819
FXUS64 KFWD 141132
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
532 AM CST SAT DEC 14 2019
AVIATION
/12Z TAFS/
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS, BOTH THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.
PATCHY MIST/FOG HAS DEVELOPED DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS,
AND IS OCCASIONALLY REDUCING VISIBILITY AT TAF SITES TO AS LOW AS
3-4SM. HOWEVER, THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED
AS LIGHT WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY, ALLOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER
NEAR-SURFACE AIR TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. HAVE MAINTAINED TEMPO
GROUPS FOR MVFR VISIBILITY FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. LATER THIS
MORNING, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
WHILE REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KTS.
THE RETURN OF SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN A WARM FRONT
SUNDAY MORNING, WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING INTO A
COOL AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD FOG, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE DENSE. HAVE INTRODUCED
REDUCED VISIBILITY AT ALL TAF SITES FOR SUNDAY MORNING BEGINNING
AROUND 09-10Z, BUT MY CURRENT ADVERTISEMENT OF 4SM IS PROBABLY
TOO OPTIMISTIC. VISIBILITY OF A MILE OR LESS SEEMS LIKELY FOR AT
LEAST A COUPLE HOURS AT MOST TAF SITES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR UPCOMING TAF ISSUANCES.
-STALLEY
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 258 AM CST SAT DEC 14 2019/
/THROUGH TONIGHT/
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM ROUGHLY TULSA TO WICHITA FALLS
AS OF 3 AM, AND HAS BEEN MAKING SLOW SOUTHWARD PROGRESS INTO
NORTH TEXAS. JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, CALM WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH DEWPOINTS, RESULTING
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY RADIATION FOG. MODERATE NORTHERLY
925MB FLOW ALONG WITH THE EVENTUAL ARRIVAL OF SLIGHTLY DRIER
POST-FRONTAL AIR SHOULD PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF DENSE FOG FROM
BEING ABLE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING, BUT WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE POTENTIAL NECESSITY OF ANY FOG HEADLINES THROUGH DAYBREAK
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHER THAN ACTING TO
CLEAR THE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS, THE COLD FRONT WILL MOSTLY GO
UNNOTICED FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER STANDPOINT.
OTHERWISE, IT'S SHAPING UP TO BE A PLEASANT SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE 60S OR LOW 70S. A SMALL INCREASE IN CIRRUS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS, BUT OTHERWISE SKIES WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY CLEAR. LATER TONIGHT, LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL QUICKLY TURN
AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST FOLLOWING THIS MORNING'S FRONT, AND A WARM
FRONTAL FEATURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ADVECTION FOG TO DEVELOP AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS
ENCOUNTER THE COOL TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. THIS FOG
COULD BE RATHER WIDESPREAD, AND SOME MAY BE DENSE AS WELL. AREAS
OF FOG HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW MORNING,
AND WILL BE REFINED WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
-STALLEY
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 258 AM CST SAT DEC 14 2019/
/SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND/
A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE
FRONTAL SYSTEM. AREAS OF FOG AND PERHAPS DRIZZLE WILL BE A GOOD
POSSIBILITY AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS ENTER FROM THE SOUTH AND
OVERSPREAD A CHILLY AIRMASS, PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH FOR MOST OF THE AREA
DURING THE DAY, BUT VEERING WINDS WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS THE
WESTERN COUNTIES AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG
AND WEST OF I-35/SOUTH OF I-20, WHERE HIGHS MAY TOP AT OR ABOVE
80 DEGREES. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE
TRICKY FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE RED RIVER, BECAUSE IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THE FRONT CREEPS INTO THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS, WHICH WOULD HOLD TEMPERATURE'S IN THE 50S.
CHANCES ARE, HOWEVER, THAT READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE NORTH PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN WHILE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST
TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT, WITH THE FRONT SUBSEQUENTLY SURGING SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION. DESPITE THE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM, THIS PATTERN WILL HAVE BEEN SHORT-LIVED AND MOISTURE
RETURN MINIMAL. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE ALONG THE
FRONT, BUT LIKELY WILL NOT DEVELOP UNTIL THE BOUNDARY IS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SIMILAR POPS TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTS WILL BE USED FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, IF NOT
SLIGHTLY LOWER, WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ALONG A PARIS-PALESTINE
LINE AND AREAS EAST.
A SEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS WILL ENGULF THE ENTIRE AREA AS THE FRONT
HEADS FOR THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH SUB-FREEZING CONDITIONS OCCURRING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLDEST NIGHT STILL LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT
WHEN IDEAL RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP, AND THE
CURRENT FORECAST WILL INDICATE READINGS DROPPING MAINLY INTO THE
25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS
RETURN FLOW BEGINS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
SURFACE FRONT. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO PASS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. GOOD ASCENT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH, BUT MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE
MITIGATING FACTOR REGARDING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. LOW-END RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THEN LOOK LIKELY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
OVERHEAD NEXT WEEKEND.
30
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 64 47 74 42 51 / 0 0 0 5 5
WACO 69 47 80 47 56 / 0 0 0 10 10
PARIS 60 42 67 44 50 / 0 0 0 30 20
DENTON 62 42 70 38 48 / 0 0 0 5 5
MCKINNEY 61 42 71 41 50 / 0 0 0 10 10
DALLAS 64 48 74 43 52 / 0 0 0 5 10
TERRELL 64 45 75 45 53 / 0 0 0 10 20
CORSICANA 68 48 77 49 55 / 0 0 0 20 20
TEMPLE 71 48 79 49 57 / 0 0 0 10 10
MINERAL WELLS 64 42 75 37 49 / 0 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
26/30
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page