729
FXUS64 KFWD 040523
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1223 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 10% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO AFFECT AREAS
IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE RED RIVER THIS EVENING.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
IT'LL BE A SEASONABLY WARM AND BREEZY START TO THE WORKWEEK AS A
ROBUST SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME BECOMES ESTABLISHED TODAY. EXPECT
SOUTH WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON,
WHILE STRENGTHENED WARM ADVECTION ALLOWS HIGHS TO RETURN TO THE
MID AND UPPER 80S. BETTER MOISTURE RETURN WILL ALSO OCCUR, WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 60S DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS.
THIS WILL AID IN SHARPENING A DRYLINE ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON, AND A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF
MODEL GUIDANCE IS ATTEMPTING TO CONVECT THE DRYLINE AS THIS
GREATER MOISTURE CONTENT ARRIVES DURING PEAK HEATING. CONVECTIVE
ATTEMPTS WOULD LIKELY HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF CAPPING AND DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT TO OVERCOME, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS OVERALL
IS QUITE LOW. WE'LL CARRY SOME 10-20% POPS IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE
RED RIVER THIS EVENING WITH THE IDEA THAN AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
COULD DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE CWA AND SKIRT A COUPLE OF OUR
NORTH/NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AROUND SUNSET. BUT, THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO IS A DRY EVENING WITHIN THE CWA. WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
NOT FULLY DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT, IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY ALL THE WAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SAG INTO NORTH TEXAS BY MID-
AFTERNOON. IN THE PREFRONTAL WARM SECTOR, DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EAST TEXAS. THERE IS STILL A WIDE ARRAY OF CONVECTIVE SCENARIOS
THAT COULD UNFOLD WITH THIS FRONTAL INTRUSION, MAINLY DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES REGARDING CAP STRENGTH AND FRONTAL
POSITIONING/TIMING. THE MOST AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT
ROUGHLY FORM THE METROPLEX NORTHEASTWARD WITH AID FROM SUBSTANTIAL
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER, QUIETER GUIDANCE MAINTAINS
STOUT AND LIKELY INSURMOUNTABLE CAPPING THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT, AS
LARGER SCALE ASCENT LAGS TOO FAR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TO AID WITH
CAP EROSION. WE'LL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A VERY CONDITIONAL
STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT ALONG THE FRONT FROM LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, AS ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE CAPABLE
OF STRONG/SEVERE HAIL/WIND HAZARDS SHOULD INITIATION BE ABLE TO
OCCUR. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR COULD ALSO END UP BEING STORM MODE,
WHICH WOULD LIKELY BE A QUICK TRANSITION TO LINEAR SEGMENTS WITH
STORM MOTIONS AND SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED VERY PARALLEL TO THE
INITIATING BOUNDARY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY'S FORECAST ALSO REMAINS A BIT MURKY FOR CENTRAL TEXAS AT
THIS TIME DUE TO THE HANDLING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
COARSER GUIDANCE WANTS TO STALL THE BOUDNARY'S SOUTHWARD PROGRESS
AND LINGER IT ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
ALLOWING IT TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, MORE AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FAIRLY
QUICK SOUTHWARD ADVANCE AND DEPARTURE OF THIS BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD
BRING AN END TO STORM CHANCES PERHAPS AS EARLY AS MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. WE LIKELY WON'T HAVE A CLEARER SIGNAL ON THIS PORTION
OF THE FORECAST UNTIL IT IS WITHIN ~24 HOURS, AS ITS SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS COULD END UP BEING HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW RAIN
CHANCES COULD LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD IF AN OVERRUNNING REGIME CAN BE REALIZED BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. HOWEVER, THE MAJORITY OF THE LATE WEEK PERIOD AND AT
LEAST THE FIRST PORTION OF THE WEEKEND CURRENTLY FAVOR A MOSTLY
DRY SOLUTION WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS. EXPECT DAYTIME GUST NEAR 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS
ONLY SLIGHTLY DECREASING OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AN
INTRUSION OF MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED NEAR THE VERY END OF THE
VALID FORECAST PERIOD, BUT A SOUTHWESTERLY VEERING OF LOW-LEVEL
FLOW MAY CAUSE THESE CIGS TO PRIMARILY BE SHUNTED EAST OF THE D10
TAF SITES. FOR THIS REASON, WILL NOT YET INCLUDE A CATEGORY
REDUCTION IN THE EXTENDED DFW TAF.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 81 60 84 70 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 79 59 82 69 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 80 57 80 68 / 0 0 0 10
DENTON 81 58 83 69 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 81 60 82 69 / 0 0 0 10
DALLAS 83 61 84 71 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 80 57 81 68 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 81 57 82 70 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 79 57 81 68 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 80 56 88 68 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...STALLEY
LONG TERM....STALLEY
AVIATION...STALLEY
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