560
FXUS64 KSHV 141916 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
216 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
- A RETURN TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY, BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
- A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH
DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
THE EARLY AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT OUR WEAK FRONT HAS
BECOME STATIONARY FROM PORTIONS OF EXTREME NE TX AND WRN LA, WITH
THE BNDRY NOW BEGINNING TO RETREAT AS BNDRY LYR MOISTURE
ADVECTION HAS BEGUN WITH THE RETURN OF A SERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
WHAT'S LEFT OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BE WASHED OUT BY LATE TONIGHT,
SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE RETURN TO MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AFTER A
RESPITE WITH THE LAST FROPA A FEW DAYS AGO. THE AFTERNOON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RIDGING IN PLACE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST S
INTO ECNTRL TX, WITH AC CIGS HAVING RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER ERN OK
AND HAVE BEGUN TO SLIDE SE INTO THE REGION JUST AHEAD OF THE RIDGE
AXIS. THE SHORT TERM PROGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE RIDGE SHIFT E
THROUGH THE MS VALLEY TONIGHT, AS IT BEGINS TO FLATTEN OVER THE TN
VALLEY AND SE STATES FRIDAY. WITH THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENING OUT
FRIDAY WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE RIDGE, A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL TRAVERSE E THROUGH THE TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO WRN OK FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, AS IT SHIFTS E THROUGH THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, MAX TEMPS WILL NEAR OR EXCEED 90 DEGREES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL RETURN MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
QUITE LIMITED/SHALLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH, ALTHOUGH ELEVATED CIGS
WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE W THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE DEVELOPING SWRLY LLJ AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL NOT
YIELD A PARTICULARLY DEEP MOISTURE FETCH, BNDRY LYR MOISTURE WILL
DEEPEN AND AID IN THE RETURN OF LOW STRATUS SATURDAY MORNING,
WHICH WILL LIFT AND SCATTER OUT BY MID/LATE MORNING. DID BUMP THE
NBM MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED
WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION, BEFORE ADDITIONAL LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPS/ADVECTS N AND LIMITS THE EXTENT OF COOLING SATURDAY
NIGHT.
A SW FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP FROM THE ROCKIES OUT ACROSS THE
NATION'S MIDSECTION SUNDAY, AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH
THAT WILL DIG THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN BEFORE THIS LEAD ENERGY
TRAVERSES THROUGH THE ROCKIES MONDAY. GULF INFLOW WILL BEGIN TO
DEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY, WHICH MAY ENHANCE EARLY SEABREEZE
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, PERTURBATIONS IN THE
FLOW REGIME WILL YIELD AN INCREASE IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE
DISCREPANCIES PERSIST AMONGST THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES AS TO THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT AS THESE
PERTABATIONS ALOFT TRAVERSE THE REGION. WHILE THE THERMODYNAMICS
AND KINEMATICS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE NEXT WEEK, AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THREAT WITH HEAVY RAINFALL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE MCS'S DEVELOP AND TRAVERSE PORTIONS OF TX
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, ALL THE WHILE
PROVIDING BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO THE REGION.
15
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, VFR WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND
ASIDE FROM A SITE OR TWO WITH DAYBREAK 6SM BR OR AFTN HZ. OUR
WINDS HAVE VEERED TO SE AFTER A LITTLE E/NE EARLIER WITH A WEAK
BACKDOOR FROPA AND CONTINUE 5-10G16KT THIS AFTN WITH FURTHER
VEERING TO S/SE AFTER AN OVERNIGHT SLACK, BY 15Z WE'LL SEE
S10-15G25KT FOR FRIDAY. A TOUCH OF CIRRUS, MOSTLY CONTRAILS AND
SOME FEW/SCT MIDDECK ALOFT ON NW FLOW. CONVECTION LOOKS TO RETURN
BY SUN AFTN, INCREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH MIDWEEK. /24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 68 91 71 89 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 63 91 69 89 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 63 88 68 88 / 0 0 10 0
TXK 68 92 71 91 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 63 91 69 88 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 68 90 71 88 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 67 90 70 89 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 67 91 70 90 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...26
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