901
FXUS64 KFWD 270039
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
639 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2021
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE MAIN ISSUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ARE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, FOLLOWED BY A
LOW-END RISK FOR STORMS LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
A SURFACE WARM FRONT IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA AT THE
PRESENT TIME, WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
AS IT DOES, THE RESULTANT WARM/MOIST ADVECTION SHOULD LEAD TO A
WIDE EXPANSE OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SOME FOG COULD BECOME DENSE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, AND AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES
SHOULD BE NEAR AND WEST OF I-35 CORRIDOR. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED LATER THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT, BUT WE'LL HOLD OFF
UNTIL WE START SEEING SOME TRENDS DEVELOP OR UNTIL THERE IS MORE
CONFIDENCE IN GUIDANCE. BY DAYBREAK, SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
SHOULD ALSO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH UP THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND
INTO EAST TEXAS. WE'LL CARRY SOME FAIRLY HIGH POPS THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS SINCE THERE IS A DECENT
LIKELIHOOD OF PICKING UP MEASURABLE RAIN, ALTHOUGH ACTUAL RAIN
AMOUNTS FROM THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE LIGHT (ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS).
BY LATE AFTERNOON, INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND STEEPENING
MID-LEVEL LASE RATES SHOULD COINCIDE IN FAR NORTH TEXAS, MAINLY
NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 380 CORRIDOR. THIS COULD SUPPORT A FEW
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL VERY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
OR INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER, THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD BE GREATLY
LIMITED BY THE PRESENCE OF VERY LITTLE MUCAPE. AT THIS POINT,
WOULD BE PRETTY SURPRISED IF ANY CONVECTION IN THIS AREA COULD
BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE, BARRING SOME SORT OF DRASTIC CHANGE TO
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FROM THOSE CURRENTLY FORECAST. WE'LL CARRY
A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SINCE THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE OFF-
AND-ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH PERHAPS SOME DRY TIME HEADING
INTO THE EVENING. THE GREATER RISK FOR STRONG STORMS IN NORTH
TEXAS WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AS
DISCUSSED IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST BELOW.
-STALLEY
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 321 PM CST FRI FEB 26 2021/
/SATURDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND/
SATURDAY NIGHT, LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE GENERALLY FROM THE METROPLEX NORTHEAST. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND PLENTY OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE, ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD
STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SUNDAY MORNING, A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN BORDER
NEAR SUNRISE AND SHOULD ARRIVE IN THE METROPLEX DURING THE MID-
MORNING HOURS. MEANWHILE, SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER BEGINNING LATE MORNING/MIDDAY SUNDAY, PARTICULARLY
SOUTH OF I-20. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS, AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE RATHER LIMITED.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUR SOUTHERNMOST BORDER BY SUNDAY
EVENING. THOUGH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE OVER, RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA. MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COOL DAY BEHIND THE
FRONT, WITH RAINY AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, RAIN
SHOULD GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL
KEEP LOW RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
BARNES
AVIATION
/NEW/
/00Z TAFS/
WIDESPREAD MVFR CURRENTLY PREVAILS, WITH JUST SOME BRIEF SCATTERING
TO VFR OCCURRING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DFW METROPLEX. OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, THESE CIGS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER, ALTHOUGH
A BIT MORE SCATTERING TO VFR COULD OCCUR THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE ARRIVAL OF A WARM FRONT WILL SEND
WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW STRATUS INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WHICH
SHOULD THEN PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT IFR
VISIBILITIES AND CIGS BY TOMORROW MORNING WITH SOME LIFR LIKELY AT
TIMES. SOME FOG COULD BECOME DENSE, AND THIS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN 12-17Z AT ALL AIRPORTS. LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES BEGINNING IN THE MORNING, WITH A
FEW SHOWERS PRESENT INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME MODEST IMPROVEMENTS
TO VIS/CIGS MAY OCCUR AROUND MIDDAY OR LATER, BUT IFR SHOULD STILL
PREVAIL ALL THE WAY INTO THE EVENING. NO TSRA IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
-STALLEY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 52 69 58 64 43 / 10 60 20 60 30
WACO 55 74 62 70 47 / 10 30 10 70 60
PARIS 47 65 58 64 43 / 10 70 50 70 40
DENTON 48 68 54 61 41 / 5 60 20 50 30
MCKINNEY 48 68 57 63 43 / 10 70 30 60 30
DALLAS 53 71 61 66 45 / 10 60 20 60 40
TERRELL 50 71 60 67 47 / 10 60 30 70 40
CORSICANA 54 74 63 70 49 / 10 40 20 80 60
TEMPLE 54 75 61 71 47 / 10 20 10 70 60
MINERAL WELLS 50 70 53 60 42 / 5 40 10 50 30
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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