487
FXUS64 KFWD 231919
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
219 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
REMAINS LOW OVERALL, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING
THE MAIN RECURRING HAZARDS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
AFTER A ROUND OF OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING CONVECTION, THINGS
HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY QUIET OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS
ACTIVITY IS DIMINISHING QUICKLY THOUGH AND MOST AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY INTO THE EVENING. SOME RECOVERY BEHIND THE SUBSIDENT
WAKE IS OCCURRING ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AS
EVIDENCED BY MORE PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND A SMALL
CUMULUS FIELD TO THE EAST. THIS WILL BE THE FAVORED AREA FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHERE WE'LL HAVE SOME LOW POPS, BUT AN ORGANIZED AREA OF
CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHING AND AMPLE LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WE'LL ALSO BE
WATCHING SOME CONVECTION OUT OF WEST TEXAS OVERNIGHT THAT MAY MAKE
A RUN AT OUR WESTERN COUNTIES, BUT WE'RE NOT EXPECTING A REPEAT
OF LAST NIGHT. POPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND 20% THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT A BIT EASTWARD DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY WHICH WOULD DISPLACE THE BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT TO OUR EAST. DESPITE THIS, A BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHTS
ALOFT ALONG WITH GENERALLY WEAK LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 ON
SUNDAY. WE'LL KEEP POPS AROUND 20% THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
DUNN
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR EAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER NORTH TEXAS, WE'LL SEE AN OVERALL DECREASE
IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THE CONTINUED
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS BEST. WE CAN'T RULE OUT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY EAST OF I-35. OTHERWISE, THE NEXT
UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD INTO TEXAS ON TUESDAY. WE SHOULD
SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS TUESDAY EVENING AND
SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT WITH A PRETTY GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WE'LL
HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THIS TIME WITH 60-80% COVERAGE AND
SOME LOW POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE STORM ALONG WITH A CONTINUED HEAVY
RAIN THREAT. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY AND RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN.
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THOUGH AND ADDITIONAL STORM
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
DUNN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 146 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
VFR PREVAILS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UNDER A CANOPY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
MOST OF THE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT
WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE D10 AIRSPACE SO WE'LL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY AT THIS TIME. LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT RAINFALL MAY PROMOTE SOME
PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING SO WE'LL HAVE A TEMPO FOR 5SM BR EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING, BUT OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS AT THE
MOMENT. WIND DIRECTION WILL REMAIN PRETTY VARIABLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A GENERAL EAST/SOUTHEAST DIRECTION PREFERRED LATER
TODAY AND SUNDAY.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 146 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 68 84 68 84 / 30 10 10 20
WACO 68 82 67 83 / 30 20 10 20
PARIS 65 80 65 79 / 20 20 20 50
DENTON 66 82 66 83 / 30 10 10 10
MCKINNEY 66 82 66 82 / 20 10 10 30
DALLAS 69 84 69 85 / 30 10 10 20
TERRELL 67 82 66 82 / 20 20 10 40
CORSICANA 69 83 68 84 / 30 20 10 40
TEMPLE 68 83 67 84 / 30 20 10 20
MINERAL WELLS 64 83 64 84 / 30 10 10 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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