283
FXUS64 KFWD 020037
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
737 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING
HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING TO THE REGION.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MUCH DRIER WEATHER.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG
AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR BRINGING HEAVY RAIN TO MUCH OF THE
AREA. SINCE THIS MORNING, THIS LINE OF STORMS HAS PRODUCED 1-3
INCHES OF RAIN FOR MOST WITH ISOLATED POCKETS BETWEEN 4 AND 5
INCHES. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY PROGRESSIVE SURFACE BOUNDARY, THESE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE I-35
CORRIDOR INTO EAST TEXAS. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS
LINE OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE BROKEN WITH
TIME. NONETHELESS, THE FLASH FLOODING RISK THAT HAS BEEN REALIZED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DFW METROPLEX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR EASTWARD. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND PERSISTENCE OF HEAVY RAIN,
THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH HAS NOT BEEN EXPANDED EAST AS OF NOW.
HOWEVER, CONDITIONS ARE BEING MONITORED AND THE FLOOD WATCH AREA
MAY NEED TO BE UPDATED THIS AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING MOST OF THE
CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL HAVE DISSIPATED OR MOVED OFF TOWARDS THE
EAST WITH ONLY LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
(30-50% CHANCE OF RAIN) INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
AVERAGE FOR MOST IN THE REGION WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID-70S
TO THE MID-80S. UPPER-80S ARE EXPECTED IN THE BRAZOS VALLEY AS THE
LATE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP HAS ALLOWED FOR STRONGER DIURNAL
WARMING THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.
TONIGHT, REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED (70-80% CHANCE OF RAIN) GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF I-20. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE OF RAIN OVERNIGHT NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR; HOWEVER, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE
TOMORROW.
BY FRIDAY, A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL
FINALLY ADVANCE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. ALOFT, WEAK
TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF AND
BEHIND THE INCOMING COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON FRIDAY. ALL IN ALL, IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER CLOUDY AND RAINY
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES LARGELY REMAINING IN THE 70S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
..FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL REMINISCE OF FRIDAYS WEATHER.
HOWEVER, THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORT
MAX WILL GRADUALLY DE-AMPLIFY DURING THIS TIME FRAME RESULTING IN
MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE (50-70%) OF REMAINING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (AS OPPOSED TO THE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK). NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN COOLER CONTINENTAL AIR FROM UP
NORTH, KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE YET AGAIN IN THE 70S.
SUNDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH THE
MID-LEVEL VORT MAX DISSIPATING AND ADVECTING OFF TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LIFT
FROM THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE SHALLOW POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS TO BRING ANOTHER DAY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (30-50%). THE GREATEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
MOISTURE WILL BE GREATEST.
..MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
BY MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
FROM THE NORTHEAST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD ACTUALLY BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THIS WEEKEND (HIGHS IN THE 80S) DUE TO THE
DRYNESS OF THE AIR AND INCREASED DAYTIME HEATING FROM MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE IN THE 50S
AND LOW-60S AS THIS SAME WEATHER PATTERN FAVORS STRONG RADIATIVE
COOLING AT NIGHT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 734 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
LOW CEILINGS HAVE SCATTERED OUT THIS EVENING AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE
CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH TODAY'S PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST. EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR A RETURN TO MVFR CEILINGS
FOR ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT AS DIURNAL COOLING OF A MOIST AIRMASS
COMMENCES. 00Z SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SOME CUMULUS AND A FEW
BILLOW CLOUDS OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF D10, WITH RESIDUAL LOW
CEILINGS WEST OF ACT. LOCATIONS BETWEEN THE TWO WILL LIKELY FILL IN
AND SPREAD EAST INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH TIME. TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED.
THE PRIMARY OPERATIONAL IMPACT FOR TONIGHT AND THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED GENERALLY EAST OF I-35 AROUND 06Z,
BUILDING WEST INTO THE D10 AND WACO AIRSPACES THEREAFTER. THE
GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF DIRECT IMPACTS AT THIS JUNCTURE APPEARS TO BE
BETWEEN 09-13Z AS THE WESTWARD TRANSLATION OF A BROKEN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS STALLS ALONG I-35. HAVE INTRODUCED A TEMPO FOR THAT
TIME PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT FLOW TO NORTHERLY TOMORROW MORNING,
FIRST AT D10 (AROUND 10Z) THEN AT WACO (AROUND 13Z). WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AS THIS OCCURS, INCREASING TO ~10 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY, BUT ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING OR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE APPRECIATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 70 76 67 76 / 90 80 70 70
WACO 70 78 68 78 / 90 90 70 70
PARIS 68 77 67 76 / 90 80 60 70
DENTON 68 75 64 76 / 70 70 60 70
MCKINNEY 67 76 64 76 / 90 80 70 70
DALLAS 71 77 68 77 / 90 90 70 70
TERRELL 68 78 66 77 / 90 90 70 70
CORSICANA 70 78 68 78 / 90 90 70 70
TEMPLE 69 78 67 78 / 90 90 70 70
MINERAL WELLS 65 74 61 75 / 50 70 70 60
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ103>107-118>123-133>135-
144>146-156>161-174.
SHORT TERM...DARRAH
LONG TERM....DARRAH
AVIATION...DORNSIFE
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