441
FXUS64 KFWD 222348
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
648 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW STORM CHANCES RETURN LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH A DRYLINE AND A WEAK FRONT. SOME SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
THE SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE INCLEMENT WEATHER OVER
THE LAST 36 HOURS CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. A FEW LINGERING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS
PERSIST ACROSS EAST TEXAS, BUT THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THE
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO SHIFT EAST BY THIS EVENING. GIVEN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE, A FEW AFTERNOON DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP MAINLY EAST OF I-35 AND SOUTH
OF I-20 WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS THINNED OUT ENOUGH TO PARTLY CLOUDY
LEVELS. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR THE
BRAZOS VALLEY, SUPPORTING AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS.
THE EXPECTATION IS FOR ALL PRECIPITATION TO END OVERNIGHT AS
ANOTHER SWATH OF LOW CLOUDS SHIFTS INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
TONIGHT'S LOW CLOUDS AND STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL AID IN
MAINTAINING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION.
THE WARMING TREND WILL NOT ONLY OCCUR OVERNIGHT--IT CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS THE
BOARD. AS THE MORNING CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO BREAK UP, GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP.
CONCERNING THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TOMORROW, LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HINT AT A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS GENERALLY
WEST OF I-35 AND NORTH OF I-20. THIS AREA IS JUST AHEAD OF A
DRYLINE THAT WILL DEVELOP WITH A RAPID POOLING OF MOISTURE JUST
EAST OF THE DRYLINE. TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WILL LEAD TO
INSTABILITY VALUES BETWEEN 2000-2500 J/KG WITH ABOUT 45-50 KNOTS
OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL THE THE LAYER OF WARM
AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE THAT IS MORE THAN LIKELY GOING TO PREVENT
THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING. HOWEVER, THERE IS A 10% CHANCE THAT
A STORM OR TWO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE AND MOVE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST, TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR. IF A STORM IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP, THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTLY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING
WINDS AND TORNADOES WOULD INCREASE. AGAIN, THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS TOMORROW IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL AND WILL HINGE ON WHETHER A
STORM DEVELOPS OR NOT. ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL LIKELY
MOVE EAST FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
OUR ACTIVE WEATHER WILL PERSIST GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE
DRYLINE CONTINUES TO GENERATE LOCALIZED FORCING FOR ASCENT. LOW-
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN FULL STRENGTH ON FRIDAY, WITH A
FEW WARM-AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST
TEXAS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER
WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY STRENGTHENS TO AROUND
2500 J/KG EAST OF THE DRYLINE. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO SET UP
NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY THE AFTERNOON WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS TO
ITS EAST. ALTHOUGH THE INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ARE THERE,
THERE MAY BE A FEW LIMITING FACTORS THAT WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ISOLATED, AT BEST. THE PRIMARY INHIBITOR FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE PRESENCE OF ELEVATED CAPPING
INVERSION. THIS LAYER WILL KEEP VERTICAL MOTION LIMITED. THE OTHER
FACTOR WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER NORTH TEXAS. THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY OCCUR AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
EAST, WHICH PLACES OUR REGION IN A SLIGHTLY SUBSIDENT REGION. FOR
THAT REASON, WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS UNLIKELY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY'S SYNOPTIC SETUP LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE SYNCHRONIZED TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVES ATOP OUR REGION AS INSTABILITY REACHES ITS PEAK. THE
DRYLINE WILL SET UP ALONG OUR WESTERNMOST COUNTIES WITH
INSTABILITY REACHING 3000-3500 J/KG EACH AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES
AROUND 8 C/KM ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR BETWEEN 40-50 KNOTS WILL
PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY'S SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY SPAN ACROSS ALL OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS THE DISTURBANCE IT'S ASSOCIATED FORCING
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE REGION. SUNDAY'S THREAT WILL BE THE
GREATEST ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 AS THE MAIN FORCING REMAINS NORTH
OF OUR REGION.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH NORTH TEXAS ON MONDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. JUST HOW FAR THE COLD FRONT WILL
MAKE IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME GIVEN A COMPETING
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE
WESTERN CONUS. ALTHOUGH IT'S TOO EARLY TO BEGIN TALKING ABOUT NEXT
WEEK'S STORM POTENTIAL WITH ANY CERTAINTY, OUR SPRING-TIME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
NON-UNIFORM RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL FROM EITHER ISOLATED STORMS OR COMPACT
STORM COMPLEXES. A SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORM MAY PRODUCE A QUICK
INCH OR TWO OF RAIN, HOWEVER, LOCATION AND TIMING CERTAINTY IS
LOW.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
RIDGING ALOFT IS DEVELOPING OVERHEAD IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHICH SHOULD SHUT OFF ALL CONVECTION THIS
EVENING. AT THE SURFACE, LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM MOVING EAST THROUGH
THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL USHER IN ANOTHER DECK OF LOW CLOUDS
TONIGHT, FOLLOWING A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MVFR SHOULD ARRIVE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT LOCAL,
FOLLOWED BY IFR CIGS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. STRONGER WINDS SHOULD
MITIGATE FOG FORMATION, BUT SOME MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS MAY
STILL OCCUR AS TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS APPROACH ZERO. IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR SHOULD OCCUR AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY, WITH VFR EXPECTED
AROUND 21Z. OTHERWISE, WINDS OF 10-15 KT TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO
15-25 KT ON THURSDAY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 66 82 69 88 / 0 10 10 10
WACO 66 81 68 87 / 0 0 10 10
PARIS 63 79 67 83 / 10 10 20 30
DENTON 63 81 67 87 / 10 10 10 10
MCKINNEY 65 81 68 86 / 10 10 10 20
DALLAS 66 82 69 89 / 0 10 10 10
TERRELL 64 82 68 86 / 10 10 10 20
CORSICANA 66 84 70 87 / 0 0 10 20
TEMPLE 66 83 68 87 / 10 0 10 10
MINERAL WELLS 64 84 67 89 / 0 10 10 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ
AVIATION...30
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