648  
FXUS64 KFWD 141048  
AFDFWD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX  
548 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2021  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
/NEW/  
UPDATE:  
 
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY OTHER  
THAN TO BUMP UP CLOUD COVER THROUGH TODAY. MOISTURE AROUND 5000 FT  
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY THANKS TO INCREASING  
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF PASSING CLOUD  
COVER AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING. HIGHS SHOULD STILL TOP OUT IN  
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.  
 
INCREASING MOISTURE AND WEAK ASCENT SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST  
ISOLATED SHOWERS BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE HILL  
COUNTRY AND SOME OF THESE COULD NUDGE INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN  
COUNTIES. OTHERWISE, RAIN/STORM CHANCES WILL STEADILY INCREASE  
ACROSS WEST TEXAS INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BY LATE IN THE DAY  
SATURDAY.  
 
DUNN  
 

 
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:  
/REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD  
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO  
SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL STEADILY INCREASE  
AS A RESULT SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD LATER THIS  
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT, MOISTURE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM  
OF THE UPPER JET WILL SPREAD SOME INTERMITTENT HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY  
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. IN ADDITION, SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE  
IS RESULTING IN PATCHES OF OVERCAST SKIES ACROSS PARTS OF THE  
REGION. THESE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING MAINLY ACROSS  
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS PARTS OF OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.  
OTHERWISE, IT SHOULD BE A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY ACROSS NORTH AND  
CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND INCREASING  
SOUTH WINDS.  
 
BY FRIDAY NIGHT, A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD INTO WEST TEXAS. A  
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION  
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BY EARLY  
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW EARLY MORNING SCATTERED  
SHOWERS MAINLY WEST OF OUR AREA. BY AFTERNOON THOUGH, WITH SOME  
HEATING AND PERSISTENT WEAK ASCENT, WE SHOULD SEE SCATTERED  
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS WEST TEXAS. SOME OF THIS  
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BY EARLY  
EVENING WHERE WE'LL HAVE POPS IN THE 30-50% RANGE. MODEST  
INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS, BUT GENERALLY  
WEAK LAPSE RATES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL  
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  
 
DUNN  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
/ISSUED 435 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2021/  
/SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK/  
 
MOISTURE RETURN VIA SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND THE DEEP UPPER-  
LEVEL LOW THAT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE AND ADVANCE ACROSS  
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL PRIME THE ENVIRONMENT FOR AN EXTENDED  
PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES  
PROPAGATE ACROSS THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THE CLOSED LOW THERE  
WILL BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH AND  
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE PROJECTED WET PERIOD  
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS,  
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL, AND RENEWED FLOODING CONCERNS ON AREA  
CREEKS, LAKES, RIVERS, AND STREAMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO  
BELOW NORMAL AS PERSISTENT AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND CLOUD  
COVER IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL  
WEAKEN/FLATTEN AND SUBSEQUENTLY ALLOW FOR A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE  
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN  
CUTOFF LOW. AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT-TERM DISCUSSION ABOVE, RAIN  
CHANCES WILL BEGIN INCREASING LATE SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY  
AS DRYLINE FORCED CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN  
WEST TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE  
GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR  
THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEING SUSTAINED LONG ENOUGH TO MOVE INTO  
AND ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  
 
ON SUNDAY, ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH  
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION, MAINTAINING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE  
STILL SITUATED WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. DESPITE MODERATE  
INSTABILITY, OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS IS MARGINAL AS GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A PRONOUNCED  
WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW AND MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. BY  
MONDAY, SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE ACROSS THE  
STATE OF TEXAS AS THE DEEP 570 LOW TREKS SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH  
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL FINALLY  
ARRIVE TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW NEARS. BY WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE  
WEEK, THE CLOSED LOW WILL OPEN AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE  
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.  
 
AS OF THIS FORECAST UPDATE, TUESDAY LOOKS TO PROVIDE THE BEST  
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS  
INCREASED BOUNDARY- LAYER INSTABILITY ALIGNS WITH A PLUME OF DEEP  
LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION.  
WITH RAIN CHANCES EVERY DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE  
FLOODING POTENTIAL FROM WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE  
THE MORE IMPACTFUL FORECAST CONCERN. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL  
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS OF 3-6 INCHES BY  
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE SOIL IN MANY AREAS IS ALREADY SATURATED  
FROM HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS, SO THIS ADDITIONAL  
QPF WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR RUNOFF AND NEW/RENEWED  
FLOODING CONCERNS.  
 
12  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
/NEW/  
/12Z TAFS/  
 
BKN/OVC050 CIGS ARE INTERMITTENT ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS  
THIS MORNING AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE  
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE, PASSING HIGH CLOUDS CAN  
BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME  
SOUTHERLY LATER THIS MORNING BETWEEN 10-15 KT.  
 
MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND WILL  
LIKELY IMPACT WACO PRIOR TO SUNRISE.  
 
DUNN  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 78 64 82 66 78 / 0 0 10 50 70  
WACO 78 63 82 66 79 / 0 0 20 40 70  
PARIS 74 57 80 63 76 / 0 0 5 30 60  
DENTON 77 61 80 64 76 / 0 0 20 50 70  
MCKINNEY 76 60 81 65 76 / 0 0 10 40 70  
DALLAS 79 64 83 67 79 / 0 0 10 40 70  
TERRELL 76 59 81 65 77 / 0 0 5 30 70  
CORSICANA 78 61 83 65 78 / 0 0 10 30 70  
TEMPLE 78 62 80 65 79 / 0 0 30 40 60  
MINERAL WELLS 77 62 80 64 78 / 0 0 30 50 60  
 

 
   
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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