186
FXUS64 KFWD 041853
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
153 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (20-30% CHANCE) ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE BIG
COUNTRY.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED IN THE BIG COUNTRY
SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
THIS MORNING'S CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH
IN COVERAGE AS THE INFLUENCE OF EDOUARD IS NOW CONFINED TO A MID-
LEVEL WEAKNESS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WEST THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY. WITH THIS WEAKNESS MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH, ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. OVERALL, EXPECT COVERAGE TO REMAIN
LOW (20-30%). GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, HOWEVER,
STORM RELATED WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 30 MPH.
WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS, TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE IN TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S TODAY. SIMILAR TO THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN WEST OF US-281, WHERE MID TO UPPER 30% CAN BE EXPECTED.
BY TOMORROW, NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE LOCATED ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. EASTERLY
FLOW WILL BRING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH TOMORROW'S SHORTWAVE
MOVING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA, A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE BRAZOS VALLEY. SIMILAR TO TODAY,
COVERAGE WILL MAINLY REMAIN BETWEEN 20-30% THROUGH AROUND SUNSET
BEFORE PRECIPITATION DISSIPATES IN THE EVENING. FOR NORTH TEXAS, A
WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
WARMER COMPARED TO TODAY (FRIDAY).
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
ON SUNDAY, A WELL AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL ACROSS MUCH
OF THE PLAINS, LEADING TO A WARMING TREND THAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BRAZOS VALLEY,
HOWEVER, COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN REMAIN LOW.
WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGIT HEAT CAN BE EXPECTED ON LABOR DAY ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS WITH READINGS GENERALLY BETWEEN 100-103 DEGREES.
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS
THANKS TO A MORE HUMID AIRMASS. THIS SAME PATTERN WILL THEN
PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE REFUSES TO MOVE, LEADING NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS UNDER
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS.
THE PERSISTENCE OF THE HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK, LEADING TO A CONTINUED ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER THREAT ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO AROUND 30% EACH
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR RAPID SPREAD, HOWEVER, THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE STARTS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES, WITH
GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 5-10KTS. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT IS NOTED EAST OF D10 AND WACO, WITH AN EXPECTED
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL
INSOLATION COMMENCES IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING'S CLOUD DECK.
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AROUND WACO
TOMORROW MORNING, AMIDST MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY SATURATION THAT
DOES OCCUR WILL BE CONFINED TO LOW-LYING, SHELTERED AREAS. THUS,
CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES TAF INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 78 99 79 100 / 0 0 0 10
WACO 74 97 75 97 / 0 10 0 10
PARIS 75 99 75 100 / 0 10 0 10
DENTON 74 99 75 100 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 74 99 75 99 / 0 0 0 10
DALLAS 79 100 79 101 / 0 0 0 10
TERRELL 74 98 74 99 / 0 10 0 10
CORSICANA 74 97 75 97 / 0 10 10 10
TEMPLE 72 97 73 97 / 0 10 0 20
MINERAL WELLS 71 100 72 100 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ
AVIATION...DORNSIFE
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