073
FXUS64 KFWD 070647
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
147 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH A FEW SEVERE
DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH LOW STORM CHANCES RETURNING NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
EARLIER CONVECTION HAS LARGELY DIED OFF ACROSS THE REGION BUT A
FEW STORMS STILL PERSIST MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES
WHERE AN AXIS OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR RESIDES WITHIN AN UNCAPPED
BOUNDARY LAYER. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY WANING PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT TIED TO A SLOW MOVING
UPPER TROUGH SPREADS THROUGH THE ARKLATEX. THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WILL AGAIN FEATURE PWS NEAR 2 INCHES WITH
MLCAPE >2000J/KG AND SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE FOR A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH SEVERE WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN
THREAT. MID LEVEL WINDS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK, ALTHOUGH STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SMALL CLUSTERS OF STORMS WHICH COULD RESULT
IN A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ANY SEMI
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF STORMS WOULD HAVE A GREATER THREAT FOR
SEVERE WINDS DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, STORM MOTIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE SLOW AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY ANY ACTIVITY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
STORMS SHOULD COINCIDE WITH THE AXIS OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR WHICH
WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE METROPLEX
SOUTHEAST INTO EAST TEXAS. WE'LL HAVE 30-50% POPS IN THIS AREA
WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE
EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS BUT
A GRADUAL DOWNWARD TREND IN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT.
DUNN
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
BY WEDNESDAY, STRONGER MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND BACK
TO THE EAST AND LOW LEVEL FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEEPER MIXING AND WE SHOULD
SEE DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WEST OF I-35.
INCREASING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL REALLY BEING TO INHIBIT
STORM DEVELOPMENT AND OUR ONLY CHANCES FOR STORMS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL LIKELY BE IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE BETTER MOISTURE
WILL LINGER. WE'LL ALSO SEE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY TICK UPWARD
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MOST AREAS NEAR 100 DEGREES BY
THURSDAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL CLIMB TO 597DM OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY LATE FRIDAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD DURING THIS
TIME AND SHOULD BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO
OUR NORTH ON SATURDAY. AS THIS WEAK TROUGHING WORKS AROUND THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER RIDGING EXPANDING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, WE'LL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN STORM CHANCES AGAIN THIS
WEEKEND MAINLY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A CORRESPONDING
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO LIKELY RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DUNN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
VFR WILL LARGELY PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TODAY OUTSIDE OF
ANY CONVECTIVE AREAS. SOUTH WINDS 10 KT OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, SCATTERED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING AND WILL FAVOR
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE D10 AIRSPACE AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
WE'LL HAVE A VCTS FROM 22Z THROUGH 01Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
ACTIVITY. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AND OUTFLOW WINDS WILL LIKELY
BE IMPACTFUL WITH ANY ACTIVITY. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
AFTER 01Z WITH SOUTH WINDS PREVAILING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 98 77 99 79 / 20 20 10 0
WACO 97 76 97 77 / 10 10 0 0
PARIS 92 72 93 75 / 20 10 10 0
DENTON 97 75 98 77 / 20 20 0 0
MCKINNEY 95 74 98 77 / 20 20 10 0
DALLAS 99 78 99 81 / 30 20 10 0
TERRELL 97 74 96 77 / 30 20 10 0
CORSICANA 98 75 97 76 / 30 20 0 0
TEMPLE 97 75 97 74 / 10 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 96 74 99 74 / 10 10 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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