059
FXUS64 KFWD 151754
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1254 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (50-70% CHANCE) ARE EXPECTED
TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE (15-30%)
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (15-30% CHANCE) REMAIN
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- DRIER AND HOTTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING INTO THE 90S AND LOWER-100S.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF TEXAS
TODAY, BRINGING ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN (50-70%) WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE US-84
CORRIDOR, WHERE MOISTURE AND LIFT ARE MAXIMIZED. SLOW, ERRATIC STORM
MOTIONS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS DECREASES NORTHWARD,
BECOMING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED (BELOW 40%) NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR, AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN AND BRINGS SOME DRIER AIR ALONG.
AFTER SUNSET, PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH YET FURTHER, WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS (15-30%) SOUTH OF I-20 AND WEST OF I-35.
THE BEST ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS
WEST TOMORROW, WITH HIGHER HEIGHTS BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST.
ALTHOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT, THE LACK OF FORCING WILL LIMIT
SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE TO AN ISOLATED CHANCE (15-30%) FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. WEST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-20, CLOSEST TO THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW, THOSE CHANCES INCREASE TO 40-50%. AS WITH THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS, THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING.
WHERE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS DOMINATE, TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE COOLER
SIDE, WITH HIGHS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE LOW TO MID-80S. ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS, WHERE SKIES WILL BE CLEARER, HIGHS WILL RUN IN THE LOW
90S. BY TOMORROW, AS SHOWER ACTIVITY DIMINISHES AND SKIES CLEAR,
CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE AROUND TO KEEP ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF I-35
ON FRIDAY. ENOUGH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND TO GIVE THE
REGION ONE LAST DAY OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BEFORE
MORE TYPICAL SUMMER CONDITIONS RETURN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, INTRODUCING SOME
DRIER AIR, SUNNY SKIES, AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE NEAR-NORMAL, IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S. EARLY NEXT WEEK,
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE NORMAL, WITH UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S
EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN ROBUST OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS MORNING, AND A CLUSTER OF STRONGER STORMS IS MOVING
NORTH TOWARD THE D10 AIRSPACE. AS A RESULT, HAVE ADDED VCTS
THROUGH 01Z, WHEN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DROP OFF. KACT WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY A MENTION OF TSRA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WELL,
WITH HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING PERIODS OF MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL, ALTHOUGH MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z TOMORROW.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 74 89 75 93 / 10 30 10 20
WACO 72 87 74 91 / 20 40 10 10
PARIS 71 88 73 91 / 10 10 10 20
DENTON 72 89 73 93 / 10 30 10 10
MCKINNEY 73 88 74 91 / 10 30 10 10
DALLAS 75 90 76 94 / 10 30 10 20
TERRELL 72 90 73 92 / 10 30 20 20
CORSICANA 73 91 75 93 / 10 30 10 20
TEMPLE 72 86 73 91 / 30 50 20 10
MINERAL WELLS 70 87 72 91 / 20 50 20 20
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BEALO
LONG TERM....BEALO
AVIATION...BEALO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page