776
FXUS64 KFWD 171751
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1251 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER AND QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
WHILE THE OVERALL JET PATTERN REMAINS MERIDIONAL ACROSS THE
COUNTRY, NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS IS FAR REMOVED FROM ANY
DISTURBANCES ALOFT. A SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC, WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE GLANCES THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. REX BLOCKING ACROSS THE WEST CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN AS
THE CUTOFF LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BEGINS TO OPEN
AND RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AT THE
SURFACE, A 1036MB --PER 1700Z OBJECTIVE RAP ANALYSIS-- COLD-CORE
HIGH DOMINATES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE ASSOCIATED COOL AND DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS ALLOWED OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 40S LAST NIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN
THE 60S, WITH U.S. 281 GENERALLY SERVING AS A ROUGH BOUNDARY BETWEEN
LOWER 60S TO THE WEST AND MID/UPPER 60S TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ASIDE FROM A FEW UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
WEST OF THAT U.S. 281 CORRIDOR POTENTIALLY SEEING SOME UPPER-30S
READINGS. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL APPROACH 70F, CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES
AGAIN ON MONDAY. AS THE DEEPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES TOWARDS THE UPSTREAM
PORTION OF THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH, NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL
VEER TO SOUTHEASTERLY ON SUNDAY MORNING, REMAINING AROUND 10MPH.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
BY TUESDAY, THE CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL HAVE FULLY OPENED UP AND WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF EJECTING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING
TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST. THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC ASCENT WILL BE
DISPLACED WELL OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST, WITH ANY HINTS OF QPF AMONGST
THE GLOBAL SUITE CONFINED TO THE PANHANDLE AND POINTS W/SW/NE.
THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED THROUGH
THE WEEK. THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL CUTOFF FROM THE PRIMARY
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED AMPLIFYING
TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST INTRODUCES ITSELF TO THE COUNTRY. THE
CENTRAL CONUS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RATHER IMPRESSIVE
RIDGING BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS, BRINGING DRY AND WARMING
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. HIGHS BY FRIDAY WILL
CLIMB TO THE UPPER 80S, AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID-
TO-LATE OCTOBER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
NORTHERLY FLOW OF 5-10 KTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, VEERING TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 15Z TOMORROW MORNING. VFR WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 49 71 51 76 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 46 71 48 76 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 44 70 45 75 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 43 70 46 75 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 44 70 47 75 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 48 72 50 78 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 46 71 47 76 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 47 71 49 76 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 46 73 48 77 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 40 69 45 75 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DORNSIFE
LONG TERM....DORNSIFE
AVIATION...DORNSIFE
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