521
FXUS64 KFWD 142333
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
633 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL BRING STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 50 MPH. UNSECURED OUTDOOR ITEMS MAY BE BLOWN AROUND
IN THE WIND AND DRIVING ON AREA ROADWAYS MAY BECOME DIFFICULT
FOR HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEAR AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35 ON SUNDAY DUE TO HIGH WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY.
EXTREME CARE IS URGED DURING ALL OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES WHERE THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR GRASS FIRES TO GET STARTED.
- THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE FOR A COUPLE STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS WITH A WIND AND HAIL THREAT IN FAR EAST TEXAS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- A LATE SEASON FREEZE IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
A DIGGING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER OREGON AND
IDAHO IS EXPECTED TO SWING DOWN TOWARDS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
TODAY, SPURRING SURFACE LEE CYCLOGENESIS JUST OFF THE ROCKIES IN
RESPONSE. THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION, PROMOTING AN UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS AND
GUSTS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 15- 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH AND MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WILL PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AND 80S.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING, PUSHING THE SYSTEM'S ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SOUTH AND
KEEPING WINDS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ELEVATED OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER UNABLE TO PROPERLY DECOUPLE, SUNDAY
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN THE 60S.
THE STOUT COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO REACH OUT NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES AROUND 9-10 AM, MOVING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS THE REST OF
THE MORNING. AREAS IN NORTH TEXAS MAINLY NEAR THE RED RIVER WILL
BREAK AWAY FROM THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE, OBSERVING THEIR
HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY ON BEFORE TEMPERATURES STEADILY FALL
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THE REST OF THE DAY. WITH MEAGER
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT, FROPA SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR
MOST. HOWEVER, THERE STILL REMAINS A LOW CHANCE IN OUR EAST TEXAS
COUNTIES THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO POOL ALONG THE FRONT
TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS. IF STORMS
ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP IN OUR AREA, THEN WE CANNOT RULE OUT A COUPLE
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAILSTONES. THE HIGHEST
THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS REMAINS OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA TO THE
EAST.
BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTH AND INCREASE EVEN FURTHER IN SPEEDS OVER THE AFTERNOON.
AVERAGE WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND
40-50 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
OVER THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, AND A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR ALL OF OUR 46 COUNTIES FOR TOMORROW IN RESPONSE. WHILE
SOME SPOTS IN NORTH TEXAS MAY APPROACH OUR HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA (SUSTAINED 40+ MPH / GUSTS 58+ MPH), ANY LOCATION THAT
REACHES OR EXCEEDS THAT CRITERIA WILL BE MORE SPORADIC AND
ISOLATED IN NATURE, SO WE HAVE FOREGONE ANY ISSUANCE OF THIS
PRODUCT AT THIS TIME. ALL THIS BEING SAID, IT WILL BE INCREDIBLY
WINDY TOMORROW, SO MAKE SURE TO SECURE OR BRING IN ANY LOOSE
OUTDOOR ITEMS AND TO TAKE CAUTION WHEN DRIVING ON W-E ORIENTED
ROADS.
LASTLY, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL RAMP UP PARTICULARLY ACROSS
AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF I-35 DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EVEN
WITH THE INFLUX OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND THE RECENT RAINFALL
KICKSTARTING THE SPRING GREEN-UP, THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
DRIED FUELS TO BURN ACROSS THE REGION. RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED TO DROP TO DOWN TO BETWEEN 20-25% DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW, AND WITH THOSE HIGH WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WILL PROMOTE A NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THREAT. AVOID ANY OUTDOOR BURNING AS ANY FIRE THAT IS ABLE
TO IGNITE WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY AND BE DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN. THE
PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS NOW BEEN UPGRADED INTO A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR NEAR AND WEST OF I- 35.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
OVER THE COURSE OF SUNDAY NIGHT, WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED BUT
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN SPEED. STOUT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY,
ALLOWING FOR QUITE THE CHILLY START TO THE WEEK. AREAS NEAR/NORTH
OF US-380 AND NEAR/WEST OF US-281 ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO OR BELOW
FREEZING, WITH MID-UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE. BREEZY WINDS 15-20 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH WILL KEEP THE WIND CHILL EVEN COLDER IN
THE 20S REGION-WIDE. MAKE SURE TO BUNDLE UP WHEN YOU HEAD OUT THE
DOOR! NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE DAY CHILLY, WITH
MONDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S AND ANOTHER MORNING OF UPPER
20S-MID 30S AND SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND CHILLS ON TUESDAY. BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN BY
MIDWEEK. ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING, THE DEEPENING RIDGE
WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMER LATTER HALF OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WITH VFR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THIS
EVENING, BEFORE AN INTRUSION OF LOW STRATUS OCCURS OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR CIGS NEAR 2 KFT AT ALL
AIRPORTS AFTER ~08Z, ALTHOUGH CIGS MAY BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED
AT WESTERN METROPLEX AIRPORTS OF AFW AND FTW. A GRADUAL WEST-TO-
EAST EROSION OF LOW STRATUS WILL OCCUR BY LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL
ALSO BEGIN TO VEER WESTERLY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AHEAD OF THE
ARRIVAL OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE WESTWARD VEERING COULD RESULT
IN A SHORT WINDOW OF MINOR CROSSWIND IMPACTS BETWEEN 16-18Z,
BUT SPEEDS SHOULD ALSO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER DURING THIS TIME IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
ZONE. AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO NNW WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE BY 18Z AT ALL METROPLEX AIRPORTS AND AROUND 19Z AT WACO.
EXPECT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25-30 KTS AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40-45
KTS BEHIND THE FRONT, AND THESE SPEEDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY DECLINING
SUNDAY NIGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 64 77 35 53 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 64 83 36 53 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 61 71 31 48 / 0 30 10 0
DENTON 61 76 31 51 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 63 76 32 50 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 65 80 35 53 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 62 77 33 52 / 0 10 0 0
CORSICANA 65 80 35 54 / 0 10 0 0
TEMPLE 63 84 36 55 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 62 77 31 53 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>121-123-129>134-141>146.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ091-092-
100>103-115>119-129>134-141>145-156>160-174.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ122-135-
147-148-156>162-174-175.
SHORT TERM...PRATER
LONG TERM....PRATER
AVIATION...STALLEY
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