581
FXUS64 KFWD 050649
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
149 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE
SOME SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST NEXT WEEK WITH LOW STORM
CHANCES SOUTH OF I-20 ON MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A DECAYING COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CLIPPING OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES AT THIS HOUR WITH A
WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH TOWARD THE I-20
CORRIDOR. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN AND STALL JUST
SOUTH OF I-20 BEFORE RETREATING NORTHWARD LATER TODAY AND SHOULD
BECOME THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGHING PATTERN IS SETTING UP ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TODAY CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH
STRONGER RIDGING BEING PUSHED BACK TO THE WEST. THIS WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGING ALONG WITH WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
OFFERS VARYING DEGREES OF COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF NEW CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON, THE SIGNAL IS PRESENT IN MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE LARGER SCALE GLOBAL MODELS. CONVECTION
SHOULD BE TIED FAIRLY CLOSELY TO THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND
IS MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP NEAR THE RED RIVER DURING PEAK HEATING
AND DRIFT SOUTHWARD WITH TIME WITH THE MEAN FLOW ALOFT. WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 DEGREES AND A DEEPLY MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER (T/TD SPREADS >35 DEGREES), THE STRONGEST STORMS
COULD PRODUCE A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS. GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
AND EXPECTED CROWDS ON AREA LAKES, IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT
THESE WINDS CAN SURGE OUT WELL AWAY FROM THE PARENT STORMS AND
CATCH BOATERS BY SURPRISE. WE'LL HAVE STORM CHANCES AROUND 40%
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS A NOTABLE INCREASE OVER PREVIOUS DAYS.
CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN A BIT AFTER LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
WITH OUTFLOW SPREADING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS FOR MONDAY.
DUNN
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MAIN FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY. WITH THE UPPER
TROUGHING SPREADING FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY, THE
BULK OF ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ON MONDAY SHOULD BE GENERALLY
SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR INTO CENTRAL TX. WITH UPPER RIDGING
TRYING TO NUDGE BACK INTO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME, COVERAGE ON
MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE LESS AND WE'LL HAVE RAIN/STORM
CHANCES AROUND 30%. SIMILAR TO TODAY, STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING
WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH
ANY DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL EXPAND TUESDAY THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK RESULTING IN CONTINUE HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT NEAR 100 DEGREES
EACH DAY WITH HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100-105 DEGREES. WEAK TROUGHING
WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE U.S. BY LATE IN THE
WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AND COULD BRING ADDITIONAL LOW STORM CHANCES
TO NORTH TEXAS.
DUNN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 148 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
AT THIS HOUR, SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE D10
AIRSPACE HAVE SENT A STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A TEMPORARY WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH WINDS
GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KT FOR AN HOUR OR SO. WINDS WILL RECOVER LATER
THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER. WE'LL CONTINUE
WITH THE VCTS AND TEMPO FOR TSRA THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH WE'VE
MODIFIED THE TIMING A BIT TO BE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. ANY STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND PRONOUNCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. CONVECTION
SHOULD WIND DOWN AFTER DARK WITH VFR PREVAILING OVERNIGHT.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 98 77 97 77 / 40 20 10 10
WACO 98 76 98 74 / 10 20 30 20
PARIS 94 73 92 73 / 50 10 10 10
DENTON 99 73 96 73 / 40 20 10 10
MCKINNEY 97 74 96 74 / 40 20 10 10
DALLAS 99 78 98 78 / 40 20 10 10
TERRELL 98 75 96 74 / 40 20 20 10
CORSICANA 99 76 98 74 / 20 20 20 20
TEMPLE 99 75 97 73 / 0 10 30 20
MINERAL WELLS 98 73 96 72 / 40 30 10 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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