511
FXUS64 KSHV 051146
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
646 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
- ANOTHER WARM DAY IS IN STORE, WITH HIGHS TAKING AIM AT THE 80S
AND MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER ACROSS OUR NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR
THIS EVENING, CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE, PRODUCING TORNADOES, WIND GUSTS, AND DAMAGING
LARGE HAIL.
- RAINFALL CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK, WITH MORE MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT AND SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL SOUTH OF I-20 ON WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
PREVAILING UPPER LEVEL STEERING IS ORIENTED AROUND A RIDGE OVER THE
GULF, WHICH IS KEEPING SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE, SUPPLYING AMPLE
MOISTURE FOR THIS WEEK'S DISTURBANCES TO WORK WITH. THE FIRST WILL
ARRIVE BY THIS EVENING, AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY SWEEPS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE ARKLATEX. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST ZONES OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING, BUT THE
MAIN CHANCE FOR STORMS DOES NOT SPREAD SOUTH TOWARDS THE I-30
CORRIDOR UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. STORMS LOOK TO LARGELY KEEP TO THE
NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE NIGHT. A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF
THE REGION TONIGHT. TORNADOES, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND ESPECIALLY
LARGE DAMAGING HAIL WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
SHORT-RANGE HI-RES MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING TO SHOW A CONSISTENT
PATTERN OF TIMING AND STRUCTURE FOR TONIGHT'S ROUND OF SEVERE
WEATHER, BUT THE CONSENSUS INDICATES STORMS ARRIVING OUT OF SOUTH
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET AND PASSING FROM
WEST TO EAST IF DISCRETE, OR NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IF MORE LINEAR
IN NATURE, WITH SCATTERED LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE EVENT, REINFORCED BY ADDITIONAL WAVES OF MOISTURE RIDING
ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE DAY TOMORROW.
WHILE OUR SURFACE BOUNDARY LINGERS, REMAINING DRAPED ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX, SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY ACROSS
APPROXIMATELY THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE REGION. THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WITH NEARLY AREAWIDE SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY
INTO FRIDAY FOR ZONES ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-84, AFTER WHICH THE
WEEKEND LOOKS TO GET OFF TO A DRY START, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS ARRIVING SUNDAY OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DRIVING FACTOR BEHIND
THE TIMING OF THESE WAVES OF STORMS IS A LARGE TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING, WHICH LOOKS TO
SWING SOUTH AND THEN NORTHEAST, OPENING UP INTO A TROUGH WHICH GETS
ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BY MIDWEEK, WHILE A NEW LOW
REBUILDS TO THE SOUTH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, AND EVENTUALLY
PROPAGATES EASTWARD, REACHING THE ARKLATEX AND SWEEPING OUR SURFACE
BOUNDARY EAST WITH IT BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PUT A DENT IN OUR WARMING
TREND, WITH TODAY'S HIGHS IN THE 80S BEING CUT DOWN TO THE 70S
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY AND AREAWIDE BY THURSDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL RETURN TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY NEXT
WEEKEND. LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S BEHIND THE FRONT, LIKEWISE QUICKLY REBOUNDING TO
THE 60S.
/26/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
FOR THE 05/12Z TAF PERIOD, MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO EXPAND THIS
MORNING AS ABUNDANT LOW STRATUS SURGES NORTHWARD. THEREFORE, LOOK
FOR THESE MVFR CIGS TO EVENTUALLY OVERTAKE ALL OF OUR TERMINALS
WITH THE SUPPORT OF A PERSISTENTLY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME.
WITH THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM SFC LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE PLAINS, WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 12-18 KTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 20-30 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE DECREASING
SLIGHTLY AFTER 06/00Z. A COLD FRONT STILL TO OUR NORTH WILL BEGIN
TO APPROACH LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH VCTS POSSIBLE AT KTXK CLOSER
TO 06/03Z WHILE REMAINING SITES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SEE CONVECTION
UNTIL BEYOND THIS 12Z TAF PERIOD. MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT AND
IMPROVE INTO THE LOW VFR RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MAINTAIN
THAT THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE DROPPING ONCE AGAIN TO MVFR/IFR
OVERNIGHT.
/19/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS EVENING FOR
AREAS NORTH OF I-20. EVEN IF ACTIVATION IS NOT LOCALLY REQUESTED,
ANY REPORTS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
ARE APPRECIATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 86 72 81 59 / 0 10 80 60
MLU 85 71 85 59 / 10 10 90 90
DEQ 83 60 70 50 / 20 50 60 20
TXK 87 68 74 55 / 10 40 70 40
ELD 85 66 76 52 / 10 40 90 60
TYR 86 71 78 57 / 10 20 60 30
GGG 87 71 80 57 / 10 20 70 50
LFK 86 72 85 63 / 0 0 70 60
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...19
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