868  
FXUS64 KSHV 181856  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
156 PM CDT THU JUL 18 2024  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1037 AM CDT THU JUL 18 2024  
 
ANOTHER SMALL UPDATE THIS MORNING TO AGAIN MASSAGE BOTH AFTERNOON  
HIGHS, AND POPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. I DID SLIGHTLY ADJUST  
AFTERNOON HIGHS GIVEN THE LACK OF ONGOING PRECIPITATION, AND SOME  
OF THE CLEARING CLOUDS. HOWEVER, I DID NOT MAKE ANY REAL WHOLESALE  
CHANGES FROM THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST PACKAGE.  
 
/44/  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
 
(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT THU JUL 18 2024  
 
A LOT CAN CHANGE IN A DAY WITH LOW TO MID 70S AREAWIDE THIS  
MORNING. OUR DEW POINTS REMAIN CLOSE BY, BUT FEW WITH SATURATION.  
VARIABLE WINDS, SOME GUSTY AROUND THE CONVECTION AND YET MANY  
SITES QUIET AND CALM, BUT FOG IS ONLY SHOWING UP AT FEW SITES. THE  
COOL FRONT AND IT'S LOWER DEW POINTS IN THE 60S IS EDGING INTO SE  
OK AND SNAKES UP ACROSS N AR. THE OUTFLOW FROM YESTERDAY REALLY  
WAS A GAME CHANGER BRINGING RAINFALL IN AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. THE  
1024MB SURFACE HIGH CORE RESIDES OVER MN/WI WITH LIGHT BUT  
WIDESPREAD N/NE WINDS SLIDING DOWN THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY THIS  
MORNING. WE WILL SEE THIS WIND SHIFT ADVANCE INTO OUR AREA EVEN  
MORE QUICKLY NOW WITH THE CLOUDS AND ONGOING RAIN AND THE BIG  
OUTFLOW LATE YESTERDAY PAVING THE WAY.  
 
WE CAN SEE THE H500 WEAK LOW OVER NE TX RIGHT NOW WITH RADAR  
IMAGERY SHOWING THE ROTATION. FARTHER SOUTH, THE CONVECTION IS A  
LOT MORE ROBUST WORKING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES AND  
PARISHES FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THE DAYTIME HEAT WILL HELP TO  
DEVELOP MORE CONVECTION AREAWIDE AS THE RECOVERY OVER MOST OF OUR  
AREA CONTINUES TO IMPROVE. SO RAINFALL TOTALS MAY NOT BE THE BEST  
AREAWIDE, BUT WE WILL SEE THE ADVERTISED CHANGE IN OUR  
TEMPERATURE PATTERN REALIZED. HIGHS TODAY WILL KEEP IN THE 80S AND  
WE MAY NOT SEE ANY TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES AND THAT IS A BIG WIN.  
WE WILL SEE WHAT HEATING CAN MUSTER UP WITH THE CORE WEAKNESS  
SLIDING EASTWARD ALONG I-20 OUR CORRIDOR. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE  
COOLER WITH FAIR SKIES OPENING UP A BIT AND A RANGE OF UPPER 60S  
TO LOWER 70S WILL GO FORWARD INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS AGAIN FOR OUR  
FRIDAY WILL KEEP TO THE 80S AND WARM BEYOND THAT THIS WEEKEND.  
 
THE SPC WILL KEEP A RUNNING GENERAL RISK OUT FOR A WHILE IN OUR  
NECK OF THE WOODS WITH COOLER TEMPS AND SLIGHTLY LESS PWAT THAN WE  
HAD JUST A DAY AGO. AND WHILE WE WILL LOOSE AREAWIDE QPF IN THE  
NEXT DAY OR TWO, IT WILL BE LIFTING BACK FOR US WITH THE  
BOUNDARY. THE 7 DAY TOTAL IS SPORTING A HOLE OVER OUR I-30 NOW  
WITH THE LEAST AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH, SURROUNDED BY SLIGHTLY  
HIGHER 2-3 INCHES AMOUNTS DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME.  
 
/24/  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
 
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT THU JUL 18 2024  
 
THE LONG TERM PATTERN REMAINS HOPEFUL FOR MORE MID-SUMMER  
CONVECTION AND SLIGHTLY BELOW, OR AROUND AVERAGE TEMPS THROUGH THE  
PERIOD OF MUCH OF NEXT WORK WEEK. THE AIR MASS IN THE MIDWEST  
WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD, BUT KEEP A TOE HOLD DOWN THE MS RIVER  
VALLEY. AND AS OUR WEAK COOL FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY TONIGHT, IT  
WILL EVENTUALLY SLOWLY WASH BACK NORTHWARD, SO DECENT RAIN  
CHANCES SOUTH OF I-20 WILL BE LIFTING BACK AREA WIDE IN THE COMING  
DAYS FOR A LITTLE QPF LAGNIAPPE ON A RECYCLED BOUNDARY. THE BIG  
HEAT RIDGE KEEP WELL OUR WEST AND WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A LARGE  
SCALE, SLIGHTLY DEEPER UPPER LOW AT 582DAM SETTLING ACROSS KN/MO  
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY WASH OUT AND KEEP THE  
GOOD STUFF GOING FOR MUCH OF OUR LONG TERM. THE PACIFIC NW UPPER  
LOW WILL SIT AND SPIN, EXPANDING OUT AND WORKING SE TO HELP SHOVE  
THE UPPER HEAT RIDGE DOWN OVER THE DESERT SW U.S. BY THIS TIME  
NEXT WEEK. SO DEFINITELY AND INTERESTING PATTERN THAT WILL PERSIST  
FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THIS MONTH.  
 
/24/  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT THU JUL 18 2024  
 
FOR THE 18/18Z TAF PERIOD...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS  
MUCH OF OUR AIRSPACE, AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN  
ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS NEAR AN ADVANCING COOL FRONT. THESE CLOUDS  
WILL HOLD ON THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, WITH  
SOME CLEARING AT ALL SITES, EXCEPT KMLU/KLFK. IN ADDITION TO THE  
CLOUD COVER, SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS, WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.  
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, BUT MAY LINGER AT  
KLFK/KMLU OVERNIGHT. MORE CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THE END  
OF THE TAF PERIOD, AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH INTO OUR  
SOUTHERN ZONES. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE AT KLFK/KMLU AGAIN. WINDS  
WILL RANGE FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO NNE BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KTS  
DURING THE PERIOD. /20/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
SHV 87 73 88 72 / 80 40 10 0  
MLU 89 72 85 70 / 70 60 60 20  
DEQ 85 66 88 63 / 50 10 0 0  
TXK 85 69 89 68 / 70 20 0 0  
ELD 85 67 84 66 / 70 50 20 0  
TYR 84 72 89 70 / 50 10 10 0  
GGG 83 72 88 69 / 70 20 10 0  
LFK 86 73 88 71 / 70 30 30 10  
 

 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...44  
LONG TERM....44  
AVIATION...20  
 
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