041
FXUS64 KFWD 190749
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
249 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING. LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE METROPLEX.
- THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. PERIODS
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL LEAD TO
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WINDS, TORNADOES AND FLASH FLOODING ALL POSSIBLE.
THE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
STATE REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA AS OF THIS EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM THE EAST,
SENDING COMPACT SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS EACH
SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENSUE.
THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY AS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MARCHES EASTWARD. AS THIS LINE
APPROACHES OUR REGION, THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC PARAMETERS ARE
HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WITH ~2000 J/KG OF CAPE
AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 50 KTS, LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS. THE TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW WITH
THIS NEW THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, HOWEVER, IT WILL NOT BE 0.
INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY WANE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE
"CAP" STRENGTHENS CLOSER TO SUNRISE. ADDITIONALLY, THE SHORTWAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ONGOING STORMS WILL BE SHIFTING EASTWARD,
REDUCING THE AMOUNT OF OVERALL FORCING FOR ASCENT.
A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY, AIDING IN LOCALIZED LOW-LEVEL
ASCENT DUE TO THE STRONG WARM-AIR ADVECTION. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
AS THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO INCH CLOSER, MORE ROBUST
AND WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT AS WE
APPROACH SUNSET. SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS QUICKLY INCREASE AS A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. WITH CAPE VALUES ONCE AGAIN
INCREASING TO AROUND 2000 J/KG, EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 55 KTS AND
0-1KM SRH OF AROUND 225 M2/S2, ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A LOCALIZED TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY MATERIALIZE NEAR AND
WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN NORTH TEXAS AS WINDS GRADUALLY
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING AFOREMENTIONED
LOW. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DICTATE
WHERE THE LOCALIZED TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. AREAS WITH
THE HIGHEST FLOODING POTENTIAL ARE NOW IN A FLOOD WATCH. AVERAGE
RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE FLOOD WATCH ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN
2-4", WITH A 1 IN 3 CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 5".
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT, SENDING
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS EASTWARD. THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL RESIDE ALONG AND WEST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. DAMAGING WINDS AND EMBEDDED QUICK SPIN-UP TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE. ANY STORM
THAT REMAINS MORE SUPERCELLULAR IN NATURE WILL POSE A LARGE HAIL
THREAT.
AS THE LINE OF STORMS REACHES THE I-35 CORRIDOR CLOSER TO SUNRISE
SUNDAY, STORM INTENSITY WILL ONCE AGAIN DIMINISH WITH LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT BECOMING REMOVED FROM THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY, HOWEVER, THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE IN THE MORNING HOURS.
HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS IN THE BRAZOS
VALLEY REGION AS THEY WILL REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE, LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE ON MONDAY.
THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ALONG AN ACTIVE MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL ARRIVE ON TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, WE WILL SEE
THE STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF OUR AREA RETRACTING NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. THIS WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY, INCREASING IN COVERAGE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE FOLLOWING SHORTWAVES MOVE
OVERHEAD. WHILE NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN ALL DAY EVERY DAY,
THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SOME WILL BE
MODERATE OR HEAVY AT TIMES. DETAILS ABOUT THE TIMING OF THE HEAVY
RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE ASSESSED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS PREDICTABILITY AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES. ADDITIONALLY, DEPENDING ON WHERE ANY SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETTLES, THERE COULD BE AN INCREASED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AT
THIS TIME, LATE THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE THE PERIODS
WHERE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF STORMS AND PERHAPS SOME THREAT FOR
STRONG/SEVERE WEATHER. BEYOND THIS, IT LOOKS LIKE MORE ROUNDS OF
RAIN ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURE WISE...WE WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S/80S, BUT THE LOWS WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE
MAINLY IN THE 60S EACH NIGHT.
SANCHEZ
AVIATION
/NEW/
/06Z TAFS/
A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR IS ONGOING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD. BY 09Z, ALL TAF SITES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH A FEW STORMS JUST
WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE IMMEDIATE DFW METROPLEX TAF SITES.
CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE NORTH TEXAS TAF SITES
HAS INCREASED, THEREFORE, TSRA HAS BEEN ADDED, MAINLY BETWEEN
11-14Z THIS MORNING.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST BEYOND 14Z BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING IN AREAL COVERAGE AFTER 18Z. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
BREAK FROM THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
ANOTHER THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS AFTER 00Z SUNDAY.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS EVENING WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HERNANDEZ
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED TODAY ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS. EVEN IF ACTIVATION IS NOT LOCALLY REQUESTED, ANY REPORTS
OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE
APPRECIATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 79 63 75 54 80 / 90 80 70 5 0
WACO 83 64 78 53 82 / 50 40 70 10 5
PARIS 80 65 75 51 77 / 60 70 80 10 0
DENTON 76 58 74 48 79 / 90 80 60 0 0
MCKINNEY 78 63 73 52 78 / 80 80 70 5 0
DALLAS 80 63 76 55 80 / 80 70 70 5 0
TERRELL 81 65 75 52 78 / 60 60 80 10 5
CORSICANA 84 68 78 55 81 / 50 40 80 20 10
TEMPLE 84 65 79 53 84 / 40 40 70 10 10
MINERAL WELLS 80 58 76 49 82 / 90 80 40 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR TXZ091-092-
100-101-115-116.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ091-092-100-101.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ129-
130-141>143.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page