808
FXUS64 KFWD 102335
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
635 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20 THE REST OF THIS EVENING.
- THERE WILL BE A LOW (20-30%) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS ON
FRIDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MOST
AREAS RAIN-FREE THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR A SOUTHWARD-MOVING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20 THIS
EVENING BEFORE WINDING DOWN AFTER SUNSET. THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS
CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS, BUT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. A FEW LANDSPOUTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TODAY AS WELL IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG LOW-
LEVEL INSTABILITY AND VERY WEAK FLOW/SHEAR, BUT THIS POTENTIAL
WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AS CIN BEGINS TO
INCREASE. A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS STILL
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BEFORE ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING TOMORROW.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES, WITH A DECREASE IN COVERAGE EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS STORMS MOVE INTO THE METROPLEX.
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH ANY OF THE
ACTIVITY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE VERY LOW
GIVEN THE LACK OF VERTICAL SHEAR, BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST
CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THIS FIRST ROUND LATE THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLIGHTLY BACKED
OFF ON THIS POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, WE WILL CARRY LOW
(20-30%) POPS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT.
ON FRIDAY, THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN DISPLACED TO OUR WEST, WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WITH NO REAL SURFACE FORCING MECHANISM FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, POPS HAVE BEEN BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY, WITH THE BEST COVERAGE LIKELY TO
BE ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.
ASIDE FROM THE RAIN CHANCES, HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE
THE REGION, THOUGH WE SHOULD GET A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM WIDESPREAD
TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW. UNFORTUNATELY, GIVEN
THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY STILL
REACH ABOVE 100 DEGREES AREAWIDE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ONCE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT, HOT AND RAIN-FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE THE
HOTTEST DAY, WITH WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES. WHILE
THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE MEMBERS THAT WE'LL
BE HOT AND RAIN-FREE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK, THERE IS QUITE A
BIT OF DIVERGENCE FROM LATE IN THE WEEK AND BEYOND. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY FAVORING THE RETURN OF A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
(PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY SOME COOLER AIR) LATE NEXT WEEK OR NEXT
WEEKEND. WHILE THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIMESCALE,
THERE'S AT LEAST A LITTLE BIT OF HOPE THAT RELIEF FROM THE
PERPETUAL SUMMER HEAT MAY BE JUST ON THE HORIZON.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS COME TO AN END AT THE D10 TAF SITES, WITH
ONLY LIGHT RAIN STILL PRESENT NEARBY. VCSH WILL BRIEFLY BE
INDICATED TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE A MORE TRANQUIL
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS ARE STILL NORTHERLY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY A FEW HOURS AGO, BUT WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN TO EAST AND THEN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT
6-8 HOURS WHILE SPEEDS REMAIN LIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY REDEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING AGAIN TOMORROW, BUT THE CHANCES
FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO IMPACTS THE TAF SITES IS TOO LOW (LESS THAN
20%) TO WARRANT INCLUSION LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FOR WACO, CONVECTIVE IMPACTS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
THROUGH ABOUT 02Z, AND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY BRIEFLY SHIFT
WINDS TO NORTHWESTERLY THERE BETWEEN 00-02Z. HOWEVER, MOST
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE AIRPORT THROUGH
THE REST OF TONIGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 79 98 79 101 / 50 20 0 0
WACO 76 99 77 100 / 20 20 10 0
PARIS 74 94 74 98 / 40 50 10 10
DENTON 75 98 76 100 / 50 20 10 0
MCKINNEY 75 96 75 99 / 40 30 10 10
DALLAS 79 99 80 102 / 40 30 0 0
TERRELL 75 98 75 100 / 30 30 10 0
CORSICANA 76 98 76 100 / 20 30 10 0
TEMPLE 74 99 75 101 / 20 20 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 72 99 73 102 / 50 20 10 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM....BARNES
AVIATION...STALLEY
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