207
FXUS64 KFWD 020010
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
710 PM CDT SUN AUG 1 2021
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
UPDATE:
/TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING/
A VERY BUSY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PERIOD AS EXPECTED,
AS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS (A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE FROM STRONG AUGUST HEATING AND INSTABILITY) HAVE OCCURRED
ACROSS BASICALLY ALL BUT MAYBE EASTERN CENTRAL TX. THAT MAY
CHANGE LATER THIS EVENING, AS OUTFLOWS INTERACT WITH VERY WARM AND
UNSTABLE AIR. THE ACTUAL SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT IS HARD TO MAKE OUT
DUE IT'S SHALLOW NATURE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, BUT APPEARS TO BE
FROM COOPER AND GREENVILLE, TO THE NW DFW METROPLEX, TO CISCO AND
EASTLAND AT THIS HOUR. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SINK
SOUTHWARD AS A SHORTWAVE CONTINUES MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA TOWARD
THE ARK-LA-TEX THIS EVENING.
WITH SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVING COOLED AND STABILIZED THE
LOW LEVELS AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY, SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
WERE HARD TO DECIPHER THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, THOUGH I STAYED
TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF THE NBM, AS ANOTHER SECONDARY MID LEVEL
IMPULSE AND ELEVATED 925-850MB FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE RED
RIVER LATE AND LINGERS OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY. LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE UPPER 60S AND 70S SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S,
AS PATCHY SUNSHINE/INSOLATION HOLDS OFF UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON.
A FEW AREAS THAT CAN BREAK OUT MAY REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S FROM
DFW AND POINTS NW, BUT THAT'S A BIG IF. BETTER RAIN CHANCES OCCURS
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS, WHERE A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY OCCUR. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED COVERAGE NEAR THE 850MB FRONT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. A
LOT OF FACTORS TO PLAY IN HERE REGARDING ENVIRONMENT, MOISTURE,
AND FORCING MECHANISMS, SO WE'LL JUST HAVE TO LET THE ATMOSPHERE
PLAY OUT AND SEE WHERE BOTH THE SURFACE AND ELEVATED FRONTS LAY
OUT DURING PEAK HEATING. WITH ALL THESE STORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES,
IT'S ANYONE'S GUESS AT THIS POINT.
CONTINUED N/NE WINDS MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS SHOULD MAKE IT ALMOST FEEL SPRING-LIKE WITH LOWS FALLING
INTO THE 60S MANY AREAS WITH A NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZE OF 10-15
MPH. CLOUDS HOLD ON A BIT LONGER ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AS LOW
TEMPERATURES REMAINS UP IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S MOSTLY WITH A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
05/
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY/
MORNING CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHWARD MOVING GRAVITY WAVES HAS
WEAKENED AS ANTICIPATED WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH
NORTH TEXAS. THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION BUT LITTLE SHEAR; THEREFORE, WELL ORGANIZED STORMS WITH
LONG LIVED UPDRAFTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER, HOT SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND A FAIRLY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL RESULT IN
EFFICIENT HYDROMETEOR EVAPORATION AND A POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS.
LIGHT STEERING WINDS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES
WILL ALSO RESULT IN SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD AND A SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE EASTERN U.S. LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF
STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE BOUNDARY, BUT SOME ELEVATED STORMS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WELL BEHIND THE FRONT IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING
MID LEVEL ENERGY. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING MORNING
ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND STORMS; HOWEVER, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 70S LATE THIS MORNING AND TEMPERATURES WARMING AS EXPECTED,
WE STILL FEEL THAT MOST LOCATIONS IN THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY
WILL SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES REACH 105 AT SOME POINT IN TIME THIS
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, WE WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY IN
PLACE FOR NOW. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY
OF EXCESSIVELY HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR A LITTLE WHILE WITH HIGHS
MONDAY STRUGGLING TO REACH 90 IN MOST LOCATIONS.
79
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 228 PM CDT SUN AUG 1 2021/
/MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD/
MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY, LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT
CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY ON
TUESDAY, WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS WEST TEXAS WILL KEEP MOSTLY
RAIN-FREE WEATHER IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY, OUTSIDE OF A FEW ISOLATED
AFTERNOON STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS. ON THURSDAY, A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY TAKE A DIVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. IT'S POSSIBLE THIS FEATURE WILL OFFER ENOUGH ASCENT FOR A
FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY; HOWEVER, MODEL DISAGREEMENT IS CURRENTLY RESULTING IN
QUITE A BIT OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.
DESPITE THE LATE-WEEK UNCERTAINTY, THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT THAT
THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN AGAIN THIS WEEKEND,
RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RETURN TO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S BY
SATURDAY, WITH THE HEAT CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BARNES
AVIATION
/NEW/
UPDATE:
/00Z TAFS/
PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE TIMING/ENDING OF CONVECTIVE RAIN CHANCES,
AS WELL AS CONCERNS FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE D10, WITH
MVFR/IFR AT ACT BETWEEN 09Z-15Z MONDAY MORNING.
TS CONTINUE MAINLY NW OF THE D10 AIRPORTS, BUT SOME IMPACTS WILL
BE FELT AT AFW/FTW AS THEY LAY RIGHT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THIS ACTIVITY. TEMPO IFR/MVFR VSBYS FROM +TSRA REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH 01Z. REST OF THE D10 AND WACO SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH
MULTIPLE CIG LEVELS WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH 09Z AND
VCSH WILL SUFFICE.
AS THE ELEVATED 925MB-850MB FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH IN CONJUNCTION
WITH ANOTHER MID LEVEL IMPULSE LATER TONIGHT, ISO-SCT SHRA AND
TSRA MAY REDEVELOP BY 08Z-09Z ACROSS THE D10 AND AROUND 12Z AT
ACT, SO VCTS WILL BE WARRANTED BETWEEN 10Z-14Z WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF MVFR CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS, WITH EVEN IFR AT ACT CONSIDERING
THE SHALLOWER FRONTAL SLOPE. OUTSIDE OF VARIABLE WINDS 10-15 KNOTS
THROUGH MID EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS IN/NEAR ANY TS THAT
HANG ON, THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL BE N/NE AROUND 10 KNOTS.
VFR WITH VCTS CHANCES RETURN BY 18Z AND AFTER MONDAY, PRIMARILY S
OF THE ELEVATED FRONT AND I-20 CORRIDOR, AS STRONG HEATING WORKS
UPON PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND GOOD INSTABILITY ALOFT. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW, HOWEVER, CONSIDERING ALL THE UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING OF
FEATURES AND HOW MUCH WE HEAT UP. WINDS WILL REMAIN N/NE 10-15 KTS
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.
05/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 73 89 71 91 71 / 70 50 20 5 5
WACO 75 89 71 91 72 / 80 80 30 10 5
PARIS 72 85 68 87 68 / 80 70 5 5 5
DENTON 71 89 67 90 69 / 80 50 10 5 0
MCKINNEY 71 88 69 90 69 / 70 50 5 5 5
DALLAS 75 88 73 91 72 / 70 60 20 5 5
TERRELL 72 86 69 89 70 / 80 60 20 5 5
CORSICANA 75 87 71 90 71 / 90 80 30 10 5
TEMPLE 73 88 71 91 71 / 80 80 30 20 5
MINERAL WELLS 70 87 66 89 67 / 70 60 5 5 5
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ094-095-104>107-
118>123-133>135-145>148-158>162-174-175.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page