190
FXUS64 KFWD 141849
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1249 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S EXPECTED.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE TUESDAY
ONWARD. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS' WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO THIS WEEKEND, WHICH MEANS EXPECT
THE STATUS-QUO OF THE LAST FEW DAYS TO PERSIST. MORNING STRATUS
WILL ERODE AFTER DAYBREAK, LEAVING BEHIND WARM AND MOSTLY SUNNY
DAYS. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW-UPPER 80S BOTH TODAY AND
TOMORROW, WITH ISOLATED AREAS IN OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES
POTENTIALLY REACHING THE 90 DEGREE MARK ON SATURDAY. LEE-SIDE
SURFACE LOWS OFF OF THE ROCKIES AND DIURNAL MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL PROMOTE BREEZY AFTERNOONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, WITH EXPECTED PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
THE BIGGEST STORY OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE
PATTERN CHANGE THAT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BY THE
END OF THIS WEEKEND, SETTING THE STAGE FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER. MULTIPLE CLOSED LOWS WILL EJECT FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO THE PLAINS OVER THE COURSE OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THE FIRST
OF WHICH WILL OCCUR LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DISPLACED TOO FAR NORTH TO HAVE MUCH OF ANY IMPACT
OTHER THAN SENDING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO NORTH TEXAS AND SHAVING
A FEW DEGREES OFF OF HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY.
A DEEPER, STOUTER CLOSED LOW WILL EJECT FROM THE PARENT TROUGH
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THIS NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING US OUR NEXT SHOT AT DECENT ON AND OFF RAIN CHANCES. LOW
RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO START LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY OUT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, BUT WILL SHARPLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION.
PWATS > 1.5" AND LONG, SKINNY CAPE PROFILES WILL PROMOTE PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN. WE CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
BOTH FLOODING AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD,
THOUGH IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO DENOTE SPECIFIC THREATS AND
LOCATIONS. NONETHELESS, MAKE SURE TO KEEP UPDATED WITH THE
FORECAST AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MORE DETAILS WILL BECOME
AVAILABLE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
ALL TAF SITES HAVE RETURNED TO VFR AS OF 18Z, AND THIS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY ALONGSIDE DIURNAL CUMULUS AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS. GUSTS WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN AROUND 10-13 KTS OVERNIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR STRATUS TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE
REGION TOMORROW MORNING, IMPACTING ACT BEGINNING AROUND 10Z AND
D10 CLOSER TO 13Z. THERE IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE
COVERAGE OF ANY MVFR CIGS WITHIN D10, SO HAVE INTRODUCED A TEMPO
FOR NOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 62 84 63 84 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 62 83 61 86 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 62 81 61 81 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 58 84 58 82 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 60 83 61 82 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 62 84 63 86 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 61 83 61 84 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 63 84 63 86 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 60 84 59 85 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 57 89 58 86 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRATER
LONG TERM....PRATER
AVIATION...PRATER
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