223
FXUS64 KFWD 011744
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1244 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE LOW POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING TO THE BRAZOS VALLEY WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
BIG COUNTRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
ALTHOUGH ANOTHER HOT SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER 100S, THE
APPROACH OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WILL BRING LOW RAIN CHANCES
(10-30%) TO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE ARE TWO
PRIMARY REASONS FOR THE RETURN OF THESE LOWER RAIN CHANCES:
1) THE EXCEPTIONALLY MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
EDOUARD WILL SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE THE HUMIDITY ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS WILL REDUCE THE DETRIMENTAL EFFECTS OF
ENTRAINMENT THAT HAS LARGELY INHIBITED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION THE LAST MONTH.
2) FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL MOVE IN WITH THE APPROACH OF EDOUARD
AS THE MID-LEVEL VORT MAX APPROACHES NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS FROM
THE SOUTHEAST. WHILE THE AMOUNT OF LIFT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME, AT LEAST WEAK FORCING CAN BE EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING
ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE BRAZOS VALLEY.
CONSIDERING THE TWO REASONS ABOVE, VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS (AND
POTENTIALLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO) CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (10-20%
CHANCE). RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER (20-30%) FURTHER SOUTHEAST
INTO THE BRAZOS VALLEY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO EDOUARD.
THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO STAY DRY WILL BE LOCATIONS WEST OF I-35
AND NORTH OF I-20. NOT ONLY IS THIS AREA FURTHEST FROM THE
LOCALIZED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH EDOUARD, BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW MUCH DRIER MID AND UPPER-LEVELS THAT WILL LIKELY
INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
..WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE EXPECTED REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WILL SLOWLY WORK
INTO THE REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (50-70%
CHANCE) POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MORE
ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS DURING THIS SAME TIME FRAME. ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS (10-30% CHANCE) IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE GREATEST IN CENTRAL
TEXAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY GREATLY ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL REMNANTS WILL
CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER-90S AND LOWER-100S EACH DAY. THE
MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-20, AND WEST OF I-35. IN THIS AREA, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL CONTINUE WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES CONTINUING TO DROP INTO THE
25-40% RANGE AND LITTLE TO NO RAIN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE BRAZOS VALLEY, HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY MAY
NOT BREAK OUT OF THE 80S. AS THE REMNANTS OF EDOUARD SLOWLY
DISSIPATE THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WORK WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLOW TO REBOUND WHEREVER CLOUD COVER AND RAIN LINGERS. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOW AND MID 90S FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN TEXAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST SOUTH OF I-20 AND EAST
OF I-35. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM HALF AN
INCH TO AN INCH FOR MUCH OF THIS AREA. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED AREAS
MAY SEE GREATER RAINFALL TOTALS THAN THIS WITH LOCATIONS IN THE
BRAZOS VALLEY POTENTIALLY SEEING 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN BY FRIDAY.
FURTHERMORE, WHILE THE SEVERE RISK IS LOW, MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF
1000-2000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT A MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND RISK,
ESPECIALLY FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP IN THE DRIER AIR
ON THE FRINGES OF THE INCOMING TROPICAL AIRMASS. WITH LOCALLY
ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS RIGHT NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL
REMNANTS, A BRIEF WEAK SPIN-UP TORNADO IN THE BRAZOS VALLEY CAN'T
BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
..SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
BY THIS WEEKEND. AS SUCH, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION (ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS) WITH HIGHS NEAR OR JUST
ABOVE 100 BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE DAILY CHANCES
FOR VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS (10-20%) FROM THE BRAZOS
VALLEY INTO EAST TEXAS WHERE MOISTURE IS HIGHER. FURTHER NORTH
AND WEST OF THIS AREA, DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AS RIDGING
SHIFTS BACK EAST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD ASIDE FROM A LOW (~10%) POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. INCREASING MID-TO-
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF TS EDOUARD SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM
DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS TO TAF SITES REMAINS BELOW WHAT IS
MENTIONABLE AT THIS TIME.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT (5-10KT) AND GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING MORE EASTERLY, FIRST AT
WACO AND THEN AT METROPLEX SITES. BY 18Z WEDNESDAY, RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE INCREASING TO NEAR 30% AT KACT AS EDOUARD OR ITS REMNANTS
PASS CLOSELY TO THE EAST; WE WILL CONSIDER ADDING A MENTION OF
PRECIP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR WACO IN FUTURE UPDATES.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 101 79 98 77 / 10 10 30 40
WACO 100 75 95 75 / 20 30 60 50
PARIS 99 75 98 75 / 10 10 10 20
DENTON 101 76 99 74 / 10 10 20 30
MCKINNEY 100 75 97 74 / 10 10 20 40
DALLAS 101 79 96 78 / 10 10 30 50
TERRELL 101 75 95 73 / 20 10 40 50
CORSICANA 99 75 92 74 / 20 50 60 60
TEMPLE 98 74 96 73 / 20 30 60 50
MINERAL WELLS 101 73 100 72 / 10 10 10 20
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DARRAH
LONG TERM....DARRAH
AVIATION...FENSKE
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