238
FXUS64 KFWD 202313
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
613 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WORKWEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 601 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS DUE TO
ONGOING OUTFLOW MERGERS, FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING TREND LATER THIS
EVENING AS INSTABILITY WANES. AREAS FROM ARLINGTON SOUTHWEST DOWN
TO HAMILTON HAVE RECEIVED BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TODAY, ALONG WITH
THE SHERMAN/DENISON AREA. A FEW STORMS BECAME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN ALSO ACCOMPANIED
SEVERAL OF THESE STORMS, AND POPS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO CAPTURE
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY, LEAVING SOME HOPE FOR
THOSE WHO MISSED OUT THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
THE CONVECTIVE SETUP ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUES TO
EVOLVE THIS EARLY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL REMOVED
FROM OUR AREA BUT A SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. ADDITIONALLY, A SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT IS NOW
POSITIONED JUST WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
SHARPLY FALLING AS YOU PROGRESS WEST. THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
WARM THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS
JUST NOW BEGINNING TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE OVERLAP OF THIS
FORCING WITH THE MOISTURE GRADIENT AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
IS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ALTHOUGH OVERALL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINS MODEST, WITH THE
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY IN PLACE, MULTI-CELL TO LOOSELY ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS WILL BE THE DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE THIS AFTERNOON.
DECENTLY STRONG SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS WILL INCREASE THE
RISK FOR STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY VIGOROUS CONVECTION. A
FEW INSTANCES OF HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT, WITH EXPECTED MAXIMUM
HAIL SIZE CLOSER TO 1".
THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THIS AFTERNOON'S CONVECTION IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. REGARDLESS OF THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON, LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL REMAIN ATOP THE REGION THROUGH
THE NIGHT. IF THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON BECOME COLD-POOL
DOMINANT, SUFFICIENT SUBSIDENCE MAY BE IN PLACE TO REDUCE
TONIGHT'S RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER, IF STORMS REMAIN MORE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED IN NATURE, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAY
MOVE IN FROM OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THE RELATIVE MINIMUM IN INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT, THIS ACTIVITY
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE, HOWEVER, GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE COLD FRONT ITSELF WILL FINALLY BEGIN MAKING MORE MEANINGFUL
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. BY MONDAY, THE FRONT
AND ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD PROVIDE MORE DEFINED
FOCUS FOR RENEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. EXACTLY WHERE THESE
BOUNDARIES SETTLE WILL DICTATE THE CORRIDOR OF HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES. AT THIS TIME, THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF RAIN TOMORROW
WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL EXPERIENCE THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR AND WILL
LIKELY SEE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN PRECIPITATION. STORM THREATS
WILL ONCE AGAIN INCLUDE LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND SMALL HAIL.
CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING AS
INSTABILITY WANES, THROUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORM MAY LINGER
NEAR THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY TUESDAY, HELPING TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. THE HOTTEST WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE BRAZOS
VALLEY, WHERE UPPER 90S ARE EXPECTED. A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL TEXAS,
HOWEVER, COVERAGE WILL LIKELY AT OR BELOW 20%.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY REBUILD DURING THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK, RESULTING IN DECREASING RAIN CHANCES
AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL REMAIN
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH UPPER 90S IN
CENTRAL TEXAS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 601 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE SWEEPING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A COLD FRONT
STRETCHING FROM OK TO NORTHWEST TX. OVERALL COVERAGE REMAINS
FAIRLY LOW, HOWEVER, DUE TO WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND THE LINGERING
PRESENCE OF 590 DECAMETER HEIGHTS AT 500MB. THAT BEING SAID, THERE
APPEARS TO STILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND OUTFLOW MERGERS TO
WARRANT VCTS IN THE DFW METROPLEX TAFS, ALONG WITH A TEMPO -TSRA
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. IT LOOKS AT THIS TIME VCSH WILL
SUFFICE AT KACT WHERE ACTIVITY SEEMS TO ALREADY BE ON A DOWNWARD
TREND. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER 03Z WITH THE LOSS OF
INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER OK SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF ALL TAF SITES.
OVERALL QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE REST OF TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT EASES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA, AND WILL
GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE THE VCSH TO VCTS STARTING 21/21Z. LIGHT NORTH
WINDS AND VFR ARE THEN EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 75 93 75 93 / 40 30 10 10
WACO 75 95 74 96 / 30 30 10 20
PARIS 73 90 72 93 / 40 30 10 10
DENTON 71 93 71 92 / 50 30 10 20
MCKINNEY 72 93 71 93 / 50 30 10 10
DALLAS 77 94 76 94 / 40 30 10 10
TERRELL 74 94 73 95 / 30 30 10 10
CORSICANA 75 94 74 96 / 20 40 10 10
TEMPLE 74 94 73 96 / 30 20 10 20
MINERAL WELLS 68 94 68 91 / 30 30 30 20
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ
AVIATION...30
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