574
FXUS64 KFWD 122356
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
656 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING, WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY. THE SEVERE THREAT IS LOW, BUT GUSTY
WINDS AND POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED.
- DRIER WEATHER ENTERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE RAIN
AND STORM CHANCES LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S.
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 1134 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025/
/TODAY AND TOMORROW/
A SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN HAS SETTLED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEK. OUR REGION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAKNESS
IN THE MID/UPPER RIDGE, WITH A FEW WEAK TROUGHS INDUCING LIFT
ALOFT. SINCE THERE IS PLENTY OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE TO WORK WITH,
THIS PATTERN FAVORS HIGH CONFIDENCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HOWEVER, THE
WINDS ARE VERY WEAK, SO THE LOCATIONS THAT WILL RECEIVE RAIN ARE
EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO ACCURATELY FORECAST BEYOND A FEW HOURS (AT
BEST). SHOWERS/STORMS ARE GENERALLY DEVELOPING ALONG WEAK SOURCES
OF LIFT, WHICH ARE GENERALLY CREATED BY PREEXISTING SHOWERS/STORMS
IN THE FORM OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/GRAVITY WAVES OR MCVS. WHILE
OUR FORECAST DOES ATTEMPT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FORWARD PROGRESSION
OF THESE FEATURES BY NUDGING POPS UP AND DOWN, WE HAVE PRETTY LOW
CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE SPECIFIC AREAS THAT WILL OR WON'T RECEIVE
PRECIP THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HERE IS THAT ATTEMPT:
THIS MORNING...A MCS MOVED INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS
MORNING AND IS CURRENTLY RAINING ITSELF OUT TO THE NW OF THE
METROPLEX. IT WAS ABLE TO PRODUCE A FEW COLD POOLS/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AS WELL AS AN MCV. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO TREND
DOWNWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE RE-DEVELOPMENT TAKES
PLACE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ACCORDING TO THE 12Z FWD RAOB
SOUNDING, THE ATMOSPHERE IS RELATIVELY UNCAPPED SO IT SHOULDN'T
TAKE MUCH LIFT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE REMNANT BOUNDARIES
LEFTOVER FROM THIS MORNING'S MCS AS SURFACE HEATING DESTABILIZES
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE
BETWEEN 30-50% FOR AREAS NEAR THE BOUNDARIES AND ONLY ABOUT 20%
COVERAGE FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER FROM THE BOUNDARIES (AND LOWEST
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS). IT LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGEST OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/CONVECTIVE TRIGGER LOCATION TODAY WILL BE NEAR THE I-35
CORRIDOR IN NORTH TEXAS THAT EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD
COMANCHE. A FEW WEAKER BOUNDARIES EXIST ACROSS EAST AND CENTRAL
TEXAS THAT WILL ALSO TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL DATA DOES NOT INDICATE ANOTHER NOCTURNAL MCS
DEVELOPING, BUT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE DOES KEEP AT LEAST SOME
SHOWERY ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NIGHT PRIMARILY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA (A FEW COUNTIES EITHER WAY OF I-35).
TOMORROW...SIMILAR TO TODAY, WHATEVER ACTIVITY LINGERS INTO THE
MORNING SHOULD WEAKEN/DISSIPATE IN THE LATE MORNING WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MOST
FAVORED AREA FOR 30-50% COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EAST TEXAS, WITH LOWER CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
THREATS/HAZARDS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK AND THE CAPE IS
RELATIVELY SKINNY, SO THE SEVERE THREAT IS LOW. THE MOST FAVORED
LOCATION FOR STRONG TO BORDERLINE SEVERE WINDS WILL BE ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF DOWNBURSTS. EVEN THEN, THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER
IS QUITE LOW. THE DOWNSIDE TO THIS ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE IS THAT IT
DOES FAVOR HEAVY RAIN WITH THE DEEP CONVECTIVE CORES THAT MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. GIVEN THE WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AND
PRODUCE VERY HIGH RAINFALL OVER A LOCALIZED AREA.
TEMPS/HEAT INDEX...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
THE NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. HOWEVER, THE HUMIDITY WILL
DRIVE HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE LOW 100S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. A
FEW SPOTS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL LIKELY REACH
THE 105 MARK THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW. WHICH LOCATIONS ECLIPSE
THIS MARK WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON PRECIPITATION, SO WE DO NOT
PLAN TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF WHERE TO
PLACE AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
BONNETTE
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 1134 AM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025/
UPDATE:
NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION AT THIS
TIME, BUT WE DID WANT TO HIGHLIGHT THAT A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR THE EASTERN PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. OUR CURRENT FORECAST HAS HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105-110
FOR MOST OF THE AREA EAST OF I-45/I-35E ON BOTH DAYS.
BONNETTE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD/
THE SOUTHWEST RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AS THE TROUGH
HEADS FOR THE DEEP SOUTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, LOWERING THE RAIN
CHANCES AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS WEEKEND,
BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUNDAY. RAIN
CHANCES MAY INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE WEEKEND AS A TROPICAL WAVE
ROTATES AROUND THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE. THIS WAVE WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS ON SATURDAY, THEN NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE
REGION. THE RIDGE WILL EXPAND WEST AGAIN ON MONDAY, WHICH SHOULD
BRING NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON SEABREEZE-
INDUCED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
30
AVIATION
/NEW/
/00Z TAFS/
A CHAOTIC SURFACE PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS TONIGHT AND INDEED THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z WEDNESDAY, WITH
MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM TODAY'S CONVECTION LINGERING
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS EXITED
THE IMMEDIATE D10 AREA, AND WITH RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES PROVIDING
WEAK CONVERGENCE WELL SOUTH OF THE DFW REGION, AM DOUBTFUL OF ANY
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. A BROKEN AXIS OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAS NOW MOVED SOUTHEAST OF WACO, WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS REMAINING IN THAT AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z. SOME CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT MAY EXIST IN THE WACO AREA THROUGH
09Z, BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE MENTION.
OUTSIDE THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF D10, VFR SKY CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, AND THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY. A
SHIELD OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONSTITUTING THE DEBRIS
FROM TODAY'S CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AT ALL TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT.
WIND DIRECTIONS AND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ERRATIC AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z WEDNESDAY, OWING TO VERY WEAK LARGER SCALE
SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERNS AND THE PRESENCE OF NUMEROUS LEFTOVER
BOUNDARIES. BY AND LARGE, A LIGHT NORTHERLY THROUGH EASTERLY FLOW
REGIME SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS D10 THROUGH ABOUT 02-03Z, AFTER
WHICH PRACTICALLY ANY DIRECTION IS POSSIBLE AT THE DFW SITES
OVERNIGHT, ALBEIT AT SPEEDS MOSTLY LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. NORTHWEST
WINDS AT WACO SHOULD GIVE WAY TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS
AFTER 03Z. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RETURN TO LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST
CONDITIONS WITHIN D10 AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY
PARTICULAR WIND DIRECTION IS NOT GREAT AT THIS TIME, DUE TO THE
ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE REGION.
BRADSHAW
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 77 93 78 97 79 / 30 30 5 10 5
WACO 75 94 76 95 77 / 20 30 10 20 5
PARIS 73 91 73 94 75 / 20 20 10 10 5
DENTON 73 93 74 97 77 / 30 30 5 10 5
MCKINNEY 74 93 74 96 77 / 30 30 5 10 5
DALLAS 77 95 78 98 80 / 30 30 5 10 5
TERRELL 74 93 74 95 76 / 20 30 10 20 5
CORSICANA 76 96 76 97 78 / 20 30 10 20 5
TEMPLE 74 96 75 97 75 / 20 30 10 20 5
MINERAL WELLS 72 95 73 99 75 / 30 20 5 10 5
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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