619
FXUS64 KSHV 112340
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
640 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
- CAN'T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS MAINLY
OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES.
- WE WILL BE WATCHING A COMPLEX OF STORM THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS IT'S REMNANTS
WILL BE OUR KEY WEATHER FACTOR FOR SUNDAY.
- STORMS SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES
SUNDAY MORNING BUT THERE COULD BE AN UPTICK IN STORM COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
AN EXPANSIVE CU FIELD WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA TODAY WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALREADY
DEVELOPING JUST TO OUR WEST. AS WE GO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING, CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES BUT THESE STORMS SHOULD NOT BE STRONG IN INTENSITY
AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING.
OUR ATTENTION WILL BE DRAWN TO STORM INITIATION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY
WHERE A COMPLEX OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP. CONVECTION WILL
INITIATE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF UPPER FORCING THAT WILL BE
EXITING NORTHERN MEXICO AND WILL BE AIDED BY A NOCTURNAL 50+KT LOW
LEVEL JET THAT WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS
OVERNIGHT. WHILE THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME TIMING DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN VARIOUS HIGH RES PROGS AND DETERMINISTIC PROGS, THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT AS THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVES TOWARDS
OUR REGION DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY MORNING, THERE SHOULD
BE A WEAKENING TREND TO THESE STORMS AND THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE IN
THAT WE WILL HAVE A WEAKER LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS OUR REGION NOT TO
MENTION THE COMPLEX WILL BE ENTERING OUR REGION DURING A DIURNAL
MINIMUM WHEN IT COMES TO INSTABILITY. REMNANT UPPER FLOW WILL BE
BEST DESCRIBED AS "DIRTY" DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY AND
THUS, WEAKER UPPER FORCING WILL BE PRESENT BUT WE WILL NEED TO
AWAIT DAYTIME HEATING FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE ONCE AGAIN AND IT'S THESE INGREDIENTS, COMBINING WITH
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING CONVECTION THAT SHOULD
RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF OUR REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE KIND OF MARGINAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE HAIL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES MAY APPROACH
40KTS OR SO DURING THIS WINDOW AND LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
PROFILES DO SUPPORT AT LEAST A MINOR TORNADO THREAT NEAR AND NORTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN SPC'S DAY
TWO MARGINAL RISK THREAT AREA WHICH RUNS NEAR AND WEST OF A LINE
FROM LUFKIN TEXAS AND SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA TO NEAR PRESCOTT
ARKANSAS.
CONVECTION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE DURING THE
LATE EVENING HOURS ON SUNDAY BUT ESPECIALLY AS WE GET INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AND PREDAWN HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. HELD ONTO
MOSTLY CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR REGION AS THIS SOUTHWEST, DIRTY FLOW
ALOFT IS STILL PRESENT ACROSS OUR REGION BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AS THAT POSSIBILITY WILL
REMAIN WELL WEST OF OUR REGION WHERE BETTER FORCING WILL EXIST,
CLOSER TO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ITSELF.
SPEAKING OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR WEST, A PIECE OF ENERGY
EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY WED/WED NIGHT AND THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH FORCING ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THIS DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TO GENERATE SOME IN THE WAY OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES BUT THIS IS
FAR FROM CERTAIN AS WE CONTINUE TO SEE PROGS STRUGGLING WITH ANY
KIND OF CONSISTENCY WITH THESE EJECTING PIECES OF FORCING. THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMES REESTABLISHED BY THE END OF THE WEEK
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND THAT
WILL KEEP OUR REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH AT LEAST THE
END OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
13
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
FOR THE 12/00Z TAFS, SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER ON THE WESTERN
FRINGES OF ARKLATEX AIRSPACE, EXPECTED TO DIMINISH INTO THE
EVENING. LIKEWISE, LOWER VFR CIGS WILL LIFT EARLY THIS EVENING,
WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF EARLY MORNING MVFR TO IFR CIGS SETTLES IN
BETWEEN 12/10Z AND 12/16Z. AREAS OF SUSTAINED RAINFALL WILL BEGIN
TO ARRIVE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW, IMPACTING FIRST OUR NORTHERN
AND WESTERN TERMINALS. AT THESE TERMINALS, CIGS WILL NOT LIFT MUCH
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. ELSEWHERE, OVC MID LEVEL DECKS CAN BE
EXPECTED. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT, BECOMING ELEVATED
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE AND LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS IN
THE VICINITY OF STORMS.
/26/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL POTENTIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS, SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 63 84 67 84 / 20 30 50 30
MLU 60 87 66 88 / 10 10 20 20
DEQ 60 79 62 79 / 20 70 70 50
TXK 65 84 68 83 / 20 50 70 50
ELD 61 85 64 83 / 20 20 50 40
TYR 66 80 67 83 / 20 70 60 30
GGG 64 81 66 83 / 20 50 60 30
LFK 64 82 67 83 / 20 50 40 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...26
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page