898
FXUS64 KSHV 061144
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
644 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
- STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MAKING SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS
SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION TODAY.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE REGION ON WED THRU WED EVENING.
- RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
UPCOMING MOTHER'S DAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
COLD FRONT AS OF MIDNIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR A FORT SMITH, AR,
IDABEL, OK TO SUPHUR SPRINGS AND TERRELL, TEXAS LINE AND CONTINUES
TO MAKE SLOW BUT STEADY PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST INTO OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES ATTM. CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT HAS BEEN HARD TO COME BY
THUS FAR BUT STILL CAN'T RULE AT LEAST SOME WIDELY SCATTERED STORM
COVERAGE THROUGH SUNRISE AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO MORE OF NE TX
AND SW AR. AS WE GO THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS TODAY, WE SHOULD SEE STORM INTENSITY AND COVERAGE INCREASE,
NOT ONLY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT ALSO IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN STEEP IN THE COOLER
AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN ELEVATED HAIL
THREAT BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, A LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT WILL EXIST. AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUGGEST ORGANIZED,
DISCRETE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON WED. LOOKING LIKE THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END ACROSS OUR EASTERN HALF DURING THE
EVENING ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE RAINFALL TAPERING OFF ACROSS OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST PARISHES DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS WED NIGHT/THU MORNING.
WITH THE EJECTION OF THE WEAK, UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTH AND EAST
WED NIGHT/EARLY THU, WE ARE LEFT WITH MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW THU INTO
THU NIGHT. WHILE WE WILL KEEP POST FRONTAL SFC FLOW ACROSS OUR
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THU NIGHT, ISENTROPIC FORCING COULD RESULT
IN SOME RETURNING SHOWERS THU AFTN BUT ESPECIALLY THU NIGHT
ACROSS MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY AS WE BEGIN TO SEE SFC FLOW TURNING BACK AROUND TO THE
SOUTH WITH A RETURN TO HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND THEREFORE, GREATER
INSTABILITY.
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WE WILL BEGIN WATCHING A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVE OUT OF THE TX HILL COUNTRY AND INTO THE LOWER RED
AND MISS VALLEY. THIS TROUGH SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OUR REGION FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TIMING OF THE TROUGH
EJECTION ACROSS OUR REGION COULD RESULT IN A LITTLE LESS POP THAN
WE ARE ADVERTISING ON MOTHER'S DAY SO THIS WILL CONTINUED TO BE
MONITORED AS THE WEEKEND NEARS.
TO BEGIN THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK, THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISS
VALLEY SHOULD BE IN A RELATIVE WNW TO NW FLOW ALOFT AND WHILE WE
ARE APPROACHING THE CLIMATOLOGICAL TIME OF THE YEAR WHEN THIS FLOW
COULD BECOME CONCERNING, THIS FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
13
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
FOR THE 06/12Z TAF PERIOD, MVFR CIGS HAVE LARGELY OVERSPREAD MOST
OF OUR TERMINALS WITH LOW STRATUS EVENTUALLY SPREADING ACROSS ALL
OF OUR AIRSPACE THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ADVANCE SE INTO THE REGION WITH AN
UPTICK IN CONVECTION EXPECTED AS LATER TODAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. PRECISE TIMING AND PLACEMENT
OF THIS CONVECTION PRECLUDES PREVAILING TSRA SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN MOSTLY VCSH/VCTS FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER CLARITY COMES WITH
FUTURE TAF CYCLES. OTHERWISE, WILL RELY ON AMENDMENTS AS NEEDED
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING IF ANY CONVECTION THREATENS OUR NORTHERN
TERMINALS CLOSER TO THE FRONT. EXPECT POST-FRONTAL CIGS TO DROP
EVEN FURTHER TO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR AT TIMES THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. BREEZY S/SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY VEER
N/NE FOLLOWING FROPA WITH SPEEDS RANGING BETWEEN 5-10 KTS.
/19/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ANY REPORTS OF HAZARDOUS
WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE APPRECIATED.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 79 57 73 57 / 50 40 0 10
MLU 84 58 74 57 / 60 60 0 10
DEQ 68 50 73 48 / 70 20 0 0
TXK 70 54 73 54 / 70 40 0 0
ELD 71 51 73 51 / 70 40 0 0
TYR 75 58 72 57 / 40 20 0 10
GGG 77 57 72 57 / 50 40 0 10
LFK 85 63 73 61 / 60 40 10 30
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...19
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