261
FXUS64 KFWD 151835
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1235 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. HEAVY RAIN MAY INCREASE THE THREAT FOR FLOODING
DURING THIS PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
EXPECT THIS WEEKEND TO REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET AS RIDGING
CONTINUES TO DICTATE OUR REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN. AFTERNOON HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-NOVEMBER
STANDARDS, RANGING FROM THE 80S FOR MOST TO THE LOW 90S IN OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A BROAD SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE
CANADIAN PROVINCES OF MANITOBA AND ONTARIO WILL DIG SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS OVER TODAY AND TOMORROW,
SENDING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE FRONT PASSES, AND WILL
EVENTUALLY VEER FURTHER OUT OF THE EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE
UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE WINDS WILL AID IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT SLIGHTLY COOLER, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 70S - LOW 80S NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND AREAS
NORTH, TO THE MID-UPPER 80S SOUTH OF I-20.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
OVER MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK, A LONGWAVE TROUGH
WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS GRADUALLY BREAKING DOWN. A CLOSED LOW
NEAR THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH WILL EJECT INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS CLOSER TO MIDWEEK, WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO MOVE OVERTOP THE
REGION OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW. AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER, MINUTE
DISTURBANCES OUT AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE, BRINGING A RETURN OF PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES STILL LOOK TO BE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE STRONGEST LIFT FROM THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE REGION. PWATS IN THE 90TH CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE OR HIGHER
AND LONG, SKINNY CAPE PROFILES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATIVE OF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH A WIDESPREAD 2-4
INCHES OF TOTAL RAINFALL MOST LIKELY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, BUT
EXACT LOCATIONS OF THOSE HIGHER-END AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN
THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. THE LATEST CLUSTER ANALYSIS NOW HAS ~60-65%
OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HOMING IN ON A SLOWER, DEEPER MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY'S MEASLY ~25%, WHICH
MEANS CONFIDENCE IN A HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS INCREASING.
THERE REMAINS A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
MID-LATE NEXT WEEK, ASIDE FROM OF THE THREAT FOR FLOODING.
HOWEVER, THE EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT AND ASSOCIATED HAZARDS
STILL REMAIN A BIT UNCERTAIN AND WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WHICH EVOLVES OVER THE AREA. WITH MULTIPLE
HAZARDS POSSIBLY IN PLAY, MAKE SURE TO KEEP UPDATED WITH THE
FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEK.
WE MAY SEE A SHORT BREAK IN THE RAIN NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER
LOW SWINGS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND BRINGS ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES AS
WE ENTER THANKSGIVING WEEK. HOWEVER, THIS IS CURRENTLY BEYOND THE
SCOPE OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST AND WILL START TO BE INCLUDED IN
FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY S-SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE TAF SITES, THOUGH WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY THIS
EVENING. LOW CIGS WILL AGAIN SURGE NORTH-NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, BUT SHOULD REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE AIRPORTS AND
CAUSE NO IMPACTS AT THE TERMINALS.
A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH D10 OVERNIGHT, FORCING WINDS OUT AHEAD
TO VEER TOWARDS THE WEST. THIS WESTERLY SHIFT WILL OCCUR
NEAR/JUST AFTER DAYBREAK, BUT THE FRONT ITSELF WILL NOT MOVE
THROUGH THE D10 AIRPORTS UNTIL CLOSER TO 14-15Z. WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST, THEN GRADUALLY VEER MORE TOWARDS THE
EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY STAYING BELOW 10 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 61 80 64 85 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 61 85 65 85 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 59 79 62 82 / 0 0 0 10
DENTON 53 79 59 85 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 58 80 62 83 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 61 82 65 86 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 60 82 63 84 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 63 85 67 85 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 59 86 63 85 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 54 83 57 90 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRATER
LONG TERM....PRATER
AVIATION...PRATER
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