139
FXUS64 KSHV 131904 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
204 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
- THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND, WITH A MORE NOTABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY RETURNING THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
THE WARMING TREND HAS BEGUN WITH FULL INSOLATION ONGOING UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SFC RIDGING IN PLACE COUPLED WITH VERY DRY AIR
NOTED ON THE EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SRN
PLAINS AND THE GULF STATES. LOW AC CIGS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT SINCE
THIS MORNING FROM FAR ERN OK INTO WRN AND CNTRL AR, BUT HAVE
STRUGGLED TO TRAVERSE SE INTO EXTREME SE OK AND THE NRN SECTIONS
OF SW AR, AS THEY HAVE MOSTLY MIXED OUT/DISSIPATED AS THEY SHIFTED
FARTHER SE. WITH THE GULF STILL CUT OFF, RH'S REMAIN TOLERABLE
DESPITE THESE WARMER TEMPS, WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT NEAR
OF A FEW DEGREES SHY OF THE 90 DEGREE MARK OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION. THE AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CENTER OF
REINFORCING SFC RIDGING NOTED OVER THE MIDWEST, WHICH IS PROGGED
TO SHIFT S THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE MS
VALLEY BEFORE EVENTUALLY BACKDOORING SW INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE REINFORCING DRIER AIR SHOULD EVENTUALLY
SPILL INTO SW AR/SE OK AND POSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF EXTREME NRN
LA BY OR SHORTLY BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY, BEFORE RIDGING BEGINS
TO SHIFT FARTHER E OF THE MS INTO THE OH VALLEY BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
THUS, A SE BNDRY LYR FLOW WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE AREA
THURSDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ELEVATED CU/LOW AC CIG
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FROM ERN OK INTO SW AR
AND POSSIBLY NE LA. ANY CIGS THAT DEVELOP MAY HINDER THE EXTENT OF
COOLING LATE TONIGHT AS THE DRIER AIR BEGINS TO BACKDOOR ITS WAY
IN, WITH A CONTINUED MODERATING TREND EXPECTED IN MIN TEMPS AS
WELL.
UPPER RIDGING NOTED ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY JUST E OF THE
ROCKIES INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND FAR W TX REMAINS PROGGED TO
SHIFT E INTO THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT, WHILE GRADUALLY FLATTENING AS
IT PROGRESSES S INTO THE OZARKS AND FOUR STATE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND ALSO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
RESIDUAL BNDRY FROM THE BACKDOORING SFC RIDGE MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE
TO SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING FOR TEMPS TO REACH OR EXCEED 90
DEGREES OVER MUCH OF E TX/WRN LA ALONG/S OF I-20 THURSDAY, COUPLED
WITH A SLOW AND GRADUAL RETURN OF BNDRY LYR RH'S WHICH MAY YIELD A
WEAK CU FIELD BY AFTERNOON. A DEEPER SSWRLY LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW
WILL BEGIN A MORE NOTABLE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE N INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT, AIDED BY A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
DEVELOPING SFC LOW ALONG THE W TX DRYLINE. SRLY WINDS WILL KEEP
THE AIR MIXED ENOUGH OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN EVEN MILDER TEMPS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING LOW STRATUS WHICH MAY ADVECT INTO
PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX BY/AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY. DESPITE THE
REMNANTS OF THE FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING E OF THE AREA BY
FRIDAY, DEEPENING WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE, AIDING IN
MAX TEMPS NEARING/EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. AN
INCREASING IN ELEVATED CIGS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL AS THE FLOW
FLATTENS OUT ALOFT, BEFORE EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING BACK TO SW BY
LATE WEEKEND.
THE DRY CONDITIONS WHICH HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THIS WEEK WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME WETTER AS PERTURBATIONS ALOFT
EJECT NE ACROSS THE REGION, AIDING IN SUBTLE FORCING AND INCREASED
MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT
BEGINNING SUNDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EJECT
THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND ACROSS OUR REGION. GIVEN THE VARIOUS
TIMING AND COVERAGE UNCERTAINTIES, THE NBM MAINTAINS MOSTLY CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY IN VC
OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR. THIS PATTERN SHOULD SET UP MORE WELCOME
RAINS THAT WILL OFFER SOME RELIEF TO THE ONGOING DROUGHT, WHILE
ALSO HELPING TO SHAVE BACK AFTERNOON TEMPS A BIT.
15
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THIS TAF CYCLE, WITH
POTENTIALLY FEW CLOUDS DEVELOPING AROUND 7-8KFT ALONG A SOUTHWARD
MOVING COOL FRONT FROM MAINLY TXK TO ELD. CIRRUS TO INCREASE FROM
THE WEST ON THURSDAY. WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE N THIS AFTERNOON 6KTS
OR LESS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE (<5KTS) OVERNIGHT AND SHIFTING
E/SE THURSDAY MORNING AROUND 7-10KTS. NO REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS
EXPECTED, HOWEVER, CAN'T RULE OUT PATCHY FOG EARLY THURSDAY MORNING,
ESPECIALLY FOR FOG-PRONE TERMINALS SUCH AS MLU AND LFK. CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION THIS STRONGLY IN THE 13/18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
CK
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. /15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 63 90 68 91 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 62 86 65 91 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 58 84 63 87 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 61 89 67 92 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 57 85 64 91 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 64 90 68 89 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 63 89 68 90 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 62 91 67 90 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...23
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