170
FXUS64 KFWD 021854
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
154 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35.
- HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURNING THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/
THE PATCHY FOG THAT WAS OBSERVED THIS MORNING HAS ERODED, LEAVING
BEHIND THE START OF A SOMEWHAT EARLY SEPTEMBER DAY. ISOLATED-
SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO POP UP TO OUR EAST AND
NORTH NEAR THE RED RIVER. WITH MINIMAL SYNOPTIC CHANGE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING, PARTICULARLY CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR AND
EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND THE RED RIVER. CHANCES FOR RAIN
FURTHER WEST WILL BE MUCH LOWER, BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT A POP UP
SHOWER OR TWO (< 10% CHANCE). BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS,
AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STORM THAT IS ABLE
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THE ISOLATED NATURE OF CONVECTION WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE REGION DRY, OBSERVING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S. AS DIURNALLY-DRIVEN HEATING IS THE MAIN FORCING
FOR ASCENT TODAY, COVERAGE OF ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG ANY OUTFLOW WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING TONIGHT.
A SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS THIS HIGH MOVES THROUGH, DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER IN. LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL, BUT
THE DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING OUTSIDE OF
FOG-PRONE AND LOW-LYING VALLEYS. AFTERNOON HIGHS TOMORROW WILL
AGAIN BE ABLE TO PEAK IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S.
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, YOU MAY NOTICE HAZY SKIES. THIS IS
DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF WILDFIRE SMOKE ORIGINATING THE PACNW AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS THERE WILL BE MINIMAL CHANGE IN OUR MID
LEVEL PATTERN (THE REGION WILL REMAIN PLANTED UNDERNEATH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT), THE HAZINESS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK.
PRATER
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD/
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION AS THE SURFACE HIGH EXITS
TO OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
WARM EVEN MORE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN
THE 90S BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH SOME ISOLATED SPOTS IN
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS POTENTIALLY REACHING 100 DEGREES. THANKFULLY,
THIS WILL NOT PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A PATTERN SHIFT
WILL TAKE PLACE.
A DIGGING SHORTWAVE OFF IN THE MIDWEST WILL SEND ITS ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY, EVENTUALLY MAKING
IT INTO NORTH TEXAS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, TROPICAL
STORM LORENA IN THE EAST PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A RIGHT TURN
INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SONORA THIS WEEKEND, WITH MOST GUIDANCE
CONTINUING TO SHIFT ITS TROPICAL MOISTURE EASTWARD OVER TEXAS. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASED MOISTURE FROM BOTH LORENA AND THE GULF,
INTERACTING WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION IS LEADING TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY ONWARD AS THE
REMNANT UPPER LOW OF LORENA MOVES OVERHEAD. AT THIS TIME,
CONSENSUS SHOWS BEST RAIN CHANCES ARE NEAR AND WEST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR THIS WEEKEND, WITH LOWER CHANCES FURTHER EAST.
ADDITIONALLY, CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN-COOLED POST-FRONTAL AIR WOULD
BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER THIS SCENARIO WILL
OCCUR, AS GUIDANCE IS NOT IN 100% AGREEMENT (THE EURO WANTS TO
KEEP LORENA IN THE PACIFIC), BUT A MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE HIGHLIGHTING INCREASED QPF SATURDAY ONWARD.
BOTTOM LINE - THERE CONTINUES TO BE POTENTIAL FOR A RAINY WEEKEND
AND OUTDOOR PLANS COULD BE IMPACTED. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR ROUNDS OF RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING THREATS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS
NECESSARY. MAKE SURE TO KEEP UPDATED WITH THE FORECAST AS MORE
SPECIFIC DETAILS REGARDING LOCATIONS, TIMING, AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BECOME CLEARER AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME.
PRATER
AVIATION
/NEW/
/18Z TAFS/
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL (VARYING BETWEEN WNW AND ENE) THE
REST OF TODAY, THOUGH A PERIOD OF MORE E-NE WINDS IS POSSIBLE AT
ACT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE RETURNING TO THE NORTH.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO
THAT ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS IS
PARTICULARLY CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF I-35, AND HAVE
PERSISTED VCSH WITHIN D10 FROM 21-02Z. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL
WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, SO THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY
ON WHETHER ACT WILL BE IMPACTED BY ANY NEARBY SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT. HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OUT OF
THE TAF FOR NOW UNTIL WE SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. OVERNIGHT, DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER IN IN RESPONSE TO AN
INCOMING SURFACE HIGH, LEADING TO MINIMAL FOG DEVELOPMENT OUTSIDE
OF LOW-LYING AREAS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD.
PRATER
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 88 70 88 70 95 / 20 10 0 0 0
WACO 90 70 90 65 96 / 10 10 0 0 0
PARIS 85 67 86 64 92 / 20 10 5 0 0
DENTON 88 66 89 66 95 / 20 10 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 87 67 87 66 93 / 20 10 0 0 0
DALLAS 90 71 89 70 97 / 20 10 0 0 0
TERRELL 88 69 87 66 92 / 20 10 0 0 0
CORSICANA 90 71 89 68 95 / 20 10 0 0 0
TEMPLE 91 69 92 65 97 / 10 0 5 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 90 65 90 65 98 / 10 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page