387
FXUS64 KFWD 292322
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
522 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY A
STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
SOME STORMS NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 COULD BECOME STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
- MUCH COLDER AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT,
WITH WIND CHILLS ON SUNDAY MORNING DROPPING INTO THE MID TEENS
TO UPPER 20S.
- SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL RETURN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION REMAINS LOW, BUT WE CAN'T
RULE OUT A BRIEF WINDOW OF LIGHT SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN NEAR THE
RED RIVER EARLY MONDAY MORNING. NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
WHILE OUR EARLY MORNING SHOWERS EXIT INTO EAST TEXAS, ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGS
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. THE FRONT HAS BREACHED OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES AS OF 145 PM AND WILL STEADILY MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST,
REACHING THE DFW METROPLEX AROUND 3 PM, AND FINALLY ENTERING
CENTRAL TEXAS CLOSER TO 5-6 PM. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON, GROWING INTO MORE
MESSY CLUSTERS AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
WHILE THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW, ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING CAPABLE OF HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS FOR AREAS MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF I-35. OUR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL COME TO AN END LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT EXITS THE
REGION.
BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG WINDS WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES, WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S TO UPPER
30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. CONTINUED BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO LOW
30S ON SUNDAY MORNING, MAKING FOR A POSITIVELY CHILLY END TO THE
WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ONLY PEAK IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
OVER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE WILL BE SWINGING INTO THE PLAINS, USHERING IN MORE
SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION.
DUE TO THIS INCREASED CLOUD COVER, ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT THE
LATEST CLUSTER ANALYSIS ONLY HAS A LOW CHANCE FOR SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES (20-30% OR LOWER) ON MONDAY, HAVE UPPED MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES FROM BASE NBM. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT
IN THE LOW-MID 30S TO LOW 40S. ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVERTOP THE
COOLER POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR LOW RAIN CHANCES TO
SPREAD NORTHWARD OUT AHEAD OF THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE STARTING
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCES WILL BE LOCATED IN AREAS EAST
OF I-35.
MOST (IF NOT ALL) OF MONDAY'S EARLY MORNING PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL AS LIQUID RAIN. HOWEVER, WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
FREEZING NEAR THE RED RIVER, WE CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPITS OF
SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IN THIS AREA. LOOKING FURTHER INTO THE
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE, SOUNDINGS SHOW AN ELEVATED WARM NOSE WITH A
VERY SHALLOW (IF EVEN PRESENT AT ALL) RE-FREEZING LAYER JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE. THIS BORDERLINE PROFILE IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO A WELL-
ROUNDED FREEZING PRECIPITATION EVENT, AND WITH DIURNAL WARMING
BEGINNING AFTER DAYBREAK, LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS OR ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR.
WE'LL HAVE ANOTHER RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ON TUESDAY, WITH
MORNING LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S, BEFORE A
WARMING TREND TAKES PLACE THE REST OF THE WEEK. AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL TAKE RESIDENCE OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND
BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THIS WILL COME
SOON.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 510 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY VACATED THE METROPLEX TAF SITES
AS OF 23Z, WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THESE
TERMINALS AT THE PRESENT TIME. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH GUSTS NEAR OR EXCEEDING 25 KTS OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. A CORRIDOR OF POST-FRONTAL MVFR STRATUS AT 2-3 KFT HAS
ALSO DEVELOPED JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL ZONE, AND A TEMPO FOR
INTERMITTENT CIGS WILL BE INCLUDED UNTIL 02Z ALONG WITH A MENTION
OF LIGHT RAIN. FOR WACO, THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL PASS THROUGH THE TAF SITE DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS,
AND A WINDOW OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS POSSIBLE JUST
BEFORE AND ALONG THE FRONT'S PASSAGE. VFR CIGS WILL THEN PREVAIL
AT ALL SITES INTO SUNDAY WITH GRADUALLY LESSENING WIND SPEEDS
DURING THE DAYTIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 33 44 36 43 / 10 0 20 40
WACO 36 46 39 46 / 40 0 20 50
PARIS 30 45 34 38 / 20 0 20 60
DENTON 28 43 34 42 / 0 0 20 30
MCKINNEY 31 43 34 41 / 10 0 20 50
DALLAS 33 45 37 44 / 20 0 20 40
TERRELL 33 46 36 43 / 30 0 20 60
CORSICANA 37 48 39 45 / 60 0 20 60
TEMPLE 38 47 39 47 / 40 10 20 40
MINERAL WELLS 30 46 34 47 / 0 0 20 30
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRATER
LONG TERM....PRATER
AVIATION...STALLEY
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