266
FXUS64 KSHV 080558
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1258 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BACK IN THE FORECAST
TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WITH THE AID OF RETURNING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR SOME AREAS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING.
- AT THIS TIME, MUCH OF NEXT WEEKS APPEARS TO BE DRY WITH A
WARMUP COMMENCING BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
MID TO HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN PLENTIFUL ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA EARLY
THIS MORNING BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN RETURNING IN
EARNEST NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ISENTROPIC FORCING COMBINED
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL ASCENT IN RATHER BENIGN WEST TO EAST UPPER
FLOW TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTION TODAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR. NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT ANY SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY BUT THAT COULD CHANGE
OVERNIGHT AS A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WITH THE
AID OF A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE MID MISS VALLEY. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY SOME CAM OUTPUT ALONG WITH THE LATEST HREF RUN BUT
JUST HOW STRONG TO SEVERE THIS CONVECTION WILL BE AS IT MOVES INTO
THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE FRIDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT IS
ANYONE'S GUESS, NOT TO MENTION THE DEGREE OF STORM COVERAGE.
PER CONVERSATIONS WITH SPC, THE NEW CONVECTIVE DAY ONE OUTLOOK
WILL LIKELY CONTAIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES FOR
THE FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.
SATURDAY'S FORECAST IS COMPLICATED BY THE REMNANTS OF THE ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND ANY CONVECTIVELY INDUCED BOUNDARY WE WILL
BE DEALING WITH AFTER DAYBREAK, NOT TO MENTION A FILLING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OUR WAY FROM THE TX HILL COUNTRY THAT WILL GET
ABSORBED INTO THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH. THERE IS VERY LITTLE
AGREEMENT WITH CAM/DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT SO HAVE DECIDED TO
ADVERTISE SAT/SAT NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. FOR SUNDAY, WE
WILL BE DEALING WITH YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
OUR WAY IN THE PARENT UPSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING AT LEAST OUR NORTHERN
HALF DURING THE DAY WITH THE REMAINDER OF OUR REGION SEEING
INCREASING STORM COVERAGE LATE IN THE DAY/OVERNIGHT BEFORE A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ALL THIS CONVECTION SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR REGION
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND, UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE COUNTRY AND INTO THE TEXAS HILL
COUNTRY WITH BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE
OHIO/TENN VALLEYS. THE UPSTREAM RIDGING WILL LIKELY AMPLIFY INTO
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY MID TO LATE WEEK. ALL THIS TO SAY WE
LOOK DRY MOST IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND
COMMENCING BY MIDWEEK.
13
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
FOR THE 08/06Z TAFS, MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL CONTINUE
OVERSPREADING ARKLATEX AIRSPACE THROUGH THE NIGHT. BETWEEN 08/09Z
AND 08/12Z, FURTHER LOWERING OF DECKS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTH, AS
CIGS DETERIORATE TO LOWER MVFR AND IFR LEVELS. WHERE DECKS DROP BY
DAYBREAK, ANY RECOVERY WILL BE LIMITED AND GRADUAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN
TO RETURN TO THE I-30 CORRIDOR DURING THE MORNING, MOST LIKELY
IMPACTING KTXK BEFORE POTENTIALLY SPREADING FURTHER SOUTH. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY
TOMORROW AT SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WITH LIMITED GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF STORMS.
/26/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY
TODAY BUT ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION. THEREFORE, SPOTTER
ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 77 63 82 64 / 40 40 40 20
MLU 77 63 82 64 / 30 50 40 20
DEQ 78 55 83 59 / 0 30 20 20
TXK 79 60 84 64 / 10 40 30 10
ELD 77 58 82 61 / 10 40 40 20
TYR 77 63 82 65 / 40 40 40 20
GGG 77 63 82 64 / 40 40 50 20
LFK 76 65 82 66 / 70 70 60 30
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...26
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