664
FXUS64 KFWD 310630
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1230 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND FRIGID WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY.
- A WARM UP WILL OCCUR SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH LOW
RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO PARTS OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT WITH
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S NOW SPREADING
ACROSS THE RED RIVER. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS ALONG THE RED
RIVER AND INTO THE LOW 20S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. THE BRISK
NORTH WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH COLDER WITH WIND CHILLS NEAR
ZERO AT TIMES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS WE GO THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING
NORTH OF I-20 WITH READINGS IN THE LOW/MID 30S FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH. THERE IS A STREAM OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL SPREAD
INTO THE REGION FROM STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THIS MAY
RESULT IN SOME INTERMITTENT CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY DESPITE
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE ARKLATEX. SATURDAY
WILL BE A DOWNRIGHT COLD DAY, BUT THE DURATION OF COLD WILL BE
SHORT LIVED GIVEN A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S AGAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT, BUT AS THE SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY, WE'LL
SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN BENEATH WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA AND PERHAPS SOME LOW 60S OUT WEST.
DUNN
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS DEEP TROUGHING
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REMAIN
BENEATH SUBTLE RIDGING. HIGHS MAY APPROACH THE LOWER 70S BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES. IT'LL REMAIN A LITTLE COOLER TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE
MONDAY AND ITS INFLUENCE ON A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER WEST
TEXAS WILL RESULT IN MOISTURE BEING PULLED NORTHWARD INTO NORTH
TEXAS, PARTICULARLY EAST OF I-35 LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS
OCCURS AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH AND COLD FRONT OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A FEW STORMS MAINLY EAST OF I-35 WHERE WE'LL HAVE 30-50% POPS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST QUICKLY LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING TAKING RAIN CHANCES WITH IT, BUT THE MAIN UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AS IT DIGS THROUGH WEST TEXAS.
VERY STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER LOW SPREADING INTO NORTH TEXAS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALOFT HAVE QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE, BUT THE
SUB-CLOUD LAYER IS RATHER DRY. THIS MAY BE A SITUATION WHERE WE
HAVE CONSIDERABLY MORE CLOUD COVER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AND
THIS WOULD CERTAINLY RESULT IN FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES COLDER FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THAN WE'RE CURRENTLY
ADVERTISING. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AS THERE COULD BE SOME
LIGHT PRECIP ATTEMPT TO FALL OUT OF THE MID LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS.
OTHERWISE, THIS TOO WILL MOVE EAST QUICKLY LATE WEDNESDAY GIVEN
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND WE SHOULD WARM BACK UP INTO THE 60S
AND LOWER 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
DUNN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS AT THIS HOUR WITH GUSTY
NORTH WINDS AND COLDER AIR SPILLING SOUTHWARD. SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT AS OF NOW, IT APPEARS
THAT ANY MVFR CIGS SHOULD STAY OFF TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. NORTH
WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KT OVERNIGHT AND DIMINISH DURING THE MID
MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. VFR WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY WITH WINDS
GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 46 19 33 24 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 51 25 38 23 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 43 14 31 20 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 46 14 32 19 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 44 16 31 21 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 47 19 34 24 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 46 17 33 21 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 48 22 37 25 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 51 24 39 22 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 50 18 36 21 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST SATURDAY FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
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