285
FXUS64 KFWD 212357
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
557 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2020
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
UPDATE:
|THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT|
LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION BELOW. AN
UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE AN APPROACHING SYSTEM OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BRINGS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING MID-HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE OVERHEAD. THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVER ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING, BEFORE OVERSPREADING THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA MOVING
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. I DID ADD SOME FROST TO OUR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN COUNTIES; WHERE LESS HIGH CLOUDS, LIGHT WINDS, AND COLDER
LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING WILL LEND TO STRONGER RADIATIONAL
COOLING. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING TO BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND BEYOND.
05/
05/
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/
AFTER A COLD START TO THE MORNING WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND
LOWER 30S, A SLOW BUT STEADY WARMUP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND ABUNDANT SUN. HOWEVER,
LINGERING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER
40S TO THE LOWER 50S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE EAST TONIGHT, ALLOWING
SURFACE WINDS TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH. SINCE WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT, LOWS WILL STILL BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH MAINLY LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST ON SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ON THE WEST COAST. THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING AN INCREASE
IN MID AND UPPER CLOUDS WHICH WILL OFFSET THE WARM AIR ADVECTION,
KEEPING AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S. A FEW SPRINKLES MAY
ALSO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
BEGIN TO SATURATE AND LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES, HOWEVER, DRY
AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD EVAPORATE MOST IF NOT ALL DROPS AS
THEY MAKE THEIR WAY TO THE SURFACE.
79
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 226 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2020/
/SUNDAY ONWARD/
SYNOPSIS:
A BRIEF WARMUP CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE SUNDAY,
BRINGING LOW SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. A MUCH STRONGER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION:
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S ON SATURDAY, AND INTO THE
LOWER 60S ON SUNDAY.
LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY, A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. WHILE THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL
STAY TO OUR NORTH, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT FROM THIS SHORTWAVE
AS WELL AS AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT TO KICK OFF ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
PALESTINE TO DALLAS TO BOWIE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY
LOW, BUT WITH THE STRONG ASCENT, IT SEEMED PRUDENT TO INCLUDE AT
LEAST A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER. WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO A
MINIMUM.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR OUR CWA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY INTENSE IN TERMS OF COLD AIR.
HIGHS ON MONDAY SHOULD STILL MAKE IT INTO THE LOWER 60S.
A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE TUESDAY. LIMITED
MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOW, BUT A LITTLE BIT
OF LIGHT RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE
AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE MUCH COOLER, WITH LOWS LIKELY
TO DROP INTO THE 30S TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET
MUCH ABOVE THE LOW 50S ON WEDNESDAY. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE, THE
NIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONT (IN THIS CASE, WEDNESDAY NIGHT) LOOKS
TO BE THE COLDEST, WITH A WIDESPREAD FREEZE LIKELY. LUCKILY, THIS
SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL BE FAIRLY TRANSIENT, WITH A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
GODWIN
AVIATION
/00Z TAFS/
CHALLENGES OR CONCERNS: NONE. VFR THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. CIRRUS
AND CIRROSTRATUS INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, BEFORE
RETURNING SW FLOW ALOFT BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE
700-500MB LAYER WITH BKN CIGS 120-150 ARRIVING BY 00Z SUNDAY AND
BEYOND.
AT THE SURFACE, BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL SHIFT
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE SOUTHEAST BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS
THAN 5 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY, BEFORE SLOWLY
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 18Z SATURDAY AND BEYOND.
05/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 36 59 47 63 50 / 0 0 0 40 20
WACO 33 59 45 63 52 / 0 0 0 20 10
PARIS 30 55 42 57 51 / 0 0 5 50 40
DENTON 36 59 47 62 48 / 0 0 5 40 20
MCKINNEY 34 57 45 61 49 / 0 0 0 40 20
DALLAS 38 58 49 63 51 / 0 0 0 30 20
TERRELL 33 57 44 62 52 / 0 0 0 50 20
CORSICANA 34 57 45 62 53 / 0 0 0 30 20
TEMPLE 34 59 46 63 52 / 0 0 0 10 5
MINERAL WELLS 35 60 46 63 45 / 0 0 5 20 20
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
05/12
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