249
FXUS64 KFWD 161815
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
115 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, WITH THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND WEST OF I-35. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN, AND A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO
PRODUCE GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH
COVERAGE OF 20% OR LESS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
- DRIER AND HOTTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING INTO THE 90S AND LOWER-100S.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER WEST TEXAS. AS A RESULT, THE BEST LIFT IS LOCATED
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA, AND SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY (40-50%) IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF
I-35. TO THE EAST, HEIGHTS ARE BEGINNING TO RISE, BRINGING
SUBSIDENCE AND LIMITING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO BELOW 40% AND
DECREASING AS YOU MOVE EASTWARD. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS SUBTLE IMPULSES
ROUNDING THE UPPER LOW TRIGGER REDEVELOPMENT. THE PRIMARY HAZARD
WITH THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING,
ALONG WITH A RISK OF GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS. ACTIVITY SHOULD COME
TO AN END AFTER SUNSET.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT WEST, REACHING THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES FRIDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVERHEAD. THIS WILL
PUSH CHANCES FOR EVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS (15-20%) WELL TO
THE WEST, WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL, EAST,
AND MOST OF NORTH TEXAS. THIS WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, WITH SOME LINGERING MORNING CLOUD COVER AND AMPLE
SURFACE MOISTURE KEEPING FRIDAY'S HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER WESTWARD AND GRADUALLY
FILL, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY.
AS A RESULT, RAIN CHANCES DROP TO NEAR ZERO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WHILE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO CLIMB. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR-NORMAL, THANKS TO A BIT OF
LINGERING CLOUD COVER. BUT BY THE START OF THE COMING WORK WEEK,
TEMPERATURES WILL JUMP INTO THE UPPER-90S TO LOW-100S, WITH HEAT
INDICES OF 100-107 EACH DAY. THIS HEAT WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK, AS LONG-TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS NO HINT OF
THE HIGH SHIFTING AWAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP AROUND THE D10
AIRSPACE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH VCTS INCLUDED THROUGH 01Z. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF STORMS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND
THEREFORE WENT WITH A PROB30 RATHER THAN A TEMPO. ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AFTER 01Z, ALTHOUGH THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A
SECOND PUSH OF SHOWERS OR STORMS LATER THIS EVENING, AFTER 02-03Z.
HOWEVER, WITH THE LIMITED LIGHTNING ACTIVITY SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON,
AND MODEL GUIDANCE REALLY PULLS BACK ON STORM COVERAGE, THERE
WASN'T ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE A LINE IN THE TAF. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CIGS TO
DEVELOP TOMORROW MORNING BETWEEN 12-14Z.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 74 91 76 95 / 20 10 0 0
WACO 74 91 75 92 / 30 10 10 0
PARIS 72 90 74 93 / 10 10 0 0
DENTON 74 91 74 95 / 20 10 0 0
MCKINNEY 75 92 75 94 / 10 10 0 0
DALLAS 76 92 77 96 / 20 10 0 0
TERRELL 74 92 75 94 / 10 10 0 0
CORSICANA 75 93 76 95 / 20 10 0 0
TEMPLE 74 91 74 93 / 40 10 10 0
MINERAL WELLS 71 91 72 93 / 30 10 10 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BEALO
LONG TERM....BEALO
AVIATION...BEALO
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