448
FXUS64 KFWD 211131
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
531 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
- SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
- IMPACTFUL WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY
MORNING.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY, WITH A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 103 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
AREAS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, PRIMARILY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THERE
WILL BE A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WILL REMAIN LOW. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAIN CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. MILD
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BOTH TODAY AND THURSDAY, WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. MOST OF THE EFFECTS FROM THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE SEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING, AS LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS
AND THE BIG COUNTRY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM AND DANGEROUSLY COLD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY, WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.
WHAT'S CHANGED?
- PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE STARTING TO COME INTO FOCUS WITH THE
LATEST GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY
TRANSITIONS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
WHAT WE KNOW:
- A STRONG COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT FROM OVERRUNNING WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING, POTENTIALLY CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
- RAIN IS EXPECTED INITIALLY ON FRIDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY
DROP BEHIND THE FRONT. AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX IS EXPECTED, FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO
A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THIS
TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX WILL LIKELY BEGIN DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON IN OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES, IN THE METROPLEX AROUND MID
AFTERNOON, AND CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
- A WARM NOSE WILL BE PRESENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, BUT AS THE
COLD AIR DEEPENS BENEATH THE WARM NOSE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, MUCH OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE A TRANSITION TO
PRIMARILY SLEET. A FULL TRANSITION TO SNOW IS STILL EXPECTED
IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE RED RIVER.
- FREEZING RAIN WILL LIKELY REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE
ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT A TRANSITION TO MOSTLY
SLEET WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON SATURDAY.
- WIDESPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY SATURDAY. ONE FINAL ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SLEET IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR MOST OF
THE AREA WITH THIS LAST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION, WITH THE
TRANSITION LINE TO SNOW LIKELY DIPPING FURTHER INTO NORTH TEXAS.
- SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE REGION HAS A 50-80%
CHANCE OF REMAINING BELOW FREEZING ON MONDAY AS WELL, WITH
TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY NOT CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
MORNING, WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. WIND CHILLS WILL BE COLDEST SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING, FALLING TO 0 TO -10 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
- IMPACTS TO TRAVEL AND INFRASTRUCTURE ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING
FRIDAY AND WILL LIKELY NOT IMPROVE UNTIL MONDAY AT THE VERY
EARLIEST. HAZARDOUS MORNING COMMUTES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY MORNING.
WHAT'S STILL UNCERTAIN:
- HOW QUICKLY THE TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX WILL OCCUR ON
FRIDAY, AND HOW SOON IMPACTS WILL BEGIN ONCE THE TRANSITION
OCCURS.
- THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION TYPE
TRANSITIONS.
- ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE, AS THESE WILL DEPEND ON WHEN, WHERE,
AND HOW QUICKLY ANY TRANSITIONS FROM FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET AND
SNOW OCCUR.
WHAT TO DO:
- MAKE YOUR PREPARATIONS TO YOUR HOME NOW. ENSURE YOU PROTECT ANY EXPOSED
PIPES, AND CHECK IN WITH FRIENDS AND FAMILY.
- CONSIDER ALTERING ANY TRAVEL PLANS THIS WEEKEND.
- START THINKING ABOUT YOUR PLANS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS TRAVEL IMPACTS
WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO AT LEAST MONDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 531 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE THIS MORNING, AND SHOWERS HAVE EXITED TO
THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS. THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR HAS DECREASED
WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE, BUT THERE'S STILL A LOW CHANCE
FOR INTERMITTENT IFR CEILINGS FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE, HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE THE TEMPO GROUP IN THE TAFS FOR
NOW, BUT WE'LL CONTINUE TO ASSESS TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A NORTH WIND SHIFT AND CLEARING SKIES TO
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TO ALL
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE
OCCURS, WITH WIND SPEEDS AOB 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MVFR AND
POTENTIALLY IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR CEILINGS TO
THE EXTENDED DFW TAF AND IFR TO THE KACT TAF. NORTH WINDS WILL
WEAKEN TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 62 39 61 42 / 30 0 0 40
WACO 63 44 65 49 / 50 0 0 20
PARIS 59 37 56 38 / 60 0 0 40
DENTON 62 31 59 36 / 20 0 0 30
MCKINNEY 62 34 59 39 / 30 0 0 40
DALLAS 64 41 62 43 / 40 0 0 40
TERRELL 63 38 61 42 / 60 0 0 40
CORSICANA 64 42 65 48 / 70 0 0 30
TEMPLE 66 42 67 49 / 40 0 0 10
MINERAL WELLS 63 33 63 38 / 0 0 0 20
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-
175.
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM....BARNES
AVIATION...BARNES
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