976  
FXUS64 KFWD 250520  
AFDFWD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX  
1120 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2024  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
/NEW/  
/OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT WITH  
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL HELP KEEP  
TEMPERATURES UP SEVERAL DEGREES OVER LAST NIGHT WITH MOST  
LOCATIONS DROPPING INTO THE LOW/MID 50S BY MORNING.  
 
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE STORY FOR SUNDAY INTO  
MONDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND WE  
REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH MOISTURE  
GENERALLY SHUNTED EASTWARD, THE DRY COLUMN WILL WARM EFFICIENTLY  
UNDER FULL SUN BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL  
CLIMB ABOVE THE 97TH PERCENTILE TODAY AND NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL  
MAXIMUMS ON MONDAY. THE DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS ABOVE THE  
SURFACE WILL SEND TEMPERATURES SOARING INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S THIS  
AFTERNOON AND TO RECORD LEVELS (LOW/MID 90S) ON MONDAY. IN  
ADDITION, A WEAK DRYLINE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR BOTH  
DAYS, RESULTING IN HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 15-20%. WHILE  
OVERALL FUEL MOISTURE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD SHAPE, FINE DEAD FUELS  
WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO BURNING IN THE HOT DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT  
AN INCREASE IN GRASS FIRE ACTIVITY, PARTICULARLY WEST OF I-35 BOTH  
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH  
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.  
 
DUNN  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
/ISSUED 328 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2024/  
/MONDAY ONWARD/  
 
THE HEAT WILL BE TURNED UP ON MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS  
PLANTED OVERTOP THE REGION AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS.  
TEMPERATURES 500MB AND 700MB ARE AT LEAST IN THE 90TH CLIMATOLOGICAL  
PERCENTILE, WITH 850MB TEMPS SOARING TO THE 99TH PERCENTILE.  
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S. A DRYLINE WILL  
CONTINUE TO BISECT THE REGION OVER THE AFTERNOON, KEEPING WARMEST  
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-35. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE  
15-30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (WE'RE NORMALLY IN  
THE 60S!). MAKE SURE TO STAY HYDRATED IF SPENDING TIME OUTSIDE ON  
MONDAY!  
 
BY TUESDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD IN  
RESPONSE TO A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER, TUESDAY WILL STILL  
BE QUITE WARM IN THE 80S REGION-WIDE AS WE'LL STILL BE UNDER THE  
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO  
TIE/BREAK RECORD HIGHS OF 85/85 AT DFW AND ACT, RESPECTIVELY. IN  
ADDITION TO THE HEAT, INCREASINGLY DRY AIR WEST OF THE DRYLINE AND  
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY WINDS WILL PROMOTE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER  
THREAT FOR AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF I-35 BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY  
AFTERNOONS. AVOID OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THAT COULD PRODUCE FIRE STARTS!  
 
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY, SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE  
REGION OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOST WILL REMAIN DRY WITH  
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE  
POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE FRONT IN OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES (E  
OF I-35, NORTH OF I-20). SOME STORMS DURING THIS TIME COULD BECOME  
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.  
 
THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE THE STEEP DIFFERENCE IN HIGH  
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL BE  
QUITE CHILLY COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS DAYS, ONLY PEAKING IN THE 50S  
AND 60S. THIS IS A TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE OF AROUND 15-35 DEGREES IN  
24 HOURS, SENDING US BACK TO BELOW NORMAL FOR END OF FEBRUARY.  
COLDER HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY WAS THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO  
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS THE BASE NBM WAS WAY TOO WARM COMPARED TO  
OTHER GUIDANCE, AND WAS LIKELY WARMLY BIASED. HENCE, BLENDED WITH  
COLDER GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.  
 
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH  
FRIDAY, BEFORE A WARMING TREND OVER THE EARLY WEEKEND. MORNING  
LOWS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO LOW 40S, WITH THE  
RED RIVER REGION SEEING BEST CHANCES FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES.  
LOOKING DEEPER INTO CLUSTER ANALYSIS, 44% OF TOTAL MEMBERS SHOW A  
COLDER SOLUTION, WITH BEST PROBABILITIES (40-70%) NORTH OF I-20  
CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER. THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY ON IS EXACT  
LOCATION OF FREEZING TEMPS AND JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THEY MAKE IT AT  
THIS TIME. WE'LL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON GUIDANCE TRENDS AS WE  
GO THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF THE WEEK.  
 
ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH  
THE PASSING OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE. BEST CHANCES WILL BE  
OVER THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS. WHILE THE GFS WAS SHOWING THIS SOLUTION THIS TIME YESTERDAY,  
IT HAS SUBSTANTIALLY BACKED OFF. HOWEVER, THE EURO REMAINS STEADY.  
WE'LL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LOW (20-30%) CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION  
OVER THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE W TO E, EVENTUALLY EXITING  
THE REGION OVER FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
PRATER  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
/NEW/  
/6Z TAFS/  
 
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND  
15 KT. WINDS WILL VEER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON  
WITH SPEEDS DECREASING TO 5-10 KT. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT  
AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
DUNN  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 58 85 56 92 66 / 0 0 0 0 0  
WACO 51 82 60 90 65 / 0 0 0 0 0  
PARIS 52 78 56 85 65 / 0 0 0 0 0  
DENTON 56 85 51 91 65 / 0 0 0 0 0  
MCKINNEY 56 82 54 88 65 / 0 0 0 0 0  
DALLAS 57 84 58 91 67 / 0 0 0 0 0  
TERRELL 53 80 58 87 64 / 0 0 0 0 0  
CORSICANA 53 82 61 89 65 / 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMPLE 52 84 58 92 63 / 0 0 0 0 0  
MINERAL WELLS 49 89 52 94 64 / 0 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
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