138
FXUS64 KFWD 061034
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
534 AM CDT MON APR 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW DAYS OF NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT MON APR 6 2026
THE WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WHICH PROVIDED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AND LIGHT RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS IS NOW
HEADED EAST TO THE DEEP SOUTH, LEAVING RIDGING ALOFT IN ITS WAKE.
AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE AXIS WILL MIGRATE SLOWLY EAST FROM THE
PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST, SHIFTING WINDS FROM LIGHT NORTHEAST TO
LIGHT EAST, AND MAINTAINING THE DRY AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE.
THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY
WEATHER ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TO START THE WORK WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
THIS AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT MON APR 6 2026
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ENTERING THE WEST COAST WILL PROPAGATE
FAIRLY RAPIDLY EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, REACHING NORTH TEXAS
ON TUESDAY. A MOISTURE-STARVED ENVIRONMENT WILL ENSURE THAT LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL WILL BE RECEIVED AS THE SYSTEM PASSES
OVERHEAD, THOUGH A FEW SPOTS WILL LIKELY PICK UP TRACE AMOUNTS TO
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. THE RESULTING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL OTHERWISE KEEP SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN PLACE WITH HIGHS
TOPPING IN THE LOWER 70S. DECREASING CLOUDS AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL GENERATE NICE WEATHER
ON WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER
LOW SWINGING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST WILL FORCE
A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY, BUT THE
FRONT WILL STALL BEFORE REACHING THE RED RIVER. INCREASING RETURN
FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP THE
WARMING TREND GOING INTO THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING TO AROUND
80 THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BEGIN ON
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK, DRIVEN MAINLY BY A DEEP UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SEEN ON
SATELLITE SPIRALING OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE EAST AND REACH THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY, THEN DIG SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST TO BAJA CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY. RIPPLES
IN THE SUBSEQUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD HELP IGNITE
CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SOME OF
WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY IMPACT PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
FOR FRIDAY, IT LOOKS LIKE NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LIE
BETWEEN DRYLINE CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST AND SEABREEZE
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST, KEEPING THE AREA PREDOMINANTLY DRY,
BUT WILL INCLUDE SOME LOW-END POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
NORTHWEST.
STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING AS THE FIRST LEAD
SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, BRINGING AT LEAST SOME OF THE DRYLINE STORMS OVER THE BIG
COUNTRY EAST INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
THIS PATTERN WILL REPEAT SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH THE QUESTION
BEING JUST HOW STRONG THE CAP WILL BE AND FAR EAST EACH ROUND OF
CONVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO REACH. WILL KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE POPS
IN PLACE EACH EACH DAY FROM SATURDAY TO NEXT MONDAY, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF I-35 AND THE MOST LIKELY TIME BEING IN
THE EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE AT LEAST A LOW END SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT BASED ON THE PATTERN AND TIME OF YEAR, AND WE WILL
HAVE MORE INFORMATION REGARDING THESE AND OTHER DETAILS LATER THIS
WEEK. THE UPPER LOW ITSELF WILL EVENTUALLY BRING ONE LAST ROUND OF
STORMS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AROUND
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER IT PANS OUT, IT LOOKS LIKE A TYPICAL
SPRING PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE AS WE APPROACH MID APRIL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CDT MON APR 6 2026
CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND VFR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE DOMINATES. TAFS
WILL CONTAIN MORE THAN ONE LINE SIMPLY DUE TO A GRADUAL CHANGE IN
WIND DIRECTION. LIGHT NORTH WINDS AT THE PRESENT WILL SHIFT TO THE
EAST 15-17Z, THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KT UNTIL MID MORNING TUESDAY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 72 51 73 55 / 0 0 0 10
WACO 71 47 72 53 / 0 0 0 10
PARIS 70 45 71 52 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 71 46 72 51 / 0 0 0 10
MCKINNEY 71 47 72 53 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 73 51 73 55 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 71 47 73 53 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 74 48 75 54 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 72 47 73 53 / 0 0 0 10
MINERAL WELLS 72 46 72 51 / 0 0 0 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30
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