243
FXUS64 KSHV 150219
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
919 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2022
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 909 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2022
STABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES,
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. LOWER DEWPOINTS NORTH OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS THE OUACHITAS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON
TRACK. NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME. /05/
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2022
A COMPACT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NOW MOVING INLAND OVER EXTREME SOUTH
TX IS BRINGING AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE RIO GRANDE SOME LOCALLY
SIGNIFICANT RAINS TODAY, BUT IN THE FOUR STATE REGION THE INCREASE
MOIST LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM IS
REALLY JUST RESULTING IN SCATTERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY JUST DEEP EAST TEXAS (I.E., SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM TYLER TX TO NATCHITOCHES LA). EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
DWINDLE QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH OTHERWISE QUIET, HOT, AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY PEAK IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN MAX HEAT
INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM 100 TO 106 DEGREES. TONIGHT'S LOWS WILL
BE IN THE MUGGY MID 70S IN A MAJORITY OF AREA.
TOMORROW OUR REGION'S WEATHER WILL MAINLY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE VAST UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
THE PERTURBED "NORTHWEST FLOW" PATTERN ON THE FAR EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL BE TO OUR NORTHEAST/EAST AND WILL
INCREASE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GENERALLY AWAY FROM OUR
AREA, ALTHOUGH SOME VERY ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE ARKLAMISS. THE BIGGEST STORY
TOMORROW WILL BE THE HEAT WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING FROM THE
UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S AND RESULTING IN MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE 103 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE. THE WORST OF THE
OPPRESSIVE HEAT WILL BE IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES WHERE A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM NOON THROUGH 7 PM CDT TOMORROW.
LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE IN THE VERY WARM MID TO UPPER 70S.
/50/
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2022
THE MAIN STORY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BE AGAIN
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THAT SAID, WE WILL STILL HAVE TO GET THROUGH
OPPRESSIVE HEAT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO ARRIVE AT THE PROMISED
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES.
OVER THE COURSE OF TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE HEAT DOME CENTERED
TO OUR WEST WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FOCUSED AND AMPLIFIED TO
OUR WEST, WHICH WILL, IN TURN, ALLOW THE PERTURBED "NORTHWEST
FLOW" PORTION EAST OF THE RIDGE TO SAG BACK INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. THIS SYNOPTIC TRANSITION WILL EVENTUALLY
RESULT IN A PATTERN CHANGE, BUT THERMAL CAPPING AND THE LAGGING OF
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ADVANCING SLOWLY FROM THE NORTH WILL
PROLONG THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT FOR OUR REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS BOTH DAYS GENERALLY AROUND THE CENTURY
MARK WITH HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY IN SOME AREAS. BUT
FINALLY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD
PROVIDE A TRIGGER TO ERUPT VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
NORTHERN ZONES AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MIGRATE SOUTH INTO THE
HEART OF THE REGION IN THE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SOME WEAK SHEAR IN THE PATTERN, COMBINED WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY
AND ENHANCED DOWNDRAFT CAPE, COULD YIELD POCKETS OF SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20.
THE INCOMING FRONT WILL LIKELY BE IN A POSITION TO TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME AGAIN VIGOROUS, ON
THURSDAY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. CHANCES OF RAIN FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATTER THURSDAY WILL BE HIGHEST OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF ZONES WHERE THE POTENTIAL TO RECEIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH WILL ALSO BE A GOOD DEAL HIGHER IN COMPARISON
TO LOCATIONS ACROSS MORE PARCHED AREAS OF EAST TX. THIS FRONT WILL
AT LEAST BRING HEAT DOWN TO A FEW NOTCHES TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS FOR MID AUGUST AND, FORTUNATELY, THIS EBBING OF HEAT
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL
LIKELY BACK OFF SOME FRIDAY BEFORE THE FRONT HANGING UP IN THE
VICINITY POTENTIALLY GETS ACTIVATED AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING (AND A PATH FOR DISTURBANCES) REMAINS PLACE. /50/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2022
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD ENDING
15/18Z. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS LFK FROM 15/12Z-15/16Z. OTHERWISE,
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT TO BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS ON MONDAY. /05/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 77 100 78 101 / 0 10 0 10
MLU 76 99 76 99 / 0 10 10 20
DEQ 72 102 73 102 / 0 10 10 20
TXK 77 101 77 101 / 0 10 10 10
ELD 73 97 74 97 / 0 10 10 10
TYR 77 102 78 102 / 0 0 0 10
GGG 76 101 76 101 / 0 0 0 10
LFK 74 100 74 102 / 10 0 0 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ARZ050-051-
059>061-070>073.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LAZ001>006-
010>014-017>022.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR OKZ077.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ096-097-109-
111-112-126-138-151>153-165>167.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...05
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