538
FXUS64 KFWD 101055
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
555 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH COOL
NIGHTS AND WARM AFTERNOONS.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO PARTS OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY,
WITH BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK, BRINGING AN END TO
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
WARM AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY BENEATH AN ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE, WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS NEARING THE 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. CLEAR SKIES, CALM/LIGHT WINDS,
AND THE DRY AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S, FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWING AS HIGHS REACH THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY WHILE LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS, ALLOWING LIGHT WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE
MORNING. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE
BEGINNING OF A RETURN FLOW REGIME AND SHOULD KEEP OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
THE PRIMARY STORY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
WHILE AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A DEEPENING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL
PROMOTE LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY
WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS POSITIONED NEAR THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL STRENGTHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO BEGIN
TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD, WHILE INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DRAWS PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
DESPITE THE INCREASING MOISTURE, DOWNSTREAM RIDGING AND A GENERAL
LACK OF FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD KEEP NEARLY ALL OF THE REGION
DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT ACROSS THE BRAZOS VALLEY AS DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES EARLY IN
THE WEEK.
THE COMBINATION OF ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGING AND WARM ADVECTION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AROUND 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN PROGRESSIVELY
WARMER NIGHTS, WITH MORNING LOWS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 70S BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR MID-OCTOBER,
BUT IT WILL TAKE THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER FORCING LATER IN THE
WEEK TO MAKE MUCH USE OF IT.
OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL ADVANCE
OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS AND TOWARD THE PLAINS DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BEGIN INCREASING WEDNESDAY
AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS
ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIALLY DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY,
ALTHOUGH THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES.
THERE ARE STILL MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AS WELL AS THE POSITION OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INITIALLY LOCATED TO OUR NORTH. THESE DETAILS
WILL DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY, MOISTURE,
AND FORCING OVERLAP. REGARDLESS, THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY. WITH
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
COULD ALSO SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND NEAR THE RED RIVER WHERE THE
BETTER SHEAR AND FORCING MAY RESIDE. CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW AT
THIS RANGE TO GET MORE SPECIFIC REGARDING ANY SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD EVENTUALLY SWEEP
THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS LATE IN THE WEEK, ALTHOUGH
FRONTAL TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN. CONFIDENCE IS CONSIDERABLY
HIGHER THAT THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE THAN IN EXACTLY WHEN IT WILL DO
SO. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW, BRINGING AN END TO THE
CURRENT STRETCH OF UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING.
WINDS WILL START OUT CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING
BEFORE SETTLING OUT OF THE SOUTH BY 14-16Z WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
TO AROUND 5-10 KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 91 68 91 72 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 90 66 91 69 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 89 64 90 66 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 91 64 92 70 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 89 65 91 68 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 91 69 92 71 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 90 65 91 67 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 90 66 91 67 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 92 65 92 69 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 91 62 91 68 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12
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