429
FXUS64 KSHV 241132
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
632 AM CDT MON SEP 24 2018
AVIATION
AREAS OF FOG THIS MRNG ALONG AND NORTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
FROM NEAR KTYR TO KTXK TERMINALS WITH VSBYS BELOW 1/2SM AT TIMES
UNTIL AT LEAST 24/13Z AND IFR CIGS UNTIL 24/14-15Z. SOUTH OF
BOUNDARY ONLY PATCHY FOG AND OCNL MVFR/IFR CIGS. BECMG VFR
AREAWIDE BY 24/16-17Z AS MOST CIGS BECMG SCATTERED AS THEY LIFT.
SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTN AT MAINLY THE KMLU AND KELD
TERMINALS WITH ISOLD TO NONE FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE REGION.
LGT WINDS BECMG S-SW 5 TO 10 KTS THIS AFTN. AREAS OF FOG MAY
DEVELOP AFTER 25/06Z AS LGT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WITH DAMP GROUND
FROM PREVIOUS WKND RAINFALLS./07/.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 508 AM CDT MON SEP 24 2018/
SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
UPPER LOW, WHICH BROUGHT HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION FOR THE PAST
WKND HAS MOVED TO THE NE. PPERSISTENT SFC FRONT ACROSS NRN
PORTIONS OF AREA WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT NWD. AREAS OF FOG HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT, ALONG WITH
SCATTERED LOW TOPPED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SAME REGION. HOWEVER, A
WEAK SFC LOW OVER EAST TX WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
PRODUCE MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA, AND
SHOWER MAY PERSIST NEAR NORTHWARD MOVG FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO AFTN
ACROSS SE OK AND PORTIONS SW AR, WHILE DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO
FILTER INTO EAST TX. HAVE NUDGED DAYTIME HIGHS UP INTO MID TO
UPPER 80S TO ACCOUNT FOR REDUCED SKY COVER AND S-SW WINDS. PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT BUT WILL BE MORE RADIATION
COOLING WITH DAMP GROUND RATHER THAN BOUNDARY RELATED AS IS THE
CASE NOW. FAIRLY SIMILAR ON TUESDAY WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90, AND DIURNAL WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN CWA AGAIN./07/.
LONG TERM.../TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AN UNSETTLED AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO AT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THERE
WILL BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE RAINFALL WITH SOME OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIODS HAVING THE LEAST ACTIVITY WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS
THE CONUS AND RESULTING IN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL
HELP PROVIDE RICH PLUME OF MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL BE
OVER THE MORE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION FOR THE START
PF THE LONG TERM IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTED SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT
FROM THIS PAST WEEKEND. DISTURBANCES MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT DURING MID
WEEK TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FRONT WILL ENTER THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND WILL STALL ALONG THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST AND
ACROSS SOUTH LOUISIANA BY THURSDAY. WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OF LOW
PRESSURE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO HELP PROVIDE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE
MORE SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH. WE MAY SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF NO PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS PROVIDE
DRY AIR ALONG WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
E HE ON MAY CAN BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL BE RETURNING BY
FRIDAY AS THE WESTERN END OF THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTHEAST AS A
WARM FRONT INTO THE WEEKEND. OUR AREA WILL BE IN A SHEAR AXIS ALOFT
BETWEEN THE BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND
A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND THE
NORTHEAST GULF. THE RIDGE BUILDS WEST ACROSS THE WESTERNS GULF
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL CONTINUE TO HELP WITH MAINLY DAYTIME
AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR THE LATE WEEK AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL. /06/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 86 72 89 71 / 30 20 20 20
MLU 87 73 89 72 / 50 30 40 40
DEQ 84 67 86 68 / 30 20 20 20
TXK 84 69 87 69 / 30 20 20 20
ELD 85 71 88 70 / 40 30 30 30
TYR 84 72 88 71 / 30 10 20 30
GGG 84 72 89 71 / 20 10 20 20
LFK 87 73 90 72 / 30 10 20 40
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
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