300  
FXUS64 KSHV 170331  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
1031 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2019  
   
UPDATE
 
 
AS GENERALLY EXPECTED, THE PRIOR SEMI-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX  
COMING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION EARLY THIS  
EVENING DID QUICKLY WEAKEN AND FALL-APART OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.  
THERE IS STILL SOME SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED  
WITH THIS ACTIVITY LINGERING IN WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF  
THE FORECAST AREAS, BUT THERE ARE LARGE PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN  
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE REGION THAT ARE PREDOMINATELY DRY AT  
THIS HOUR.  
 
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT, DESPITE MENTIONED RECENT TRENDS,  
THE FACT THAT THE BOTTOM-END OF A SEASONALLY SIGNIFICANT UPPER  
SHORTWAVE IS MOVING INTO THE REGION MEANS THERE WILL LIKELY BE  
SOME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION PERSISTING OVER THE REGION  
INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE NIGHT. 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION AND  
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WEST DOWN THE I-20 CORRIDOR TO DALLAS IS  
SPURRING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM PRODUCTION CURRENTLY (THAT IS  
HAVING A TOUGH TIME MAKING INROADS INTO OUR FORECAST AREA). I  
ANTICIPATE AT LEAST SOME ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY HAVE BETTER  
SUCCESS TAKING A FOOTHOLD IN AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA  
LATER TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE PROSPECT FOR ANY HAZARDOUS WEATHER  
THREAT MORE THAN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OR LIGHTNING IS ON THE LOW  
SIDE. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING MAINLY IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE  
AT THIS HOUR AND WILL LIKELY NOT MOVE MUCH THROUGH THE REMAINDER  
OF THE NIGHT. WET GROUND AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL YIELD  
SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG IF SKIES CAN CLEAR OUT A BIT, BUT AT THIS  
POINT SUFFICIENT CLEARING FOR MUCH DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED. /50/  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 733 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2019/  
 
UPDATE...  
 
COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AND  
AVAILABLE HI RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH HELP IN  
FIGURING OUT DETAILS (AS THIS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PLAYING CATCH-UP  
ALL DAY). INITIAL CONVECTION COMING INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION  
THIS MORNING MADE MORE HEADWAY THROUGH THE REGION THAN ANTICIPATED  
AND NOW LOW TO MID LAYER BAROCLINICITY IN THE WAKE OF THE  
PREVIOUS (BUT NOW DECAYING) COMPLEX IS HELPING DRIVING MOVEMENT OF  
ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX INTO THE ARKLATEX AND EAST TEXAS.  
REMAINING INSTABILITY PRECEDING THE COMPLEX COMING IN IS NOT  
EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN SEVERE CONVECTION, EVEN  
CONSIDERING ATYPICAL LEVELS OF SYNOPTIC LIFT AND WIND SHEAR  
AVAILABLE. SO, FOR NOW, WE ANTICIPATE A SUB-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM  
COMPLEX TO COME INTO THE REGION FOR TONIGHT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY  
ON HOW FAR IT WILL GET BEFORE TOTALLY DISSIPATING. THE MAIN  
HAZARDOUS WEATHER CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE FROM HEAVY RAINFALL IN  
AREAS THAT ALREADY RECEIVED DOWNPOURS THROUGHOUT THE DAY,  
ESPECIALLY IF COMPLEX CAN MAINTAIN VIGOR FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.  
/50/  
 
AVIATION...  
 
MVFR FLIGHT CATS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF CEILINGS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS IS POPPING UP IN PATCHY FASHION IN THE ARKLATEX AND  
EAST TEXAS, ALTHOUGH MOST TAF SITES ARE STILL VFR. EXPECTING  
PATCHY MVFR TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT DUE TO MIGRATING  
SHOWER AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. LATE TONIGHT THERE IS  
ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES, ESPECIALLY  
AT LFK, BUT SOME OF THAT WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY EVENING  
PRECIPITATION CLEARS OUT LATE TONIGHT. TOMORROW, ANTICIPATE A  
TRANSITION TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING WITH SOUTH TO  
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS RANGING FROM 5 TO 15 MPH. ISOLATED TO  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP  
THROUGHOUT THE AREA BY MIDDAY TOMORROW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS  
IS REPRESENTED IN THE TAFS BY VCTS WORDING. OTHERWISE, EXPECT  
WINDS TO BE A BIT ERRATIC TONIGHT DUE TO VARYING PRESSURE  
GRADIENTS AROUND THE MENTIONED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX. /50/  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2019/  
 
SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/  
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED TO KEEP UP WITH THE CONVECTION  
THAT IS ONGOING. HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH THE GFS, AT LEAST FOR THE  
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, SINCE IT HAS A BETTER HANDLE WITH THE MCS  
THAT HAS MOVED THROUGH AND THE CONVECTION THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER  
NORTH TEXAS. THUS, PRECIPITATION CHANCES RANGE FROM CHANCE TO  
LIKELY OVER THAT TIMEFRAME. PRECIPITABLE WATER ON THIS MORNING'S  
SOUNDING WAS 1.60 INCHES FOR TODAY. THIS COUPLED WITH NEARLY  
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IS MAKING THESE STORMS EFFICIENT RAIN  
PRODUCERS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WHILE THERE IS AN ISOLATED CHANCE  
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE GREATEST  
THREAT IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED  
FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY MONDAY  
EVENING, PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE ON THE DECLINE AS THE  
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.  
 
HAVE KEPT MAX TEMPERATURES TOMORROW BELOW NORMAL WITH THE AMOUNT  
OF CLOUD COVER AND RAIN EXPECTED WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES IN BOTH  
PERIODS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL. /35/  
 
LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
CONTINUED STG INSTABILITY BUT WITH GREATER UNCERTAINTY OF MOISTURE  
AND SHEAR RESULTING IN UNCERTAIN TSTM POTENTIAL TUESDAY AND  
WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH LOW LVL WINDS BEGIN TO SWITCH FROM THE WEST BACK  
TO THE SOUTH DURG THE DAY TUESDAY. WILL KEEP POPS MAINLY LOW END  
CHANCE CATEGORY UNDER THESE CIRCUMSTANCES WITH TEMPS WARMING BACK TO  
EITHER SIDE OF 90 DEGREES. ECMWF IS MOST EVIDENT WITH SHOWING  
CONVECTION ERUPTING OVER NW PORTIONS OF CWA. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE  
DEVELOPS WITHIN THE FLOW OVER OK INTO THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY  
WEDNESDAY EVENING. REASONABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS THIS MORNING BETWEEN  
THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A 30-40+ KT SWRLY LLJ FEEDING INTO THIS NEXT  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING RESULTING  
IN ANOTHER POTENTIAL MCS OVER SE OK/SW AR. WILL INCREASE POPS TO  
HIGH END CHANCE WED NIGHT INTO THUR WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND  
COOLING MID LVLS WITH EXTREME INSTABILITY WITH WED NIGHT MCS  
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO CWA.  
 
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD N FROM CNTRL TX TOWARDS THE AREA INTO THE  
WKND WITH ISOLD POPS AND EVEN WARMER TEMPS INTO LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S  
EXPECTED. /07/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
SHV 68 87 72 89 / 60 60 40 40  
MLU 69 87 72 89 / 30 70 50 50  
DEQ 67 83 68 87 / 80 50 30 40  
TXK 66 85 70 87 / 70 60 40 50  
ELD 67 86 70 87 / 40 60 50 50  
TYR 67 87 72 88 / 80 50 30 30  
GGG 68 87 72 89 / 80 50 40 40  
LFK 66 88 73 91 / 80 60 20 30  
 

 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
50/07/35  
 
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