413
FXUS64 KFWD 020547
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1247 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER IS FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
TRANQUIL AND PLEASANT WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ALL WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOLLOWING AN EASTWARD TRANSLATION OF THE UPPER
TROUGH WHICH BROUGHT RAIN TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. LOW DEWPOINTS IN
THE 40S AND 50S WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. A SMALL AMOUNT OF SHALLOW
RADIATION FOG MAY BE OBSERVED THIS MORNING AS CLOUD COVER BEGINS
TO CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S, ALTHOUGH THIS
IS EXPECTED TO BE A SCARCE ENOUGH OCCURRENCE SUCH THAT NONE WILL
BE INCLUDED IN THE PUBLIC FORECAST. LINGERING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER
WILL CONTINUE TO THIN THIS MORNING, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN
PLACE BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
SUNDAY, AIDED BY THE ONSET OF MODEST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
MORE ROBUST SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
HEADING INTO MONDAY, AND THIS WILL RESULT IN THE RETURN OF THE 60F
ISODROSOTHERM WHILE A SHARPER WARMING TREND ENSUES. HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND THEY SHOULD
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON TUESDAY AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT ALONG WITH POSSIBLY A
DRYLINE INTRUSION COULD CULMINATE IN SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, AND THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN ONE
TO WATCH THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD FOR OUR NEXT STORM
CHANCES.
OVERALL, THE TUESDAY EVENING TO EARLY WEDNESDAY THUNDERSTORM
SETUP IS NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE, PRIMARILY DUE TO UNCOORDINATED
LIFTING MECHANISMS AND UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING. THE SYSTEM'S
PRIMARY MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS LARGELY PROGGED TO LAG BEHIND
THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES, AND BY THE TIME STRONGER DYNAMIC LIFT
ARRIVES, A DIURNAL INCREASE IN MLCIN MAY ALREADY BE OCCURRING
TUESDAY EVENING. THIS MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE TO AREAS MAINLY NEAR THE WEST-EAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT IN
NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD HAVE A TENDENCY TO MERGE
INTO A LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE RATHER QUICKLY GIVEN FLOW/SHEAR
VECTORS PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY. SINCE THIS IS STILL A DAY 4+
FORECAST, MUCH COULD STILL CHANGE, AND A FASTER ARRIVAL OF MID-
LEVEL ASCENT COULD EVEN SUPPORT ISOLATED DRYLINE CONVECTIVE
ATTEMPTS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO
DEVELOP WILL HAVE ACCESS TO A PARAMETER SPACE SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE HAZARDS.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
ON WEDNESDAY, IT WILL BRING A NOTEWORTHY COOLDOWN FOR A DAY OR
TWO TO FOLLOW WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY. A DRY FORECAST IS FAVORED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WORKWEEK AS WE LIKELY REMAIN POSITIONED BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS
THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
WIND DURING THE DAYTIME TODAY. WINDS WILL RETURN TO SOUTHEASTERLY
AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING WITH SPEEDS AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS. EXPECT A
STEADY THINNING OF MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 66 51 75 55 / 60 20 0 0
WACO 60 49 72 51 / 100 50 0 0
PARIS 67 47 72 49 / 20 10 0 0
DENTON 65 46 75 51 / 40 10 0 0
MCKINNEY 66 48 75 53 / 50 20 0 0
DALLAS 66 51 77 56 / 60 30 0 0
TERRELL 62 49 75 51 / 70 40 0 0
CORSICANA 59 51 76 53 / 90 60 0 0
TEMPLE 57 49 75 51 / 100 50 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 62 46 75 48 / 70 10 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...STALLEY
LONG TERM....STALLEY
AVIATION...STALLEY
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