971
FXUS64 KFWD 182252
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
552 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEK, WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURNING ON WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(SUNDAY AND MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING PRESENTS WITH BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THE PREVIOUSLY CUTOFF LOW THAT WAS LOCATED
WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EJECTING AS A SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST, WHILE AREAS NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ARE
POSITIONED BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET
STREAK EQUATORWARD OF A SHORTWAVE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA.
THE POLAR JET RESIDES NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
A MESO-BETA SCALE PATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE NORTH
TEXAS. IT APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY LOCALIZED VORTICITY
MAXIMUM THAT IS TAKING ADVANTAGE OF LINGERING UPPER- LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF FORMER HURRICANE SIMON. SOME OF LAST
NIGHT'S MODEL GUIDANCE (SPECIFICALLY THE 18/00Z DETERMINISTIC
HRES ECMWF) DID PERHAPS SUGGEST A LOCAL VORTICITY MAXIMUM TO BE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MESSIER FIELD. VERY WEAK RADAR RETURNS WERE
SEEN ALOFT THIS MORNING AS SHALLOW VIRGA MOVED FROM WSW TO ENE
ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE I-30 CORRIDOR, DIRECTLY DOWNSTREAM OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER DEPICTED ON BOTH VAPOR AND VISIBLE IMAGERY.
VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS QUICKLY EVAPORATED THE FALLOUT AND
PREVENTED IT FROM REACHING THE SURFACE.
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY. A BULK OF
THE CLOUD COVER ORIGINATING FROM THE SIERRA MADRE OUT AHEAD OF
HURRICANE TRUDY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA AS THE FLOW ALOFT
VEERS WITH HEIGHT FROM SW AT 500MB TO W AT 300MB. HIGHS IN THE LOW
70S AND LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT RIGHT AROUND 50F, WITH THE
USUAL TREND OF SLIGHTLY COOLER TO THE WEST.
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY AS IT
PROGRESSES NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. SYNOPTIC ASCENT WILL REMAIN LARGELY
WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER-70S WITH A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS AROUND.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
WARM AND GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING
WORKWEEK. TROUGHING WILL AMPLIFY OFF THE WEST COAST AS A CUTOFF LOW
SITS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND A SHORTWAVE DIGS SE THROUGH
EASTERN CANADA. THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL SEE RIDGE AMPLIFICATION
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO THE UPPER-80S BY THE
WEEKEND. THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH IS PROGGED TO OPEN AND OVERSPREAD
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON FRIDAY. DEEP LAYER ASCENT LOOKS TO REMAIN
WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE CURRENT ANTICIPATED TRAJECTORY OF THE SYSTEM
WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE TRAILING FRONT IS LIKELY TO STALL NORTH OF
THE AREA AS IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY DISPLACED FROM THE SURFACE LOW.
SATURDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO FRIDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGING IN SOME RELATIVELY HIGHER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND OF 5-8 KT. A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
THE EXTENT OF SKY COVER THROUGH TOMORROW.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 52 76 57 79 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 50 76 54 82 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 47 76 50 77 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 50 75 54 79 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 50 76 54 78 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 53 77 57 80 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 49 77 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 51 76 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 51 76 54 80 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 47 75 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DORNSIFE
LONG TERM....DORNSIFE
AVIATION...STALLEY
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