718
FXUS64 KFWD 091039
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
539 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WITH
COOL NIGHTS AND WARM AFTERNOONS.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO PARTS OF THE REGION BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A DRY
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND BROAD RIDGING ALOFT MAINTAINING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS. LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL PERSIST DESPITE TEMPERATURES REMAINING SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S BOTH TODAY
AND SATURDAY. THE DRY AIRMASS, CLEAR SKIES, AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALSO FAVOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING BOTH THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE UPPER
50S AND 60S, WITH THE COOLEST READINGS IN RURAL AND LOW-LYING
AREAS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AS THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN BEGINS TO EVOLVE. AS TROUGHING
DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, DOWNSTREAM RIDGING WILL INITIALLY
AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RATHER THAN IMMEDIATELY WEAKEN.
MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST WHILE LEE
TROUGHING STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED EARLY IN THE PERIOD. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT SUBTLE
WARMING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE MORE LOCATIONS REACH
THE LOWER TO MID 90S TUESDAY. INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
AND STRONGER OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL HAVE A MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACT ON
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES, WITH LOWS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MID
70S MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND.
THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY INFLUENTIAL BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS IT DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
BEGINS TO DISPLACE THE RIDGE EASTWARD. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD EVENTUALLY DRAW A PLUME OF DEEPER SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD FROM MEXICO AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC WHILE
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO REPLENISH GULF MOISTURE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS. DESPITE THE INCREASING MOISTURE, STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND CAPPING BENEATH THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS DRY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO RETURN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS THE WESTERN TROUGH APPROACHES AND THE RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENS.
THE FIRST OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FAVOR
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY, WHERE INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
WILL BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RETURNING
MOISTURE PLUME. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND WILL
GRADUALLY EXPAND FARTHER EAST. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
HOW QUICKLY THE WESTERN TROUGH PROGRESSES AND, CONSEQUENTLY, HOW
QUICKLY APPRECIABLE FORCING CAN OVERCOME THE LINGERING INFLUENCE
OF THE RIDGE. OVERALL, THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THERE WILL BE A
TRANSITION TOWARD A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK IS CONTINUING TO INCREASE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 537 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY AT OR
BELOW BELOW 5 KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR ALL
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TERMINALS. WINDS WILL LIKELY GO NEAR-CALM
AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 92 66 89 67 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 92 62 89 66 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 91 62 87 62 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 91 61 89 64 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 91 62 88 64 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 93 66 90 68 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 91 62 89 64 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 90 63 88 66 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 91 63 90 66 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 90 60 90 64 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12
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