614
FXUS64 KFWD 141134
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
534 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE
WILL BE A LOW TORNADO THREAT SOUTH OF I-20 AND EAST OF I-35 INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.
- SCATTERED WRAP AROUND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
- QUIET WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST EJECTS EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY.
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS
PARTS OF WEST TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AND AS STRONG FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVERSPREADS NORTH TEXAS, WE'LL SEE THIS ACTIVITY INCREASE
IN COVERAGE ACROSS OUR AREA AFTER SUNRISE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
AN EXPANDING AREA OF LOW CLOUD COVER NOW ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTH
TEXAS AND AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS FROM DALLAS INDICATE A STEADY
MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. STRONG
LOW LEVEL WARM MOIST ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH A
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING THE I-35
CORRIDOR AROUND MIDDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL TO THE REGION WITH MOST AREAS PICKING UP
BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.5 INCHES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. HEAVIER
BANDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND LOCALIZED TRAINING OF CONVECTION COULD
RESULT IN A FEW TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES, BUT THE OVERALL
THREAT FOR FLOODING APPEARS LOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED FORWARD SPEED
OF THE SYSTEM AND A RECENT DRY PERIOD ALLOWING SOILS TO SOAK UP
THE RAINFALL.
THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS GIVEN STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND
FIELDS, BUT MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL THREAT. LONG
STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS COMBINED WITH MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT A FEW INSTANCES OF SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS SOME STRONG
WIND GUSTS AS THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS MOVES THOUGH. BY THIS
AFTERNOON, SLIGHTLY BETTER BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING MAY CONTRIBUTE
TO AN UPTICK IN SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY SOUTH OF I-20 AND EAST
OF I-35. IT IS IN THIS AREA WHERE THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
HIGHEST AND WHERE WE COULD SEE AN EMBEDDED TORNADO WITHIN THE
OVERALL LINE OF STORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ALL OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL PUSH INTO EAST TEXAS DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS,
HOWEVER THE CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL LAG BEHIND A BIT.
SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITHIN A
BAND OF STRONG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE LATE SATURDAY
EVENING GENERALLY ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
COULD ALSO PRODUCE SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING HOURS.
ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVER LINGERING BEHIND A COLD FRONT. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.
DUNN
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN QUIET AND WARM
WITH BREEZY AFTERNOONS, HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL, AND LOW HUMIDITY. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL HAVE PICKED UP
SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL, DRYING WILL BE QUICK TO OCCUR AND WE
SHOULD GRADUALLY SEE AN UPTICK IN GRASS FIRE ACTIVITY TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOONS, PARTICULARLY WEST OF I-35 WHERE RH
VALUES MAY DROP BELOW 20% ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE MAIN
STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, BUT AN AMPLIFYING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH MAY BRING
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL.
DUNN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
CLOUD CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH PREVAILING TSRA EXPECTED BY 17Z AND CONTINUING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. UNTIL THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS ARRIVES, CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER INTO IFR CATEGORY BY MID MORNING. AFTER THE MAIN
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON, WE'LL STILL HAVE
SOME LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT, ADDITIONAL WRAP AROUND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY BETWEEN
9 PM AND MIDNIGHT. WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY BEFORE CLEARING OUT LATER IN THE
DAY.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 70 55 67 47 / 100 80 0 0
WACO 71 54 68 45 / 90 60 0 0
PARIS 67 54 64 43 / 100 90 0 0
DENTON 69 50 67 40 / 100 80 0 0
MCKINNEY 68 54 66 43 / 100 80 0 0
DALLAS 70 55 67 46 / 100 80 0 0
TERRELL 70 55 66 43 / 100 90 0 0
CORSICANA 73 57 68 47 / 100 80 0 0
TEMPLE 72 52 70 44 / 90 40 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 72 50 70 42 / 100 60 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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