651
FXUS64 KSHV 080631
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1231 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
- A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE SMALL RAIN CHANCES TO MUCH OF
THE REGION TUE NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN IMPACTING OUR REGION THU
NIGHT WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES SLATED FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
BEAUTIFUL DAY TODAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FOUR STATE REGION WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS. HIGHS TODAY RANGED
MOSTLY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. EXPECT SUNDAY TO BE A CARBON COPY
OF TODAY WITH HIGHS RANGING MOSTLY IN THE 70S AREAWIDE WITH MORE
IN THE WAY OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO OUR WIND...ALLOWING FOR THE
BETTER WARMUP.
OUR REGION IS CURRENTLY UNDER WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT BUT
THAT RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES OUR WAY FROM THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS TROUGH IS MOISTURE
STARVED SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION WITH IT AND THE COLD
FRONT THAT LOOKED LIKE IT MIGHT TRY TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST
TOWARDS THE I-30 CORRIDOR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT MIGHT NOT MAKE IT THAT FAR SOUTH BEFORE RETURNING BACK TO
THE NORTH ON MONDAY. WEAK UPPER RIDGING REPLACES THE SUNDAY NIGHT
TROUGH FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BUT UPSTREAM UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO
TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THAT FLOW SHOULD HELP TO BRING
SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF FINALLY IN ADVANCE OF OUR
NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POISED TO BEGIN IMPACTING OUR REGION THU
NIGHT BUT ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND.
MEDIUM RANGE PROGS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON TIMING AND DEGREE OF
AMPLITUDE OF THIS NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE LATE NEXT WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND SO NBM CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST
ARE WARRANTED UNTIL PROGS CAN COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. NOT
SEEING ANYTHING TO REALLY GET EXCITED ABOUT CONCERNING STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS LATE WEEK TROUGH FOR NOW BUT IF THE
TROUGH WERE TO SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW FOR A LITTLE MORE AMPLITUDE AS
THE LATEST EC SUGGESTS, THEN WE COULDN'T TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME
STRONG STORMS IN THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIMEFRAME BUT LOTS OF TIME TO
RULE THAT IN OR OUT WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.
13
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
EXPECTING ALMOST ENTIRELY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD
(NOW THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING), ALTHOUGH LFK COULD BE AN EXCEPTION
IN THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. AT THAT SITE, AND ACROSS MUCH OF DEEP
EAST TX, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST PATCHY MVFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITH EVEN A CHANCE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
CEILINGS (MAINLY FROM 8 AM CDT TO 11 AM CDT). A TEMPO GROUP IN THAT
TIME WINDOW WAS USED AT LFK TO HELP EXPRESS THIS UNCERTAINTY.
OTHERWISE, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE REST OF THE FOUR
STATE REGION WILL BE VERY MARGINAL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, ALTHOUGH
A WEAK INCOMING DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL SPILL A DECENT COVERAGE OF
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS (BASED BETWEEN 12 AND 25 KFT) DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW AND LASTING THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. FINALLY,
ANTICIPATE LIGHT ESE SURFACE WINDS FROM 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION, VEERING AROUND TO SSW THROUGH THE MORNING TO MIDDAY
HOURS TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER TOMORROW WITH RANGES
FROM 10 TO 15 MPH AND SOME HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH CANNOT BE RULED
OUT - ESPECIALLY AT TYR, TXK, AND GGG.
/50/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 45 77 54 79 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 39 73 52 77 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 38 70 43 76 / 0 10 0 0
TXK 44 75 51 78 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 38 73 49 77 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 49 77 54 79 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 46 77 52 79 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 46 75 54 78 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...50
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