414
FXUS64 KFWD 070555
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1255 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT ARRIVE.
- WARMER AND MOSTLY RAIN-FREE WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED IN ACROSS THE AREA WITH SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR ACTING TO ERODE A DECK OF POST-FRONTAL STRATUS THIS
MORNING. GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WE'LL
MAINTAIN A CANOPY OF STEADILY THINNING CIRRUS THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAYTIME. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE A STEADY STREAM OF MID-CLOUD AND PERHAPS SOME
SHOWERY PRECIP WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT CONTINUES. CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL
WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA ARE LESS THAN 10%, BUT AT LEAST A FEW
SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A LAMPASAS TO HEARNE LINE TODAY.
FOR AREAS FARTHER TO THE NORTH, IT SHOULD BE A QUITE PLEASANT AND
RAIN-FREE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND A LIGHT NORTH BREEZE
OF 5-10 MPH. MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY
TRANQUIL WITH LOWS IN THE 50S BEFORE RAIN CHANCES RESUME EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES REESTABLISHED WITH A MOIST OPEN WARM
SECTOR OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL TRAVERSE FAIRLY ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM
EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT WILL NOT
NECESSARILY REACH MAXIMUM COVERAGE DURING TRADITIONAL PEAK
HEATING HOURS. CONVECTION COULD BEGIN DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS
SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING WITHIN A MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME AHEAD OF
AN EJECTING UPPER LOW WITHIN FAST SUBTROPICAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS ACTIVITY WOULD NOT HAVE ACCESS TO A GREAT DEAL OF
INSTABILITY, BUT COULD CERTAINLY PRODUCE LIGHTNING AND PERHAPS
SMALL HAIL DURING THE DAYTIME FRIDAY WITH THE PRIMARY CHANCES
REMAINING SOUTH OF I-20. A STRONGER STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH AID FROM DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION.
A FURTHER NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY, BUT LARGE-SCALE LIFT WILL LARGELY BE ABSENT WITHOUT THE
PRESENCE OF A FOCUSING SURFACE BOUNDARY AND MODEST HEIGHT RISES
ALOFT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ENTIRELY, BUT THIS MAY BE THE LESS CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY THIS
WEEKEND WITHOUT BETTER ASCENT PRESENT. ON SUNDAY, GUIDANCE IS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ON ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL INTRUSION DURING THE
DAYTIME WHICH WILL OFFER BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES OF 30-50%
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE OVERALL WARM SECTOR PARAMETER SPACE
PRECEDING THE FRONT WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTION, BUT THE WEST/EAST BOUNDARY ORIENTATION AND BOUNDARY-
PARALLEL FLOW MAKES THIS SETUP FAR FROM IDEAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL.
WHILE A BRIEF COOLDOWN IS LIKELY FOLLOWING THE LATE WEEKEND
FRONTAL PASSAGE, THE AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS
COOL AS THE 60S AND LOWER 70S THAT WE'VE EXPERIENCED THIS WEEK. IT
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KNOCK TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER 80S
FOLLOWING UPPER 80S OR 90S OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT A FAIRLY QUICK
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
D10 TAF SITES ARE QUICKLY CLEARING AS OF 06Z WITH THE MVFR DECK
ERODING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THIS PROCESS WILL TAKE
SEVERAL MORE HOURS AT WACO, AND THE CENTRAL TEXAS TAF SITE IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN OVC MVFR UNTIL SUNRISE OR SO. A LIGHT NORTH WIND
OF LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYTIME WITH VFR
SKIES, WHILE A CIRRUS PLUME CONTINUES TO STREAM OVERHEAD. WINDS
WILL RETURN TO LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 66 55 75 58 / 20 0 0 10
WACO 66 57 74 59 / 30 0 10 20
PARIS 64 51 72 52 / 40 10 0 0
DENTON 65 51 73 53 / 10 0 0 10
MCKINNEY 66 52 74 56 / 20 0 0 10
DALLAS 67 56 75 59 / 20 0 0 10
TERRELL 65 55 73 56 / 40 10 0 10
CORSICANA 66 57 76 60 / 40 0 0 10
TEMPLE 67 58 74 59 / 30 0 10 20
MINERAL WELLS 67 50 72 53 / 10 0 0 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...STALLEY
LONG TERM....STALLEY
AVIATION...STALLEY
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