503
FXUS64 KFWD 120538
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1138 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES IN CENTRAL TEXAS.
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK
WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH A STEADY STREAM OF EASTERN PACIFIC MOISTURE
CONTINUING TO SPREAD HIGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE STATE OF TEXAS.
THESE CLOUDS ARE INTERMITTENTLY THICK ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SO WE'LL
KEEP A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY GIVEN
THE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED JUST EAST OF OUR AREA AND
WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ALTHOUGH SEVERAL
LOCATIONS ARE CALM AT THIS HOUR. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RESUME
ON MONDAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB A FEW DEGREES INTO THE
LOW/MID 60S. AS THE UPPER TROUGH OUT WEST MOVES IN OUR GENERAL
DIRECTION, STRONG MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD TEXAS
WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT EXPECTED FROM
THE BIG BEND REGION INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SOME RADAR RETURNS ACROSS THE REGION, BUT A LACK OF MORE
APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MEANS THAT MOST OF THIS WILL BE
VIRGA. WE'LL HAVE A LOW CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
RAIN FREE. A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH
FINALLY EJECTS EASTWARD INTO A BROADER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS.
DUNN
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
WITH A LARGE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AMPLIFYING MIDWEEK, WE'LL SEE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR MUCH OF THE WINTER SO FAR, A LACK OF
DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MEAN THIS FRONT WILL COME THROUGH
DRY. BREEZY NORTH WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH RH VALUES DROPPING BELOW 30%. DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES,
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A LOW THREAT FOR FIRE STARTS IN THE DRY
CONDITIONS MAINLY WEST OF I-35 DURING THIS TIME. THE UPPER PATTERN
WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY. SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE, LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DUNN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY
10 KT OR LESS. THICK HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 38 64 41 67 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 35 61 41 61 / 0 0 0 10
PARIS 31 60 37 65 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 31 64 35 68 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 33 62 38 67 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 38 64 43 66 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 33 61 38 66 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 37 63 41 67 / 0 0 0 10
TEMPLE 35 63 40 63 / 0 10 0 10
MINERAL WELLS 32 66 35 68 / 0 0 0 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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