784
FXUS64 KSHV 131831
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1231 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S.
- RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE BY MIDWEEK BRINGING MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL AREAWIDE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 931 AM CST THU NOV 13 2025
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ARKLATEX THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTH
INTO FLORIDA. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTH FROM
THE GULF ALLOWING FOR ELEVATED RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. THE
COMBINATION OF HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 80 DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD
ALLOW HEAT INDEX VALUES TO APPROACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA EACH DAY.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, UPPER-FLOW TO BECOME MORE ZONAL ON MONDAY
AS THE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TO TRANSITION INTO SOMETHING MORE
UNSETTLED. BY TUESDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT SOUTH AND
LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES CAN
BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER-TROUGH
DRIVES A STRONGER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF STRONGER STORMS ARE JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME STRONG STORMS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. /05/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
FOR THE 13/18Z TAF PERIOD, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON
WITH AN EXPANSIVE CU FIELD CONTINUING TO LIFT IN THE 3-6KFT RANGE.
WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, CUMULUS MAY
LINGER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS LIKELY DROPPING TO LOW
VFR AND POSSIBLY MVFR AT SOME SITES BY AROUND 12Z FRIDAY MORNING.
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF PATCHY FOG ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT
WILL DEFER TO THE NEXT TAF CYCLE ON ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS GIVEN
THE LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR S/SW WINDS TO
GENERALLY AVERAGE BETWEEN 6-12 KTS WITH SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SPEEDS DROP OFF THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
/19/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 60 82 61 83 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 56 80 57 81 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 55 79 57 80 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 60 81 61 82 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 55 78 56 79 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 60 81 61 82 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 58 81 58 82 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 57 82 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...19
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