820
FXUS64 KFWD 180148
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
848 PM CDT SAT AUG 17 2019
UPDATE
UPSTREAM CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS CONTINUES TO WANE WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION NEAR ABILENE WAS
PURELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WERE REACHED,
AND IS DISSIPATING MUCH MORE QUICKLY THAN CONVECTION IN SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WHICH WAS AIDED BY ASCENT FROM A WEAK SHORTWAVE. THE
LATTER DYNAMICALLY-AIDED CONVECTION WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO
WEAKEN THIS EVENING. SOME SILENT 10% POPS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN AND RED RIVER COUNTIES TO HANDLE THE SMALL CHANCE
THAT LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SURVIVES INTO THE CWA PRIOR TO
ITS DEMISE.
OTHERWISE, HAVE NUDGED SKY COVER UPWARDS ACROSS THE PREVIOUSLY
DISCUSSED AREAS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF ANVIL CIRRUS WHICH MAY
LINGER OVERNIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 70S OR
AROUND 80 OVERNIGHT.
-STALLEY
AVIATION
/ISSUED 630 PM CDT SAT AUG 17 2019/
/00Z TAFS/
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT THE DFW
METROPLEX, WITH ONLY A SLIM CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT WACO ON
SUNDAY MORNING. WACO'S SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR WILL CONTINUE TO BE
HANDLED WITH A SCT GROUP FOR THE TIME BEING, BUT CIGS MAY NEED TO
BE TEMPO'D DEPENDING ON OVERNIGHT TRENDS. MEANWHILE, CONVECTION
IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS, BUT THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SUBSIDE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ITS ONLY CONTRIBUTION AT THE
TAF SITES MAY BE A SMALL INCREASE IN REMNANT ANVIL CIRRUS LATER
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA,
BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE DISPLACED FAR FROM THE TAF SITES.
-STALLEY
DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 326 PM CDT SAT AUG 17 2019/
NOT A GREAT DEAL OF CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR OUR REGION OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS AS WE'LL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STOUT MID
LEVEL RIDGE. AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL ENCOURAGE A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
THROUGH NORTH TEXAS AND WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WE'LL BE WATCHING A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. A FEW
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN EXPANDING CUMULUS FIELD
ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS, BUT ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD
REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA. THERE ARE ALSO SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS WHICH HAVE BEEN SPREADING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN EAST OF
THE REGION.
GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE ACROSS THE EAST AND FAIRLY
STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WE'LL
LIKELY SEE A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF MORNING CLOUD COVER ON
SUNDAY, PARTICULARLY EAST OF I-35. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY SHOULD
FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND CONTINUED HOT CONDITIONS. WE'LL
CONTINUE WITH THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH THIS MAY
NEED TO BE EXPANDED INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS RELATIVELY BENIGN WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE STILL IN PLACE, ALTHOUGH IT WILL UNDERGO SOME
WEAKENING AND A GRADUAL SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH MID WEEK. AS IT
DOES, A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
LATE WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD ENCOUNTER A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE AS
IT SPREADS INTO NORTH TEXAS. WE'LL CONTINUE WITH SOME LOW POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. OTHER
THAN THAT LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION, THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
LOOKS DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100
DEGREES. MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO
FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE, BUT THERE'S REALLY NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR A
GOOD MOISTURE INTRUSION INTO NORTH TEXAS OR ANY SYNOPTIC FEATURES
THAT WOULD SUPPORT HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. MOST OF THE RAINFALL LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE FARTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DUNN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 81 101 81 101 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
WACO 80 100 79 101 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
PARIS 77 96 77 97 77 / 5 0 5 0 5
DENTON 80 101 79 101 79 / 5 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 80 99 79 100 79 / 5 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 81 101 81 101 81 / 0 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 79 98 79 102 79 / 0 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 79 99 77 98 77 / 0 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 78 100 77 99 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 78 102 77 101 76 / 0 0 0 0 5
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
26/24
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