342
FXUS64 KSHV 070045
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
645 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
- SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME
NORTHEAST TEXAS, SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.
- MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS, NORTH
LOUISIANA, AND SOUTHCENTRAL ARKANSAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
THE MORNING STRATUS SHIELD HAS BEGUN TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION
LATE THIS MORNING, BUT CIGS ARE STRUGGLING TO SCATTER OUT AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEGUN TO DEEPEN, AHEAD OF A POTENT UPPER TROUGH
DRIFTING E THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ALSO TIGHTENED AS EXPECTED, WITH GUSTY S
WINDS NOTED ON THE 17-18Z OBS ESPECIALLY OVER E TX/WRN LA/EXTREME
SW AR AND SE OK, WITH GUSTS OF 25+KTS OBSERVED. THE LATEST SFC
ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES THAT THE DRY LINE HAS BEGUN TO MIX E AS
WELL OUT OF THE TX PANHANDLE INTO FAR WRN OK INTO THE BIG COUNTRY
OF WCNTRL TX, AND SHOULD MAKE BETTER PROGRESS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, WITH A 35-40+ KT SRLY LLJ ADVECTING HIGHER THETA-E AIR
NWD FROM NCNTRL TX INTO ERN OK. THIS HAS TRANSLATED INTO SBCAPES
OF 1000-2000 J/KG ALREADY OVER THESE AREAS, WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO CLIMB THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL WARM ADVECTION AND
INSOLATION. 0-6KM SHEAR REMAINS STRONGEST (30-40+ KTS) AS OF 18Z
OVER MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN OK, WHICH SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY MORE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS PVA INCREASES IN THE SWRLY FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY EJECTING UPPER TROUGH TO OUR W.
WITH THE ENVIRONMENT BEING PRIMED, INCREASE LARGE SCALE FORCING
SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT BY MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON NEAR AND E OF THE DRYLINE, WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS MAINTAINING THE STRONGEST CONVECTION JUST WNW OF
THE REGION UNTIL SHORTLY BEFORE 00Z SATURDAY. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS TO HOW FAR E THE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE REMAINS DURING
THE EVENING NW OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR, AS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS FARTHER SSW INTO NCNTRL TX, BEFORE THE CONVECTION IS ABLE
TO SLOWLY SPREAD MORE EWD INTO SW AR AND NE TX OVERNIGHT. HAVE
MAINTAINED SEVERE MENTION FOR THE NW ZONES THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH
THE CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH THE STABILIZING BNDRY
LYR, ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE MAINTAINED BY THE PRESENCE
OF A 40KT SWRLY LLJ, STEEP LAPSE RATES, ADDITIONAL FORCING
EMBEDDED IN THE SWRLY MEAN FLOW ALOFT, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MESOSCALE BNDRYS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EARLIER CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT. THE NBM REMAINS MUCH TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH POPS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT, AND THUS HAVE BACKED OFF POPS TO
SOME EXTENT THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING POPS TO
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL LATE ESPECIALLY ALONG/N OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
THE HRRR DOESN'T HINT AT MUCH THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
NRN ZONES, AND IT ISN'T UNTIL A COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE
LATE OVER ERN OK DOES IT REALLY INCREASE CONVECTION ALONG THE
FRONT BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
THE SHORT TERM PROGS SUGGEST WE MAY BE DEALING WITH TWO AREAS OF
CONVECTION INITIALLY...ONE INITIATING ACROSS THE NW AND NRN ZONES
THIS EVENING OVERNIGHT, AS IT REDEVELOPS FARTHER SSW ALONG THE
SWRLY LLJ/THETA-E AXIS, AS WELL AS ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE AS IT
ENTERS THE REGION BY MID AND LATE MORNING SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY, BUT DIURNAL HEATING
AND ATTENDANT INSTABILITY SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN CONVECTION THROUGH
THE DAY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS, WITH THE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
REINFORCE THE FRONT S THROUGH E TX/N LA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WEAK OVERRUNNING ATOP THE FRONT COUPLED WITH ADDITIONAL
FORCING ALOFT WITH THE PERTURBATIONS IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
MAINTAIN CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT OVER MUCH OF THE REGION SATURDAY
EVENING, BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING/SHIFTING SE OVERNIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3+ INCHES
ARE EXPECTED, WHICH SHOULD HELP EASE THE SEVERE/EXTREME DROUGHT
CONDITIONS IN PLACE, BUT GIVEN THAT THE RAINS SHOULD BE SPREAD OUT
IN TIME, ANY FLOODING SHOULD BE LOCALIZED ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCERS OVER THE SAME AREAS.
THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT N AND EVENTUALLY
WASH OUT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, EXPANDING THE WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR BACK N. WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY, WE WILL
HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE CLOSED LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP AS IT BRANCHES
OFF FROM THE CURRENT UPPER TROUGH OUT W AND SETTLES IN OVER THE
BAJA REGION. TIMING AND STRENGTH UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN AMONGST THE
VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, WITH A MORE CLOSED SOLUTION
SIMILAR TO THE GEFS IMPLYING THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST
LONGER ACROSS THE REGION INSTEAD OF A MORE RAPIDLY EJECTING
TROUGH. IN ANY CASE, THE BLENDS SUGGEST THAT THE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR INCREASING
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THIS EJECTING SYSTEM, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN RETURNING TO THE
REGION.
15
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, VFR GOING INTO THE EVENING WITH MORE
MVFR CIGS ASSEMBLING OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-15KT OVERNIGHT
WITH A FEW GUSTS. A COLD FRONT WILL SEEP INTO OUR AREA BY SUNDOWN
ON SATURDAY. THE MODELS VARY, BUT EXPECTATIONS REMAIN FOR GOOD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY DAYBREAK, SPREADING SE ACROSS NE TX AND
INTO AR/LA IN THE 16-20Z COVERAGE INTENSIFIES WITH HEATING AND
THE FRONT ARRIVING. W/NW WINDS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AND FILTER TO OUR S BY 06Z. /24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS, SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA, AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 69 81 61 74 / 70 90 80 40
MLU 69 82 63 74 / 50 90 80 70
DEQ 64 72 49 73 / 90 80 50 10
TXK 67 77 55 73 / 90 90 70 20
ELD 67 76 56 71 / 80 100 80 40
TYR 69 78 55 73 / 70 90 80 20
GGG 68 79 56 74 / 70 80 80 30
LFK 69 83 61 75 / 40 90 90 60
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...24
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