE IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL, MOISTURE
ADVECTION IN PLACE. PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUCH THAT CEILINGS
"SHOULD" STAY IN THE 1-2KFT THROUGH SUNRISE BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
BRIEF IFR CEILINGS NEAR 8HDFT AS WELL. THOSE CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW
TO IMPROVE POST SUNRISE BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY BY LATE MORNING AND
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN ADDITION, AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE TYR/GGG/TXK/SHV AND ELD
TERMINALS AS WELL BUT THAT CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY END OR
DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING. HAVE MADE NOTE OF ALL THIS WITH THE NEW
06Z TAF PACKAGE. LOOK FOR S WINDS TODAY NEAR 10KTS WITH MUCH
HIGHER PRESSURE GRADIENT GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR
AIRSPACE AND OF COURSE STRONGER AND GUSTY NEAR AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING CONVECTION.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT, BUT MAY
BE NEEDED TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 68 83 68 78 / 20 20 40 90
MLU 67 84 68 82 / 30 10 10 80
DEQ 64 78 62 70 / 20 60 80 90
TXK 68 82 67 74 / 20 40 60 90
ELD 65 82 65 78 / 20 20 30 90
TYR 68 82 66 75 / 10 40 80 90
GGG 68 83 67 76 / 10 30 60 90
LFK 69 83 67 78 / 20 20 40 90
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...13
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