416
FXUS64 KFWD 032344
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
644 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODIC STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
THE HIGHEST COVERAGE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT IS LOW, BUT STRONG STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 137 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
A LITTLE LESS ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS IN STORE FOR MOST
OF THE REGION, BUT A FEW POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TX. OUR SOUTHERN CENTRAL TX COUNTIES MAY SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
COVERAGE (~30-40%) EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
DISSIPATES AFTER 9-10 PM. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER RISK REMAINS
LOW, BUT WE CAN'T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH GUSTY WINDS,
SMALL HAIL, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET, BUT A COUPLE OF
STRAY SHOWERS/STORMS MAY STILL IMPACT SOME OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE TX/LA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INLAND LATE TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW, WHICH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST TX AS EARLY AS TOMORROW
MORNING. ADDITIONAL DAYTIME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
I-35. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW TO OUR EAST, COVERAGE WILL BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR OUR EAST TX COUNTIES. AGAIN, ANY STRONGER
STORM MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND
HEAVY RAINFALL RESULTING IN AT LEAST SOME FLOODING IN ANY URBAN OR
LOW-LYING AREA. OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN CHANCES, TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE 70S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
DAILY SHOWERS AND STORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. LARGE SCALE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO FETCH GOOD MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION WITH DECENT INSTABILITY STILL IN PLACE. MULTIPLE WAVES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA, BUT AT THIS TIME
IS STILL A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO PIN-POINT ANY SPECIFIC TIMING FOR
ANY LOCATION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE UPPER LOW MOVES ATOP, IS
WHEN WE WILL SEE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. WHILE NOT
EVERYONE WILL SEE RAIN ALL DAY EVERY DAY, WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND IF MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA. DETAILS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE REFINED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE PERIOD. WITH THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES, TEMPERATURES WON'T BE AS WARM AS OUR
TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER DAY. HIGHS MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR
90 DEGREES THROUGH SUNDAY.
AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE GETS CLOSER TO OUR AREA NEXT WEEK, WE WILL
SEE RAIN CHANCES COMING DOWN BUT THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
THE RADARSCOPE REMAINS CLEAR AROUND THE METROPLEX AT THIS HOUR
WITH PRECIPITATION REMAINING WELL WEST, EAST, AND SOUTH OF THE D10
TERMINALS. VCTS WILL BE CARRIED AT KACT FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS
UNTIL THE SEABREEZE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE BRAZOS VALLEY DISSIPATES
LATER THIS EVENING. WE WILL BE MONITORING THE OUTFLOW FROM THIS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO SEE IF ANY ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT CAN MAKE
IT INTO THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE METROPLEX BEFORE COMPLETELY
DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH
MVFR/IFR CIGS APPROACHING KACT AND THE METROPLEX SITES AFTER
10Z-11Z THURSDAY MORNING. THESE CIGS MAY BE MORE INTERMITTENT AT
TIMES OVER THE METROPLEX, BUT HAVE OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND KEEP A
BKN015 LINE IN THE TAF AT THIS MOMENT. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
POTENTIALLY A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 72 87 72 87 / 10 20 10 30
WACO 70 85 71 85 / 30 20 10 50
PARIS 70 82 69 84 / 10 60 20 20
DENTON 71 86 72 86 / 10 20 10 30
MCKINNEY 71 84 71 85 / 10 30 10 30
DALLAS 72 88 72 88 / 10 20 10 30
TERRELL 70 85 70 86 / 10 40 10 40
CORSICANA 71 87 72 87 / 20 40 20 40
TEMPLE 70 86 71 85 / 30 20 20 50
MINERAL WELLS 69 86 70 85 / 10 10 10 40
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SANCHEZ
LONG TERM....SANCHEZ
AVIATION...LANGFELD
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