507
FXUS64 KFWD 071755
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1255 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- LOW STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND ALONG THE RED RIVER
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
- ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DAILY INTO NEXT WEEK
ACROSS OUR EAST/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON IS IN STORE TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS. IN
CENTRAL TEXAS, TEMPERATURE WILL LIKELY PEAK BETWEEN 97-99
DEGREES, HOWEVER, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM WITH
100-104 DEGREES THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
THE ONGOING WAVE OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS IN LARGE PART DUE
TO AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY SETTLED ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. TODAY, THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS DRY AND HOT, HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE CHANGING AS
WE GO THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR MID-LEVEL NORTHERLY
FLOW TO SETTLE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
ONGOING ACROSS OKLAHOMA WITH A GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY CLIP OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT.
THE SUBTLE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS ON SATURDAY. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING, A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION WHERE REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM THE MORNING ACTIVITY PERSIST. ALTHOUGH OVERALL
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOW, IF A STORM OR TWO DEVELOP,
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE WINDOW FOR
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO THE DAYTIME HOURS AS ANY
SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET, EXPECT PRECIPITATION-
FREE CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, OUR REGION WILL BE POSITIONED
BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH A GENERAL WEAKNESS ATOP
OUR REGION. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A STORM OR TWO EACH AFTERNOON
SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTH OR CENTRAL TEXAS, HOWEVER, A LACK OF
STRONG ASCENT WILL GENERALLY KEEP MOST LOCATIONS DRY. GOING INTO
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, THE FOUR CORNERS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST REDUCING OUR RAIN CHANCES TO NEAR 0%.
ADDITIONALLY, WE'LL LIKELY SEE MORE LOCATIONS REACHING THE TRIPLE
DIGIT MARK THANKS TO CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE.
LOOKING BEYOND THIS UPCOMING WORK WEEK, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST A PERSISTENT PATTERN WITH WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL LOOK
MINIMAL AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE
WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT VEGETATION, INCREASING
THE OVERALL THREAT FOR WILDFIRE STARTS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
VFR AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THIS TAF CYCLE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM
FROM THE NORTH, HOWEVER, LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO ANY
OF THE TAF SITES. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY PUSH SOUTH
OUT OF OKLAHOMA TONIGHT, WITH REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN PLACE
TOMORROW. A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS, HOWEVER, OVERALL RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
BELOW 15%. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND CHANGES WILL
BE MADE TO THE TAF IF RAIN PROBABILITIES INCREASE TOMORROW.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 80 99 79 99 / 0 10 10 0
WACO 76 98 76 96 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 76 94 74 96 / 20 20 10 0
DENTON 77 99 77 99 / 10 10 10 0
MCKINNEY 77 98 76 97 / 10 10 10 0
DALLAS 81 99 80 100 / 0 10 10 0
TERRELL 76 98 75 98 / 10 20 10 0
CORSICANA 76 99 76 98 / 0 10 0 0
TEMPLE 75 97 75 97 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 74 100 74 99 / 0 10 10 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ
AVIATION...HERNANDEZ
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