656
FXUS64 KFWD 240659
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
159 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT REMAINS LOW OVERALL, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LIGHTNING THE MAIN RECURRING HAZARDS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 147 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS EARLY
THIS MORNING, ROUGHLY FROM NEAR PARIS TO THE METROPLEX TO
BRECKENRIDGE, WITH LIGHT WINDS AND RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLED
NEAR THE BOUNDARY. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS THE REMAINING PANHANDLE
CONVECTION HAS EVOLVED INTO A SMALL BOWING LINE OF STORMS WEST OF
WICHITA FALLS, MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE BIG COUNTRY AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY STILL HAS A HISTORY OF STRONG
WIND GUSTS, AND A FEW STRONGER GUSTS MAY PERSIST OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO AS THE LEADING GUST FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEAK
INSTABILITY. MODEST MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE, WEAKER LAPSE RATES, AND
ONLY LIMITED LOW-LEVEL JET SUPPORT SHOULD FAVOR A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES FARTHER EAST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION, THE COMBINATION OF
LIGHT WINDS, A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER, AND THE WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS MAY SUPPORT PATCHY MIST OR FOG TOWARD
DAYBREAK. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS SHOULD
REMAIN MAINLY EAST OF US-75/I-45, WHERE NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE IS
DEEPEST.
THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION FOR SUNDAY WILL BE WHERE ANY
LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SETTLES.
RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST THIS BOUNDARY MAY END UP SOMEWHERE WEST OF
I-35 AND NORTH OF I-20, WHILE THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT
REMAINS NEARBY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THESE
BOUNDARIES COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEAR THE
BETTER BOUNDARY FOCUS WEST OF I-35, AND ACROSS THE BRAZOS
VALLEY/EASTERN CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE FORCING ALOFT WILL BE
DISPLACED A BIT FARTHER EAST BUT LINGERING MOISTURE AND OLD
BOUNDARIES REMAIN IN PLACE. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED, BUT ANY STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS,
LIGHTNING, AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH SUNDAY
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT REMAINS LOW GIVEN WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND LIMITED STORM
ORGANIZATION, BUT THE BOUNDARY-DRIVEN NATURE OF THE SETUP MEANS A
FEW SPOTS MAY STILL SEE BRIEF STRONGER STORMS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
FALL INTO THE 60S WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. ADDITIONAL PATCHY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVE RAINFALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
MEMORIAL DAY AND TUESDAY CONTINUE TO LOOK RELATIVELY QUIET FOR
MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS WEAK RIDGING AND A TEMPORARY
DECREASE IN LARGE-SCALE FORCING SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD BE GOOD NEWS FOR THOSE WITH OUTDOOR HOLIDAY PLANS, WITH
MANY LOCATIONS STAYING DRY FOR THE BETTER PART OF BOTH DAYS. LOW
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE LINGERS AND WEAK BOUNDARIES MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S AND
MUGGY MORNINGS IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE SHARPLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO TEXAS AND
PROVIDES A BETTER SOURCE OF LIFT OVER THE MOIST AIR MASS. THIS
STILL LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN
BECOMING THE MAIN CONCERN WHERE STORMS REPEAT OR MOVE SLOWLY. THE
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW AT THIS RANGE, THOUGH A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER LATE WEEK AS THE
DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST AND WEAK RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD BACK IN,
BUT THE PATTERN WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACTIVE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST
INTERMITTENT LOW STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 147 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT WILL SAG INTO NORTH TEXAS
TOWARD DAYBREAK, TURNING WINDS LIGHT NORTHERLY AT THE METROPLEX
TERMINALS. MOISTURE POOLING NEAR THIS BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW BRIEF
MVFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS MIST DEVELOPS AROUND SUNRISE,
GENERALLY 12-14Z, BUT THE FOG SIGNAL REMAINS SHALLOW AND
SCATTERED.
KACT WILL HAVE THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW
CLOUDS AND MVFR VISIBILITY AROUND DAYBREAK, WITH CIGS NEAR 1-2 KFT
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR WILL RETURN BY LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS. ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS SHOULD REMAIN DISPLACED
FROM THE TAF SITES, SO NO THUNDER MENTION IS INCLUDED AT THIS
TIME.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 86 69 87 69 / 10 10 10 0
WACO 85 68 86 68 / 10 10 10 0
PARIS 83 65 83 65 / 10 0 20 20
DENTON 85 65 86 66 / 20 10 10 0
MCKINNEY 84 66 85 66 / 10 10 10 0
DALLAS 87 70 88 70 / 10 0 10 0
TERRELL 85 66 86 66 / 10 0 10 0
CORSICANA 87 68 88 69 / 10 10 10 0
TEMPLE 86 68 88 68 / 10 10 10 0
MINERAL WELLS 84 64 86 64 / 20 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...12
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