769
FXUS64 KFWD 061850
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1250 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON.
- ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY,
PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY IN PORTIONS OF EAST AND
CENTRAL TEXAS.
- A COLD FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY TAKING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO
MORE SEASONAL NORMS BY THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
ANOTHER QUIET BUT UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS TAKING SHAPE THIS
TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S. A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH NORTH TEXAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
PREVAILING THE REST OF THE DAY. WHILE THIS FRONT DIDN'T BRING
MUCH OF A COOL DOWN, A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS HAS ARRIVED WITH
DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN THE 20S AND 30S FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OUR CWA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL APPROACH 15-25
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL INCREASE THE INITIAL FIRE
ATTACK. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH OR
LESS LIMITING THE FIRE SPREAD AND AID IN CONTAINMENT. OTHERWISE,
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO OUR EAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE
WINDS LIGHT OVERNIGHT BEFORE THEY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH BY MID-LATE
MORNING. DESPITE THE LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT, THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF MID-HIGH
CLOUDS. THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE BRAZOS VALLEY AND NORTHEAST TEXAS BUT
WILL DEPEND ON THE LOCATION OF THE LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY.
FOR NOW, PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN INTRODUCED TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE RETURN OF SOUTH WINDS,
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ONCE AGAIN TO THE 70S AND LOW
80S WHICH IS 20-30 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY JANUARY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
AS ADVERTISED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, RAIN CHANCES WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS A DECENT
MID-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH DEPARTS NORTHERN MEXICO AND MOVES TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOW A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST COLORADO ALSO MOVING EASTWARD. WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TRANSPORTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND INCREASING
SYNOPTIC ASCENT, WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THESE WILL
SPREAD EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE
INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE LIMITED, 50-60 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAY SUPPORT A COUPLE OF ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY. WE CAN'T RULE OUT
SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS, BUT THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST THURSDAY MORNING,
BUT WITH THE MAIN SOURCE OF LIFT STAYING FAR TO OUR NORTH
(NORTHERN OK AND KS) SO WILL THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF RAIN AND
STORMS. FOR THE AFTERNOON, THERE'S ONLY A LOW CHANCE (20%) OF
RAIN FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES WITH THE REST OF US STAYING DRY AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY TO
10-20 MPH GUSTING TO 25 MPH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DESPITE THE RAIN
AND/OR CLOUD COVERAGE, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL APPROACH THE 70S TO
LOW 80S GIVEN THE BREEZY CONDITIONS.
THERE'S STILL SOME DECENT UNCERTAINTY ON THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE
SURFACE FRONT LINGERS NEAR OUR FAR SOUTH CENTRAL TX COUNTIES.
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE FRONT CLOSER TO OUR AREA WHILE SOME
OF THE MEDIUM-RES GUIDANCE LIKE THE NAM PUSHES IT TO OUR EAST AND
KEEPS MOST OF THE RAIN AND STORMS OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA. MODEL
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR NOT ONLY THE COVERAGE OF
RAIN BUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS.
AFTER THE FRIDAY SYSTEM, WE WILL FINALLY SEE A COOLER AIRMASS
TRAVEL SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND KEEPING OUR TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MANY LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT AND/OR
SUNDAY NIGHT. IT'S ALSO BECOMING MORE LIKELY THAT THESE COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY
APPROACH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT AT THIS TIME OUR RAIN
CHANCES ARE ONLY 10-15% WITH BETTER CHANCES SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND
ALONG THE TX COAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND WILL CONTINUE
ITS STEADY PROGRESSION OVER CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 11 KTS OR LESS
THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE THEY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SWITCH TO THE SOUTH BY 14-15Z WEDNESDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH HIGH CLOUDS.
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LOW CEILINGS/VSBY TOMORROW MORNING WILL
AGAIN REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND THE BRAZOS VALLEY REGION.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 48 77 62 77 / 0 0 30 20
WACO 47 79 64 77 / 0 0 10 10
PARIS 43 71 57 74 / 0 0 20 40
DENTON 42 75 58 76 / 0 0 40 20
MCKINNEY 43 75 61 75 / 0 0 30 20
DALLAS 48 78 63 77 / 0 0 30 20
TERRELL 44 77 62 76 / 0 0 20 20
CORSICANA 49 80 65 79 / 0 0 10 10
TEMPLE 49 80 62 78 / 0 0 10 10
MINERAL WELLS 43 80 57 77 / 0 0 40 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SANCHEZ
LONG TERM....SANCHEZ
AVIATION...SANCHEZ
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