944
FXUS64 KFWD 202245
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
545 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEK, WITH STEADILY
WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
CALM AND QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK. UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS, EXTENDING THIS STREAK OF PLEASANT AND DRY FALL
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP DAY BY DAY, WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS STAYING IN THE UPPER 50S. WEDNESDAY ONWARD, EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE LOW 80S, WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS AND SOME CIRRUS DEVELOPMENT
KEEPING TEMPERATURES MODERATE AND SEASONABLE. THERE ARE NO CHANCES
FOR ANY RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
THIS QUIET RIDGING PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
SEASONABLE WEATHER ON TAP THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BY
SATURDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN TO
SEND SHORTWAVES ALONG THE FLOW PATTERN, SHUNTING NORTHEAST BETWEEN
THE DEVELOPING TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE STRONG RIDGE OVERHEAD.
THE MAJORITY OF ANY SHORTWAVE DRIVEN ASCENT SHOULD STAY OFF TO THE
NORTHWEST WHICH WILL KEEP POP'S VERY LOW TO NIL (AROUND 10% FOR
NW NORTH TEXAS). CIRRUS AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AS A
RESULT OF THE INTENSIFYING TROUGH AND PROPAGATING SHORTWAVES WILL
DAMPEN OUR WARMING TREND SLIGHTLY, WITH MAX TEMPERATURES BREAKING
INTO THE LOW 80S EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND. IN ADDITION TO SEASONAL
TEMPS, THE SKIN-CRACKINGLY DRY AIR SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGING SOME MOISTURE RETURN
BACK TO THE AREA.
BY NEXT MONDAY, LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SHIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, FLATTENING OUR CURRENT RIDGE
PATTERN. TO THE WEST, LREF CLUSTER ANALYSIS HAS BEGUN TO SIGNAL A
DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THAT WILL
START TO INTENSIFY AND SWING SOUTH. WITH THE PREDOMINANT RIDGE
FLATTENED AND WEAKENED, RETURNING RAIN CHANCES ARE ON THE TABLE
FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY MID-WEEK AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS.
SOME OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, AS WELL AS THE GFS, ARE
BEGINNING TO RESOLVE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THE END OF THIS
EXTENDED PERIOD (TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK), BUT TIMING,
INTENSITY, AND COVERAGE OF ANY RAIN & STORM CHANCES REMAIN
UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND VIRGA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD REMAIN NORTHEAST OF ALL TAF
LOCATIONS. A RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED OVER MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS WILL
OTHERWISE PROVIDE QUIET AVIATION WEATHER, WITH VFR AND LIGHT
EAST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BOARD. WILL CONTINUE WITH ONE-
LINE TAFS FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 55 80 59 82 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 51 79 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 50 80 52 82 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 51 79 56 81 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 51 80 56 82 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 56 80 59 82 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 51 80 54 82 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 53 80 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 52 81 55 84 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 52 79 55 80 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DAVIS
LONG TERM....DAVIS
AVIATION...30
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