386
FXUS64 KSHV 121149 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
549 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
- WARMER S/SW WINDS WILL VERY SLOWLY INCREASE OUR HUMIDITY THIS
WEEK, INCREASING BACK TO RAIN PRODUCING LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- AIR TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM BACK TO ABOVE AVERAGE ON
LOWS EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH 50S AND 60S BY THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ARE
THERE ALREADY AND ARE SOON TO BE BACK IN THE 80S FOR DAYS.
- DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN OUR SHORT TERM DROUGHT
CONDITIONS, BUT PROLONGED NEEDED RAINFALL ARRIVES NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
WE HAVE CLEAR SKIES AND SOME FANTASTIC VIEWS/PICS OF THE AURORA
BOREALIS WITH A GOOD INVERSION UP HIGH AT 3.5KFT. MAY BE
REFRACTING SOME OF THE SHOW AND COULD BE GOOD AGAIN TONIGHT. OUR
TEMPS HAVE FALLEN BELOW SOME FORECAST LOWS, SO THE GRID IS UPDATE
AS ARE THE ZONES IN OUR "REST OF TONIGHT" LEAD. WE WILL SEE
GUIDANCE GET BACK TO NORMAL WITH THE INCREASING HUMIDITY. THIS
WILL ALSO HELP QUELL OUR WILDFIRE DANGER IN THE COMING DAYS, BUT
NOT FULLY UNTIL THE WEEKEND. WE ARE LOOKING AT S/SW WINDS TODAY AT
A GOOD PACE, BUT BASICALLY STILL RECIRCULATING MODIFIED
CONTINENTAL AIR FOR YESTERDAY AND SOME OF TODAY. THE AIR WILL
MOISTEN ON THE SURFACE AND IN EARNEST IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT,
EVENTUALLY.
THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING THE TREND OF SLOW TO GO ON THE OFFSHORE
LOW NEARING THE WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND. UNTIL THEN, WE WILL
CONTINUE TO WAIT AS A NARROW AIR MASS DROPS IN AND SLOWS IT DOWN
THIS WEEKEND. A 1030MB SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN
CANADA, BUT EXTEND DOWN THE MS RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY. WE COULD SEE
SOME SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THIS AIR MASS EVENTUALLY BACKDOORS
CLOSER. HOWEVER, THE WEST COAST UPPER LOW WILL HAVE WHEELS BEHIND
THAT NARROW HIGH AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE
BY THEN, ALLOWING THE LOW TO DIG BETTER PACIFIC MOISTURE ON SW
FLOW COMING OUR WAY WITH A REALLY GOOD CHANCE FOR RAINFALL BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /24/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 549 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 12/12Z TAF PERIOD. A
SCATTERED CU FIELD IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/GRADUALLY SPREAD NE
ACROSS LOWER E TX/N LA S OF I-20 THIS MORNING, BEFORE SPREADING
FARTHER N ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
CIRRUS CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING, BEFORE QUICKLY EXITING THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
WHILE CU CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS DEEP E TX/CNTRL LA, THESE CIGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT LATE IN
THE DAY, BUT PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
SOME CU CIGS MAY REDEVELOP LATE ACROSS THE REGION, LINGERING
BEYOND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
SCATTERING OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON. SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
8-12KTS LATER THIS MORNING, BEFORE BECOMING S AND DIMINISHING TO
5KTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST TUES NOV 11 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 78 57 80 60 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 76 54 79 56 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 72 46 77 55 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 75 53 80 59 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 73 49 76 55 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 77 57 81 60 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 78 54 81 57 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 79 55 81 57 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...15
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