666  
FXUS64 KFWD 152327  
AFDFWD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX  
627 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2024  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION  
 
   
SHORT TERM  
/NEW/  
/THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING/  
 
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE SPREAD  
NEAR AND SOUTH OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS  
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL CONTINUE OVER  
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS PEAK DIURNAL HEATING BEGINS TO BE LOST.  
SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY, THOUGH A FEW MORE STRONG STORMS  
CAPABLE OF GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND BRIEF,  
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDOWN. ANY LINGERING SHOWER  
OR STORM ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE BIG COUNTRY WILL DISSIPATE  
LATER THIS EVENING. THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO  
MEANDER SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT,  
PUTTING THE ENTIRE REGION INTO EAST-TO-NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE  
SURFACE AND LOW-LEVELS. THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE EASTERLY  
WINDS WILL HELP TO KEEP US A TAD COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT,  
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S EXPECTED.  
 
OVER THE DAY MONDAY, THE BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL  
CONTINUE TO SHARPEN AND BUILD FURTHER EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS. THIS WILL PROMOTE DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR-TO-ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE REST OF  
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK  
IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S. SOME GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS ISOLATED  
CONVECTION TO OUR EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE MAJORITY  
OF GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY OUT OF OUR CWA, HAVE INCLUDED A  
SILENT 10% FOR OUR EAST TEXAS AND EASTERN CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES  
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOW POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY SHOWER TO VENTURE  
FURTHER WEST. WE'LL KEEP AN EYE ON FUTURE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MORE  
CERTAINTY AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY.  
 
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL END QUIETLY WITH ANOTHER  
LUKEWARM, MUGGY MORNING ON TUESDAY. MORNING LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN  
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID-UPPER 60S FOR MOST, WHILE AREAS IN THE URBAN  
HEAT ISLAND OF THE DFW METROPLEX WILL ONLY DROP TO THE LOW 70S.  
 
PRATER  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
/ISSUED 251 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2024/  
/TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND/  
 
SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK  
WEEK AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILS ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, TOPPING OUT IN THE  
MID 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS EACH DAY. GULF MOISTURE WILL BE  
ESPECIALLY PREVALENT DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD,  
RESULTING IN WARM AND MUGGY MORNINGS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ONLY  
FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY SURPASS THE  
TRIPLE DIGIT MARK FOR MANY LOCATIONS, PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY  
THROUGH FRIDAY. NO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.  
 
THERE IS A GLIMMER OF HOPE THAT WE'LL RETURN TO A MORE ACTIVE  
PATTERN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKS  
TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THE NBM BRINGS  
LOW STORM CHANCES BACK TO THE REGION FRIDAY EVENING, WITH STORM  
CHANCES POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STAY TUNED (AND  
KEEP YOUR FINGERS CROSSED) AS THESE DETAILS COME MORE INTO FOCUS  
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  
 
BARNES  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
/NEW/  
/00Z TAFS/  
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BLOSSOMED ACROSS WESTERN NORTH  
TEXAS AND THROUGHOUT CENTRAL TEXAS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  
WHILE COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO WANE THROUGH THE EVENING, THIS  
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT ACT THROUGH AROUND 2Z, BUT REMAIN  
WEST OF THE D10 TAF SITES. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT D10 AND  
WESTERLY WINDS AT ACT WILL SETTLE OUT OF THE E-SE LATER THIS  
EVENING, BUT SPEEDS SHOULD STAY AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS TO PRECLUDE  
FLOW CHANGES.  
 
A DECK OF MVFR STRATUS IS LIKELY TO SPREAD ACROSS EAST TEXAS  
OVERNIGHT, APPROACHING THE EASTERN D10 SITES (GKY/DAL/DFW) NEAR  
DAYBREAK. WHILE PROBABILITIES OF MVFR CIGS AT THE TERMINALS  
REMAIN BELOW 30-40% AND GUIDANCE IS NOT KEEN ON BRINGING THEM TO  
THE TAF SITES, HAVE INTRODUCED A TEMPO BETWEEN 13-16Z AT THE  
AFOREMENTIONED SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY FURTHER WESTWARD  
EXPANSION.  
 
OTHERWISE, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHEAST BY  
12Z MONDAY, WITH AFTERNOON CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR.  
 
PRATER  
 
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 71 90 71 90 74 / 0 0 0 0 0  
WACO 71 93 69 94 72 / 20 0 0 0 0  
PARIS 67 86 68 86 67 / 0 10 0 0 0  
DENTON 67 90 67 90 70 / 0 0 0 0 0  
MCKINNEY 67 90 68 90 70 / 0 0 0 0 0  
DALLAS 70 91 70 91 73 / 0 0 0 0 0  
TERRELL 67 89 68 89 69 / 0 0 0 0 0  
CORSICANA 70 91 70 92 72 / 5 0 0 0 0  
TEMPLE 70 94 69 95 71 / 30 0 0 0 0  
MINERAL WELLS 69 92 67 92 69 / 10 0 0 0 0  
 
 
   
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
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