229
FXUS64 KFWD 230700
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
200 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WITH GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS
POSSIBLE.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN MAY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
TODAY'S FORECAST LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S, WITH THE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE STALLED BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER CENTRAL TX
AND STRONG RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SERVING AS A FOCAL POINT FOR
ONGOING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THIS MORNING'S
CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF AFTER SUNRISE, CONTINUED MOISTURE
ADVECTION ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROMOTE
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX INTO THE BIG COUNTRY AREA. WHILE
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW, GUSTY WINDS, BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORM THAT CAN
FORM. TEMPERATURES OVERALL REMAIN SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. DAYTIME MIXING WILL HOPEFULLY BRING
SOME RELIEF IN THE FORM OF HEAT INDICES ONLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
OUR ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES, RATHER THAN THE OPPRESSIVE 105+ THAT
HAS BEEN THE NORM THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
ANY ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL QUICKLY DIE
OFF AFTER SUNSET, AS THE LINGERING BOUNDARY DISSIPATES AND THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVERHEAD INTENSIFIES. THURSDAY'S HIGHS WILL
BE RINSE AND REPEAT, WITH MID TO UPPER 90S REGION WIDE. WITH THE
CONTINUED BUILDING IN OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR, ANY RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BE NEGLIGIBLE FOR THURSDAY AND ONWARD.
ON A FUN SIDE NOTE, YESTERDAY AT 7:05 PM CT MARKED THE OFFICIAL
START OF ASTRONOMICAL FALL FOR THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE, WHERE
NIGHTS OFFICIALLY BEGIN GETTING LONGER THAN OUR DAYS! NOW IF ONLY
WE COULD GET A GOOD COLD FRONT, THEN IT TRULY WOULD BE PUMPKIN
SPICE LATTE SEASON...
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO INFILTRATE WITHIN LOW-LEVEL
EAST/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S. WITH ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS STILL PRESENT
OVERHEAD, THE RESULTANT SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE AREA RAIN-FREE TO
END THE WORKWEEK WHILE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN HEADING
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, AS A COUPLE OF PROGRESSIVE CENTRAL PLAINS
SHORTWAVES SHUNT THE RIDGE AXIS SOUTHWARD. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
RENEWED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE CWA
ON SATURDAY, BUT WEAK TRAILING ASCENT COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTH TEXAS BY SUNDAY. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL ALSO BEGIN TO RECOVER DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
DUE TO STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A MORE FAVORABLE
FETCH FROM THE GULF.
RECENT GUIDANCE HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY CONSISTENT REGRADING A
STRONGER MIDWEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONTAL
INTRUSION DURING THE DAY 6-8 TIME PERIOD AS WE APPROACH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY END UP BEING THE FIRST HALFWAY DECENT FALL
COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON, WHICH COULD OFFER SOME RAIN CHANCES WHILE
DROPPING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 147 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WHILE LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY LATER THIS MORNING. ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAYTIME
TODAY WITH COVERAGE OF ABOUT 10%, ALTHOUGH MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF THE TAF SITES. NO PRECIPITATION MENTION
IS WARRANTED AT THIS JUNCTURE WITH SUCH A LOW PROBABILITY OF
OCCURRENCE AT THE AIRPORTS. SKY COVER WILL CONSIST OF SOME DAYTIME
CUMULUS ALONG WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER
ARRIVING FROM WEST TEXAS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 96 76 95 72 / 10 0 0 0
WACO 96 75 97 71 / 20 10 0 0
PARIS 94 67 91 64 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 96 73 94 69 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 96 71 94 67 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 97 76 95 72 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 97 72 95 67 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 97 74 95 68 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 98 74 98 72 / 20 20 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 96 72 95 69 / 20 10 10 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DAVIS
LONG TERM....STALLEY
AVIATION...STALLEY
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