595
FXUS64 KFWD 211059
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
559 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO EXCEED 100 DEGREES FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORY
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND SATURDAY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE
INTO NEXT WEEK.
- HOT TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED
WILDFIRE STARTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION THANKS TO THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF A HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE
THAT EXTENDS WELL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LOCALLY, AN EXTREME
HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING 108 DEGREES TODAY. MEANWHILE, A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR CENTRAL TEXAS AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN
BELOW 104 AND HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE LARGELY BELOW 110 DEGREES.
WITH THE CENTER OF THE 500MB HIGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION,
ELEVATED NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS FLOW WILL SEND A WEAK SHORTWAVE SOUTHWARD, ENTERING OUR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MIXING WILL
LEAD TO AN OVERALL REDUCTION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, BETTER
MOISTURE ABOVE 700MB WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THE HIGHEST STORM
CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES, WHICH ARE
FARTHER REMOVED FROM AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. GIVEN DEW-POINT
DEPRESSIONS OF 30-40 DEGREES, STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS. THIS INITIAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY WANE AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MAY FOLLOW CLOSELY BEHIND AND ARRIVE EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING, LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST. CONFIDENCE IN THIS ACTIVITY
REMAINS LOW, HOWEVER, WE'LL CONTINUE TO CARRY A 20% CHANCE OF RAIN
OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
GIVEN OUR OVERALL PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE, WE'LL CONTINUE TO DEAL
WITH HOT WEATHER CONDITIONS AS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
EXPERIENCES AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 102 TO 109 DEGREES.
THIS HEAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.
ON SATURDAY, NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST WITH ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE SOUTHERN BASE OF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH. WITH
THE SHORTWAVES SUPPLYING WEAK FORCING ALOFT, A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR TO TODAY, THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL WANE AFTER SUNSET
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, LEAVING PRECIPITATION-FREE
WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOOKING AT THE REST OF THE WEEK, VERY LITTLE SHIFT IN THE MID-
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENSURE NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE HOT AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. PRECIPITATION
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT GIVEN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
EXPECTED, HOWEVER, MOST LOCATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE
WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
THE COMBINATION OF THE DRY GRASSES, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, HOT
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY PRECIPITATION-FREE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE AN INCREASED THREAT OF WILDFIRE ACTIVITY. EVEN
WITH LOW WIND SPEEDS, INITIAL ATTACK TYPE FIRES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A CONCERN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT (<10KT) AND GENERALLY SOUTHERLY, BEGINNING SW
THIS MORNING AND BACKING TO THE SE BY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO STAY IN EAST TX THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT MAY IMPACT
THE BONHAM CORNER POST, PARTICULARLY IN THE 21-00Z WINDOW. ANOTHER
SUBTLE DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTH TX OVERNIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS TO METROPLEX SITES IS
LOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THESE STORMS.
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW MAY BRING TEMPORARY WIND SHIFTS TO THE
METROPLEX SITES.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 106 82 106 82 / 10 10 10 10
WACO 103 79 104 79 / 10 10 20 20
PARIS 104 77 104 75 / 10 30 20 10
DENTON 106 80 106 79 / 10 10 10 10
MCKINNEY 104 79 103 78 / 10 20 10 10
DALLAS 107 82 107 82 / 10 20 10 10
TERRELL 105 77 105 77 / 10 20 10 10
CORSICANA 104 79 104 79 / 20 20 10 10
TEMPLE 103 78 105 79 / 10 10 20 20
MINERAL WELLS 107 76 108 77 / 10 10 10 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-131>134.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ129-130-135-
141>148-156>162-174-175.
SHORT TERM...HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ
AVIATION...HERNANDEZ
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