552
FXUS64 KFWD 162324
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
624 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS BETWEEN 99
TO 105 EACH DAY.
- LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THE NEXT 7 DAYS, AND LOW
HUMIDITY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED WILDFIRE ACTIVITY THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
AS THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES WEST ATOP NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS, WE'LL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION-FREE CONDITIONS. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS AS TEMPERATURES RISE
INTO THE 103-104 DEGREE RANGE. RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
DECREASE INTO THE 20S THIS AFTERNOON, HELPING TO KEEP HEAT INDEX
VALUES FAIRLY CLOSE TO ACTUAL TEMPERATURES.
THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ATOP OUR
REGION. SIMILAR TO TODAY, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 103-105 DEGREES. THE HEAT
ADVISORY WILL PERSIST THROUGH TOMORROW WITH EASTERN PARTS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS NOW INCLUDED IN TOMORROW'S HEAT HEADLINES. ALTHOUGH
THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL REMAIN BELOW ELEVATED LEVELS, DRY
FUELS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY STILL LEAD TO A FEW GRASS
FIRES GIVEN AN IGNITION SOURCE. THEREFORE, CONTINUE TO AVOID
ACTIVITIES THAT COULD SPARK A WILDFIRE.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 122 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
EXPERIENCES SOME OF THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OBSERVED THUS FAR
THIS YEAR. HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE IN THE TRIPLE
DIGITS WITH WIDESPREAD 103-104 READINGS.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, WITH THE HOT AND DRY WEATHER AND DRY
VEGETATION, THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A RISK FOR GRASS FIRES
ACROSS THE REGION. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS EACH DAY SHOULD HELP
MITIGATE THE THREAT FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD, HOWEVER, THE RISK OF
INITIAL-ATTACK TYPE FIRE WILL PERSIST.
AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND, SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY, RAIN CHANCES REMAIN BELOW 10% WITH MODELS
CONTINUING TO FAVOR PERSISTING HOT AND DRY WEATHER.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS TAF PERIOD WITH SKC
PREDOMINATING AND WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH 5-10 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR A FEW HOURS ON MONDAY
MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT STALLS NEAR THE RED RIVER, BUT SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS SO DID NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 104 80 104 81 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 101 76 102 77 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 103 77 104 77 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 103 77 105 79 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 103 78 104 79 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 104 81 105 81 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 102 75 105 77 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 102 75 103 78 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 102 74 102 76 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 104 74 104 74 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-146-148.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ144-145-147-
159>162-175.
SHORT TERM...HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ
AVIATION...SHAMBURGER
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