408
FXUS64 KFWD 012356
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
556 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (20-40% CHANCE) WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 380 THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.
- SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. SOME SEVERE STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING MAY INCREASE NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
IT WAS A CLOUDY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION, BUT SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WARM AND
BREEZY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND SOUTHERLY 10-20 MPH WINDS.
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS OUR
NORTH/NORTHWESTERN BORDER THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT THE
FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO
STALLING, BRINGING A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WITH IT. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP, BUT THE
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXIT/DISSIPATE BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE MAIN CHANGE WITH TODAY'S UPDATE WAS TO LOWER HIGH
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS OUR NORTH/NORTHWEST ZONES,
AS IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD HAVE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER PUSH OF COLDER
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FAIRLY
TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS, BUT ITS EXACT
LOCATION WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS TONIGHT. AREAS
NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT EXPECTED TO
WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
ANOTHER WARM AND BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20
MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH. A
FEW OF OUR BIG COUNTRY COUNTIES COULD SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALL
TO NEAR 30%, RESULTING IN AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR WILDFIRES. HIGHER
HUMIDITY SHOULD KEEP THE FIRE THREAT BELOW ELEVATED LEVELS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT PRECAUTIONS SHOULD STILL
BE TAKEN TO PREVENT ANY WILDFIRE STARTS.
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS SLATED TO BEGIN TUESDAY NIGHT AS
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE, WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. INSTABILITY, DEEP LAYER SHEAR, AND RELATIVELY STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS,
WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM MAY ALLOW
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO PERSIST INTO THURSDAY, BUT WEAKER ASCENT
COULD LIMIT BOTH STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. IT'S POSSIBLE
THURSDAY ENDS UP BEING MOSTLY RAIN-FREE.
ANOTHER SYSTEM IS SLATED TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE WEEK AND WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. A THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY
ACCOMPANY SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY AND WILL BEAR WATCHING THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, THERE'S A FAIRLY STRONG SIGNAL AMONG
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIALLY FLOODING AS WELL, BUT
THE EXTENT OF ANY FLOOD THREAT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS
EARLIER IN THE WEEK AND THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF ANY SUCCESSIVE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. EITHER WAY, ENSURE YOU'RE MONITORING
THE FORECAST THIS WEEK, AS OUR ACTIVE PATTERN IS LIKELY HERE TO
STAY THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND AND POTENTIALLY BEYOND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 549 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING ACROSS THE METROPLEX AND CENTRAL
TEXAS TERMINALS WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO
AROUND 8-12 KTS OVERNIGHT. THE WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OK IS EXPECTED TO SAG INTO NORTH TX LATE
TONIGHT AND STALL NEAR THE HIGHWAY 380 CORRIDOR. THE ASSOCIATED
WIND SHIFT IS NOT LIKELY TO REACH ANY OF THE TAF SITES DURING THE
NEXT 30 HOURS.
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE LOW CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MVFR CIGS (AROUND 1-2 KFT) ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT,
REACHING KACT ~08-09Z AND THE METROPLEX CLOSER TO 11-12Z.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF IFR WINDOW TO WARRANT TEMPO
GROUPS FOR THE D10 TERMINALS FROM 13-15Z WHERE CIGS MAY DIP TO
NEAR OR UNDER 1 KFT BRIEFLY BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO MVFR/VFR BY
LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY. FARTHER SOUTH, KACT AND KGRK SHOULD
PRIMARILY REMAIN MVFR (AROUND 1-1.5 KFT) WITH NO IFR MENTION
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LOW WITH ANY FRONTAL CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO STAY WELL NORTH CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER.
SOUTH WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH SPEEDS NEAR 8-12
KTS, ALONG WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS/SCATTERING OF THE STRATUS IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 59 79 61 83 / 10 10 0 0
WACO 59 80 61 85 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 57 76 58 80 / 20 10 0 10
DENTON 54 76 57 82 / 20 10 0 10
MCKINNEY 57 77 59 82 / 10 10 0 10
DALLAS 61 80 63 84 / 10 10 0 10
TERRELL 56 79 60 82 / 10 10 0 10
CORSICANA 58 82 63 85 / 0 10 0 10
TEMPLE 59 80 61 86 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 56 80 58 86 / 10 10 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM....BARNES
AVIATION...12
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