207  
FXUS64 KFWD 020010  
AFDFWD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX  
710 PM CDT SUN AUG 1 2021  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
/NEW/  
UPDATE:  
/TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING/  
 
A VERY BUSY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PERIOD AS EXPECTED,  
AS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS (A FEW STRONG TO  
SEVERE FROM STRONG AUGUST HEATING AND INSTABILITY) HAVE OCCURRED  
ACROSS BASICALLY ALL BUT MAYBE EASTERN CENTRAL TX. THAT MAY  
CHANGE LATER THIS EVENING, AS OUTFLOWS INTERACT WITH VERY WARM AND  
UNSTABLE AIR. THE ACTUAL SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT IS HARD TO MAKE OUT  
DUE IT'S SHALLOW NATURE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, BUT APPEARS TO BE  
FROM COOPER AND GREENVILLE, TO THE NW DFW METROPLEX, TO CISCO AND  
EASTLAND AT THIS HOUR. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SINK  
SOUTHWARD AS A SHORTWAVE CONTINUES MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA TOWARD  
THE ARK-LA-TEX THIS EVENING.  
 
WITH SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVING COOLED AND STABILIZED THE  
LOW LEVELS AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY, SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES  
WERE HARD TO DECIPHER THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, THOUGH I STAYED  
TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF THE NBM, AS ANOTHER SECONDARY MID LEVEL  
IMPULSE AND ELEVATED 925-850MB FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE RED  
RIVER LATE AND LINGERS OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY. LOWS TONIGHT IN  
THE UPPER 60S AND 70S SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S,  
AS PATCHY SUNSHINE/INSOLATION HOLDS OFF UNTIL MID-LATE AFTERNOON.  
A FEW AREAS THAT CAN BREAK OUT MAY REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S FROM  
DFW AND POINTS NW, BUT THAT'S A BIG IF. BETTER RAIN CHANCES OCCURS  
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS, WHERE A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY OCCUR. ISOLATED  
TO SCATTERED COVERAGE NEAR THE 850MB FRONT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. A  
LOT OF FACTORS TO PLAY IN HERE REGARDING ENVIRONMENT, MOISTURE,  
AND FORCING MECHANISMS, SO WE'LL JUST HAVE TO LET THE ATMOSPHERE  
PLAY OUT AND SEE WHERE BOTH THE SURFACE AND ELEVATED FRONTS LAY  
OUT DURING PEAK HEATING. WITH ALL THESE STORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES,  
IT'S ANYONE'S GUESS AT THIS POINT.  
 
CONTINUED N/NE WINDS MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTH  
TEXAS SHOULD MAKE IT ALMOST FEEL SPRING-LIKE WITH LOWS FALLING  
INTO THE 60S MANY AREAS WITH A NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZE OF 10-15  
MPH. CLOUDS HOLD ON A BIT LONGER ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AS LOW  
TEMPERATURES REMAINS UP IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S MOSTLY WITH A FEW  
LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS.  
 
05/  
 

 
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:  
/THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
MORNING CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHWARD MOVING GRAVITY WAVES HAS  
WEAKENED AS ANTICIPATED WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.  
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP  
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH  
NORTH TEXAS. THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS THE  
REGION BUT LITTLE SHEAR; THEREFORE, WELL ORGANIZED STORMS WITH  
LONG LIVED UPDRAFTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER, HOT SURFACE  
TEMPERATURES AND A FAIRLY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL RESULT IN  
EFFICIENT HYDROMETEOR EVAPORATION AND A POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS.  
LIGHT STEERING WINDS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES  
WILL ALSO RESULT IN SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE  
FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD AND A SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF  
THE EASTERN U.S. LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF  
STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE BOUNDARY, BUT SOME ELEVATED STORMS WILL  
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WELL BEHIND THE FRONT IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSING  
MID LEVEL ENERGY. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT  
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING MORNING  
ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.  
 
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO THE INCREASE IN  
CLOUD COVER AND STORMS; HOWEVER, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND  
UPPER 70S LATE THIS MORNING AND TEMPERATURES WARMING AS EXPECTED,  
WE STILL FEEL THAT MOST LOCATIONS IN THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY  
WILL SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES REACH 105 AT SOME POINT IN TIME THIS  
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, WE WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY IN  
PLACE FOR NOW. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY  
OF EXCESSIVELY HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR A LITTLE WHILE WITH HIGHS  
MONDAY STRUGGLING TO REACH 90 IN MOST LOCATIONS.  
 
79  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
/ISSUED 228 PM CDT SUN AUG 1 2021/  
/MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD/  
 
MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY, LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE  
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT  
CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY ON  
TUESDAY, WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES  
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.  
 
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS WEST TEXAS WILL KEEP MOSTLY  
RAIN-FREE WEATHER IN PLACE ON WEDNESDAY, OUTSIDE OF A FEW ISOLATED  
AFTERNOON STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS. ON THURSDAY, A  
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY TAKE A DIVE INTO THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS. IT'S POSSIBLE THIS FEATURE WILL OFFER ENOUGH ASCENT FOR A  
FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY AND  
FRIDAY; HOWEVER, MODEL DISAGREEMENT IS CURRENTLY RESULTING IN  
QUITE A BIT OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.  
 
DESPITE THE LATE-WEEK UNCERTAINTY, THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT THAT  
THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN AGAIN THIS WEEKEND,  
RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RETURN TO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S BY  
SATURDAY, WITH THE HEAT CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
BARNES  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
/NEW/  
UPDATE:  
/00Z TAFS/  
 
PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE TIMING/ENDING OF CONVECTIVE RAIN CHANCES,  
AS WELL AS CONCERNS FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE D10, WITH  
MVFR/IFR AT ACT BETWEEN 09Z-15Z MONDAY MORNING.  
 
TS CONTINUE MAINLY NW OF THE D10 AIRPORTS, BUT SOME IMPACTS WILL  
BE FELT AT AFW/FTW AS THEY LAY RIGHT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF  
THIS ACTIVITY. TEMPO IFR/MVFR VSBYS FROM +TSRA REMAIN POSSIBLE  
THROUGH 01Z. REST OF THE D10 AND WACO SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH  
MULTIPLE CIG LEVELS WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH 09Z AND  
VCSH WILL SUFFICE.  
 
AS THE ELEVATED 925MB-850MB FRONT DRIFTS SOUTH IN CONJUNCTION  
WITH ANOTHER MID LEVEL IMPULSE LATER TONIGHT, ISO-SCT SHRA AND  
TSRA MAY REDEVELOP BY 08Z-09Z ACROSS THE D10 AND AROUND 12Z AT  
ACT, SO VCTS WILL BE WARRANTED BETWEEN 10Z-14Z WITH THE POSSIBILITY  
OF MVFR CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS, WITH EVEN IFR AT ACT CONSIDERING  
THE SHALLOWER FRONTAL SLOPE. OUTSIDE OF VARIABLE WINDS 10-15 KNOTS  
THROUGH MID EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS IN/NEAR ANY TS THAT  
HANG ON, THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL BE N/NE AROUND 10 KNOTS.  
 
VFR WITH VCTS CHANCES RETURN BY 18Z AND AFTER MONDAY, PRIMARILY S  
OF THE ELEVATED FRONT AND I-20 CORRIDOR, AS STRONG HEATING WORKS  
UPON PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND GOOD INSTABILITY ALOFT. CONFIDENCE IS  
LOW, HOWEVER, CONSIDERING ALL THE UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING OF  
FEATURES AND HOW MUCH WE HEAT UP. WINDS WILL REMAIN N/NE 10-15 KTS  
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.  
 
05/  
 

 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 73 89 71 91 71 / 70 50 20 5 5  
WACO 75 89 71 91 72 / 80 80 30 10 5  
PARIS 72 85 68 87 68 / 80 70 5 5 5  
DENTON 71 89 67 90 69 / 80 50 10 5 0  
MCKINNEY 71 88 69 90 69 / 70 50 5 5 5  
DALLAS 75 88 73 91 72 / 70 60 20 5 5  
TERRELL 72 86 69 89 70 / 80 60 20 5 5  
CORSICANA 75 87 71 90 71 / 90 80 30 10 5  
TEMPLE 73 88 71 91 71 / 80 80 30 20 5  
MINERAL WELLS 70 87 66 89 67 / 70 60 5 5 5  
 

 
   
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ094-095-104>107-  
118>123-133>135-145>148-158>162-174-175.  
 

 
 

 
 
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