105
FXUS64 KFWD 050540
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1240 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER WITH COOL NIGHTS AND WARM DAYS WILL BE SEEN THIS
WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BROUGHT US THE PROLONGED WET WEATHER
SO FAR THIS MONTH HAS FINALLY MOVED EAST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS. WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO GRADUALLY ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION, ESPECIALLY ALOFT,
AND WILL TAKE UNTIL MIDDAY FOR THE REMAINING LOW AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS TO FINALLY CLEAR OUR FORECAST AREA. SINCE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STILL REMAINS PLENTIFUL WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S, SOME PATCHY FOG WILL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WHERE WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND SKIES SUFFICIENTLY CLEAR, AND HAVE ADDED MENTION
TO GRIDS.
OTHERWISE, IT WILL FINALLY START TO FEEL LIKE FALL TODAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND DECREASING RH AS
DEWPOINTS SLOWLY FALL INTO THE 50S. TONIGHT LOOKS QUITE PLEASANT
AND A WINDOWS-OPEN KIND OF NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION AS LOWS
DROP INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. ONCE AGAIN, SOME PATCHY FOG
APPEARS POSSIBLE AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE LOW AND WINDS
LIGHT OR CALM, WITH FOG MOST LIKELY IN OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN
COUNTIES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND CONTINUES TO
APPEAR MOSTLY DRY WITH COOL NIGHTS IN THE 50S/60S AND WARM DAYS
IN THE 80S/LOW 90S. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
EACH MORNING THANKS TO THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS, AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS, WITH ANY FOG MOST LIKELY IN
OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE (10
PERCENT OR LESS) OF A FEW SHOWERS IN OUR CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES
ON THURSDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WEST TEXAS ATTEMPTS TO
PULL SOME GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER, MODELS
DISAGREE ON THIS POTENTIAL AND MOST IF NOT ALL OF OUR AREA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE COUNTRY WILL UNDERGO A
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A SUBTROPICAL
JET TAKING SHAPE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO TEXAS. THIS COULD
BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES AFTER THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD, BUT
POTENTIAL IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT IN TIME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AIRPORTS THIS TAF PERIOD. SOME
SCT LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL AFFECT D10 AND ACT THROUGH MIDDAY
WITH SKC ANTICIPATED AFTERWARDS. NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
5-10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 81 62 81 61 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 81 62 83 61 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 83 57 82 55 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 82 58 82 57 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 81 58 80 57 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 82 62 82 61 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 82 59 82 59 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 81 61 83 60 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 83 62 84 61 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 83 55 84 56 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM....SHAMBURGER
AVIATION...SHAMBURGER
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