524
FXUS64 KFWD 172353
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
653 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRIER AND HOTTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING INTO THE 90S AND LOWER-100S.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
THE UPPER LOW THAT'S BEEN PLAGUING THE STATE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS IS FINALLY TRACKING OUT OF THE AREA. HIGHER HEIGHTS BUILDING IN
ACROSS EAST TEXAS, AND THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE, HAS LED TO MUCH
QUIETER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED CHANCE (15-20%) OF
SHOWERS OR STORMS REMAINS FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THE
FEW SHOWERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ARE MOVING AT A MUCH QUICKER PACE
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS, LIMITING THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING, BUT KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR SOME GUSTY
DOWNBURST WINDS. WHAT SHOWERS OR STORMS DO DEVELOP SHOULD TAPER OFF
AGAIN AROUND SUNSET. THANKS TO THIS MORNING'S CLOUD COVER AND
ABUNDANT SURFACE MOISTURE,, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES STICK AROUND
FOR ONE MORE DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY, BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND A WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES
RETURN TO NEAR-NORMAL VALUES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS
WEEKEND, AND STUBBORNLY STICKS AROUND THROUGH THE COMING WORK-WEEK.
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, KEEPING THINGS WARM AND QUIET THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S, AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-107. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE NEAR-
ZERO THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
THE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN OUR AREA HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED THIS
EVENING, AND GENERALLY PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW MORNING FROM AROUND 11Z TO 16Z, TEMPORARY
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
BEING NEAR KACT. HOWEVER, VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN IN THE
AFTERNOON FOR ALL LOCATIONS. THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING,
PREVAILING SOUTHERLY WINDS AT AROUND 10-15 KTS ARE EXPECTED. RAIN
CHANCES ARE LESS THAN 10% ON SATURDAY.
PURLEE
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 76 96 77 98 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 76 94 75 96 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 74 94 75 96 / 10 0 0 0
DENTON 76 96 76 97 / 10 10 0 0
MCKINNEY 76 96 76 97 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 78 96 78 99 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 75 95 75 97 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 76 94 76 97 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 75 93 74 95 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 73 94 73 96 / 0 10 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BEALO
LONG TERM....BEALO
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