072
FXUS64 KFWD 231042 AAA
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
542 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
UPDATE:
/TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING/
EVERYTHING DISCUSSED IN THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION BELOW
IS STILL REPRESENTATIVE WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES,
POPS, WINDS, OR CLOUD COVER.
05/MARTY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT/
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING, THOUGH IT WILL BE
BREEZY, SLIGHTLY WARMER, AND MORE HUMID THAN FRIDAY MORNING THANKS
TO CONTINUED CAPPING IN THE 850-700MB LAYER THAT SHOULD LIFT AND
WEAKEN LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED-BROKEN MORNING STRATUS
MAY PROVIDE SPOTTY LIGHT DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES/OR FOG AREAS EAST OF
I-35/35E AND SOUTH OF I-20/30 EARLY THIS MORNING. MOSTLY SUNNY,
BREEZY, AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHS WARMING WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A FEW LOCALES WEST OF US-281
AND N OF I-20 PUSHING THE 90 DEGREE PLATEAU. THESE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 75 AND 80
DEGREES FOR LATE OCTOBER. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVING
NORTHEAST UP THE TEXAS COAST, BETTER MOISTURE, AND A POSSIBLE
SEABREEZE SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING NORTHWARD SHOULD INDUCE WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
NIGHTFALL. LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COASTAL MID LEVEL IMPULSE SHOULD SPELL AND END TO LOW
CONVECTIVE CHANCES AFTER SUNSET.
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY, BREEZY, AND WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE
BEYOND NIGHTFALL THIS COMING EVENING, AS A STRONG 40KT+ LLJ
DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS IS EXPECTED
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, THOUGH MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN WHAT WE'LL SEE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COMBINATION
OF THE OCCASIONALLY GUSTY AND STRONG SOUTH WINDS, EXPECTED
STRATUS THAT WILL INSULATE AGAINST TERRESTRIAL RADIATION RELEASE,
AND HIGH SURFACE DEW POINT VALUES IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
WILL RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO FALL BELOW 70
DEGREES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
05/MARTY
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 322 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021/
/SUNDAY ONWARD/
AN ACTIVE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO A QUIET LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK. BEFORE THE WEATHER QUIETS DOWN, WE'LL HAVE TO
CONTEND WITH A FEW STORM CHANCES SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN AGAIN
TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM. MUCH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS AT THIS TIME, THEREFORE, MAKE SURE TO REMAIN INFORMED
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.
SUNDAY & MONDAY
A WARM AND MUGGY SUNDAY MORNING WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. A STRONG
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE ADVECTING GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
NORTHWARD, PUSHING DEW POINT TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S. A RATHER COMPACT SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
COASTAL REGION ON SUNDAY, CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE BRAZOS VALLEY AND EAST TEXAS. THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO OUR
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AS A RIBBON OF ELEVATED MOISTURE STREAMS
NORTHWARD.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, SPREADING PLENTY OF ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM,
AS WELL AS PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
PUSH INTO NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING SOMEWHERE IN
NORTH TEXAS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE I-30 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE NIGHT.
FORECASTING STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT BECOMES A BIT
TRICKY AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE FRONT, REDUCING THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NECESSARY FOR
APPRECIABLE LIFT. IN ADDITION TO THE LACK OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE, MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL BE ARRIVING WITHIN OUR
REGION AS RIDGING STRENGTHENS TO OUR WEST. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY, BUT GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND NO SOURCE OF
SIGNIFICANT ASCENT, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW AND
CONFINED TO OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES, CLOSER TO PARIS AND
SULPHUR SPRINGS. *IF* A STORM WERE TO DEVELOP, HOWEVER, THERE
COULD BE A STRONG TO LOW-END SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
ABOUT 1200 J/KG CAPE, AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ALTHOUGH WE
CANNOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS NORTHEAST
OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX SUNDAY NIGHT, PROBABILITY OF
STORMS DEVELOPING WILL BE FAIRLY LOW.
ANY THREAT FOR STORMS WILL COME TO AN END BY SUNRISE MONDAY AS
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE, IMPLYING SUBSIDENCE ACROSS
OUR REGION. WITH THE STALLED FRONT STILL IN PLACE, AREAS SOUTH OF
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE HIGH HUMIDITY AND PLENTY OF
LOW CLOUDS AS WE MAKE OUR WAY THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY BEGIN RETREATING AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL APPROACH THE
90S ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AS WINDS CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTH. FOR
NORTH TEXAS, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE RED RIVER
AND MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY
A COMPLEX WEATHER SETUP WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE ON TUESDAY AS A
STRONG AND DEEP TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE THE
REMNANTS OF WHAT IS TO BECOME HURRICANE RICK IN THE PACIFIC
MIGRATES TOWARD TEXAS.
AS OF THIS WRITING, RICK REMAINS AS A TROPICAL STORM IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC BUT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE AS
IT APPROACHES THE MICHOACAN, MX COASTLINE. THE LOWER AND MID-
LEVELS OF RICK WILL NOT SURVIVE THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL, BUT
THE UPPER-LEVEL REMNANTS WILL BE ARRIVING TO THE TEXAS BORDER
TUESDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THE MAIN VORTICITY LOBE PLACES MUCH
OF THE SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH THE FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF THE PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED ACROSS THE BRAZOS VALLEY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE DIVERGES
ON JUST HOW EXPANSIVE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE GULF COAST,
WHICH COULD HAVE IMPACTS ON STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST COULD LEAD TO A
MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INTERRUPTION ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS, WITH SUBSIDENCE SETTING IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING VORTICITY LOBE. ON THE OTHER HAND, IF PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE IS RATHER LOW TUESDAY, MUCH MORE MOISTURE WOULD LIKELY
ADVECT INTO NORTH TEXAS AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
SPEAKING OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM, RAPID HEIGHT FALLS WILL LIKELY BEGIN
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A
WELL AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. A TRAILING PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE, MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH ALONG THE FRONT, JUST
HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION FALLS REMAINS IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME, IN
PART DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING PRECIPITATION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE COASTAL REGION. REGARDLESS, THE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS OF THIS SYSTEM COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT. TOO MANY UNKNOWNS REMAIN AT THIS TIME
TO NARROW DOWN THE SPECIFIC WEATHER THREATS AND LOCATIONS.
CONFIDENCE IN THREATS SHOULD INCREASE AS WE PROCEED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
THURSDAY ONWARD
AS THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION WEDNESDAY, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY PICK UP AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS A MUCH DEEPER NEARLY STACKED
LOW MOVING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, WITH
SUFFICIENT WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY. BOTH EPS AND GEFS
MEMBERS SUGGEST THIS IS A POSSIBILITY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
REMAINS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO ADD TO WORDED FORECAST. FOR NOW,
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN BELOW 15% THURSDAY BUT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MIGRATES TO THE EAST, DRIER AIR WILL
FINALLY PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AT ALL LEVELS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY, WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE SOME OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE
DECOUPLING TAKES PLACE, BUT ANOTHER WINDY DAY CAN BE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY ONWARD WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70S WITH
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HERNANDEZ
AVIATION
/NEW/
UPDATE:
/12Z TAFS/
CHALLENGES NOTED BELOW ON THE 06Z TAFS DISCUSSION ARE STILL THE
SAME WITH THE ONLY CHANGE PER CURRENT OBS/FOG IR SATELLITE ARE TO
BRING LOW MVFR CIGS INTO THE EASTERN D10 ABOUT AN HOUR OR 90 MINS
IN FASTER.
PER DISCUSSION WITH OUR CWSU/ZFW FORECASTER, WILL HAVE A TEMPO
GROUP OF A FEW HOURS FOR BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SE PART
OF THE D10 AND BEFORE 15Z AT DAL/GKY. I WILL KEEP DFW CAPPED AT
LOW MVFR/010 DUE TO CONTINUED VEERING OF THE 30+ KT FLOW AT 925MB.
05/MARTY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/06Z TAFS/
CHALLENGES/CONCERNS: TIMING/IMPACTS OF MVFR CIGS BOTH LATER THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WIND DIRECTION/GUSTS
THROUGHOUT. POSSIBLE LLWS LATE TONIGHT.
30-35 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 925MB ON CENTRAL/N TX RADAR VWPS
ALREADY INDUCING SCT-BKN, MVFR CIGS ACROSS S-CENTRAL/SE TX ATTM.
I EXPECT THESE CIGS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING QUICKLY THROUGH 09Z AND
MIGRATING QUICKLY NORTHWARD INTO ACT BY 10Z-11Z AND POSSIBLY
IMPACTING EASTERN D10 AIRPORTS OF DFW, DAL, AND GKY BY 12Z-13Z.
UNTIL THEN, VFR WITH S/SSW SURFACE WINDS AOB 10 KTS. I EXPECT
ANY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN D10 TERMINALS AND WACO TO LIFT
INTO LOW VFR BY 18Z, BEFORE SCATTERING OUT WITH LOW LEVEL HEATING
AND MIXING. THIS SAME MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN S WINDS 14-17 KTS
WITH A FEW GUSTS AOA 25 KTS BY 20Z AND CONTINUING BEYOND 00Z
SUNDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH 08Z-09Z SUNDAY, BEFORE AN EVEN
STRONGER LLJ OF 40-45+ KTS DEVELOPS BY 06Z SUNDAY WHICH "MAY"
PROVIDE SOME LLWS IF SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE LESS THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE NEW TAFS. THE STRONG LLJ WILL INDUCE A
MORE WIDESPREAD DECK OF LOW MVFR CIGS ACROSS ALL D10 AND CENTRAL
TX TERMINALS WITH SOME BRIEF IFR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AT ACT,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME WITH THESE FLIGHT
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST EAST OF ACT WITH GRADUAL
VEERING EXPECTED ABOVE THE SURFACE. S WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.
05/MARTY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 86 72 87 67 87 / 0 0 10 10 0
WACO 87 71 86 68 89 / 5 5 5 5 0
PARIS 84 68 84 63 81 / 5 10 20 30 0
DENTON 86 69 88 60 86 / 0 5 10 5 0
MCKINNEY 85 70 86 63 85 / 0 5 10 10 0
DALLAS 87 72 87 68 87 / 0 0 10 10 0
TERRELL 86 70 86 65 86 / 5 5 10 10 0
CORSICANA 85 70 86 68 88 / 10 5 10 10 0
TEMPLE 86 70 87 67 89 / 10 5 5 5 0
MINERAL WELLS 87 68 88 60 87 / 0 5 5 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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