502
FXUS64 KFWD 030537
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1237 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER IS FORECAST THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
PLEASANT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO END THE WEEKEND AND
BEGIN THE WORKWEEK AS MODEST MID-LEVEL RIDGING OCCURS AND LOW-
LEVEL FLOW RETURNS TO SOUTHERLY. BREEZIER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY, AND RESULTANT WARM ADVECTION WILL SEND
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FOLLOWING A SEASONABLY
COOL SATURDAY. VEERING WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS HEADING
INTO MONDAY WILL AID TEMPERATURES IN CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER, WITH MOST OF THE AREA REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S.
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL ALSO MAKE A RETURN WHICH WILL BRING AN
END TO THE MORE PLEASANT LOW HUMIDITY EXPERIENCED DURING PRECEDING
DAYS. HOWEVER, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ABSENT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS WE AWAIT THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM SET TO
ARRIVE ON TUESDAY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE CWA FROM THE NORTH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WHILE PRECEDING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW CONTINUES TO SUPPLY A FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
THIS FRONT AS WELL AS A SURFACE DRYLINE WILL BE PULLED INTO NORTH
TEXAS BY LATE AFTERNOON, AND MAY SERVE AS AN IMPETUS FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE INITIATION NORTH OF I-20. HOWEVER, COVERAGE IS LIKELY
TO BE LIMITED BY RESIDUAL CAPPING WHICH WILL STRUGGLE TO ERODE IN
THE ABSENCE OF ANY MEANINGFUL UPPER-LEVEL FORCING. THE UPPER
DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL LAG BEHIND BY SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES, WITH EVEN MODEST MID-LEVEL RIDGING OCCURRING
OVERHEAD DURING THE DAYTIME. WHILE FRONTAL AND DRYLINE MECHANICAL
FORCING MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THESE OTHERWISE DETRIMENTAL
EFFECTS TO ACHIEVE ISOLATED INITIATION, CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND
STRENGTH COULD BE RATHER LIMITED WITHIN THE CWA LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
SOUTHWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH
LIKELY A FAST TRANSITION TO A LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE DUE TO
SHEAR/FLOW VECTORS BEING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE WEST-EAST
ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS MAY FURTHER LIMIT UPDRAFT
INTENSITY, ALTHOUGH AT LEAST MARGINALLY STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE
HAZARDS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY SIMPLY DUE TO SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
MAGNITUDES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. PEAK STORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN
NEAR AND EAST OF I-35 TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE ALL
ACTIVITY EXITS TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
LIKELY TO HOLD IN THE 70S. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A BREAK IN
RAIN CHANCES, BUT AN ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OR TWO WILL
RESULT IN RENEWED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO END THE
WORKWEEK AND BEGIN NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
THERE ARE NO AVIATION CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD, AND VFR WILL
PREVAIL WITH SOME PASSING CIRRUS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS LATE THIS MORNING WITH INFREQUENT DAYTIME
GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 75 56 82 61 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 74 54 80 58 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 73 53 80 56 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 75 53 82 58 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 75 54 82 59 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 77 59 83 61 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 75 53 81 57 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 76 54 80 59 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 75 53 78 57 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 75 52 81 56 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...STALLEY
LONG TERM....STALLEY
AVIATION...STALLEY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page