654
FXUS64 KFWD 221057
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
557 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT TEMPERATURES NEAR OR OVER 100 DEGREES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORY REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, AND A FEW
COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER, MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN RAIN-FREE INTO NEXT WEEK.
- HOT TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED
WILDFIRE STARTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
WIDESPREAD HOT WEATHER IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THANKS TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING
THAT EXTENDS WELL INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE EXTREME HEAT
WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY
AS TEMPERATURES IN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS REACH 109 DEGREES AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN CENTRAL TEXAS APPROACH 109 DEGREES.
REGARDING THE EXPECTED HOT WEATHER, THERE IS SOME DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN TODAY'S HIGHS GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUDS
TO STREAM INTO THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
LARGE TEMPERATURE SPREAD WITHIN SHORT DISTANCES. GUIDANCE HAS
CONTINUED TO SHOW BETTER HIGH CLOUD COVER MAINLY ALONG THE RED
RIVER COUNTIES, THEREFORE, TODAY'S EXPECTED HIGHS WERE LOWERED BY
A FEW DEGREES. WITH THE LOWERING OF THE HIGHS, MONTAGUE AND COOKE
COUNTIES WERE REMOVED FROM THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AND PLACED
IN A HEAT ADVISORY.
THE CENTER OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS POSITIONED
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, LEAVING NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON
THE EASTERN TO SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH. A DISTURBANCE,
CURRENTLY NEAR OVER KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN HEIGHTS, THE WEAK
FORCING ATTRIBUTED TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE MAY GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS NORTH OF THE RED RIVER THIS AFTERNOON.
STEERING FLOW WOULD PUSH THIS CONVECTION SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD,
MAINLY INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS WEST OF I-35. SHOULD THIS
HAPPEN, A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY MIGRATE INTO OUR REGION THIS
EVENING. GIVEN THE WIDE SPREAD IN TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS,
GUSTY OUTFLOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOPS.
ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LOW, THOSE
WINDS MAY STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGE TO LOOSE OUTDOOR
DECOR OR SMALL TREE-LIMBS.
STORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING, LEAVING BEHIND PRECIPITATION-FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. ANOTHER WARM MORNING IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION WITH SUNDAY'S LOWS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
ON SUNDAY, THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SHIFT CLOSER TO NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS, ONCE AGAIN INCREASING SUBSIDENCE. THE SUBSIDENCE
WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS AT BAY WITH YET ANOTHER
DAY OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 102-108 RANGE. HEAT HEADLINES WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED LATER TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR SUNDAY'S HEAT
THREATS.
AS WE BEGIN A NEW WORK WEEK, NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE POSITIONED TO THE EAST OF THE HIGH WHICH KEEPS OUR REGION IN
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MIGRATING ACROSS THE REGION
EACH AFTERNOON, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A LOW POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS. GIVEN COVERAGE AND TIMING REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN
BELOW 15%. WITH INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS EXPECTED, A SLIGHT
DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
LARGELY BELOW 104 DEGREES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 557 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT AT ALL TAF SITES AS OF THIS MORNING AND
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL VEER SW THIS MORNING AND BACK SE THIS EVENING, REMAINING
LIGHT (<10KT) THROUGHOUT.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY CROSS THE RED RIVER INTO NORTH TX LATE THIS
EVENING, AND CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO HAS INCREASED ENOUGH TO
PLACE A PROB30 INTO THE 12Z TAFS FOR IMPACTS TO THE D10 TRACON,
INCLUDING A BRIEF NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT. THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR
STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 01-05Z; STORM LOCATION REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 104 83 106 84 / 10 10 10 0
WACO 104 80 105 81 / 10 10 0 0
PARIS 99 75 102 79 / 20 10 10 0
DENTON 104 79 106 82 / 10 20 10 0
MCKINNEY 103 78 105 81 / 10 10 10 0
DALLAS 105 82 107 84 / 10 10 10 0
TERRELL 104 78 106 81 / 10 10 10 0
CORSICANA 104 80 106 81 / 10 10 0 0
TEMPLE 104 79 106 79 / 10 10 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 107 77 108 79 / 10 20 10 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-105>107-
122-123-129-135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ100>104-
115>121-130>134.
SHORT TERM...HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ
AVIATION...HERNANDEZ
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