502
FXUS64 KFWD 292305
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
605 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
- A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
WEST OF THE US-281 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
..TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL REMAIN QUIET ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID-90S.
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE PRIMARY UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO THE
WEST, SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. AS A RESULT, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD TIGHTEN ACROSS
THE REGION RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH.
..WEDNESDAY
BY WEDNESDAY, THE PRIMARY UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FROM
THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE,
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE PROXIMITY OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. A PACIFIC FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW-
PRESSURE INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE IN PLACE (PWATS POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 2
INCHES), SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN PROXIMITY TO THIS FRONTAL ZONE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE US-281 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL BE OWING TO SUFFICIENT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (30-40 KNOTS) AND MODEST INSTABILITY (MLCAPE
1000-1500 J/KG). THERE WILL BE LOCALIZED AREAS WITH ENHANCED 0-1
KM SHEAR (ESPECIALLY IN PROXIMITY TO THE STRONGER STORMS) WITH
SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 15-25 KNOTS. HOWEVER, THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
PROFILE LACKS CURVATURE WITH 0-1KM SRH GENERALLY 100 M2/S2 OR
LESS. AS SUCH, THOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN THE
BIG COUNTRY, THIS THREAT LOOKS RATHER LOW AT THE MOMENT. AS SUCH,
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS IN ANY SEVERE STORM WILL BE FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
..WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS HILL
COUNTRY INTO OKLAHOMA. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY RESULTING IN AN INCREASING RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT. THIS FLOODING THREAT WILL
BE MAXIMIZED ALONG AND WEST OF THE US-281 CORRIDOR, THOUGH
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING CAN'T BE RULED OUT CLOSER TO
THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. BY THURSDAY THE
GREATEST FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL SHIFT MORE TOWARDS THE I-35
CORRIDOR AS TRAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST. BY THURSDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST RESULTING IN MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE (ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR), THE FLOODING THREAT SHOULD GENERALLY START TO
DECREASE BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE 1-3
INCHES FOR MOST. ISOLATED POCKETS OF 4-6 INCHES OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE I-35 AND US-281 CORRIDORS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO FINALLY DIP BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE RAIN
AND CLOUD COVER IN THE AREA. THURSDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S FOR
MOST WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN IN THE AREA.
LOCATIONS THAT SEE THE MOST PERSISTENT RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MAY REMAIN IN THE 70S THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS IN AND
AROUND THE BRAZOS VALLEY MAY ONCE AGAIN WARM INTO THE LOW-90S AS
RAIN WILL STRUGGLE TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THESE AREAS.
..FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THOUGH THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE WELL TO THE
NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES BY THIS WEEKEND,
WEAK TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES.
AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THIS BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH, AND WHAT ITS EVOLUTION WILL BE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
REGARDLESS, LOW-LEVEL FORCING IN PROXIMITY TO THIS BOUNDARY ALONG
WITH WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE DEPICTS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WEAK CAA
AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN ACROSS
THE REGION WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE THIS WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER-70S AND LOWER-80S.
..MONDAY ONWARD
BY MONDAY, MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS A MUCH MORE FALL-LIKE AIRMASS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
INCREASINGLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SEVERAL
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOL FALL AIR TO MUCH OF THE CONUS, OF WHICH
SHOULD MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S AND BRING MUCH DRIER (DEW
POINTS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S BY MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK). WHILE
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS THAN THIS WEEKEND,
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MUCH COLDER IN THE UPPER-50S AND LOWER-60S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
THE PERSISTENT 500MB RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL GRADUALLY ERODE FROM WEST
TO EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LOW
CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS STILL HAVE ABOUT ANOTHER 24 HOURS BEFORE THE LOCAL WEATHER
BECOMES UNSETTLED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS. UNTIL THEN, CONVECTION WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE
AREA OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
PRIMARY CONCERN IN THIS TAF CYCLE WILL BE THE NORTHWARD SURGE OF
GULF MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND RESULTING ROUND OF LOW CEILINGS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONSET OF MVFR SHOULD BE AROUND 09Z AT KACT AND
11-12Z IN THE DFW METROPLEX. A RETURN TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR BY
MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AS GUSTY SOUTH WINDS MIX TO THE SURFACE. RECENT
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY WARRANT VCTS OR VCSH FROM 21-01Z,
BUT THE ONSET OF MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 77 95 74 82 / 0 30 80 90
WACO 75 95 75 85 / 10 30 60 100
PARIS 73 94 74 87 / 0 10 30 90
DENTON 75 95 72 79 / 0 40 90 100
MCKINNEY 73 94 71 81 / 0 20 70 90
DALLAS 78 96 76 83 / 0 30 70 100
TERRELL 74 95 73 86 / 0 10 40 90
CORSICANA 73 95 74 87 / 0 20 30 90
TEMPLE 73 96 73 87 / 10 30 60 100
MINERAL WELLS 72 93 70 78 / 0 50 100 100
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
TXZ091>094-100>105-115>121-129>134-141>146-156>161-174.
SHORT TERM...DARRAH
LONG TERM....DARRAH
AVIATION...30
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