029
FXUS64 KFWD 112322
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
622 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
- IT WILL REMAIN WINDY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
- A WARM-UP WILL TAKE PLACE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
THE LAST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
OUT OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY
PUSHES ACROSS OUR STATE. AT THE SAME TIME, A SURFACE COLD FRONT
IS MOVING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS
BEHIND IT. WHILE WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG STORMS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON, THE OVERALL THREAT HAS DECREASED. ANY
STORM THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED. LATEST HIGH-RES
MODELS SHOW SOME DECENT LAPSE RATES SUPPORTING SOME SMALL HAIL,
BUT THE OVERALL THREAT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED. THE MAIN
WINDOW FOR ANY STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM WILL BE BETWEEN
2 PM AND 7 PM BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY MOVES OUT OF OUR AREA.
OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN/STORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON, WE CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE GUSTY NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS FROM 1 PM UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL BRING DRY AND COOLER WEATHER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO THE 30S/40S BY THURSDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. NEVERTHELESS, EXPECT NICE AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
THE LONG-TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE WARMING TREND
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE
SUNDAY AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE
MID-WEEK SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S, LARGE SCALE
TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE, SOUTH WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY HELPING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 70S AND 80S
BY SATURDAY. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES MAY EVEN
REACH 90 DEGREES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS
AND COOLER WEATHER BEHIND IT. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY BE DRY, BUT
WE CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS AND
THE BRAZOS VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NOTABLE FEATURE WILL BE THE
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH LOWS IN THE
30S/40S AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S ON MONDAY. AS EXPECTED FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR, THESE "COOL-DOWNS" DON'T LAST TOO LONG. A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MID
WEEK, AND SO THE RETURN OF WARMER AND MORE SEASONAL WEATHER.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL TAF SITES AS OF 23Z
WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS PREVAILING. SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY LESSEN
DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS, EVENTUALLY SETTLING AROUND 10 KTS OR
LESS BY THURSDAY MORNING. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL ALREADY BEGIN
RETURNING TO SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE
MOSTLY CLEAR VFR SKIES PREVAIL.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 72 42 66 48 / 20 0 0 0
WACO 77 41 63 43 / 40 0 0 0
PARIS 71 38 62 43 / 50 0 0 0
DENTON 71 37 64 43 / 10 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 72 40 64 45 / 30 0 0 0
DALLAS 72 42 65 48 / 30 0 0 0
TERRELL 73 40 64 43 / 50 0 0 0
CORSICANA 74 42 66 46 / 50 0 0 0
TEMPLE 77 41 66 42 / 40 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 70 37 66 43 / 10 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>093-
100>104-115>120-129>134-141>145-156>160.
SHORT TERM...SANCHEZ
LONG TERM....SANCHEZ
AVIATION...STALLEY
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