324
FXUS64 KSHV 282016
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
216 PM CST MON NOV 28 2022
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CST MON NOV 28 2022
AS OF THE 1730Z UPDATE, THE SPC CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE MAJORITY
OF THE ARKLATEX IN THE DAY 2 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK, FROM A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1/5) WEST INCLUDING TEXARKANA, LONGVIEW AND TYLER, A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE REGION, INCLUDING
SHREVEPORT, NATCHITOCHES AND LUFKIN, AND AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL
3/5) EAST, INCLUDING EL DORADO, RUSTON AND MONROE.
THE LATEST HI-RES MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THAT PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES AS EARLY AS 12Z, WITH A FEW PREDAWN
RUMBLES OF THUNDER NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION, HOWEVER, DOES NOT LOOK TO LIGHT UP UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON
OR LATE MORNING AT THE EARLIEST, BEGINNING TO DIMINISH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES ITS APPROACH.
BASED ON PROJECTED LAPSE RATES, THE FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE ELEVATED IN NATURE, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST, AND WILL POSE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR HAIL DURING THIS EVENT.
AS THE EVENT CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, THE CONVECTION
WILL BECOME MORE SURFACED BASED, AND IT WILL BE THIS PHASE OF THE
EVENT WHICH POSES THE GREATEST RISK FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERNMOST ZONES OF THE ARKLATEX, INCLUDING
RUSTON AND MONROE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ALL AREAS HIGHLIGHTED IN
THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK HAVE A NONZERO TORNADO RISK FOR TOMORROW.
THE PROBABILISTIC WIND THREAT HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY REDUCED IN INTENSITY
IN THE LATEST UPDATE, WITH THE GREATEST RISK REMAINING ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES. FLOODING DOES NOT LOOK TO POSE A WIDESPREAD HAZARD
WITH THIS EVENT, BASED ON THE PROJECTED FORWARD SPEED OF THE SYSTEM.
FAIRLY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE IN STORE, RANGING FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 40S NORTH TO MID TO UPPER 50S SOUTH, WHERE RETURNING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL SERVE TO PROVIDE INSULATING
EFFECTS. WITH THE ARKLATEX DEEP WITHIN THE LARGE WARM SECTOR AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, TOMORROW'S HIGHS LOOK TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S AREAWIDE,
RANGING FROM LOWER 70S NORTH AND EAST TO UPPER 70S SOUTH AND WEST.
IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY'S COLD FRONT, LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL DROP PRECIPITOUSLY, WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION FUNNELING
IN MIDDLE 30S NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR. DEPENDING ON THE POSITION
OF THE BOUNDARY BY DAYBREAK, A CONSIDERABLE TEMPERATURE RANGE LOOKS
TO BE IN PLACE, WITH NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA FALLING ONLY INTO THE
LOWER 50S BY COMPARISON.
/26/
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CST MON NOV 28 2022
STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE WAKE OF INTENSE CONVECTION TUESDAY EVENING
WILL HAVE PUSHED ALMOST COMPLETELY THROUGH OUR REGION BY SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY MORNING, TAKING ANY LINGERING RAIN CHANCES WITH IT. THIS
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS HAS SOME COLD AIR BEHIND IT WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN THOSE
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. AS A RESULT, WE ARE LOOKING AT THE POSSIBILITY
OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES WED NIGHT, MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-
20 CORRIDOR.
BEYOND THE CHILLY DAY/NIGHT WED/WED NIGHT, A WARMING TREND WILL
COMMENCE ACROSS OUR REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK. SFC RIDGING SHIFTS
EAST OF OUR REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, ALLOWING FOR RETURNING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND A DESCENT WARMUP. THIS WARMUP THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK WILL BE DUE IN PART TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND IT WILL HELP TO INCREASE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
REGION AS WELL. WHILE A RELATIVELY ZONAL OR WSW FLOW ALOFT WILL
COMMENCE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR LATE THURSDAY AND THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL
GENERATE ENOUGH FORCING ALOFT FOR SMALL RAIN CHANCES AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR.
ONE OF THESE WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL HAVE A WEAK COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH IT THAT WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO OUR REGION LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. STAYED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE CONCERNING THIS WEAK SURFACE FEATURE BUT WINDS QUICKLY COME
BACK AROUND TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT THE SURFACE FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AND WE PLAY THE WHOLE SMALL CHANCE POPS GAME AGAIN ACROSS AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF OUR REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.
13
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST MON NOV 28 2022
FOR THE 28/18Z TAFS, FOG HAS GIVEN WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH SKC
AT AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ON SOUTHERLY FLOW
FUNNELING A RETURN OF MOISTURE TO AREA AIRSPACE. CONDITIONS WILL
RABIDLY DETERIORATE BY 29/12Z, CONSISTENT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG, AS WELL AS THE EARLY ARRIVAL OF PRECIP, PARTICULARLY
IMPACTING SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TERMINALS, BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD
THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME AND REMAIN SOUTHERLY
THROUGHOUT, INCREASING IN SPEED TOMORROW MORNING TO 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
/26/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 55 76 44 56 / 20 50 10 0
MLU 51 75 48 58 / 0 70 60 0
DEQ 47 73 35 54 / 10 30 0 0
TXK 53 74 40 54 / 10 50 0 0
ELD 49 71 40 53 / 10 50 20 0
TYR 56 77 42 55 / 20 30 0 0
GGG 54 76 42 55 / 20 40 10 0
LFK 55 79 46 60 / 20 40 10 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...26
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