450
FXUS64 KFWD 120005
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
705 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS
OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MOST
AREAS RAIN-FREE THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS MORNING, CURRENTLY NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON,
EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH AND BECOME MORE
DIFFUSED.
PRIOR TO IT LIFTING NORTHWARD, WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A STORM OR TWO ALONG THE BOUNDARY GIVEN
WEAK CONVERGENCE AT THE SURFACE. OVERALL, EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
REMAIN ISOLATED WITH MOST LOCATIONS STAYING DRY TODAY. THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY LOWER
TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
REGION. AS WE APPROACH PEAK HEATING, A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY FORM ALONG ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINS LOW. COVERAGE
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 20% AND REMAIN MOSTLY
SOUTH OF I-20.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE
REGION TOMORROW, LEADING TO PRECIPITATION-FREE CONDITIONS AS WELL
AS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL RANGE
FROM 99-103 DEGREES, WITH THE HOTTEST WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEST OF I-35 AND NORTH OF I-20. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (BELOW 105F), HOWEVER, A FEW
ISOLATED SPOTS MAY TEMPORARILY REACH 105-106 FOR A FEW HOURS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE 105-106 DEGREE HEAT INDEX VALUE
READINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD, A HEAT ADVISORY WILL
NOT BE ISSUED FOR TOMORROW.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ENSURE PRECIPITATION-FREE DRY DAYS THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 103 EACH DAY. LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON HUMIDITY TO INCREASE HEAT
INDEX VALUES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT A PATTERN CHANGE ARRIVING
NEXT WEEKEND AS RIDGING GETS SHUNTED SOUTHWARD AND MID-LEVEL
TROUGHS BEGIN TAKING A SLIGHTLY SOUTHERN TRACK COMPARED TO MUCH OF
THE SUMMER. ALTHOUGH THIS IS STILL BEYOND THE OFFICIAL 7 DAY
FORECAST, THE PASSING OF A COLD FRONT MAY LEAD TO TEMPERATURES
MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS AS WELL AS AS THE RETURN OF LOW
RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL TX SURGED
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE METROPLEX LATE THIS AFTERNOON, CAUSING
ISOLATED CELLS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE VICINITY OF METROPLEX SITES.
OCCASIONAL STRONG WIND GUSTS WERE OBSERVED FROM THIS OUTFLOW, BUT
THIS HAS MOSTLY SUBSIDED. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT FROM
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 8 PM.
AFTER SUNSET, STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DIE DOWN, AND THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUIET, WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AND LIGHT
(5-10KT) SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 80 101 80 101 / 10 0 0 0
WACO 77 100 77 100 / 20 0 0 0
PARIS 74 97 75 99 / 20 10 0 0
DENTON 77 100 77 100 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 76 99 77 99 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 80 102 81 102 / 10 0 0 0
TERRELL 75 100 76 100 / 10 0 0 0
CORSICANA 76 100 77 99 / 20 0 0 0
TEMPLE 75 100 75 100 / 20 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 74 102 74 102 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ
AVIATION...FENSKE
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