786
FXUS64 KSHV 181131
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
531 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.
- THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
THE EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE BASE OF SHARP
LONGWAVE TROUGHING DIGGING SE THROUGH THE TX HILL COUNTRY INTO SE
TX, WITH THE MID LEVEL CIGS NOTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE SABINE VALLEY NE INTO NE LA AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM W TO E THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MEANWHILE, THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK SFC
TROUGH BISECTING THE REGION, EXTENDING FROM CNTRL AND SW AR INTO
NE TX JUST N OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THIS IS MOST INDICATIVE BY THE
WIND SHIFT IN THE LATEST SFC OBS, AS WELL AS A SEMI-SHARP DIVISION
OF MUCH DRIER (SINGLE DIGIT) DEWPOINTS NOTED TO THE NW OF THE SFC
TROUGH OVER N AND EXTREME NE TX, SE OK, AND WRN AR. THE LATEST
HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS BNDRY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE
OVERNIGHT, EXITING THE REGION TO THE SE BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
HOWEVER, THESE SINGLE DIGIT DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALSO EVENTUALLY MIX
SE ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY AS SFC RIDGING
BUILDS S INTO THE WRN GULF FROM WCNTRL TX. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS BNDRY MAY ALSO HELP TO KEEP THE AIR MIXED ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO
KEEP TEMPS FROM PLUNGING QUICKLY, ALTHOUGH ANY REDUCED WIND AND
THE CLEARING SKY IN PLACE WILL HELP CONTRIBUTE IN TEMPS FALLING
QUICKLY.
WSW BNDRY LYR WINDS WILL RETURN ATOP THE SFC RIDGE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES INTO THE NW GULF, WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
MODIFYING BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE
REGION DESPITE THE INCREASED INSOLATION EXPECTED. WHILE DEWPOINTS
SHOULD BEGIN TO RECOVER SUNDAY NIGHT, GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
EXPECTED AS WINDS DECOUPLE BY EARLY EVENING, RESULTING IN ANOTHER
NIGHT OF SUBFREEZING TEMPS AREAWIDE. ADDITIONAL SFC RIDGING
REMAINS PROGGED TO BUILD S INTO THE RED RIVER AND LOWER MS VALLIES
MONDAY, WHICH WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE VERY COOL (BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS) BUT VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE N OF I-20, AND AREAWIDE
TUESDAY AS THE PERSISTENT CNTRL AND ERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH
RELOADS WITH THE NEXT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY SET TO TRAVERSE
THE OZARKS INTO THE MID MS/OH VALLIES.
SOME SLIGHT CHANGES HAVE BEEN NOTED IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
AMONGST THE VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE PROGS BY MIDWEEK, SPECIFICALLY
MAINTAINING BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDWEEK. RATHER THAN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF THE DIGGING TROUGH, THE LAST COUPLE OF DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE RUNS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALONG THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE AS IT EXITS THE SRN ROCKIES,
TAPPING AMPLE PACIFIC MOISTURE. A DEVELOPING SSWRLY LLJ WILL HELP
INDUCE ISENTROPIC FORCING FROM THE TX HILL COUNTRY INTO N AND E TX
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASING
THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THUS, SHRA SHOULD
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE DAY, PROVIDING WETTING RAINFALL TO
MOST LOCALES (EXCEPT FOR AREAS NW OF I-30) THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM W TO E. TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY
MODERATE BY LATE WEEK ESPECIALLY AS A SSWRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
REDEVELOPS OVER THE REGION, YIELDING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
DEWPOINTS AS WELL. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT BY THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
15
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 512 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT
THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS TO BECOME WEST AND INCREASE TO 5 TO
10 KNOTS TODAY, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 19/00Z. /05/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST SAT JAN 17 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 52 28 55 29 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 46 27 51 27 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 48 23 46 18 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 49 27 49 24 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 46 23 47 21 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 55 30 55 31 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 53 28 55 29 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 55 29 61 32 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...05
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