613
FXUS64 KFWD 021131
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
531 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
RADAR MOSAICS THIS EVENING ARE ALREADY SHOWING EVIDENCE OF VIRGA
AND LIGHT RETURNS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE NOW
TRAVERSING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW IS
BEGINNING TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE RED
RIVER. GIVEN THE PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER BELOW 700 MB, ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE SURFACE, AND ONLY A FEW
LOCATIONS MAY SEE BRIEF SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY, ALLOWING SKIES TO
GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST.
WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND LESS CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PRE-DAWN HOURS, SEVERAL LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE
A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MORE EFFICIENT (THOUGH STILL MODEST) RADIATIONAL
COOLING. AS A RESULT, OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WERE NUDGED
DOWNWARD A FEW DEGREES, PARTICULARLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND
WESTERN ZONES WHERE CLEARING HAS ALREADY OCCURRED. MOST AREAS
SHOULD STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE EARLY JANUARY NORMALS, WITH LOWS
SETTLING IN THE LOW TO MID 50S BY SUNRISE.
A COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE,
ENTERING NORTH TEXAS BY MID MORNING AND GRADUALLY PUSHING
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING. THE AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE
IS NOT PARTICULARLY COLD, BUT MODEST COLD ADVECTION AND INCREASED
MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S NORTH OF I-20 TO THE
UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S SOUTH OF I-20. THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
SATURDAY, A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION WITHIN
THE WEAK/DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. THIS TRAILING WAVE MAY
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO PARTS OF THE
REGION, BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE LACK OF
MOISTURE AND LIMITED ASCENT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
A WARMING TREND WILL RESUME ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING REASSERTS ITSELF OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL FOSTER DAILY
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. IN THE
ABSENCE OF BETTER MOISTURE RETURN, AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES MAY DIP BELOW 25 PERCENT WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, INTRODUCING SOME LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT, BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
BY WEDNESDAY, A PATTERN SHIFT BEGINS TO UNFOLD AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, NUDGING THE RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL ENCOURAGE
CONTINUED MOISTURE RETURN, WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 50S
AND 60S. THIS INCREASE IN BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
THE APPROACH OF A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE SHOULD SUPPORT A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR RAINFALL LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF WIDESPREAD
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD, MARKING A POTENTIAL
END TO THE RECENT DRY SPELL ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN THE OVERALL SETUP, QUESTIONS REMAIN REGARDING THE
EXACT TRACK AND TIMING IN THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM, WHICH ULTIMATELY
WILL DICTATE THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL. A MORE
SOUTHERLY SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT DEEPER MOISTURE AND A MORE
PROLONGED PRECIP EVENT, BUT ADDITIONAL RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WILL
BE NEEDED BEFORE REFINING DETAILS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
MORNING WITH SKC PREVAILING IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE S-SSW (180-220) WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 8 KTS, BECOMING MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY BY MID-MORNING
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-12 KTS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING SHIFTING WINDS MORE
NORTHERLY AROUND OR JUST AFTER 00Z.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 75 48 67 41 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 80 50 68 41 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 70 47 63 38 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 72 43 66 36 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 72 46 65 37 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 75 49 68 42 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 75 47 66 38 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 80 50 70 42 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 83 50 70 40 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 77 43 69 37 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12
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