464
FXUS64 KFWD 271848
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
148 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.
- A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH A
PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STORMS BEGINNING EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
- HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE BECOMING A CONCERN
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A LOW (25%)
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING 7 INCHES IN SOME AREAS AT
THIS TIME.
- INCREASED CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH A COOL FRONT KEEPING THE COOLER
AIR IN PLACE FOR A FEW MORE DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, A SMALL JETSTREAK IS
TRAVERSING THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE
EXITING THE AREA LATER TODAY. A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE/BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS FROM AROUND WICHITA FALLS AT THE
SURFACE TO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER. ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY ZONE, MOISTURE IS POOLING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE IS
OCCURRING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS WITH THE BEST CHANCES EXTENDING JUST AHEAD OF THIS ZONE-
ROUGHLY FROM OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES INTO THE DFW METROPLEX
COUNTIES, AND ALSO EXTENDING AS FAR EAST AS THE I-35/35E CORRIDOR
INCLUDING MCLENNAN COUNTY. LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH ANY CONVECTION, BUT STRONGER STORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THE LARGER SCALE LIFT ISN'T
ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS, BUT THERE'S A LOW CHANCE A
STORM OR TWO APPROACHES SEVERE LIMITS.
MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING, BUT
WILL KEEP SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR COVERAGE AREA FOR ANY ACTIVITY THAT MAY CREEP
DOWN FROM OKLAHOMA. IN ADDITION, ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP
ELSEWHERE WITH WEAK LIFT CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
(20-30% CHANCE) WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES IN OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. LIGHTNING
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS, BUT GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS.
TUESDAY SHOULD BE A DRY DAY WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION AS THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS WITH HURRICANE POLO MOVING INTO
MEXICO AND BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN A LARGER TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM OUR WEST.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
BY TUESDAY NIGHT, HURRICANE POLO'S REMNANT MOISTURE WILL BE
SPREADING ACROSS THE STATE AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO
MOVE SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO START
MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND/OR WAVES OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST. THE RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES
STARTING WEDNESDAY, AND EVEN THOUGH THE RAIN WILL FALL OVER 2-3
DAYS, FLASH FLOODING WILL BECOME A CONCERN. PWAT VALUES WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH VALUES
AROUND 2.3" INCHES, ENHANCING THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING THREAT
DESPITE THE ONGOING DROUGHT. NEW RAINFALL TOTALS SUGGEST MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN 2-7" OF RAIN WITH SOME TOTAL AMOUNTS OVER 8 INCHES
(~25% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AREAS).
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION HELPING TO CLEAR OUT
THE RAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT IS LOW AS THE ECMWF SLOWS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOWN
KEEPING RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BUT THE GOOD
NEWS IS OUR FIRST TASTE OF FALL SHOULD FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH NOTABLY COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAFS PERIOD, BUT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 21/22-02Z
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. SOUTH TO EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL. GUSTY WINDS IN
AND AROUND SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
LIGHTNING COULD IMPACT ANY AIRPORTS DIRECTLY.
NOT MENTIONED IN THIS TAF IS THE LOW POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. IF
CONFIDENCE INCREASES, VCSH OR VCTS COULD BE ADDED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD OR MONDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 21Z.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 75 95 76 96 / 30 20 0 0
WACO 74 97 74 96 / 30 10 0 0
PARIS 69 91 70 94 / 20 20 0 0
DENTON 72 96 74 96 / 30 20 0 0
MCKINNEY 71 94 72 95 / 30 20 0 0
DALLAS 76 96 77 97 / 30 20 0 0
TERRELL 72 95 73 96 / 30 20 0 0
CORSICANA 73 95 73 95 / 20 10 0 0
TEMPLE 72 98 72 98 / 20 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 70 96 72 95 / 20 20 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JLDUNN
LONG TERM....JLDUNN
AVIATION...JLDUNN
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