554
FXUS64 KFWD 250149
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
849 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET WEATHER AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY LATE NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST LOW RAIN
CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY
WARM AND DRY THROUGH SUNDAY, AS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES
TO TREK EASTWARD FROM TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
SUNDAY EVENING. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST AREAS, UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THESE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
OCTOBER.
ON SUNDAY, A PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS
OUR AREA, POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCURSION OF LOWER CLOUDS
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS FROM AROUND DAYBREAK THROUGH MIDDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF DECREASING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS AHEAD OF THE LOW TO
OUR WEST, ALONG WITH THE CLOUDINESS, SHOULD HELP SHAVE A FEW
DEGREES OFF OUR HIGHS FOR SUNDAY. IT WILL STILL FEEL QUITE BALMY,
HOWEVER, WITH VALUES REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
THE AMPLIFIED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEKEND WILL BECOME
AN OPEN WAVE AND QUICKLY ZIP NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THIS TROUGH WILL
BRUSH NORTH TEXAS, PERHAPS INTRODUCING SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS
ON MONDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS INITIAL UPPER LOW, THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN ENERGETIC FULL LATITUDE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. MODEL SOLUTIONS,
PARTICULARLY THE EURO AND EURO AI ENSEMBLES, ADVERTISE A FAST,
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BY
TUESDAY. NEITHER LIFT NOR MOISTURE WILL BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH
THIS FEATURE, YET IT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SPAWN SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VIRTUALLY ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN RAIN-
FREE WITH THIS SYSTEM.
A MORE CONCERTED ATTEMPT AT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIMEFRAME, AS ANOTHER WEAKLY
AMPLIFIED TROUGH MOVES OUT OF MEXICO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL, AND MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT SUSTAINED LOW AND MID
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RAINFALL PROBABILITIES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY CATEGORIES FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND
WON'T BE A TOTAL WASHOUT, ENOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL BE SPREAD
ACROSS THIS FORECAST PERIOD TO POTENTIALLY IMPACT HALLOWEEN PLANS
AND OTHER ACTIVITIES.
DAY TO DAY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK, BUT WILL RECEDE CLOSER TO TYPICAL LATE OCTOBER VALUES
BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 848 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS AND SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 62 81 59 80 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 59 81 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 56 81 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 59 81 57 80 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 59 81 56 80 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 62 83 60 81 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 58 82 55 81 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 58 81 56 81 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 60 83 55 82 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 60 81 56 80 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BRADSHAW
LONG TERM....BRADSHAW
AVIATION...SHAMBURGER
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