668
FXUS64 KFWD 020024
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
724 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE.
- ANOTHER MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT
THE AREA FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH
ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
POSSIBLE.
- A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A FEW DAYS OF
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM EASTER SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS REMAINS EAST
OF A DRYLINE AND SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 80S. THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS ATTACHED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARIES REMAINS TO OUR NORTHWEST, KEEPING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENED AND THE SURFACE WINDS ELEVATED. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS WILL RANGE AROUND 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO 30-35 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS IT APPROACHES THE
REGION, LIFT FROM THIS SHORTWAVE WILL INTERACT WITH THE DRYLINE
TO PROMOTE A BLOSSOMING OF MORE DISCRETE SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CAPABLE OF
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS INITIALLY CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS.
HOWEVER AS THESE STORMS PUSH OFF THE DRYLINE AND MOVE EAST TOWARDS
THE BIG COUNTRY THIS EVENING, THEY WILL GROW UPSCALE INTO
CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS. THIS WILL TRANSITION THE MAIN THREAT
INTO MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT, WITH A LOWER THREAT FOR HAIL
AND SPIN-UP TORNADOES WHERE LINE SEGMENTS ARE ABLE TO KINK.
OVERALL FOR THIS MIDWEEK ACTIVITY, THE HIGHEST SEVERE THREAT IS
WEST OF OUR CWA. WITHIN OUR CWA, THE GREATEST CHANCES OF OBSERVING
A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WILL BE NEAR AND WEST OF I-35, WHERE
INSTABILITY IS GREATEST. AS THE STORMS APPROACH AND MOVE EAST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, EXPECT A
WEAKENING TREND TO OCCUR AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO MORE STABLE
AIR.
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL HAVE EXITED
INTO EAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS, THOUGH SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND THE BRAZOS VALLEY THROUGH THE EARLY-
MID AFTERNOON. WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION, THURSDAY WILL REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS STILL IN THE 80S.
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25-30 MPH
WILL AGAIN OCCUR OVER THE AFTERNOON. THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE
DRY AS WE GO INTO A SHORT WAITING PERIOD IN BETWEEN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
OUR NEXT ROUND OF STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AS A
STOUTER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE SWINGS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. OVER
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, WARM ADVECTION-INDUCED SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
HOWEVER, THE MAIN SHOW WILL BE LATER IN THE EVENING AND NIGHT. AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE PLAINS, THE
SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE SOUTH AND BEGIN TO OVERTAKE
THE DRYLINE TO OUR WEST. BETTER LIFT OVERTOP THE TWO SURFACE
BOUNDARIES WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR
AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE AS THE SYSTEM SURGES
SOUTHEAST. UPSCALE GROWTH ALONG THE FRONT MEANS PRIMARY STORM MODE
WILL AGAIN BE CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EFFICIENT INSTABILITY, DEEP LAYER SHEAR,
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SIGNIFY ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT, WITH A
SECONDARY THREAT FOR HAIL AND SPIN-UP TORNADOES. NEAR-RECORD PWATS
AROUND 1.75" WILL PROMOTE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IN THOSE AREAS THAT SEE ANY HEAVIER RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. OVERALL STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.5" WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3-3.5"
THE FRONT AND SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
THE REGION AS WE HEAD THROUGH SATURDAY, EVENTUALLY EXITING THE
REGION LATE IN THE DAY. LOW LINGERING RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS MULTIPLE
MINUTE DISTURBANCES SPREAD ASCENT ATOP THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS.
ALL RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. COOL
POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH THE EARLY
DAYS OF NEXT WEEK, WITH A GRADUAL WARM UP GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 721 PM CDT WED APR 1 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. THE CONVECTION NOW
ONGOING ALONG THE DRYLINE, CURRENTLY LOCATED WELL TO THE WEST, IS
EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE AND MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT. THE
TIMING REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACHING THE WESTERN METROPLEX AROUND 06-07Z AND THE MOST
LIKELY WINDOW FOR DIRECT TERMINAL IMPACTS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TAF
SITES OCCURRING BETWEEN 08-10Z. HAVE MAINTAINED PREVAILING
-SHRA/VCTS WITH A TEMPO FOR TSRA AT THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS DURING
THIS WINDOW. WHILE A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY SURVIVE INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF D10, A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS STILL EXPECTED WITH
EASTWARD EXTENT AS INSTABILITY WANES. THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS
WITH THE CONVECTIVE LINE WILL BE LIGHTNING AND BRIEF GUSTY,
ERRATIC WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF STORMS.
FOR WACO, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER IN STORM INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE, SO THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO CARRY ONLY -SHRA/VCTS
BEGINNING LATER IN THE NIGHT. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF
THE TERMINALS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK, WITH MVFR CEILINGS
LINGERING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT AND
SCATTER BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 67 84 68 83 / 90 60 10 30
WACO 67 83 68 84 / 60 70 10 20
PARIS 66 80 66 80 / 70 80 30 40
DENTON 64 84 65 82 / 90 40 10 40
MCKINNEY 67 83 68 82 / 90 60 20 40
DALLAS 67 85 68 82 / 80 60 10 30
TERRELL 67 82 68 83 / 70 80 10 30
CORSICANA 69 83 70 86 / 50 80 10 30
TEMPLE 67 83 68 86 / 40 70 10 10
MINERAL WELLS 64 86 65 82 / 90 30 10 40
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRATER
LONG TERM....PRATER
AVIATION...12
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