004  
FXUS64 KFWD 232321  
AFDFWD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX  
621 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2024  
   
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
/NEW/  
/TONIGHT AND MONDAY/  
 
HEAT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER WORD MONDAY, WITH VERY FEW  
CHANGES EXPECTED RELATIVE TO TODAY. THE SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL  
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED OVER TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO WILL  
LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY, THOUGH IT DOES APPEAR THE  
CENTER OF THIS FEATURE MAY RETROGRADE VERY SLIGHTLY, PLACING  
NORTH TEXAS ON ITS NORTHWEST FLANK. ALL THINGS BEING EQUAL, THIS  
SHOULD RESULT IN NO NOTICEABLE INCREASES IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES  
MONDAY, THOUGH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 WILL STILL BE  
THE RULE AREAWIDE. THE HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR ROUGHLY THE  
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY  
REMAINS IN EFFECT.  
 
A BRIEF CESSATION OF WIND THIS AFTERNOON TEMPORARILY REDUCED  
NEAR SURFACE MIXING AND FACILITATED A SHORT-LIVED TEMPERATURE  
RISE TO 100 DEGREES AT DFW. THIS WAS THE FIRST 100 DEGREE DAY AT  
DFW SO FAR THIS YEAR, AND IT OCCURRED ABOUT A WEEK BEFORE THE  
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE FIRST OCCURRENCE. MORE OUT OF PERSISTENCE  
THAN ANYTHING ELSE, WENT AHEAD AND MAINTAINED 100 AT DFW IN THIS  
EVENING'S UPDATED GRIDS, BUT WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER FORECAST  
THICKNESSES, WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF THIS KEY REPORTING SITE TOPS  
OUT JUST A DEGREE OR TWO SHY OF THE CENTURY MARK TOMORROW. REST  
ASSURED, THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES FOR US TO  
SEE 100+ READINGS THIS SUMMER. NO OTHER MEANINGFUL CHANGES MADE TO  
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.  
 
BRADSHAW  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
/ISSUED 154 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2024/  
/MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
A STOUT MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK RESULTING IN  
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY. THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL  
TEMPORARILY SHIFT ACROSS WEST TEXAS ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO  
DEEPENING TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. WHILE THIS WON'T  
HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON OUR TEMPERATURES, IT MAY BRIEFLY ALLOW  
INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TO SEND A REMNANT PLAINS STORM  
COMPLEX SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE RED RIVER LATE TUESDAY AND AGAIN  
WEDNESDAY. NONE OF THE MAJOR MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS ANY NOTEWORTHY  
PRECIPITATION MAKING IT INTO NORTH TEXAS, BUT PERHAPS SOME  
INCREASED CLOUD COVER CAN PROVIDE SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF THROUGHOUT  
THE DAY. OTHERWISE, OUR RIDGE WILL EXPAND BACK TO THE EAST LATE  
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  
THIS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS NEAR 100  
EACH AFTERNOON. LIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN  
LESS AFTERNOON MIXING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND SHOULD HELP  
KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. THIS WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES  
ABOVE 105 EACH AFTERNOON AND A LIKELY CONTINUATION OF HEAT  
HEADLINES THROUGH THE WEEK.  
 
DUNN  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
/NEW/  
/00Z TAFS/  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS  
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY, AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES  
TO DOMINATE THE REGION. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN NEW  
MEXICO, COUPLED WITH A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REGION ACROSS THE LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL FACILITATE A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT  
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN  
GENERALLY SOUTHERLY IN DIRECTION, AT SPEEDS AVERAGING 7 TO 10  
KNOTS.  
 
BRADSHAW  
 

 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 79 99 80 99 81 / 0 0 0 0 5  
WACO 76 96 77 97 78 / 0 0 0 0 0  
PARIS 77 97 78 97 78 / 5 5 0 5 10  
DENTON 76 99 78 100 79 / 5 0 0 0 5  
MCKINNEY 77 99 78 99 79 / 5 5 0 0 5  
DALLAS 79 99 80 100 81 / 0 0 0 0 5  
TERRELL 76 97 77 97 77 / 0 0 0 0 5  
CORSICANA 77 98 78 97 79 / 0 0 0 0 5  
TEMPLE 74 96 75 97 76 / 0 0 0 0 0  
MINERAL WELLS 74 98 78 99 79 / 0 0 0 0 5  
 

 
   
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR  
TXZ092>095-103>107-118>123-133>135-145>148-158>162-174-175.  
 

 
 

 
 
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