817
FXUS64 KFWD 180002
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
602 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
STARTS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THURSDAY.
- A COLD FRONT EARLY THIS WEEKEND WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK TO
NEAR-NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVERSPREAD NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS AS UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS OUT AHEAD OF WESTERN CONUS
TROUGHING. DESPITE THIS CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS WEST OF HIGHWAY 281
TICKING UP INTO THE MID 80S. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
BE LIMITED TO OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON (EASTLAND,
STEPHENS, YOUNG) AS A DRYLINE ENCROACHES ON OUR FORECAST AREA FROM
THE WEST. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-30 MPH WILL
OVERLAP AFTERNOON RH BELOW 30% FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON IN
THESE COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE-AVERAGE FOR MID-FEBRUARY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THE ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER THREAT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A PACIFIC FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE AND DRAGS LOWER
SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND SUBSEQUENT LOWER RH TOWARD THE I-35
CORRIDOR. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER WEDNESDAY, BUT
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S, MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH BELOW 20%, AND
DRYING FINE FUELS WILL SUPPORT AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO GRASS
FIRE STARTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY FEATURE THE GREATEST FIRE WEATHER THREAT
ALONG/WEST OF I-35 THIS WEEK AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY AND
WINDS INCREASE SOME OUT OF THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ADDITIONALLY, FINER FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT FURTHER INTO
THIS WEEK AFTER THE PAST WEEKEND'S WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S, AFTERNOON RH BELOW 20%,
AND SUSTAINED WESTERLY WINDS AT 10-15 MPH GUSTING TO 25 MPH AT
TIMES ON THURSDAY. AVOID ANY ACTIVITIES THAT COULD LEAD TO NEW
FIRE STARTS!
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE IN THE WORK WEEK DRAGGING AN
ATTENDANT WEAK COLD FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWING
FOR SOME RH RECOVERY AND LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL TAMPER THE
FIRE WEATHER THREAT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ATOP OF
THIS SHALLOW FRONTAL SURFACE AHEAD OF A FOUR CORNERS UPPER TROUGH
MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35.
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY LIGHT, GENERALLY LESS THAN
A TENTH OF AN INCH. A STRONGER PUSH OF COOL AIR WILL ARRIVE DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY KNOCKING AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY, NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 553 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL HELP
DRAG A HYBRID DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT EAST THROUGH WEST TEXAS THIS
EVENING, AND EVENTUALLY TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TX TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT MAY WEAKEN SOME AFTER SUNSET, BUT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
BREEZY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT LOCAL. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND DROP BELOW 10 KT 07-09Z AS THE FRONT DRAWS NEAR,
THEN BECOME LIGHT WEST 12-14Z WEDNESDAY WITH FROPA. A SWATH OF
LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS LIKE CIGS WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF ALL TAF SITES. WILL
KEEP AN EYE OUT TONIGHT, HOWEVER, AS THERE ARE SOME LOW PROBS OF
CIGS TEMPORARILY AFFECTING KACT AND KDAL.
THE FRONT WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A
SECOND, STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENTERS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. LIGHT
WEST WINDS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY BACK TO THE SOUTH AT 10-15KT 19-21Z
WEDNESDAY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 58 78 59 77 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 60 80 62 80 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 58 74 60 74 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 52 76 53 75 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 57 77 58 75 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 58 78 60 78 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 59 78 60 77 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 62 81 63 81 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 57 81 60 82 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 51 79 51 76 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...LANGFELD
LONG TERM....LANGFELD
AVIATION...30/MB
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