627
FXUS64 KFWD 230040
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
740 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 109 EXPECTED
- HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND WEEKEND
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 726 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
VERY HOT DAY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE LOW TO MID 100S AND MAX HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105 TO 120.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN TO COOL BACK DOWN THIS EVENING AND THE
EXTREME HEAT WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8PM AS SCHEDULED. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY AS
A BACKDOOR "COLD" FRONT BRINGS SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE
REGION. HOWEVER, IT WILL STILL BE QUITE HOT AND A HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO
ONGOING HAZARDS. REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES, A FEW ISOLATED SMALL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPED UP ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN HALVES OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, BUT MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING - AND
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT.
SHAMBURGER
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING DANGEROUS HEAT TO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE
ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S AS OF MIDDAY, WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES ALREADY BETWEEN 105-110 DEGREES FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK BETWEEN 100-105 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH DEW POINTS ONLY MIXING OUT INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN PEAK
INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 120 DEGREES, MAKING FOR RATHER
DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORY
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND THE EXTREME HEAT
WARNING WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE FANNIN, DELTA, AND LAMAR COUNTIES.
IT WILL BE BEST TO LIMIT TIME SPENT OUTDOORS THIS AFTERNOON.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT WILL UNFORTUNATELY OFFER LITTLE TO NO
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT TODAY. DESPITE STRONG SUBSIDENCE BENEATH THE
UPPER RIDGE, THERE REMAINS A LOW (10-20% CHANCE) FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
SUBTLE SHIFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO TURN THE INTENSE HEAT DOWN JUST A
TAD, WITH MUCH OF THE AREA ACTUALLY REMAINING BELOW 100 DEGREES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE FRONT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DRIER AIR TO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, MOISTURE
AHEAD OF TS BERTHA IN THE GULF WILL ADVECT INLAND THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, RESULTING IN HIGH HUMIDITY AND PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN
100-109 DEGREES. AS A RESULT, A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOLLOWING A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE INTENSE HEAT WE'RE CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT OVER THE
WEEKEND, RESULTING IN THE RETURN OF WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES. A SHORTWAVE OR TWO MAY ROUND THE UPPER RIDGE INTO
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND BUT WILL BE RATHER INCONSEQUENTIAL
OUTSIDE OF PERHAPS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. HEAT
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND AND PERHAPS INTO
NEXT WEEK FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA (PRIMARILY NORTH TEXAS) AS HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB ABOVE 105 DEGREES ON A DAILY
BASIS. THERE IS NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END
OF THE MONTH, SO THE DOLDRUMS OF SUMMER APPEAR TO BE UPON US AS WE
CLOSE OUT THE MONTH OF JULY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 726 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS TAF PERIOD WITH JUST A FEW HIGH
BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS AND NORTHEAST WINDS TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 80 100 80 98 / 10 0 0 0
WACO 80 98 79 95 / 10 0 0 0
PARIS 74 94 75 93 / 0 0 0 10
DENTON 78 99 78 99 / 10 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 77 97 77 96 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 80 100 80 99 / 10 0 0 0
TERRELL 77 97 77 96 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 78 98 79 96 / 10 0 0 0
TEMPLE 81 99 79 95 / 20 0 10 0
MINERAL WELLS 78 100 76 98 / 10 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-130>135-143>148-157>162-174-175.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ100>105-115>123-
130>135-143>148-157>162-174-175.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ129-141-142-156.
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM....BARNES
AVIATION...SHAMBURGER
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