618
FXUS64 KFWD 220036
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
736 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 108 TO 115
DEGREES EXPECTED.
- AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS, WITH HEAT CONCERNS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
SIGNIFICANT AND HAZARDOUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFLICT NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AS A LARGE RIDGE
OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. SUBSIDENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS RIDGE WILL
LEAD TO SUBSTANTIAL HEATING IN THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE, WHICH, COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS, WILL
PRODUCE HEAT INDICES IN EXCESS OF 110 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS. THE
PRIMARY REGION OF CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE BE GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35, AND NORTH OF I-20, WHERE AN EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. ELSEWHERE, A HEAT ADVISORY WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR HEAT INDICES ABOVE 105.
COOLING WILL BE LIMITED TONIGHT IN THE CENTRAL URBAN CORES WHERE
THE HEAT ISLAND EFFECT WILL BE MAXIMIZED. SOME LOCATIONS MAY ONLY
MANAGE LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S PRIOR TO DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY.
SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A BACKDOOR FRONT
SLIDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE RED RIVER INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
PROMOTE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. UNFORTUNATELY, MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SEND HEAT
INDICES ABOVE 110 DEGREES OVER MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
WEDNESDAY, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. AS A RESULT, THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL EXPAND TO INCLUDE ROUGHLY THE EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY, THE ONLY EXCEPTION
BEING THE EXTREME NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. EVEN IN THESE
SEPARATED LOCALES, RELIEF WILL BE MINOR, WITH HEAT ADVISORIES
STILL WARRANTED.
LATEST EXTENDED RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE BEGINNING TO FEATURE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
DUE POSSIBLY TO SOME ELEVATED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BEHIND THE
BACKDOOR SURFACE FRONT. ELECTED NOT TO BITE ON THIS PRECIPITATION
AT THIS TIME IN THE CURRENT FORECAST, BUT WOULDN'T RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY OCCURRING, ASSUMING THIS LIMITED
FORCING PERSISTS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES IN THE LONGER TERM FORECAST, AS THE
EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE HOLDS SWAY OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY AND LARGE, THE PRESENCE OF STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER WILL PROMOTE DAILY HIGHS ABOVE
THE CENTURY MARK THROUGH THE WEEKEND, INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
ONLY WILDCARD WILL BE THE FUTURE PROGRESSION OF BERTHA. SOME
LONGER RANGE MODELS BRING THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON THE SCOPE OF
THE REMNANT MOISTURE, SOME CLOUDS AND LIMITED CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED TO SOME OF THE CENTRAL
TEXAS ZONES IN THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY PERIOD. THIS WOULD
ALSO TEND TO KNOCK DAYTIME TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY WITHIN THESE
AREAS. MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS CONCERNING THE FUTURE TRACK AND
EVOLUTION OF BERTHA, SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
REMAINS MODERATE AT BEST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE PRIMARY
AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT TO NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10
KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW CAMS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF THE METROPLEX
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, CONFIDENCE IN ANY IMPACTS AT THE TAF SITES
REMAINS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 84 104 81 100 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 81 102 81 99 / 0 0 10 0
PARIS 79 98 74 94 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 81 102 79 99 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 81 101 78 97 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 85 104 81 100 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 80 101 77 98 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 82 102 79 98 / 0 10 10 0
TEMPLE 80 102 81 99 / 0 10 10 0
MINERAL WELLS 78 104 78 101 / 10 0 10 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091-100>102-
115>117-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TO 6 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR
TXZ091>093-100>105-107-115>123-130>135-143>148-157>162-174-175.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ092>095-
103>107-118>123.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ094-095-106-
129-141-142-156.
SHORT TERM...BRADSHAW
LONG TERM....BRADSHAW
AVIATION...12
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