559
FXUS64 KSHV 032015
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
315 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
- NOTABLE IMPACTS FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
EDOUARD WILL END BY FRIDAY ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION.
- REDUCED CLOUD AND RAIN COVERAGE WILL INTRODUCE MORE ABOVE
NORMAL SUMMER HEAT THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
(UPPER 90S LIKELY).
- DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN (MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-20) LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
AS OF 2 PM CDT, THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EDOUARD ARE
CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX WITH
ATTENDANT RAIN BANDS EXTENDING FURTHER INTO THE TEXAS HILL
COUNTRY. AS RIDGING REBUILDS WESTWARD FROM THE MID-SOUTH TO ACROSS
THE GREAT PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND, IT WILL ACT TO SHOVE THE
CIRCULATION FURTHER SOUTH INTO TEXAS/MEXICO AND AWAY FROM
NORTHEAST TEXAS. THIS RIDGE POSITION TO OUR NORTH SETS UP MORE
ZONAL THIS USHERS IN A GRADUAL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
(MAXIMUMS IN THE UPPER 90S/MINIMUMS IN THE LOW-TO-MID 70S). WITH
DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE LOW 70S THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAT HAZARD PRODUCT ISSUANCE ALSO REMAINS ELEVATED
(ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR INTO SOUTH
ARKANSAS).
MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WINDOW OF SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FOR OUR GREATEST CHANCES (25 TO 50 PERCENT) OF TEMPERATURES
REACHING OR EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR WHERE AIR REMAINS MORE SUBSIDENT. LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SOMEWHAT WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND ALONG THE BASE OF
RIDGING THAT SETS UP A SOMEWHAT UNEVENTFUL SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THAT
SAID, THE CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN THE
FORM OF A DIURNAL PATTERN WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SOUTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR UNDER LESS INHIBITION FROM RIDGING TO THE NORTH.
WPC QPF VALUES STILL SUGGEST ONLY AN ADDITIONAL 0.10-0.25 INCHES
OF RAIN SOUTH OF I-20 OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION FROM T.D. EDOUARD,
MAKING IT THE LAST REMAINING PREDOMINANT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
FOUR STATE REGION. /16/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
FOR THE 03/18Z TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITES
AT THIS HOUR. HOWEVER, SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
MOVING ACROSS OUR LOUISIANA ZONES AND COULD BRING SOME REDUCED
FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT KSHV OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SINCE
COVERAGE IS WIDESPREAD, DECIDED TO ONLY INCLUDE VCTS AT KSHV, WITH
THE OPTION TO AMEND IF NEEDED. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, BUT SOME LOW CIGS AND FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KLFK NEAR DAYBREAK FOR A FEW HOURS. /20/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
WHILE WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT NEEDED, SOME ASSISTANCE
MIGHT BE NEEDED TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL TEXAS AS
THE REMNANTS OF EDOUARD CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THIS AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 75 95 76 95 / 10 10 10 40
MLU 75 96 74 95 / 0 20 20 40
DEQ 71 96 71 98 / 0 0 0 10
TXK 74 96 75 97 / 0 0 0 10
ELD 73 97 73 97 / 0 10 10 20
TYR 73 93 74 95 / 0 0 0 20
GGG 73 96 73 96 / 0 10 10 40
LFK 73 95 73 94 / 0 20 20 70
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ136-149-150-152-
165-166.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...20
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