057
FXUS64 KFWD 291056
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
556 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
WITH NO CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH MONDAY.
- A PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALLOW DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN LATE TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A
FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SIGNIFICANTLY COMPARED TO OUR CLOUDY
AND COOL SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S AND 80S, ABOUT
20-25 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. A STOUT SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL
RESUME THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE, BEFORE
SPEEDS DECLINE AGAIN IN THE EVENING. AN EVEN WARMER DAY IS
FORECAST ON MONDAY AS WEAK HEIGHT RISES CONTINUE WITHIN ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. WHILE PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE AN
INTRUSION OF MORNING STRATUS, THIS CLOUD DECK WILL QUICKLY ERODE
WITH DAYTIME MIXING, ALLOWING HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER
80S. NO RAIN IS FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
A MUCH MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE THROUGH MOST OF
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS A TRANSITION TO LONGWAVE
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SUPPORTS MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE
OPPORTUNITIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. BY TUESDAY,
A STOUT MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST, MOST OF ITS FORCING REMAINING WELL DISPLACED FROM NORTH
TEXAS. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM'S TRAILING COLD FRONT AND A SHARPENING
WEST TEXAS DRYLINE WILL BE POSITIONED UPSTREAM, BOTH OF WHICH MAY
RESULT IN LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE INITIATION WITH AID FROM A
SUBTLE SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE. ANY SUCH CONVECTION WOULD BE
CAPABLE OF ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CWA TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. THE OVERALL PARAMETER SPACE DOES AT LEAST SUPPORT A
MARGINAL STRONG/SEVERE THREAT, ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL HAZARDS WOULD
DEPEND ON EVENTUAL CONVECTIVE MODE AND ORGANIZATION.
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR DRYLINE CONVECTION LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A RATHER SIMILAR SETUP. HOWEVER, IT
APPEARS THAT THE NEARBY DRYLINE WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY A STRONGER
COLD FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY, AND THIS BOUNDARY
WOULD LIKELY HAVE ITS OWN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT WE'D HAVE TO
CONTEND WITH. BEYOND THURSDAY, THE FORECAST IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS
GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE ON HANDLING THIS FRONT'S
POSITION. SOME MEMBERS KEEP THE AREA COOLER AND POST-FRONTAL
THROUGH THE LATE WEEK PERIOD, WHILE OTHERS RAPIDLY RETREAT IT
NORTHWARD, OPENING THE DOOR FOR ADDITIONAL WARM SECTOR CONVECTION
ON FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY. WHILE THIS PATTERN SHIFT IS GOOD NEWS
IN TERMS OF BRINGING MUCH-NEEDED RAIN TO THE AREA, IT WILL ALSO
LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME DEGREE OF TYPICAL SPRINGTIME
STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE HAZARDS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND A FEW HIGH CLOUDS. DAYTIME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS CAN BE
EXPECTED BEFORE WINDS LESSEN AGAIN THIS EVENING. AN INTRUSION OF
MVFR STRATUS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ON MONDAY MORNING WHICH HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED FOR ARRIVAL AT WACO AROUND 10Z AND IN THE EXTENDED DFW
TAF AROUND 13Z. THIS DECK SHOULD MIX OUT A FEW HOURS LATER, WITH
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS RAMPING UP AGAIN BY MIDDAY MONDAY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 82 62 85 63 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 83 60 85 62 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 80 59 82 61 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 81 58 84 60 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 81 60 84 62 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 82 62 86 64 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 80 60 85 62 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 82 62 87 64 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 81 60 87 62 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 82 56 86 59 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...STALLEY
LONG TERM....STALLEY
AVIATION...STALLEY
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