014
FXUS64 KFWD 290008
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
708 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
- THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, PARTICULARLY WHERE HEAVY RAIN REPEATEDLY MOVES OVER
THE SAME AREA.
- INCREASED CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH A COLD FRONT KEEPING THE COOLER AIR
IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY FROM THE METROPLEX INTO
NORTHEAST TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS FOCUSED NEAR A RESIDUAL LOW
TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE/THETA-E GRADIENT AS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSES THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS LONG AS THESE FEATURES
REMAIN FAVORABLY ALIGNED, WEAK ASCENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
PERIODICALLY REGENERATE CONVECTION. THIS SUBTLE, WEAKLY FORCED
SETUP HAS ALSO BEEN POORLY HANDLED BY THE CAMS, WHERE SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN THE ANALYZED MOISTURE AXIS AND EMBEDDED WAVE HAVE
RESULTED IN SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES IN CONVECTIVE PLACEMENT.
COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
SHORTWAVE DEPARTS AND FORCING BECOMES INCREASINGLY DISPLACED FROM
THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE GRADIENT.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL FOLLOW TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHILE ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS UPSTREAM. HURRICANE POLO
WILL MOVE INTO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER TODAY WHILE AN
UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH THROUGH CALIFORNIA. THIS TROUGH WILL CLOSE
OFF AND SLOW AS IT PIVOTS EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY, EVENTUALLY DRAWING POLO’S REMNANT MOISTURE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST INTO ITS CIRCULATION. MEANWHILE, STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN A RAPID RETURN OF GULF
MOISTURE INTO TEXAS. TUESDAY WILL THEREFORE LARGELY SERVE AS A
TRANSITION AND MOISTURE-LOADING PERIOD LOCALLY WITH INCREASING
CLOUD COVER, THOUGH MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT APPROACHES AND
THE INCREASINGLY DEEP MOISTURE PLUME SPREADS INTO NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT MON SEP 28
2026
A MULTI-DAY PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN WEDNESDAY AS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY THIS TIME, REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH POLO WILL HAVE BECOME ENTRAINED WITHIN
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WHILE A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET TRANSPORTS GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THIS
COMBINATION WILL PRODUCE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS
THE REGION, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING OR
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES. INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF
THE UPPER LOW, PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT, AND
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR REPEATED ROUNDS OF EFFICIENT, HEAVY
RAINFALL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THERE REMAINS MEANINGFUL UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS DEVELOPS, MUCH OF WHICH IS TIED TO THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW AND AN ACCOMPANYING DRY SLOT. A MORE
PROGRESSIVE/OPEN SYSTEM WOULD ALLOW THE DRY INTRUSION TO ADVANCE
FARTHER EAST ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS, SHORTENING THE
DURATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM WEST TO EAST WHILE SHIFTING THE
PERSISTENT MOISTURE-CONVERGENCE AXIS FARTHER EAST. CONVERSELY, A
DEEPER/SLOWER UPPER LOW WOULD DELAY THE DRY INTRUSION AND MAINTAIN
SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME FOR A LONGER
PERIOD, INCREASING THE RESIDENCE TIME OF THE HIGH-PW ENVIRONMENT
AND SUPPORTING HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS. THIS DISTINCTION WILL ALSO
DETERMINE WHERE BANDS OF CONVECTION REPEATEDLY DEVELOP AND TRAIN.
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR WIDESPREAD STORM TOTALS OF 2 TO 5
INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 7 INCHES CANNOT BE RULED OUT WHERE
REPEATED CONVECTION BECOMES ANCHORED ALONG A SLOW-MOVING
CONVERGENCE AXIS.
THE FLOODING THREAT SHOULD CONSEQUENTLY EVOLVE THROUGH THE EVENT
RATHER THAN PEAK EVERYWHERE SIMULTANEOUSLY. WEDNESDAY’S CONCERN
WILL INITIALLY BE DRIVEN BY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES AND
LOCALLY HIGH RAINFALL RATES, PARTICULARLY WHEREVER CONVECTION
REPEATEDLY TRACKS ACROSS THE SAME LOCATIONS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY, ANTECEDENT RAINFALL WILL INCREASINGLY REDUCE THE
ABILITY OF SOILS AND DRAINAGE SYSTEMS TO ACCOMMODATE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL, ALLOWING FLOODING TO BECOME MORE READILY REALIZED WITH
SUBSEQUENT ROUNDS. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL MAY GRADUALLY
SHIFT SOUTH TOWARD CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH
MEANINGFUL RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS A SECONDARY CONCERN AT THIS TIME, BUT
SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS,
PARTICULARLY NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF THE APPROACHING CONVECTION
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE DECREASES CONSIDERABLY LATE IN THE WEEK AS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LOW IS EJECTED
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SLOWER SYSTEM WOULD KEEP THE FRONT AND
DEEPER MOISTURE NEARBY AND ALLOW PERIODS OF RAIN TO PERSIST INTO
FRIDAY OR POTENTIALLY THE WEEKEND, WHILE A MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION WOULD BRING A QUICKER WEST-TO-EAST END TO PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL CONSIDERABLY FROM RECENT ANOMALOUSLY WARM
VALUES BENEATH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL COOLING POSSIBLE FOLLOWING THE EVENTUAL
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT AIRPORTS THIS TAF PERIOD
WITH JUST A FEW LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCT CIRRUS. THERE IS A
LOW (LESS THAN 15%) CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS TO REACH ACT FROM THE
SOUTH BETWEEN 12-15Z TUESDAY MORNING, BUT CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAF. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER
16Z TUESDAY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 74 95 76 93 / 10 0 0 50
WACO 73 94 75 95 / 0 0 0 50
PARIS 68 94 72 93 / 10 0 0 30
DENTON 73 94 75 94 / 20 0 0 60
MCKINNEY 70 94 73 93 / 10 0 0 50
DALLAS 75 95 76 95 / 10 0 0 50
TERRELL 70 95 73 94 / 10 0 0 40
CORSICANA 71 95 73 94 / 10 0 0 40
TEMPLE 72 95 73 97 / 0 0 10 60
MINERAL WELLS 71 93 72 92 / 20 0 0 70
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...SHAMBURGER
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