909
FXUS64 KFWD 140712
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
212 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
EARLY THIS MORNING AS A DECAYING COMPLEX MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE
RED RIVER.
- MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE IN
THE DAY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NORTH
AND CENTRAL TX. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
AN EXPANSIVE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM EASTERN NEW
MEXICO TO CENTRAL MISSOURI AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD SURGING COLD
FRONT. SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PRECEDE THE ONGOING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH A GENERAL MOTION TOWARDS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. THE APPROACHING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO PROGRESS INTO OUR REGION, FUELED BY A HEALTHY LOW-
LEVEL JET ENHANCING VERTICAL FORCING ALONG THE INDIVIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES.
AS THE STORMS CROSS THE RED RIVER THIS MORNING, EXPECT A
CONTINUED SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION TO THE CLUSTER OF STORMS WITH
LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN THREATS.
ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS REMAINS LOW, GUSTY
WINDS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH CAN STILL PRODUCE DAMAGE TO ANY LOOSE
ITEMS. BY EARLY AFTERNOON, THE STORM CLUSTER OR CLUSTERS WILL
LIKELY BECOME LESS ORGANIZED WITH REMNANT OUTFLOWS GENERALLY SOUTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
TODAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON YOUR LOCATION WITH
RESPECT TO THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND COLD FRONT. FOR NORTH TEXAS,
GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE THUNDERSTORMS,
AFTERNOON HIGHS WERE DECREASED BY 1-2 DEGREES COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 80S WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS,
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S WILL YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN
99 TO 103 DEGREES.
AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE FRONT MOVE SOUTH, STORM CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH THE FRONT LIKELY STALLING SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR
OVERNIGHT, RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
REGARDING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR TODAY, GIVEN THE SCATTERED
NATURE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS, RAINFALL AMOUNTS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY
OVER SHORT DISTANCES. MOST-LIKELY RAINFALL TOTALS WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.25 INCHES, HOWEVER, SLOW-MOVING STORMS MAY
PRODUCE 2-3" OVER A CONCENTRATED AREA.
OVERNIGHT, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION PRIOR TO SUNRISE. THE EARLY MONDAY MORNING
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS WITH LIGHTNING AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREATS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE AFTER SUNRISE ON MONDAY
AS A SLOW-MOVING SHORTWAVE GENERATES LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT ACROSS OUR REGION. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE STALLED
FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS, THEREFORE, RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE THE HIGHEST FROM WACO TO ATHENS TO PALESTINE. A
FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-30
CORRIDOR DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON MONDAY, HOWEVER,
OVERALL RAIN CHANCES IN NORTH TEXAS WILL RANGE FROM 20-30%.
ON TUESDAY, MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST,
ENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
ADDITIONALLY, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME ESTABLISHED,
SETTING THE STAGE FOR A WARMING TREND AFTER A RATHER "COOL" MONDAY.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. THE
WARMEST DAYS WILL BE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS
IN FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN
100-105 DEGREES.
AS WE APPROACH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST DROPS OFF AS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WOULD INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ONCE
AGAIN AS WELL AS BRING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER. FOR NOW, WE'LL
MAINTAIN A 40-50% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH A CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS,
HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE CHANGING AS WE CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
AS A CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL BE PRECEDED BY A
SOUTHWARD SURGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH WILL GENERATE
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
MOVE INTO THE D10 TAF SITES WITH ON AND OFF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EXPECTED BETWEEN 14-17Z. FOR CENTRAL TEXAS, EXPECT TO SEE A PERIOD
OF MVFR CONDITIONS, HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH OF THE TERMINAL.
HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON, THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING
SOUTH OF THE DFW METROPLEX TAF SITES WITH EN ROUTE TRAFFIC IMPACTS
POSSIBLE. WACO WILL THEN SEE AN INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CLOSER TO 22Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND
SUNSET.
A TEMPORARY LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT. STORMS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED, THEREFORE,
DIRECT IMPACT TO TERMINALS REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ASSESSED IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCE.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 88 70 81 70 / 70 70 50 10
WACO 91 73 81 71 / 40 70 60 40
PARIS 83 68 78 66 / 80 70 50 10
DENTON 86 67 80 67 / 70 60 40 10
MCKINNEY 86 69 79 68 / 70 60 40 10
DALLAS 89 71 82 70 / 60 70 50 10
TERRELL 89 70 80 69 / 50 80 60 20
CORSICANA 91 73 83 72 / 40 80 70 40
TEMPLE 91 74 82 72 / 40 80 70 40
MINERAL WELLS 88 67 80 66 / 70 60 50 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ
AVIATION...HERNANDEZ
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