600
FXUS64 KSHV 271845
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1245 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1046 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
- THE WEEKEND WILL FINISH ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70'S AND LOW 80'S AHEAD OF A PATTERN SHIFT TO START THE NEW
WEEK.
- A ROBUST COLD FRONT WILL SLICE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
INTRODUCING RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
- SEASONABLY COOL HIGHS IN THE 40'S WILL SETTLE BEHIND THE FRONT,
AS OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES REBOUND BY THE START OF
THE NEW YEAR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1046 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
OVERCAST AND AROUND 3-5 DEG F COOLER WHEN COMPARED TO THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. REGARDLESS, TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION WITH MANY COMMUNITIES SITTING IN THE LOW AND MID 70'S.
GIVEN THE CLOUDS IN PLACE, AND CONSIDERING THEY ARE HANGING
AROUND A TOUCH LONGER VERSUS YESTERDAY, HIGHS SHOULD ONLY TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER 70'S TO NEAR 80 AS WE APPROACH THE PEAK HEATING HOURS
OF THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT, LITTLE TO NO CHANGE FROM LAST NIGHT
AS LOWS WILL AGAIN SETTLE IN THE LOW AND MIDDLE 60'S.
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE INFLUENCE
OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DIVING CLIPPER LOW OUT OF
ALBERTA THAT WILL SWING THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA SUNDAY. PREFONTAL MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH
TO ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO LINE THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH,
WITH JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO. THAT BEING SAID, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.
BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE
START OF THE NEW WEEK AS HIGHS ON MONDAY ONLY CLIMB INTO THE 40'S
TO NEAR 50 DEG F. AT THE SAME TIME, BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO FEEL A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, THE INFLUENCE OF THE ADVECTING
AIRMASS WILL BE FELT AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING FOR JUST
ABOUT EVERYONE, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 20'S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SE OKLAHOMA AND SW ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY
AS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50'S AND LOW 60'S WILL BRING US TO THE EVE
OF THE NEW YEAR, WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 60'S BY THE FIRST OF THE
YEAR. ONE POINT TO MAKE IN ALL OF THIS IS THAT OUTSIDE OF THE
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING BOUNDARY TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
THE MAJORITY OF THE 7 PERIOD IS DRY. THAT BEING SAID, LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE IN THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 8-14 OUTLOOK SUGGESTS
THAT WE WILL BE LEANING ABOVE NORMAL IN THE PRECIP CATEGORY, WHILE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO HOLD ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK
OF JANUARY.
53
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, MVFR FOR ALL FROM OVC010-020 AND MAY
VARY BKN 2.4-5KFT VFR 18-24Z, BUT LESS WIND ABOVE CLOUDS. AT ANY
RATE, THIS REPEATING DAYBREAK PATTERN APPEARS TO HAPPEN EVERY
OTHER DAY UNDER THE RIDGE, NOW FLEXING AN AXIS BACK ALONG I-49.
THIS INVERSION HAS LOWERED TO 2.4KFT AND HEATING IS CLIMBING
TOWARD THAT MARK. SW WINDS 10KTS NOT SEEING ANY GUSTS YET, AND
ONLY RUN TO 15KT AT THE INVERSION. IFR/MVFR AGAIN BY 09Z WITH
SHOWERS LATE AFTN KEEPING CIGS MVFR ALL DAY. FROPA 29/00-05Z
DRIVING OUT CONVECTION WITH LOADS OF WIND NW15-25G35KT. /24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 67 80 39 49 / 0 10 50 0
MLU 65 79 39 48 / 0 10 70 0
DEQ 62 74 28 42 / 0 40 20 0
TXK 66 77 34 46 / 0 30 40 0
ELD 62 76 32 45 / 0 10 60 0
TYR 66 78 35 47 / 0 20 30 0
GGG 64 79 35 48 / 0 20 40 0
LFK 65 80 38 50 / 0 10 50 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...24
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