073
FXUS64 KFWD 282313
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
613 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A SAGGING COLD FRONT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL (>3-3.5") AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS ALTHOUGH A TORNADO OR
TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN
FLASH FLOODING.
- DRY AND SEASONABLY COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
WE'RE STILL LOOKING AT A VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
SEVERE WEATHER RISK INCREASES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WELL DEFINED
DRYLINE TO OUR WEST (WEST OF ABILENE) AND A NEARLY STATIONARY
COLD FRONT ALONG THE RED RIVER. THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE WARM
SECTOR (OUR AREA) REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE AND SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR AND ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE TIMING OF THE SEVERE
STORMS HASN'T CHANGED MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. WE'RE STILL
LOOKING AT STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR/ALONG THE RED RIVER FROM NOW
UNTIL ~5PM, PUSHING THROUGH THE I-20 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 5AND 9PM,
AND FINALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES THROUGH 1AM.
MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS (INCLUDING THE DFW METROPLEX) HAS THE
GREATEST THREAT TO SEE VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WHILE
THE TORNADO THREAT IS LOWER, WE COULD STILL SEE A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
STRENGTHEN. THAT BEING SAID, WE STILL WANT TO REITERATE THAT THE
ENVIRONMENT IS VERY CONDUCIVE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WITH A POTENTIAL
TO SEE HAIL GREATER THAN BASEBALL SIZE (POTENTIALLY >3.5"). MAKE
SURE TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE WEATHER THIS EVENING AND HAVE
MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WARNINGS. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE RISK,
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING DUE TO HIGH
PWS AND VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES.
AS THE MAIN CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT, NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL FOLLOW ON THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH CLOUDS SPREADING
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW, MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS
WHERE THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. WE
CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL
AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONALLY, POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAIN MAY ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY CLIP INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS, BUT THE
CHANCES ARE LOWER (20-30%). OTHERWISE, EXPECT COOLER WEATHER
TOMORROW WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS CENTRAL
TX.
SANCHEZ
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ON TOP OF A VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THE SEVERE
WEATHER RISK REMAINS LOW WITH THIS ACTIVITY BUT THE RISK FOR
FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN THE SATURATED
SOILS. PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 1.5-1.8" WHICH WILL
PROMOTE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND STORMS. ADDITIONAL
AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 1.5 TO 3 INCHES ARE FORECAST
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. AT THIS
TIME, AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS CURRENTLY HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL
TO SEE THESE HIGHER AMOUNTS, BUT EVEN SMALL CHANGES TO THE AXIS
OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CHANGE WHERE THOSE TOTALS OCCUR. CONTINUE TO
CHECK BACK FOR FORECAST UPDATES.
IN ADDITION TO THE WIDESPREAD RAIN, WE WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S/60S. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND BUT WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND
PUSHES THE MOISTURE OUT OF OUR AREA. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
THE 80S REGION WIDE.
SANCHEZ
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ONGOING IN D10 THROUGH
02/03Z. GIVEN THE WEAKENING TREND IN THE STORM MOVING INTO
NORTHERN DALLAS COUNTY, WILL ONLY KEEP TSRA/VCTS IN THE TAFS
THROUGH 02Z. TONIGHT AFTER 06Z, MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE INTO ALL TAF
SITES AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN D10 (20-30% CHANCE), BUT
POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. IFR IS INCLUDED AT KACT
WHERE THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. EVEN IF
ACTIVATION IS NOT LOCALLY REQUESTED, ANY REPORTS OF HAZARDOUS
WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE APPRECIATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 89 60 71 61 / 80 60 20 20
WACO 92 66 74 63 / 30 50 50 40
PARIS 81 58 71 57 / 80 60 30 20
DENTON 88 56 69 57 / 80 40 10 20
MCKINNEY 87 58 70 60 / 90 50 20 20
DALLAS 90 61 73 62 / 80 60 20 20
TERRELL 87 62 72 61 / 70 80 30 30
CORSICANA 91 66 76 64 / 40 70 50 40
TEMPLE 92 68 78 63 / 10 30 50 40
MINERAL WELLS 93 57 70 57 / 50 30 10 20
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM....BARNES
AVIATION...DARRAH
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