833
FXUS64 KFWD 251816
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
116 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS (~30%) ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINFALL CAN
BE EXPECTED.
- LOW STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE,
BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANDING CUMULUS
FIELD ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TX AND RADAR IS DETECTING A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS AT THIS HOUR. THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN MODEST INSTABILITY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE IS
OCCURRING ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER
CONVECTION, BUT THIS SHOULD QUICKLY ERODE WITH STRONG AFTERNOON
HEATING. AN ACARS SOUNDING FROM ABOUT 30 MINS AGO INDICATES
NEGLIGIBLE CAPPING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS
INCREASED OVER THE LAST HOUR, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35.
AS A RESULT WE SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY, VERY WEAK LOW AND MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL PROMOTE
NEARLY VERTICAL UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT WITH INITIAL STORM MOTIONS
LESS THAN 5 KT. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT UPON
BOUNDARY INTERACTION ONCE THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY STARTS TO COLLAPSE
AND DOWNDRAFTS SPREAD OUT. WE'LL HAVE POPS AT 20-30% AREAWIDE
WITH THE INITIAL FAVORED AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT EAST OF I-35 AND
SOUTH OF I-20. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE ERRATIC WITH NEW UPDRAFTS
PROPAGATING IN THE DIRECTION OF LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY COLLISIONS.
GOES ESTIMATED PW VALUES >1.5", WEAK STEERING FLOW, AND MODEST
INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT TODAY. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
HAIL POTENTIAL, BUT THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO WANE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, BUT THE
SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH COULD CONTINUE TO ASSIST WITH STORM
MAINTENANCE AFTER DARK.
MOST OF NORTH TEXAS SHOULD REMAIN QUIET OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT VERY
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES. THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING
FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY FASTER LOW LEVEL FLOW WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME WARM
ADVECTION CONVECTION CLOSER TO MORNING. OTHERWISE, A BROAD
WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND WE'LL LIKELY SEE ADDITIONAL
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE UPSTREAM
TROUGH APPROACHING TEXAS DURING THE DAY, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF
THE STATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EAST
INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
DUNN
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING TO OUR WEST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THERE IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW ORGANIZED THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE WHICH WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON COVERAGE IN OUR
AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD A LITTLE MORE STORM
ORGANIZATION INTO CENTRAL TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH MAY LIMIT
COVERAGE FARTHER TO THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER. THE FINER
DETAILS WILL BE RESOLVED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT IT'S A GOOD
BET THAT MOST AREAS PICK UP ADDITIONAL RAINFALL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WE'LL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THIS TIME. SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS EVENTS, WEDNESDAY'S FORECAST WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON WHAT
HAPPENS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW WE THINK THERE WILL BE A
LULL IN STORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION. HOWEVER, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD AND WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN TO SHEAR APART AS IT
APPROACHES THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THIS WOULD KEEP PERSISTENT LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
DAY WEDNESDAY AND WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. RIGHT NOW, WE'VE GOT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES EAST OF
I-35 DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND HAVE BROADLY UNDERCUT THE
GUIDANCE POPS BASED ON THE THOUGHT THAT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT'S
ACTIVITY WOULD INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AT LEAST INITIALLY.
THIS MAY BE A LITTLE FAST THOUGH SO, ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED TO WEDNESDAY'S FORECAST.
THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
A STEADY FLOW OF UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES TRANSITING THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS
ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TX. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL REMAIN ISOLATED BUT CONTINUED RAINFALL COULD SUPPORT AN
INCREASING FLOOD RISK ACROSS THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND.
DUNN
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
VFR PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR BUT AN EXPANDING
CUMULUS FIELD AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS LED TO A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE LAST HOUR. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY, WE SHOULD SEE INCREASING SCATTERED STORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TX. SLOW MOVING
STORMS WILL DRIVE NEW DEVELOPMENT THROUGH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTION AND SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. WE'LL CONTINUE WITH A VCTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
AND WILL LIKELY HAVE TO TEMPO TSRA AT SOME POINT. VFR SHOULD
PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW AT 10
KT OR LESS.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 69 85 70 81 / 20 30 80 50
WACO 68 86 69 79 / 20 20 80 50
PARIS 65 83 67 80 / 0 30 30 60
DENTON 67 83 68 80 / 10 30 70 50
MCKINNEY 67 84 68 80 / 10 30 60 50
DALLAS 70 85 70 82 / 20 30 70 50
TERRELL 67 85 69 81 / 20 20 60 80
CORSICANA 69 86 71 82 / 20 20 80 80
TEMPLE 69 87 70 81 / 20 10 90 50
MINERAL WELLS 65 82 65 80 / 20 40 90 40
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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