578
FXUS64 KFWD 311047
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
547 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 97 TO 103 AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AND TUESDAY. INCREASING HUMIDITY MAY PUSH HEAT
INDICES NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ON TUESDAY.
- A TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO EASTERN
CENTRAL TEXAS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH DRY BUT
SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL AND NORTH
TEXAS DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCREASED HUMIDITY.
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
BETWEEN 96 TO 103.
- AN ELEVATED FIRE THREAT WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TOMORROW, BUT A
DECREASE IN THE FIRE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY DUE TO RAIN CHANCES, INCREASED HUMIDITY, WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS, AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
00Z 500MB UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS
BROUGHT US WEEKS OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE
EASTWARD TODAY INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
FALLING SLIGHTLY OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT WE SAW ON
SUNDAY, BUT STILL HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE 97 TO 103 RANGE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS NOTABLY LOWER THIS MORNING WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE
50S AND 60S AT THIS HOUR, AND GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS TODAY NO RAIN
IS ANTICIPATED.
BY TOMORROW, DEEPER GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN GULF. WITH HOT TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S STILL ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY, AFTERNOON
HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY CLIMB ABOVE OUR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
PARTS OF OUR EASTERN HALF. SINCE THIS LOOKS BORDERLINE ATTM, WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY HEAT ADVISORY FOR NOW AND LET LATER SHIFTS
EVALUATE THE NEED FOR ANY HEAT HEADLINES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
SPEAKING OF THE TROPICS, OUR MIDWEEK FORECAST HAS UNDERGONE SOME
NOTABLE CHANGES SINCE YESTERDAY DUE TO THE UNEXPECTED DEVELOPMENT
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST.
ALTHOUGH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED THIS SYSTEM WOULD REMAIN
UNORGANIZED, SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BUOY/OIL RIG OBSERVATIONS SHOW
A CLOSED CIRCULATION TAKING SHAPE SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST.
THEREFORE, NHC INDICATES A TD OR TS IS LIKELY TO FORM TODAY BEFORE
THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS GENERALLY BRING THE WEAKENING SYSTEM
NORTHWESTWARD UP THE I-45 CORRIDOR INTO OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN SHOW THE SYSTEM FALLING APART
AS IT RUNS INTO THE UPPER RIDGE AND DRIER AIR ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
BASED ON ALL OF THIS, POPS HAVE BEEN GREATLY INCREASED ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
TIMEFRAME IN LINE WITH THE LATEST NBM GUIDANCE. MODEL QPF IS ALL
OVER THE PLACE, BUT GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE AND WEAKENING NATURE OF
THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM, ONLY LIMITED RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN OUR
FORECAST AREA SEEM LIKELY. CURRENT THINKING IS FOR 0.25 TO 1
INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES, WHILE MOST OF THE CWA WEST OF I-35 AND NORTH OF I-20
RECEIVES LITTLE IF ANY RAIN FROM THIS EVENT. EVEN SO, MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL BRING A SLIGHT
REPRIEVE FROM THE INTENSE HEAT WITH TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE
90S, WHILE ALSO REDUCING OUR FIRE THREAT FOR A FEW DAYS.
BY THIS WEEKEND, 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDING
BACK WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE
STRENGTHENING ONCE AGAIN. THIS PATTERN SHIFT SHOULD SHUTOFF OUR
RAIN CHANCES WHILE ALSO SENDING OUR TEMPERATURES BACK UP INTO THE
100S FOR LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 547 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS TAF PERIOD WITH JUST A FEW
CLOUDS AROUND 10K FT AND SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 101 81 100 79 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 100 77 99 75 / 0 0 10 20
PARIS 100 76 98 75 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 101 77 100 75 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 100 76 99 75 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 102 81 101 79 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 101 76 100 74 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 100 77 99 75 / 0 0 10 20
TEMPLE 100 75 99 74 / 0 0 10 20
MINERAL WELLS 101 73 100 73 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM....SHAMBURGER
AVIATION...SHAMBURGER
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