882
FXUS64 KFWD 222315
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
615 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET WEATHER AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
- A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, BRINGING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST LOW RAIN CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE SHORT-TERM AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE MID 80S AS THE SURFACE FLOW STEADILY RETURNS TO THE
SOUTH. A BLANKET OF MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD EASTWARD ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
BUT NO OTHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
THE MAIN STORY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE
PATTERN CHANGE FOR NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BRING SOME "FALL-LIKE"
TEMPERATURES AND LOW RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION. WE WILL BEGIN TO
SEE THE TRANSITION OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE MAIN RIDGE GETS
DISPLACED TO OUR EAST AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH GET CLOSER FROM
THE WEST. AS WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS,
THIS SYSTEM WON'T BRING MUCH CHANGE FOR US AS IT IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK NORTHWARD AND FAR FROM OUR REGION. THE LOW RAIN CHANCES
INITIALLY ANTICIPATED FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY ARE
NOW LESS THAN 10% WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY STAYING MAINLY ACROSS
WEST TX AND THE TX PANHANDLE. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS
PROGRESSION MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS APPROACH
AREAS WEST OF I-35. COVERAGE WILL REMAIN AROUND 20-30% AS
MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED OVER OUR AREA. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT WE WILL ENJOY SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS STAYING IN
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
A SECOND WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EASTWARD TOWARDS THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS BETTER RAIN CHANCES DURING
THAT 8-10 DAY PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM MAY EVEN BRING A STRONGER COLD
FRONT JUST IN TIME FOR THE HALLOWEEN FESTIVITIES. STAY TUNED!
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR NORTHEAST AND A BROAD PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL KEEP LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY.
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL OCCASIONALLY DRIFT OVERHEAD, OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN VFR AND QUIET CONDITIONS AS WE
APPROACH THE WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SIMPLE ONE-LINE TAFS
FOR THE UPCOMING FORECAST CYCLE.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 60 84 60 84 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 57 84 56 84 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 53 83 55 84 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 58 84 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 57 83 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 61 85 61 85 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 56 84 57 84 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 57 83 57 83 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 57 86 57 86 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 57 84 57 82 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SANCHEZ
LONG TERM....SANCHEZ
AVIATION...30
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