166
FXUS64 KFWD 221126
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
526 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS (30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE) WILL DEVELOP
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
- MORE SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS UPCOMING WORK WEEK, WITH
PLENTY OF SUN AND HIGHS IN THE 70S.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
UPDATE:
TEMPERATURES ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF U.S. 84 HAVE HELD STEADY
BETWEEN 32 AND 34 DEGREES ALL NIGHT. WITH TEMPERATURES NOT
EXPECTED TO DROP ANY FURTHER, IT LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS WERE A
COUPLE DEGREES TOO WARM FOR ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN TO DEVELOP. OTHERWISE, THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION STILL
HOLDS.
DARRAH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
UPPER-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW TROUGHING OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS, WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES STRETCHING
FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE
LATTER OF THESE DISTURBANCES IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVE OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS OVER
THE COURSE OF THIS WEEKEND. IN ADVANCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE, STRONG
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ELEVATED MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH. AS SUCH, CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE AREA, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THIS WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES FAIRLY STEADY TONIGHT, RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK. NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20, CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST. SKIES FROM YOUNG TO GRAYSON COUNTY HAVE ALREADY
CLEARED, WITH OBSERVED TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE LOW AND
MID-20S.
THE PRIMARY DISTURBANCE OUT WEST IS EXPECTED TO EJECT INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY EVENING. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SYSTEM AND CONTINUED ADVECTION OF MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTH WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES (30 TO 50 PERCENT) LOOK TO
REMAIN EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE U.S. 84
CORRIDOR WHERE MORE MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. LOWER
RAIN CHANCES (15 TO 25 PERCENT) EXTEND MUCH FURTHER NORTH INTO THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. EVEN THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
MUCH LOWER IN THIS AREA, STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY BE ENOUGH
TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE, ALLOWING ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTH OF INTERSTATE
20, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP INTO THE LOW AND MID-30S HEADING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AS SUCH, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
OCCASIONAL FLURRIES DURING THIS TIME FRAME, PRIMARILY BETWEEN
INTERSTATE 20 AND U.S. 380.
BY SUNDAY, THE WEEKEND SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE MAKING ITS
WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH NVA AND
HIGHER HEIGHTS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION FROM UPSTREAM BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM, CLOUD COVER SHOULD CLEAR BY THE AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 50S EAST OF INTERSTATE 35, AND
LOWER 60S WEST OF INTERSTATE 35.
DARRAH
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 338 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025/
/SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND/
IF YOU'RE TIRED OF THE COLD, YOU'RE IN LUCK! WARMER WEATHER IS
JUST ON THE HORIZON. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS EACH DAY NEXT WEEK, WITH COOL MORNINGS
IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. A COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO ARRIVE DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT A SIGNIFICANT COOL-DOWN DOES NOT
APPEAR LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT AT THIS TIME. WE ARE MONITORING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN WITH THE COLD FRONT,
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE THERE IS A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD
THAT MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE SUFFICIENT PRIOR TO THE FRONT'S
ARRIVAL. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN RAIN-FREE
THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
LOOKING AHEAD TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD, WARM WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH MORE NOTABLE MOISTURE RETURN
EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK/EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. THERE IS DECENT
CONSENSUS AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN
SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND, WHICH MAY ENCOMPASS A BROADER PORTION OF
THE CWA AS COMPARED TO THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM. STAY TUNED, AND ENJOY
THE WARMER WEATHER THIS WEEK!
BARNES
AVIATION
/NEW/
/12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
VFR STRATUS WITH CEILINGS OF 5 TO 6 KFT WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD SOUTH OF I-20, SCATTERING OUT AT ALL
TAF SITES IN THE DFW METROPLEX BY THE START OF THIS TAF'S FORECAST
PERIOD. CEILINGS AT KACT WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY, WITH MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED BY 07Z. THERE IS SOME SIGNAL
FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS BEFORE THIS, BUT HAVE KEPT OUT OF
THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS FOR NOW, AND OPTED FOR A FM GROUP
CONTAINING A SCT025 LAYER INSTEAD BETWEEN 20Z AND 07Z. DEPENDING
ON TRENDS, MAY NEED TO ADJUST THE START TIME OF MVFR CIGS IN LATER
TAF ISSUANCES.
DARRAH
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 49 36 61 40 72 / 0 20 10 0 0
WACO 46 40 61 40 72 / 20 20 10 0 0
PARIS 48 31 56 36 68 / 0 10 10 0 0
DENTON 50 32 61 37 72 / 0 10 10 0 0
MCKINNEY 49 33 59 38 71 / 0 20 10 0 0
DALLAS 50 38 61 41 72 / 5 20 10 0 0
TERRELL 48 35 59 38 71 / 10 20 20 0 0
CORSICANA 48 40 59 40 71 / 10 20 20 0 0
TEMPLE 45 37 61 38 73 / 20 30 10 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 53 34 65 37 79 / 0 20 10 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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