201
FXUS64 KFWD 022342
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
642 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY, WITH A THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
- A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A FEW DAYS OF
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM EASTER SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
THE MAJORITY OF OUR EARLIER MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
EXITED THE REGION AS OF 12 PM, AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER
OUT OF THE AREA. HAVE KEPT LOW END POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR EAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL TEXAS TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS, BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN
DRY THE REST OF TODAY INTO TOMORROW. LINGERING CLOUD COVER IN OUR
EAST WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER, BUT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STILL PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE
UPPER 70S AND 80S. OVERNIGHT, EXPECT A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES ONLY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
OVER THE DAY TOMORROW A STOUTER SHORTWAVE WILL SWING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH A COUPLE MINUTE DISTURBANCES SWINGING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AROUND THE BASE OF PARENT LONGWAVE TROUGH.
THESE MINUTE DISTURBANCES WILL PROVIDE THE ASCENT NEEDED FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE TO OUR WEST OVER THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW. THIS ACTIVITY WILL INITIATE WELL TO OUR
WEST, MOVING NORTHEAST INTO NORTH TEXAS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL HAVE ENOUGH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TO
ALLOW FOR THESE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH A PRIMARY
WIND AND HAIL THREAT. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH ANY
LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS CAM GUIDANCE IS PRETTY INDECISIVE ON
LOCATION AND COVERAGE, BUT IF STORMS WERE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
IT WOULD BE AS EARLY AS 3-4 PM IN OUR BIG COUNTRY COUNTIES.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
THE STOUT SHORTWAVE TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE
PLAINS, SENDING THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT SOUTH. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
INTO AND THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY. STORMS ALONG THE FRONT WOULD BE MORE OF A LINEAR STORM
MODE, AND WOULD STILL CONTAIN A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
HOWEVER, FORECAST HODOGRAPHS HAVE SUFFICIENT CURVATURE IN THE
IN THE 0-1 KM LAYER, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SPIN-
UP TORNADOES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE OR EVEN A FEW DISCRETE
CELLS OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE. ON TOP OF THE SEVERE THREAT, PWATS
AROUND 1.75" WILL MAKE THIS ACTIVITY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS,
AIDING IN AN INCREASING FLOODING THREAT AS WE GO INTO THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1.5-2.5" ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH HIGHEST TOTALS EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. THERE IS ALSO A LOW POTENTIAL (10-20%
CHANCE) FOR ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 3" IN NORTH
TEXAS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL MAKE THEIR WAY OUT OF THE AREA ALONGSIDE THE
FRONT, WITH RAIN CHANCES COMING TO AN END BY SUNDAY MORNING. POST-
FRONTAL TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP THE WEEKEND COOL IN THE 60S AND
70S, THOUGH THE INTRODUCTION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ON THE BACK
END OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH WILL PROMOTE A WARM UP OVER MUCH OF
THIS NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AT 15-25 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THE REST OF THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES. EXPECT A DECK OF MVFR
STRATUS TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH SOMETIME BETWEEN 07Z AND 08Z AT
KACT, AND BETWEEN 08Z AND 10Z AT METROPLEX TAF SITES. VFR
CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN SOMETIME BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z. AROUND THE
SAME TIME, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF
METROPLEX TAF SITES. VCTS OR TEMPO TSRA MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IF
STORM POSITIONS TRACK FURTHER SOUTHEAST. FOR NOW, THESE STORMS
LOOK TO REMAIN NORTHWEST OF TAF SITES BEFORE 00Z SATURDAY. THE
COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE METROPLEX BY 06Z.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND THE ONSET OF TSRA STRADDLING THE
END OF THIS TAF PERIOD, HAVE OPTED TO EXCLUDE FOR NOW. VCTS/TSRA
WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN SUBSEQUENT OVERNIGHT
TAF ISSUANCES.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED IN PORTIONS OF NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY. EVEN IF ACTIVATION IS NOT LOCALLY
REQUESTED, ANY REPORTS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE ARE APPRECIATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 69 83 57 70 / 10 50 90 80
WACO 69 84 62 70 / 10 20 80 100
PARIS 67 81 56 68 / 20 40 90 80
DENTON 66 83 53 68 / 10 60 90 70
MCKINNEY 68 83 56 69 / 10 50 90 80
DALLAS 69 84 57 70 / 10 50 90 80
TERRELL 69 83 59 70 / 10 30 90 90
CORSICANA 70 85 63 74 / 10 20 70 100
TEMPLE 69 85 63 74 / 10 10 70 100
MINERAL WELLS 66 82 54 70 / 0 60 100 70
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRATER
LONG TERM....PRATER
AVIATION...DARRAH
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