988  
FXUS64 KFWD 211135  
AFDFWD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX  
535 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024  
   
..NEW AVIATION, SHORT TERM  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- STEADY WARMING TREND EXPECTED LATE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT  
WEEK, WITH MILD TEMPERATURES PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER  
OF THE WEEK.  
 
- MANY AREAS WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAIN ON TUESDAY (CHRISTMAS EVE),  
WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES NEAR AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.  
 
- WEDNESDAY (CHRISTMAS DAY) WILL BE RAIN-FREE, BUT STORM CHANCES RETURN  
ON THURSDAY AND WILL LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
/NEW/  
UPDATE:  
EARLY MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY  
SHOW TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN MANY  
AREAS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT  
WINDS PREVAIL. NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE WITH THIS  
MORNING'S UPDATE OTHER THAN TO INCORPORATE PRESENT OBSERVATIONS  
AND TRENDS.  
 
12  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:  
/TODAY AND TONIGHT/  
 
SITUATED BETWEEN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST  
AND A SLOWLY PROGRESSING UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN  
U.S., NORTHWEST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL  
TEXAS TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS HAS BROUGHT ABOUT LIGHT  
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ENHANCED RADIATIONAL  
COOLING, TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND  
LOWER 30S ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY DAYBREAK.  
 
EXPECT THE AIRMASS TO MODIFY QUICKLY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS  
SHIFTS EAST BEFORE MID-DAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN. AFTER A  
COLD START, THE FIRST DAY OF ASTRONOMICAL WINTER WILL SEE NEAR  
AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S  
TO LOWER 60S. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY  
FLOW ALOFT WILL EMERGE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY THIS  
MORNING, HOWEVER THIS WAVE IS UNLIKELY TO SQUEEZE OUT MUCH MORE  
THAN SOME PASSING CIRRUS AS LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE WEAK AND  
THERE ISN'T MUCH MOISTURE TO SPEAK OF (PWATS ~0.30"). LOW  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS MUCH AS 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER SATURDAY  
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE RETURNS IN THE LOWER LEVELS  
AND CLOUD COVER INCREASES.  
 
12  
 
 
   
LONG TERM  
/ISSUED 349 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024/  
/SUNDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK/  
 
WITH THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS, A WARMING TREND IS  
EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL SEE TEMPERATURES  
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO MID 70S.  
ADDITIONALLY, A RESURGENCE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN  
WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT, WITH LOW  
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.  
 
A SURFACE LOW WILL EJECT FROM THE EASTERN ROCKIES INTO THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE MONDAY AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE  
CENTRAL CONUS. MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL  
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH AND  
CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY EVENING. AS THE SURFACE LOW DRAGS A COLD  
FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA ON TUESDAY (CHRISTMAS EVE), SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE  
FRONT. MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAIN ON TUESDAY, THOUGH  
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF  
THE I-35 CORRIDOR. AT THIS TIME, WE'RE STILL LOOKING AT A LOW  
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS IN CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE  
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE PARAMETER SPACE DOES NOT PARTICULARLY  
FAVOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT, AS INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED.  
EMBEDDED AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE LIKELY GIVEN AMPLE MOISTURE  
WILL BE IN PLACE, BUT THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL  
PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR FLOODING.  
 
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST  
TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH CHRISTMAS DAY EXPECTED TO BE RAIN-FREE. THERE  
WON'T BE A SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH  
TEMPERATURES ONLY A FEW DEGREES COOLER (IN THE LOW TO MID 60S)  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY AS  
ANOTHER SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE CONUS. WHILE THIS SET UP COULD  
POTENTIALLY BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR A LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER THREAT,  
THERE ARE TOO MANY UNKNOWN VARIABLES THIS FAR OUT. ENSURE YOU  
MONITOR THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THESE DETAILS  
COME INTO FOCUS.  
 
OTHERWISE, MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK  
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S AND MORNING LOWS IN THE  
40S TO LOW 50S.  
 
BARNES  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
/NEW/  
/12Z TAFS/  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD  
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS PASSING OVER THE AREA  
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT  
TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SPEEDS REMAINING  
AROUND 5-10 KTS.  
 
12  
 
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 55 39 61 50 66 / 0 0 0 0 0  
WACO 58 39 63 52 70 / 0 0 0 0 0  
PARIS 49 31 54 43 61 / 0 0 0 0 5  
DENTON 55 34 61 48 66 / 0 0 0 0 0  
MCKINNEY 53 35 58 47 65 / 0 0 0 0 0  
DALLAS 55 39 61 50 67 / 0 0 0 0 0  
TERRELL 55 35 60 47 67 / 0 0 0 0 0  
CORSICANA 57 39 63 49 71 / 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMPLE 60 37 66 50 74 / 0 0 0 0 0  
MINERAL WELLS 60 36 66 50 71 / 0 0 0 0 0  
 
 
   
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
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