878
FXUS64 KFWD 141813
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
113 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION, UPDATE LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THE REST
OF THE WEEK.
- MORE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS WELL
IN THE 90S AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
A SOMEWHAT STAGNANT AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER
TEXAS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS A RESULT, MULTIPLE DAYS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST BUT SPECIFICS
REGARDING SPATIAL COVERAGE AND THE LOCATION OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES THAT ARE DIFFICULT
TO FORECAST WITH ANY RELIABLE ACCURACY.
STARTING WITH TODAY...AN MCV IS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE
BRAZOS VALLEY. MEAN FLOW IN THE 500-700 MB LEVEL SHOULD DRAW
THIS FEATURE WEST/NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE EXPECT A RATHER EXPANSIVE BLANKET OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL TO PERSIST NEAR THIS MCV WITH POCKETS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WHERE SMALLER-SCALE
BOUNDARIES INTERACT WITH THE MCV. AT THE SAME TIME, A BROKEN LINE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ADVANCE OUT OF CENTRAL TEXAS AND INTO
NORTH TEXAS. AHEAD OF THIS LINE, FORECAST AND AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY IF ANY REMNANT BOUNDARIES
HELP NUDGE PARCELS UPWARD. NOTABLY, WE ARE STARTING TO SEE AN
INCREASE OF CONVECTIVE ATTEMPTS JUST SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX THAT,
OUTSIDE OF SOME MODEST DRY-AIR ENTRAINMENT, SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM
DEVELOPING INTO ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WE EXPECT THESE STORMS TO BE MORE HIT OR
MISS, WITH COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DEVELOPING NEW STORMS
ACROSS THE REGION.
THE MAIN THREAT TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS IS FLASH FLOODING SINCE
A VERY TROPICAL-LIKE (WARM AND MOISTURE-RICH) ENVIRONMENT IS
SUPPORTING VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES AND HEAVY RAIN. FURTHER
NORTH, THE HIT OR MISS NATURE OF THE PRECIP WILL LOWER THE
FLOODING THREAT, BUT INCREASE THE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WIND (GUSTS
TO 35-40 MPH) THREATS.
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WILL CONTRACT TOWARD THE MCV OVER WESTERN
CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE SYNOPTIC MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE HILL COUNTRY
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR PARTS OF WESTERN CENTRAL TEXAS, BUT A LOWER
THREAT OF LIGHTNING WILL SUBSEQUENTLY LOWER THE FLOOD THREAT IN
OUR FORECAST AREA. THE MCV MAY WASH OUT AND GET ABSORBED INTO THE
MEAN FLOW LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING, BUT THE SYNOPTIC LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER TEXAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH
TEXAS, LIKELY ADVANCING NORTH ALONG SOME KIND OF COLD POOL OR
BOUNDARY. IT IS TOO SOON TO KNOW IF THERE WILL BE ANOTHER MCV WILL
DEVELOP IN OUR AREA, BUT IF ONE DOES DEVELOP, IT WILL LOCALLY
INCREASE THE POPS AND FLOOD RISK.
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER THAN THAT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE WEST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LOCALLY. THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH AFTERNOON THAT CONTRACT TOWARD THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
OVERNIGHT. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED LAST NIGHT STILL
CAPTURES THE OVERALL TRENDS.
BONNETTE
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
..THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE SITUATION OVER CENTRAL TEXAS CURRENTLY
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS
WILL ALLOW STRONGER SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE TO WORK INTO THE
REGION AND BEGIN TO INHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT. WHILE ISOLATED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD (ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING), THESE PROBABILITIES (30-40% CHANCE) WILL LARGELY REMAIN
ALONG AND WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 281 AND DECREASE WITH EASTWARD
EXTENT. NONETHELESS, A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE
RULED OUT ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR (10-20% CHANCE) BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AS CLOUD AND STORM COVERAGE DECREASE, TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE
ON THE RISE. HIGHS WILL STILL LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN
THE UPPER-80S AND LOWER-90S (COLDER WITH WESTWARD EXTENT IN TANDEM
WITH THE INCREASE IN RAIN/CLOUD COVER).
..THIS WEEKEND
BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, HEIGHT RISES AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURN TO
THE REGION BRINGING MORE TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER FOR THE AREA.
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 90S
DURING THE DAY. NIGHTS WILL AGAIN BE WARM AND HUMID WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID AND UPPER-70S.
DARRAH
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
WE'RE WATCHING A BAND OF TOWERING CUMULUS OVER SOUTHERN D10 THAT
WILL PRODUCE AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR,
WE'VE SEEN A COUPLE FAILED CONVECTIVE ATTEMPTS BUT WE EXPECT AT
LEAST ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER D10 BETWEEN ~19-21Z. THE
TIMING FOR ON-STATION STORMS IN D10 (21-23Z) MAY HAVE TO BE
ADJUSTED UP AN HOUR OR TWO IF THE CURRENT TRENDS SOUTH OF OUR
TAF SITES CONTINUE. HOWEVER, IF THE TOWERING CUMULUS WEAKENS
WITHOUT PRODUCING ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS (~40% CHANCE), THEN OUR
ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWARD ADVANCING LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS THAT WILL ARRIVE TO THE D10 TERMINALS AROUND 22Z.
EITHER WAY, STORM COVERAGE WITHIN D10 SHOULD BE SCATTERED WITH
RAPID VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN, AND GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS. THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
THIS EVENING, GIVING WAY TO VFR AND SOUTH FLOW TONIGHT.
AT ACT...WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE AT ACT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. PRECIP SHOULD
EVENTUALLY COME TO AN END BETWEEN 22-00Z WITH VFR AND SOUTH FLOW
PREVAILING TONIGHT. WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MVFR AND IFR STRATUS
RETURNING TOMORROW MORNING, BUT WE DON'T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO INCLUDE ANYTHING WORSE THAN BKN025 AT THIS TIME.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH
INTO THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT OUR CONFIDENCE OF TIMING AND
LIGHTNING POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANYTHING OTHER THAN
VCSH IN THE EXTENDED HOURS OF DFW'S TAF.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 87 73 90 74 / 40 30 50 30
WACO 83 71 87 72 / 90 30 50 30
PARIS 87 71 87 71 / 20 20 50 20
DENTON 88 71 90 72 / 30 20 40 20
MCKINNEY 86 72 89 73 / 30 20 50 20
DALLAS 87 74 90 75 / 40 30 50 30
TERRELL 86 71 89 72 / 40 20 50 20
CORSICANA 85 72 88 73 / 70 20 50 20
TEMPLE 82 71 86 71 / 90 40 60 40
MINERAL WELLS 85 69 88 70 / 50 30 40 30
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ142-143-156>160-
174-175.
SHORT TERM...BONNETTE
LONG TERM....BONNETTE
AVIATION...BONNETTE
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