540
FXUS64 KFWD 192321
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
621 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW.
AVOID OUTDOOR BURNING AS GRASS FIRES WILL EASILY IGNITE.
- RECORD-BREAKING HEAT WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT-
RELATED ILLNESS. PREPARE NOW FOR THIS WEEKEND'S HOT WEATHER!
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE, RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR TRANSITION TO SUMMER-
LIKE TEMPERATURES, IS NOW ATOP ARIZONA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
EASTWARD THROUGH TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE ON
THEIR WAY TO THE 80S WITH A FEW 90S IN THE BOWIE & GRAHAM AREA IN
NORTH TEXAS. THIS HEAT IS MORE REMINISCENT OF LATE MAY, WHEN OUR
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY-SPEAKING, MID-MARCH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RIGHT
AROUND 70 DEGREES -- OUR FORECAST HIGHS THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS
WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE THAT 70 DEGREE MARK.
WITH THE RIDGE'S INFLUENCE BECOMING STRONGER TOMORROW, OUR
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS EAST TEXAS.
LOW TEMPERATURES BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT WILL STAY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AROUND
THE DFW METROPLEX DUE TO THE HEAT-ISLAND EFFECT.
GIVEN THE CONTINUED WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 20% EACH AFTERNOON, THE POTENTIAL FOR GRASS
FIRES TO START WILL CONTINUE. LOW WINDS, HOWEVER, SHOULD HELP
MITIGATE RAPID SPREAD.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE YEAR SO FAR WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND WITH
GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO SHOW A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN
ANOMALOUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES. THIS TYPE OF HEAT IS NORMALLY
EXPERIENCED IN LATE JUNE AND INTO JULY -- THIS PUTS US ABOUT 3
MONTHS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. HIGHS EARLIER THIS WEEK WERE IN THE 40S
AND 50S WITH MULTIPLE LOCATIONS DIPPING TO FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
WITH SUCH A RAPID TRANSITION FROM WINTER TO SUMMER, OUR BODIES
ARE UNLIKELY TO BE ACCLIMATED TO THIS HEAT. IF YOU HAVE PLANS TO
BE OUTDOORS FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF THIS THIS WEEKEND, START
HYDRATING TODAY! ENSURE YOU TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO
AVOID ANY TYPE OF HEAT RELATED ILLNESS. IN ADDITION, DON'T FORGET
TO CHECK THE BACK SEAT OF YOUR VEHICLE. WITHOUT AIR CONDITIONING,
ENCLOSED VEHICLES WILL BECOME DANGEROUSLY HOT, PUTTING THE LIFE OF
ANY PERSON OR ANIMAL AT RISK!
BELOW IS A TABLE OF THE FORECAST HIGHS AT BOTH DFW & WACO:
DFW
FORECASTRECORD
FRIDAY 9292
SATURDAY97100
SUNDAY9893
WACO
FORECASTRECORD
FRIDAY 9088
SATURDAY9593
SUNDAY9589
THE HOTTEST DAY THIS WEEKEND WILL LIKELY BE SUNDAY AS MULTIPLE
MECHANISMS COME TOGETHER WITH EACH OF THEM RESULTING IN
REINFORCING THE ALREADY HOT CONDITIONS. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
RESULTING IN DOWNSLOPING, ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL COMPRESSION FROM
THE INCOMING COLD FRONT, WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES INTO THE TRIPLE
DIGIT MARK IN FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE REST OF NORTH TEXAS IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 90S WITH MID 90S ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS. THE POTENTIAL FOR 100 DEGREE TEMPERATURES IN THE
DALLAS/FORT WORTH AREA IS LOW, HOWEVER, THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
AND STRENGTH OF THE WINDS MAY LEAD TO MORE RAPID WARMING THAN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED. IF 100 DEGREES IS REACHED AT DFW ON SUNDAY,
THIS WOULD BE THE 3RD EARLIEST 100 DEGREE OCCURRENCE SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY, BRINGING SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. BY MONDAY, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S
WHICH IS STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
THE "COOL" DOWN ON MONDAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS WE COMMENCE YET
ANOTHER WARMING TREND. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, MUCH OF NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE BACK IN THE 90S WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY SOUTHERLY WITH SPEEDS STILL NEAR 13-15 KTS,
WHICH WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
LESS THAN 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND
MIDDAY AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW, SUSTAINED NEAR 8-11
KTS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE WINDS SHIFT IN THE AFTERNOON TO A
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION FOR D10, BUT THIS IS THE UNLIKELY SCENARIO
WITH ONLY THE SWERLY SHIFT NOTED IN THE TAF. EVEN IF THE WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NW, WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. FOR
WACO, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 60 92 63 97 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 56 90 60 95 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 56 86 59 90 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 55 91 58 95 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 57 90 60 94 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 60 92 64 97 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 57 89 59 93 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 59 89 61 96 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 54 90 58 97 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 55 94 58 98 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ
AVIATION...GORDON
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