203
FXUS64 KFWD 161116
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
516 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1/2 MILE IN
SOME SPOTS THIS MORNING.
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
STARTS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE FAIRLY
EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND WE'RE ALREADY
SEEING QUITE A RANGE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS
RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S TO MID 50S DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND WIND
SPEED. FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT, WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WITH SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE STATE
LIMITING OPTIMAL COOLING. OUR MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP WITH WET SOILS IN PLACE AND
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR THE DEWPOINT. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS
WILL DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE BENEATH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 70S.
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT AN AMPLIFYING
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL PROMOTE RAPID SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS TIME. THIS WILL
RESULT IN STRENGTHENING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS AND WILL HELP SEND TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S FOR AREAS
WEST OF I-35. A DRYLINE WILL APPROACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AND
WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON RH VALUES DROPPING TO LESS THAN 25%
ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS,
BREEZY CONDITIONS, AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AN
UPTICK IN FIRE STARTS ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES.
DUNN
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY. FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS
WHEN RH VALUES PLUMMET TO AROUND 15% FOR AREAS WEST OF I-35.
DESPITE LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS, THESE VERY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
SUPPORT GRASS FIRE ACTIVITY BOTH AFTERNOONS.
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD OUT
OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
SLIDES SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS UPPER TROUGH WHICH
WILL IMPACT POTENTIAL RAIN CHANCES HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND. IT
DOES APPEAR THAT STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL PULL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ATOP THE FRONTAL SURFACE AND AT LEAST RESULT IN
SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WE'LL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL OVER THE COMING DAYS.
DUNN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 513 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY
DENSE FOG WHICH HAS MAINLY STAYED ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS.
LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT LATER THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD HELP DISSIPATE ANY LINGERING FOG THROUGH MID MORNING. WE'LL
CARRY A TEMPO FOR 5SM BR AT THE MAJOR AIRPORTS FOR A FEW HOURS
THIS MORNING AS SOME OF THESE LOWER VIS REPORTS ARE ENCROACHING ON
THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE METROPLEX. OTHERWISE, VFR WILL PREVAIL
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 73 54 77 58 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 72 53 77 59 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 69 51 72 59 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 73 51 77 53 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 71 52 75 57 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 73 54 77 59 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 71 52 75 59 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 74 54 78 61 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 74 51 79 58 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 78 52 84 53 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page