205
FXUS64 KFWD 051041
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
541 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
UPDATE:
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS
UPDATE. TODAY WILL FEEL QUITE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, WITH HOT
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS EXPECTED. AS RIDGING
CONTINUES TO SET IN FOR THE WEEK, A HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED ACROSS NORTH & CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY.
GORDON
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN HOT AND RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDWEEK. WEATHER SIMILAR TO TODAY WILL
DOMINATE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS TEMPERATURES ALSO TAKE ON A
SLIGHT WARMING TREND WITH THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE. HIGHS TUESDAY
WILL CLIMB MOSTLY UP TO 100-102 RANGE, WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS
REACHING 103-104. HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF THE TRUE TEMPERATURES AS DECENT MIXING SHOULD TAKE
PLACE AGAIN TOMORROW. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW SPOTS POTENTIALLY
HITTING THE 105 DEGREE HEAT INDEX CRITERIA FOR AN OFFICIAL HEAT
ADVISORY, MOST AREAS WILL SEE PEAK HEAT INDICES REACHING THE 99 TO
104 RANGE. AS SUCH, THERE ARE NO CURRENT PLANS TO ISSUE A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY, BUT AN ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
WEDNESDAY WITH BOTH TEMPERATURES HITTING THE 103 MARK AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES CLIMBING TO OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA.
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S
TO LOW 80S BEFORE TEMPERATURES QUICKLY CLIMB AGAIN DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO EAST AND CENTRAL TEXAS
DURING THE DAY WILL RESULT IN INCREASED HUMIDITY AND HIGHER HEAT
INDICES IN THESE AREAS THAN TUESDAY. WITH NO RELIEF TO THE HEAT
EXPECTED SOON, ENSURE PRECAUTIONS ARE TAKEN TO PROTECT AGAINST THE
HEAT. NOW IS A GOOD TIME TO CHECK IN ON ANY FRIENDS OR FAMILY
THAT MAY BE VULNERABLE TO THESE TEMPERATURES AND ENSURE
PRECAUTIONS ARE TAKEN THIS WEEK TO STAY HYDRATED AND COOL.
GORDON
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 244 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022/
/THURSDAY ONWARD/
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ONGOING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. A STOUT UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP THE AREA HOT AND
DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER 100 AND HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 100S. OUR CURRENT TEMPERATURE AND HEAT INDEX FORECAST
INDICATES THAT A HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY WITH PARTS OF THE AREA POTENTIALLY REQUIRING AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NO DECISION ON HEAT
HEADLINES HAS BEEN MADE AT THIS TIME, BUT PREPARATIONS TO MITIGATE
HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS LATER THIS WEEK AND THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND
WOULD BE WISE. SPEAKING OF THE WEEKEND, SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
HOTTEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING NUDGES TEMPERATURES EVEN HIGHER THAN THEY WOULD OTHERWISE.
A SLIGHT PATTERN CHANGE IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS WEST. WITH THE ADDITION OF A
WEAK FRONT AND LESS SUBSIDENCE, RAIN CHANCES COULD RETURN FOR SOME
FROM SUNDAY ONWARD. HOWEVER, WE HAVE CAPPED POPS AT 10% SINCE OUR
CONFIDENCE OF RAIN ON ANY GIVEN DAY/TIME IS LOW.
BONNETTE
AVIATION
/NEW/
/12Z TAFS/
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. SCT025 WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AT KACT, AND A BROKEN MVFR DECK MAY EVEN BRIEFLY OCCUR AT
THIS MORNING, BUT ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE VERY SHORT IN DURATION.
OTHERWISE, VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KTS. OCCASIONAL
GUSTINESS IS EXPECTED, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 20 KTS.
GORDON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 102 80 102 81 103 / 0 0 0 0 0
WACO 100 77 100 78 102 / 0 0 0 0 0
PARIS 99 76 101 78 101 / 0 0 0 0 0
DENTON 102 77 103 78 103 / 0 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 100 77 101 78 101 / 0 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 102 82 102 82 102 / 0 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 102 77 102 78 102 / 0 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 101 77 101 78 102 / 0 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 99 75 100 76 101 / 0 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 104 76 104 76 104 / 0 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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