754
FXUS64 KFWD 192329
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
629 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- PROLONGED DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
TODAY HAPPENED TO BE ONE OF THOSE DAYS WHERE THE "VERY LOW END"
POPS MENTIONED BELOW ENDED UP COMING TO FRUITION. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WAS SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO INITIATE SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE STILL KICKING
UP ADDITIONAL STORMS, PRIMARILY ONE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE I-35
CORRIDOR NORTH OF THE METROPLEX. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
STORMS CONTINUE OVER FAR WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WHERE SOME REMNANT
ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND OTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS AN OUTFLOW MOVING THROUGH THE
GREATER METROPLEX AT THIS TIME, BUT THE ORIENTATION OF THE
BOUNDARY HAS VEERED SUCH THAT SURFACE-BASED PARCELS ARE NOT ABLE
TO GET LOFTED INTO THE FREE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT.
TODAY'S STORMS DEVELOPED A SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL, LOWERING
TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 90S INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S! A GOOD
EXAMPLE OF THIS IS THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE AT ALLIANCE AIRPORT
(FAR NW FORT WORTH) WHICH IS 82 DEGREES, WHILE THE TEMPERATURE AT
THE DFW AIRPORT IS 97. IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS FOR THE COLD
POOL TO ERODE, BUT IT IS FORECAST TO BE A THING OF THE PAST NEAR
OR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
WE ALSO CONSIDERED ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW ACROSS
MOST OF NORTH TEXAS. WE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME, LARGELY DUE TO OUR UNCERTAINTY FOR HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST WE
WOULD PLACE THE ADVISORY, BUT EXPECT A HEAT ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED
BY THE NIGHT SHIFT FOR A MAJORITY OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR
WEST WILL KEEP A VERY LOW END CHANCE (10-15%) OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-20 THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OTHERWISE, SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN THEIR STEADY CLIMB, WITH HIGHS TODAY
EXPECTED IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S ACROSS THE REGION, AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES IN THE LOW 100S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CREEPING UP AS WELL, WITH
MID-TO-UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS, WITH NEAR-
80 FOR THE METROPLEX. LOOK FOR MUCH THE SAME CONDITIONS TOMORROW, AS
HIGH PRESSURE MORE FIRMLY SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER-90S TO LOW-100S, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
LOW TO MID 100S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
HOT AND GENERALLY DRY WILL BE THE THEME OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-100S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
OF 105-110 WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AS SOON AS
TUESDAY, WITH HEAT ADVISORIES BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY. FOR
CENTRAL TEXAS, TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER, WITH HIGHS
RIGHT AROUND 100, AND HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-105. UNFORTUNATELY,
EVEN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEAMY, WITH LOWS IN UPPER-70S
TO LOW-80S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE NEAR-ZERO THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, BUT THAT MIGHT CHANGE THANKS TO A NEW TROPICAL SYSTEM.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 HAS FORMED IN THE EASTERN GULF, AND MAY COME
INTO PLAY FOR US HERE BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. SOME OF THE
MESOSCALE HURRICANE MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM BEING CAUGHT IN THE
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH AND BEING
STEERED INTO THE WESTERN GULF. MEANWHILE, GLOBAL MODELS KEEP IT WELL
TO THE EAST. SHOULD THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN
GULF, IT WOULD RESULT IN CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
FORECASTS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND COMING WEEKEND. FOR NOW,
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH, AND THIS IS A FEATURE TO KEEP A CLOSE
WATCH ON OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER STORMS OVER WESTERN D10 HAS
HALTED IS EASTWARD MOVEMENT BEFORE GETTING TO THE DFW AIRPORT
AFTER MOVING THROUGH AFW/FTW. EXPECT IT TO SLOWLY WASH OUT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS, ALLOWING SOUTH FLOW TO RETURN AT AFW/FTW BY
01-02Z OR SO. WE'RE MONITORING FOR ANY NEW STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR
THE AIRPORTS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW THE ONLY
LIKELY PLACE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ALONG A BAND OF CU
ORIENTED OVER DAL THAT EXTENDS NORTHWARD. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS A
~30% CHANCE OF VCTS IMPACTS FOR THE DFW/DAL SHORT-FINAL ARRIVALS
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY TOMORROW, SO VFR AND S FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL ONCE ALL OF
THIS EVENING'S STORMS DISSIPATE.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 80 102 81 104 / 20 0 0 0
WACO 76 101 76 99 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 76 99 76 99 / 10 0 0 0
DENTON 77 102 78 104 / 30 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 78 101 79 103 / 20 0 0 0
DALLAS 81 102 81 104 / 20 0 0 0
TERRELL 77 101 77 101 / 10 0 0 0
CORSICANA 76 100 77 100 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 75 100 74 99 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 74 100 74 102 / 20 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BONNETTE
LONG TERM....BEALO
AVIATION...BONNETTE
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