833
FXUS64 KFWD 111045
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
545 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM TODAY INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING.
- SEASONABLY HOT AND RAIN-FREE WEATHER WILL RESUME LATE NEXT WEEK
AS HIGHS RETURN TO THE UPPER 90S.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASINGLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOCALLY, WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STEADILY INCREASING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO OUR NORTHWEST, BROAD
TROUGHING AND AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TRAVERSING ITS
SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY, AND THIS WEAKNESS ALOFT COUPLED WITH AMPLE
GULF MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AND TOMORROW. TODAY, MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO CENTRAL TEXAS WITHIN
THE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE CONTENT, WITH DEVELOPMENT AIDED BY
INLAND-MOVING SEABREEZE CONVECTION/OUTFLOWS. BY SUNDAY HOWEVER,
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION AS WE BECOME SITUATED BENEATH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
WHILE PW VALUES CLIMB BEYOND THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 90TH PERCENTILE.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING STRONG OR MARGINALLY
SEVERE WITH DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS, BUT LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERN GIVEN AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF VERY EFFICIENT
RAINFALL ALONG WITH VERY SLOW OR NEARLY STATIONARY STORM MOTIONS.
OTHERWISE, THE INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER WILL
LEAD TO SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, PARTICULARLY ON
SUNDAY. IT WILL STILL BE HOT TODAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
APPROACHING 105, BUT SUNDAY'S PEAK HEATING HOURS ARE LIKELY TO BE
INTERRUPTED BY PRECIPITATION AND RAIN-COOLED OUTFLOWS WHICH COULD
HOLD HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE PEAK TIME PERIOD FOR
ACTIVE WEATHER, AS LIFT FROM THE EASTERLY WAVE DISCUSSED IN THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST IMPINGES ON THE AREA. THIS EXTRA SOURCE OF
DYNAMIC ASCENT WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO BE SUSTAINED OUTSIDE OF
PEAK HEATING HOURS, WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAYTIME
MONDAY. FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERN, WITH SECONDARY WIND/HAIL THREATS. DUE TO THE SCATTERED
NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY, A HANDFUL OF LOCATIONS WILL PROBABLY MISS
OUT ON RAINFALL ENTIRELY DURING THIS STRETCH OF ACTIVE WEATHER,
WHILE OTHER ISOLATED LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY SLOW-MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS COULD SEE MULTI-INCH RAINFALL TOTALS IN SHORT ODER.
THE DIFFUSE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN LEAVES THE MIDWEEK PORTION OF
THE FORECAST RATHER MURKY AT THIS TIME RANGE. WHILE THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH ITSELF WILL STILL BE NEARBY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD,
ITS GREATEST ASCENT AND INFLUENCE WILL LIKELY BECOME DISPLACED
WEST OR SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA BY LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY WHICH
WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL TAPERING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
MIDWEEK. HOWEVER, LINGERING CLOUD COVER MAY CONTINUE TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S OR EVEN UPPER 80S THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE THEY REBOUND INTO
THE MID/UPPER 90S LATER IN THE WEEK. THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW
SUBSIDENCE AND SEASONABLY HOT/DRY WEATHER TO RESUME THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 537 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SOUTH WIND AROUND 10
KTS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TO AFFECT THE WACO TAF
SITE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE BRIEF VCSH WILL BE ADVERTISED. HOWEVER,
ALL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE D10 AIRPORTS TODAY. GREATER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL ARRIVE DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY JUST BEYOND THE VALID
FORECAST PERIOD, AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED IN SUBSEQUENT
TAFS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 98 79 97 77 / 0 10 40 50
WACO 95 76 95 76 / 20 10 30 40
PARIS 96 74 93 72 / 0 30 50 50
DENTON 99 77 95 74 / 0 10 40 50
MCKINNEY 98 78 96 75 / 0 10 40 60
DALLAS 99 80 97 77 / 0 10 40 60
TERRELL 97 76 95 74 / 0 10 40 60
CORSICANA 96 76 96 77 / 20 10 40 50
TEMPLE 93 75 96 76 / 30 20 30 30
MINERAL WELLS 97 75 96 72 / 0 0 40 50
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...STALLEY
LONG TERM....STALLEY
AVIATION...STALLEY
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