374
FXUS64 KFWD 231917
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
217 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR NORTH TEXAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
- DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
AS WE HEAD INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, THE LOCAL WEATHER SITUATION
REMAIN SOMEWHAT INNOCUOUS (BUT STILL HOT AND HUMID) DESPITE AN
ACTIVE RADAR PRESENTATION JUST TO OUR NORTH. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER NORTH TEXAS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AXIS OF LOW-
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION, BUT THE CHANCE OF LIGHTNING THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON IS LOW DUE TO A CAPPING INVERSION AROUND 800 MB.
WE ARE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE CLUSTER OF STORMS ONGOING ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS, CURRENTLY NEAR QUANNAH. THESE STORMS ARE
MOVING SOUTHEAST NEAR A SURFACE BOUNDARY AND HAVE ACCESS TO
PLENTY OF WARM/UNSTABLE AIR, SO THERE IS LITTLE REASON FOR THEM
TO DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEY HAVE TRENDED MORE
WESTWARD TOWARD THE BIG COUNTRY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, BUT
STEERING CURRENTS ALOFT DO INDICATE THEM MAKING A RUN FOR OUR
WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOREOVER, A COUPLE CONVERGING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IN THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. WHILE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON, WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS ACTIVITY
MERGING INTO AN ORGANIZED COLD POOL THAT MOVES SSE TOWARD OUR RED
RIVER COUNTIES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW,
OUR CONFIDENCE REGARDING ANY CONVECTION IS VERY LOW SINCE MOST OF
THE CAM GUIDANCE HAS GROSSLY MISHANDLED THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
TODAY.
SO IN SUMMARY, OUR STAB AT THE MOST LIKELY FORECAST IS THAT A
CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD MOVE SOUTH INTO THE BIG
COUNTRY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS
SHOULD STAY JUST TO OUR WEST, WITH A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS OVER OUR
WESTERN/NORTHWEST COUNTIES. WE ALSO THINK A CLUSTER OF STORMS
SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR NORTH/NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT THAT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THE MAIN THREATS WITHIN OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD LEAD TO FLOODING. THIS IS
PARTICULARLY TRUE IF THE STRONGEST CORES OF ANY STORMS ARE ABLE
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST CARRIES PRETTY BROAD
20 POPS FOR MOST OF NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT LARGELY
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.
OUTSIDE FROM ANY PRECIPITATION, IT HAS TURNED INTO ANOTHER HOT AND
HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES A FEW
DEGREES OVER 100. TONIGHT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID, IN FACT, IF OUR
CURRENT FORECAST HOLDS (79) IT WILL BREAK THE RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE AT DFW (78, SET IN 1940). THERE HAS BEEN A STALLED
FRONT OVER OKLAHOMA THE PAST COUPLE DAYS, AND THIS FRONT SHOULD
FINALLY LIFT NORTH TOMORROW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TO MORE EFFICIENTLY MIX OUT TOMORROW AFTERNOON, ALLOWING
HEAT INDEX VALUES TO BE CLOSER TO 100 DEGREES. IT WON'T FEEL TOO
DIFFERENT THAN TODAY, BUT WE'LL TAKE ANY RELIEF FROM THE HUMIDITY
WE CAN GET AT THIS POINT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
IT'S FINALLY STARTING TO LOOK LIKE THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE WESTERLY IN THE MIDDLE TO LATE PARTS OF THIS WEEK.
ONCE THIS OCCURS, WE ANTICIPATE FOR THE REPEATED CHANCES OF
CONVECTION TO SUBSIDE. ANOTHER BENEFIT WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER MODEST MOISTURE
SURGE MOVES INLAND LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE WIND
SHIFT ALOFT WILL LARGELY BE DUE TO A SHIFT IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE DESERT SW WHICH WILL ALSO RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES.
EXPECT HIGHS TO GRADUALLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S AND EVENTUALLY
THE LOWER 100S THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT NBM
PROBABILITIES INDICATE THAT ITS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT FOR OUR
FIRST WIDESPREAD 100 DEGREE DAY TO OCCUR THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. OF COURSE, THE WILDCARD WILL BE ANY TROPICAL MOISTURE
SURGES THAT MOVE INLAND AND REGULATE TEMPERATURES AND/OR INCREASE
PRECIP CHANCES, BUT IT'S TOO FAR OUT TO SAY WE'LL GET ONE OF
THOSE OR NOT AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
A WARM, MOIST AND SEASONABLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL PROMOTE AN EXPANSIVE SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CUMULUS
FIELD THROUGH 00Z. INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM D10 NORTHWARD TO THE RED RIVER THROUGH THE
HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE ENOUGH
TO RESULT IN SOME LIMITED THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF D10 WHERE MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY IS A BIT MORE
ENHANCED. ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND
00-01Z.
HREF CLOUD FORECASTS ARE SOMEWHAT LESS BULLISH ON THE REDEVELOPMENT
OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE DFW TAF SITES WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND
HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN SCT015 CONDITIONS AT THESE LOCATIONS FROM
AROUND 11Z TO 15Z. THAT SAID, SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE CERTAINLY NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION TOMORROW MORNING, AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE
PREVIOUS MORNINGS. FARTHER SOUTH, DID KEEP MVFR CIGS AT WACO FROM
10Z TO 16Z WEDNESDAY, MIXING UPWARD TO VFR CIGS AFTER 16Z.
BIGGEST VARIABLE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST CYCLE CONCERNS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF OKLAHOMA, ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT, INTO
NORTH TEXAS. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY OCCUR EITHER THIS EVENING OR CLOSER
TO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, SHORT-TERM CAM SOLUTIONS
DISPLAY CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY IN THE LOCATION, TIMING AND
COVERAGE OF ANY ACTIVITY DROPPING SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. BELIEVE
ANY CONVECTION THAT WOULD SURVIVE THE JOURNEY INTO NORTH TEXAS
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF D10 OVERNIGHT OR
TOMORROW MORNING. THE UNCERTAINTY OF ANY IMPACTS AFFECTING THE
THE DFW TAF SITES IS GREAT ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO WARRANT
OMITTING ANY MENTION OF TSRA AT THIS POINT. THIS WILL BE A KEY
ISSUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR FORTHCOMING TAF ISSUANCES,
OBVIOUSLY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 96 79 97 77 / 30 20 10 0
WACO 93 76 94 74 / 0 10 0 0
PARIS 87 74 91 74 / 50 30 30 10
DENTON 95 77 95 77 / 30 20 20 0
MCKINNEY 93 77 94 77 / 40 20 20 0
DALLAS 97 79 97 77 / 20 20 20 0
TERRELL 94 77 95 75 / 20 20 20 0
CORSICANA 96 76 96 74 / 10 10 10 0
TEMPLE 94 75 95 73 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 96 76 97 75 / 10 20 10 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BONNETTE
LONG TERM....BONNETTE
AVIATION...BRADSHAW
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