299
FXUS64 KSHV 161125
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
525 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
- A BRIEF WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
FRIDAY, BEFORE SHARPLY COLDER CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
- DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND, WITH A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN UP THE
NEW WORK WEEK BEFORE MILDER CONDITIONS RETURN, ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
THE LATE EVENING SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT SFC RIDGING HAS
SHIFTED E INTO FAR SE LA AND THE NRN GULF, WITH SRLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS HAVING RECENTLY RETURNED ON ITS BACKSIDE ACROSS E TX AND
PORTIONS OF N LA. THESE RETURNING WINDS HAVE BEEN A BIT DELAYED
WHICH HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO REACH/FALL BEYOND THE ORIGINALLY
FORECAST LOWS, BUT A SLOW RISE IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED HERE SOON AS
WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND OZARKS
REGION. MEANWHILE, OUR NEXT ANTICIPATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS
PLUNGING S INTO ERN CO/NRN KS ATTM, WITH MULTIPLE SFC OBS
MEASURING WIND GUSTS OF 45-65+ KTS AND A WALL OF BLDU, ALONG THE
BASE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH NOW DIGGING THROUGH THE PLAINS. THIS
FRONT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT S INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY,
AND ENTER THE NW ZONES OF EXTREME SE TX/NE TX/SW AR BY MID-
MORNING. THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT WILL YIELD THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A 45-50KT SWRLY LLJ, WHICH WILL BEGIN TO PARTIALLY
MIX DOWN TO THE SFC THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THESE SW WINDS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR COMPRESSIONAL HEATING ALONG THE FRONT WILL RESULT
IN MILDER CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY OVER LOWER E TX/N LA, BEFORE THE
COLD AIR AND ATTENDANT COLD ADVECTION DEEPENS ENOUGH TO SPILL
FARTHER S INTO OUR AREA. THE MAJORITY OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE AND
GFS SUGGEST SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NE INTO LOWER E
TX/N LA AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT REMAIN TOO SHALLOW
FOR -SHRA DEVELOPMENT, BEFORE THE FRONT CLEARS THE SE ZONES BY OR
SHORTLY AFTER 00Z SATURDAY.
COLD AND DRY ADVECTION WILL INCREASE IN EARNEST DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH THE CNTRL CONUS
LONGWAVE TROUGH RELOADING SATURDAY AS AN ATTENDANT JET STREAK
WORKS S THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. ELEVATED MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE ALONG THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY
AND DEEPEN BENEATH THESE AC CIGS THROUGH THE DAY. IN FACT, SFC
DEWPOINTS SHOULD FALL INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH
SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE TX/SE OK/ADJACENT SECTIONS OF SW
AR. WHILE PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THAT THE COLD AIR WILL
DEEPEN ALOFT TO HELP SUPPORT -SN DEVELOPMENT, VARIOUS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT OVERALL MOISTURE AND FORCING WILL BE
LACKING WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, WITH THE DEPTH OF THE
DRY AIR INCREASING FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE ATTENDANT MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. GIVEN THE
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE VARIOUS PROGS, AND THE EXTENT AND
DEPTH OF THE VERY DRY POST-FRONTAL AIR, BELIEVE ANY SPRINKLES OR
LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES WILL BE A LONG STRETCH, AND THUS HAVE REMOVED
MENTION FROM THE FORECAST.
THE ELEVATED CIGS WILL QUICKLY SCATTER AND CLEAR OUT FROM NW TO SE
WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT, AS ARCTIC RIDGING BUILDING
S INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND THE FOUR STATE REGION. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE WINTER WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF SUBFREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED AREAWIDE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID
TO LATE MORNING SUNDAY. IN FACT, A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS
SE OK AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF SW AR SATURDAY NIGHT, BEFORE
MODERATING TEMPS RETURN SUNDAY ONCE THE SFC RIDGE SHIFTS SE INTO
THE LOWER MS VALLEY/NRN GULF. ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER
AIR WILL MIX S INTO THE AREA MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT, THUS MAINTAINING
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE DRY NW FLOW IN
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LONGWAVE TROUGH SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO
FLATTEN OUT OVER TX AND THE GULF COAST STATES TUESDAY, WITH AN
INFLUX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE OVERSPREADING THE REGION BY MIDWEEK, IN
TIME AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE FROM THE WRN GULF.
HENCE, MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL APPEARS TO FINALLY RETURN TO THE AREA
FOR MID AND LATE WEEK, ALTHOUGH EXACT TIMING AND POTENTIAL AMOUNTS
REMAIN UNCERTAIN ATTM.
15
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 518 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY, VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGH THE
TERMINAL FORECAST ENDING 17/12Z. SOUTHWEST WIND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
AND GUSTY THIS MORNING TO TRANSITION TO WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE,
WINDS TO RELAX TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. /05/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 65 35 50 25 / 0 0 0 10
MLU 67 36 50 24 / 10 10 0 10
DEQ 56 27 44 15 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 59 33 46 21 / 10 0 0 0
ELD 61 32 46 20 / 10 0 0 0
TYR 62 33 49 24 / 0 0 0 10
GGG 64 32 49 22 / 0 0 0 10
LFK 70 37 51 26 / 0 0 10 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...05
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