407
FXUS64 KFWD 032344
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
644 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE
MAIN THREATS.
- LOW STORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES IN NORTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
UPDATE:
NUMEROUS STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG DRYLINE
AND COLD FRONT BOUNDARIES POSITIONED THOUGH WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY FILL IN
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT ADVANCES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH
TEXAS. WHILE STORMS ARE INITIALLY PRIMARILY A HAIL THREAT AS THEY
REMAIN DISCRETE, THEY SHOULD HAVE A TENDENCY TO GROW UPSCALE INTO
ONE OR MORE LINEAR SEGMENTS WHICH WILL CAUSE THE PRIMARY HAZARD TO
TRANSITION TO WIND LATER TONIGHT. IN ADDITION, INCREASING
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A SHARP INCREASE IN LOW-
LEVEL SHEAR AND HELICITY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS, SO A BRIEF
WINDOW OF TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY ALSO EXIST THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING PERIOD BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN NOCTURNAL MLCIN
CAN OCCUR. THIS WILL BE MOST RELEVANT FOR CELLS THAT ARE ABLE TO
REMAIN DISCRETE WITH A SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE, WHEREAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED TORNADOES WITHIN A LINE WILL BE LOWER DUE
TO UNFAVORABLE ORIENTATION OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VECTORS.
ASIDE FROM ADJUSTING POPS THROUGH THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS, THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THIS EVENING'S UPDATE,
WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY FORECAST FOR TOMORROW
FOLLOWING TONIGHT'S WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
-STALLEY
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THIS MORNING'S SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS FINALLY
EXITED THE AREA OR DISSIPATED ENTIRELY. THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS OR SO (AROUND
20-30%), AND ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF A
SEVERE THREAT. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
AN UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, AS SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A
DRYLINE WHICH WILL BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE CWA. TOWERING
CUMULUS IS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED TO OUR WEST ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY, SO WE'LL BE WATCHING THIS AREA CLOSELY FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENT OF STORM COVERAGE WITH THIS ROUND OF
CONVECTION. HOWEVER, ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, WITH A LOW BUT
NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT.
OUR NEXT ROUND OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. STORMS WILL INITIALLY BE
DISCRETE BUT WILL GROW UPSCALE INTO CLUSTERS OR PERHAPS A BROKEN
LINE OF STORMS AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST. THE HAIL THREAT WILL BE
HIGHEST WITH ANY INITIALLY DISCRETE STORMS, BUT DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY HAZARD ONCE ANY CLUSTERS/LINE DEVELOPS,
ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY BOWING SEGMENTS. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION AND
EXPECTED STORM MOTION, THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LOW WITH THIS
ROUND OF STORMS. HOWEVER, AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST
WITH ANY RIGHT-MOVING SUPERCELLS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP.
THE LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL SOMEWHERE
ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR/AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WEDNESDAY, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD ONLY BE AROUND 20-40%. THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE LOWER WITH THIS ACTIVITY, AS WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL MAKE ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS RATHER UNLIKELY. HOWEVER, WE
CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG UPDRAFTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. SMALL
HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH TEXAS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
SOUTH/EAST OF THE FRONT, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S IN CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS.
BARNES
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 155 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025/
/WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD/
WEDNESDAY'S STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY AND
LINGER NEAR THE RED RIVER THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR/ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY SKIRT PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND,
AN OPTIMAL SET UP IS EXPECTED FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT IN WESTERN
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA EACH NIGHT BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY BRING SOME OF THIS MCS ACTIVITY
INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING, AND
AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A LOW
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER BOTH DAYS, BUT PERHAPS SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA ON SUNDAY BUT WILL LIKELY STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING OUR PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER TO
CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S AND
WARM/HUMID MORNINGS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
BARNES
AVIATION
/NEW/
/00Z TAFS/
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD IS THE
ARRIVAL OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHWEST IN A FEW
HOURS. UNTIL THEN, BREEZY SOUTH WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 KTS
WILL PREVAIL WITH VFR SKIES. BY 02-03Z, CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ENTERING THE METROPLEX TAF SITES FROM THE NORTHWEST, WITH TSRA
REMAINING IN THE VICINITY THROUGH 07-08Z. SOME STRONG STORMS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD BEFORE CONVECTION MOVES SOUTH OF THE AIRPORTS NO
LATER THAN 09Z. FOR WACO, THE SAME TRENDS CAN BE EXPECTED, BUT
DELAYED A FEW HOURS WITH PEAK CHANCES OCCURRING BETWEEN 07-10Z. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS THROUGH THE AREA AS
WELL, RESULTING IN A MORE PERMANENT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AS
WELL AS POST-FRONTAL MVFR STRATUS LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.
-STALLEY
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. EVEN IF
ACTIVATION IS NOT FORMALLY REQUESTED, ANY REPORTS OF HAZARDOUS
WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE APPRECIATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 71 83 72 88 74 / 80 20 5 20 5
WACO 72 84 72 88 73 / 70 30 5 10 0
PARIS 70 83 69 85 71 / 80 50 5 20 5
DENTON 67 82 68 87 71 / 80 20 5 20 5
MCKINNEY 70 82 69 87 73 / 80 30 5 20 5
DALLAS 71 84 71 87 74 / 80 30 5 20 5
TERRELL 72 85 71 89 73 / 80 40 0 10 0
CORSICANA 74 86 73 90 75 / 70 40 5 10 0
TEMPLE 73 87 72 92 73 / 60 30 5 5 0
MINERAL WELLS 65 83 68 88 71 / 80 10 5 20 5
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ091-092-100>103-115>117-129>131-141.
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