658
FXUS64 KFWD 141749
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1249 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 DEGREES WITH LOW STORM CHANCES (MAINLY
IN CENTRAL/EAST TX) ARE FORECAST TODAY.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST FOR
WESTERN NORTH TX WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS
ON FRIDAY. PEAK WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH ARE LIKELY MUCH OF
THE DAY.
- MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
ANOTHER DAY OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TODAY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO PUMP WARM AND MOIST AIR ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN PEAK IN THE
LOW-MID 90S, AND 60S/70S DEWPOINTS WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE
MID 90S TO JUST ABOVE 100 DEGREES. A QUASI-STATIONARY COLD FRONT
IS DRAPED TO OUR NORTH AND WEST, WHICH CONTINUES TO BE THE
FOCUSING POINT FOR SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT IN WEST TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE
OF OUR REGION TODAY, SOME SHOWERS/STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO SKIRT
ALONG THE RED RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, THE STRONG WAA
REGIME WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
PRIMARILY WITHIN EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON. NEBULOUS ASCENT WILL KEEP COVERAGE FAIRLY SPOTTY, AND
MOST WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE TODAY.
CONTINUALLY DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND STORMS OUT WEST ALONG THE
FRONT/DRYLINE ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY AS ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SWINGS ACROSS COLORADO, AND ARE LIKELY TO BREACH OUR WEST AND
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH THE FURTHER IT GETS INTO OUR REGION OVER THE MORNING.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED IN THIS SAME AREA DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS AS THE PARENT CLOSED-LOW MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND SHUNTS THE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD.
THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO REACH OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES IN THE
AFTERNOON, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. COVERAGE WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS THE BEST LIFT REMAINS
DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH. EXPECT THE FRONT TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD OVER
THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS, WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
MOVING CLOSER TO THE I-35 CORRIDOR. A DIMINISHING TREND IS ONCE
AGAIN ANTICIPATED AS STORMS REACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR, WITH LITTLE
TO NO RAIN ANTICIPATED FOR EASTERN NORTH TEXAS AND MUCH OF CENTRAL
TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT, EXPECT MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS
UP TO 30-35 MPH.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
WINDS OVER THE DAY FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE POST-
FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS.
OVER MUCH OF THE DAY, SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 20-30 MPH AND GUSTS
UP TO AROUND 40 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
REGION ISOLATED GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
THESE SPEEDS ARE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE OUR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA,
AND ONE WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT DAY.
NONETHELESS, MAKE SURE TO SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS AND TAKE
CAUTION WHEN DRIVING ON W-E FACING ROADS.
ALONGSIDE THOSE WINDY CONDITIONS, TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL MUCH
MORE LIKE FALL AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO PEAK IN
THE LOW 60S AND LOW 70S. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ON
SATURDAY, WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LESSEN
SUBSTANTIALLY BY SATURDAY MORNING , AS THE POST-FRONTAL SURFACE
HIGH FINALLY NUDGES INTO NORTH TEXAS. UNFORTUNATELY, THE FALL-LIKE
CONDITIONS WILL NOT STICK AROUND HEADED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED ATOP MEXICO AND THE
GULF, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING LATER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS, AND A RAMP UP OF MOISTURE ADVECTION
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE BACK INTO THE
80S OVER THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AT ALL TAF SITES. WHILE A SLUG OF DRY MID-UPPER LEVEL AIR WILL
MOVE OVERTOP THE AIRPORTS, ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY STICK
AROUND TO PUSH OUT A FEW HOURS OF INTERMITTENT MVFR NEAR DAYBREAK
THROUGH MID MORNING TOMORROW. CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT AND LIFT
THE REST OF THE DAY, WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS. SHOWERS AND
STORMS OUT AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE D10
SITES TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT WILL MOST LIKELY STAY TO THE WEST
BEFORE DIMINISHING. A COUPLE OF CAMS SHOW A FURTHER EASTWARD
PROGRESSION, BUT THESE REMAIN THE OUTLIERS. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW, AND SEE HOW FUTURE GUIDANCE RESOLVES THIS. THE FRONT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH D10 UNTIL JUST AFTER THE END OF THE 30
HOUR EXTENDED PERIOD, BUT WINDS JUST PRIOR TO THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH AND FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOK TO SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
CLOSER TO 23-00Z.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 72 88 61 67 / 10 10 30 0
WACO 69 87 61 70 / 10 0 20 0
PARIS 68 87 58 67 / 10 10 10 0
DENTON 71 87 56 65 / 20 10 50 0
MCKINNEY 70 87 57 65 / 20 10 20 0
DALLAS 72 88 62 68 / 10 10 20 0
TERRELL 69 87 60 68 / 10 0 10 0
CORSICANA 69 86 62 69 / 10 0 10 0
TEMPLE 69 88 62 71 / 10 0 30 0
MINERAL WELLS 70 86 56 65 / 30 30 70 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRATER
LONG TERM....PRATER
AVIATION...PRATER
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