488
FXUS64 KFWD 281046
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
546 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOLLOWING
YESTERDAY'S STRONG COLD FRONT.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH NO CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH MONDAY.
- A PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALLOW DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
WIDESPREAD POST-FRONTAL STRATUS WILL RESULT IN OVERCAST SKIES
THROUGH MOST OF TODAY, AS SOUTHEASTERLY 850MB FLOW SUPPORTS
OVERRUNNING AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR VERY
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE THROUGH THIS MORNING,
AND THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM NORTH TEXAS SOUTHWESTWARD
TOWARDS THE HILL COUNTRY. SINCE THE POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE RAIN
IS VERY LOW, POPS WILL BE HELD TO NO MORE THAN 20-30% THROUGH THE
MORNING. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WILL GRADUALLY END HEADING INTO
THE AFTERNOON, WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS EAST TEXAS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S THANKS TO
THE CLOUDY SKIES.
A RETURN TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES WILL LEAD TO A PRONOUNCED WARMUP ON SUNDAY. HIGHS
WILL BE 20-25 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY DUE TO WARM ADVECTION AND
INSOLATION, WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
IT WILL BE A WARM AND DRY START TO THE WORKWEEK WITH A RENEWED
WARM ADVECTION REGIME AND STEADY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN.
RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT, WITH SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES
FURTHER CONTRIBUTING TO A WARMING TREND AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY. TUESDAY'S HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE AS
MUCH AS 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S.
RECENT GUIDANCE HAS ARRIVED AT A MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION FOR A
PATTERN SHIFT AND ATTENDANT DRYLINE/FRONTAL INTRUSION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE PRECEDING A MUCH DEEPER LONGWAVE TROUGH WHICH IS SET
TO INVADE THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. THE LEAD DISTURBANCE ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF
IGNITING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG A COLD
FRONT/DRYLINE TRIPLE POINT ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WHICH
WOULD ADVANCE INTO OUR AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
WHILE IT'S STILL TOO SOON TO DIVE INTO SPECIFICS, THE OVERALL
SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETER SPACE CURRENTLY APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF
AT LEAST A LOW-END STRONG/SEVERE THREAT. THIS SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF DROPPING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE CHANCES
WON'T END WITH THE FRONT'S PASSAGE, AS THE MUCH DEEPER TROUGH
BRINGS ADDITIONAL WAVES OF ASCENT OVERHEAD DURING THE FOLLOWING
FEW DAYS. THIS MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN COULD BE CAPABLE OF
DELIVERING MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL GIVEN THE DRY START TO THE SEASON,
ALTHOUGH IT WILL ALSO LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SPRINGTIME
CONVECTIVE HAZARDS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 532 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
VFR CIGS AT 4-5 KFT PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AS OF 11Z, AND THIS
WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME UNTIL
GRADUAL SCATTERING OCCURS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL LARGELY REMAIN WEST OF THE TAF SITES THE REST OF THIS
MORNING BEFORE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ENDS IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH
ONLY A 10% OR LESS CHANCE OF RAIN AT THE AIRPORTS, WILL NOT
INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS TO BECOME PREDOMINANTLY EASTERLY BY MIDDAY, AND FINALLY
SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING AT SPEEDS OF 5-8 KTS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 58 52 83 61 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 60 50 83 60 / 10 0 0 0
PARIS 62 50 80 58 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 58 48 82 58 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 59 50 81 60 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 60 53 83 62 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 61 50 82 59 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 61 52 85 61 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 60 50 84 60 / 10 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 56 46 83 57 / 10 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...STALLEY
LONG TERM....STALLEY
AVIATION...STALLEY
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