967
FXUS64 KSHV 221110
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
610 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
- ASIDE FROM A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-20, QUIET
CONDITIONS WILL RESUME TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
- SLIGHT RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS WEEK,
PARTICULARLY NORTH AND EAST WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS
WILL SIMULTANEOUSLY DROP INTO THE 60S.
- RAINFALL CHANCES RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND, BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
THIS EVENING'S CONVECTION HAS AT LAST DISSIPATED, WITH QUIET AND
MILD CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS LOWS DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S
NORTH TO LOWER 70S SOUTH. SYNOPTIC SCALE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
DEPICT RIDGING REASSERTING ITSELF OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND SETTING UP
SHOP OVER THE ARKLATEX. DESPITE THE IMPLIED SUBSIDENCE OF SUCH A
FEATURE, SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE RESOLVES SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ARKLATEX DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY. GIVEN THE SIMILAR OVERPERFORMANCE THIS
AFTERNOON, ELECTED TO INCREASE POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. COVERAGE OF ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS
WILL MOST LIKELY BE LIMITED AND SHORT-LIVED.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, RIDGING WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE
AND VERY MUCH SHUTS OUT ANY FURTHER RAINFALL CHANCES. WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD, THE ONLY REAL UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT IS
THE EXTENT TO WHICH OUR ADVERTISED COOLING TREND (TO TEMPERATURES
WHICH ARE LESS RIDICULOUSLY ABOVE AVERAGE) ACTUALLY DEVELOPS. OUR
ARKANSAS COUNTIES STILL LOOK TO ENJOY SOME AFTERNOONS OF HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S LATE THIS WEEK, BUT SOUTH AND WEST, THE SO-CALLED
COOLING WILL BE LESS PRONOUNCED. THAT BEING SAID, HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S ARE AT LEAST A STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. LOWS WILL LIKEWISE
TREND DOWNWARD, WITH SITES AREAWIDE WAKING UP TO TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING. WITH DRY AIR FILTERING IN, LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN CONJUNCTION WITH VERY DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS MAY RESULT IN RETURNING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE IN
THE WEEK.
BY THIS WEEKEND, THE RIDGING WILL RECEDE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST,
MAKING ROOM FOR AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO RIDE THE NORTHWEST FLOW
INTO THE ARKLATEX SUNDAY, LINGERING OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOK TO RETURN TO OUR
NORTHEASTERN ZONES SUNDAY, WITH LOWER-END CHANCES BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. A MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGH DIGS
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS, BRINGING HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS NEXT TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MEANWHILE WARM SLIGHTLY, WITH
HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 90S AND LOWS TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
/26/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
FOR THE 22/12Z TAF PERIOD, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD AS A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY ADVANCE SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR AIRSPACE. A CU FIELD WILL
REDEVELOP AS HEATING COMMENCES LATER THIS MORNING IN ADDITION TO
EXPANDING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION WITH DAYTIME HEATING LATER ON TODAY BEFORE THE FRONT
EVENTUALLY CLEARS THE REGION. THEREFORE, OPTED TO MENTION VCTS
ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AT A FEW SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
TREND MORE N/NE WITH FROPA, AVERAGING BETWEEN 5-10 KTS.
/19/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 97 73 94 69 / 20 0 0 0
MLU 97 71 94 67 / 30 10 0 0
DEQ 93 66 91 62 / 10 0 0 0
TXK 95 70 91 66 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 96 68 92 63 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 96 73 95 70 / 30 0 0 0
GGG 98 70 96 67 / 20 0 0 0
LFK 96 74 95 72 / 30 10 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...19
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