793
FXUS64 KFWD 031859
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1259 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG ARE INCREASINGLY LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
US-84 CORRIDOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
- WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS (30-40% CHANCE) ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO THURSDAY. A NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
NORTH WINDS OF 5-15 MPH AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN
DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH AS THE LAST REMNANTS OF MORNING CLOUD
COVER CLEAR OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
EXPECT THE AFTERNOON TO BE SUNNY AND DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
TONIGHT, CLEAR SKIES, DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES COOL SOME 20-30 DEGREES, WITH MOST SEEING LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO THE LOW 40S.
TOMORROW, WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF THE GREAT PLAINS.
HIGHS TOMORROW WILL AGAIN LARGELY BE IN THE 60S, WITH A FEW LOW
70S POSSIBLE WEST OF US-281.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
CONVERGENCE ALOFT AND SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE ATOP A MOISTENING
NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER VIA THE NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF GULF
MOISTURE WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ANY
FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN
MIXING AFTER SUNRISE.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
PLAINS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THIS UPCOMING WORK WEEK. SYNOPTIC
SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND PERSISTENT WAA AT THE SURFACE WILL HELP
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 70S, AND POTENTIALLY EVEN
THE LOW 80S. HOWEVER, TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES MAY PUT A WRENCH IN ANY POTENTIAL RECORD HIGHS BEING SET
DUE TO THE ADVECTION OF MID AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE REGION
FROM UPSTREAM. REGARDLESS OF IF RECORDS ARE SET OR NOT, WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
TROUGHING OVER THE ROCKIES GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS AS A 500 HPA VORT MAX EJECTS INTO TEXAS FROM OFF THE
MEXICAN PLATEAU. FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE IN
CONJUNCTION WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE (DEW POINTS INTO THE
60S) WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND WIDELY SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS (40% CHANCE) WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THOUGH A
COUPLE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE, MARGINAL INSTABILITY APPEARS
TO PRECLUDE MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS OR THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN
THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM.
BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT,
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FALL TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING DOMINATES THE CENTRAL CONUS. CURRENTLY,
HIGHS IN THE 60S ON FRIDAY LOOK TO GIVE WAY TO HIGHS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 50S BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND NORTH FLOW AT 5-10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
12Z TOMORROW MORNING. SOMETIME BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z, WINDS WILL
VEER TO BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY AT AROUND 5 KNOTS. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE (10-20%) FOR PATCHY FOG IN THE BRAZOS VALLEY, BUT THIS
SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF TAF SITES.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 41 65 50 73 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 40 66 48 72 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 37 60 44 70 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 35 64 46 73 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 36 63 47 72 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 41 65 50 74 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 38 64 47 71 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 42 67 50 73 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 40 68 47 73 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 36 69 46 78 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DARRAH
LONG TERM....DARRAH
AVIATION...DARRAH
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