246
FXUS64 KFWD 301039
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
539 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY QUIET AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW RAIN CHANCES (~10-20%
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST).
- SCATTERED STORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA-WIDE TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS IN THE PROCESS OF TRAVERSING
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER ALONG A
DRYLINE IN WEST TEXAS HAS PUSHED INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA BUT IS
QUICKLY LOSING ITS INTENSITY AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
INHIBITION. THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE WARM AND QUIET
WITH A STEADY STREAM OF HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE A LITTLE FARTHER EAST DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS A RESULT, A SURFACE LOW WILL
DEEPEN OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A DRYLINE PUSHING
INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS DURING PEAK HEATING. WHILE LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE LARGELY REMOVED FROM OUR AREA,
MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN CAPPING
IS WEAKEST. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA, BUT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS COULD DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS. WE'LL MAINTAIN SOME VERY LOW POPS ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND WARMING 850 MB TEMPS
SHOULD LEAD TO A WARM DAY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH HIGHS SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. ANY ONGOING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT WITH A WARM AND QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.
DUNN
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH READINGS IN THE MID 90S AS MID LEVEL RIDGING EXPANDS
FROM THE NORTHERN GULF INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGING WILL
BE WEAK THOUGH FEATURING WEAK EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH 600 MB WHICH
WILL ALLOW PW VALUES TO STEADILY CLIMB THROUGH TUESDAY. SCATTERED
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND MAY SPREAD INLAND IMPACTING OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES, BUT
SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. COVERAGE EACH DAY WILL
STILL ONLY BE ABOUT 20-30% DRIVEN MAINLY BY STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING. BY THE END OF THE WEEK AN UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD INTO WEST TEXAS WITH THE STRONGER RIDGING BEING SHUNTED
EASTWARD. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN RAIN
CHANCES FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DUNN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY WITH CIGS AROUND 15,000 FT BUT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE'LL MAINTAIN ONE LINE VFR TAFS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15 KT. OTHER THAN THE HIGHER
CLOUD COVER, NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 93 75 95 75 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 92 73 92 73 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 91 74 92 72 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 92 73 94 72 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 92 74 94 73 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 94 76 96 77 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 91 74 94 73 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 93 74 94 74 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 92 70 93 72 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 91 71 95 71 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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