309
FXUS64 KSHV 111822
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1222 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 949 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
- FIRE STARTS AND SPREADING WILL BE MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION TODAY DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS AND
ELEVATED WINDS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY BOUNCE BACK TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW
80S THROUGH THIS WEEK.
- RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST LATE THIS WEEKEND, EVEN WITH MODEL
UNCERTAINTIES REMAINING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 949 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. AS SUCH, THE FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 11PM CST TONIGHT. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
BELOW 10MPH BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND BRIEFLY COME UP AGAIN MIDDAY
BEFORE WEAKENING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PROMOTE A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THIS WEEK. LUCKILY, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL ALSO BE
PRESENT AND HELP TO REDUCE FIRE DANGER WITH THIS WARM UP.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S BY THE
WEEKEND WITH FEW CLOUDS TO SPEAK OF.
THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN CONTINUES TO BE HARD TO PIN DOWN. MODELS
HAVE ALLUDED TO A GENERAL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND
BRINGING RAIN AND A POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER RISK. RECENT MODEL
GUIDANCE IS LEANING MORE INTO THE SOLUTION OF A CUTOFF LOW
DEVELOPING AND TAKING ON A MUCH SLOWER PROROGATION SPEED. THE NBM
IS STARTING TO ALIGN WITH THIS TREND AND HAS SHIFTED POPS TO BE
FIRST INTRODUCED TO THE ARK-LA-TX AT 06Z ON SUNDAY. THIS IS STILL
EARLIER THAN SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING, BUT FUTURE PACKAGES
COULD CONTINUE THIS TREND IF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ALIGN THIS
WAY. THE NBM ALSO IS KEEPING POPS IN THE FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THIS LOW. IF THE
PERSISTANT RAIN VERIFIES, THERE SHOULD BE SOME DROUGHT RELIEF ON
THE WAY FOR THE REGION.
57
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
FOR THE 11/18Z TAF PERIOD, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MOSTLY SKC ASIDE FROM SOME VERY THIN CIRRUS TRAVERSING OUR
AIRSPACE. THIS GENERAL TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS GUSTY
S/SW WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS. BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, SOME CU/STRATOCU AROUND 3KFT IS EXPECTED TO
EXPAND NORTHWARD FROM THE COAST WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING GULF MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AIRSPACE. ALTHOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT MVFR CIGS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 TERMINALS BY 12/09Z,
HAVE LIMITED COVERAGE TO JUST SCT FOR NOW AND WILL REEVALUATE IN
FUTURE TAF CYCLES.
/19/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST MON NOV 10 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 52 78 57 82 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 46 77 54 79 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 39 71 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 48 74 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 45 72 49 77 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 53 77 57 81 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 49 77 55 81 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 51 79 57 82 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...19
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