327
FXUS64 KFWD 261102
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
602 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE,
BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, THOUGH COVERAGE AND TIMING WILL VARY EACH DAY. FLOODING
CONCERNS MAY INCREASE WHERE REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS OCCUR.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 203 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS IS QUIET EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH
THE EARLIER CONVECTION NOW DIMINISHED AND THE NEXT ROUND STILL
ORGANIZING TO OUR WEST. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY DEVELOP TOWARD
DAYBREAK, MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND THE BIG COUNTRY,
AS MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASES AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THE WEAK
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING OVER THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTH AND EAST THIS MORNING WHILE A DEEPER
PACIFIC LOW DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
NEXT LEAD SHORTWAVE TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND TOWARD WEST
TEXAS LATER TODAY.
DURING THE DAY TODAY, THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL REMAIN WEST OF
OUR AREA, BUT A BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD,
STRONG SURFACE HEATING, AND A MOIST AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT LOW RAIN
CHANCES PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS BY LATE MORNING AND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AND SOMEWHAT
DISORGANIZED, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, LIGHTNING, AND BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS AS THE MAIN CONCERNS. FARTHER WEST, STORMS SHOULD BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
OVERSPREADS WEST TEXAS AND INTERACTS WITH THE DRYLINE, HIGHER
TERRAIN, AND DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME. STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRONGER ASCENT AND DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME
TUESDAY EVENING, THEN MOVE EAST INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
TUESDAY NIGHT. RECENT CAM TRENDS HAVE SPED UP THE ARRIVAL TIME,
BRINGING STORMS INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 7
PM, THE I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND 9-10 PM, AND THE EASTERN COUNTIES
CLOSER TO OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. BY THE TIME THIS ACTIVITY
REACHES OUR FORECAST AREA, STORM INTERACTIONS AND UPSCALE GROWTH
SHOULD FAVOR A NARROW, LOOSELY ORGANIZED LINE OR CLUSTER OF
STORMS. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE,
BUT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER 30 KT AND LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR WILL BE WEAK. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT,
BUT A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
THE MORE LIKELY IMPACT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL
BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. PW VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES,
WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, AND MODEST INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES, ESPECIALLY WHERE STORMS REPEAT OR MOVE
OVER AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED RECENT RAIN. THE LINE MAY WEAKEN OR
FRAGMENT AS IT MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
WHERE INFLOW MAY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AND THE COLD POOL MAY
BEGIN OUTRUNNING THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. THAT SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN
AS A CLEAN END TO RAIN CHANCES. THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
PIVOT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
HIGH, SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
BEHIND THE INITIAL LINE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY'S FORECAST WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW TUESDAY NIGHT'S
CONVECTION EVOLVES. A PERIOD OF LIGHTER SHOWERS OR A RELATIVE LULL
MAY OCCUR DURING THE MORNING, BUT THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE SLOW TO
MOVE EAST AND MAY STALL OUT NEAR OR EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
LINGERING ASCENT, RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES, AND A MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH AT LEAST PART OF THE
DAY. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME, THOUGH SCATTERED ACTIVITY MAY LINGER ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN THE MAIN
CONCERN, WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS STILL CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS
AND LIGHTNING.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE
MIDWEEK DISTURBANCE SLOWLY PULLS EAST AND RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES
REMAIN IN PLACE. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE SHOULD GENERALLY BE ALONG
AND EAST OF I-35, WHILE WESTERN NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS SHOULD
BEGIN TRENDING DRIER. THIS WILL NOT BE A CLEAN CLEARING LINE FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA, AND LOW TO MODERATE RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY EAST OF US-281. ANY
ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND BRING A
LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE
HEAVIER RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BECOME LOWER AND MORE FOCUSED EAST OF I-35
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS TEXAS,
BUT THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN MOIST ENOUGH TO KEEP SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LOWER THAN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY PERIOD, WITH MANY
WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOCATIONS TRENDING DRIER WHILE EASTERN NORTH
TEXAS, EAST TEXAS, AND THE BRAZOS VALLEY REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND ANY LINGERING BOUNDARIES. THE BEST OPPORTUNITY
FOR A BRIEF BREAK APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE LOW RAIN
CHANCES BEGIN TO FILL BACK IN EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
RESPOND WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S IN
MANY AREAS BY LATE WEEK.
THE PATTERN MAY TURN MORE ACTIVE AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED. TIMING AND COVERAGE REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT
THIS RANGE, BUT INTERMITTENT STORM CHANCES SHOULD RETURN SATURDAY
INTO MONDAY. THE SEVERE THREAT IS TOO UNCLEAR TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
FAR OUT, BUT ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE HEAVIER RAIN EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
VFR PREVAILS WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY LATE MORNING.
A FEW SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP WEST OF THE
METROPLEX OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, BUT IMPACTS TO THE
TERMINALS REMAIN UNLIKELY. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TERMINALS DURING PEAK HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IN DIRECT IMPACTS REMAINS LOW SO VCTS
REMAINS ADVERTISED FOR THE NORTH TEXAS AIRPORTS FROM 20-23Z. THE
MORE IMPACTFUL CONVECTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT AS STORMS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST, WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE
STILL FAVORING ARRIVAL NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 01-03Z.
TEMPO GROUPS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR TSRA AT THE METROPLEX TERMINALS
AND KACT, WITH BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS, GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS
AND LOWERED CEILINGS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR STORMS. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS MAY LINGER BEHIND THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY TODAY OR TONIGHT, BUT ANY
REPORTS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES ARE
APPRECIATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 86 69 81 68 / 40 90 60 40
WACO 86 69 80 68 / 10 80 60 30
PARIS 83 67 78 66 / 30 40 70 60
DENTON 84 67 80 67 / 40 90 60 40
MCKINNEY 84 68 79 67 / 40 80 70 50
DALLAS 87 69 82 69 / 30 90 60 40
TERRELL 87 68 80 67 / 30 80 70 50
CORSICANA 88 71 82 70 / 20 80 60 40
TEMPLE 88 69 81 69 / 10 80 60 30
MINERAL WELLS 83 65 81 65 / 50 90 50 30
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page