497
FXUS64 KSHV 170646
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
146 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BUILD TODAY OVER OUR NORTH AND
WEST WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES REMAINING FROM LUFKIN TO MONROE.
HEAT INDEX WILL KEEP IN CHECK TODAY, BUT LOOM LARGE THURSDAY.
- THE THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING WILL
LINGER OVER DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA WITH SLOW
STORM MOVEMENT AND SOAKED SOILS THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK.
- THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND ADDITIONAL
FLOODING MAY RETURN TO PORTIONS OF OUR FOUR-STATE AREA WITH A
WEAK COOL FRONT POOLING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
QUIET EVENING FOR US WITH FAIR SKIES LIKELY TO CLOUD UP WITH MORE
LOW STATUS EARLY AROUND DAYBREAK AND INTO MID MORNING. IT WILL BE
WARMING UP FOR US AGAIN WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK IN PLAY. THE
WINDS WILL BE BRISK AT TIMES OVER OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF CO/PA
ADJACENT TO THE ACTION IN THE GULF OF AMERICA. THE NHC IS CLOSELY
WATCHING PTC ONE, WHICH IS LARGELY UNCHANGED AT THIS POINT, BUT
THERE IS A BIG UPTICK IN CONVECTION JUST OFFSHORE OF THE TX
COASTAL BEND. DAYLIGHT WILL ENHANCE SEEING THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION, BUT FOR NOW LIGHTER W/NW WINDS ALOFT WILL KEEP STORM
MOTION SLOW, UNTIL THE ANVILS GET UP LIKE SPINNAKERS ON A SAIL
BOAT, MOVING STORMS MORE QUICKLY WITH MATURITY. LOW TOP
DEVELOPMENT WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO BRING EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS QUICKLY
WITH STILL OVER 2 INCH PWAT ON BOTH LAKE CHARLES AND JACKSON
SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING, WHILE SHREVEPORT'S WAS 1.77", THUS
SHOWING THE NEED FOR THE FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE FOR NOW.
THE HEAT WILL BUILD AREAWIDE, BUT MORE THE CASE OVER OK/TX AND
NORTH OF I-20 FOR LA/AR. THE HEAT INDEX WILL BEHAVE AT LEAST FOR
TODAY, BUT CALCULATIONS FOR THURSDAY MAY REQUIRE A HEAT ADVISORY.
HOWEVER, A REGARDLESS OF THE COASTAL INFLUENCES, A WEAK COOL
FRONT WILL DROP DOWN OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND SETTLE INTO TO
OUR AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY FOR A SOGGY JUNETEENTH. THIS IS DUE TO
THE LARGE AREA OF CONVERGENCE OF SE WINDS SOUTH OF I-20 AND NE
WINDS ACROSS AR AND DOWN TO ALONG I-20 INTO LA. SO WHAT WE WILL
SEE IN A BRIEF HEAT THREAT MAY BE REPLACED BY MORE FLOODING AGAIN
WITH THE WPC EROS SHADING MORE SLIGHT RISK AND MORE MODERATE RISK
FOR OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THEN SLOWLY RELENTING BACK TO
MARGINAL BY EARLY SATURDAY. THE SPC ELEVATES GENERAL SEVERE RISK
TO MARGINAL RISK AHEAD OF THE COOL FRONT.
SO A LOT OF RAINFALL REMAINS OUR BIGGEST THREAT ALONG WITH A HOT
DAY ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE SINKING BACKDOOR AIR MASS, ADDING
SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING TO BUILD STORMS THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF
LINGERING OVERNIGHT, THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SO
SUFFICE IT TO SAY, STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECAST AND
POTENTIAL CHANGES WITH THE EAST MEETS WEST SCENARIO. /24/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
FOR THE 17/06Z TAF PERIOD, AN AIRMASS RICH IN MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT, PERSISTING THROUGH MID-MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THEREAFTER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
MVFR CEILINGS TO RETURN AFTER 18/03Z. S/SE WINDS SO INCREASE TO 10-
15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS FROM 17/15Z THROUGH 18/00Z. WIND
GUSTS TO DIMINISH AFTER 18/00Z. OTHERWISE, VCTS CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ACROSS LFK/MLU THIS AFTERNOON. /05/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY RESUME LATER TODAY/TONIGHT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOOD REPORTS IN DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA.
/24/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 88 75 93 78 / 20 20 30 20
MLU 89 76 91 77 / 40 40 50 50
DEQ 91 74 93 74 / 0 10 10 70
TXK 93 75 96 76 / 0 10 10 60
ELD 90 74 92 75 / 10 20 30 60
TYR 90 75 95 79 / 0 10 0 20
GGG 90 75 94 78 / 0 10 10 10
LFK 88 75 96 79 / 30 20 20 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LAZ017>022.
OK...NONE.
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR TXZ152-165>167.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...19
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page