238
FXUS64 KFWD 121104
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
604 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA
FROM TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH PRIMARILY A THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS
AND HAIL.
- SEASONABLY HOT AND RAIN-FREE WEATHER WILL RESUME LATE IN THE
WEEK, WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE UPPER 90S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 534 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
OUTFLOW FROM A WEAKENING MCS IN OKLAHOMA IS CROSSING THE RED
RIVER INTO NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING, ACCOMPANIED BY
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BEFORE THIS OUTFLOW EVENTUALLY SLOWS AND STALLS, LIKELY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THIS WEST-EAST ORIENTED
BOUNDARY SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT FROM MIDDAY
THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING HOURS WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE CWA. POPS HAVE BEEN
REFINED WITH THIS MORNING'S UPDATE TO CAPTURE THESE TRENDS THOUGH
THE NEXT ~12 HOURS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BEGIN TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS. THIS WILL BE DUE A NORTHWESTWARD SHIFT OF THE UPPER RIDGE
AND A SLOW-MOVING MID-LEVEL EASTERLY WAVE/LOW WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
THIS PATTERN SHIFT IS ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO CONVECTION IN
EASTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING, SOME OF WHICH MAY ENCROACH
ON OUR TEXOMA AREAS AROUND SUNRISE AS NEW DEVELOPMENT
PROGRESSIVELY OCCURS ALONG A CONSOLIDATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR NEW
DEVELOPMENT IN NORTH TEXAS HEADING INTO THE PEAK HEATING HOURS
TODAY, WHILE ADDITIONAL WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH WITHIN INCREASING MOISTURE CONTENT WHILE
CAPPING EASILY ERODES. WHILE A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT, THE DYNAMIC ASCENT FROM THE EASTERLY
WAVE WILL AT LEAST ALLOW ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TO PERSIST OUTSIDE OF PEAK DIURNAL HEATING HOURS, WITH ANOTHER
BLOSSOMING OF CONVECTION AIDED BY DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION AGAIN ON
MONDAY.
RICH MOISTURE CONTENT WITH PW VALUES EXCEEDING 2" WILL ALLOW FOR
FOR VERY EFFICIENT RAIN RATES DURING THIS ENTIRE TIME PERIOD,
LIKELY ON THE ORDER OF 2-3" PER HOUR. AS A RESULT, LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ALL ACTIVITY, WHICH
WILL BE FURTHER ACCENTUATED BY SLOW STORM MOTIONS WITH WEAK FLOW
THROUGH THE COLUMN. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SECONDARY THREAT FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS AND A TERTIARY HAIL THREAT,
ALTHOUGH THESE STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE HAZARDS SHOULD STAY QUITE
ISOLATED. FOR THE MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS, THIS WILL LARGELY BE A
BENEFICIAL MID-SUMMER RAINFALL EVENT, WHICH WILL ALSO SERVE TO
KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN BELOW NORMAL IN THE PRESENCE OF INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN-COOLED OUTFLOWS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS ASCENT
FORM THE UPPER LOW REACHES ITS MAXIMUM ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME
TUESDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20, WITH ACTIVITY REMAINING MORE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED FOR MOST OF NORTH TEXAS. LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. OVERALL, THE THREE-DAY
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE HIGHLY ERRATIC DUE TO THE SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF PRECIPITATION. WHILE SOME UNLUCKY AREAS MAY
MISS OUT ON RAINFALL ENTIRELY THROUGH THESE FEW DAYS, OTHERS WILL
HAVE SEEN MULTI-INCH RAINFALL TOTALS IN A SHORT TIME PERIOD. FOR
THIS REASON, QPF MESSAGING IN THIS TYPE OF REGIME IS NEARLY
IMPOSSIBLE, SINCE MODEL AVERAGES THAT ARE SPATIALLY SMOOTHED WILL
BE COMPLETELY UNREPRESENTATIVE OF THE FINAL OBSERVED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WHICH WILL TAKE ON A MUCH MORE BIMODAL DISTRIBUTION.
BY MIDWEEK, AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
WIND DOWN WITH LINGERING 20-30% POPS ON WEDNESDAY AND ROUGHLY 10%
CHANCES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH
SUBSIDENCE TAKING CONTROL. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER 90S
FOLLOWING THE PRECEDING FEW DAYS OF BELOW NORMAL HIGHS DUE TO
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM A DECAYING MCS IS ADVANCING SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS THE D10 AIRPORTS AS OF 11Z, AND MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF
NORTH WIND SHIFT AROUND 14Z SHOULD IT CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT
TRAJECTORY. THIS FEATURE IS ALSO ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
SHOWERS, WHICH COULD ENCROACH ON THE TAF SITES BY MID MORNING.
THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW IS LIKELY TO EVENTUALLY STALL IN THE VICINITY
OF THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS BY MIDDAY, AND WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE TIMING OF TSRA HAS BEEN ADVANCED
FORWARD A COUPLE OF HOURS FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS WITH DEVELOPMENT
LIKELY TO BEGIN EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR THIS FEATURE. A
RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING, AND WHILE THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO IMPACT THE AIRPORTS DURING THIS TIME, THE
POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO CARRY ADDITIONAL TS MENTIONS IN THE TAFS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 94 76 90 74 / 50 50 50 30
WACO 93 75 89 73 / 30 50 70 60
PARIS 91 72 89 72 / 60 40 30 10
DENTON 93 73 91 72 / 50 50 50 20
MCKINNEY 92 74 89 73 / 50 50 50 10
DALLAS 95 76 91 74 / 50 50 50 20
TERRELL 92 73 89 72 / 50 50 60 20
CORSICANA 94 76 90 74 / 40 50 70 40
TEMPLE 94 75 90 72 / 20 30 60 60
MINERAL WELLS 92 72 89 70 / 50 60 70 30
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...STALLEY
LONG TERM....STALLEY
AVIATION...STALLEY
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