819  
FXUS64 KFWD 141132  
AFDFWD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX  
532 AM CST SAT DEC 14 2019  
 
   
AVIATION
 
 
/12Z TAFS/  
 
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR  
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS, BOTH THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING.  
 
PATCHY MIST/FOG HAS DEVELOPED DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS,  
AND IS OCCASIONALLY REDUCING VISIBILITY AT TAF SITES TO AS LOW AS  
3-4SM. HOWEVER, THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED  
AS LIGHT WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY, ALLOWING SLIGHTLY DRIER  
NEAR-SURFACE AIR TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. HAVE MAINTAINED TEMPO  
GROUPS FOR MVFR VISIBILITY FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. LATER THIS  
MORNING, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST  
WHILE REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KTS.  
 
THE RETURN OF SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN A WARM FRONT  
SUNDAY MORNING, WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING INTO A  
COOL AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY  
WIDESPREAD FOG, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE DENSE. HAVE INTRODUCED  
REDUCED VISIBILITY AT ALL TAF SITES FOR SUNDAY MORNING BEGINNING  
AROUND 09-10Z, BUT MY CURRENT ADVERTISEMENT OF 4SM IS PROBABLY  
TOO OPTIMISTIC. VISIBILITY OF A MILE OR LESS SEEMS LIKELY FOR AT  
LEAST A COUPLE HOURS AT MOST TAF SITES. THIS WILL NEED TO BE  
MONITORED FOR UPCOMING TAF ISSUANCES.  
 
-STALLEY  
 

 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
/ISSUED 258 AM CST SAT DEC 14 2019/  
/THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED FROM ROUGHLY TULSA TO WICHITA FALLS  
AS OF 3 AM, AND HAS BEEN MAKING SLOW SOUTHWARD PROGRESS INTO  
NORTH TEXAS. JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, CALM WINDS AND CLEAR  
SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH DEWPOINTS, RESULTING  
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY RADIATION FOG. MODERATE NORTHERLY  
925MB FLOW ALONG WITH THE EVENTUAL ARRIVAL OF SLIGHTLY DRIER  
POST-FRONTAL AIR SHOULD PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF DENSE FOG FROM  
BEING ABLE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING, BUT WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE  
ON THE POTENTIAL NECESSITY OF ANY FOG HEADLINES THROUGH DAYBREAK  
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHER THAN ACTING TO  
CLEAR THE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS, THE COLD FRONT WILL MOSTLY GO  
UNNOTICED FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER STANDPOINT.  
 
OTHERWISE, IT'S SHAPING UP TO BE A PLEASANT SATURDAY WITH HIGHS  
MOSTLY IN THE 60S OR LOW 70S. A SMALL INCREASE IN CIRRUS CAN BE  
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS, BUT OTHERWISE SKIES WILL REMAIN  
RELATIVELY CLEAR. LATER TONIGHT, LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL QUICKLY TURN  
AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST FOLLOWING THIS MORNING'S FRONT, AND A WARM  
FRONTAL FEATURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS  
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ADVECTION FOG TO DEVELOP AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS  
ENCOUNTER THE COOL TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. THIS FOG  
COULD BE RATHER WIDESPREAD, AND SOME MAY BE DENSE AS WELL. AREAS  
OF FOG HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW MORNING,  
AND WILL BE REFINED WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.  
 
-STALLEY  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
/ISSUED 258 AM CST SAT DEC 14 2019/  
/SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND/  
 
A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE  
PERIOD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE  
FRONTAL SYSTEM. AREAS OF FOG AND PERHAPS DRIZZLE WILL BE A GOOD  
POSSIBILITY AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS ENTER FROM THE SOUTH AND  
OVERSPREAD A CHILLY AIRMASS, PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20  
CORRIDOR. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH FOR MOST OF THE AREA  
DURING THE DAY, BUT VEERING WINDS WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS THE  
WESTERN COUNTIES AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.  
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT IN WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG  
AND WEST OF I-35/SOUTH OF I-20, WHERE HIGHS MAY TOP AT OR ABOVE  
80 DEGREES. THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE  
TRICKY FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE RED RIVER, BECAUSE IT IS POSSIBLE  
THAT THE FRONT CREEPS INTO THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE  
AFTERNOON HOURS, WHICH WOULD HOLD TEMPERATURE'S IN THE 50S.  
CHANCES ARE, HOWEVER, THAT READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S  
ACROSS THE NORTH PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  
 
THE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN WHILE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST  
TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT, WITH THE FRONT SUBSEQUENTLY SURGING SOUTH  
THROUGH THE REGION. DESPITE THE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE  
SYSTEM, THIS PATTERN WILL HAVE BEEN SHORT-LIVED AND MOISTURE  
RETURN MINIMAL. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE ALONG THE  
FRONT, BUT LIKELY WILL NOT DEVELOP UNTIL THE BOUNDARY IS OVER THE  
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SIMILAR POPS TO THE  
PREVIOUS FORECASTS WILL BE USED FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, IF NOT  
SLIGHTLY LOWER, WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ALONG A PARIS-PALESTINE  
LINE AND AREAS EAST.  
 
A SEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS WILL ENGULF THE ENTIRE AREA AS THE FRONT  
HEADS FOR THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY.  
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AND  
TUESDAY WITH SUB-FREEZING CONDITIONS OCCURRING DURING THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLDEST NIGHT STILL LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT  
WHEN IDEAL RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP, AND THE  
CURRENT FORECAST WILL INDICATE READINGS DROPPING MAINLY INTO THE  
25 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.  
 
A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS  
RETURN FLOW BEGINS IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND  
SURFACE FRONT. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO PASS EASTWARD THROUGH THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. GOOD ASCENT WILL  
ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH, BUT MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE  
MITIGATING FACTOR REGARDING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. LOW-END RAIN  
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 THURSDAY  
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE-NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES THEN LOOK LIKELY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS  
OVERHEAD NEXT WEEKEND.  
 
30  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 64 47 74 42 51 / 0 0 0 5 5  
WACO 69 47 80 47 56 / 0 0 0 10 10  
PARIS 60 42 67 44 50 / 0 0 0 30 20  
DENTON 62 42 70 38 48 / 0 0 0 5 5  
MCKINNEY 61 42 71 41 50 / 0 0 0 10 10  
DALLAS 64 48 74 43 52 / 0 0 0 5 10  
TERRELL 64 45 75 45 53 / 0 0 0 10 20  
CORSICANA 68 48 77 49 55 / 0 0 0 20 20  
TEMPLE 71 48 79 49 57 / 0 0 0 10 10  
MINERAL WELLS 64 42 75 37 49 / 0 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
26/30  
 
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