817
FXUS64 KSHV 270623
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1223 AM CST THU NOV 27 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CST THU NOV 27 2025
- DRY, NEAR-SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THANKSGIVING.
- THE NEXT ROUNDS OF RAIN RETURN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH, SOME LOW-END POTENTIAL EXISTS
(< 20%-30%) FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CST THU NOV 27 2025
ALOFT, A RELATIVELY ACTIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND LONGWAVE TROUGHING THAT WILL SHIFT EAST
OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS LONGWAVE
TROUGH IS CURRENTLY TRANSITING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
QUICKLY MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. IN ITS WAKE, QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW FOR STEERING PERTURBATIONS ACROSS
THE AREA EMBEDDED WITHING A SERIES OF TROUGHS SHIFTING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. COMBINED
WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE AND SOME COLD AIR INFILTRATION, LONG-RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION, MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN. THAT
SAID, GREAT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE ALIGNMENT OF ENOUGH
COLD AIR, MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION, ALL OF WHICH
STILL ONLY ADDS UP TO A 5-10% CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR-NORMAL (MAXIMUMS IN THE 60S,
MINIMUMS IN THE 40S) UNTIL SUNDAY AS THE NEXT AIR MASS IS USHERED
IN WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BRING TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL
INTO THE FIRST DAYS OF DECEMBER (MAXIMUMS IN THE 50S, MINIMUMS IN
THE 20S-30S AT THE COLDEST ON MONDAY NIGHT). /16/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
AN AREA OF SCT-BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 10KFT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AIRSPACE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THESE
CLOUDS WILL SCATTER AFTER DAYBREAK, LENDING TO A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A WIDESPREAD CIRRUS DECK
WITH THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST JUST AFTER THE PERIOD. WINDS
LIGHT UNDER 5KTS OVERNIGHT, BECOMING MORE E/NE THURSDAY AROUND
5KTS.
CK
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 39 60 46 65 / 0 0 50 90
MLU 33 56 41 63 / 0 0 10 70
DEQ 32 55 39 54 / 0 0 80 100
TXK 35 57 44 59 / 0 0 70 100
ELD 31 54 38 57 / 0 0 30 90
TYR 40 60 48 65 / 0 0 80 90
GGG 36 60 45 65 / 0 0 70 90
LFK 38 62 46 70 / 0 0 60 80
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...23
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