926  
FXUS64 KFWD 090010  
AFDFWD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX  
610 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
/NEW/  
/THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING/  
 
A PERSISTENT FRONT CONTINUES TO MEANDER NEAR THE INTERSTATE 20  
CORRIDOR, AND COULD ACTUALLY BE SEEN SAGGING A TAD SOUTH THROUGH  
THE DFW METROPLEX EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS  
IS MOVING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT WITHIN THE ZONAL ALOFT.  
THERE IS JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR AN ISOLATED STORM OR  
TWO TO OCCUR WITHIN THIS BAND, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.  
THIS POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT, AND COVERAGE MAY ACTUALLY  
INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS ASCENT BECOMES  
ENHANCED BY A PASSING SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE HIGHEST  
POPS WILL HENCE BE FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON  
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT MIDNIGHT.  
 
LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL BE ANOTHER PRODUCT OF THE QUASI-  
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THE BEST FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG AND  
NORTH OF THE FRONT, OR ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION.  
PATCHY DENSE FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT, AND WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A  
CLOSE EYE ON VISIBILITY TRENDS OVERNIGHT. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE  
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER GRADUALLY MIXES. THE FRONT  
WILL REVERSE COURSE AND LIFT NORTH LATE FRIDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER  
LEVEL SYSTEM DIGS OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS  
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ON SATURDAY AS THE BAJA SYSTEM  
ENTERS FROM THE WEST.  
 
30  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
/ISSUED 230 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022/  
/FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE  
LOCATED ALONG OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES NEAR THE RED RIVER.  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING MID-LEVEL TROUGH  
ALONG THE ROCKIES, WILL AID IN ENOUGH LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR  
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS  
UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES  
SATURDAY WILL INCREASE SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS  
THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THIS AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL STALL NEAR  
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS THE MID-LEVEL FORCING MOVES  
TOWARDS THE EAST. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST  
OF THE WEEK WITH THE LACK OF MID-LEVEL FORCING AND RESIDUAL  
BOUNDARIES. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE LIKELY  
SUNDAY BEHIND WEAK NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE.  
 
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO  
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO  
CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD  
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY LATE. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM,  
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL RETURN IN THE LOW LEVELS, AIDING IN  
DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION NORTH OF THE RED RIVER. FINER DETAILS ARE  
STILL YET TO BE RESOLVED OWING TO TROUGH TIMING, SURFACE FEATURES,  
ETC., HOWEVER, THE ENVIRONMENT COULD BE PRIMED FOR SEVERE WEATHER  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGHER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON  
WILL SUPPORT INSTABILITY, AND MID-LEVEL SUPPORT AHEAD OF THE  
ADVANCING TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-50KTS. AS OF  
RIGHT NOW, TIMING OF SEVERE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. IT DOES APPEAR  
THAT THIS EVENT COULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY, GIVEN THE  
TIMING OF THE COLLOCATION OF SEVERE WEATHER INGREDIENTS.  
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE THE EVOLVING THREAT.  
 
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH PASSES, ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL FOLLOW  
IN ITS WAKE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPEARS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY  
MORNING, WHICH WILL COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN MIDWEEK INTO THE  
MID 50S.  
 
BUNKER  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
/NEW/  
/00Z TAFS/  
 
LIGHT WINDS AND THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK FRONT WILL LEAD TO  
DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY  
ACTUALLY HELP MITIGATE DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE METROPLEX, BUT  
THERE SHOULD STILL BE IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTEND WITH OVERNIGHT  
(BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS). CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS  
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ENSUES. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED STORM OR  
TWO, BUT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO  
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.  
 
30  
 

 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 60 69 62 69 55 / 40 30 40 70 20  
WACO 63 76 63 74 59 / 20 20 10 50 30  
PARIS 57 67 61 67 53 / 30 20 60 80 30  
DENTON 56 68 60 67 50 / 30 20 50 70 20  
MCKINNEY 57 68 60 68 52 / 30 20 50 80 20  
DALLAS 60 69 62 69 55 / 40 30 40 70 30  
TERRELL 62 70 62 71 56 / 40 40 30 70 30  
CORSICANA 65 75 63 74 60 / 30 30 10 50 40  
TEMPLE 63 77 64 75 60 / 5 10 5 30 40  
MINERAL WELLS 58 69 60 67 49 / 20 30 30 70 10  
 

 
   
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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