492
FXUS64 KFWD 252321
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
621 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET WEATHER AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY THIS WEEK.
- A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK,
BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF RAIN BY
NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM LATE OCTOBER WEATHER WILL PERSIST
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY. A STOUT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE HAS FINALLY RETREATED EAST OF OUR REGION INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW BEGINS TO PIVOT
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS STATES, TOWARD THE UPPER
PLAINS. BORNE ON STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS,
AN EXPANSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD WILL STREAM OUT OF MEXICO ACROSS TEXAS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS THICK UPPER CLOUD DECK WILL HELP SHAVE A FEW
DEGREES OFF OF THIS AFTERNOON'S HIGHS, WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED. LOWS TONIGHT, CONVERSELY, WILL REMAIN
A TAD ABOVE THOSE WE'VE SEEN AREAWIDE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
WE'LL ENJOY JUST A BIT MORE SUN ON MONDAY, INTERSPERSED WITH
ADDITIONAL PATCHY HIGH CLOUDINESS. WITH FEW SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
THE OVERALL PATTERN, HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO
THOSE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON - UPPER 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES, WITH LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
A BAGGY UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, LEAVING NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS WITHIN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME, AND OPEN TO
MULTIPLE RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES. THE LATEST EURO AND GFS
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS DEPICT A SUBTLE WAVE RIPPLING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY. FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS INITIAL
SYSTEM, AND NBM POPS APPROPRIATELY REMAIN IN THE 10-30% RANGE FOR
OUR FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
MOST AREAS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL ACTUALLY REMAIN DRY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AS WEAK RIDGING TEMPORARILY HOLDS SWAY
OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER, A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FETCH OF MOISTURE, COMBINED WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A
KILLEEN TO CANTON LINE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT AND SPOTTY WITH THIS ACTIVITY, BUT A FEW LUCKY SPOTS MAY
GET WET. MOST LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE UNSEASONABLY MILD
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE PRIMARY PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THIS CURRENT FORECAST
WILL BEGIN THURSDAY, AS ANOTHER WAVE, EMBEDDED IN THE BROADER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION. LOW AND MID
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY, AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES, PER THE EURO ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS, WILL CLIMB INTO THE 150-225% RANGE BY SATURDAY. WHILE
THE EXACT TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ROUNDS IS NEBULOUS AT THIS
RANGE, WE'LL LIKELY SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OCCURRING AT INTERVALS, FIRST IN THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AND EXPANDING EASTWARD TO ENCOMPASS ALL OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AT THIS STAGE, POPS
FOR ANY GIVEN 12 HOUR PERIOD ARE GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF 40-60%
THROUGH SATURDAY, THOUGH THE OVERALL LIKELIHOOD OF EVERYONE
SEEING AT LEAST SOME RAIN IS HIGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY
AVERAGE A HALF INCH TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
EXTENDED RANGE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF TEXAS ON SUNDAY, WITH A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT MAJOR TROUGH IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
PRECIPITATION AT MULTIPLE POINTS THROUGH THE WEEK OF NOVEMBER 3RD
THROUGH THE 9TH. OUR STRONG EL NINO PATTERN IS STARTING TO
DELIVER THE GENEROUS FALL RAINFALL WE'VE BEEN MESSAGING FOR THE
PAST FEW MONTHS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
VFR WILL PERSIST AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW OF SPEEDS 5-10KTS WILL WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 5 KTS
TONIGHT, RESUMING SPEEDS OF 5-10KTS AFTER 15Z MONDAY.
A BROAD CIRRUS SHIELD CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN
SSW UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. WEAK SYNOPTIC ASCENT AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
PERTURBATION MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF MEXICO WILL RESULT IN A
CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS AROUND FL250 THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 60 81 62 82 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 56 81 60 81 / 0 0 0 10
PARIS 55 81 57 81 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 57 80 59 81 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 57 80 59 81 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 60 82 63 83 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 56 81 59 82 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 57 80 60 81 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 57 82 61 82 / 0 0 0 10
MINERAL WELLS 57 80 59 81 / 0 0 0 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BRADSHAW
LONG TERM....BRADSHAW
AVIATION...DORNSIFE
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