459
FXUS64 KSHV 192343
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
643 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
- RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO PERCENT THROUGH THE NEXT 7
DAYS.
- AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS WILL BOOST AND MAINTAIN
ALREADY ELEVATED WILDFIRE DEVELOPMENT RISKS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
SURFACE RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE TO START THE WORKWEEK, AND
FORECAST TRENDS ARE FOR RIDGING TO REMAIN AS THE PREDOMINANT
WEATHER INFLUENCE ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION. THIS SYNOPTIC
SETUP WILL SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE 7-DAY FORECAST
PERIOD (NEAR 0% ALL WEEK) AND KEEP TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS/MINIMUMS
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL (MAXIMUMS/MINIMUMS IN THE LOWER
80S/LOWER 50S, RESPECTIVELY). COMBINED WITH DRY ANTECEDENT SOILS
AND AN EXPANSION OF SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS BEING
MAINTAINED, FIRE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE A TOP FORECAST
CONCERN/IMPACT, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-20. LONG-RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE RIDGING WILL VERY GRADUALLY EVOLVE
IN SHAPE AND SPEED, DEVELOPING AN AXIS ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. IN THE PROCESS, THE DRY
AIRMASS WILL REINFORCE LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS OR CALM WINDS THROUGH
THE WEEK (A WELCOME REPRIEVE FROM MORE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS). EXTENDED OUTLOOKS CONTINUE TO PAINT A DRY OUTLOOK FOR
THE REST OF OCTOBER WITH SIGNALS FOR RIDGING AND DRY WEATHER TO
PERSIST LATER INTO NEXT WEEK. /16/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, VFR CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS
OUR E/SE WINDS LATE TODAY SLACK TO 5KT OR/< FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND
BACK A BIT TO E/NE5-10KT FOR TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS GRIPPING
US TIGHT WITH LOW RH AND NO RAINFALL FOR THE NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER
HIGH BUILDS IN OVERHEAD AND BRINGS SINKING AIR TO THE DROUGHT'S
EFFORT KEEPING THIS PATTERN THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND THIS
WEEKEND, WITH OUR NEXT FROPA FINALLY BRINGING DOWN THE UPPER
RIDGE WITH SOME NEEDED CONVECTION DURING TUESDAY/NIGHT NEXT WEEK.
/24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK IN THE
EVENT OF WILDFIRE DEVELOPMENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 52 79 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 49 79 49 84 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 46 81 48 84 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 49 79 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 46 80 47 84 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 53 79 53 81 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 49 78 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 52 80 53 83 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...24
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page