906
FXUS64 KSHV 230531
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1231 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2020
AVIATION
NO MAJOR DEVIATIONS FROM THE 23/00Z TAF DISCUSSION. I SIMPLY
CONTINUED MVFR OVER INTO THE NEXT SIX HOURS
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, QUIET EVENING WITH MVFR/IFR EXPECTED
FOR ALL BETWEEN MIDNIGHT FOR KLFK AND 09-1Z FOR OUR I-20
TERMINALS ALONG WITH VICINITY SHOWERS. SOME INITIALLY MAY BE FROM
MIDDECK AND AS S/SE WINDS VEER TO SW, POOLED MOISTURE WILL ALLOW
GREATER COVERAGE WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH
HEATING 16-24Z FROM W TO E KTYR TO KMLU. FROPA WILL SHIFT SW TO NW
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME HEALTHY GUSTS TO 25 FOR KTYR
ANYWAY. SFC WINDS MAY BACKDOOR NE WINDS INTO KELD/KMLU 21-24Z.
/44/
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 949 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2020/
UPDATE...
MODIFIED SOME LOWS AND HIGHS FOR TOMORROW AND RESTRUCTURED
POPS/WX FOR TONIGHT WHICH WAS A LITTLE FAST AND TOMORROW AS WELL.
/24/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2020/
SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT,
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AREA-WIDE ALONG WITH
SOME LOW CLOUDS NEAR DAYBREAK. HOWEVER, LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO
CHANGE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION OVERNIGHT,
AS AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THEN EVENTUALLY INTO OUR REGION. THE
TROUGH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH REGION ON FRIDAY. EXPECT A
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AREA-WIDE AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD THE BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS THE
CWA, BUT NOW IT APPEARS IT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BRING IN
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY
MORNING SHOULD FALL TO NEAR CLIMATIC NORMALS. /20/
LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
WEEKEND TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH WEAK
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMING ZONAL AND THEN SOUTHWEST AS THE
ATMOSPHERE TRANSITIONS INTO A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL
SHIFT EAST WITH LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING ON SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY TO RANGE FROM HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S
NORTH OF I20 TO THE LOW TO MID 70S SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SATURDAY
TO FALL INTO THE 50S. HOWEVER, BY SUNDAY, EXPECT MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
A COLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BRINGING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT SETS UP,
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S BEHIND THE FRONT
TO THE MID 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ADDITIONALLY, A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN A CONTINUED FETCH OF
MOISTURE WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE ARKLATEX. MOISTURE
ABOVE THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD POSTFRONTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS FURTHER,
BECOMING A CLOSED LOW MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND MOVES EAST,
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION BY LATE WEEK. /05/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 83 58 69 59 / 50 20 10 0
MLU 84 58 70 58 / 40 20 10 0
DEQ 71 51 61 54 / 70 10 0 0
TXK 76 53 62 55 / 70 20 10 0
ELD 80 53 65 54 / 50 20 10 0
TYR 73 51 67 58 / 60 20 0 0
GGG 79 53 68 57 / 50 20 0 0
LFK 85 56 75 61 / 30 20 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
05/20/24/44
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page