585
FXUS64 KSHV 241220
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
620 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1002 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
- THE "POTENTIAL" IS THERE FOR A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK LATER
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS
OF THE FOUR STATE REGION.
- IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, EXCESSIVE, HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FOUR
STATE REGION AS WELL.
- COLDER AIR STILL POISED TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THANKSGIVING DAY BUT TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE BY THE
WEEKEND ALONG WITH OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1002 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FOUR
STATE REGION IN ADVANCE OF VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY EJECTING OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION OF THE COUNTRY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LINING UP ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY INTO THE
UPPER RED RIVER VALLEY OF CENTRAL AND SW OK AND IT'S THIS UPPER
LEVEL FORCING IN ADVANCE OF THE FILLING, EJECTING UPPER TROUGH
THAT WILL MOVE OUR WAY DURING THE DAY TODAY BRINGING WITH IT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH WILL COULD
PRODUCE EXCESSIVE, HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER.
MADE THE DECISION THIS EVENING TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH, VALID FROM
6AM MONDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF NE TX, MCCURTAIN COUNTY IN SE OK AS WELL AS MOST
OF SW AR. THIS IS DUE IN PART TO SOME NEW HIGH RES GUIDANCE
COMING IN WHICH SUGGESTS MORE OF THIS REGION SEEING NEAR 3 INCHES
STORM TOTALS OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER COMPARED TO WHAT PROGS WERE
INDICATING THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. THE AREA OF THE FLOOD WATCH WAS
BASED ON WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED LATE LAST WEEK WITH
OUR LAST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. 1-3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
WITH THIS TROUGH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT COULD HAVE MORE IMPACTS DUE
TO WETTER SOILS ACROSS THE FLOOD WATCH AREA COMPARED TO POCKETS
OF 1-3 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR WHERE MUCH LESS TO NO RAIN HAS FALLEN THROUGH THE MONTH
OF NOVEMBER.
NOT TO BE FORGOTTEN AND WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A MORE IMPACTFUL
OUTCOME FROM THIS TROUGH WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS
THIS MORNING OVERSPREADING NE TX, SE OK AND SW AR WILL LIKELY BE
ELEVATED AND COULD POSE A LARGE HAIL THREAT BUT THE WINDOW WILL
OPEN FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF SURFACE BASED STORMS PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME
AND AFTERNOON HEATING ALONG AND SOUTH OF A RETURNING WARM FRONT.
THIS WARM FRONT WILL BE DELEGATED TO SE TX AND SW LA NEAR SUNRISE
IN THE MORNING WITH THIS FEATURE FORECAST TO SURGE NORTHWARD INTO
OUR REGION BY AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF 60-65 DEGREE DEWPOINTS AS
FAR NORTH AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR INTO NE TX AND N LA AND MAYBE S AR
BY EARLY EVENING. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THIS BOUNDARY MOVES WILL BE
PIVOTAL TO THE EXTENT OF THE WARM SECTOR FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT
BECAUSE IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL
AND BULK SHEAR FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD
PRODUCE TORNADOES (SOME STRONG) ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM DEEP EAST
TEXAS INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA. ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVENTUALLY BE OVERTAKEN BY A BROKEN LINE OF
CONVECTION SWEEPING EASTWARD OUT OF NE TX THAT TOO COULD POSE A
BRIEF, WEAKER TORNADO THREAT BUT MORE LIKELY A WIND THREAT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS LINE OF
CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE EAST OF DEEP EAST TEXAS NEAR OR SHORTLY
BEFORE MIDNIGHT, AND EAST OF THE REMAINDER OF NE TX, SE OK, SW AR
AND EXTREME NW LA BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
LIKELY CONTINUING FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NE LA BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 3AM.
COLD FRONT IN THE WAKE OF THIS CONVECTION STILL POISED TO ENTER
OUR REGION LATE TUE NIGHT AND SHOULD HAVE PUSHED THROUGH OUR
ENTIRE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE DROP FROM
TUE TO WED WITH HIGHS ON WED RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S
AND WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES WED NIGHT
AND THU NIGHT BEFORE WE BEGIN TO SEE SOME AIRMASS RECOVERY BY
FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES RETURNING.
13
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST MON NOV 24 2025
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, PACIFIC UPPER LOW MOVING OVER KN/OK
THIS AM WITH A LINE OF HEAVY ELEVATED TS ROLLING DOWN THE RED
RIVER AT 40KTS, EXTENDING S TO KTRL. KDAL GUSTED TO 34KT EARLIER
AND MORE FOR US ALONG WITH SOME PEA TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL. ALL
SITES WILL SEE TS ACTIVITY SHIFT ACROSS OUR AREA WITH GUSTY WIND
AND RESTRICTIONS BRIEFLY. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE BY TONIGHT
SWEEPING CONVECTION EASTWARD. THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO
NW MID TO LATE TUESDAY AM. /24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1002 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 74 60 74 49 / 90 90 10 0
MLU 77 64 76 51 / 70 90 30 10
DEQ 61 49 67 38 / 100 50 0 0
TXK 66 56 69 44 / 100 80 0 0
ELD 67 56 70 43 / 90 90 10 0
TYR 73 54 70 45 / 90 60 0 0
GGG 75 55 71 44 / 90 80 0 0
LFK 80 59 77 48 / 90 90 10 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070-071.
LA...NONE.
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...24
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