170  
FXUS64 KFWD 291035  
AFDFWD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX  
535 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION, SHORT TERM  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH  
TEXAS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY MAINLY EAST OF  
I-35.  
 
- BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL BE DAILY CHANCES (30 TO 50  
PERCENT) FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
/NEW/  
UPDATE:  
LOW CLOUDS QUICKLY BECAME WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT, WHICH HELPED  
MITIGATE ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER  
AROUND MIDDAY, GIVING WAY TO A WARM AND BREEZY SATURDAY. ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH  
AND CENTRAL TEXAS, WHERE 20 TO 30 POPS ARE IN PLACE. ANY STORM  
WHICH DEVELOPS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY  
CONCERN. THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO MAJOR  
CHANGES IN THE MORNING UPDATE.  
 
30  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:  
/THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING ALOFT WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE NEXT 12  
TO 18 HOURS AS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BECOMES SITUATED BETWEEN AN  
EXITING SHORTWAVE OVER LOUISIANA AND THE NEXT APPROACHING  
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN. LIGHT SOUTH  
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING  
SHORTWAVE IS LEADING TO PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUD FORMATION AS  
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS APPROACH ZERO. DENSE FOG IS UNLIKELY DUE TO  
THE EQUAL PRESENCE OF LOW CLOUDS, BUT CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED  
OUT ON A LOCALIZED BASIS. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND CLOUDS WILL SCATTER  
MID SATURDAY MORNING AS RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS OUT AHEAD OF THE  
ENCROACHING SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST. WARM AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL  
MAKE FOR AN OVERALL NICE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 80S  
IN THE AFTERNOON. A DRYLINE WILL ACTUALLY ENTER THE WESTERN-MOST  
COUNTIES, PUSHING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S ALONG  
AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281, WHERE AN ELEVATED WILDFIRE THREAT WILL  
EXIST IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THUNDERSTORMS: THE  
DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO MIX EAST TO NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR  
SATURDAY EVENING, AROUND THE TIME SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED  
WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ARRIVES. A STRONG CAPPING  
INVERSION, HOWEVER, WILL LIKELY SHUT OFF ANY SURFACE BASED  
CONVECTIVE ATTEMPTS. WITH THAT SAID, A 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL  
DEVELOP AT OR BEFORE MIDNIGHT, WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE  
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ABOVE THE 925MB LEVEL. CONVECTIVE  
PARAMETERS WILL MORE THAN SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH STEEP  
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE AND THE ASSOCIATED 2000 J/KG OF  
MUCAPE, ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 50 KT.  
 
NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE STORMS DUE TO THE EXPECTED ISOLATED  
COVERAGE, BUT THOSE THAT DO WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO EXPERIENCE  
LARGE HAIL. RECENT CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO  
KEY IN ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION STILL OCCURRING SOMEWHERE NEAR  
THE DRYLINE, ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR SHERMAN TO THE DFW METROPLEX  
TO THE COLORADO RIVER. STORMS WOULD LIKELY DEVELOP AROUND  
MIDNIGHT, AND PUSH EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ACTIVITY WOULD EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AROUND MID  
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET MIXES OUT.  
 
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING AS A TRAILING SHORTWAVE DRAGS A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST  
THROUGH THE REGION. THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 AND ALONG/SOUTH OF  
I-30 WHERE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL STILL EXIST. THESE STORMS  
WILL HAVE A BETTER POTENTIAL OF BECOMING SURFACE-BASED, PRESENTING  
BOTH A HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THREAT WHILE SPREADING SOUTHEAST  
THROUGH CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, EVENTUALLY  
EXITING TO THE EAST AND SOUTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.  
 
30  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
/ISSUED 320 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025/  
/SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/  
   
..SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY  
 
BY SUNDAY NIGHT, THE PRIMARY UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE  
FOR THIS WEEKEND'S STORMS WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE  
MISSISSIPPI/OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. HIGHER HEIGHTS BUILDING ACROSS  
THE CENTRAL CONUS IN TANDEM WITH DRY NORTHERLY POST-FRONTAL FLOW  
AT THE SURFACE WILL BRING A CLEAR AND PLEASANT DAY TO THE REGION  
ON MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR  
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. TEMPERATURES MAY NOT WARM OUT OF  
THE 60S CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER. NIGHTTIME LOWS SUNDAY AND MONDAY  
NIGHTS WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER, WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO  
THE LOWER 50S/UPPER 40S BOTH NIGHTS.  
 
   
..TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY  
 
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE UPPER-  
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. EMBEDDED IN STRONG  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, PERIODIC SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO  
EJECT OUT INTO THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGHOUT THIS UPCOMING WORK  
WEEK. WHILE THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION DETAILS ARE STILL  
UNCERTAIN, A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RESIDE OVER MOST OF  
THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS OF  
INSTABILITY (2000 TO 3500+ J/KG OF CAPE) POSSIBLE EACH EVENING.  
THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH PERSISTENT STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL  
SET THE STAGE FOR MULTIPLE, POTENTIALLY DAILY CHANCES FOR STRONG  
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT.  
SHOULD THESE DAILY CHANCES FOR STORMS MATERIALIZE, THERE WILL BE  
AN INCREASING THREAT OF FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEK NEXT WEEK AS  
WELL. THOUGH THERE IS STILL SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW LONG  
THIS PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE, MEDIUM RANGE  
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT GENERAL STORMINESS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH  
NEXT WEEKEND.  
 
DARRAH  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
/NEW/  
/12Z TAFS/  
 
IFR CEILINGS WILL SCATTER BY MIDDAY, GIVING WAY TO VFR AND GUSTY  
SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL  
TONIGHT HAS WARRANTED VCTS STARTING AT 05Z FOR THE METROPLEX.  
PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW FOR ANY MENTION OF THUNDER AT KACT AT  
THIS TIME. ISOLATED STORMS WILL MOVE OUT WHILE MVFR CIGS MOVE IN  
AROUND 09Z SUNDAY.  
 
30  
 
 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 84 67 84 51 69 / 0 20 20 10 5  
WACO 83 66 84 55 72 / 0 10 20 10 0  
PARIS 80 65 79 49 67 / 0 40 30 30 10  
DENTON 84 64 84 46 69 / 5 20 10 10 0  
MCKINNEY 82 65 81 49 68 / 0 30 20 20 5  
DALLAS 84 67 84 53 71 / 0 20 20 20 5  
TERRELL 81 66 81 51 69 / 0 20 30 20 5  
CORSICANA 83 67 82 55 71 / 0 10 20 20 5  
TEMPLE 84 66 85 55 74 / 0 10 20 5 0  
MINERAL WELLS 92 62 87 48 72 / 5 20 10 5 0  
 
 
   
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
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