747
FXUS64 KFWD 032339
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
639 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE
MINOR FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN RECENTLY SATURATED AREAS.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AS
DRIER AIR BRINGS DECREASING CLOUDS AND AN END TO THE RAIN.
- DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL NEXT WEEK WITH COOL MORNINGS
AND INCREASING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDES A GOOD LOOK AT
THE UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR RECENT STRETCH OF
WET WEATHER. THE CIRCULATION IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND
ITS EASTERN FLANK WHILE NOTABLY DRIER AIR IS ALREADY WRAPPING INTO
WEST TEXAS ON ITS BACKSIDE. THIS EVOLUTION IS ALSO BECOMING
APPARENT ON RADAR, WHERE THE MORE PERSISTENT RAIN HAS BECOME
FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WHILE
COVERAGE CONTINUES TO DIMINISH FARTHER WEST. RAIN CHANCES HAVE
THEREFORE BEEN ADJUSTED FROM THE NBM TO BETTER MATCH CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS AND THE EXPECTED EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM.
THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN
WITHIN A VERY MOIST COLUMN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON,
SO POCKETS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE DESPITE VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY. THIS WILL BE MORE OF A
RAINFALL-EFFICIENCY PROBLEM THAN A CONVECTIVE ONE, WITH A DEEPLY
SATURATED ATMOSPHERE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGH RAIN RATES
BENEATH THE STRONGER ECHOES. THIS IS MOST NOTEWORTHY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED CONSIDERABLE RAINFALL
RECENTLY, WHERE ADDITIONAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED RUNOFF ISSUES. OTHERWISE, THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
UPPER SYSTEM AND DECREASING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD KEEP THE
FLOODING THREAT LOCALIZED. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE TRANSITION TO DRIER WEATHER WILL ACCELERATE ON SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER CIRCULATION MOVES EAST AND THE RESERVOIR OF MUCH DRIER AIR
CURRENTLY OVER WEST TEXAS SPREADS INTO THE REGION ON NORTHERLY
FLOW. RAIN SHOULD STEADILY END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND
OR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES
WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART. INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND CONTINUED DRY-AIR ADVECTION WILL THEN ALLOW CLOUDS
TO GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THE RETURN OF SUNSHINE
WILL SUPPORT A WARMER AFTERNOON DESPITE CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW,
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL SETTLE INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
NEXT WEEK AS THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES RETREATS WELL TO OUR
NORTH AND WEAK RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIR ARRIVING SUNDAY WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, FAVORING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A
FAIRLY LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY FALL INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S EARLY IN THE WEEK,
FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S. GRADUALLY INCREASING
HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A WARMING TREND LATER
IN THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S BY
FRIDAY.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO INCREASE BEYOND THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH. THERE IS PRESENTLY NO CLEAR
MECHANISM TO BRING THAT MOISTURE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AFFECT NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY, SO THE DRY FORECAST REMAINS
FAVORED. TRENDS IN THE WESTERN GULF AND ADJACENT LOWER LATITUDES
WILL BEAR WATCHING HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING AND THIS TREND WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIGHT RAIN WILL BE INTERMITTENT WITH AN
UPTICK IN COVERAGE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT. CEILINGS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN MVFR WITH HEIGHTS AROUND 1500 FT BUT THESE HAVE
TRENDED LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING AND WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS AROUND
700 FT ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BY EARLY
MORNING WITH CIGS IMPROVING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS
WILL LIKELY PREVAIL BY MID AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS
ON SUNDAY.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 68 81 66 84 / 40 30 10 0
WACO 67 81 66 83 / 40 40 10 0
PARIS 64 84 61 84 / 40 10 0 0
DENTON 65 82 63 83 / 40 20 0 0
MCKINNEY 64 82 62 82 / 40 20 10 0
DALLAS 68 82 67 84 / 40 30 10 0
TERRELL 65 82 64 82 / 50 30 0 0
CORSICANA 66 81 65 82 / 50 40 10 0
TEMPLE 66 82 66 84 / 40 40 10 0
MINERAL WELLS 63 80 61 83 / 40 30 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...DUNN
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