029
FXUS64 KFWD 111750
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1150 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 70S AND 80S.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING OVERTOP THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HAS
INDUCED A LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THIS LOW
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD E-ESE INTO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
THIS AFTERNOON, TIGHTENING THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE END RESULT OF THIS WILL BE A BREEZY
DAY WITH INCREASED WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH, WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH
EXPECTED. OUR LATEST DRY SPELL HAS ALLOWED CURED FUELS TO
INCREASED ACROSS THE REGION, AND COUPLED WITH LOW HUMIDITY BETWEEN
15-25% EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE AT LEAST
AN ELEVATED WILD FIRE THREAT. THE AFOREMENTIONED BREEZY WINDS
WILL FURTHER COMPLICATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT AS ANY FIRE START
WILL HAVE A HIGHER RATE OF SPREAD THIS AFTERNOON. MAKE SURE TO
AVOID ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITY THAT COULD START WILDFIRES! GUSTY
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
BECOMES DECOUPLED.
OUTSIDE OF THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN AND BREEZY WINDS, THE
FORECAST WILL REMAIN QUIET AND DRY AS WE HEAD INTO MIDWEEK. THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 60S AND 70S UNDERNEATH SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND FULL SUN. A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED TO OUR
SOUTHEAST BY MIDWEEK, ALLOWING FOR MORE EFFICIENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL INCREASE THE AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY AND LOWER THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR TOMORROW. CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PUSH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE 70S AND LOW 80S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE WARM FOR MID-NOVEMBER STANDARDS AS
RIDGING REMAINS THE MAIN INFLUENCE IN OUR WEATHER PATTERN. THIS
WILL NOT BE THE CASE THIS WEEKEND, HOWEVER, AS A PATTERN SHIFT IS
EXPECTED. INCREASED MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PUMPED INTO THE
REGION AS WE REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. TO OUR
WEST, A CLOSED UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND, SWINGING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS AS WE GO INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. LIFT
FROM THE SYSTEM AND MOISTURE OUT AHEAD WILL PROMOTE INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO LOCATION OF BEST RAIN
CHANCES, AS LONG-RANGE MODELS ARE IN CONFLICT IN REGARDS TO THE
LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW. LOOKING A BIT DEEPER INTO THE
INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, THERE IS A GOOD SIGNAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND. ALL THIS BEING SAID, THERE
IS CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, BUT THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON BOTH LOCATIONS
OF BEST CHANCES AND ANY STRONGER STORM POTENTIAL. BOTTOM LINE -
CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST AS FUTURE UPDATES WILL
HOLD MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF
SITES, WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KTS EXPECTED. AFTER SUNSET SPEEDS
AND GUSTS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH, WITH OVERNIGHT SPEEDS FURTHER
DROPPING BELOW 10 KTS. OTHERWISE, VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
TAF CYCLE WITH NICE FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 50 76 56 81 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 51 78 57 82 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 46 74 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 44 74 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 47 74 53 80 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 51 77 57 82 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 49 77 54 81 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 53 79 59 83 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 49 79 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 44 80 50 84 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRATER
LONG TERM....PRATER
AVIATION...PRATER
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