692
FXUS64 KSHV 040230
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
930 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2020
UPDATE
MAIN UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT HAVE BEEN MADE TO SKY
COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RECENT TRENDS SEEN OFF SATELLITE IMAGERY.
RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
OUR FAR SOUTHERN PARISHES OF THE CWA, HOWEVER, THEY SEEM TO BE
TRENDING DOWN AS WELL NOW THAT WE ARE LOSING OUR DAYTIME HEATING.
THAT BEING SAID NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NEEDED
TONIGHT AS OTHER ELEMENTS ARE TRENDING AS FORECASTED. /33/
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 629 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2020/
AVIATION...
FOR THE 04/00Z TAFS...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE ONLY SITE
CURRENTLY THAT COULD BE IMPACTED BY A STRAY SHOWER WOULD BE KLFK,
SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OF VCTS IN FOR NOW. MEANWHILE, LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. ASIDE FROM THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING AND INTO SOME OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD FOR MOST
TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR KGGG, KLFK, AND KTYR WHERE
SOME MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND 15Z.
/33/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2020/
SHORT TERM.../THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
A WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR THE BOOT HEEL OF MISSOURI CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH
VERTICAL ASCENT FROM THIS TROUGH COMBINED WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON IN THE UNCAPPED
ENVIRONMENT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONSIDERABLY MORE
NUMEROUS FARTHER NORTH INTO ARKANSAS NEAR THE TROUGH. WEAK
NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW MAY BRING SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, SOUTHERN ARKANSAS, AND NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA THROUGH THIS EVENING. SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS, MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
ON THURSDAY, MORE DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BUT WILL LIKELY
BE EVEN MORE LIMITED TO AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM EL DORADO AR TO
COLFAX LA, WHERE THE BEST PLUME OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
LOCATED. FARTHER WEST, SUBSIDENCE FROM AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
SOUTHWEST TEXAS SHOULD LARGELY DOMINATE AND KEEP THINGS MOSTLY
DRY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE COULD
RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. HOWEVER, THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE
RIDGE WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO BRING THESE
STORMS IN OUR FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE, WARM AND MUGGY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE OF
THUMB. WITH EVEN LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION ON
THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLIMB EVERY HIGHER.
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S CAN BE EXPECTED AREAWIDE.
CN
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK/
THE MAIN STORY IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF CRISTOBAL.
CRISTOBAL IS CURRENTLY JUST ONSHORE IN THE STATE OF CAMPECHE
(MEXICO), AND IS EXPECTED TO TEMPORARILY WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION BY
TOMORROW AS IT OSCILLATES SLOWLY NEAR THE MEXICAN SHORE FOR ROUGHLY
36 HOURS. BUT ON FRIDAY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) IS
CONFIDENT THE SYSTEM WILL START TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND WILL LIKELY MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE LA COAST AROUND SUNDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. CONSIDERING THIS EXPECTED LANDFALL TIME IS 4
DAYS - AND CHANGE - DOWN THE ROAD FROM NOW, IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO
BE CONFIDENT ON EXACT DETAILS OF TRACK. HOWEVER, UNDERLYING FORECAST
MODEL CONSENSUS IS PRETTY DECENT AND CRISTOBAL WILL LIKELY BRING
SOME IMPACT TO THE FOUR STATE REGION.
FORTUNATELY, ALTHOUGH THE NHC IS CONFIDENT CRISTOBAL WILL PICK UP
STRENGTH AGAIN AS HE HEADS THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO, THEY ARE NOT
CONFIDENT HURRICANE STRENGTH WILL BE ATTAINABLE. THUS, SOME GUSTY
WIND IMPACT IS POSSIBLE IN THE REGION (ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-20) ON
MONDAY, BUT IT IS FAR FROM CERTAIN WHETHER OUR INLAND REGION WILL
EVENTUALLY NEED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH; DEFINITELY AN ASPECT TO
MONITOR CLOSELY. ANOTHER BIG ASPECT TO WATCH IS THE TREND IN WHERE
THE CENTER IS TRACKING. THE NHC CURRENTLY HAS THE CENTER SET TO
TRACK OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AND IF THIS HOLDS
THE WORST WIND, TORNADO, AND HEAVY RAIN IMPACTS MIGHT BE LARGELY
OVER THE ARKLAMISS AND TO OUR EAST. HOWEVER, SUBTLE TRENDS WEST IN
THE CENTER TRACK WILL OPEN UP MORE OF OUR REGION TO THE ABOVE
THREATS. OF COURSE, GIVEN THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST AND MODEL
CONSENSUS, OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES DEFINITELY HAVE THE LEAST THREAT OF
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.
AS FAR AS THE RAIN THREAT GOES, A GOOD EXPECTED ASPECT TO CRISTOBAL
WILL BE A DECENT FORWARD MOVEMENT (~15 MPH) AS IT COMES NORTH THROUGH
THE REGION. THIS WILL LIMIT MAXIMUM THEORETICAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THAT WILL BE POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH SOME HEAVY BULLSEYES OF 5+ INCHES
CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTER TRACK.
FOR NOW, WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS AS IT IS FAR TOO EARLY TO
ISSUE ANY INLAND TROPICAL WATCHES OR FLASH FLOOD WATCHES.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT A CONTINUED TREND TO MORE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AND AGAIN BY TUESDAY INTO NEXT
WEDNESDAY (ONCE THE REMNANTS OF CRISTOBAL GETS CLEAR OF OUR REGION).
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF ZONES FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH THEY SHOULD BE
MUCH MORE ISOLATED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE
FOR THE OUTER-MOST BANDS OF CRISTOBAL TO START PIVOTING NORTH OF THE
COAST AND INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OF COURSE,
RAIN AND OTHER IMPACTS WILL BE INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEIR
CONCENTRATED LOCATION WILL BE MAINLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE EXACT
TRACK ENDS UP (AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE). /50/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 73 92 73 92 / 20 30 0 20
MLU 72 91 73 91 / 30 40 10 40
DEQ 70 91 71 93 / 10 20 10 10
TXK 73 90 73 91 / 20 20 0 20
ELD 70 91 71 92 / 20 40 10 30
TYR 73 91 73 93 / 10 10 0 0
GGG 72 92 73 93 / 20 10 0 10
LFK 73 93 72 94 / 20 10 0 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
33/09/50
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