000
FXUS64 KFWD 211109
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
609 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2018
AVIATION
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE EAST THIS
MORNING AS A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE REGION DROPS
SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY VEER WITH TIME AS THE
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE TN VALLEY. SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD ARRIVE IN
THE DFW METROPLEX THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY REACH KACT MONDAY
MORNING, WITH SPEEDS REMAINING GENERALLY IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE.
OTHERWISE, A RIDGE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE QUIET AVIATION WEATHER WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS.
30
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 300 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2018/
/THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE ADVECTION OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES THIS MORNING WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. WE MAY SEE SOME SHALLOW PATCHY FOG
ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, PRIMARILY
IN RIVER VALLEYS WHERE THE COOLEST AIR WILL INTERACT WITH
SATURATED GROUNDS. HOWEVER, OCCURRENCES OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SPORADIC AND ISOLATED DUE TO THE MUCH DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR NOW IN
PLACE, AND WILL REFRAIN A FOG MENTION IN THE WORDED FORECAST FOR
THE TIME BEING. OTHERWISE, WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SCATTERED
CIRRUS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE COOL, DRY,
AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD MAKE FOR A BEAUTIFUL FALL
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S OR LOW 70S.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AN UPPER LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WILL
BEGIN EJECTING EASTWARD, WITH LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS RESPONDING BY
TURNING TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST. THIS SETUP WILL BEGIN DRAWING A
PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
STAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THERE AS A RESULT, BUT PARTS OF NORTH
TEXAS SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO FALL INTO THE LOW 40S OR EVEN UPPER
30S WITH SKIES REMAINING A BIT CLEARER. SIMILAR TO TODAY, SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY OCCUR EARLY MONDAY MORNING, BUT BOTH THE
POTENTIAL AND COVERAGE ARE SIMPLY TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE FOG INTO
THE FORECAST AT THIS STAGE.
-STALLEY
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 300 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2018/
/MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND/
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE POSITION OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES WILL
GENERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO
AND INTO SOUTH TEXAS, WHICH WILL DRAW A SWATH OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM WILLA NORTHEAST INTO
SOUTH AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY THIS WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE REGION BENEATH
THE PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION
AND ADDED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP A LID ON TEMPERATURES, AND THE
COOLER DAYTIME CONDITIONS (HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S) WILL LIKELY
OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN-MOST COUNTIES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY REACH AS FAR NORTH AS THE RED RIVER DURING
THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME, BUT WILL BE THINNER WITH MORE
BREAKS THE FARTHER NORTH YOU GO. ALSO, THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE
MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE POPS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL BE ADVANCING EAST ACROSS
THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLIES AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WILL HAVE PICKED UP THE REMAINS OF WILLA BY TUESDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING A SLUG OF DEEPER MOISTURE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
MEXICO INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES AND HIGHEST PRECIPITATION TOTALS CAN BE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY AS THIS MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH DECENT LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA.
THE SOUTHERN-MOST COUNTIES OF THE CWA WILL EXPERIENCE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND CAN LIKELY EXPECT THE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS COMPARED
TO THE REST OF THE CWA, AND SATURATED CONDITIONS FROM RECENT
RAINS MAY PRESENT A LOW-END THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SMALL STREAM AND
RIVER FLOODING. THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING APPEARS LOW AT THIS
TIME FOR A FEW REASONS: 1) THE HIGHEST MOISTURE VALUES STILL
APPEAR TO BE DISPLACED PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, 2)
THE REMAINS OF WILLA WILL BE MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD,
LIMITING THE DURATION OF THE RAIN EVENT, AND 3) THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL BE DAMPENING AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS, CAUSING THE
OVERALL ASCENT TO WEAKEN WITH TIME. FOR THE TIME BEING, STORM
TOTAL AMOUNTS AROUND ONE INCH OR LESS LOOK FEASIBLE FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH A FEW 1.5 TO 2-INCH
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES. THESE
AMOUNTS COULD GO UP OR DOWN BASED ON FUTURE TRENDS REGARDING THE
AFOREMENTIONED WEATHER FEATURES AND WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW
THINGS EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST OF THE AREA, BRINGING AN END TO
RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY. A DEEPENING EAST COAST TROUGH WILL
CREATE A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME OVERHEAD AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A QUICK DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING A BRIEF CHANCE OF RAIN ON SATURDAY, OTHERWISE
COOL AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER APPEAR LIKELY FOR NEXT WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
30
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 69 45 65 49 67 / 0 0 5 5 10
WACO 69 46 65 49 66 / 0 5 10 20 20
PARIS 65 40 62 46 67 / 0 0 5 5 5
DENTON 66 43 65 47 66 / 0 0 5 5 5
MCKINNEY 66 42 63 47 67 / 0 0 5 5 5
DALLAS 69 45 66 50 68 / 0 0 5 5 10
TERRELL 66 43 64 48 67 / 0 0 5 5 5
CORSICANA 67 46 65 50 67 / 0 0 5 10 10
TEMPLE 69 49 64 51 64 / 0 5 20 30 30
MINERAL WELLS 68 45 67 48 67 / 0 0 5 5 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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