587
FXUS64 KSHV 231202 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
602 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 125 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
- RAIN SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY, WHILE TEMPERATURES HOLD IN THE
40'S AND 50'S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
- BY SUNSET, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO DROP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES, WHERE PRECIP TRANSITION (FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET) WILL
BEGIN THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY AM AS
THE AIRMASS SPILLS SOUTHWARD.
- CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO DAILY LIFE, INCLUDING DANGEROUS
OR IMPOSSIBLE DRIVING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS
INCREASING AS ICE ACCUMULATION AND COMBINED SLEET AND SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXTEND ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 125 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
ALL IS QUIET ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION TONIGHT AS WE BEGIN TO
TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE ONSET OF OUR LONG AWAITED WINTER STORM
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BEFORE WE GET THERE,
ASCENT ACROSS TEXAS WILL SUPPORT LIGHT AND SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE MORNING AND THE AFTERNOON. THE GOOD NEWS IS THIS WILL
ALL BE RAIN AS TEMPERATURES LINGER IN THE 40'S AND 50'S FOR HIGHS.
BY SUNSET, THE ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BECOME NOTICEABLE
FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-30, WITH SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR
THE LOUISIANA/ARKANSAS BORDER AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS
THE AIRMASS ADVANCES SOUTH, THE WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO CLASH WITH THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS FROM THE NORTH, AND SET THE STAGE FOR AN IMPACTFUL WINTER
WEATHER EVENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SINCE WE ARE APPROACHING THE ONSET PERIOD, HIGH RESOLUTION MODELING
IS GIVING US MORE DETAIL INTO THE PRECIP TRANSITION, ALONG WITH
TIMING. GUIDANCE, FOR THE MOST PART, AGREES UPON AN AREA OF WINTER
PRECIP (MAINLY ICE) STRETCHING FROM THE I-20 CORRIDOR NORTH TO AREAS
OF SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH SATURDAY
MID MORNING. THE ISSUE HERE IS THAT THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ALL
HAVE THEIR OWN SOLUTIONS OF WHAT KIND OF WINTER PRECIP WILL BE
DOMINATE. THIS IS AGAIN SWAYED BY THE DEGREE OF WARM NOSE SIMULATED
IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP. THAT BEING SAID, ICE
CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS WITH THIS EVENT, WITH SLEET
ACCUMULATION BEING THE SECONDARY FOCUS. THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT BY
NOON SATURDAY A SHARP CUT-OFF BETWEEN THE WINTER PRECIP MIX AND
COMPLETE RAIN WILL EXIST SOMEWHERE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE DE
SOTO PARISH LINE. THE P-TYPE LINE WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR
CLOSELY AS THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICK THE AIRMASS WORKS
SOUTH. THE EXPECTATION HOWEVER IS THAT WHAT STARTS AS RAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND PARISHES OF THE FA, WILL TRANSITION WINTER
PRECIP LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.
BY SUNDAY MORNING, PVA WILL BE MAXED ACROSS THE REGION AS THE AXIS
OF THE UPPER TROUGH WORKS INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS. IT IS
DURING THIS PERIOD THAT THE HEAVIEST RATES OF WINTER PRECIP IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. A SMALL FEATURE TO MENTION HERE IS
THAT DURING THIS PERIOD, IT WOULD NOT BE UNREALISTIC TO HEAR SOME
THUNDER. ELEVATED INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE THE HIGHEST IT WILL BE
DURING THE EVENT THROUGH THE SUNDAY MORNING PERIOD, WHICH COULD
SUPPORT INSTANCES OF THUNDER OVERHEAD. REGARDLESS, THE SUNDAY
MORNING PERIOD WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME OF THE MORE IMPACTFUL
INSTANCES OF THIS EVENT BEFORE THE PRECIP DEPARTS THE FOUR STATE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF SUNDAY. AS THE PRECIP IS
GRADUALLY EXITING THE AREA, THERE MAY BE A BRIEF TRANSITION TO
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE AIRMASS COMPLETELY SETTLES
BELOW FREEZING AND WE ELIMINATE THE STUBBORN WARM NOSE RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE MIXED PRECIP DURING THIS EVENT.
GIVEN THE INCREASED CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS DUE TO ICE
ACCUMULATION AND SLEET/SNOW ACCUMULATION, THE WINTER STORM WARNING
ISSUED THURSDAY AFTERNOON GOES INTO EFFECT STARTING AT 6 PM THIS
EVENING. THERE HAVE BEEN NO CHANGES MADE TO THE WINTER STORM WATCH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND PARISHES WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. WHILE AN UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM WARNING WAS CONSIDERED
FOR THE WATCH AREAS, THIS HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT
FORECAST CYCLE TO ALLOW FOR CONFIDENCE IN AN UPGRADE TO INCREASE.
BOTTOM LINE, THE CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE IMPACTFUL
ICE ACCUMULATION BETWEEN A HALF AN INCH TO NEAR AN INCH DURING THE
WEEKEND, WITH THE CHANCE THAT HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR. EXPECT
CONSIDERABLE DISRUPTIONS TO TRAVEL AND DAILY LIFE AS A RESULT OF
THIS. IT IS ENCOURAGED TO AVOID TRAVEL DURING THIS PERIOD AS
CLOSURES AND DISRUPTIONS TO INFRASTRUCTURE MAY OCCUR. EVEN ONCE
THE STORM EXITS THE REGION, BITTERLY COLD AND DANGEROUS
TEMPERATURES WILL EXIST MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT,
AN EXTREME COLD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW
TEENS, WITH WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR AND BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL DELAY
ANY QUICK THAW OF THE ICE THAT IS EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 40'S THROUGH THE WEEK, WHICH WILL HELP THE
THAW PROCESS.
ALL PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION BY THIS AFTERNOON,
IF NOT ALREADY DONE SO.
RK
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
IFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF LOWER E TX AND N LA ALONG/S OF I-20,
BEFORE CIGS BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT AND BECOME MVFR IN RESPONSE TO
SLIGHTLY LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR THAT WILL BACKDOOR SW INTO THE
REGION. MEANWHILE, VARIOUS MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION, BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING TO VFR DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, PERIODS OF -RA/-DZ WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP/SHIFT NE THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS NE TX INTO PORTIONS OF SW
AR/POSSIBLY EXTREME NW LA, BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT VSBY REDUCTIONS
WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE TYR/POSSIBLY GGG TERMINALS BEFORE
THE DRIER AIR ARE ABLE TO LIFT CIGS AND VSBYS. THIS WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS ADDITIONAL SHRA INCREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/SW AR AND CHANGES OVER TO FZRA
BY/SHORTLY AFTER 00Z, AS THE SHALLOW ARCTIC COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
DRIFT S INTO THE AREA. THUS, THE POTENTIAL FOR ICING WILL INCREASE
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SW AR TERMINALS, EVENTUALLY SPREADING S
TO THE TYR/GGG TERMINALS BY/SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. THE CHANGEOVER TO
FZRA WILL NOT REACH THE SHV/MLU TERMINALS BY OR SHORTLY BEFORE THE
END OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD, ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER BACK
TO MVFR OVER ALL BUT ELD/MLU THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE COLUMN
SATURATES FROM THE TOP DOWN. ADDITIONAL CIG DETERIORATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AREAWIDE AS FZRA SLOWLY BEGINS
TO SPREAD SSE ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR. NE WINDS 7-20KTS THIS
MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 23KTS AFTER 18Z,
AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 602 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY FOR
ACCUMULATION REPORTS OF ICE AND SNOW ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION.
/15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 54 27 30 23 / 30 80 100 100
MLU 53 28 32 22 / 10 50 100 100
DEQ 45 17 23 14 / 50 100 100 100
TXK 46 21 25 19 / 50 90 100 100
ELD 47 18 25 15 / 30 80 100 100
TYR 52 26 29 19 / 70 90 100 100
GGG 53 25 30 20 / 50 90 100 100
LFK 59 33 42 23 / 40 70 100 100
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY
FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY
FOR LAZ001>006-010>014.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR LAZ017>022.
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY
FOR OKZ077.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR OKZ077.
TX...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY
FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR TXZ152-153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...15
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