954
FXUS64 KSHV 092248
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
548 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
- A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED BY THE END
OF THIS WEEK, MAKING WAY FOR A TROUGH TO DROP SOUTH WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING AREAWIDE ON FRIDAY.
- UPPER RIDGING WILL EVENTUALLY RETURN ACROSS THE REGION,
LIMITING DAILY CONVECTION TO DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY MAINLY
DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS BY NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD BRING THE
RETURN OF HEAT HEADLINES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EAST TEXAS AND SW ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING.
BUT OVERALL, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING HAS KEPT THINGS MUCH QUIETER THAN
THE PREVIOUS DAYS. TEMPERATURES HAVE RETURN BACK INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S, WITH A FEW TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS LIKELY BEFORE SUNSET
TODAY. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER, THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
STAY VERY ISOLATED IN COVERAGE AND WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. ON TOMORROW, THE RIDGE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSH
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA, BRINGING US SOME RAIN CHANCES. THE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY REMAIN ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-30 CORRIDOR DURING THE DAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS OUR DEEP EAST TEXAS AND ADJACENT
CENTRAL LOUISIANA ZONES, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 84
CORRIDOR, AS WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE GULF PUSH SOME CONVECTION
NORTHWARD INTO THOSE ZONES. WE WILL LIKELY STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S IN MANY LOCATIONS, BUT RAIN AND CLOUD COVER WILL
YIELD SLIGHTLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN SOME OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS. AT THIS TIME, WILL HOLD OFF ON HEAT
HEADLINES, AS MODELS SUGGEST WE WILL BE BORDERLINE ON THE ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY, THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION COULD START
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-30. WE SHOULD SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH THE
RAINFALL, BUT MANY LOCATIONS COULD STILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S.
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND, BUT PROGS SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND EAST
OF A LINE FROM LUFKIN TEXAS TO SHREVEPORT TO EL DORADO ARKANSAS.
UPPER RIDGING RETURNS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
DURING PEAK HEATING, BUT COVERAGE WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED AND
CONFINED TO OUR DEEP EAST TEXAS AND ADJACENT CENTRAL LOUISIANA
ZONES. WITH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED, HEAT HEADLINES COULD RETURN
ACROSS THE REGION. /20/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
MUCH LESS CONVECTION TODAY TO DEAL WITH COMPARED TO THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS SO FEEL LIKE FOR THIS PACKAGE, WE CAN LET THE LATE
ADDITION OF ANY PREVAILING VCTS TO START. OTHERWISE WHAT'S LEFT ON
RADAR SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH
ONLY CIRRUS BLOWOFF REMAINING. DID TEMPO SOME MVFR CEILINGS NEAR
AND ESPECIALLY JUST AFTER SUNRISE AT THE LFK TERMINAL BUT
OTHERWISE, WE SHOULD SEE A GROWING CU FIELD THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MUCH LIKE TODAY, ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE WILL NOT WARRANT A
MENTION IN THIS TAF PACKAGE AT ANY ONE LOCATION FOR THURSDAY BUT
CAN'T RULE IT OUT OF COURSE.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 77 99 76 96 / 20 10 10 30
MLU 75 98 75 96 / 20 10 10 40
DEQ 72 98 70 94 / 10 20 40 50
TXK 76 98 74 95 / 20 10 20 30
ELD 74 98 72 96 / 20 10 10 30
TYR 75 98 75 97 / 20 0 10 20
GGG 74 99 74 98 / 20 0 10 20
LFK 73 96 73 92 / 20 20 10 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...13
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