316
FXUS64 KFWD 131757
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1257 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PRIMARILY A THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY DOWNBURST
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD, BEFORE SEASONABLY HOT AND DRY WEATHER RESUMES BY THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
WEAK DYNAMIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH HAS
COMBINED WITH ANOMALOUSLY RICH MOISTURE TO CREATE SCATTERED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH THIS
ANOMALOUSLY RICH MOISTURE, CHARACTERIZED BY PW VALUES OVER 2 INCHES,
AND WEAK FLOW KEEPING STORM MOTION SLOW, FLASH FLOODING IS THE
PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
ACTIVITY IS A WEAK BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MORE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY
TO THE NORTH. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS WHERE THE
FLOODING THREAT IS HIGHEST.
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING, THOUGH THE
BROAD, WEAK FORCING WILL KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL PICK UP AGAIN TUESDAY, STILL FOCUSED
PRIMARILY SOUTH OF I-20, WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF 20-30% TO
THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THIS
PERIOD, THANKS TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND THE PRESENCE OF RAIN
COOLED AIR. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ONLY TO REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
THE BROAD, WEAK ASCENT AND RICH MOISTURE STICKS AROUND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN
THE FORECAST. HOWEVER, THE BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERLY
WAVE WILL TRACK SOUTHWEST, LEADING TO MUCH MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
PATTERN. BY THURSDAY, RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN, RESULTING IN A
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN DURING
THIS PERIOD AS SEASONABLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN. HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED, WITH READINGS
IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
THE EARLIER STORMS OVER D10 HAVE ALLOWED FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE MAIN TERMINALS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IT WILL NOT
TAKE MUCH ENERGY TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL STORMS LATER TODAY. WE'RE
MAINLY CONCERNED ABOUT STORMS MOVING INTO D10 FROM THE N OR NE
AFTER 20-21Z. THERE IS ALSO A CONCERN THAT THE EARLIER STORMS HAVE
STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE SO MUCH THAT ALL CONVECTIVE ATTEMPTS
WITHIN D10 WILL BE SQUASHED ALL DAY. UNFORTUNATELY, WE WON'T GET
A GOOD READ ON THAT UNTIL STORMS TRY TO GET GOING. UNTIL THEN, WE
HAVE MAINTAINED VCTS WITH A TS TEMPO AT ALL D10 LOCATIONS. MOST
OF THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN/MOVE INTO CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. FOR ACT...STORMS ARE MUCH CLOSER TO THE TERMINAL, BUT
SIMILARLY, THE AIR MIGHT BE JUST STABLE ENOUGH TO KEEP ALL STORMS
TO THE SOUTH OF ACT. WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO
KEEP ALL TS ACTIVITY OFF OF THE TERMINAL, SO WE MAINTAINED VCTS
WITH A SHORT TS TEMPO, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS
CLOSE.
LOW MFVR TO HIGH IFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW MORNING. THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE OF IFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN THE FEW HOURS STRADDLING SUNRISE, BUT THAT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUDING IN THE TAFS
ATTM.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TOMORROW. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OVER CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE AFTERNOON (BEYOND
THE 24-HOUR TAF WINDOW) AND SOUTH OF D10.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 88 73 91 73 / 60 20 30 20
WACO 89 74 87 71 / 60 30 70 40
PARIS 87 71 90 70 / 40 10 20 10
DENTON 88 72 91 70 / 50 10 20 10
MCKINNEY 85 72 92 71 / 60 20 20 10
DALLAS 89 74 91 73 / 60 20 30 20
TERRELL 85 72 90 70 / 60 20 30 20
CORSICANA 87 72 89 72 / 70 20 50 30
TEMPLE 88 72 84 71 / 60 40 80 40
MINERAL WELLS 89 72 89 68 / 50 20 30 20
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR TXZ142-143-156>160-174-
175.
SHORT TERM...BEALO
LONG TERM....BEALO
AVIATION...BONNETTE
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