827
FXUS64 KFWD 152246
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
546 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH HIGHS REACHING OR EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON.
- LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS, AND LOW
HUMIDITY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED WILDFIRE ACTIVITY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS CENTERED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES HAVING LITTLE TROUBLE CLIMBING TO NEAR OR ABOVE THE
CENTURY MARK BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY.
FOR TODAY, THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 DEGREES AND
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WILL PUSH HEAT INDEX
VALUES TO AROUND 105-107 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THESE AREAS. FARTHER WEST, DEEPER BOUNDARY-LAYER
MIXING WILL RESULT IN LOWER HUMIDITY, BUT AMBIENT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN HOT.
TONIGHT WILL OFFER LITTLE RELIEF, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE URBAN
CORRIDOR WHERE LOWS WILL REMAIN NEAR 80 DEGREES. MOST RURAL AREAS
WILL FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR, ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR SHOULD MIX
FARTHER EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX
VALUES BELOW 105 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS, BUT ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURES WILL EXCEED 103 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. FOR THAT REASON, THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN RECONFIGURED
TO COVER MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS TOMORROW AS TEMPERATURES REACH
103-105 DEGREES.
WITH NO RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST, THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO CURE FINE FUELS ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS, THE HOT
WEATHER AND DRY FUELS WILL KEEP A LOW THREAT FOR NEW FIRE STARTS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
THE HOT AND DRY PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK WITH THE HIGHEST HEAT LIKELY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS BECOMES POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 101 TO 104 DEGREES
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS EACH AFTERNOON, WITH THE HOTTEST
READINGS FAVORED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. WITH AFTERNOON MIXING
LOWERING HUMIDITY BELOW 30%, HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY BE AT OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW ACTUAL TEMPERATURES.
THE DRY AIR WILL ALSO MAINTAIN AN INCREASING WILDFIRE CONCERN,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAY FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO
MIDDLE 20 PERCENT RANGE. WIND SPEEDS CURRENTLY APPEAR MODEST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD, BUT THE PROLONGED STRETCH OF HOT, DRY
WEATHER AND DRYING FUEL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GRASS
FIRE POTENTIAL.
MEANINGFUL RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN OR SHIFT LATE NEXT WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND, WHICH WOULD BE THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR LOW-END RAIN
CHANCES TO RETURN. CONFIDENCE IN THAT PATTERN CHANGE REMAINS LOW
AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 531 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS TAF PERIOD WITH JUST A FEW LOW
CLOUDS AND SOUTH WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. NO LOW CIGS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT ACT TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING DUE TO DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 81 103 80 104 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 75 100 76 101 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 78 101 77 102 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 79 103 77 104 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 79 102 78 103 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 81 103 81 104 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 77 102 76 103 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 76 101 76 102 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 73 100 74 101 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 75 104 73 104 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ091>095-102>107-
117>123-131>135-146-148.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ100-101-115-116-129-
130.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ144-145-147-
157>162-174-175.
SHORT TERM...HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ
AVIATION...SHAMBURGER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page