877
FXUS64 KFWD 301039
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
539 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH
NO CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY.
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
WARM AND RAIN-FREE WEATHER IS FORECAST TO BEGIN THE WORKWEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A ROBUST WARM ADVECTION
REGIME WILL RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOONS WHEN AIDED BY MOMENTUM TRANSFER FROM DAYTIME
MIXING. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A CONSTANT SUPPLY OF GULF
MOISTURE, WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AND DAILY MORNING STRATUS
INTRUSIONS. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, A WEST TEXAS DRYLINE WILL BEGIN
TO SHARPEN AHEAD OF A DEEPENING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. WHILE LARGE-
SCALE LIFT NEAR THE DRYLINE WILL BE MINIMAL, THERE ALSO ISN'T A
CLEAR SUBSIDENT SIGNAL, AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW STORMS COULD
DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
WHICH COULD ADVANCE EASTWARD TOWARD THE CWA. THESE CELLS WOULD
HAVE TO OVERCOME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, NEUTRAL SYNOPTIC ASCENT, AND
INCREASING INHIBITION BY THE TIME THEY WOULD ARRIVE IN NORTH
TEXAS, SO THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR ANY STORMS WITHIN THE CWA IS
RATHER SLIM FOR THESE REASONS. SOME LOW ~20% POPS WILL BE
ADVERTISED MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS LOW-PROBABILITY SCENARIO.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL DELIVER MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD,
THE MAIN CHANCES BEING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.
A PAIR OF STRONG STORM SYSTEMS WILL PIVOT THROUGH BROAD WESTERN
CONUS TROUGHING DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, BOTH OF WHICH
WILL RESULT IN CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
FIRST OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL AID IN IGNITING CONVECTION ALONG
A DRYLINE DRAPED THROUGH THE BIG COUNTRY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONSOLIDATE AND MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH MUCH
OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT, AIDED BY CONTINUED DYNAMIC
ASCENT FROM THE STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL VORT MAX.
INSTABILITY AVAILABILITY WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR THUNDERSTORM
STRENGTH AND LONGEVITY DUE TO A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND
HIGH LCLS IN THE WARM SECTOR. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF
ORGANIZATION, AT LEAST A LOW STRONG/SEVERE THREAT WOULD LIKELY
ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY EVENING, AND
WOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH EASTWARD SPATIOTEMPORAL EXTENT.
THURSDAY'S FORECAST IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN, AS IT WILL DEPEND ON
ANY LEFTOVER MESOSCALE INFLUENCES OF THE PRECEDING NIGHT'S
CONVECTION. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO LOOKS TO BE A RATHER TRANQUIL
DAYTIME PERIOD IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE PREVIOUS DAY'S THUNDERSTORMS. THAT SYSTEM'S TRAILING COLD
FRONT WILL AT LEAST ENCROACH ON THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY BEFORE
STALLING NEAR THE RED RIVER, POSSIBLY RESULTING IN ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE ATTEMPTS DUE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER,
THEY WOULD BE FIGHTING SOME LINGERING SUBSIDENCE DUE TO NEGATIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A WARM SECTOR RECOVERY DAY, AS THE MORE DYNAMIC
OF THE TWO STORM SYSTEMS BEGINS TO ENTER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
STRENGTHENING SOUTH FLOW WILL SEND A PLUME OF RICH MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA PRECEDING THE ARRIVAL OF THIS SYSTEM'S
COLD FRONT. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SHOULD THEN ACCOMPANY
THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY OR
EARLY SATURDAY, LIKELY CONTAINING AT LEAST A MARGINAL
STRONG/SEVERE THREAT ONCE AGAIN GIVEN THE WARM SECTOR PARAMETER
SPACE. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A FULL PASSAGE THROUGH THE
ENTIRE CWA, RESULTING IN COOLER AND POSSIBLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
BY EASTER SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THE RAIN-FREE ASPECT OF THAT SCENARIO
IS STILL UNCERTAIN AS OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION COULD BE A
POSSIBILITY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THIS TYPE OF REGIME. IT DOES AT
LEAST APPEAR THAT TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS FOLLOWING THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
MVFR CIGS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF OVERSPREADING ALL TAF SITES AS OF
11Z, AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 16-17Z BEFORE SCATTERING TO
VFR. THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING LATER THIS MORNING WILL
ALLOW SOUTH WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE TO 15G25KT, WITH A FEW GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 30KT BEING OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR
STRATUS ARRIVING ON TUESDAY MORNING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 86 63 85 67 / 0 0 0 10
WACO 88 63 86 66 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 84 61 82 64 / 0 0 0 10
DENTON 86 59 85 63 / 0 0 0 10
MCKINNEY 84 62 84 65 / 0 0 0 10
DALLAS 87 64 86 67 / 0 0 0 10
TERRELL 86 62 85 66 / 0 0 0 10
CORSICANA 87 64 88 67 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 88 63 88 66 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 87 59 85 62 / 0 0 0 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...STALLEY
LONG TERM....STALLEY
AVIATION...STALLEY
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