282
FXUS64 KSHV 131747
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1247 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
- A HUMID AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MID-WEEK, WHERE BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAIN/FLASH FLOODING
AND GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL BRING MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
- A HEIGHTENED WILDFIRE THREAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT FRIDAY
AND THE DRIER AIR THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS A STRONG AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND RIDGING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT GULF, WHILE UPSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE, A
LONGWAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE WEST COAST ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH A
CLOSED LOW LOCATED ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION. CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US,
MID-ATLANTIC REGION, AND OH AND TN VALLEYS, WITH LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDED FROM ITS SOUTHWEST INTO THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY, THE ABOVE PATTERN WOULD NORMALLY HIGHLIGHT
A QUIET WEATHER-DAY, BROADLY SPEAKING. HOWEVER, SEVERAL NUANCES
ARE AT PLAY; THE FIRST BEING A VERY SUBTLE VORT MAX ROUNDING THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
THE SECOND BEING A SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH. WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX IS
QUITE SUBTLE, IT LIKELY WILL/ALREADY IS CONTRIBUTING TO SOME
LARGER SCALE LIFT, AND WILL ONLY AID BOTH DAYTIME HEATING AND THIS
HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS IN GENERATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE LACK OF SHEAR TODAY, ALONG
WITH MEAGER MID AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED. THAT SAID, SEVERAL STRONGER STORMS COULD MATERIALIZE AS
MLCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1000-2000J/KG TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ALSO APPEAR FAVORABLE AS PWAT
VALUES TOP 2 INCHES. THIS COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF FLASH FLOOD
THREAT, ESPECIALLY GIVEN EXTREMELY DRY SOILS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
INITIAL RUNOFF AS WELL AS THE USUAL URBAN FLOODING AND PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. CONDITIONS WILL
QUIET DOWN OVERNIGHT WITH A HUMID AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE AND
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING (ESPECIALLY WHERE RAINFALL WAS RECEIVED).
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A FIRM HOLD OVERHEAD ON
WEDNESDAY, WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE EAST, WITH
THE FOUR STATE REGION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. GIVEN THAT THIS
GENERAL PATTERN IS ESSENTIALLY IDENTICAL TO TUESDAY'S, IT SEEMS
REASONABLE TO BELIEVE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. AS A
RESULT OF THIS THINKING, RAIN CHANCES WERE NUDGED UPWARD IN SOME
AREAS, ESSENTIALLY WHERE GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE
SFC RIDGE GENERALLY WEST OF I-49 AND SOUTH OF I-30. TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS APPEAR THE MAIN CONCERN AGAIN, ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY
WINDS.
THE SURFACE HIGH ATTEMPTS TO SLIDE BACK WESTWARD BRIEFLY ON
THURSDAY, ENOUGH SO THAT ITS INFLUENCE ALONG THE NOW-DAMPENING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CAN WORK TOGETHER ENOUGH TO LARGELY PREVENT RAIN
CHANCES. AS SUCH, DEWPOINTS WILL DROP SEVERAL DEGREES BACK INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. WHILE THIS WILL GIVE MIN RH VALUES A
CHANCE TO SLIDE DOWN INTO THE 30 PERCENT RANGE, LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVENT A MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERN, ALTHOUGH THIS
WILL BE ABOUT TO CHANGE.
ON FRIDAY, OUR FIRST STRONG COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A RESULT OF THE CLOSED UPPER
LOW MENTIONED IN THE FIRST PARAGRAPH MIGRATES INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS AND BECOMES ABSORBED INTO A STRONG BELT OF WESTERLY
FLOW WITHIN THE POLAR JET ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A ~1040MB
SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT, CAUSING A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FRIDAY WILL
THEREFORE FEATURE A STIFF NW WIND OF 15-20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH.
AS DEW POINTS DROP SIGNIFICANTLY INTO THE 40S AND 50S BEHIND THE
FRONT THROUGH THE DAY, MIN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. WHILE IT CURRENTLY DOES NOT APPEAR
THAT RED FLAG CRITERIA WILL BE MET, IT'S NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES, ESPECIALLY IF DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE FACTORED IN.
AT THE VERY LEAST A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE NEEDED.
AS THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH THEN MODERATES SOME INTO SATURDAY AND
THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA, THE LOCAL AREA WILL EXPERIENCE THE
COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE FALL SEASON, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S. WHILE THIS WILL LIKELY SOUND
REFRESHING TO MANY, UNFORTUNATELY THE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
WORSEN, WITH A STOUT PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL AT PLAY, RESULTING IN
BREEZY NE WINDS GUSTING 20-25 MPH, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-20. MIN
RH VALUES WILL THEN DIP WELL INTO THE 20 PERCENT RANGE. WHILE
WINDS EASE ON SUNDAY AND SEASONABLY MODERATE TEMPERATURES HANG
AROUND, FIRE WEATHER WILL STILL REMAIN A CONCERN.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO MODERATE ON MONDAY, WITH HIGHS
RETURNING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS SURGING BACK
TOWARDS 60.
KOVACIK
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
FOR THE 13/18Z TAF UPDATE...MOISTURE HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, WITH LOWER CEILINGS HANGING ON FOR MOST OF
THE MORNING. RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION, WITH SOME STRONGER RETURNS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA. FOR THIS REASON I HAVE INTRODUCED
VCSH FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS WE MOVE
FURTHER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, I WILL KEEP MENTION OF VCTS AS
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP SOME STRIKES. GOING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, I HAVE INTRODUCED SOME ADDITIONAL LOWER CIGS, DOWN
TO MVFR FOR MOST TERMINALS AND A PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY IFR FOR KLFK
WITH SOME MENTION OF BR AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER HERE, BUT AS
MENTIONED EARLIER, WE DID HOLD ONTO LOWER CIGS THROUGH MOST OF THE
MORNING SO I DON'T SEE ANY REASON WHY WE WOULDN'T DO THE SAME
TONIGHT. /33/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 73 92 66 91 / 10 10 0 0
MLU 68 95 63 93 / 20 0 0 0
DEQ 71 93 64 91 / 10 30 10 0
TXK 73 93 66 91 / 10 20 10 0
ELD 71 94 64 93 / 10 10 0 0
TYR 75 92 68 90 / 10 20 0 0
GGG 73 93 66 91 / 10 20 0 0
LFK 72 92 64 90 / 10 10 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...33
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