483
FXUS64 KFWD 251834
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
134 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 90S.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS THIS WEEKEND,
BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.
- A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES
AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
THE PERSISTENT LATE SUMMER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE ITS GRIP
ON THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WORK
AROUND ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY. DESPITE THE WEAKENING RIDGE,
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO KEEP MOST OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS DRY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING MOSTLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. ONE LOW PROBABILITY SCENARIO TO WATCH WILL BE WHETHER
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST PRODUCES A SUFFICIENTLY STRONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY TO PUSH FARTHER EAST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST BEFORE
ACTIVITY DIMINISHES THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON
IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO AROUND 30-40 PERCENT IN SOME AREAS, BUT
MODEST WIND SPEEDS SHOULD KEEP THE OVERALL FIRE WEATHER THREAT
LOW. STILL, HOT TEMPERATURES AND INCREASINGLY DRY FUELS MAY
SUPPORT LOCALLY ELEVATED INITIAL ATTACK POTENTIAL DURING PEAK
HEATING.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
FLATTEN THE RIDGE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, ALLOWING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTHWEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS WEAKER
INSTABILITY AND INCREASING INFLUENCE FROM THE RIDGE WITH
SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENT. ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS LARGELY IN THE 90S. THE WEAKENING RIDGE WILL PROVIDE A
SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS, BUT DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN CONDITIONAL ON
ANY LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONES
BENEATH OTHERWISE MODEST LARGE SCALE FORCING.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE SATURDAY
NIGHT, ENCOURAGING CONVECTION TO PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEAST
INTO/ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
IT APPROACHES, BUT SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY SURVIVE
SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE
QUICKLY WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT, WITH DECREASING PROBABILITIES
EXTENDING TOWARD THE I-20 CORRIDOR. HOW FAR CONVECTION ULTIMATELY
PROGRESSES WILL DEPEND ON ITS ORGANIZATION UPSTREAM, WITH A MATURE
COLD POOL AND SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL INFLOW POTENTIALLY ALLOWING
STORMS TO PERSIST FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT SURVIVE INTO NORTH TEXAS
SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL SERVE AS A TRANSITION BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING RIDGE AND A MUCH MORE ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPING TO
OUR WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS LARGELY
IN THE 90S, WHILE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY RETURNS
DEEPER GULF MOISTURE TO THE REGION. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON NEAR ANY
LINGERING BOUNDARIES, WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER RAIN CHANCES SPREADING
INTO EAST TEXAS BY MONDAY AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND
WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH THE FLOW.
A DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE CALIFORNIA
COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE PIVOTING THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF TWO EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL SYSTEMS SHOULD BECOME
INCREASINGLY DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH,
SUPPLEMENTING THE RETURNING GULF MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BEGIN INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS LEADING DISTURBANCES APPROACH, BUT TUESDAY SHOULD LARGELY SERVE
AS THE TRANSITION INTO THE WETTER MIDWEEK PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. AS THE TROUGH ADVANCES EAST, SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS AND AN
ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT WILL PROVIDE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES
CURRENTLY PEAKING WEDNESDAY. INCREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
FOLLOWED BY THE EVENTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD ALSO FINALLY BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN FROM THE PERSISTENT ABOVE-NORMAL READINGS OF
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.
THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY HOW NEXT WEEK’S
SYSTEM EVOLVES, PARTICULARLY REGARDING THE SPEED, DEPTH, AND
TRAJECTORY OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE
SCENARIOS RANGING FROM A MORE PROGRESSIVE AND NORTHERLY TROUGH
WITH LOWER RAINFALL TOTALS TO A DEEPER, SLOWER SYSTEM CAPABLE OF
MAINTAINING RICH MOISTURE AND FORCING OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
FOR A LONGER PERIOD. THUS, CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER THAT A
WETTER AND EVENTUALLY COOLER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP THAN IN EXACTLY
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL OR HOW LONG PRECIPITATION WILL
PERSIST. FOLLOWING NEARLY TWO MONTHS OF PREDOMINANTLY BELOW-NORMAL
RAINFALL, THIS PATTERN MAY OFFER THE FIRST OPPORTUNITY FOR
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS IN
QUITE SOME TIME, BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW
THESE FEATURES ULTIMATELY INTERACT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 5-7 KTS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO
THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOULD REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE TERMINALS. NO SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE CURRENT PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 73 95 75 96 / 0 0 10 30
WACO 70 95 72 97 / 0 0 0 10
PARIS 67 92 69 95 / 0 0 0 20
DENTON 70 95 72 97 / 0 0 10 30
MCKINNEY 68 94 70 96 / 0 0 10 20
DALLAS 73 95 75 97 / 0 0 10 20
TERRELL 68 94 70 96 / 0 0 0 20
CORSICANA 68 93 71 95 / 0 0 0 10
TEMPLE 70 95 71 98 / 0 0 0 10
MINERAL WELLS 70 95 70 98 / 0 10 10 30
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12
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