757
FXUS64 KFWD 130033
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
733 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH 8 PM SUNDAY.
- A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM (10-20% CHANCE) MAY MOVE INTO LAMAR AND
FANNIN COUNTIES THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING.
- NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 726 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
ARE SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD FANNIN AND LAMAR COUNTIES, BUT RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THESE STORMS ARE WEAKENING AS THE SUN SETS
AND AS THEY APPROACH A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. A
FEW LOCATIONS, PARTICULARLY IN NORTHERN LAMAR COUNTY, MAY SEE LIGHT
RAIN, BUT WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED.
TODAY'S HEAT WAS BRUTAL BY SEPTEMBER STANDARDS, AND TOMORROW
UNFORTUNATELY LOOKS TO BE CUT FROM A SIMILAR CLOTH. LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE OVERHEAD AND SIMILAR MOISTURE TO TODAY
SHOULD KEEP US HOT AND HUMID, PUSHING HEAT INDEX VALUES OR
TEMPERATURES OVER CRITERIA FOR HEAT HEADLINES TOMORROW ACROSS MOST
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TX. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE EXTENDED THE HEAT
ADVISORY THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING FOR THE SAME AREAS AS TODAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
AS RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST CONUS, HIGH
HEIGHTS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE REGION WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES
AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THOSE ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT NEAR RECORD WARM
LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
DESPITE STRONG DIURNAL MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS, DEEP GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH DEW POINTS STRUGGLING TO DROP
BELOW THE UPPER-60S/LOWER-70S. THIS COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM 95-103 WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE
100-108 DEGREE RANGE TODAY. AS SUCH, A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY THROUGH 8 PM. THERE MAY NEED TO
BE ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR TOMORROW, BUT UNCERTAINTIES IN THE DEGREE OF DIURNAL
MIXING PRECLUDES AN ISSUANCE DECISION AT THIS TIME. REGARDLESS,
HEAT INDICES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE VERY HOT, LIKELY
RANGING FROM 100-104 WITH ISOLATED POCKETS (PRIMARILY NORTH OF
I-20 AND EAST OF I-35) OF 105-106 DEGREE HEAT INDICES POSSIBLE.
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE AND STRONG
DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED, A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE
RULED OUT (10-15% CHANCE) ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS AND FOR
AREAS NORTH OF I-20 AND EAST OF I-35. HOWEVER, STRONG SYNOPTIC
SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND THE LACK OF ANY SURFACE BOUNDARIES IN THE
AREA MAY VERY WELL PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY CONVECTION
ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED
TO DOMINATE THE REGION'S WEATHER PATTERN THIS UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR-RECORD HIGHS (95-103 DEGREES) EACH
DAY.
JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD, SOME MEDIUM-RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A COLD FRONT MAY MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS TEXAS
SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SIGNAL AND
DISCUSS IT MORE IN FUTURE FORECASTS SHOULD SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO RESOLVE THIS SCENARIO.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 726 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES, ASIDE FROM THE
LOW (10-15%) CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AT KACT TOMORROW MORNING
AROUND 11-14Z. GIVEN THE LOW PROBABILITY OF THIS SCENARIO, WE HAVE
KEPT MORNING STRATUS OUT OF THE 0Z TAF. EXPECT RELATIVELY LIGHT S/SE
WINDS AROUND 8-12 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 81 101 81 101 / 0 10 10 0
WACO 77 100 77 100 / 10 10 0 0
PARIS 76 100 76 100 / 20 10 10 0
DENTON 78 100 78 101 / 0 10 0 0
MCKINNEY 77 99 77 101 / 10 10 10 0
DALLAS 81 102 81 101 / 0 10 10 0
TERRELL 77 100 77 101 / 10 10 10 0
CORSICANA 77 99 77 98 / 10 10 10 0
TEMPLE 76 100 75 99 / 10 10 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 74 101 75 101 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-144>148-157>162-174-175.
SHORT TERM...DARRAH
LONG TERM....DARRAH
AVIATION...FENSKE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page