285
FXUS64 KFWD 151101
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
601 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY, ACCOMPANIED
BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
- MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM BACK UP.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
OVERALL, EXPECT A TEMPORARY PERIOD OF QUIETER WEATHER AS LATEST
RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE BACK AWAY FROM
MUCH PRECIPITATION WITHIN NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THIS
MORNING. MUCH OF THE LINGERING STORMS DOWN NEAR THE BIG BEND ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS THEY ADVANCE NORTHEAST INTO
MORE STABLE AIR. WE CANNOT RULE OUT THAT SOME OF THE REMNANTS FROM
THESE STORMS MAKE IT FURTHER INTO NORTH TEXAS NEAR DAYBREAK,
ALLOWING FOR SOME LIGHT MORNING RAIN, BUT THIS SCENARIO IS LOOKING
MORE UNLIKELY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A MENTION OF POPS FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH MORNING FOR THIS LOW
POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE, THE NEXT WINDOW OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS THE PLAINS. ONCE AGAIN, SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE TO OUR WEST AND MOVE NORTHEAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS IN OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES, WITH THE MAIN THREATS OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS LOOK TO BE
UNFAVORABLE FOR MUCH OF A TORNADO THREAT THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER
WE'LL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL GOING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY. FURTHER EAST OF THE DRYLINE TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR, THERE
REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED WARM-SECTOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS, THOUGH EXACT LOCATIONS AND COVERAGE REMAIN MORE UNCERTAIN.
THE SEVERE THREAT IS LOWER WITH THIS EASTERN ACTIVITY, BUT ANY
MORE ROBUST STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD CARRY A THREAT FOR HAIL AND
WINDS.
SIMILAR TO DAYS PRIOR, CONVECTION WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING, THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LINGERING RAIN IN OUR
NORTHEAST GOING INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
PAST. THE REST OF THE DAY THURSDAY WILL BE WARM, MUGGY, AND MOSTLY
DRY AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN BETWEEN OUR DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE AND THE PARENT TROUGH TO THE WEST. EXPECT AFTERNOON
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
THE PARENT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD TOWARDS THE PLAINS ON
FRIDAY, SHUNTING THE RIDGE EAST AND SENDING THE SYSTEM'S ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT SOUTH. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A DEEPENING LEE-SIDE
SURFACE LOW WILL PROMOTE BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY
FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS EARLY SATURDAY, BRINGING BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO KICK OFF THE WEEKEND. ENOUGH MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO POOL NEAR AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
IS FAIRLY LOW OVERALL AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER, STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
ENOUGH PRESENT INSTABILITY MAY PROMOTE A COUPLE MORE ROBUST
STORMS CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. THE HIGHER SEVERE
THREAT WOULD REMAIN GENERALLY TO OUR NORTH CLOSER TO THE GREATEST
LIFT FROM THE SYSTEM. EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY
TO HASH OUT SPECIFICS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
MVFR CIGS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION, AND ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST UNTIL CLOSER TO 18Z WHERE THEY WILL FINALLY LIFT BACK TO
VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN SPEED AND GUST
THIS AFTERNOON, REMAINING ELEVATED (BETWEEN 10-15 KTS) THE REST
OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS BETWEEN 21-01Z
FOR THE AIRPORTS. THE THUNDER POTENTIAL FOR D10 REMAINS LOW AND
UNCERTAIN DUE TO SPOTTY COVERAGE AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, WHILE
GREATEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE BOWIE
CORNERPOST DURING THIS TIME. HAVE PERSISTED WITH A MENTION OF VCSH
LATE AFTERNOON IN D10, AND HAVE ADDED VCTS FOR ACT WHERE THE
THUNDER PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHER. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR
INCREASING LIGHTNING POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND AMEND AS
NECESSARY. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE OVER THIS EVENING,
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR STRATUS LIKELY A COUPLE HOURS PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 80 68 87 67 / 50 30 0 0
WACO 81 67 85 66 / 50 30 0 0
PARIS 79 65 83 65 / 50 50 10 0
DENTON 79 65 86 65 / 50 20 0 10
MCKINNEY 78 67 85 67 / 50 30 0 0
DALLAS 81 67 87 68 / 50 30 0 0
TERRELL 81 67 85 66 / 50 40 0 0
CORSICANA 83 69 87 69 / 50 40 0 0
TEMPLE 82 68 87 67 / 40 30 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 81 63 88 65 / 50 10 0 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRATER
LONG TERM....PRATER
AVIATION...PRATER
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