084
FXUS64 KFWD 170551
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1151 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
STARTS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS UNDERWAY ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS TROUGHING OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S WITH A PLUME OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE. DESPITE THE
CLOUD COVER, WE'LL STILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S TODAY. IN ADDITION, A DRYLINE WILL ENCROACH
ON OUR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE RH VALUES WILL
DROP TO BELOW 30%. A LIMITED GRASS FIRE THREAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THESE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE BREEZY
CONDITIONS. THIS DRYLINE WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL ADVANCE AS FAR EAST AS THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
LOW RH VALUES BETWEEN 15-20% ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES, HOWEVER SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER. AN EXPANDING
GRASS FIRE THREAT IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS FINE FUELS
WILL HAVE HAD PLENTY OF TIME TO DRY OUT AFTER RECENT RAINFALL.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S WITH NO RAINFALL EXPECTED.
DUNN
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, BUT THE MAIN
TRACK OF DISTURBANCES WILL REMAIN DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH. THIS
WILL KEEP OUR REGION BENEATH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND LOW AFTERNOON RH. THURSDAY MAY BE OUR MOST ACTIVE FIRE WEATHER
DAY GIVEN VERY LOW RH VALUES BETWEEN 15-20% ACROSS A GOOD PORTION
OF THE AREA AND STRENGTHENING WESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY AND WILL KNOCK HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S AND ALLOW RH VALUES
TO RECOVER A BIT. A SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE ON SATURDAY AND WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO RAIN CHANCES
OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH A MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPING THINGS
DRY. WE'LL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BETWEEN
FRONTAL PASSAGES, BUT OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VERY
LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DUNN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
VFR PREVAILS BENEATH A BLANKET OF HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT. LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN CENTRAL TX LATER TONIGHT AND SPREAD NORTHEAST THROUGH MID
MORNING TUESDAY. WE'LL CONTINUE WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR CIGS AT
DFW/DAL/GKY BETWEEN 13-16Z, BUT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY
MID/LATE MORNING AS DEEPER MIXING COMMENCES. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY ON TUESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING A BIT TUESDAY NIGHT.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 73 54 76 58 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 73 53 77 60 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 68 50 72 58 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 73 51 77 52 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 72 53 74 57 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 74 54 77 58 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 72 53 74 58 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 74 54 77 61 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 74 52 79 58 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 78 52 83 52 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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