170
FXUS64 KFWD 291035
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
535 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY MAINLY EAST OF
I-35.
- BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE DAILY CHANCES (30 TO 50
PERCENT) FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
UPDATE:
LOW CLOUDS QUICKLY BECAME WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT, WHICH HELPED
MITIGATE ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER
AROUND MIDDAY, GIVING WAY TO A WARM AND BREEZY SATURDAY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS, WHERE 20 TO 30 POPS ARE IN PLACE. ANY STORM
WHICH DEVELOPS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY
CONCERN. THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO MAJOR
CHANGES IN THE MORNING UPDATE.
30
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/THROUGH SUNDAY/
A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING ALOFT WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE NEXT 12
TO 18 HOURS AS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BECOMES SITUATED BETWEEN AN
EXITING SHORTWAVE OVER LOUISIANA AND THE NEXT APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE IS LEADING TO PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUD FORMATION AS
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS APPROACH ZERO. DENSE FOG IS UNLIKELY DUE TO
THE EQUAL PRESENCE OF LOW CLOUDS, BUT CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT ON A LOCALIZED BASIS. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND CLOUDS WILL SCATTER
MID SATURDAY MORNING AS RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS OUT AHEAD OF THE
ENCROACHING SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST. WARM AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL
MAKE FOR AN OVERALL NICE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 80S
IN THE AFTERNOON. A DRYLINE WILL ACTUALLY ENTER THE WESTERN-MOST
COUNTIES, PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S ALONG
AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281, WHERE AN ELEVATED WILDFIRE THREAT WILL
EXIST IN THE AFTERNOON.
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THUNDERSTORMS: THE
DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO MIX EAST TO NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR
SATURDAY EVENING, AROUND THE TIME SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ARRIVES. A STRONG CAPPING
INVERSION, HOWEVER, WILL LIKELY SHUT OFF ANY SURFACE BASED
CONVECTIVE ATTEMPTS. WITH THAT SAID, A 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
DEVELOP AT OR BEFORE MIDNIGHT, WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ABOVE THE 925MB LEVEL. CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS WILL MORE THAN SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE AND THE ASSOCIATED 2000 J/KG OF
MUCAPE, ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 50 KT.
NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE STORMS DUE TO THE EXPECTED ISOLATED
COVERAGE, BUT THOSE THAT DO WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO EXPERIENCE
LARGE HAIL. RECENT CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
KEY IN ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION STILL OCCURRING SOMEWHERE NEAR
THE DRYLINE, ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR SHERMAN TO THE DFW METROPLEX
TO THE COLORADO RIVER. STORMS WOULD LIKELY DEVELOP AROUND
MIDNIGHT, AND PUSH EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACTIVITY WOULD EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AROUND MID
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET MIXES OUT.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A TRAILING SHORTWAVE DRAGS A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 AND ALONG/SOUTH OF
I-30 WHERE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL STILL EXIST. THESE STORMS
WILL HAVE A BETTER POTENTIAL OF BECOMING SURFACE-BASED, PRESENTING
BOTH A HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THREAT WHILE SPREADING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, EVENTUALLY
EXITING TO THE EAST AND SOUTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
30
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 320 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025/
/SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
..SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
BY SUNDAY NIGHT, THE PRIMARY UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE
FOR THIS WEEKEND'S STORMS WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI/OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. HIGHER HEIGHTS BUILDING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS IN TANDEM WITH DRY NORTHERLY POST-FRONTAL FLOW
AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING A CLEAR AND PLEASANT DAY TO THE REGION
ON MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. TEMPERATURES MAY NOT WARM OUT OF
THE 60S CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER. NIGHTTIME LOWS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHTS WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER, WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE LOWER 50S/UPPER 40S BOTH NIGHTS.
..TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. EMBEDDED IN STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, PERIODIC SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
EJECT OUT INTO THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGHOUT THIS UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. WHILE THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION DETAILS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN, A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RESIDE OVER MOST OF
THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS OF
INSTABILITY (2000 TO 3500+ J/KG OF CAPE) POSSIBLE EACH EVENING.
THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH PERSISTENT STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR MULTIPLE, POTENTIALLY DAILY CHANCES FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT.
SHOULD THESE DAILY CHANCES FOR STORMS MATERIALIZE, THERE WILL BE
AN INCREASING THREAT OF FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEK NEXT WEEK AS
WELL. THOUGH THERE IS STILL SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW LONG
THIS PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE, MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT GENERAL STORMINESS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
DARRAH
AVIATION
/NEW/
/12Z TAFS/
IFR CEILINGS WILL SCATTER BY MIDDAY, GIVING WAY TO VFR AND GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
TONIGHT HAS WARRANTED VCTS STARTING AT 05Z FOR THE METROPLEX.
PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW FOR ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT KACT AT
THIS TIME. ISOLATED STORMS WILL MOVE OUT WHILE MVFR CIGS MOVE IN
AROUND 09Z SUNDAY.
30
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 84 67 84 51 69 / 0 20 20 10 5
WACO 83 66 84 55 72 / 0 10 20 10 0
PARIS 80 65 79 49 67 / 0 40 30 30 10
DENTON 84 64 84 46 69 / 5 20 10 10 0
MCKINNEY 82 65 81 49 68 / 0 30 20 20 5
DALLAS 84 67 84 53 71 / 0 20 20 20 5
TERRELL 81 66 81 51 69 / 0 20 30 20 5
CORSICANA 83 67 82 55 71 / 0 10 20 20 5
TEMPLE 84 66 85 55 74 / 0 10 20 5 0
MINERAL WELLS 92 62 87 48 72 / 5 20 10 5 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page