588
FXUS64 KSHV 230417 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1017 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
- WEAK COLD FRONT WILL KNOCK DOWN TEMPERATURES TODAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FOUR STATE REGION BUT TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
HALF WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.
- NEXT STORM SYSTEM POISED TO BEGIN IMPACTING OUR REGION LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING
WITH IT AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE
STORMS.
- MUCH COLDER AIR IS POISED TO INFILTRATE OUR REGION WED INTO THU
WITH A CHANCE AT FREEZING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHERN ZONES WED NIGHT AND THU NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL STAY RELATIVELY ZONAL AHEAD OF THE INCOMING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED MONDAY. BUT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL
STAY DRY WITH SUNDAY'S HIGH IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BUT INITIAL SHORT-RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE KEPT RAIN TIME OF ARRIVAL AT MONDAY MORNING
AND LASTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN CONCERN AT THIS
TIME IS THE FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RAIN. THE HOPE IS THAT THE RECENT DRYNESS HAS SET SOIL UP TO
ABSORB MUCH OF THE RAINFALL, BUT PAVED AND LOW-LYING AREAS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POOLING WATER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THERE
IS ALSO A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER, BUT THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
CO-OCCURRING FORCING AND INSTABILITY. BOTH HAZARDS WILL BE MOST
LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR AND WILL BE A MAJOR
FOCUS FOR FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES.
UPON THE COLD FRONT'S PASSAGE LATE ON TUESDAY, COOLER AIR AND
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE ARK-LA-TX. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE 50S/60S WILL BE THE PERFECT FALL CONDITIONS FOR THE HOLIDAY
ON THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE FLIRTING WITH FREEZING FOR OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES, BUT THE WORST OF THE COLD WILL STAY TO OUR
NORTH. A HINT OF THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE COMING LATE
THIS PERIOD THANKS TO A LONGWAVE TROUGH.
57
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
ALL TAFS ARE VFR CURRENTLY, ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS WITH BASES FROM 2
TO 3K FEET AGL ARE IN SE OK AND PORTIONS OF SW AR, BUT LOW
CEILINGS LATER TONIGHT GETTING INTO TXK AND ELD HAVE BEEN DELAYED
OVER WHAT WAS REPRESENTED IN THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE. SOME VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ALL AREAS, ALTHOUGH ANY DENSE FOG
SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND IS NOT REPRESENTED IN ANY TAFS THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE I-20 CORRIDOR, THERE IS
MORE CONFIDENCE IN PATCHY IFR CEILINGS AND MAYBE SOME VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS IN SHV AND MLU FROM APPROXIMATELY 6 AM THROUGH 10 AM.
THIS WAS REPRESENTED IN MOST OF THESE TAFS TO ONE DEGREE OR
ANOTHER, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOW HIGHER THAT TYR AND LFK MAY
REMAIN ENTIRELY (OR LARGELY) VFR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. ABOVE THE LOW STUFF, EXPECT INCREASING CIRRUS FROM 20 TO
25K FEET THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SUB VFR
CONDITIONS COULD LINGER A WHILE INTO TOMORROW MORNING AT
ELD/TXK/MLU, BUT CONFIDENCE IS DECENT THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL IN ALL AREAS BY NOON. OTHERWISE, CURRENT LIGHT WINDS FROM
THE NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING AND
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST BY TOMORROW MORNING.
THESE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY START VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRING RAIN, STORMS, AND BAD FLYING CONDITIONS TO THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
NOT EXPECTED BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...AND THEN MAINLY
CONFINED TO TYR AND TXK. /50/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER, SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
DUE TO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
50
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 52 72 56 77 / 0 0 30 70
MLU 51 71 51 78 / 0 0 0 40
DEQ 44 67 49 64 / 0 0 70 90
TXK 50 68 53 70 / 0 0 50 90
ELD 48 67 47 71 / 0 0 20 70
TYR 47 70 56 73 / 0 0 50 90
GGG 47 71 54 75 / 0 0 40 90
LFK 48 74 55 79 / 0 0 20 70
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...50
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page