493
FXUS64 KSHV 171134
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
634 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
- UPPER RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY WHICH
OTHER THAN ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON STORMS, WILL RESULT IN THE
END OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR FOUR STATE REGION.
- REPLACING THE RAINFALL WILL BE TYPICAL JULY HEAT THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND THROUGH VIRTUALLY ALL OF NEXT WEEK.
- NEAR TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN IMPACTING OUR REGION
ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK AND WE MAY BE LOOKING AT HEAT ADVISORIES BY THIS
TIMEFRAME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
DISSIPATING SHOWERS ACROSS SW AR ARE REMNANTS OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT IMPACTED PORTIONS OF NE TX EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS CONVECTION WAS TIED TO AFTERNOON HEATING
AND THE LAST GASP OF UPPER FORCING TIED TO A PERSISTANT TROUGH
WHICH WAS ANCHORED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE TEXAS HILL
COUNTRY. IN THE PLACE OF THIS UPPER FORCING TIED TO THE TROUGH
ITSELF WILL BE A BUILDING, SUPPRESSING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RETROGRADING NORTH AND WEST FROM THE N GULF COAST TODAY AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DID HOLD ONTO ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON POPS
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL BUT OUR FAR NORTHEAST ZONES
GIVEN THAT THERE WILL STILL BE A MOIST TONGUE OF HIGHER PWATS
ACROSS OUR WESTERN 2/3RDS THAT COULD INTERACT WITH DAYTIME HEATING
TO ALLOW FOR VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION. BOTH THE HREF AND REFS ARE
HINTING AT THIS POSSIBILITY TODAY BUT WE WILL NOT SEE NEAR THE
STORM COVERAGE THAT WE SAW IN FAR NE TX TODAY IF WE SEE ANY
ISOLATED STORMS AT ALL THIS AFTERNOON.
LOOKING UPSTREAM, UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF
THE COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND WILL BEGIN EXPANDING SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME WHICH
WILL ONLY CHOOSE TO SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION CHANCES AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO SOAR. NBM MOS OUTPUT IS HINTING AT NEAR TRIPLE
DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES FOR MONDAY
AND MORE AREAWIDE FOR TUE INTO WED OF NEXT WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT WITH VERY LOW PWAT VALUES IN PLACE UNDERNEATH THE BUILDING
RIDGE, WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN DEWPOINTS SOMEWHAT. EVEN
WITH THE SLIGHTLY LOWER AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH VALUES, WE STILL WILL
BE VERY CLOSE TO MAJOR TO EXTREME HEAT RISK THRESHOLDS FOR HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET AND PERHAPS EVEN POCKETS OF EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES BY MIDWEEK AS
DEWPOINTS MAY HAVE TROUGH MIXING OUT ACROSS OUR EAST WHEN COMPARED
TO OUR WESTERN ZONES.
HAVE NOT TALKED ABOUT THE UPPER TROUGH THAT BECOMES CUTOFF FROM
THE WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NE GULF FOR THIS WEEKEND BUT SOME MEDIUM
RANGE PROGS WANT TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE AND SHEAR THIS FEATURE OUT,
ELONGATING IT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OR S LA COAST BY MID TO
LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK. IF THIS WERE THE CASE, COULD POSSIBLY SEE AN
UPTICK IN AT LEAST DIURNALLY DRIVEN DAYTIME CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
FAR SOUTHERN ZONES ASSUMING THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE UPPER TO MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY BUT LOTS OF TIME TO
WATCH THIS FEATURE. FOR NOW, WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE NO RAIN
CHANCES BEYOND TODAY THROUGH THE 7-DAY FORECAST CYCLE.
13
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
FOR THE 17/06Z TAFS, SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CIGS MAY DESCEND TO
MVFR LEVELS AT KSHV AND OUR EAST TEXAS TERMINALS NEAR OR JUST
AFTER DAYBREAK, LIFTING WITHIN 2 TO 3 HOURS, WITH MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS PREVAILING AS A LATE MORNING CU FIELD BUILDS IN AND
PERSISTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
ACROSS EAST TEXAS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT CONFIDENCE DOES NOT
MERIT INCLUSION IN PREVAILING WX GROUPS AS OF THIS WRITING. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY INTO THE MORNING AT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS.
/26/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 93 77 94 76 / 20 10 0 0
MLU 96 77 97 76 / 10 10 0 0
DEQ 92 72 93 72 / 20 10 0 0
TXK 95 75 95 75 / 20 10 0 0
ELD 94 74 95 74 / 10 10 0 0
TYR 94 76 94 75 / 20 10 0 0
GGG 94 75 94 75 / 20 10 0 0
LFK 94 74 95 73 / 20 10 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...26
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