256
FXUS64 KFWD 010059
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
759 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING
HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING TO THE REGION.
- A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
AFTER THE LAST FEW WEEKS OF ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE
TO NO RAIN, OUR LONG AWAITED PATTERN CHANGE HAS ARRIVED. ALOFT, AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DIGGING TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE TX/OK PANHANDLES WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPING INTO THE
CENTRAL AND HIGH PLAINS. AS HEIGHT FALLS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION, STRONG SURFACE-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL COMBINE WITH
DEEP MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF POLO TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. MODEST
DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS IS
EXPECTED DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AS MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
RESOLVED 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. FURTHERMORE, LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
LLJ RESULTING IN 0-1 KM SHEAR POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 25-30 KNOTS.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A WINDOW THIS EVENING FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
WHILE MOST WILL NOT SEE SEVERE WEATHER, ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS,
LARGE HAIL, AND A BRIEF SPIN-UP TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION ARRIVES EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL PEAK IN THE LOW 90S
(PARTICULARLY EAST OF I-35), WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO LOW
70S FOR MOST.
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, ANY DISCRETE STORMS THAT MAY STILL BE
ONGOING ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO A BROADER LINE OF HEAVY RAIN
AND EMBEDDED STORMS APPROACHING FROM OUR WEST. CAM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BE SQUIRRELLY AT BEST WHEN DETERMINING TIMING OF THE
LINE INTO THE REGION, WITH THE LATEST HRRR RUNS CONTINUING TO SLOW
DOWN ARRIVAL OF THIS MAIN ROUND OF CONVECTION INTO NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE 5-9 AM TIMEFRAME. GIVEN CONTINUED SHORT-RANGE
MODEL VARIABILITY, OPTED FOR MORE WIDESPREAD POPS OF 50-80%
THROUGH THE I-35 CORRIDOR AS THE LINE PUSHES WEST TO EAST. WHILE
THERE IS A MODEST CONCERN FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STRAIGHT-LINE WIND
GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A SPIN-UP TORNADO WITH ANY EMBEDDED QLCS
CONVECTION, THE MAIN THREAT TO WATCH FOR WILL BE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. THOUGH SHORT TO MID-RANGE GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED WITH
QPF, WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED.
THERE IS A LOW (<20%) CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED TOTALS OF 4-5 INCHES
WITH ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS. THESE GREATEST RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL LIKELY BE WEST OF I-35 AS RECENT SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE DEPICTS
A MORE PROGRESSIVE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY, THE SETUP WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEAST
BEHIND THE MAIN STORM LINE. THE CURRENT 'MOST LIKELY' SCENARIO IS
FOR SAID BOUNDARY TO BE DRAPED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, FROM
WACO/KILLEEN/TEMPLE UP THROUGH CANTON AND INTO NORTHEAST TX.
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY, LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE WITH
TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY REMAINING IN THE 70S. AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY (GENERALLY EAST TEXAS AND THE BRAZOS VALLEY), HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-90S. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS (50-60% COVERAGE) WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE BOUNDARY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
..THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
BY THE END OF THIS WORK WEEK, THE PRIMARY MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE
RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WILL DEPART THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST. IN ITS WAKE,
WEAK NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE ALLOWING COOLER
FALL AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ALOFT, A
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
HIGH PLAINS, LIKELY DUE TO PERSISTENT WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AT
THE SURFACE NORTH AND WEST OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT SHOULD
EXTEND FROM THE TEXAS GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUOUSLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THIS TIME FRAME (40-60% COVERAGE) DUE TO WEAK FORCING FOR
ASCENT FROM THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND LIFT IN PROXIMITY TO THE
SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT. WHILE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CAN'T BE
RULED OUT, MUCAPE WILL BE EXTREMELY LIMITED (<500 J/KG) MITIGATING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL THUNDERSTORM THREAT.
CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND WEAK CAA AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER-70S
AND LOWER-80S.
..SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS (30-40%) WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND GIVES WAY TO ZONAL
FLOW. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST IN CENTRAL TEXAS WHICH IS
CLOSER TO LOCALLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT. BY SOMETIME LATE SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY, A REINFORCING COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
NORTH TO SOUTH. BEHIND THIS FRONT, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND
ATTENDANT SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL CLEAR SKIES AND PUSH
RAIN CHANCES SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA BRINGING MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY THE SAME AS THIS WEEKEND, THOUGH OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
TREND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL (UPPER-50S TO LOWER-60S) DUE TO THE
DRIER AIR AND CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 756 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
LARGE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD AS THE
AREA FINDS ITSELF WITHIN A WAA REGIME AHEAD OF THE STRONGER LOW-
LEVEL FORCING OFF TO THE WEST. WHILE A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY LINE,
ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED ZONE OF WAA-RELATED ASCENT. TRENDS WILL
BE MONITORED AND UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS WILL BE MADE IF
NECESSARY.
RECENT GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS A LATER ARRIVAL TIME OF
THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. WITH INITIAL DEVELOPMENT NOW UNDERWAY ACROSS WEST TEXAS,
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF IMPACTS TO THE TAF SITES SHOULD CONTINUE
TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE
CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONGST THE PRE-CI CAM RUNS, TIMING WAS HEDGED
LATER BY AN HOUR. EXPECT A CONTINUED NARROWING OF THE TIME FRAME
AS THE OVERALL EVOLUTION BECOMES APPARENT. THESE STORMS MAY
CONTAIN STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF 40-50 KTS FROM 270 AS THEY MOVE
THROUGH, MAINLY FOR THE NORTH TEXAS/D10 SITES.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THIS MAY INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS FAR TOO LOW
TO ATTEMPT TO INCLUDE ANY SPECIFIC TS OR SHRA TIMING AT THIS
POINT. THIS CYCLE PREVAILS -SHRA FROM 17Z ONWARD, BUT WE DO NOT
EXPECT 13 OR 7 HOURS OF CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION. EXPECT CONTINUED
ADJUSTMENTS AS TIME PROGRESSES.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL TAF SITES. ACT SHOULD SEE REDUCED CEILINGS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT (BY AROUND 07Z) AS CONTINUED SOUTHERLY MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF TOPOGRAPHICALLY ASCENDS AND OVERSPREADS
THE TERMINAL.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 73 82 71 80 / 90 90 50 50
WACO 74 85 71 80 / 70 90 50 60
PARIS 73 83 69 81 / 50 80 60 60
DENTON 70 81 68 80 / 100 90 50 40
MCKINNEY 70 81 67 79 / 90 90 50 50
DALLAS 75 83 71 81 / 90 90 50 50
TERRELL 72 84 68 80 / 60 90 50 60
CORSICANA 73 86 70 80 / 40 80 60 60
TEMPLE 72 86 69 81 / 60 90 50 60
MINERAL WELLS 69 83 66 79 / 100 70 30 40
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR TXZ091>094-100>105-
115>121-129>134-141>146-156>161-174.
SHORT TERM...DARRAH
LONG TERM....DARRAH
AVIATION...DORNSIFE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page