464
FXUS64 KSHV 240642
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
142 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
- UPSTREAM CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OZARKS WILL
HELP REINFORCE A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS
OF OUR REGION LATER TODAY.
- WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE
STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WITH AN EXPANDING SEVERE THREAT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
- THIS ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS THE
COLD FRONT STALLS AND RETREATS BACK NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
AS REFERENCED IN THE KEY MESSAGES ABOVE, A VERY ACTIVE STRETCH OF
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO UNFOLD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AFTER A
RATHER UNEVENTFUL START TO SPRING SEVERE SEASON UP TO THIS POINT.
STARTING TODAY, EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE NW LATER
THIS MORNING ALONG ONGOING UPSTREAM CONVECTION WHICH WILL ONLY
HELP TO REINFORCE THE FRONT SOUTHWARD. LOOKING ALOFT, AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE CONVECTION BY THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE SFC FRONT SHIFTS FARTHER SE INTO
OUR REGION. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT, CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AS IT ENTERS OUR NW ZONES ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-30 WITH ADDITIONAL SE PROGRESSION EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-20 THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SFC-BASED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND IF NOT EXCEED
3000+ J/KG WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL AVERAGE NEAR 8C/KM
LATER TODAY AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL SUPPORT
RAPID UPSCALE GROWTH OF THUNDERSTORMS, ALLOWING FOR A VERY BROAD
AREA OF POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE OZARKS WELL SOUTH INTO
OUR ENTIRE REGION FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MORE EXPANSIVE/PREDOMINANT
THREAT, ESPECIALLY WITH A LINEAR STORM MODE THAT APPEARS LIKELY
AND POSSIBLY COMING IN MULTIPLE WAVES AS INDICATED BY SEVERAL OF
THE HI-RES CAM SOLUTIONS. IN ADDITION, VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE GRADUALLY INCREASING DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR SUCH THAT INDIVIDUAL STORMS ARE LIKELY TO POSE A THREAT OF
LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR REGION (ROUGHLY ALONG/WEST OF I-49)
AS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. THE SEVERE
THREAT IS LIKELY TO EXTEND THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT, ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 BEFORE DIMINISHING AREAWIDE INTO THE WEE
HOURS OF SATURDAY MORNING.
AS WE MOVE LATER INTO SATURDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL INVOF
OF I-30 AND EVENTUALLY LIFT BACK NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
AS A RESULT, WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION WILL RESUME AREAWIDE
AND PROVIDE THE SET-UP FOR ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER AS
ANOTHER SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES SHIFT THROUGH THE W/SW
FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEKEND. AS THESE DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH AN
INCREASINGLY WARM AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT, EXPECT THE NEXT ROUND
OF SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR IN A SIMILAR TIMEFRAME BY LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF OUR REGION.
LIKE THE FIRST ROUND, EXPECT ALL SEVERE MODES TO BE IN PLAY WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
BEYOND SUNDAY, THE FORECAST STILL APPEARS VERY UNSETTLED AS THE
NEXT COLD FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE MUCH SOUTHWARD PROGRESS INTO
OUR REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO A STRONG AND
EXPANSIVE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE JUST TO OUR S/SW THAT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND MUCH OF THE WESTERN
GULF THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. COUPLED WITH AN INCREASINGLY
ACTIVE SW FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK ACROSS
OUR REGION, WE COULD BE IN STORE FOR REPEATED ROUNDS OF ADDITIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR NOW, THE FOCUS IS LARGELY
ON TODAY AND TONIGHT INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH AN EYE TO NEXT WEEK AS
WE CLOSE OUT WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE LAST WEEK OF APRIL.
/19/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
CEILINGS SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS ALL
TERMINAL LOCATIONS AND CANNOT RULE OUT IFR CEILINGS AT MAINLY THE
LFK TERMINAL THE CLOSER WE GET TO SUNRISE. REMOVED ALL MENTION OF
CONVECTION FROM THE TAFS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING WITH THE FIRST
TERMINALS TO SEE THIS POSSIBILITY BEING THE TXK AND ELD TERMINALS.
STILL MAY SEE CONVECTION PRIOR TO THIS OR NEAR SUNRISE ACROSS OUR
NORTHWEST AIRSPACE HOWEVER. PATTERNED THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE WITH A
BLEND OF HREF AND HRRR PROGS AS IT PERTAINS TO CONVECTION ACROSS S
AR GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE I-20 CORRIDOR TERMINALS
WHICH INCLUDES THE SHV AND MLU TERMINALS. FEEL LIKE THE TYR/GGG
TERMINALS WILL BEGIN TO SEE VCTS BY VERY LATE IN THE AFTN OR INTO
THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE LFK TERMINAL LIKELY NOT SEEING CONVECTION
UNTIL JUST BEYOND THIS 24HR TAF PACKAGE. MORNING MVFR CEILINGS
SHOULD GIVE WAY TO LOW VFR CEILINGS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION TODAY.
LOOK FOR SSE TO S WINDS SUSTAINED NEAR 08-12KT TOWARDS SUNRISE AND
CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH HIGHER GUSTS, ESPECIALLY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, AND MAY BE NECESSARY AT TIMES DURING THIS WEEKEND.
/20/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 84 66 86 68 / 50 60 20 50
MLU 86 66 85 67 / 70 70 30 40
DEQ 79 59 80 62 / 70 40 20 70
TXK 82 64 82 66 / 70 50 20 70
ELD 81 61 81 63 / 70 70 30 60
TYR 84 67 87 69 / 30 40 10 40
GGG 84 66 87 67 / 40 50 20 40
LFK 86 68 89 69 / 30 30 10 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...13
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