336
FXUS64 KSHV 191747
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1247 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
- AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES
WITH HEAT INDICES UP TO 109 WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK
AHEAD. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT, WITH EXTENSIONS
LIKELY.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR OUR NORTH AND
EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ITS
ATTENDANT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND WEST TEXAS
WILL REMAIN PARKED IN PLACE AND VERY MUCH IN PLAY THROUGHOUT THE
COURSE OF THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AND EXCEED THE CENTURY MARK EVERY AFTERNOON
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AHEAD, WITH THE "COOL" SPOTS REACHING THE UPPER
90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S
THROUGHOUT, WITH ONLY OUR NORTHEASTERNMOST ZONES EVEN HAVING A SHOT
AT LOWER 70S. AS OF THIS WRITING, AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS STILL LOOK TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES
JUSTIFYING CONTINUING THE HEAT ADVISORY AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED. ANY
HEAT INDICES OF 110 OR GREATER WILL BE ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED
ENOUGH TO NOT MERIT UPGRADING AT THIS TIME.
THE MOST CONSEQUENTIAL SYNOPTIC SCALE FACTOR IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
DAYS AHEAD WILL BE THE EASTWARD REACH OF OUR PREVAILING HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A SLIGHT RETROGRADE BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, OPENING THE DOOR JUST ENOUGH FOR NORTHWEST FLOW
TO CHANNEL SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OZARKS AND INTO
OUR SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS COUNTIES. HOWEVER, A KEY SOURCE OF
UNCERTAINTY IS THE PRONOUNCED CAPPING PRESENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
IF THE CAP REMAINS SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH, WE MAY SEE LITTLE TO NO
RAINFALL, NEVERMIND STORMS. HOWEVER, IF UPLIFT MANAGES TO BREAK THE
CAP, THE DEVELOPING STORMS LOOK TO EXHIBIT SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR
DOWNBURSTS PRODUCING STRONG, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
TOMORROW'S POTENTIAL STORMS WILL DISSIPATE INTO THE EVENING HOURS,
BEFORE SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TO OUR EASTERN
ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SIMILARLY
CONTINGENT ON THE POSITION OF OUR UPPER LEVEL HIGH. INTO THE WEEKEND
AHEAD, GUIDANCE FAVORS A STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE AND HIGH,
FORMING A BLOCKING PATTERN WHICH WILL SUSTAIN THE HEAT AS ADVERTISED
ABOVE, WHILE SHUTTING DOWN ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
/26/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
FOR THE 19/18Z TAF PERIOD...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL DURING
THE PERIOD, WITH SOME AFTERNOON CU AND PASSING CIRRUS.
THERE COULD BE AN EXCEPTION AT KLFK, WHERE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
SOME LOW CIGS COULD COME IN AROUND DAYBREAK TOMORROW. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN FROM THE SSW BETWEEN 5-10 MPH, WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES. /20/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 80 104 80 103 / 0 0 10 10
MLU 79 102 78 101 / 0 0 20 20
DEQ 75 104 72 103 / 0 20 30 0
TXK 80 103 77 102 / 0 20 30 0
ELD 78 102 76 101 / 0 10 30 0
TYR 79 103 80 104 / 0 0 10 10
GGG 79 105 79 105 / 0 0 10 10
LFK 76 101 77 102 / 0 0 0 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ077.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...20
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