006
FXUS64 KFWD 152320
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
520 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE WILL BE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
OWING TO DRY AND WINDY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES (15-30%) RETURN TO PORTIONS OF EAST AND CENTRAL
TEXAS MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
TODAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST,
ALLOWING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO BUILD IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-35. THE ADVECTION OF
WARMER CONTINENTAL AIR FROM SOUTHWEST TEXAS UNDER SUNNY SKIES WILL
HELP LOCATIONS IN THIS AREA WARM UP INTO THE UPPER-60S WITH A FEW
SPOTS POTENTIALLY INTO THE LOW 70S. EAST OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS (GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR) WHERE
NORTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL LONGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON, EXPECT A MUCH COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S DESPITE
THE SUNNY SKIES.
TONIGHT, SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH AT THE SURFACE WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, HELPING MODERATE OVERNIGHT LOWS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. TOMORROW MORNING, A COLD FRONT WILL DIVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION USHERING IN A COOLER STRETCH OF
TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE GUSTY WINDS AND
DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE WILL BE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY NORTH OF I-20 AND WEST OF
THE I-35 CORRIDOR. HERE, SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 MPH WILL OVERLAP
RH IN THE 15-20% RANGE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
FRIDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S AND UPPER 20S AS
COLD AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRIDAY
MORNING COLD FRONT.
SATURDAY, A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. STRONG FORCING
FOR ASCENT DOWNSTREAM THE VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD MID AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER ON SATURDAY. SOME
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TRIES TO DEVELOP A BAND OF PRECIPITATION,
VIA A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED LIFT FROM A MESOSCALE BAND OF
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-700 HPA LAYER. WHILE MOST MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS FEATURE, SURFACE PRECIPITATION IS ALMOST
CERTAINLY OVERDONE IN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SCENARIOS OWING TO AN
EXCEPTIONALLY DEEP AND DRY LAYER BENEATH MID AND UPPER-LEVEL
MOISTURE. SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS SATURDAY MORNING WILL
RANGE SOME 20-30 DEGREES CELSIUS, WITH MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTING
THE DEPTH OF THIS SURFACE BASED DRY LAYER ANYWHERE FROM 5,000 TO
10,000 FEET BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. AS SUCH, DESPITE THE STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
MID-LEVEL PACIFIC SOURCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM,
DRY AIR WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY OVERCOME ANY ATTEMPT AT MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE SURFACE, ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE FAST
MOVING NATURE OF THIS DISTURBANCE. NONETHELESS, WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS COMBINED WITH THE ENHANCED LIFT OF THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH FOR SOME SPRINKLES TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE. WHILE SOME
MODEL RUNS DEPICT FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW ACROSS A SMALL SWATH OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS, THIS SCENARIO IS UNREALISTIC GIVEN A
2,000 - 3,000 FOOT DEEP SUB-SATURATED SURFACE BASED LAYER (EVEN IN
MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS LIKE THE GFS) AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S. FOR NOW, GIVEN THE SUBSTANTIAL VARIABILITY BETWEEN MODELS
AND INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS, AND THE VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF ANY
PRECIPITATION EVEN REACHING THE SURFACE, WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY FOR NOW. WILL RE-
EVALUATE ONCE CAMS COME INTO RANGE AS THEY WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE
MESOSCALE FEATURES SUCH AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTOGENETIC BAND
BETTER. REGARDLESS, NO MATTER WHERE YOU ARE IN NORTH OR CENTRAL
TEXAS ON SATURDAY, THE ONLY THING THAT SHOULD BE EXPECTED ARE
CLOUDY SKIES, NORTH WINDS AT 10-15 MPH, AND HIGHS IN THE 40S.
SATURDAY NIGHT MAY VERY WELL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WINTER SO
FAR, AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONS ITSELF DIRECTLY OVER OR
JUST NORTHWEST OF THE DFW METROPLEX. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA, WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DEW POINTS INTO THE
TEENS. THIS SET UP WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG RADIATIVE COOLING
OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO MORNING LOWS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE 20S. A
FEW LOCATIONS IN THE BIG COUNTRY AND NEAR THE RED RIVER MAY DROP
DOWN INTO THE TEENS.
SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP THINGS DRY, AS THERE ARE NO
APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY WILL BE
A BRIEF "WARM UP" (HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID-50S INTO THE
MID-60S) BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA KNOCKING
HIGHS DOWN INTO THE UPPER-40S AND 50S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THERE MAY BE BOUTS OF CLOUDIER SKIES DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS
RESULTING FROM SPEED DIVERGENCE IN THE UPPER-LEVELS. BUT ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL A SHORTWAVE TROUGH KICKS
OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
WHILE THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AROUND THE TIMING, STRENGTH AND
TRAJECTORY OF THIS MID-WEEK STORM SYSTEM, THERE IS A GROWING
CONSENSUS AMONGST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE OF A STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGEST
SIGNAL FOR RAIN IS SOUTH OF I-20 AND EAST OF I-35, THOUGH RECENT
MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT PRECIPITATION POTENTIALLY AS FAR
NORTHWEST AS THE DFW METROPLEX. HOWEVER, DUE TO CONTINUED MODEL
VARIANCE AND GIVEN HOW FAR OUT THIS STORM SYSTEM IS IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST, WILL OPT TO KEEP 20-40% CHANCES FOR RAIN SOUTHEAST OF
DFW ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS (HIGHEST IN THE BRAZOS
VALLEY).
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 518 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS TAF PERIOD AT ALL AIRPORTS WITH
SKC TONIGHT AND SCATTERED CIRRUS ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO
15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 14-16Z BEFORE A FROPA BRINGS STRONG
AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS ON FRIDAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE AND BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 17/00Z.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 59 44 59 35 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 62 44 62 35 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 53 39 57 32 / 0 0 10 0
DENTON 59 38 58 29 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 56 41 58 32 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 59 46 61 37 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 56 41 61 32 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 57 45 64 35 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 62 42 64 33 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 66 41 58 29 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DARRAH
LONG TERM....DARRAH
AVIATION...SHAMBURGER
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