869
FXUS64 KFWD 031755
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1255 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE BRAZOS VALLEY AND
ADJACENT AREAS THROUGH 7 PM THURSDAY.
- LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-20 AND EAST
OF I-35 THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
BIG COUNTRY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD, IN THE FORM OF A NARROW
CONVERGENCE AXIS AND BLOB OF RICH MOISTURE, WILL DRIFT SLOWLY
WESTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE GENERALLY EAST
OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-20, WITH A PREFERENCE FOR THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THIS ENVELOPE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. FROM THIS LATE EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SHORT-TERM CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS
ARE ADVERTISING A BLOSSOMING OF NEW ACTIVITY FARTHER WEST, GENERALLY
ALONG A KILLEEN TO CLIFTON TO CLEBURNE LINE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
WHILE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT,
IT'S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR. THIS
IS AN AREA THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED LATE TONIGHT. THE GREAT
MAJORITY OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE DFW AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT, THOUGH SOME CHANCE POPS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR THE
METROPLEX.
BASED ON ACCUMULATED RAINFALL SO FAR, PLUS EXPECTED HIGH RAINFALL
RATES THIS AFTERNOON, WE'VE EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES, AND WE'VE EXPANDED THE WATCH WESTWARD ALONG A
LINE FROM CANTON, THROUGH CORSICANA AND MEXIA, INTO FRANKLIN. IT'S
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS ACTIVITY MAY OVERPERFORM, RAINFALL
WISE, GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PRESENT IN THE AREA.
SHOULD THIS OCCUR, THE WATCH WOULD NEED TO BE EXPANDED CLOSER TO I-
35 SOUTH OF DFW, AND EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING HOURS. FOR NOW, WE'LL
STICK WITH THE 7 PM EXPIRATION, PENDING LATER DEVELOPMENT.
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS, IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LINGERING
LOWER TO MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS AND MOISTURE BLOB LEFT OVER FROM
EDOUARD. OVERALL COVERAGE AND RAIN RATES SHOULD BE DIMINISHED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA FRIDAY VS. TODAY.
NEVERTHELESS, A FEW SPOTS IN CENTRAL TEXAS, MAINLY WEST OF I-35, MAY
YET RECEIVE ADDITIONAL BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY MODULATED BY THE ONGOING CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION FROM THE REMNANT TROPICAL SYSTEM. OVER OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES, HOWEVER, ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON
READINGS IN MANY LOCALES TO BREAK THE CENTURY MARK ONCE AGAIN. ON
FRIDAY, A DECREASE IN CLOUDCOVER AND PRECIPITATION, AND AN
ENHANCEMENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW READINGS IN MANY AREAS TO
PUSH BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES, WHERE SOME RESIDUAL CLOUDCOVER AND WET
SOILS WILL INHIBIT HIGHS FROM CLMBING BEYOND THE LOWER 90S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL STEADILY REVERT
TO CONDITIONS THAT RESEMBLE THOSE ENDURED DURING AUGUST. WHILE A
SUBTLE WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY, THIS WILL BE SUPPLANTED BY A REINTENSIFYING
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. ACCORDINGLY,
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK THROUGH THE 90S FROM
SATURDAY ONWARD, WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING A RETURN TO 100
DEGREE PLUS HEAT BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
UNFORTUNATELY, HEAT INDICES WILL RISE IN PARALLEL, REACHING
VALUES THAT MAY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF ADDITIONAL HEAT
ADVISORIES. THE ONLY RELIEF WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WHICH WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS EACH
AFTERNOON NEXT WEEK. THE COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS FROM THIS ACTIVITY
WILL NOT BE IMPRESSIVE, UNFORTUNATELY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
WEEK, WITH DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSISTING IN MANY AREAS OF WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS AND THE RED RIVER REGION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
WITH THE REMNANTS OF EDOUARDO WANDERING OVER THE REGION FOR THE
NEXT 24+ HOURS, THIS CREATES A LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY IN IMPACT
TRENDS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING HAVE NOW ALL
IMPROVED TO 3000 FEET OR ABOVE. VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD, BUT OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE IF HEAVIER RAIN OCCURS OVER AN AIRPORT.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AT KACT VS
THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS. FOR THE METROPLEX, WILL CARRY A VCTS FROM 20-
00Z. AT KACT, ALSO INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP FROM 20-00Z. USUALLY WITH
THESE REMNANT TROPICAL SYSTEMS, CONVECTION REDEVELOPS OVERNIGHT AND
HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH AFTER 05Z AT ALL THE AIRPORTS FOR THIS
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, IT'S POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDER OCCURS AS WELL
OVERNIGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 75 95 76 98 / 30 20 0 0
WACO 73 95 73 96 / 50 40 0 10
PARIS 73 97 73 98 / 0 10 0 0
DENTON 73 97 73 99 / 20 10 0 0
MCKINNEY 72 95 72 97 / 20 10 0 0
DALLAS 76 96 76 98 / 30 10 0 0
TERRELL 72 95 72 97 / 20 10 0 10
CORSICANA 73 92 73 93 / 40 20 0 10
TEMPLE 73 95 72 96 / 40 40 0 10
MINERAL WELLS 71 99 70 99 / 20 20 0 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ122-135-146>148-
161-162-175.
SHORT TERM...BRADSHAW
LONG TERM....BRADSHAW
AVIATION...JLDUNN
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