615
FXUS64 KFWD 072026 AAA
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
326 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2020
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 213 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2020/
/REST OF THE DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
RADAR LOOP OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS CONTINUES TO SHOW A GENERAL
WEAKENING TREND ON THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER THAT IMPACTED MOST OF
CENTRAL AND EAST TX THIS MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS THEY WERE THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER, WE'RE SEEING ADDITIONAL ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING TO THE WEST. THESE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN THAT MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE GOOD NEWS
IS THAT THIS AREA FROM COMANCHE TO CAMERON DIDN'T RECEIVED MUCH
RAIN THIS MORNING. THE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLUSTER WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS
DOESN'T MEAN THAT THE RAIN IS DONE FOR THE DAY. THERE'S STILL
PLENTY OF MOISTURE (PWS VALUES IN THE 2+") AND ENOUGH SYNOPTIC
ASCENT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. POPS
WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST, BUT WE'RE KEEPING LOW POPS (20%) MAINLY TO AREAS EAST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE, ANOTHER WARM NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TX, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT IT WON'T BE AS INTENSE AND WIDESPREAD AS TUESDAY.
WHILE THE BEST CHANCES ARE FOR OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES, WE CAN'T
RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH TX.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S,
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES CLOSER INTO OUR AREA.
SANCHEZ
LONG TERM
/NEW/
/THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK/
THE MAIN THEME IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS HEAT THIS WEEKEND. IT'S PROBABLE THAT WE
WILL BE LOOKING AT THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS OF THE YEAR THUS FAR.
OVERALL, THE CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN IN THE EXTENDED IS LESS THAN 5%.
THE UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DEPART
EASTWARD INTO THE MID-SOUTH. IN ITS WAKE, MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD EASTWARD SOME. WHILE BRISK NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WOULD NORMALLY SUGGEST THE THREAT FOR NOCTURNAL COMPLEXES, THERE
SIMPLY DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY APPRECIABLE LIFTING MECHANISMS
FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH, THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
RAIN-FREE. A SLIGHT WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND FIELD MAY ALLOW
US TO MIX OUT SOME MOISTURE DURING THE AFTERNOON ON MOST DAYS,
BUT IT'S LOOKING PROBABLE THAT IT'LL FEEL QUITE OPPRESSIVE. THE
WORST OF THE HEAT AND HIGH HUMIDITY IS ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 105 DEGREES. AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURES
MAY CLIMB TO NEAR OR ABOVE RECORD NORMALS (OVER 103 DEGREES) WITH
DANGEROUS HEAT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS
SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
UNFORTUNATELY, IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE FRONT WILL BRING A TON
OF RELIEF (THOUGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER) AS THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS EAST TEXAS. THE
LATEST GFS DOES PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH THROUGH OUR AREA AND WHILE
NOT UNHEARD OF (A MID-SUMMER COLD FRONT), IT APPEARS UNLIKELY. THE
ECMWF OFFERS A SOLUTION THAT IS MUCH MORE IN STEP WITH
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS AND KEEPS THIS BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA.
WITH THAT IN MIND, I'LL KEEP THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
RAIN/STORM-FREE.
BAIN
AVIATION
/ISSUED 213 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2020/
/18Z TAFS/
CONCERNS...ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND LINGERING MVFR
CIGS ACROSS NORTH TX. POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND LOW CIGS AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING.
A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TX. THE
ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST TX ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. WE
KEPT VCTS FOR WACO THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON, AS WE ARE SEEING
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST. THERE'S STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND LIFT AVAILABLE FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MOST OF THE DFW METROPLEX SITES HAVE
REMAINED DRY THIS MORNING, BUT WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY NEARBY AND
DAYTIME HEATING, THERE'S STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED STORMS
ACROSS THIS AREA. FOR NOW, WE WILL CONTINUE THE VCTS FOR ALL DFW
METROPLEX SITES DURING THE 20-00Z TIME PERIOD.
A QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONLY CONCERN IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS
THAT THE LLJ WILL BRING SOME OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO
OUR AREA, BUT IT MIGHT STAY JUST EAST OF THE TAF SITES. WE
INTRODUCED MVFR FOR ACT AT 13Z , BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IT IN THE METROPLEX SITES. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SANCHEZ
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 75 95 78 96 78 / 20 10 0 0 0
WACO 75 94 77 97 76 / 30 5 0 0 0
PARIS 72 88 75 92 76 / 20 40 5 0 5
DENTON 75 95 77 96 77 / 20 10 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 75 93 77 95 77 / 30 20 0 0 0
DALLAS 77 95 79 96 78 / 30 10 0 0 0
TERRELL 75 92 76 94 75 / 40 20 0 0 0
CORSICANA 75 92 76 94 76 / 30 20 0 0 0
TEMPLE 74 96 76 97 75 / 30 5 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 73 96 76 97 75 / 20 5 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
24/17
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page