423
FXUS64 KSHV 221145
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
545 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY
AHEAD OF INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGH FRIDAY.
- RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE INCREASING MOISTURE AS THE COLD
ARCTIC AIRMASS SPILLS SOUTHWARD, ALLOWING FOR A TRANSITION TO A
WINTRY MIX SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.
- CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN A MULTI-DAY WINTER WEATHER
EVENT WITH IMPACTS EXTENDING ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION,
FOLLOWED BY EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
THE RAINFALL FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY HAS JUST ABOUT WRAPPED UP AS
WE HEAD INTO A FOGGY AND COOLER OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FOUR STATE
REGION. EXPECT FOR AREAS OF PATCHY FOG, INCLUDING SOME AREAS OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG AS WE HEAD THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL AGAIN APPROACH NEAR SEASONAL
VALUES FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY BEFORE THE INFLUENCE OF THE
HIGHLY ANTICIPATED ARCTIC AIRMASS WORKS SOUTH INTO THE WEEKEND.
FOR THE MOST PART, AND WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING THANKS RECENT
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUPPORT, DAYTIME FRIDAY IS TRENDING
DRIER WHEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. TO PUT INTO PERSPECTIVE,
PWAT VALUES FOR THE I-49 CORRIDOR DON'T COME CLOSE TO ONE INCH
UNTIL AT LEAST MIDNIGHT FRIDAY. THAT BEING SAID, CAN'T RULE A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN PUSH OF
MOISTURE CLOSER TO THE EVENING AND TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AS THE COLDER
AIRMASS BEGINS TO INTERCEPT THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC AND GULF
MOISTURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTH.
AS WE TURN OUR ATTENTION TO THE WEEKEND WINTER WEATHER EVENT, WE
MUST FIRST START WITH SOME CHANGES IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. FIRST,
ENSEMBLE PRESENTATION ACROSS AN ARRAY OF SOLUTIONS HAS FAVORED A
TUG NORTH WHEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL OUTPUT. THIS COMES FROM
A NOTABLE WEAKENING OF A PREVIOUSLY STRONGER SHORTWAVE KICK
FEATURE THAT WOULD ALLOW THE AFOREMENTIONED COLDER AIRMASS TO
SPILL FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE CONUS. IN RETURN, AND THIS IS
ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT FOR INTERESTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR, IS THAT THE ARRIVAL OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
CONTINUES TO DELAY FURTHER INTO THE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND THE
DAYBREAK TIMEFRAME VERSUS THE EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT SOLUTIONS
OF A FEW DAYS AGO. WHAT THIS COULD MEAN IS THAT THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIP TYPE TRANSITION MAY BE LATER, WITH THE CHANCE THAT SOME
AREAS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND PARISHES OF THE FA MAY
SEE VERY LITTLE IN THE FORM OF WINTER PRECIP IF, AND ONLY IF,
TRENDS CONTINUE DOWN THIS ROUTE.
FROM A FORECAST STANDPOINT, CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL OUTPUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY INCREASE AS RECON OF THE BAJA LOW FEATURE FROM THE 53RD
WRS OF THE USAF BOTH YESTERDAY AND LATER TODAY IS ASSIMILATED
INTO THE MODEL GUIDANCE. AT THE SAME TIME, RECON IN THE GULF LATER
TODAY VIA THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER TEAM WILL DO THE SAME. WHILE
THIS WON'T GIVE US THE MAGIC ANSWERS TO THE OUTCOME OF THIS EVENT,
THIS SHOULD HELP IMPROVE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE BY THIS TIME
TOMORROW. MEANWHILE, GIVEN THAT WE ARE NOW ENTERING THE MEDIUM PHASE
OF THE FORECAST, HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS THAT HAVE THE ABILITY
TO HANDLE THESE AIRMASSES, CAN OFTEN SHED LIGHT SOLUTIONS THAT
PROMOTE HIGHER CONFIDENCE.
IN THE MEANTIME, AND BUYING THAT THE CURRENT STATE OF THE
GUIDANCE WERE TO VERIFY, A SERIES OF MIXED WINTER PRECIP WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A CLASH OF FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET AS A WARM NOSE ALOFT WILL EXIST. WHAT DOES DEVELOP IS
PROGGED TO EXIT THE REGION SOMETIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH THERE
ARE SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (PRIMARILY OUTLIERS AT THIS TIME) THAT
SUGGEST A LATER DEPARTURE. THE WAKE OF THE PRECIP, A SERIES OF
BITTERLY COLD NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AS LOWS FALL
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS BY MONDAY MORNING, WITH A
SIMILAR APPEARANCE TUESDAY MORNING. WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO CLIMB
BACK ABOVE FREEZING AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOME, AND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY, WE SHOULD SEE SOME MELTING OF WHAT
MATERIALIZES HERE LOCALLY.
TODAY AND EARLY FRIDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAYS TO COMPLETE WINTER
WEATHER PREPARATIONS AHEAD OF THE ONSET OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
AND INTO SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY, IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE DAY.
RK
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
FOR THE 22/12Z TAF UPDATE...IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING TO
BECOME MVFR ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH TYR/GGG/LFK
EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR. MVFR CEILINGS TO AGAIN RETURN AFTER
23/00Z, BECOMING NEAR IFR TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OTHERWISE, NORTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 5 TO 8 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. /05/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. /53/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 57 43 50 28 / 0 20 30 80
MLU 55 43 49 27 / 10 20 20 50
DEQ 53 34 43 19 / 0 10 40 90
TXK 54 38 45 22 / 0 10 40 90
ELD 53 35 44 19 / 0 10 30 80
TYR 59 44 50 27 / 0 10 50 90
GGG 58 42 50 26 / 0 20 40 90
LFK 62 50 57 34 / 0 10 30 70
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR OKZ077.
TX...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...05
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