576
FXUS64 KSHV 130018
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
618 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
- MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK, WITH A SERIES
OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SOME
SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES, MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF A
CLOSED UPPER TROUGH IN NORTHERN MEXICO, QUIET CONDITIONS REMAIN
UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE VERY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S AREAWIDE
AGAIN TONIGHT, BUT CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP THE LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S. THE FEW EXCEPTIONS COULD BE MCCURTAIN COUNTY, OK AND IN
ADJACENT AREAS NORTH OF I-30 IN SW ARKANSAS, WHERE TEMPS COULD
STILL FALL TO NEAR FREEZING. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH THE
SKY COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND STREAM OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF THAT TROUGH AS IT
SHIFTS EAST TOWARDS THE AREA. HOWEVER, HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO START SLOWLY PUSHING EASTWARD BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING,
RESULTING IN THE RETURN OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO
MID 60S AREAWIDE. THE PREVIOUS MENTIONED CLOSED TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO OPEN UP AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THIS, MODELS STILL HINT AT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS OUR DEEP EAST TEXAS AND ADJACENT CENTRAL
LOUISIANA ZONES TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS COULD YIELD SOME SLIGHTLY
COOLER AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THOSE ZONES IF THE RAIN
MATERIALIZES. EXPECT THE WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT,
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
EVENTUALLY, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL DRIVE ANOTHER FRONT INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY BASED ON
PAST MODEL RUNS, BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN'T BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION BASED
ON THIS MORNING'S MODEL RUNS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW
IN WAKE OF THE FRONT, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE. AT THIS
TIME, WIND ADVISORIES ARE UNLIKELY, AS SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 20 MPH. THE PUBLIC SHOULD STILL EXERCISE
CAUTION ON AREA WATERWAYS, AS THOSE WINDS WILL MAKE FOR CHOPPY
CONDITIONS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY, WITH MORNING LOWS
NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING AREAWIDE, AND HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 50
DEGREES. FREEZING TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN FOR MOST OF THE
REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING, BUT A SLIGHT WARM-UP CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR FRIDAY'S HIGHS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER, THIS WARMING TREND WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY, BRINGING A RETURN OF
SUB-FREEZING MORNING LOWS AND HIGHS IN THE 50S THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ONE THING OF NOTE WITH SATURDAY'S FRONTAL PASSAGE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. THERE HAS BEEN SOME HINT THAT SOME
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION COULD FORM WITH THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME, AS LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN WITH
THIS SCENARIO. BECAUSE OF THIS, DECIDED TO KEEP FORECAST DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD, AS IT'S OUR BELIEF THAT MOISTURE WILL BE VERY
LIMITED. PLEASE CONTINUE TO STAY TUNED IN FOR ANY CHANGES. /20/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, COOL AIR MASS TO OUR EAST NOW WITH
LIGHT E/SE WIND OVERNIGHT UNDER SCTVBKN CIRRUS. WE WILL SEE SOME
MIDDECK EDGE ACROSS E TX EARLY ON TUESDAY WITH THE WEAKENING
UPPER LOW APPROACHING. VCSH POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY WITH OUR NEXT FROPA. UNTIL THEN, S/SW WINDS AFTER
DAYBREAK WITH SPEEDS PICKING UP TO 10G18KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. SW
SHIFTS TO NW15KT EARLY ON WEDNESDAY 12-16Z WITH CLEARING SKIES
FOR MOST, PERHAPS MVFR E OF I-49 UNTIL LATE DAY AS WINDS EASE.
/24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
CURRENT WORK WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 39 64 46 62 / 0 10 10 0
MLU 34 61 44 60 / 0 0 10 10
DEQ 30 65 39 57 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 38 65 45 60 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 33 62 41 58 / 0 0 0 10
TYR 40 63 44 62 / 0 10 0 0
GGG 37 64 43 63 / 0 10 0 0
LFK 38 60 42 64 / 0 20 20 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...24
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page