802
FXUS64 KFWD 280543
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1243 AM CDT WED OCT 28 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS (20% CHANCE) ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND
SOUTH OF I-20 TODAY.
- HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
A WARM/MOIST ADVECTION REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY, SENDING
A SWATH OF LOW STRATUS AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME FOG INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS LATER THIS MORNING. WHILE ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL
ALOFT DEVOID OF ANY MEANINGFUL ASCENT, WARM/MOIST ADVECTION SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS EVEN A THUNDERSTORM MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20 DURING THE
DAYTIME TODAY. COVERAGE IS LIKELY TO ONLY BE AROUND 20% OR LESS.
INCREASING CLOUD COVER MAY SHAVE A COUPLE DEGREES OFF OF
AFTERNOON HIGHS, BUT THEY WILL STILL BE SOUNDLY ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. IT WILL ALSO BE INCREASINGLY AND
UNSEASONABLY HUMID AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE 60S LATER
TODAY.
THE ONSET OF SUBTLE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD LARGELY
ELIMINATE RAIN CHANCES FROM THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN BEGINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM/HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WHILE
UPPER TROUGHING DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, ALLOWING A
STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK TO IMPINGE ON THE AREA.
WIDESPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER SHOULD BEGIN STREAMING INTO THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SHOWERS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY. POPS WILL BE CAPPED
AT ROUGHLY 30% THROUGH THE DAYTIME BEFORE THE PEAK RAIN CHANCES
ARRIVE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
REMNANTS OF A PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL PHASE WITH BROAD
TROUGHING ALREADY IN PLACE HEADING INTO FRIDAY, AND THIS WILL
LEAD TO RAIN CHANCES TO END THE WORKWEEK AND BEGIN THE WEEKEND. IN
COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS, OVERALL RAIN CHANCES AND
EXPECTED AMOUNTS HAVE BOTH DECREASED SLIGHTLY, WITH THE TRAJECTORY
OF THIS SYSTEM TRENDING INCREASINGLY NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AREAS NEAR/WEST OF I-35 WILL EXPERIENCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON AN INTERMITTENT BASIS FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THIS SYSTEM GRADUALLY EJECTS
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, BUT COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL MAY
BE MUCH MORE SCANT EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. EITHER WAY, THIS
SYSTEM'S PRESENCE WILL MAKE FOR A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND THEREFORE
SLIGHTLY COOLER START TO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER
70S. AN OVERALL LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP OCCURRENCES OF
THUNDER RATHER SCARCE, AND THIS SYSTEM WILL ONLY REALLY CONSIST OF
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FOR THE LUCKY LOCATIONS THAT MANAGE TO
RECEIVE SOME. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND
BY SATURDAY EVENING, KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF HALLOWEEN EVENING
ACTIVITIES UNAFFECTED.
A MUCH MORE POTENT STORM SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO TAKE HOLD OF
THE CENTRAL CONUS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOLLOWING A LIKELY RAIN-
FREE SUNDAY, THIS RAPIDLY DEEPENING SYSTEM COULD SEND A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY,
WHICH WOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE FINER DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME CLEARER IN
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT AT A MINIMUM, A DECENT FALL FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
AN INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SEND LOW STRATUS TOWARDS
WACO AFTER DAYBREAK THIS MORNING, WHERE A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR
CIGS WILL BE ADVERTISED. THIS SCT/BKN DECK WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
TO 4-5 KFT UPON SPREADING FARTHER NORTH INTO D10 THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
METROPLEX AIRPORTS FROM MID-MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, AND VCSH
WILL BE INDICATED AT WACO AT THIS TIME. A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD AT SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 83 63 83 67 / 0 0 10 0
WACO 83 61 83 65 / 10 0 30 0
PARIS 82 56 83 62 / 10 0 0 0
DENTON 83 59 83 63 / 0 0 10 0
MCKINNEY 82 59 82 63 / 0 0 10 0
DALLAS 84 63 84 68 / 0 0 20 0
TERRELL 83 58 83 63 / 10 0 20 0
CORSICANA 82 60 83 64 / 10 0 30 0
TEMPLE 84 61 84 65 / 0 0 30 0
MINERAL WELLS 83 59 82 62 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...STALLEY
LONG TERM....STALLEY
AVIATION...STALLEY
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