498
FXUS64 KSHV 080500
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND THE I-30 CORRIDOR, BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
- QUIET AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH AREAWIDE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE
90S.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
CONVECTION HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX THIS EVENING,
AND WHILE HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED TO
RESOLVE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW STORMS, PARTICULARLY IN REGARDS TO
POSITION AND TIMING, ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. BASED ON HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES, THE MOST LIKELY
REGIONS TO FAVOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND ALONG THE
I-30 CORRIDOR. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS OVERNIGHT IMPULSE OF MOISTURE
WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA NEAR DAYBREAK, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF AREAWIDE
STORM CHANCES DRIVEN BY THE LINGERING AXIS, DIMINISHING BY MID
EVENING.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, LOWS LOOK TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S,
FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S TOMORROW AT THE MAJORITY
OF SITES, ASIDE FROM THOSE WHERE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION LIMIT
WARMING. OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE ARKLATEX WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEY, TAKING THE AXIS WITH IT AND LEAVING THE REGION DRY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.
BY EARLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
AMPLIFY, FORMING A CLOSED HIGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WHICH
WILL DRIFT NORTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STEERING AROUND THIS HIGH
WILL AT LEAST OPEN THE DOOR TO AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CONVECTION
REACHING OUR SOUTHERN ZONES SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EASTERLY FLOW DELIVERS A
SERIES OF WEAKNESSES OUR WAY, ASSUMING WE REMAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE RIDGE. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO HELP
SUSTAIN OUR SUMMERTIME HEAT, THOUGH PRESENCE OF CONVECTION MAY
MANAGE TO LIMIT RUNAWAY HEATING. AT THIS POINT, HIGHS IN THE 90S
LOOK TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN PLACE, WITH MORE SITES AIMING AT THE
MIDDLE 90S. LOWS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S
THROUGHOUT.
/26/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAILING ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AIRSPACE ATTM
AS WE ARE SEEING SOME REMNANT DEBRIS CLOUD COVER FROM PREVIOUS
CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW AR AS WELL AS NE TX AND NW LA. IF
WE SEE ANY NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVERNIGHT, IT WILL LIKELY BE TIED TO
THE I-20 AND 30 CORRIDORS OF NE TX, PERHAPS SPREADING EASTWARD INTO
SW AR AND NW LA NEAR OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE WED MORNING SO HAVE
ACCOUNTED FOR THIS IN THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER DAY OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN MOSTLY SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
OUR AIRSPACE BEFORE CONVECTION DISSIPATES DURING THE MID TO LATE
EVENING HOURS ON WED. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY MVFR VSBYS THE
CLOSER WE GET TO SUNRISE IN THE MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AREAWIDE CURRENTLY. WINDS WILL BE VARYING FROM SE TO SW WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS DURING THIS TAF PACKAGE EXCEPT VARIABLE AND
MORE GUSTY IN AND AROUND CONVECTION.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE REGION. /26/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 86 72 93 77 / 60 30 30 10
MLU 92 73 94 76 / 20 30 40 10
DEQ 92 70 93 73 / 20 10 20 10
TXK 92 73 95 76 / 20 20 20 10
ELD 90 71 92 74 / 20 20 30 10
TYR 95 74 96 78 / 50 30 20 10
GGG 89 74 95 77 / 50 30 30 10
LFK 94 75 95 76 / 60 40 20 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...13
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