420
FXUS64 KFWD 261750
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1250 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS NEAR/WEST OF U.S. 281 WILL SEE AN ELEVATED FIRE THREAT
THURSDAY DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL HEAT, LOW HUMIDITY, AND BREEZY
WINDS.
- A BRIEF COOL DOWN WILL TAKE PLACE LATE FRIDAY & SATURDAY WITH
A COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WARM BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY
ONWARD.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
THE RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR WARM WEATHER OVER THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS WILL BEGIN TO DEGRADE TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE ROUNDS ITS
NORTHERN PERIPHERY. THE IMPACTS FROM THIS DEGRADATION WILL NOT BE
FELT TODAY, HOWEVER, NOTABLE CHANGES WILL BE HAPPENING TOMORROW.
FOR TODAY, GIVEN THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE, EXPECT
ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. THIS
MORNING'S CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE GUSTS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT, HOWEVER, SUSTAINED WINDS WILL STILL BE
AROUND 10-15 MPH.
HEADING INTO TOMORROW, THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND IT'S
COUPLED SURFACE LOW WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHWARD INTO
OUR REGION. THE LATEST SUITE OF MODELS SUGGEST THIS FRONT WILL
ARRIVE TO OUR REGION DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS WHICH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES OCCURRING SLIGHTLY
EARLIER THAN NORMAL. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WINDS WILL SHIFT
OUT OF THE NORTH WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY, A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT BEHIND THE FRONT DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT. GIVEN THE
FRONT WON'T ARRIVE TO OUR BRAZOS VALLEY COUNTIES UNTIL LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON, THOSE LOCATIONS CAN EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT, FRIDAY NIGHT'S
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S. THE COOLER CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN WEST OF I-35 WHERE THE BULK OF THE COOLER AIR WILL
RESIDE. NONETHELESS, IF YOU PLAN ON BEING OUTSIDE EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, YOU MIGHT WANT TO GRAB THAT LIGHT JACKET BEFORE HEADING
OUT THE DOOR.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
THE COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.
PRESSURE FALLS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL ENSURE OUR WINDS RETURN
OUT OF THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL TRANSITION OUR REGION BACK
INTO A WARMING REGIME WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO FINISH OUR THE
WEEKEND.
IN THE MID-LEVELS, A NOTABLE CHANGE WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE AS
THE RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR HEAT TRANSLATES TO THE SOUTHEAST
OVER THE GULF. THIS SHIFT WILL BE DRIVEN BY AN APPROACHING TROUGH
OUR OF THE PACIFIC THAT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
THIS MORNING'S MVFR HAS IMPROVED ACROSS THE REGION, LEAVING VFR
SKIES THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ONGOING
WITH A FEW GUSTS TOUCHING 30 KTS THROUGH AROUND SUNSET. WIND
SPEEDS WILL STILL CONTINUE TO BE BETWEEN 10-15 KTS OVERNIGHT WITH
A RETURN OF MVFR CEILINGS TO THE REGION BY 10Z. FOR WACO, THE
ARRIVAL OF THE MVFR CEILINGS IS LIKELY TO BE CLOSER TO 08Z.
IN ADDITION TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW CLOUDS, A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING TRANSITIONING OUR WINDS
FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY AROUND 16Z TOMORROW. THE INITIAL
TRANSITION WILL LIKELY HAVE WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KTS, HOWEVER,
WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSER TO
30-32 KTS. BEHIND THE FRONT, EXPECT CONTINUED POST-FRONTAL STRATUS
TO LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS.
THERE WILL BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THAT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE IMMEDIATE PASSING OF THE FRONT. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY TRANSIENT AND SHORT-LIVED. BEYOND THIS TAF,
SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL ARRIVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS,
HOWEVER, RAIN SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND WITH MINIMAL IMPACT TO
THE D10 AIRSPACE.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 63 76 52 66 / 0 0 10 0
WACO 63 87 55 71 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 60 74 50 65 / 0 10 0 0
DENTON 59 73 47 64 / 0 10 10 0
MCKINNEY 62 75 50 65 / 0 0 10 0
DALLAS 64 77 54 67 / 0 0 10 0
TERRELL 62 78 52 67 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 64 85 54 71 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 63 87 53 73 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 58 75 48 65 / 0 10 10 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ
AVIATION...HERNANDEZ
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