865
FXUS64 KFWD 091002
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
502 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY
WITH AN UPPER LOW AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT. SOME SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY, A FEW OF WHICH MAY
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
- DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
WARMING TREND FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS, WITH
ZONAL TO WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE NORTHERN STREAM, AND THE
SOUTHERN STREAM DIVIDED BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND AN UPPER
LOW OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE INITIATED
NEAR THE NORTHEAST FLANK OF THE LOW WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CWA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY, WHICH MAY GENERATE ISOLATED
CONVECTION BETWEEN NOW AND DAYBREAK. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
EAST OF I-35 WHERE THERE WILL HAVE BEEN JUST ENOUGH TIME FOR
SUFFICIENT GULF MOISTURE RETURN TO TAKE PLACE. ANY STORMS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED IN NATURE AND SUB-SEVERE, THOUGH SOME SMALL
HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFF TO OUR EAST WHERE A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL EXIST, WHICH WILL BE DURING THE DAY
MONDAY WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE ALREADY MOVED OUT OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE EAST TEXAS
COUNTIES DURING THE DAY MONDAY, HOWEVER, IN CASE A FEW ROGUE
STORMS TRY TO BACK-BUILD BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. WEAK
RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL OTHERWISE PROVIDE WARM
WEATHER FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S. IT WILL ALSO BE A TOUCH BREEZY AND HUMID BY AFTERNOON AS THE
BAJA UPPER LOW STARTS TO ADVANCE EAST, THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT NARROWS AND MID 60S DEWPOINTS SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA, BUT OTHERWISE AN OVERALL NICE MONDAY CAN BE EXPECTED.
WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS A NARROW PRESSURE GRADIENT PERSISTS BETWEEN A
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS AND A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED
OVER FLORIDA. HUMID CONDITIONS AND A NORTHWARD SURGE OF LOW CLOUDS
WILL KEEP TUESDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
THE BAJA UPPER LOW WILL ACCELERATE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO,
REACHING WEST TEXAS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT
WILL COINCIDE WITH AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY TUESDAY LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. ANY STORM WHICH DEVELOPS WOULD HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF
BECOMING SEVERE (WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE) BASED
ON THE UNSTABLE AND HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. THE
MITIGATING FACTOR WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A WARM LAYER OR "CAP" ABOVE
THE SURFACE, WHICH WOULD START AROUND 850 MB BEFORE RISING TO
AROUND 700 MB BY MID AFTERNOON. UPDRAFTS WOULD NEED TO OVERCOME
THE CAP TO ACCESS THIS ENERGY, SO POPS WILL BE KEPT IN THE CHANCE
TO SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
MORE EXPLOSIVE AND WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS
THE BIG COUNTRY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE. DISCRETE
CELLS WHICH MAY MOVE EAST OF THE DRYLINE WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY ENTER AREAS
NEAR AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED
SHEAR VECTORS ESSENTIALLY AT ALL LAYERS FROM SURFACE TO 1 KM UP TO
SURFACE TO 6 KM WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RAPID CELL MERGERS, QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING STORMS INTO A LINEAR MODE NEAR THE WESTERN BORDER OF
OUR FORECAST AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. DAMAGING WINDS
SHOULD BECOME THE PRIMARY THREAT AS THIS LINE PUSHES EAST TO NEAR
THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY MIDNIGHT.
A RAPID DROP IN INSTABILITY AND A RE-STRENGTHENING OF THE CAP
SHOULD CREATE A WEAKENING TREND AS STORMS PUSH ACROSS AND EAST OF
I-35 AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW LINE SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS MAY
STILL OCCUR, BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL DECREASE AS STORMS
CONTINUE EASTWARD TOWARDS EAST TEXAS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP THE
FLOOD THREAT LOW, BUT TRAINING STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL
INEVITABLY CAUSE FLOODING SOMEWHERE ON A LOCALIZED SCALE.
THE UPPER LOW ITSELF WILL PASS OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY, BUT THE
COLD CORE ALOFT AND RESULTING STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY LEAD TO SMALL
HAIL IN A FEW OF THESE STORMS. THAT BEING SAID, THERE IS A BRIEF
WINDOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR EAST TEXAS AND EASTERN
CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES, WHEN THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD WILL COINCIDE
WITH THE PASSING OF A COLD FRONT. SOME STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ALL
ACTIVITY EXITS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AROUND A
WEEK FROM TODAY, BUT SHOULD PASS THROUGH PRECIPITATION-FREE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 500 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
AN EXPANSIVE SWATH OF IFR EXTENDING ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
ATLANTIC CITY, NJ TO MIDLAND, TX, ENVELOPED KACT A FEW HOURS AGO,
AND JUST RECENTLY BEGAN AFFECTING EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE DFW METROPLEX. THIS IS LOWER THAN THE MVFR WE WERE INITIALLY
EXPECTING LAST NIGHT, AND WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING AND SCATTERING WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING. BECAUSE THE METROPLEX IS STILL ON THE EDGE OF THE IFR
DECK, WILL HANDLE IT WITH PREVAILING MVFR AND A TEMPO GROUP FROM
13-16Z FOR IFR. THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT THE DENSE FOG AND
ASSOCIATED LIFR IN THE AUS/SAT AREAS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF KACT,
BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR METAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS ACROSS CENTRAL
TX OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ONCE CONDITIONS IMPROVE 17-19Z, VFR
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ANOTHER
IFR/MVFR DECK SHOULD ARRIVE TUESDAY MORNING AROUND 09Z AT KACT AND
12Z IN THE DFW AREA.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 83 67 80 63 / 10 10 50 90
WACO 82 67 80 62 / 10 10 40 80
PARIS 78 66 78 62 / 40 20 50 90
DENTON 84 65 78 58 / 10 10 60 90
MCKINNEY 81 67 78 62 / 10 10 50 90
DALLAS 83 68 81 64 / 10 10 50 90
TERRELL 82 67 80 62 / 20 10 50 80
CORSICANA 84 69 83 66 / 10 10 40 80
TEMPLE 83 67 81 62 / 0 10 40 80
MINERAL WELLS 86 65 81 57 / 0 10 60 90
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...30/MB
LONG TERM....30/MB
AVIATION...30/MB
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