464
FXUS64 KFWD 061118
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
518 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
THREAT THIS AFTERNOON.
- ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS (20-50% CHANCE) ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY, PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY IN PORTIONS OF EAST AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
- A COLD FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY TAKING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO
MORE SEASONABLE NORMS BY THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
EXPECT A GENERALLY QUIET FORECAST TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSISTING. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON AS ITS PARENT SURFACE LOW AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS. AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH, WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST.
UNFORTUNATELY, LITTLE COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, SO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL STILL CLIMB INTO
THE 70S AND 80S THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT, MID-LEVEL TO UPPER-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
TOMORROW.
EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S
AND 50S AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S. A STOUTER MID-
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW, FORCING THE WEAK FRONT TO RETREAT NORTHWARD
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTH BACK INTO THE REGION. THE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRY AT THIS TIME. BETTER MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH BETTER LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE BEGINNING TO
SPREAD INTO THE REGION, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STORM OR
TWO WILL DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
EXPECT A BIT MORE OF AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ON THURSDAY AS
THE SYSTEM'S SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH SHUNTS A PACIFIC FRONT EAST.
THIS LOW AND ATTENDANT FRONT WILL PROMOTE AN UPTICK IN WIND
SPEEDS AND GUSTS OVER THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EAST ALONG THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. THOUGH THE RAIN WILL MOSTLY EXIT THE
REGION BY LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY, ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO LINGER IN OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
AS THE PACIFIC FRONT SLOWS AND TEMPORARILY STALLS IN FAR EAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL TEXAS.
AFTER ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON EXPECTED ON THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM'S
TRUE COLD FRONT WILL BE USHERED SOUTH LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY IN
RESPONSE TO ANOTHER DIGGING PLAINS SHORTWAVE. THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL END ALL RAIN CHANCES AND WILL BRING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO KICK OFF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXPECT MORNING
LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S AND/OR
60S BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 516 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
VFR PREVAILS AT THE AIRPORTS THIS MORNING, WITH ALL MVFR CIGS
REMAINING TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, WITH VFR PERSISTING OVER THE
NEXT 24-30 HOURS. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT THE TERMINALS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY VEER MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE MORNING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST. THE SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS IS STILL EXPECTED TO
OCCUR AROUND 17Z, WITH NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAILING UNTIL
MID-LATE MORNING TOMORROW. IN THE EXTENDED 30 HOUR TAF PERIOD,
WINDS WILL RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 14-15Z. THIS IS
CURRENTLY COVERED IN THE DFW TAF, AND WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE
OTHER TAFS IN SUBSEQUENT ISSUANCES.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 76 48 78 61 / 0 0 0 40
WACO 79 49 78 63 / 0 0 0 20
PARIS 71 44 72 59 / 0 0 0 40
DENTON 75 42 77 57 / 0 0 0 50
MCKINNEY 75 44 76 60 / 0 0 0 40
DALLAS 76 48 79 62 / 0 0 0 40
TERRELL 76 45 78 61 / 0 0 0 30
CORSICANA 80 49 81 64 / 0 0 0 20
TEMPLE 82 50 80 62 / 0 0 0 20
MINERAL WELLS 78 44 81 56 / 0 0 0 50
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRATER
LONG TERM....PRATER
AVIATION...PRATER
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