211
FXUS64 KFWD 041019
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
419 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND LOWS IN
THE 30S ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE IN NORTH TEXAS TODAY BUT WITH LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE
RAIN.
- WARM, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S/70S TO
NEAR 80.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH CONTINUED
WARM ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
IT'S A COOLER MORNING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE WAKE
OF YESTERDAY'S COLD FRONT, WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
40S NORTH TO LOW 50S SOUTH. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S, LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S TO AROUND 40 BY SUNRISE. HOWEVER,
MID LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING SOUTHWARD FROM OKLAHOMA COULD KEEP LOWS
FROM DROPPING AS MUCH AS FORECAST. HIGHS TODAY WILL ONLY REACH
THE 50S TO LOW 60S, WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. AN UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE-TILT TROUGH CURRENTLY
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DIVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY, BRINGING
MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TO NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES.
AFTER THAT, ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AS SKIES
CLEAR OUT ALLOWING LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 30S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
AFTER THE LENGTHY PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN LATE
JANUARY, THE OPPOSITE WILL OCCUR WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING THURSDAY AND LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK - ALL THANKS TO A LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NORTHWARD FROM
THE WESTERN GULF UP INTO WESTERN CANADA. HIGHS LOOK TO REACH THE
60S/70S ON THURSDAY AND 70S TO AROUND 80 FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY PER NBM GUIDANCE. SEVERAL MODELS ARE NOTABLY EVEN WARMER
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, ALTHOUGH STILL WELL BELOW RECORD HIGHS
WHICH ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN
WEAK FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NO NOTABLE RETURN FLOW
FROM THE GULF, SO NO RAIN IS ANTICIPATED. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK,
STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF WILL SETUP AS A LARGE H5
TROUGH TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, WHILE AN UPPER LOW
NOTED ON 00Z GUIDANCE MOVES SLOWLY FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO
TEXAS FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING US
SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES THESE THREE DAYS, BUT GUIDANCE REMAINS
VASTLY DIFFERENT ON THIS POTENTIAL AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ARE WARRANTED AT THIS RANGE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD WITH BROKEN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS BETWEEN 10-20K FT AND SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AROUND
5-10K FT THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS THIS
MORNING WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE
WINDS DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KNOTS WHILE BECOMING MORE
NORTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY AFTER 04/01Z.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 58 35 66 43 / 10 0 0 0
WACO 60 35 65 44 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 53 31 61 39 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 56 30 66 38 / 10 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 56 32 65 40 / 10 0 0 0
DALLAS 58 36 65 45 / 10 0 0 0
TERRELL 57 32 65 40 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 61 35 66 42 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 61 34 67 40 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 59 31 69 40 / 10 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM....SHAMBURGER
AVIATION...SHAMBURGER
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