659
FXUS64 KFWD 190612
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
112 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO EXCEED 100 DEGREES FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORY
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE INTO NEXT WEEK.
- THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY MAY CONTRIBUTE
TO INCREASED WILDFIRE STARTS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
ANOTHER HOT AND DRY AFTERNOON IS IN STORE WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
OR ABOVE 105 ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS, AND FROM ABOUT 102-105
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORY
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS, RESPECTIVELY, AND NO
ADJUSTMENTS TO THEIR CONFIGURATIONS WERE NECESSARY THROUGH TODAY.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT WESTWARD WHILE
AMPLIFYING LATER TODAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS RATHER MINOR PATTERN
SHIFT WILL DO LITTLE TO BRING ANY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT, OTHER
THAN PERHAPS SHAVE A COUPLE DEGREES OFF OF HIGHS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORKWEEK. THE RESULTANT NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO ADVANCE TOWARDS
PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AND THIS FEATURE
COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WE'LL ADVERTISE A
SLIM 20% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, AND THESE WILL BE THE ONLY RAIN CHANCES
SHOWN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH LOW HUMIDITY
AND EXCEPTIONALLY HOT AFTERNOONS, ADDITIONAL GRASS FIRE ACTIVITY
IS ALSO LIKELY, BUT MODEST WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVENT
THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT FROM REACHING ELEVATED LEVELS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
EXCESSIVELY HOT AND PREDOMINANTLY RAIN-FREE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS SUITE OF
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE A WET OUTLIER FOR FRIDAY, INITIATING
CONVECTION ALONG THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH THAT WILL HAVE
DRIFTED INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE WORKWEEK. WHILE ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, THE CHANCES FOR THIS SCENARIO
TO MATERIALIZE ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT MORE THAN SILENT 10% STORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL
STILL REMAIN DISPLACED WEST OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AND
THIS MAY KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY TO HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS OF
103-105 WITH SIMILAR HEAT INDICES. HOWEVER, AN EASTWARD EXPANSION
OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO OCCUR FROM SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, AND
THIS SHOULD ALLOW MORE WIDESPREAD READINGS OF 105 OR HIGHER TO
RESUME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND
AROUND 10 KT OR LESS. THERE WILL BE A SMALL INCREASE IN CIRRUS
THROUGH THE DAYTIME TODAY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 106 82 105 82 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 104 79 102 78 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 105 80 104 80 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 105 80 105 80 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 105 80 104 80 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 106 82 106 82 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 105 79 104 79 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 104 79 102 78 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 102 77 102 76 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 107 77 106 77 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>134.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ135-141>148-
156>162-174-175.
SHORT TERM...STALLEY
LONG TERM....STALLEY
AVIATION...STALLEY
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