134
FXUS64 KFWD 122320
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
520 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. A FEW STORM MAY BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE WITH SMALL HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS.
- PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE BRAZOS VALLEY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
COOL AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER-50S. AT THE SURFACE,
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS HELPING TO DRAW UP BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. AS
SUCH, AN AREA OF COASTAL STRATUS LOOKS TO NUDGE NORTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE BRAZOS VALLEY BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING.
JUST AHEAD OF THIS CLOUD DECK, PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP THANKS TO
THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE ADVECTION AND SUFFICIENT RADIATIVE
COOLING. WHILE MOST IN THIS AREA WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE CLOUDY
MORNING SKIES, MORE SHELTERED/FOG PRONE AREAS IN ADDITION TO
LOCATIONS THAT REMAIN GENERALLY CLOUD FREE OVERNIGHT MAY SEE
VISIBILITIES DROP INTO THE 1-2 MILE RANGE DUE TO FOG, PARTICULARLY
BETWEEN 5 AM AND 8 AM.
FRIDAY, EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME INCREASINGLY CLOUDY AS OUR NEXT
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THOUGH MOST WILL REMAIN DRY
DURING THE DAY, ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS (20-30% CHANCE) ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS AND NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT,
EVENTUALLY REACHING WEST TEXAS ON SATURDAY. AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT
OVERSPREADS THE REGION AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES, WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. ONE FINAL ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT, PERHAPS JUST TO OUR WEST. THIS ROUND WOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS, WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE IN THE EVENING. THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
AND STORMS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM AS THE UPPER TROUGH MAKES
ITS FINAL DEPARTURE, BUT ALL ACTIVITY WILL EXIT TO THE EAST BY
SUNDAY MORNING.
MOST OF THE REGION WILL RECEIVE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WITH THIS
SYSTEM, WITH RAINFALL TOTALS STILL EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 0.5 AND
1.5 INCHES ON AVERAGE. ISOLATED TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 2" WILL BE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. WE'LL HAVE
TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR MINOR FLOODING FOR ANY AREAS THAT SEE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AND LOW-LYING AREAS.
MOST OF THE RAIN THAT'S EXPECTED WILL BE QUITE WELCOME THOUGH
FOLLOWING OUR PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE AN ISOLATED, CONDITIONAL
THREAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THIS IS CONTINGENT UPON WHETHER WE
DESTABILIZE AND WHEN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS DEVELOP AND
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. IT'S POSSIBLE THESE THINGS WILL NOT
ALIGN OPTIMALLY TO SUPPORT MUCH OF A STRONG/SEVERE THREAT, BUT
WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL NOW THAT WE'RE STARTING TO
GET WITHIN RANGE OF HI-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE/CAMS. IF A THREAT FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DOES MATERIALIZE, THE MAIN THREATS WOULD
BE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND SYSTEM, SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REBOUND INTO THE 70S AND LOW 80S EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 445 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
LOW STRATUS/FOG WILL NUDGE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS AFTER 09Z
TONIGHT. WHILE CLOUD CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR LEVELS BEFORE
REACHING KACT, THERE IS A NARROW WINDOW BETWEEN 14Z AND 17Z WHERE
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20%) FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT THE TERMINAL
AREA. ANY FOG SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF KACT. DESPITE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY, VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTH
FLOW AT 5-10 KNOTS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 75 55 79 62 / 0 0 10 60
WACO 78 57 78 62 / 0 0 0 40
PARIS 69 49 74 59 / 0 10 20 50
DENTON 73 53 79 59 / 0 0 20 70
MCKINNEY 71 53 78 61 / 0 10 20 60
DALLAS 75 56 79 62 / 0 0 10 60
TERRELL 73 54 79 61 / 0 0 10 50
CORSICANA 75 58 80 63 / 0 0 10 30
TEMPLE 79 58 79 62 / 0 0 0 40
MINERAL WELLS 77 54 80 59 / 0 0 10 80
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DARRAH
LONG TERM....BARNES
AVIATION...DARRAH
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