526
FXUS64 KFWD 031117
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
517 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 THIS
MORNING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING,
WITH SHALLOW NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW WRAP-AROUND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW WILL ADVECT BACK INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT, ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THIS PLUME
OF MOISTURE CAN ALREADY BE SEEN ON NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS
SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION. AS THE MOIST LAYER
RIDES OVER THE COOLER POST-FRONTAL SURFACE LAYER, ADVECTION FOG
SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO MID MORNING
SATURDAY. THIS SETUP CAN SUPPORT FOG EVEN IF WINDS DON'T GO
COMPLETELY CALM, AND IT MAY BE SLOW TO IMPROVE IN THE MORE HUMID
POCKETS SOUTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX. IF THE FOG BECOMES
ESTABLISHED, VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS COULD BE LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT
AND A FEW SPOTS MAY BRIEFLY DIP INTO DENSE FOG TERRITORY,
PARTICULARLY FROM THE DFW METROPLEX SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE
BRAZOS VALLEY COUNTIES.
ANY FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT AND THIN AROUND
DAYBREAK WITH CONTINUED IMPROVEMENTS THROUGH THE MORNING AS MIXING
ENSUES. THE DECK OF MORNING CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE SLOWEST TO
SCATTER OUT OVER EAST TEXAS, BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD TREND
TOWARD PARTIAL SUNSHINE BY MIDDAY. THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS AND
THE NEARBY SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP SATURDAY'S TEMPERATURES IN
CHECK, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S AREAWIDE. NORTH
WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVERHEAD.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUIETER WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLY
MILD LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. ANY RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE FOCUSED EAST OF THE CORE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE, SO
PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT FOR SUNDAY MORNING, BUT
THE BETTER SIGNAL REMAINS TIED TO TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING TO GRADUALLY MODERATE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
HEIGHTS WILL REBUILD QUICKLY BEHIND THE EARLY WEEKEND SYSTEM.
WHILE THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE,
RIDGING IS STILL FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT A STEADY WARMUP SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING QUICKLY TO WELL ABOVE
EARLY JANUARY NORMALS. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 70S,
WITH A FEW READINGS AT OR ABOVE 80 DEGREES POSSIBLE IN THE BIG
COUNTRY ON MONDAY.
THE WARMUP WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING BOUNDARY-LAYER
MIXING, AND TUESDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE MOST FAVORABLE DAY
FOR LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY. PORTIONS OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND
AREAS WEST MAY FALL INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE, WHICH COULD
LEAD TO AN UPTICK IN GRASS FIRE STARTS AND SPREAD WHERE FUELS
REMAINS RECEPTIVE. WINDS DO NOT CURRENTLY LOOK STRONG ENOUGH FOR A
WIDESPREAD HIGH-END FIRE WEATHER DAY, BUT THE COMBINATION OF
ANOMALOUS WARMTH, DRY AIR, AND PERIODIC WEST-SOUTHWEST BREEZES
WILL WARRANT ATTENTION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MIDWEEK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A FAST-MOVING UPPER
DISTURBANCE AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST, WHICH
SHOULD PULL GULF MOISTURE BACK NORTH AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. FOR
NOW, THE BEST WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE AND TIMING DETAILS REMAIN LOWER CONFIDENCE
THIS FAR OUT GIVEN PERSISTENT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH
AND SPEED OF THE WAVE, BUT THE OVERALL SIGNAL SUPPORTS LOW
(20-30%) POPS RETURNING DURING THAT PERIOD.
BEHIND THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM, A COOLDOWN IS POSSIBLE LATE WEEK,
THOUGH THE BROADER TRENDS STILL FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF THE NEW YEAR
WITH NO PROLONGED COLD AIR IN SIGHT AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A BATCH OF STRATUS ON THE EAST
DOORSTEP OF THE METROPLEX AIRPORTS AND SPREADING WEST-SOUTHWEST.
THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE ARRIVING RIGHT AROUND OR JUST BEFORE SUNRISE,
AND MAY BRING A QUICK ROUND OF IFR TO AT LEAST DAL AND DFW BEFORE
MOVING SOUTH AND DISSIPATING. WILL HENCE KEEP A TEMPO IFR GROUP FOR
DFW, DAL AND GKY FROM 13Z TO 15Z, THEN AT KACT FROM 14Z TO 16Z,
WITH VFR EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THEREAFTER. NORTH WINDS OF 10-12KT
WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTHEAST OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT,
EVENTUALLY VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 14Z SUNDAY MORNING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 64 41 66 49 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 67 40 67 48 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 60 37 61 44 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 63 34 65 45 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 62 36 64 47 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 65 41 67 50 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 64 37 64 46 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 67 41 68 48 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 69 39 69 46 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 66 36 70 45 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...30
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