384
FXUS64 KSHV 091445
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
845 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY
WITH SOME SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 842 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS EAST TEXAS, GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-20,
HAVE SHOWN DECREASED VISIBILITY DOWN TO ONE QUARTER MILE THIS
MORNING. THE SAME HAS BEEN SEEN ACROSS OUR LOUISIANA PARISHES AND
SOME OF SOUTH WEST ARKANSAS. BECAUSE OF THIS, WE HAVE ELECTED TO
ISSUED A SHORT FUSE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 11:00 AM THIS
MORNING. DENSE FOG WILL BE PATCHY IN NATURE, WHICH COULD BE MORE
DANGEROUS THAN A MORE WIDESPREAD FOG EVENT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
SUDDEN ONSET. /33/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTHEAST TEXAS HAS SERVED AS A SOURCE FOR LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX THIS EVENING. IN THE WARM SECTOR
EAST OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS, SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTH. HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANY
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO MAINLY NORTH LOUISIANA AND SOUTH ARKANSAS AS
CONVERGENCE INCREASES ACROSS THIS AREA AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD
DRIFTING SURFACE BOUNDARY. PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS NEAR DAYBREAK.
A SURFACE LOW ACROSS TEXAS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND TRANSLATE
EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX ON
FRIDAY. HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LONG-WAVE
TROUGH WILL HELP TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES THEREBY INCREASING
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING FOR SOME STORMS TO
INTENSIFY RAPIDLY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING. A
MOISTURE RICH LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH SOME DEGREE OF SHEAR AND
INCREASED INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND, TORNADO AND
HAIL THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS, AND NORTH LOUISIANA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING CONVECTION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTY
NORTH WINDS EXPECTED. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ADVECT SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ONLY CLIMBING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S AREAWIDE. THE COLDEST
NIGHT, SUNDAY NIGHT, COULD SEE LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES EASING UPWARD INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S BY TUESDAY. HOWEVER, A REINFORCING COOL AIRMASS WILL
BRING LOW TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S BY THURSDAY MORNING.
/05/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
VERY ACTIVE TAF PERIOD WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF A COLD FRONT,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (SOME OF WHICH WILL LIKELY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE) AND A PLETHORA OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES. TO START THE PERIOD,
WE ARE LOOKING AT SOME IN AND OUT VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT THE
TYR/GGG/TXK AND ELD TERMINALS BUT AT THE LFK/SHV AND MLU
TERMINALS, VSBY IS NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN BUT WE ARE DEALING WITH
IN AND OUT MVFR/VFR CEILINGS. THINK CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATE MORNING AT THE EARLIEST AND INCREASE SOUTH OF THE I-20
TERMINAL IMPACTING THE LFK TERMINAL FIRST WITH A TREND FOR THIS
CONVECTION TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING, IMPACTING OUR REMAINING TERMINALS. EVENTUALLY, A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OUR AIRSPACE FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH THE
CONVECTION ENDING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL THINK WE WILL SEE SOME
LOW IFR CEILINGS WITH POST FROPA LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH A WIND
SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER
MAY BE POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 73 51 58 39 / 60 80 10 0
MLU 75 56 63 39 / 70 90 20 0
DEQ 68 40 55 31 / 20 30 0 0
TXK 70 47 57 35 / 40 60 0 0
ELD 71 48 58 35 / 50 90 10 0
TYR 72 44 56 35 / 50 50 0 0
GGG 73 45 57 35 / 60 70 0 0
LFK 74 48 59 37 / 80 80 10 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ARZ070>073.
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LAZ001>006-
010>014-017>022.
OK...NONE.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR TXZ097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...13
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