695
FXUS64 KSHV 270011 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
711 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
- DESPITE A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, WEAK FORCING AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.
- OVERNIGHT WE WILL BE WATCHING A DISTURBANCE MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY HAVING AN IMPACT ON AT LEAST OUR WESTERN HALF LATE
TONIGHT.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AT LEAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WITH MAYBE A
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A REDUCTION IN STORM COVERAGE BY THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
PWAT AXIS THAT WAS SITUATED ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES THIS
TIME ON MEMORIAL DAY HAS SINCE SHIFTED WESTWARD AND WAS ORIENTED
FROM NE AR INTO THE HEART OF N LA INTO FAR SE TX AND SW LA.
DESPITE A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTH THIS MORNING,
UPPER FORCING STILL EXISTS AND COINCIDES WITH THIS HIGHER MOISTURE
AXIS. MIX IN A LITTLE SURFACE HEATING AND YOU HAVE THE PERFECT
INGREDIENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND THAT IS
EXACTLY WHAT WE ARE SEEING CURRENTLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
WHILE THIS CONVECTION IS MOSTLY TIED TO DAYTIME HEATING, WITH THE
LOSS OF THIS HEATING LATER THIS EVENING, WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WANE. IT'S THEN WHEN WE CALL OUR
ATTENTION TO A DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO MOVE OUR WAY FROM THE WEST
LATER TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATER DAY WILL CONTINUE DIVING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN BUT IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE, A
SUBTLE BUT POTENT SPOKE OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TX
HILL COUNTRY. VARIOUS HIGH RES PROGS AND CAMS ARE LATCHING ONTO
THIS CONVECTION AND ADVANCING IT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT (ALBEIT IN A
WEAKENED STATE). LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS
APPROACHING OUR WESTERN MOST ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT, CONTINUING TO
WEAKEN ALONG ITS NORTHWARD FLANK OR NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR BUT CONTINUING TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST MODERATE INTENSITY
NEAR BUT ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS IT MOVES INTO
DEEP EAST TEXAS/SE TEXAS TOWARDS SUNRISE WED MORNING. IF THIS
SCENARIO PANS OUT, WOULD EXPECT THIS COMPLEX TO CONTINUE MOVING
EASTWARD POST SUNRISE WED MORNING WITH NEW DAYTIME CONVECTION
HAVING TO RELY ON DAYTIME HEATING AND ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THE MORNING CONVECTION LEAVES US WITH. THUS FOR THIS FORECAST,
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST
HALF THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY ON WED, TRIMMING POPS BACK TO
CHANCE VARIETY DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY THU AND INTO FRI, THE
ABOVE MENTIONED SPOKE OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH AND
BECOMES RATHER STATIONARY WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING PRESENT FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE TENN VALLEY. THERE STILL SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE BUT THE MAJORITY OF FORCING WILL BE ACROSS OUR
NORTH AND NORTHEAST MOST ZONES THU INTO FRI. HAVE THEREFORE
TAPERED POPS ACCORDINGLY TO GET US THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK.
BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST BUT IT'S WHAT WE LIKE TO CALL A DIRTY RIDGE
AS THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF FORCING COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
TO RESULT IN AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION BOTH SAT AND SUN.
EARLY NEXT WEEK BECOMES VERY UNCERTAIN AS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY APPEARS TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER TROUGHING WITH
A DEVELOPING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IF THIS PATTERN DEVELOPS, OUR REGION
WILL BE BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES WHICH WOULD AT THE VERY LEAST
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION TO BEGIN THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
13
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 711 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING THROUGH A PORTION OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, AS THE SCATTERED CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/SW AR/I-20 CORRIDOR OF N LA
CONTINUES TO DIMINISH BY MID-EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. AC/CIRRUS CIGS FROM THIS CONVECTION WILL ALSO LINGER
THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE THINNING, ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL CIRRUS
FROM A MCS OVER WCNTRL AND SW TX WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NE INTO THE
REGION BY EARLY TO MID-EVENING AS THIS COMPLEX MARCHES E. THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH AS IT ENTERS E TX
AFTER 08Z WEDNESDAY, JUST AS LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS BEGIN TO DEVELOP
AND SPREAD N INTO E TX/N LA. HAVE MAINTAINED VCTS FOR THE E TX
TERMINALS BETWEEN 09-11Z, WITH CONTINUED MENTION FOR THE REMAINING
SW AR/N LA TERMINALS BY/AFTER 12Z. MVFR CIGS, REDUCED VSBYS, AND
WIND GUSTS TO 30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS IS EXPECTED FROM W TO E BY MID/LATE
MORNING AS VFR CIGS RETURN WITH THE -RA FALLING OUT OF LOW AC
CIGS. PATCHY FG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP PRIOR TO DAYBREAK AT MLU/ELD
BEFORE THE CONVECTION ARRIVES, WITH THE LOWER CIGS EXPECTED TO
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY HERE AS THE CONVECTION PERSISTS. THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E ACROSS E TX DURING
THE AFTERNOON. LT/VRB WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME S 5-8KTS AFTER
14Z. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
CAN'T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SPOTTER ACTIVATION BECOMING
NECESSARY LATE TONIGHT DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AS A COMPLEX OF
STRONG STORMS MOVES OUR WAY FROM CENTRAL TEXAS, OTHERWISE THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST THRU THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 70 83 69 85 / 40 60 30 40
MLU 70 84 70 86 / 30 50 30 60
DEQ 66 83 66 83 / 30 50 30 60
TXK 68 83 68 85 / 30 50 30 60
ELD 67 83 67 84 / 30 50 30 60
TYR 70 83 69 86 / 60 60 30 40
GGG 70 83 68 86 / 60 60 30 40
LFK 70 83 69 88 / 60 70 30 40
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...15
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