820  
FXUS64 KFWD 180148  
AFDFWD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX  
848 PM CDT SAT AUG 17 2019  
 
   
UPDATE
 
 
UPSTREAM CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS CONTINUES TO WANE WITH  
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE  
NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR ABILENE WAS  
PURELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WERE REACHED,  
AND IS DISSIPATING MUCH MORE QUICKLY THAN CONVECTION IN SOUTHWEST  
OKLAHOMA WHICH WAS AIDED BY ASCENT FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE. THE  
LATTER DYNAMICALLY-AIDED CONVECTION WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO  
WEAKEN THIS EVENING. SOME SILENT 10% POPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR  
NORTHWESTERN AND RED RIVER COUNTIES TO HANDLE THE SMALL CHANCE  
THAT LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SURVIVES INTO THE CWA PRIOR TO  
ITS DEMISE.  
 
OTHERWISE, HAVE NUDGED SKY COVER UPWARDS ACROSS THE PREVIOUSLY  
DISCUSSED AREAS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF ANVIL CIRRUS WHICH MAY  
LINGER OVERNIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH  
LOW TEMPERATURES ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 70S OR  
AROUND 80 OVERNIGHT.  
 
-STALLEY  
 

 
 
   
AVIATION
 
/ISSUED 630 PM CDT SAT AUG 17 2019/  
/00Z TAFS/  
 
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT THE DFW  
METROPLEX, WITH ONLY A SLIM CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT WACO ON  
SUNDAY MORNING. WACO'S SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR WILL CONTINUE TO BE  
HANDLED WITH A SCT GROUP FOR THE TIME BEING, BUT CIGS MAY NEED TO  
BE TEMPO'D DEPENDING ON OVERNIGHT TRENDS. MEANWHILE, CONVECTION  
IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS, BUT THIS ACTIVITY  
WILL SUBSIDE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ITS ONLY CONTRIBUTION AT THE  
TAF SITES MAY BE A SMALL INCREASE IN REMNANT ANVIL CIRRUS LATER  
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE  
THROUGH TOMORROW WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA,  
BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE DISPLACED FAR FROM THE TAF SITES.  
 
-STALLEY  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 326 PM CDT SAT AUG 17 2019/  
 
NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR OUR REGION OVER THE  
NEXT 7 DAYS AS WE'LL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STOUT MID  
LEVEL RIDGE. AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND  
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL ENCOURAGE A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW  
THROUGH NORTH TEXAS AND WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE,  
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING, WE'LL BE WATCHING A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. A FEW  
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP  
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE EARLY  
EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN EXPANDING CUMULUS FIELD  
ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS, BUT ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD  
REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA. THERE ARE ALSO SOME SCATTERED  
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHICH HAVE BEEN SPREADING NORTHWARD  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN EAST OF  
THE REGION.  
 
GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE ACROSS THE EAST AND FAIRLY  
STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WE'LL  
LIKELY SEE A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF MORNING CLOUD COVER ON  
SUNDAY, PARTICULARLY EAST OF I-35. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY SHOULD  
FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND CONTINUED HOT CONDITIONS. WE'LL  
CONTINUE WITH THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH THIS MAY  
NEED TO BE EXPANDED INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS RELATIVELY BENIGN WITH THE  
UPPER RIDGE STILL IN PLACE, ALTHOUGH IT WILL UNDERGO SOME  
WEAKENING AND A GRADUAL SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH MID WEEK. AS IT  
DOES, A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON  
LATE WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD ENCOUNTER A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE AS  
IT SPREADS INTO NORTH TEXAS. WE'LL CONTINUE WITH SOME LOW POPS FOR  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. OTHER  
THAN THAT LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION, THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK  
LOOKS DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100  
DEGREES. MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO  
FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE, BUT THERE'S REALLY NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR A  
GOOD MOISTURE INTRUSION INTO NORTH TEXAS OR ANY SYNOPTIC FEATURES  
THAT WOULD SUPPORT HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. MOST OF THE RAINFALL LOOKS  
LIKE IT WILL BE FARTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES  
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  
 
DUNN  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 81 101 81 101 81 / 0 0 0 0 0  
WACO 80 100 79 101 78 / 0 0 0 0 0  
PARIS 77 96 77 97 77 / 5 0 5 0 5  
DENTON 80 101 79 101 79 / 5 0 0 0 0  
MCKINNEY 80 99 79 100 79 / 5 0 0 0 0  
DALLAS 81 101 81 101 81 / 0 0 0 0 0  
TERRELL 79 98 79 102 79 / 0 0 0 0 0  
CORSICANA 79 99 77 98 77 / 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMPLE 78 100 77 99 76 / 0 0 0 0 0  
MINERAL WELLS 78 102 77 101 76 / 0 0 0 0 5  
 

 
   
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-  
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.  
 

 
 

 
 
26/24  
 
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