445
FXUS64 KFWD 201110
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
610 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 TODAY BEFORE COMING TO AN END THIS
EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
ARE POSSIBLE.
- HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL RESUME FROM SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
MAINLY IN NORTH TEXAS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
A SLOW-MOVING UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT NEW
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND EAST
OF I-35 EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT ~12 HOURS, WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION OCCURRING EAST OF
I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-20. ANY PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE
CAPABLE OF RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
OUTFLOWS COULD RESULT IN A NORTHWESTWARD EXPANSION OF ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAYTIME, AND LOW POPS WILL BE
INDICATED AS FAR NORTHWEST AS THE METROPLEX DURING THE AFTERNOON
PERIOD. MOST PRECIP WILL BE WINDING DOWN BY EARLY EVENING AS THE
TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD, WHILE WEAK UPPER
RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE GRADUALLY TAKES ITS PLACE. THE PRESENCE OF
SOME CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL AID IN HOLDING
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
TODAY, ALTHOUGH IT STILL WILL BE SEASONABLY HOT AND MUGGY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 90 AND HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND
103.
ANOTHER FORECAST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT, AND THIS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY NEAR AND WEST OF I-35
WHERE THE CIRRUS CANOPY HAS CLEARED, WHILE LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS
AND FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
TO THE DEWPOINT. WE'LL CARRY A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG WEST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT AND EXTENT.
BY SUNDAY, MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL HAVE EXITED
THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONLY SLIM AND UNMENTIONABLE 10% POPS
REMAINING ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES DURING THE DAYTIME.
PORTIONS OF THE CWA ARE LIKELY TO MAKE A RETURN TO 105+ HEAT INDEX
VALUES, AND A HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST
PART OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST EXTENT OF THESE HEAT INDICES, AND SOME GUIDANCE IS
ALSO INDICATING A POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAYTIME WHICH OFFERS SOME BUST POTENTIAL FOR HEAT
HEADLINES. FOR THIS REASON, WE'LL HOLD OFF ON A PRODUCT ISSUANCE
AT THIS TIME WITH TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE SPATIAL EXTENT.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A FAIRLY STOUT SOUTHERLY BREEZE THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAYTIME, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 35 MPH. THIS WILL ADD SOME MODEST RELIEF TO WHAT WILL
OTHERWISE BE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID SUMMER AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RECOVERS AND ANOTHER FRONTAL ZONE MAKES ITS WAY
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT, OUR FOCUS WILL BE ON
UPSTREAM MCS ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG THIS STATIONARY BOUNDARY
IN OKLAHOMA WHICH MAY ATTEMPT TO DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS. IN FACT, THIS PARTICULAR SETUP WILL EXIST ESSENTIALLY
ON A DAILY BASIS THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF NEXT WEEK, AND POPS WILL
BE INDICATED MAINLY NEAR/NORTH OF I-20 JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. SINCE THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE DRIVEN ON
THE MESOSCALE, ITS NOT FEASIBLE TO PIN DOWN WHICH DAY MAY HAVE A
HIGHER CHANCE THAN ANOTHER FOR AN MCS INTRUSION AT THIS TIME
RANGE. EVEN IF THESE COMPLEXES THEMSELVES DISSIPATE PRIOR TO
CROSSING THE RED RIVER, RESIDUAL NEARBY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY
SERVE AS FOCI FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT IN PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS DURING
PEAK HEATING HOURS. AREAS THAT ARE UNAFFECTED BY CONVECTION ARE
LIKELY TO SEE A RETURN TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK, AS DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S COMBINE FOR 105+ HEAT INDEX VALUES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
PATCHY IFR CIGS ARE BEGINNING TO FILL IN ACROSS D10 AS OF 11Z
WHICH WILL INTERMITTENTLY IMPACT THE AIRPORTS FOR THE NEXT 2-3
HOURS. WE'LL CARRY PREVAILING MVFR CIGS WITH A TEMPO FOR IFR
HEIGHTS THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF THE TAF PERIOD. CURRENT
SHRA/TS ACTIVITY NEAR WACO MAY CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHWARD ALONG
A CONSOLIDATING OUTFLOW THIS MORNING, AND THIS FEATURE MAY RESULT
IN NEW DEVELOPMENT WITHIN D10 LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS POTENTIAL AND THE TIMING REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN,
AND WE'LL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BRIEF VCTS FOR METROPLEX
AIRPORTS AROUND AND AFTER MIDDAY WHEN THE POTENTIAL SEEMS HIGHEST.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH VFR
AND SOUTH WINDS PREVAILING INTO TONIGHT. ANOTHER MVFR STRATUS
INTRUSION IS LIKELY FOR SUNDAY MORNING WHICH HAS BEEN ADVERTISED
AT THE END OF THE VALID FORECAST PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 89 76 95 79 / 20 10 0 0
WACO 89 76 93 78 / 60 10 0 0
PARIS 87 74 90 77 / 30 20 0 40
DENTON 89 75 94 79 / 20 10 0 10
MCKINNEY 89 75 93 78 / 20 10 0 20
DALLAS 89 76 94 79 / 30 10 0 0
TERRELL 89 74 92 77 / 40 10 0 0
CORSICANA 88 75 92 78 / 60 20 0 0
TEMPLE 88 75 92 78 / 50 10 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 88 74 95 78 / 20 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...STALLEY
LONG TERM....STALLEY
AVIATION...STALLEY
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