823
FXUS64 KSHV 082128
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
328 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
- WARMER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK.
- A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PROVIDE RAIN CHANCES TO MUCH OF THE
REGION TUE NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN IMPACTING OUR REGION THU
NIGHT WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES SLATED FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
A QUASI NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE REGION
TODAY, AS THE RECENT RIDGE FLATTEN OUT. A LEAD SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE FLOW IN OUR NORTHERN
ZONES AHEAD OF A VERY WEAK COOL FRONT. WE HAVE SEEN SOME RETURNS
ON RADAR WITH THIS DISTURBANCE, BUT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE ARE SO DRY, THE PRECIPITATION IS EVAPORATING BEFORE
REACHING THE SURFACE. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS SEEN
A RETURN OF WARMER CONDITIONS TODAY, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 80S. THE AFOREMENTIONED
COOL FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. IT SHOULD
REMAIN STALL NEAR THE LOUISIANA ARKANSAS STATE LINE, AND OVER
ACROSS ADJACENT NORTHEAST TEXAS, BEFORE WASHING OUT NEAR DAYBREAK.
SHORT-TERM PROGS ARE SUGGESTING SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP NEAR THIS
BOUNDARY AROUND DAYBREAK, AND IT COULD BE DENSE AT TIMES. THESE
SAME PROGS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING SOME ADVECTION FOG WILL DEVELOP AND
PUSH INTO THE AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 DURING THE SAME
TIMEFRAME. THIS FOG COULD ALSO BE DENSE AT TIMES, WHICH COULD
RESULT IN A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. UPPER RIDGING WILL RE-ESTABLISH
ITSELF OVER REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THE UPPER PATTERN WILL START TO SHIFT, AS A
CLOSE UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO INTO TEXAS,
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION AND FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES ALONG THE FLOW TOWARDS OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, I
THINK WE SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT IN PLACE FOR SOME
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DRY, AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY THURSDAY, BUT, A
STRONGER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL WELCOMED RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. /20/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
FOR THE 08/18Z TAF UPDATE, VFR VIS/CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE DUE TO FG
REDEVELOPMENT BY 09/09-15Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 5-10 KTS. /16/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 55 79 59 77 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 53 77 57 76 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 42 76 53 76 / 0 0 0 10
TXK 51 79 60 78 / 0 0 0 10
ELD 49 77 56 75 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 55 80 60 77 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 53 80 58 77 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 55 79 58 77 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...16
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