082
FXUS64 KFWD 022346
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
646 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
THIS EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL 20-30% RAIN CHANCES ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- BETTER RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE AREAWIDE FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
AFTER A DRY AND WARM START OF THE WEEK, WE'RE SWITCHING BACK TO A
MORE ACTIVE PERIOD ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY LOCATED SOUTH OF I-20 THAT EXTENDS
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE ARKLATEX. WHILE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY, AREAS NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY STILL SEE ISOLATED
STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING, GIVEN THERE'S STILL SOME WEAK ASCENT
IN THESE AREAS. WE CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE MAIN THREATS. AREAS SOUTH OF THE DFW
METROPLEX, GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-20 AND ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 WILL
HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO SEE ANY SEVERE STORM. HOWEVER, WE
CAN'T RULE OUT A STRONG/SEVERE STORM A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH
OF THIS AREA AS WELL. MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, LEAVING
A QUIET NIGHT FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TX. OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON, HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 70S.
TOMORROW'S STORM CHANCES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE TODAY'S
SURFACE BOUNDARIES STALL IN CENTRAL TX AND HOW FAR EAST A DRYLINE
ADVANCES. WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS, BUT POPS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FARTHER EAST IN
FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES. OTHERWISE, EXPECT ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL REMAIN FAIRLY UNSETTLED WITH DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LATEST
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOW MORE OF THE TYPICAL DAYTIME SCATTERED
RAIN AND STORMS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WHILE AREAS ACROSS EAST
AND CENTRAL TX WILL HAVE THE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES, WE WILL KEEP
AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF NORTH
AND CENTRAL TX.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE
DESSERT SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE SEVERE RISK IS
LOWER AT THIS TIME, BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS CAN'T
BE RULED OUT. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT FOR MINOR OR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING OVER LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE SLOW MOVING STORMS OR
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND RAIN
SHOULD KEEP THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S OVER
THE WEEKEND.
LOOKING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DECREASE WITH MORE ISOLATED/SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION.
AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL AVERAGES
WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 90S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
HAVE NOW LARGELY SHIFTED WEST OF THE METROPLEX TERMINALS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FALLING
TO AOB 5 KTS AFTER 04Z. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG
TO DEVELOP AFTER 05Z TONIGHT, BUT LOCATING WHERE THIS FOG WILL
OCCUR IS UNCERTAIN AND HAS BEEN KEPT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AT 5-10
KTS WITH FEW TO SCT MVFR CIGS AT 2-3 KFT POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL
HOURS NEAR/AFTER SUNRISE. WE WILL BE MONITORING FOR ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20% AND A TAF PRECIP MENTION
WILL BE RE-EVALUATED IN A FUTURE UPDATE.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, BUT REPORTS OF
HAIL, WIND DAMAGE, STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS, OR FLOODING ARE
APPRECIATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 74 90 72 88 / 20 10 10 30
WACO 72 89 70 85 / 30 10 20 40
PARIS 71 86 69 84 / 0 0 0 40
DENTON 73 88 70 86 / 20 10 10 30
MCKINNEY 73 88 70 85 / 20 10 10 40
DALLAS 75 90 72 89 / 20 10 10 30
TERRELL 72 88 70 87 / 20 10 10 40
CORSICANA 73 90 72 88 / 20 10 10 30
TEMPLE 71 88 71 86 / 30 20 30 40
MINERAL WELLS 70 88 68 85 / 10 10 20 40
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SANCHEZ
LONG TERM....SANCHEZ
AVIATION...LANGFELD
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