576
FXUS64 KFWD 091913
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
213 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED STORMS (20%) MAY DEVELOP WEST OF I-35 THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS.
- THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS RETURNS TO MUCH
OF NORTH TX THURSDAY, PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FEW
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MOST
AREAS RAIN-FREE THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WHICH
WILL HELP PROMOTE ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION (20%) MAINLY WEST OF
I-35 THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS IS EMBEDDED IN SLIGHT
HEIGHT WEAKNESSES ALOFT IN THE BROADER SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE,
WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE PREVAILING FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. ANY
STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BRING A THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS,
WITH CONVECTION DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. PEAK TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 90S ACROSS CENTRAL TX TO NEAR
102 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF NORTH TX. HEAT INDICES ARE IN THE TRIPLE
DIGITS FOR MANY LOCATIONS ALREADY, AND WILL CLIMB UP TO 108 THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM.
SOME CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY FOR THURSDAY, WITH A LOW-AMPLIFIED,
POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HAS
SENT A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
THE POSITION OF THE FRONT CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL KANSAS. THE FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS OKLAHOMA TONIGHT, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR NORTH.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE MODIFIED BY THE EXPECTED
CONVECTION, AND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE FRONT LOOKS TO BE
SENT SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, PROVIDING A FOCUS
FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS. ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THIS OCCURRING, BUT AS THE ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH
SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY, AND THE OUTFLOW IS SENT SOUTHWARD,
SCATTERED STORMS (20-50%) ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS MID-
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE HIGHEST STORM CHANCES OF 60% WILL
BE CONFINED TO THE RED RIVER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT,
WITH ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER UNLIKELY. COVERAGE WILL TAPER
OFF IN THE EVENING WITH LINGERING ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. IN TERMS OF RAINFALL,
SPOTTY COVERAGE WILL MAKE FOR A FEW LUCKY FOLK THAT GET BENEFICIAL
DOWNPOURS, BUT UNFORTUNATELY, RAINFALL IS NOT A GUARANTEE FOR
ANYONE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW. WITH THE POTENTIAL INFLUENCE
OF CLOUD COVER AND THUNDERSTORMS, ANY HEAT ADVISORY FOR THURSDAY
WILL BE ASSESSED OVERNIGHT WHEN THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
WHICH AREAS MAY MEET CRITERIA.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
ISOLATED STORM CHANCES WILL LINGER FRIDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
WITH CONTINUED WEAKNESS IN HEIGHTS ALOFT, WITH RAIN CHANCES THEN
SHUTTING OFF SATURDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
EXPAND AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH MORE HOT AND DRY WEATHER
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID 90S UP TO 103 DEGREES FOR THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. NOT ALL HOPE IS LOST (BUT DON'T GET
EXCITED YET, EITHER), WITH A COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY MOVING INTO
THE PLAINS AGAIN IN ABOUT A WEEK'S TIME. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL
HIGHLIGHTS 25TH-75TH PERCENTILE MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S TO 102
DEGREES. SO IT'S MOST LIKELY NO SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN IS ON THE
WAY, BUT THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL LOW RAIN CHANCES LATE NEXT
WEEK. THIS IS OUTSIDE OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PERIOD, SO DON'T
GET ANY HOPES UP YET, BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THE REST OF TODAY WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS
AROUND 5,000-7,000 FT DEVELOPING AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. ANY
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE DISPLACED FROM THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RESULTING IN A
TEMPORARY WIND SHIFT AT THE WESTERN D10 TAF SITES OR AT KACT,
ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE IS VERY LOW. OUTSIDE OF ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERFERENCE, WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND
8 TO 12 KTS.
FOR THURSDAY PM, THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IMPACTING D10 HAS
INCREASED, WITH A MENTION OF VCTS NOW INTRODUCED IN DFW'S EXTENDED
TAF AT 21Z. ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE EXISTING ALONG THE RED RIVER DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. THIS COMPLEX WILL LIKELY PUSH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
TOWARDS THE D10 SITES WITH A TEMPORARY SHIFT FOR SOME OR ALL TAF
SITES TO THE NORTH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS,
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT. ANY
STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR ERRATIC, GUSTY WINDS
GREATER THAN 30 KTS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 80 100 79 99 / 0 40 40 10
WACO 77 99 77 99 / 0 10 10 10
PARIS 76 98 74 96 / 0 40 30 40
DENTON 78 99 76 99 / 0 50 40 10
MCKINNEY 77 98 75 97 / 0 40 40 20
DALLAS 80 101 80 100 / 0 30 40 10
TERRELL 76 99 75 98 / 0 20 40 20
CORSICANA 76 98 76 98 / 0 10 10 10
TEMPLE 75 99 75 100 / 0 10 10 10
MINERAL WELLS 74 100 73 100 / 10 50 40 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-131>135-144>148-157>162-174-175.
SHORT TERM...GORDON
LONG TERM....GORDON
AVIATION...GORDON
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