519
FXUS64 KSHV 291030
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
530 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES OF ARKLATEX,
WITH THE HAZARDS OF DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL, AND TORNADOES ALL
STILL PRESENT.
- A WET CONCLUSION TO THE WEEK IS IN STORE, WITH RAINFALL
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AREAWIDE, RAISING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING.
- RAIN IS EXPECTED TO END BY EARLY SATURDAY, WITH A QUIET AND
COOLER THAN AVERAGE WEEKEND TO FOLLOW, THEN A WARM-UP INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
FURTHER ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, MODELS STILL SUGGEST SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
AT INTERVALS OVERNIGHT, THUS HAVE RETAINED POPS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
THE COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS
SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW, PROVIDING THE FORCING
MECHANISM FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AS WITH
PREVIOUS DAYS, GIVEN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL REMAINS
FOR STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. STORM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO
AMPLIFY SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS,
WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STORMS PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO
THE EVENING. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. PERIOD
OF TORRENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.
IN THE WAKE OF TOMORROW'S STORMS, AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL REMAIN,
AS PSEUDO-ZONAL FLOW HOLDS IN PLACE ALOFT, WITH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE RETURNS TO FUEL RAINFALL CHANCES THURSDAY, IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT ORGANIZED SYSTEM. A CLOSED LOW OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA
WILL OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH AS IT PUSHES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO AND OVER TEXAS LATE THIS WEEK, DRIVING HIGH CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY AND OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
MAY PRODUCE BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION,
A SIGNAL FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING WHICH WILL BE WATCHED AS THE
WEEK CONTINUES. THE MOST RECENT TIMING MODELS USHER THIS RAINFALL
OUT OF THE ARKLATEX BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY, MIDDAY AT THE LATEST.
PROLONGED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, AND THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL USHER IN AN UNUSUALLY COOL FIRST WEEKEND OF MAY, WITH
HIGHS ONLY AIMING FOR THE 60S AND 70S, AND LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
50S AND EVEN 40S SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM UP TO MORE SEASONABLE HIGHS
IN THE 80S IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK, WITH MOSTLY QUIET
WEATHER CONTINUING UNTIL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER RETURNS TO OUR
NORTHEASTERN ZONES AT THE TAIL END OF THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
/26/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS SOUTH AND
EAST THROUGH OUR AIRSPACE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WIND NOW AT THE TYR/GGG/TXK AND ELD TERMINALS.
NOT SEEING THE IFR CEILINGS AS OF YET LIKE MODEL TIME/HEIGHT CROSS
SECTION SUGGESTS BUT THINK THIS WILL BE JUST A MATTER OF TIME ONCE
WE GET SOME POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP. OTHERWISE, MVFR
CEILINGS ARE WIDESPREAD IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND THOSE MAY
CREEP UP TO LOW VFR HEIGHTS BY MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE CEILINGS
FALL BACK TO MVFR AND/OR IFR HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY.
LIKEWISE, STILL EXPECTING AN UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AS
WE GO THROUGH THE DAY WITH THAT ACTIVITY LINGERING THROUGH THE
EVENING AND PERHAPS THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT WED APR 29 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION.
/26/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 75 61 68 55 / 80 70 60 70
MLU 79 60 72 55 / 80 80 40 60
DEQ 73 53 68 49 / 30 30 30 50
TXK 74 58 69 53 / 50 50 40 60
ELD 74 55 69 51 / 60 60 30 60
TYR 73 62 67 55 / 70 60 70 70
GGG 74 61 68 54 / 80 70 60 70
LFK 83 65 72 58 / 80 70 60 70
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...13
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