976
FXUS64 KSHV 251801 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1201 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
- FOLLOWING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON, A PERIOD OF
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, BEFORE ADDITIONAL SOAKING RAINS RETURN FOR THE UPCOMING
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
THE LATE MORNING SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT OUR WEAK COOL FRONT
HAS SHIFTED SE TO ALONG THE SW LA COAST INTO SE LA/CNTRL AND ERN
MS AND WRN TN. THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
THE POST-FRONTAL STRATOCU FIELD HAS BEGUN TO SCATTER OUT OVER MUCH
OF E TX, WITH THE DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MIXING E INTO N
LA THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, THE STRATOCU WITHIN AND ALONG THE
BASE OF THE H925 TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
RED RIVER VALLEY OF SE OK/SW AR SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH A BETTER
PART OF THE DAY TODAY INTO THE EVENING, BEFORE THE CLOSED LOW
DRIFTING ESE INTO THE MIDWEST HELPS TO REINFORCE A STRONGER COLD
FRONT SE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING. THIS SECONDARY FRONT
WILL SCOUR OUT THE STRATOCU CIGS THAT WILL LINGER, WHILE ALSO
USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY
AND IN TIME FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. THUS, TEMPS WILL RETURN
TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE DAILY NORMS, AS STRONG SFC RIDGING
BUILDS SSE FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY. IN FACT, TEMPS
SHOULD FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS SE OK/PORTIONS OF SW
AR THANKSGIVING MORNING, AND SHOULD BRIDGE FARTHER SE INTO NE LA
BY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE CENTER OF THE SFC RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE
MS VALLEY.
THE NW FLOW ALOFT IN WAKE OF THE MIDWEEK LONGWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE
REMAINS PROGGED TO BECOME ZONAL BY FRIDAY, AS WE AWAIT THE NEXT
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL TRAVERSE THE SRN PLAINS
SATURDAY. A SSWRLY LLJ WILL DEVELOP IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE
AND AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OVER THE SRN PLAINS
SATURDAY, WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY RETURNING/DEEPENING
THROUGH THE DAY. ISENTROPIC FORCING SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
FOR AN INCREASE IN ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH ADDITIONAL FORCING ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE
CONTRIBUTING TO RENEWED DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT
HOURS AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PROGGED TO QUICKLY SHIFT
SE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS NEXT FRONT SHOULD HELP TO
USHER IN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SUNDAY AND
INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONGST THE VARIOUS 00Z ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS IN
REGARDS TO THE TIMING OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH EJECTION EARLY NEXT
WEEK (AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD), ALTHOUGH A SLOWER TIMING
WOULD RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SOAKING RAINS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WHILE PROVIDING FOR ADDITIONAL DROUGHT RELIEF. /15/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
FOR THE 25/18Z TAFS, SKIES HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED ACROSS MUCH OF EAST
TEXAS, BUT MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF LOUISIANA,
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS, AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 30. FOR MOST
SITES SOUTH OF I-30, THE LOW CIGS SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER DURING
THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL. NORTH OF I-30, ANOTHER AREA OF MVFR CIGS ARE MOVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA BUT ARE GRADUALLY ERODING. KTXK AND KELD
ARE THE MOST LIKELY TAF SITES TO BE AFFECT AND MVFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WERE KEPT IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER, VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES AFTER 26/00Z. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS, AND SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS AT MOST LOCATIONS AFTER
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
/09/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 72 46 62 36 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 72 48 61 37 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 66 38 57 29 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 68 42 59 34 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 69 42 58 34 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 70 44 60 36 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 70 43 61 34 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 76 48 64 36 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...24
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