622
FXUS64 KSHV 190928
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
428 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2025
IT'S A LITTLE QUIETER THIS MORNING THAN WHAT WAS ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME 24HRS AGO, AS OUR WEAK SFC FRONT HAS BECOME STATIONARY A
BIT FARTHER N THAN WHAT WAS PROGGED, WITH THE ATTENDANT H925-850
TROUGH ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM CNTRL/ERN OK ACROSS
WRN AND NCNTRL AR. THETA-E RIDGING ALONG THIS BNDRY ACCOMPANIED BY
WEAK FORCING ALOFT ALONG A NW TO SE ORIENTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH HAS
RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG AND
JUST N OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR, WITH THE HREF INITIALIZING WELL AND
SUGGESTING THE CONVECTION GRADUALLY SINKING SSE POSSIBLY INTO
EXTEME SE OK AND SW AR LATER THIS MORNING. HAVE TAILORED POPS TO
LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THESE AREAS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON OVER DEEP E TX/MUCH OF N LA IN
AN AREA OF HIGHER PW'S INDICATIVE OF 1.5-1.7 INCHES. DID MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE ERN ZONES THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS
SOME GUIDANCE DID MAINTAIN ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THESE AREAS IN
VC OF THE DEPARTING/WEAKENING TROUGH AXIS, ALTHOUGH ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD QUICKLY WANE WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING.
OTHERWISE, HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE THE NORM THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD, AND FOR THE EXTENDED FOR THAT MATTER, AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE SRN PLAINS TODAY BEGINS TO EXPAND E INTO
THE MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY FRIDAY. THUS, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE, AND HAVE TAILORED MAX TEMPS
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE NBM IN THE SHORT-TERM, BASED ON
WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. ATTM, HEAT
INDICES SHOULD AGAIN RANGE FROM 100-105 DEGREES TODAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS
THE REGION BASED ON THE EXTENT OF WEAK MIXING OF DEWPOINTS, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LOCALES POSSIBLY SEEING BRIEFLY HIGHER
HEAT INDICES. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS REMAIN TOO MARGINAL FOR AN
ADVISORY AS OF NOW. SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE MIN TEMPS RUNNING
A BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL, WITH TEMPS ONLY COOLING INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 70S. VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION ALSO CAN'T BE RULED OUT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE SRN AND ERN ZONES IN VC OF WHAT'S LEFT
OF THE WEAKNESS ALOFT THAT WILL SLIP SE TONIGHT, AND THUS HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE AREAS ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ATTM AS THE EARLY MORNING PROGS HAVE TRENDED DRIER.
15
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2025
THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER REMAINS PROGGED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY
SHIFTING E INTO THE OH/TN VALLIES AND THE SE CONUS SATURDAY BEFORE
EXPANDING FARTHER NE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH EARLY
INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. THUS, STRONG SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE RIDGE
AND STRONG INSOLATION WILL RESULT IN TEMPS POSSIBLY CLIMBING A BIT
HIGHER THIS WEEKEND, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MID 90S AND EVEN SOME
UPPER 90S POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF SW AR/N LA. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS REGIME SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH AN EWD
SHIFT IN THE RIDGE LATE THIS WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL RESULT IN A DEEPENING SE MEAN FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE,
RESULTING IN THE SUMMERTIME SEABREEZE ADVANCING FARTHER INLAND
WITH EACH PASSING DAY. DID MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FROM THE SAM RAYBURN/LOWER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY INTO
CNTRL LA, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SEABREEZE SPREADING FARTHER N
MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG/S OF I-20. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
MORE ACTIVE DAILY SEABREEZE BY MONDAY, AND THE EWD SHIFT OF THE
RIDGE, MAX TEMPS MAY TAPER BACK A DEGREE OR TWO, BUT STILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. IT
REMAINS TO BE SEEN THOUGH WHETHER THE RIDGE MAY EXPAND BACK W OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY MIDWEEK, RESULTING IN A MORE ERLY FLOW AND
LIMITING THE INLAND IMPACT OF THE DAILY SEABREEZE. BUT IN ANY
EITHER CASE, THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAKNESSES ALOFT WITHIN THE
POTENTIALLY DIRTY RIDGING REGIME SHOULD STILL TAP THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF THE REGION FOR MID
AND LATE WEEK.
15
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2025
FOR THE 19/06Z TAF UPDATE, MVFR/IFR VIS/CIGS WILL QUICKLY RETURN
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS, CONTINUING UNTIL 19/15Z BEFORE A CHANCE OF
SCATTERED VCTS PASSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN TERMINALS AFTER
19/14Z AND 19/21Z-20-02Z. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL SLACKEN TO
CALM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. /16/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 428 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 95 77 97 77 / 10 10 10 0
MLU 94 76 95 76 / 20 20 20 0
DEQ 91 72 93 73 / 30 10 0 0
TXK 94 75 97 77 / 20 10 10 0
ELD 93 73 94 74 / 30 20 20 0
TYR 93 76 94 76 / 10 0 0 0
GGG 93 75 94 76 / 10 0 10 0
LFK 94 75 94 74 / 20 10 20 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...16
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