245
FXUS64 KFWD 021050
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
550 AM CDT FRI JUN 2 2023
..NEW AVIATION, SHORT TERM
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
UPDATE:
STORMS THAT MOVED INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY
EVENING HAVE DISSIPATED OVERNIGHT.
TODAY WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM AND RAIN-FREE BUT ADDITIONAL STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT (SEE
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS).
THE CURRENT FORECAST ONLY NEEDS SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
TEMP/DEW POINT AND WIND GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
79
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
LIFTING ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO MORE STABLE AIR. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO MAY HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO REACH THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE, TONIGHT WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND
SEASONABLY WARM WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT ON FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN A MOSTLY SUNNY AND
WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. SUBSIDENCE
UNDER THE RIDGE SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE (EASTERN ZONES) CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN
LIFT FROM ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL COINCIDE WITH AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION. THESE STORMS SHOULD BECOME SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED
WITH FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. GENERAL STORM MOTION WILL BE
NORTHEAST/EAST WITH STORMS LIKELY REACHING THE WESTERN ZONES BY
EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR MOST OF FRIDAY NIGHT,
STORMS WILL ENCOUNTER MORE STABLE AIR AND WEAKER SHEAR AS THEY
MOVE EAST. THEREFORE, MOST STORMS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS,
BUT LOCATIONS WEST OF US 281 WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND DOWNBURST
WINDS. UNLIKE TONIGHT, THE EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL
TAKE STORMS DEEPER INTO THE CWA WITH ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE REGION HAVING A CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
BEFORE SUNRISE SATURDAY.
79
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 400 AM CDT FRI JUN 2 2023/
/THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK/
THE FIRST WEEKEND OF JUNE WILL BEGIN WITH A DECAYING COMPLEX
ARRIVING FROM WEST TEXAS. ALTHOUGH THE DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE WILL
ENCOURAGE THE REMAINING ACTIVITY TO INVADE NORTH TEXAS, AS THESE
CELLS MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE PARENT SHORTWAVE, THEY WILL FIND
STEADILY WEAKENING INFLOW. NOW WITHIN THE SCOPE OF CONVECTION-
ALLOWING GUIDANCE, THE CONSENSUS IS FOR FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TO
REMAIN AT DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. TEPID SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW
ANY OUTFLOW TO SURVIVE THROUGH PEAK HEATING, AND WITH LITTLE
MORNING ACTIVITY, THE UNCAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH A COL WILL
BE MORE THAN WILLING TO CONVECT. IN ADDITION, RENEWED DEVELOPMENT
CLOSER TO THE LINGERING TROUGH MAY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THESE ARE BOTH CONDITIONAL SCENARIOS, BUT INSTABILITY WILL
STEADILY INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON, ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT
DO OCCUR WILL FIND RICH PW. CELLS WILL MOVE LITTLE IN THIS LOW-
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, ENHANCING RAINFALL AMOUNTS, BUT THE ASSOCIATED
UPDRAFTS MAY HAVE A LIMITED LIFESPAN. HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE EARLY STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT, AND COLLAPSING STORMS COULD HAVE
AN ATTENDANT WIND THREAT, BUT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN THE
PRIMARY CONCERN.
SHOWERS ON THE HIGH PLAINS WILL APPROACH AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING. AS
TROUGHING BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED ABOVE NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS,
THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SURVIVING THE JOURNEY.
MORE FAVORABLE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY, PERHAPS IN A SEAMLESS
TRANSITION FROM NOCTURNAL/MORNING TO AFTERNOON/EVENING. SUNDAY IS
CLEARLY THE WETTER OF THE TWO DAYS, WITH HIGH PRECIPITATION
EFFICIENCY AND SLOW-MOVEMENT ONCE AGAIN ENHANCING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. WITH OUR RECENT (ALBEIT BRIEF) RESPITE FROM SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL THAT MANY AREAS WILL CONTINUE THAT
TREND ON SATURDAY, THE FLOODING CONCERNS ON SUNDAY SHOULD ONLY BE
ISOLATED.
THE BLOCKED FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS WILL MAINTAIN A RATHER MUDDLED
PATTERN FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK.
RELATIVE RIDGING WILL TRY TO STRENGTHEN BETWEEN TWO CYCLONES ON
OPPOSITE COASTS, BUT POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND EARLY SUMMER
HEAT LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BUT FOR TEXAS,
SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL WITH DAILY SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES ABOVE EARLY JUNE CLIMO.
25
AVIATION
/NEW/
/12Z TAFS/
NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN
12 KNOTS EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. THE WIND MAY BRIEFLY
BACK TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS A
RESULT OF CONVECTIVELY INDUCED OUTFLOWS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE EASTWARD THIS EVENING. THE BOWIE CORNER POST
WILL LIKELY SEE IMPACTS FROM THESE STORMS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. AS STORMS MOVE EAST TOWARD THE TAF SITES THEY ARE EXPECTED
TO ENCOUNTER MORE STABLE AIR AND WEAKEN. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THIS TAF PACKAGE BUT WILL MENTION VCSH
BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO ADD VCTS OR EVEN
A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDER IF CONFIDENCE IN STORM LONGEVITY
INCREASES.
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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 91 72 88 70 85 / 5 30 40 30 70
WACO 89 70 89 69 86 / 0 10 20 30 70
PARIS 89 70 87 67 85 / 10 10 60 20 50
DENTON 90 68 87 65 84 / 10 30 50 30 70
MCKINNEY 89 69 86 67 84 / 10 20 50 20 60
DALLAS 91 73 90 70 86 / 5 20 40 30 70
TERRELL 89 70 88 67 85 / 10 10 40 20 60
CORSICANA 91 72 90 70 86 / 5 10 30 20 70
TEMPLE 90 68 90 67 85 / 0 5 10 20 70
MINERAL WELLS 90 67 88 66 84 / 10 50 40 30 70
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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