895
FXUS64 KFWD 261727
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1227 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 90S.
- THERE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
- AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST WITH ANY STORMS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY AND TOMORROW.
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.
- CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN A WETTER PATTERN BEGINNING
MID NEXT WEEK CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
WHILE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
OUR UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE CHANGES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THAT WILL PAVE THE WAY FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN
CHANCES AND SOME COOLER WEATHER TO FINALLY ARRIVE NEXT WEEK.
UNTIL THEN THOUGH, WE WILL HAVE TO SUFFER THROUGH A FEW MORE DAYS
OF SUMMER HEAT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
STORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO OUR WEST/NORTHWEST. THERE ARE
STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES AMONGST LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE
MEMBERS, OWING TO WEAK FORCING. THE HIGHEST AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY
ARE (1) TIMING OF STORM DEVELOPMENT - WITH GUIDANCE SPLIT BETWEEN
LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING, AND (2) HOW INTENSE/WIDESPREAD
THE CONVECTION WILL BE. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS WILL HAVE
IMPLICATIONS ON STORM CHANCES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ON
THE OTHER HAND, REGARDLESS OF HOW THESE DETAILS PLAY OUT, THE
ACTIVITY THAT'S EXPECTED THIS EVENING WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN HAZARDS.
HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, IT'S UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH ACTIVITY
WE'LL SEE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HAVE MAINTAINED 20-30% POPS
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD IN THE
EVENT CONVECTION LINGERS AS SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. ADDITIONALLY,
DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, ANY
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE CARRIED 20%
POPS INTO THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS TO
REFLECT THE LOW POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AS ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON THE EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION EARLIER IN
THE DAY. HAVE BROAD-BRUSHED POPS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
AS THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS, BUT CONTINUED WEAK FORCING WILL KEEP THIS ACTIVITY
ACROSS A RATHER BROAD AREA. GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
A SIMILAR SET UP TO SATURDAY EVENING IS EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY
EVENING, SO THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR YET ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. SHOULD THIS ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOP, IT WOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN ISOLATED SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT, WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO BE THE
MAIN HAZARDS.
HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE'LL LIKELY SEE A BREAK FROM ANY
RAIN CHANCES BEFORE A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO TRAVERSE
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL HAVE NO EFFECT ON US JUST
YET, WITH HOT AND GENERALLY RAIN-FREE WEATHER EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
PRIOR TO ITS ARRIVAL.
HEADING INTO THE MID-WEEK TIME PERIOD, WE'LL BEGIN TO SEE AN
INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS ITS FINAL
APPROACH. HOWEVER, LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE HAS YET TO ACHIEVE A
CONSENSUS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW. SOME GUIDANCE IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE, WITH RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY,
WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE SLOWER WITH THE LOW'S ARRIVAL,
HOLDING RAIN CHANCES OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY OR EVEN THURSDAY. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY, THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE/CHANGE AS A
CONSENSUS IS REACHED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ASIDE FROM THE TIMING DISCREPANCIES, WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION ONCE THE UPPER LOW MAKES IT'S ARRIVAL.
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TAP INTO
A PLUME OF VERY RICH GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR VERY
EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY PUSH A
PACIFIC FRONT TOWARDS THE REGION MID TO LATE WEEK, WHICH WILL
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS FRONT MAY NOT MAKE IT THROUGH THE REGION, WITH
THE COOLER LATE-WEEK TEMPERATURES MORE THAN LIKELY A RESULT OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN/CLOUDS. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE WEEK AND EVEN INTO THE
WEEKEND, DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER THE
REGION. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO OUR RAINY/ACTIVE PERIOD SOMETIME NEXT
WEEKEND, THOUGH THIS IS CERTAINLY SUBJECT TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
WITH ALL OF THIS SAID, HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN. THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL LIKELY
INCREASE WITH EACH ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, DESPITE OUR
RAINFALL DEFICIT THE PAST COUPLE MONTHS OR SO. WHILE IT'S STILL
TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS RAINFALL TOTALS, IT'S CERTAINLY WORTH
MONITORING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WHILE IT'S ALSO STILL
RATHER EARLY TO ASSESS ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER, DEEP LAYER
SHEAR DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE LATER THIS WEEK.
THEREFORE, WE'RE CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ORGANIZED THREAT
FOR SEVERE STORMS.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION!
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH SCT TO BKN
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD BELOW 10
KNOTS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WELL WEST OF
D10 LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
WELL BEFORE REACHING D10. THERE WILL BE A VERY LOW (15-20%) CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS IN/NEAR D10 SUNDAY MORNING, BUT BOTH
CONFIDENCE AND THE OVERALL POTENTIAL ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHERE THIS ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR AND
WHETHER ANY OF THE TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 75 94 76 95 / 10 20 10 10
WACO 72 96 74 97 / 0 10 10 10
PARIS 68 92 71 93 / 10 20 20 20
DENTON 72 95 73 95 / 10 20 10 10
MCKINNEY 70 94 72 94 / 10 20 20 10
DALLAS 75 95 77 97 / 0 20 10 10
TERRELL 70 95 73 95 / 0 20 10 10
CORSICANA 70 95 73 96 / 0 10 10 10
TEMPLE 70 96 73 97 / 0 0 10 10
MINERAL WELLS 71 96 71 96 / 10 10 10 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM....BARNES
AVIATION...BARNES
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