604
FXUS64 KFWD 230617
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
117 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY LOW STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL STAY DRY! A COUPLE
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL USHER IN WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS
AND ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO ONLY DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY SUNRISE. CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, FINALLY LIFTING AND
SCATTERING OUT BY ~3PM THURSDAY. SOUTH WINDS AT 15-20 MPH GUSTING
TO 25-30 MPH AT TIMES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. MANY LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR
MAY STRUGGLE TO ESCAPE THE UPPER 70S WITH CLOUD COVER REMAINING AT
LEAST SCATTERED TO BROKEN INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
A HIGHLY CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO MAY
MATERIALIZE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF
A DRYLINE ALONG/NORTH OF I-20 AND WEST OF I-35. A SUBSTANTIAL
CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION FROM
OCCURRING, BUT ON THE LOW CHANCE THAT A STORM IS ABLE TO DEVELOP,
WE WILL KEEP 10-15% POPS IN THE FORECAST NORTHWEST OF THE
METROPLEX. IF A STORM DOES GO, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS MORE
LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL OK AND KS, AND WE WILL BE MONITORING A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS IT
PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND TOWARD THE RED RIVER. THE
REMNANTS OF THIS COMPLEX MAY PUSH INTO OUR FAR NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING AND
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT BY THE MORNING CONVECTION AND A SHARPENING
DRYLINE MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. AN UNSTABLE AND
SUFFICIENTLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL BE PRESENT, BUT WILL STORMS
BE ABLE TO GET GOING? A FEW UNCERTAINTIES AND LIMITING FACTORS TO
THE LATE FRIDAY STORM POTENTIAL DO EXIST:
1. THE LOCATION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE FRONT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MORNING CONVECTION STAYS NORTH
OF THE RED RIVER AND THE ONLY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IN OUR AREA IS THE DRYLINE.
2. THE LACK OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MAY NOT BE THERE TO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LIFT OUTSIDE OF CIRCULATIONS ALONG THE DRYLINE AND
FOCUSED LIFT NEAR ANY REMNANTS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. FORECASTED LFCS
ARE IN THE 4000-5000 FT RANGE FRIDAY, SO THE LACK OF UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT MAY KEEP THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING OR AT LEAST KEEP
COVERAGE QUITE ISOLATED.
3. A CAPPING INVERSION MAY ALSO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THE
AREA WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL TO SEE CINH REMOVED ENOUGH FOR CI
AFTER 4-5PM FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ALONG/EAST OF I-35 AND
ALONG/NORTH OF I-20.
ALL OF THIS TO SAY, THE SEVERE THREAT ON FRIDAY IS CONDITIONAL AS
WELL AND A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED. ANY
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL DIMINISH AND PUSH EAST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM
(THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY INCREASE SOME AS WE HEAD INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE
CONDUCIVE TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL OVERLAP STRONG
INSTABILITY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY EAST OF A DRYLINE EXPECTED
TO RESIDE NEAR THE US-281 CORRIDOR. MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED UP IN OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS OVER THE WEEKEND,
BUT LIFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GET AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE DRYLINE BOTH LATE SATURDAY AND
LATE SUNDAY. NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE STORMS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND
MANY WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A WEEKEND
WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED!
THIS SOMEWHAT ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AT LEAST LOW END DAILY THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE CURRENTLY SURGING NORTHWARD INTO NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. MVFR HAS ALREADY ARRIVED AT KACT. EXPECT CIGS TO
DROP TO 1-2 KFT WITHIN THE METROPLEX IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. A
GRADUAL DROP TO IFR STATUS IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS REMAINING OVERHEAD INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10-15 KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS RETURNING BY MIDDAY THURSDAY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 82 69 88 67 / 10 10 10 20
WACO 81 68 87 68 / 0 10 10 10
PARIS 79 67 83 63 / 10 20 30 40
DENTON 81 67 87 63 / 10 10 10 10
MCKINNEY 81 68 86 64 / 10 10 20 20
DALLAS 82 69 89 67 / 10 10 10 20
TERRELL 82 68 86 66 / 10 10 20 30
CORSICANA 84 70 87 69 / 0 10 20 30
TEMPLE 83 68 87 68 / 0 10 10 10
MINERAL WELLS 84 67 89 63 / 10 10 10 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...LANGFELD
LONG TERM....LANGFELD
AVIATION...LANGFELD
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