095
FXUS64 KFWD 041844
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
144 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TOMORROW
WITH THE BEST COVERAGE MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. LIGHTNING,
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STORM CHANCES ARE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW, BUT STRONG
STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
RECENT RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS ALREADY
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WE REMAIN IN THIS FAIRLY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE (50-60%) IS STILL EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND THE SOUTHERN ZONES WITH RAIN CHANCES
DECREASING WEST OF I-35 TOWARDS WEST TX. SIMILAR TO WHAT WE'VE
SEEN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LIGHTNING,
GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT, BUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY LINGER INTO
TONIGHT, MAINLY EAST OF I-34 TOWARDS EAST TX.
FRIDAY: WE WILL SEE SLIGHTLY BETTER LIFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
EJECTS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
INTO A MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE DAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE THE OVERALL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW, WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS, SMALL
HAIL, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN ADDITION TO THE LIGHTNING THREAT. AN
ISOLATED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING CAN'T BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY IF
THE SAME AREAS SEE MORE THAN ONE ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN. RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST COVERAGE
ACROSS CENTRAL TX.
OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN AND CLOUDS, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE 80S TODAY AND TOMORROW.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
AS WE BEEN HIGHLIGHTING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, AN UNSETTLED
WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR US WITH MULTIPLE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SPREADING
DECENT LARGE SCALE LIFT FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SCATTERED STORMS.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER ACROSS THE REGION,
IS WHEN WE WILL SEE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION. AT
THIS TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TX. THIS
DOESN'T MEAN ALL OF US WILL SEE RAIN ALL DAY, BUT PLAN FOR
OCCASIONAL INTERRUPTIONS OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AS LIGHTNING WILL
BE A THREAT. ADDITIONALLY, POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE FORECAST
BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY. AVERAGE
RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 0.5-2.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3" POSSIBLE. DETAILS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
REFINED AS NEW DATA ARRIVES. WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES,
TEMPERATURES WON'T BE AS WARM AS OUR TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER DAY.
HIGHS MAY STAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES THROUGH SUNDAY.
LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY, MAINLY ACROSS EAST TX.
HOWEVER, WE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION INTO A MORE STABLE WEATHER
PATTERN AS AN UPPER RIDGE SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THAT,
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY MID-WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
CONCERNS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. MVFR CLOUDS WILL RETURN AFTER 08-09Z
TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING FRIDAY. THERE'S A
DECENT CHANCE SOME OF THE SITES WILL SEE IFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY
MORNING BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY MID MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 87 72 86 72 / 30 20 30 50
WACO 86 71 84 71 / 30 20 30 60
PARIS 83 70 83 70 / 50 30 30 30
DENTON 87 71 86 71 / 20 10 20 50
MCKINNEY 86 71 85 71 / 30 20 30 40
DALLAS 88 72 87 72 / 30 20 30 50
TERRELL 86 70 85 71 / 40 30 30 40
CORSICANA 86 72 87 73 / 50 30 30 40
TEMPLE 86 71 85 71 / 40 30 30 60
MINERAL WELLS 87 70 85 69 / 20 10 30 60
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SANCHEZ
LONG TERM....SANCHEZ
AVIATION...SANCHEZ
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