493
FXUS64 KFWD 090128
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
828 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER AND MOSTLY RAIN-FREE WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THIS WEEK WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 103
DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON.
- ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST
TEXAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE OF AROUND 10%.
- CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RESUME FROM LATE
FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE PREVALENT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 70S. HEAT INDICES COULD TOP OUT BETWEEN 100 AND 103 DEGREES,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE METROPLEX THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
ALTHOUGH NOTHING SEVERE IS EXPECTED. AT THE UPPER LEVELS A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS BUILT IN ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND THE WESTERN
GULF, WHICH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW. ANOTHER ROUND OF HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW 90S. HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100. AN INLAND SEA BREEZE MAY TRIGGER BRIEF
SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN CENTRAL
TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WERE KEPT LOW (<10%) FOR NOW.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
THE 590DAM SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS TEXAS AND THE
WESTERN GULF COAST INTO THURSDAY ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE WEAKENED
SLIGHTLY BY BROAD-SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL US. MODEL
CONSENSUS SHOWS 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 18-20 DEG C EACH DAY.
SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S SHOULD CONTINUE WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, SO HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 CAN BE
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN THE 500MB RIDGE. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT AN EAST-WEST
ORIENTED COLD FRONT APPROACHING NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THIS MAY INTRODUCE SOME LOW (<20%) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH TEXAS, MAINLY FROM I-30 NORTHWARD. IN
ADDITION, THE GFS DIGS A STRONGER TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
SUNDAY WHICH WOULD INCREASE OUR RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THIS SOLUTION AND A
LOT WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GOES. FOR
NOW, RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY WERE KEPT TO 30-40%.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 820 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
VFR AND SOUTH FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE
FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE TAF WILL BE RELATIVELY GUSTY, BUT SINCE
THE AIRPORTS WILL REMAIN ON S FLOW AND THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED,
AN ADDITIONAL LINE WAS NOT INCLUDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR STRATUS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. SOME OF THE RECENT GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS
SHEET OF STRATUS WILL BE RAGGED WITH A 40% CHANCE OF PERIODS OF
VFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. IT IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE FOR US TO
TELL WHEN AND WHERE CLEARING WILL OCCUR, SO WE OPTED TO PREVAIL
MVFR FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME INSTEAD OF INCLUDING A TEMPO
OR ADDITIONAL CHANGE LINES.
THE STRATUS SHOULD LIFT/SCATTER IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING WITH
VFR AND S FLOW PREVAILING TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 76 92 77 94 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 74 90 75 92 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 75 90 76 90 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 76 91 77 93 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 76 91 77 92 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 77 94 77 95 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 75 92 75 93 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 75 94 76 95 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 74 91 75 92 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 74 92 74 95 / 0 10 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...KEARNEY
LONG TERM....KEARNEY
AVIATION...BONNETTE
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