615
FXUS64 KFWD 062321
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
621 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL TX
TONIGHT.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
- DRIER AND HOTTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH HEAT INDEX UP TO 107 POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
UPDATE:
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS WINDING DOWN ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS THIS EVENING BUT SOME LINGERING CORES OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE ALONG OUR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES.
RAINFALL RATES WITH THIS ACTIVITY HAVE COME DOWN BUT POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW DOWNPOURS TO PRODUCE 1 INCH OF RAINFALL QUICKLY WILL PERSIST
FOR A LITTLE LONGER. WE'VE CANCELLED A MAJORITY OF THE FLOOD WATCH
FOR OUR AREA, BUT WILL ALLOW IT TO RUN THROUGH 10 PM FOR A HANDFUL
OF OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE SOME RAIN CONTINUES. WE'LL RE-
EVALUATE THE OVERNIGHT RAINFALL POTENTIAL AT THAT TIME. AS OF NOW,
IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH AN
UPTICK IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED AGAIN ON MONDAY.
DUNN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN IN THIS ACTIVE WEATHER THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING AREAS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF I-35. LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE KEEP THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AREAS UNDER THE FLOOD WATCH. WHILE SOILS ARE LESS SATURATED IN
THE AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH, THERE'S STILL A NON-ZERO FLOOD
THREAT GIVEN THESE SLOW MOVING SHOWERS/STORMS. ADDITIONAL 1-3
INCHES ARE LIKELY IN A FEW SPOTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
WEAK DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SOUTH THIS EVENING SHIFTING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. BUT THE OVERALL THINKING IS THAT MOST OF
THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING LEAVING US MOSTLY DRY
OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW. UNLIKE
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, MOST OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE KEEPS THE
COVERAGE OF THE PRECIPITATION FAIRLY SCATTERED. GIVEN HOW MOIST
THE AIRMASS WILL STILL BE, ANY WEAK SOURCE OF LIFT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LOWER THAN TODAY'S, WE CAN'T RULE
OUT A FEW INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
CENTRAL TX DUE TO THE VERY SATURATED SOILS. OTHERWISE, MONDAY'S
HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVERAGE AND
WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED.
SANCHEZ
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 134 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025/
/TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND/
UNFORTUNATELY, THE RAIN IS NOT OVER FOR US YET AS WE WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS OUR AREA UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THE NORTH/NORTHWEST
PATTERN ALOFT WILL KEEP SENDING SHORTWAVES SOUTHWARD RESULTING IN
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE
WILL REMAIN AROUND 20-40% AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES FROM OKLAHOMA AND
SHIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR
BELOW NORMAL WHERE RAIN OR CLOUD COVERAGE IS MORE PERSISTENT.
OTHERWISE, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S.
EXTENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST
FINALLY MAKING THE PUSH EASTWARD DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD WITH
DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER FOR US. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY MID-WEEK WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 98-107
RANGE.
SANCHEZ
AVIATION
/NEW/
/00Z TAFS/
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING WITH VFR CEILINGS PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AROUND 10 KT WITH
RAIN CHANCES REMAINING FAIRLY LOW. THERE IS SOME LOW POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CIGS EARLY MONDAY MORNING MAINLY IN CENTRAL TX WHERE WE'LL
HAVE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR AT WACO, BUT OTHERWISE MOST AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. WE'LL LIKELY SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS REDEVELOP
DURING THE DAY MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION AND WE'LL CARRY A VCSH
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 76 91 76 91 75 / 10 20 5 30 20
WACO 73 89 74 89 73 / 20 20 0 10 10
PARIS 73 92 73 90 73 / 5 20 5 40 20
DENTON 73 91 74 92 73 / 10 30 5 30 20
MCKINNEY 74 91 75 91 74 / 10 20 5 30 20
DALLAS 76 91 76 93 76 / 10 20 5 30 20
TERRELL 73 91 74 91 74 / 5 20 5 30 20
CORSICANA 74 91 75 92 74 / 5 20 5 20 10
TEMPLE 72 89 73 90 72 / 20 20 0 10 10
MINERAL WELLS 72 89 73 91 73 / 10 40 5 30 20
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ142-156>158.
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