800
FXUS64 KSHV 120621
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
121 AM CDT MON MAY 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 858 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2025
CHANGES WERE MINOR TONIGHT AND JUST INCLUDED ADDING SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE TO GO ALONG WITH THE PATCHY FOG THAT IS
ALSO IN THE FORECAST AS WE ARE STILL SEEING SOME DRIZZLE AND/OR
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW LA, NE TX, SE OK AND SW AR. AREAS
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEAST HAVE LOST THEIR CLOUD COVER BUT IT SHOULD
REFORM AGAIN OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH POSSIBLE PATCHY DENSE FOG AND WE
COULD STILL SQUEEZE SOME DRIZZLE OUT OF THIS PER THE 12Z HREF
OUTPUT. ALSO EXTENDED THIS POSSIBILITY INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS
ON MONDAY BUT DID NOT CHANGE ANYTHING BEYOND MID MORNING. HOURLY
TEMPERATURES ARE BEHAVING INSIDE AND OUTSIDE OF THE CLOUD COVER
AND PATCHY PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING SO NO CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT
MIN TEMPS.
UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT...13.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2025
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO SHOWCASE A
BROAD SPIN ACROSS THE SOUTH AS OUR STATIONARY UPPER DISTURBANCE
REMAINS OVERHEAD. THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW, THAT HAS
CONTINUED TO SLIDE WEST, HAS SUPPORTED LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING EAST OF THE FA, VISIBLE
SATELLITE ADVERTISES CLEARING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
MISSISSIPPI. THOUGH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE EVIDENT ACROSS
THE EASTERN ZONES, THE MAJORITY OF THE FA REMAINS LOCKED IN WITH
A LOW AND DENSE OVERCAST. HREF CLOUD COVER AND ENSEMBLE MEANS DO
ADVERTISE THAT THE CLOUD COVERAGE MAY BEGIN TO BREAK TO SOME
DEGREE HEADING INTO THE EVENING. AS A RESULT, HI-RES SURFACE
VISIBILITY GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT, WITH A CORRIDOR OF DENSE FOG ACROSS
SOME OF THE LOUISIANA PARISHES AND ARKANSAS COUNTIES THROUGH
SUNRISE MONDAY AM.
HEADING INTO MONDAY, WE BEGIN THE SLOW TRANSITION FROM THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER LOW TO REINTRODUCING UPPER RIDGING, THOUGH THE BULK OF
THE UPPER RIDGE INFLUENCE WON'T BE UNTIL TUESDAY, HEADING INTO MID-
WEEK. GIVEN THE GRADUAL NATURE OF THE UPPER LOW DEPARTURE, MOISTURE
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL BE PRESENT ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-
49 CORRIDOR. THIS LINES UP WITH WHERE THE HI-RES AND CAM OUTPUT
ADVERTISES ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND MOVE
OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ALLOWING
FOR RIDGING TO BUILD IN.
KNAPP
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2025
THE LONG TERM FORECAST FEATURES THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRETCH OF
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES AS UPPER RIDGING, AND
PROLONGED SURFACE SOUTHERLIES RETURN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW,
WITH RIDGE AMPLIFICATION OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. AS A RESULT, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NON-EXISTENT THROUGH
THE BEGINNING OF THE LT PERIOD, WITH DAILY MAXT'S CLIMBING WELL
INTO THE 90'S. FOR NOW, GUIDANCE IS DIALING IN ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BEING THE WARMEST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, WITH THE AXIS
OF THE UPPER RIDGE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD DURING THIS TIME. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS CALLING FOR POSSIBLE MID 90'S BOTH DAYS BEFORE
DIALING BACK DOWN TO THE LOWER 90'S TO FINISH OUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NON-EXISTENT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. BY FRIDAY, AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND,
THE GLOBAL SOLUTIONS DO HINT AT THE CHANCE FOR POPS, MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE I-30 CORRIDOR AND NORTH, AS THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE
SLIDES EAST AND MARGINAL SW FLOW ALOFT RETURNS LOCALLY. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE WPC 7 DAY QPF, WHERE THE HIGHEST TOTALS LOOK TO
BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN ZONES OF THE FA, AND AREAS NORTH INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
KNAPP
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT MON MAY 12 2025
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, VFR IS ALREADY GOING SOUTH IN A A
COUPLE OF LOCALES WITH MANY SEEING LIFR/IFR AROUND DAYBREAK. MVFR
TO VFR LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME MORE
LATE DAY CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF I-49. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDAY AND THEN BACK TO W/SW LATE IN THE DAY. /24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 429 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 79 63 90 72 / 20 0 0 0
MLU 78 62 88 69 / 30 0 0 0
DEQ 79 56 86 64 / 30 0 0 0
TXK 80 60 89 68 / 30 0 0 0
ELD 77 58 87 66 / 30 0 0 0
TYR 81 63 90 72 / 20 0 0 0
GGG 80 60 90 70 / 20 0 0 0
LFK 81 61 93 72 / 20 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...24
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