745
FXUS64 KSHV 161810
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
110 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
...NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
- AN AREAWIDE RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 AM TONIGHT.
NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA PARISHES WILL BE INCLUDED IN A RED
FLAG WARNING TOMORROW FOR CONTINUED VERY LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY
WINDS.
- COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A STEADY WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH DRY WEATHER
THROUGHOUT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT, AREA DEW POINTS ARE PLUMMETING INTO
THE 30S AND 40S AS A VERY DRY AIRMASS POURS INTO THE ARKLATEX. NORTH
WINDS ARE REACHING GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KTS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
BEFORE WINDS TREND DOWNWARD AND HUMIDITY VALUES INCREASE TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH THAT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
NOT EXPECTED UNLESS IN VERY ISOLATED SHELTERED POCKETS.
DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN LOW TOMORROW, BRINGING MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES BACK INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE. HOWEVER,
WINDS WILL NOT BE AS ELEVATED AS TODAY, ACHIEVING SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 15 KTS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS OF UP TO 30 KTS
POSSIBLE, THE HIGHEST SPEEDS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA. GIVEN THESE FACTORS, HAVE ELECTED TO
ISSUE A NEW RED FLAG WARNING FOR OUR NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
PARISHES FROM 7 AM THROUGH 9 PM TOMORROW, WITH ALL OTHER COUNTIES
AND PARISHES INCLUDED IN A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.
THE ARKLATEX WILL WAKE UP TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TOMORROW
MORNING, RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL WHILE COOL AIR
ADVECTION KEEPS AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO JUST BARELY
BREAKING 70 DEGREES AT OUR WARMEST SITES TOMORROW. SUNDAY MORNING
LOOKS TO BE THE CHILLIEST OF THIS FORECAST, AS LOWS FALL INTO THE
40S AREAWIDE WITH EVEN A FEW UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ALL AREA SITES SHOULD BE TAKING AIM
AT THE 70S ONCE AGAIN AS RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ALOFT OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS.
REBUILDING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWED BY AMPLIFYING RIDGING FROM
EAST TEXAS OVER THE OUACHITAS AND OZARKS WILL RESULT IN A RAPID
WARMING TREND GOING INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH UPPER 70S AND AND LOWER 80S
MAKING A WIDESPREAD RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AND MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S AND EVEN SOME SITES REACHING 90 AGAIN BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
THE CONTINUING PROXIMITY OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE WILL INHIBIT ANY ACTIVE WEATHER, WITH DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TO THE END OF THIS EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD.
/26/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
FOR THE 16/18Z TAF PERIOD, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
RETURN TO OUR AIRSPACE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING
MVFR AND LOW VFR STRATOCU CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PARTS OF DEEP
EAST TX AND NORTH LA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT, EXPECT MOSTLY SKC BY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH
JUST SOME PASSING CIRRUS SHIFTING OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST. OTHERWISE,
STRONG AND GUSTY N/NW WINDS WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-20 KTS AND HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 25-30 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DROP SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN
BREEZY BETWEEN 10-15 KTS ON AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.
/19/
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, VERY DRY AIR WILL OVERTAKE
AREA FIRE DISTRICTS, PLUNGING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE 25
TO 35 PERCENT RANGE. CONCURRENTLY, NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
MAINTAIN SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 35 MPH
POSSIBLE. VERY LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE
TOMORROW. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS ELEVATED AS TODAY,
ACHIEVING SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5 TO 15 KTS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS OF UP
TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE, THE HIGHEST SPEEDS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA, WHICH WILL BE INCLUDED IN
ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 9 PM TOMORROW. ALL OTHER ZONES
WILL BE INCLUDED IN A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.
/26/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY IN THE EVENT OF WILDFIRE DEVELOPMENT.
/26/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 50 68 45 72 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 50 70 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 42 69 39 72 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 47 67 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 45 69 40 73 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 48 67 45 70 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 47 67 44 71 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 51 69 47 73 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ005-006-
013-014-018>022.
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ077.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ077.
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...19
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