251
FXUS64 KFWD 160731
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
231 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING FOLLOWING
SUNDAY'S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. UNSECURED OUTDOOR ITEMS MAY BE
BLOWN AROUND IN THE WIND, AND DRIVING MAY BE DIFFICULT FOR
HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY. EXTREME CARE IS URGED DURING ALL
OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES WHERE THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GRASS FIRES
TO GET STARTED.
- A LATE SEASON FREEZE IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
SENSITIVE PLANTS WILL NEED TO BE COVERED OR BROUGHT INSIDE.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 214 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS REMAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE WEEKEND
STORM SYSTEM, AND ALTHOUGH THE WIND ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 1 AM, BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. THE REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED
BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST, MAINTAINING A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH A STRONG 925 MB JET OVER THE AREA. WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STILL MIXED OVERNIGHT, SOME OF THAT MOMENTUM WILL CONTINUE
REACHING THE SURFACE AND SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS NEARING 40 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS. A FEW VERY LIGHT WEST-TO-EAST DRIFTING RADAR RETURNS
HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND EAST TEXAS THIS MORNING.
THESE APPEAR TO BE TIED TO WEAK LIFT ALONG A 700 MB FRONTAL ZONE
WITH THE ECHOES CLEARLY ELEVATED AND EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING
THE GROUND.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY, BUT SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH WILL REMAIN
COMMON WHILE COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES. THIS MORNING'S LOWS WERE
NUDGED A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE BLENDED INITIALIZATION TO BETTER
ALIGN WITH RECENT MOS GUIDANCE, LEADING TO TEMPERATURES AT OR
BELOW FREEZING FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A GOLDTHWAITE TO
CANTON LINE. THIS COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES AND WIND SPEEDS WILL
RESULT IN WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND 20S AREAWIDE THIS MORNING.
EVEN WITH FULL SUN, IT WILL REMAIN A MUCH COLDER DAY THAN NORMAL
FOR MID MARCH WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S AND 50S THIS AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, THOUGH THE THREAT WILL
BE LESS CRITICAL THAN SUNDAY. A GRASS FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL
BE ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FALLS INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE WHILE BREEZY NORTH
WINDS PERSIST. DESPITE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES, THESE CONDITIONS
MAY STILL SUPPORT FIRE STARTS AND SPREAD, PARTICULARLY IN GRASSES
AND OTHER FINE FUELS. ANY OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE
AVOIDED. MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE
COLDEST PERIOD OF THE WEEK IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES AS WINDS
DIMINISH FURTHER AND EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING DEVELOPS
BENEATH CLEAR SKIES. NEARLY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED
TO FALL TO OR BELOW FREEZING BY SUNRISE TUESDAY, AND ANOTHER
FREEZE HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, TUESDAY WILL BEGIN WITH WIDESPREAD
SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES, BUT THE PATTERN WILL ALREADY BE IN THE
PROCESS OF CHANGING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO EAST
TEXAS BEFORE DAYBREAK, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN AND
BRINGING A SWIFT END TO THE BRIEF POST-FRONTAL COLD SPELL. AFTER A
COLD START, TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER STEADILY THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH THE WARMING TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING STRENGTHENS
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS DRY AND QUIET
WITH NO MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION SIGNAL THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
BY LATE WEEK, THE STORY WILL SHIFT FROM LINGERING COLD TO UNUSUAL
EARLY SEASON WARMTH. FRIDAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF ASTRONOMICAL
SPRING, BUT TEMPERATURES BY THEN WILL FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE LATE MAY
THAN LATE MARCH. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AS MUCH AS 30
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BY SATURDAY, SUPPORTED BY STRONG
SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE RIDGE AND ANOMALOUSLY WARM AIR ALOFT.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM THE NAEFS AND ECMWF PLACES 850 MB
TEMPERATURES NEAR +20 C WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE UPPER EDGE OF THE
HISTORICAL DISTRIBUTION FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THIS LENDS
CONFIDENCE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD WARMTH LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. GIVEN HOW STRONG THE SIGNAL IS, DAILY
MARCH RECORDS AT BOTH DFW AND WACO WILL BE WORTH WATCHING CLOSELY.
DFW CLIMATE RECORDS TO WATCH:
- MARCH 20TH: 92 (SET IN 2017), CURRENT FORECAST HIGH IS 90
- MARCH 21ST: 100 (RECORD IS LIKELY SAFE)
- MARCH 22ND: 93 (SET IN 1934, TIED IN 1995), CURRENT FORECAST HIGH IS 92
WACO CLIMATE RECORDS TO WATCH:
- MARCH 20TH: 88 (SET IN 1907, TIED IN 1916 AND 1976), CURRENT
FORECAST HIGH IS 91
- MARCH 21ST: 93 (SET IN 1916), CURRENT FORECAST HIGH IS 93
- MARCH 22ND: 89 (SET IN 1995), CURRENT FORECAST HIGH IS 92
IN ADDITION TO THE WARMING TREND, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY BEGIN
CREEPING BACK INTO THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK. WHILE WINDS DO NOT
CURRENTLY LOOK AS STRONG AS WE EXPERIENCED THIS WEEKEND,
PERSISTENT DRY WEATHER, INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPERATURES, AND THE
RETURN OF PERIODICALLY BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE DRYING
FUELS. AS A RESULT, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY RE-EMERGE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
DEEPER AFTERNOON MIXING WILL FAVOR LOWER HUMIDITY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 214 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS
CONTINUING AT ALL TAF SITES IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY'S COLD FRONT.
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY MORNING, GRADUALLY EASING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND THE POST-
FRONTAL LLJ WEAKENS. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR ASIDE FROM PASSING
CIRRUS. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 51 33 66 47 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 52 29 65 43 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 46 27 60 43 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 50 28 65 43 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 49 29 63 46 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 52 33 66 48 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 50 29 63 43 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 53 31 66 45 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 53 30 66 43 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 52 28 68 42 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>134-141>145.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12
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