722
FXUS64 KFWD 021841
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
141 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE BRAZOS VALLEY
THROUGH 1 PM THURSDAY.
- LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-20 AND EAST
OF I-35 WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
BIG COUNTRY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EDOUARD, LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF PALESTINE, IS
CURRENTLY BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
TO PARTS OF THE BRAZOS VALLEY AND EAST TX. TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS
BOOSTED RAINFALL RATES, AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TX OUTSIDE OUR
AREA HAVE RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT (WELL OVER 10") RAINFALL FROM THIS
SYSTEM. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANDERSON, FREESTONE, HENDERSON, AND LEON COUNTIES, WHERE TOTAL
PRECIP THROUGH TOMORROW IS LIKELY TO REACH 3-6 INCHES AND UP TO 8"
IN LOCALIZED AREAS. WE EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO BEGIN LATE
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING THURSDAY. BE SURE TO
USE EXTRA CAUTION AT LOWER WATER CROSSINGS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
IF YOU SEE A FLOODED ROAD, TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN!
BESIDES THIS SMALL AREA ALONG AND EAST OF I-45, LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL
TX WILL LIKELY NOT BE DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY EDOUARD. INSTEAD,
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL HAVE A 10-30% CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY IN CENTRAL TX, WHERE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INSTABILITY ARE HIGHEST. GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS. HIGH TEMPS TODAY
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 EXCEPT FOR OUR FLOOD WATCH
COUNTIES, WHERE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER FROM EDOUARD WILL KEEP
TEMPS IN THE 80S.
ON THURSDAY, A LOW-LEVEL WIND RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS IN
COLORADO WILL DISPLACE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE NORTH OF THE
DECAYING MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX ASSOCIATED WITH EDOUARD'S REMNANTS
IN EASTERN CENTRAL TX. AS A RESULT, 10-30% RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY
WILL EXPAND TO COVER MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TX. HIGH TEMPS ON
THURSDAY RANGE FROM 90 TO JUST OVER 100 IN A GENERAL E TO W GRADIENT
BASED ON EXPECTED RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD GIVEN LOW RH VALUES (25-35%) AND HOT
WEATHER NEAR 100 EACH AFTERNOON AS WELL AS THE BREEZY (10-15 MPH
GUSTING TO 20 MPH) WINDS ON THURSDAY IN THIS AREA.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAD MOVED OVER SOUTHERN APPALACHIA WILL BEGIN
TO SLIDE WESTWARD BACK TOWARD THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY, PUSHING REMNANT
VORTICITY FROM EDOUARD SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY SATURDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME, MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW RAIN
CHANCES FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20.
ONCE OVERHEAD, THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
(MID-90S IN CENTRAL TX AND NEAR 100 IN NORTH TX) THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MOST WILL REMAIN DRY AFTER FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR THE BRAZOS
VALLEY, WHERE MOISTURE FROM ANOTHER WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO LOW CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE A LOW (10-20%) CHANCE OF DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BETWEEN 20-00Z, BUT
EXPECTED COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN D10 TAFS AT THIS TIME.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT SHRA WILL NEAR WACO DURING THE SAME
WINDOW, HOWEVER, GIVEN ITS PROXIMITY TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION EDOUARD.
WACO WILL ALSO HAVE A CHANCE (~20%) FOR SHOWERS TOMORROW MORNING AS
THE REMNANTS OF EDOUARD MEANDER WEST, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH FOR A PROB30 AT THIS TIME.
TOMORROW MORNING AROUND 06-08Z, AN MVFR CLOUD DECK WILL OVERSPREAD
THE D10 FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO OUTRUN
THE REMNANTS OF EDOUARD. WESTERN D10 SITES SHOULD SEE A SLIGHTLY
LATER ONSET AND AN EARLIER END TO MVFR CONDITIONS. MEANWHILE, IFR
CEILINGS ARE A LOW (10-20%) POSSIBILITY FOR DFW AND DAL BUT NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 78 94 77 96 / 10 30 30 10
WACO 78 94 75 96 / 20 30 30 20
PARIS 75 95 74 97 / 20 20 10 10
DENTON 79 96 74 97 / 10 20 30 10
MCKINNEY 76 93 74 94 / 10 30 20 20
DALLAS 78 93 78 97 / 10 30 30 20
TERRELL 76 94 74 95 / 50 50 20 20
CORSICANA 75 90 74 94 / 60 40 30 30
TEMPLE 78 95 74 97 / 10 30 30 30
MINERAL WELLS 75 99 73 99 / 0 20 30 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR TXZ135-147-148-162.
SHORT TERM...FENSKE
LONG TERM....FENSKE
AVIATION...FENSKE
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