726
FXUS64 KFWD 022318
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
618 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, THOUGH COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY WILL GENERALLY DECREASE WITH TIME.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL END BY SUNDAY EVENING. DRY AND INCREASINGLY
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
A SLOW-MOVING FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUING
MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. COVERAGE HAS STEADILY
DECREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS DESPITE AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE, AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE.
MEANINGFUL BUOYANCY IS DISPLACED FROM MUCH OF THE RAIN SHIELD,
WITH THE COOL/POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LITTLE
USEFUL INSTABILITY. THEREFORE, SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
WHILE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS REMAIN QUITE WET FOLLOWING THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS OF RAINFALL, THE DECREASING COVERAGE AND LACK OF
APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY SHOULD SUBSTANTIALLY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH ITS SCHEDULED EXPIRATION AT 7 PM, BUT AN EXTENSION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD STILL OCCUR WHERE ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS REPEATEDLY AFFECT SATURATED AREAS, THOUGH THE
OVERALL FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.
A RELATIVE LULL IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING BEFORE SHOWER COVERAGE
INCREASES AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THIS INCREASE WILL BE DRIVEN LESS BY
INSTABILITY AND MORE BY CONTINUED ISENTROPIC ASCENT ABOVE THE
SHALLOW POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS AS THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
NEARBY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD BACK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST
COVERAGE SHOULD GENERALLY FAVOR CENTRAL TEXAS AND AREAS WEST OF
I-35, THOUGH THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION
AXIS REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.
THE WEAKENING TROUGH WILL FINALLY BEGIN PULLING AWAY ON SATURDAY
WHILE PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS MAY
REMAIN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY
MORNING, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD STEADILY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND
OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN,
WITH MOST LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
THE PROLONGED UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END THIS
WEEKEND AS THE LINGERING UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND DEPARTS. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD BE DRY SATURDAY NIGHT, THOUGH A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT ARRIVING SUNDAY MAY SQUEEZE OUT ONE FINAL ROUND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS, PRIMARILY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART. ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION WILL END
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL THEN PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER, WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID NIGHTS FOLLOWED BY
INCREASINGLY WARMER AFTERNOONS AS ABUNDANT SUNSHINE RETURNS.
THE PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINATED BY MID-LEVEL
RIDGING DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
STRONGER WESTERLIES RETREAT TO THE NORTH. SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY
COLUMN SHOULD MAINTAIN RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE
TEMPERATURES STEADILY WARM. HIGHS SHOULD RETURN TO THE 80S ACROSS
MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHILE
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATE WHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW
EVENTUALLY RETURNS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS GENERALLY PERSIST ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TX THIS EVENING WITH A CONCENTRATED AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF THE D10 AIRSPACE IMPACTING THE WACO
AREA. CIGS HAVE FLUCTUATED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON, BUT ARE
GENERALLY VFR WITH HEIGHTS AROUND 3500-5000 FT. THESE SHOULD LOWER
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND WE'LL GENERALLY PREVAIL MVFR CIGS
AFTER 3Z, ALTHOUGH SOME INTERMITTENT MVFR IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THEN.
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO MUCH OF
SATURDAY BEFORE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF A BIT SATURDAY EVENING.
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ON SATURDAY WITH CONDITIONS NOT REALLY EXPECTED TO IMPROVE UNTIL
BEYOND THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 69 76 68 82 / 60 60 30 10
WACO 69 79 68 82 / 50 60 50 30
PARIS 66 75 64 84 / 40 40 30 10
DENTON 66 74 65 83 / 60 60 20 10
MCKINNEY 65 75 64 82 / 60 50 20 10
DALLAS 69 77 69 83 / 60 60 30 10
TERRELL 67 78 65 83 / 50 50 30 20
CORSICANA 68 79 67 81 / 40 50 40 30
TEMPLE 68 79 67 82 / 50 50 50 40
MINERAL WELLS 62 73 63 82 / 70 70 30 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ103>107-117>123-
130>135-143>147-156>161-174-175.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...DUNN
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