732
FXUS64 KSHV 281823
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
123 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
- FIRE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN
THROUGH TUESDAY AS HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST.
- A PATTERN CHANGE WITH A TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE INFLUENCE
WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING AS EARLY
AS WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- PERSISTENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS COULD MAKE FOR A THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING LATER THIS WEEK BEFORE SOILS ARE ABLE TO ABSORB THE
MOISTURE AS RAIN ACCUMULATES OVER SEVERAL DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS A POSITIVELY
TILTED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS BIG BEND
AREA THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO THE
MIDWEST AND THROUGH THE HEART OF THE GREAT LAKES. DOWNSTREAM FROM
THIS FEATURE EXISTS A CLOSED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST US WITH TROUGH INFLUENCE EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST,
WHILE UPSTREAM FROM THE RIDGE EXISTS ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ACROSS
SOUTHERN CA, WITH HURRICANE POLO TO THE SOUTH NEAR THE COAST OF
BAJA, THE TWO OF WHICH WILL MAKE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE NEXT WEEK. NEAR THE SURFACE, A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS THE RED RIVER OF TX/OK INTO CENTRAL LA AND
ALONG THE GULF COAST, WITH EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE ON ITS NORTH
SIDE ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION, A
GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER DAY WILL CONTINUE. NEAR THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, A DEWPOINT AND PW GRADIENT IS EVIDENT AND
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN TANDEM WITH DAYTIME HEATING IS
LIKELY TO SPARK ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNSET
ON THE MOIST SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY, GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A
LINE FROM MOUNT PLEASANT TO NACOGDOCHES. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS COULD BRIEFLY ACCOMPANY
THUNDERSTORMS.
ON TUESDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE OVER THE LOCAL AREA, PROVIDING
BETTER SUBSIDENCE. THIS WILL HELP LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY DESPITE THE LINGERING PRESENCE OF THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TICK UP A DEGREE OR
TWO WITH AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. FIRE WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN MONDAY AND TUESDAY GIVEN PERSISTENT
DRY CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES.
THE WEATHER FORECAST GETS MORE INTERESTING BY MID-WEEK. BEFORE
DISCUSSING THIS, ON TUESDAY THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE POLO WILL
BECOME ABSORBED BY THE PROGRESSING AREA OF CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
EMERGING OUT OF SOUTHERN CA. THIS WILL BRING A SURGE OF TROPICAL
PACIFIC MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE DESERT SW AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS AREA OF CLOSED LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED SOMEWHERE AROUND THE STATE OF NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY,
INDUCING SFC CYCLOGENESIS ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. AS THESE MECHANISMS WORK TO CREATE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WITH THE AID OF TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE, THE
HEAVIEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE FOUR STATE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY, WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EAST TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS INCREASING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE GULF MOVES NORTHWARD ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST.
THE MAIN QUESTION THEREAFTER WILL BE THE EVENTUAL ARRIVAL OF THE
WIDESPREAD RAIN AS SW FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE CLOSED
LOW GRADUALLY DAMPENS AND BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH AT SOME
POINT ON THURSDAY AS IT TRAVELS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
MIGRATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS LIKELY TO
SLOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH WHICH THE RAIN IS ACCOMPANYING,
LIKELY ONLY MAKING IT INTO SE OK AND NE TX BY DAY'S END WITH
SPOTTY SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE TX/LA BORDER AND INTO SW AR.
BY FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE TROUBLE REMAINING
ORGANIZED AND THIS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW REFLECTIONS. WHILE THE RESULT WILL STILL BE
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY, OVERALL AMOUNTS ARE BEGINNING
TO LOOK A BIT LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS WERE
IMPLYING. WHILE MORE RAIN WOULD BE NEEDED TO HELP ALLEVIATE
DROUGHT CONCERNS, THE GOOD NEWS IN THIS REALM IS THAT THE SLOW
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH
LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING POINT TO AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHERE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. ANOTHER POINT OF UNCERTAINTY
AT THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE
TROPICAL MOISTURE OR A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING NW FROM THE GULF TO
ENHANCE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND SHOULD IT INTERACT WITH
THE FRONT. NOT SEEING ENOUGH CONSISTENCY IN THE GUIDANCE TO TREND
A FORECAST TOWARDS THIS EVOLUTION BUT IT IS DEFINITELY WORTH
KEEPING AN EYE ON. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE 80S. A FLASH FLOODING THREAT MAY INITIALLY
MATERIALIZE WITH THE ONSET OF ANY HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEFORE SOILS ARE ABLE TO ABSORB THE MOISTURE. GIVEN THE
CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS, DO THINK THAT THIS THREAT WILL LESSEN
THOUGH THE WEEKEND AS SOILS BECOME MORE SATURATED.
KOVACIK
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
FOR THE 28/18Z TAF PERIOD...SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING SOME
OVERCAST SKIES STARTING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH ANOTHER BAND MOVING ACROSS THE DFW
METROPLEX. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA, WE ARE SEEING FEW TO
SCT AROUND 8-10K FEET. RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A FEW RETURNS OF
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS JUST WEST OF KTYR. THE
TREND WITH THESE HAS GENERALLY BEEN SOUTH SOUTHEAST, SO I AM NOT
ANTICIPATING ANYTHING FOR KTYR, KGGG, OR KLFK, ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT A
ZERO PERCENT CHANCE. SO I HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST SOME VCTS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THOSE THREE TERMINALS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THIS TAF
PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME WHERE SOME MINOR MVFR
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP FOR KLFK. ASIDE FROM THAT, WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND UNDER 10 KTS THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD. /33/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 68 93 71 94 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 63 92 66 93 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 63 93 67 93 / 0 0 0 30
TXK 66 92 70 93 / 0 0 0 10
ELD 61 92 66 93 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 70 93 73 93 / 10 0 0 40
GGG 67 95 70 95 / 10 0 0 10
LFK 68 92 72 91 / 0 0 0 30
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...33
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