614
FXUS64 KFWD 042302
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
502 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE US-84 CORRIDOR.
- NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THIS WEEK, PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS (40-50% CHANCE) APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
LONGWAVE RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL PERSIST, BUT
DE-AMPLIFY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL
DECREASE UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALOFT AND HELP SHUNT THE CENTER
OF A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO RETURN TO THE REGION. HOWEVER, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURNING ONLY JUST THIS MORNING, CONDITIONS WILL LOOK SIMILAR
TODAY TO WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY, HIGHS IN THE 60S AND RELATIVELY
DRY.
BY TONIGHT, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HAVE PERSISTED ENOUGH TO DRAW UP
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF, BRINGING DEW POINTS INTO THE 50S BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SATURATION IN THE
NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
STRATUS/FOG ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS (GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE US-84 CORRIDOR).
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO HOW LONG MORNING CLOUDS
WILL LINGER. THIS IS PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY DIFFERENCES IN THE
STRENGTH OF SUBSIDENCE (THE CAPPING INVERSION) ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WILL MIX CLOUDS OUT BY LATE-
MORNING WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 70S. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE (10%) OF CLOUDS LINGERING UNDER A MUCH STRONGER CAPPING
INVERSION FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MUCH COOLER
AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THIS FORECAST
BY FAR WITH NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S. ON TUESDAY, WINDS WILL SWITCH TO WESTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE (ADIABATIC WARMING AND DRYING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS
WINDS BLOW DOWNSLOPE OFF OF THE HIGH PLAINS). FORTUNATELY, WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT (5-10 MPH) MITIGATING THE FIRE WEATHER
THREAT AND ANY POTENTIAL HIGHER END WARMTH AS HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE 15-25% RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALSO BRINGING SOME UNCERTAINTY AROUND THE
EXACT TEMPERATURES WE WILL REACH, AS UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS
IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM. ON WEDNESDAY,
THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST AS WARM IF NOT SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN ON TUESDAY, IT WILL FEEL MUCH MORE HUMID AS WINDS BACK TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND ADVECT DEW POINTS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S
INTO MUCH OF THE AREA (ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR).
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL FINALLY START TO
NUDGE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AS A VORT MAX ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH OVER THE BAJA OF MEXICO. DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND
SYNOPTIC SCALE WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FOR AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO EJECT INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS AHEAD OF
THE PRIMARY VORT MAXIMA, BUT THE PRESENCE OF THIS FEATURE IS
TRANSIENT FROM MODEL TO MODEL, SO WILL REFRAIN ON ANY DISCUSSION
OF TIMING FOR THIS POTENTIAL DISTURBANCE. REGARDLESS, THERE LOOKS
TO BE A LOW CHANCE (20-30% CHANCE) FOR A ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO PRECEDE THE MAIN STORM
SYSTEM SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY
AS THE PRIMARY DISTURBANCE EJECTS OFF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO
TEXAS. AMPLE MOISTURE RETURNED VIA PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW THE
DAYS PRIOR IN ADDITION TO SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT DRIVEN
BY PVA OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS (40-50% CHANCE) AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
SOMETIME AFTER NOON ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME SUBSTANTIAL
TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE, WITH THE EURO
LAGGING SOME 12-18 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS. REGARDLESS, BY
THURSDAY NIGHT, THERE WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND STORM EVOLUTION PRECLUDE A
MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION ON FRIDAY'S WEATHER AS OUR LATE-WEEK
DISTURBANCE EXITS THE REGION TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, THERE IS
GROWING CONFIDENCE A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME
FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT USHERING IN A MUCH MORE SEASONAL AIRMASS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWERS 60S
BY NEXT WEEKEND. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO CLEAR WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 502 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF THE EVENING AND FOR MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 5-10 KTS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD HEADING INTO MONDAY MORNING, AND THIS
COULD RESULT IN FOG AND LOW STRATUS AT WACO AS EARLY AS ~11Z.
AS FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY VEERED AFTER SUNRISE, THIS PLUME OF
LOW STRATUS MAY SKIRT ENTIRELY EAST OF METROPLEX TAF SITES, AND
WILL NOT ADVERTISE DEGRADED FLIGHT CATEGORIES FOR NORTH TEXAS
AIRPORTS AT THIS TIME WITH PROBABILITIES OF 20% OR LESS. BREEZIER
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME TOMORROW
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 49 73 54 77 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 47 71 57 80 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 44 69 54 73 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 46 73 48 76 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 47 71 52 76 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 49 73 56 77 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 47 71 55 77 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 49 72 59 81 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 47 72 56 83 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 46 78 48 78 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DARRAH
LONG TERM....DARRAH
AVIATION...STALLEY
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