072  
FXUS64 KFWD 231042 AAA  
AFDFWD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX  
542 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
/NEW/  
UPDATE:  
/TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING/  
 
EVERYTHING DISCUSSED IN THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION BELOW  
IS STILL REPRESENTATIVE WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES,  
POPS, WINDS, OR CLOUD COVER.  
 
05/MARTY  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:  
/THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING, THOUGH IT WILL BE  
BREEZY, SLIGHTLY WARMER, AND MORE HUMID THAN FRIDAY MORNING THANKS  
TO CONTINUED CAPPING IN THE 850-700MB LAYER THAT SHOULD LIFT AND  
WEAKEN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED-BROKEN MORNING STRATUS  
MAY PROVIDE SPOTTY LIGHT DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES/OR FOG AREAS EAST OF  
I-35/35E AND SOUTH OF I-20/30 EARLY THIS MORNING. MOSTLY SUNNY,  
BREEZY, AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH  
HIGHS WARMING WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW LOCALES WEST OF US-281  
AND N OF I-20 PUSHING THE 90 DEGREE PLATEAU. THESE TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 75 AND 80  
DEGREES FOR LATE OCTOBER. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVING  
NORTHEAST UP THE TEXAS COAST, BETTER MOISTURE, AND A POSSIBLE  
SEABREEZE SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING NORTHWARD SHOULD INDUCE WIDELY  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH  
NIGHTFALL. LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE  
DEPARTING COASTAL MID LEVEL IMPULSE SHOULD SPELL AND END TO LOW  
CONVECTIVE CHANCES AFTER SUNSET.  
 
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY, BREEZY, AND WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE  
BEYOND NIGHTFALL THIS COMING EVENING, AS A STRONG 40KT+ LLJ  
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING EAST  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS IS EXPECTED  
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, THOUGH MORE  
WIDESPREAD THAN WHAT WE'LL SEE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COMBINATION  
OF THE OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AND STRONG SOUTH WINDS, EXPECTED  
STRATUS THAT WILL INSULATE AGAINST TERRESTRIAL RADIATION RELEASE,  
AND HIGH SURFACE DEW POINT VALUES IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S  
WILL RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO FALL BELOW 70  
DEGREES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  
 
05/MARTY  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
/ISSUED 322 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021/  
/SUNDAY ONWARD/  
 
AN ACTIVE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO A QUIET LATTER  
HALF OF THE WEEK. BEFORE THE WEATHER QUIETS DOWN, WE'LL HAVE TO  
CONTEND WITH A FEW STORM CHANCES SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN AGAIN  
TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE  
STORMS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM. MUCH UNCERTAINTY  
REMAINS AT THIS TIME, THEREFORE, MAKE SURE TO REMAIN INFORMED  
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK FOR THE LATEST  
INFORMATION.  
 
SUNDAY & MONDAY  
 
A WARM AND MUGGY SUNDAY MORNING WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER CAN BE  
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. A STRONG  
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE ADVECTING GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE  
NORTHWARD, PUSHING DEW POINT TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S TO  
LOWER 70S. A RATHER COMPACT SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE  
COASTAL REGION ON SUNDAY, CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO  
DEVELOP ACROSS THE BRAZOS VALLEY AND EAST TEXAS. THE WARM AIR  
ADVECTION SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO OUR  
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AS A RIBBON OF ELEVATED MOISTURE STREAMS  
NORTHWARD.  
 
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS, SPREADING PLENTY OF ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM,  
AS WELL AS PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY  
PUSH INTO NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING SOMEWHERE IN  
NORTH TEXAS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL STALL  
ACROSS THE I-30 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE NIGHT.  
 
FORECASTING STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT BECOMES A BIT  
TRICKY AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE LEADING EDGE  
OF THE FRONT, REDUCING THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NECESSARY FOR  
APPRECIABLE LIFT. IN ADDITION TO THE LACK OF LOW-LEVEL  
CONVERGENCE, MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL BE ARRIVING WITHIN OUR  
REGION AS RIDGING STRENGTHENS TO OUR WEST. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF  
INSTABILITY, BUT GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND NO SOURCE OF  
SIGNIFICANT ASCENT, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW AND  
CONFINED TO OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES, CLOSER TO PARIS AND  
SULPHUR SPRINGS. *IF* A STORM WERE TO DEVELOP, HOWEVER, THERE  
COULD BE A STRONG TO LOW-END SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF  
ABOUT 1200 J/KG CAPE, AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ALTHOUGH WE  
CANNOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS NORTHEAST  
OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX SUNDAY NIGHT, PROBABILITY OF  
STORMS DEVELOPING WILL BE FAIRLY LOW.  
 
ANY THREAT FOR STORMS WILL COME TO AN END BY SUNRISE MONDAY AS  
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE, IMPLYING SUBSIDENCE ACROSS  
OUR REGION. WITH THE STALLED FRONT STILL IN PLACE, AREAS SOUTH OF  
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE HIGH HUMIDITY AND PLENTY OF  
LOW CLOUDS AS WE MAKE OUR WAY THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE FRONT  
WILL LIKELY BEGIN RETREATING AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON IN  
RESPONSE TO OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE  
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL APPROACH THE  
90S ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AS WINDS CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTH. FOR  
NORTH TEXAS, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE RED RIVER  
AND MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR.  
 
TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY  
 
A COMPLEX WEATHER SETUP WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE ON TUESDAY AS A  
STRONG AND DEEP TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE THE  
REMNANTS OF WHAT IS TO BECOME HURRICANE RICK IN THE PACIFIC  
MIGRATES TOWARD TEXAS.  
 
AS OF THIS WRITING, RICK REMAINS AS A TROPICAL STORM IN THE  
EASTERN PACIFIC BUT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE AS  
IT APPROACHES THE MICHOACAN, MX COASTLINE. THE LOWER AND MID-  
LEVELS OF RICK WILL NOT SURVIVE THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL, BUT  
THE UPPER-LEVEL REMNANTS WILL BE ARRIVING TO THE TEXAS BORDER  
TUESDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THE MAIN VORTICITY LOBE PLACES MUCH  
OF THE SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON, WITH THE FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF THE PRECIPITATION  
EXPECTED ACROSS THE BRAZOS VALLEY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DIVERGES  
ON JUST HOW EXPANSIVE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE GULF COAST,  
WHICH COULD HAVE IMPACTS ON STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS  
TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.  
 
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST COULD LEAD TO A  
MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INTERRUPTION ACROSS  
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS, WITH SUBSIDENCE SETTING IN BEHIND THE  
DEPARTING VORTICITY LOBE. ON THE OTHER HAND, IF PRECIPITATION  
COVERAGE IS RATHER LOW TUESDAY, MUCH MORE MOISTURE WOULD LIKELY  
ADVECT INTO NORTH TEXAS AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE  
NORTHWEST.  
 
SPEAKING OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM, RAPID HEIGHT FALLS WILL LIKELY BEGIN  
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A  
WELL AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN  
PLAINS. A TRAILING PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE  
SHORTWAVE, MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH ALONG THE FRONT, JUST  
HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION FALLS REMAINS IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME, IN  
PART DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING PRECIPITATION ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE COASTAL REGION. REGARDLESS, THE  
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A  
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FAST  
MOVING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. TOO MANY UNKNOWNS REMAIN AT THIS TIME  
TO NARROW DOWN THE SPECIFIC WEATHER THREATS AND LOCATIONS.  
CONFIDENCE IN THREATS SHOULD INCREASE AS WE PROCEED THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND.  
 
THURSDAY ONWARD  
 
AS THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION WEDNESDAY, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY PICK UP AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT  
TIGHTENS. THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS A MUCH DEEPER NEARLY STACKED  
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, WITH  
SUFFICIENT WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY. BOTH EPS AND GEFS  
MEMBERS SUGGEST THIS IS A POSSIBILITY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS  
REMAINS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO ADD TO WORDED FORECAST. FOR NOW,  
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN BELOW 15% THURSDAY BUT WILL HAVE TO BE  
MONITORED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 
AS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MIGRATES TO THE EAST, DRIER AIR WILL  
FINALLY PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A TIGHT  
PRESSURE GRADIENT AT ALL LEVELS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO WINDY  
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY, WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35 MPH IN THE  
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE SOME OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE  
DECOUPLING TAKES PLACE, BUT ANOTHER WINDY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED ON  
FRIDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY ONWARD WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70S WITH  
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 
HERNANDEZ  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
/NEW/  
UPDATE:  
/12Z TAFS/  
 
CHALLENGES NOTED BELOW ON THE 06Z TAFS DISCUSSION ARE STILL THE  
SAME WITH THE ONLY CHANGE PER CURRENT OBS/FOG IR SATELLITE ARE TO  
BRING LOW MVFR CIGS INTO THE EASTERN D10 ABOUT AN HOUR OR 90 MINS  
IN FASTER.  
 
PER DISCUSSION WITH OUR CWSU/ZFW FORECASTER, WILL HAVE A TEMPO  
GROUP OF A FEW HOURS FOR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SE PART  
OF THE D10 AND BEFORE 15Z AT DAL/GKY. I WILL KEEP DFW CAPPED AT  
LOW MVFR/010 DUE TO CONTINUED VEERING OF THE 30+ KT FLOW AT 925MB.  
 
05/MARTY  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:  
/06Z TAFS/  
 
CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: TIMING/IMPACTS OF MVFR CIGS BOTH LATER THIS  
MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WIND DIRECTION/GUSTS  
THROUGHOUT. POSSIBLE LLWS LATE TONIGHT.  
 
30-35 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 925MB ON CENTRAL/N TX RADAR VWPS  
ALREADY INDUCING SCT-BKN, MVFR CIGS ACROSS S-CENTRAL/SE TX ATTM.  
I EXPECT THESE CIGS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING QUICKLY THROUGH 09Z AND  
MIGRATING QUICKLY NORTHWARD INTO ACT BY 10Z-11Z AND POSSIBLY  
IMPACTING EASTERN D10 AIRPORTS OF DFW, DAL, AND GKY BY 12Z-13Z.  
UNTIL THEN, VFR WITH S/SSW SURFACE WINDS AOB 10 KTS. I EXPECT  
ANY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN D10 TERMINALS AND WACO TO LIFT  
INTO LOW VFR BY 18Z, BEFORE SCATTERING OUT WITH LOW LEVEL HEATING  
AND MIXING. THIS SAME MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN S WINDS 14-17 KTS  
WITH A FEW GUSTS AOA 25 KTS BY 20Z AND CONTINUING BEYOND 00Z  
SUNDAY.  
 
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH 08Z-09Z SUNDAY, BEFORE AN EVEN  
STRONGER LLJ OF 40-45+ KTS DEVELOPS BY 06Z SUNDAY WHICH "MAY"  
PROVIDE SOME LLWS IF SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE LESS THAN  
CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE NEW TAFS. THE STRONG LLJ WILL INDUCE A  
MORE WIDESPREAD DECK OF LOW MVFR CIGS ACROSS ALL D10 AND CENTRAL  
TX TERMINALS WITH SOME BRIEF IFR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AT ACT,  
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME WITH THESE FLIGHT  
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST EAST OF ACT WITH GRADUAL  
VEERING EXPECTED ABOVE THE SURFACE. S WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS WITH  
HIGHER GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.  
 
05/MARTY  
 

 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 86 72 87 67 87 / 0 0 10 10 0  
WACO 87 71 86 68 89 / 5 5 5 5 0  
PARIS 84 68 84 63 81 / 5 10 20 30 0  
DENTON 86 69 88 60 86 / 0 5 10 5 0  
MCKINNEY 85 70 86 63 85 / 0 5 10 10 0  
DALLAS 87 72 87 68 87 / 0 0 10 10 0  
TERRELL 86 70 86 65 86 / 5 5 10 10 0  
CORSICANA 85 70 86 68 88 / 10 5 10 10 0  
TEMPLE 86 70 87 67 89 / 10 5 5 5 0  
MINERAL WELLS 87 68 88 60 87 / 0 5 5 0 0  
 

 
   
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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