443
FXUS64 KSHV 310524 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1124 PM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 943 PM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
60'S AND 70'S THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE SLIM THROUGH MUCH OF THE 7 DAY PERIOD, RESULTING
IN GROWING CONCERNS CENTERED AROUND DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 943 PM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
CLEAR SKIES WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THESE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEK AND ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO GRADUALLY
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD FOLLOW AND BE SAFELY ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE 40S AND 50S. MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO SLOWLY BRING SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE REGION THAT HAS BEEN NOTICEABLY ABSENT IN THE
CURRENT AIRMASS. FOR NOW, THE PUBLIC SHOULD TAKE CAUTION WHILE
BURNING OUTDOORS AND MONITOR LOCAL NEWS FOR GUIDANCE OR BURN
RESTRICTIONS. AT THE TIME OF WRITING, NATCHITOCHES PARISH IN LA
AND BOWIE COUNTY IN TX ARE THE ONLY AREAS IN THE REGION UNDER A
BURN BAN.
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS BENIGN ALL THROUGH THIS WEEK, WHICH WOULD
KEEP THINGS DRY EVEN IF THERE WAS AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
HOWEVER, MODELS HAVE INTRODUCED A DISTURBANCE THAT WOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. ASSUMING THERE
IS ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO WORK WITH, THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RECENT
MODEL RUNS ARE KEEPING THE BULK OF THE RAIN CHANCES TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE ARK-LA-TX ON FRIDAY, BUT SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF
RAIN ON THE EDGES OF OUR FORECAST AREA CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON COULD ALSO GET KNOCKED BACK A
TAD AS A COOLER AIRMASS FILLS IN FROM THE WEST.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
AND START OUR WARMING TREND OVER AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENT
ESTIMATES FROM THE NBM HAVE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
STAYING IN THE 70S WITH RELATIVELY HIGHER RH VALUES THAN WE ARE
CURRENTLY SEEING. WITH NO MAJOR PATTERN CHANGES ON THE HORIZON,
PEOPLE SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND
INCREASED FIRE CONCERNS.
57
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 31/06Z TAF PERIOD. ASIDE
FROM SOME THIN CIRRUS WHICH MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF SW AR
AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER 12Z BEFORE DISSIPATING, SKC WILL PREVAIL.
LIGHT SW OR LT/VRB WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME WSW 5-8KTS AFTER 15Z.
/15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 32 65 42 69 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 30 61 39 67 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 26 60 32 63 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 32 62 39 67 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 28 60 36 65 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 34 64 42 69 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 31 64 40 69 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 30 64 39 69 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...15
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