871
FXUS64 KFWD 080610
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
110 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF I-35.
STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS.
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LOW
STORM CHANCES RETURNING ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN THE
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING TROUGH IS STILL
PRESENT FROM THE OZARKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE ARKLATEX AND EAST TEXAS
EARLY THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR HAS NUDGED EASTWARD. THIS
IS SUPPORTED BY THE GOES PW IMAGERY WHICH INDICATES A NOTABLE PUSH
OF DRIER AIR INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES MAINLY WEST OF I-35.
THIS INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR IS INDICATIVE OF MID LEVEL RIDGING
EXPANDING BACK EASTWARD AND WILL EVENTUALLY NUDGE OUR WEAK UPPER
TROUGH OUT OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY. UNTIL THEN, WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TODAY AND PARTICULARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS OVER THE LAST HOUR SUGGEST THIS WEAK
CONVERGENCE IS WORKING ON A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FEATURING MODEST
INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAPPING AS MORE CONVECTIVE CLOUD FEATURES ARE
NOTED IN IR IMAGERY. AS A RESULT, WE'LL LIKELY SEE SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MAINLY ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FAVORED AREA FOR
ADDITIONAL STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LESS
THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WE'LL KEEP POPS CONFINED TO AREAS
EAST OF I-35 THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAIN CHANCES CAPPED AT AROUND
20%. INCREASING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER HOT DAY
WITH MOST AREAS WEST OF I-35 AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100 DEGREES.
AREAS TO THE EAST WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 90S. ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW DAYS THOUGH, DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING AND GENERALLY HIGH CLOUD BASES WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONG
WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DUNN
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
RIDGING WILL BRIEFLY EXPAND EASTWARD ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
KEEPING THINGS HOT AND DRY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
AT OR JUST ABOVE 100 DEGREES BOTH DAYS, BUT TROUGHING WILL BECOME
MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THIS TIME AND A
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS BY
SATURDAY. WE'LL LIKELY STAY DRY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME ISOLATED SEA BREEZE STORMS TO THE SOUTH
SPREADING INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. MEANWHILE, OUR UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
AND STRENGTHEN TO 600DM OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY AS IT SPREADS INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD PUT NORTH TEXAS ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STRONGER RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WEAKER RIDGING
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. THIS MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE
BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES WOULD FEATURE A MOISTURE RICH EASTERLY AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN AND MAY SERVE AS AN AREA OF WEAK
FRONTOGENESIS IN AN EAST/WEST BAND FROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO
NORTH TEXAS. WHILE OFTEN NOT SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT, THESE FOCUSED AREAS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE
SUMMER WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS MOISTURE RICH AND MODESTLY
UNSTABLE CAN FEATURE EXTENDED PERIODS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE BANDS OF STRONGEST ASCENT BEYOND THE TYPICAL DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTIVE CYCLE. THE LATEST ECMWF GUIDANCE, AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT THE GFS, HINTS AT THIS SCENARIO WITH AN EAST/WEST
ORIENTED BAND OF MODEST QPF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE WE
CERTAINLY DON'T WANT TO OVERHYPE RAIN CHANCES DURING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER, IT WILL BE SOMETHING WE'LL NEED TO
MONITOR GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN AT LEAST
A LOW POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR NOW, WE'LL SHOW STEADILY
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH
THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES (~40-60%) ON MONDAY. ALONG WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER, WE'LL SEE TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
DUNN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 104 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KT. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE TO THE
EAST OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS. WE'LL LEAVE ANY MENTION OF TS OUT OF
THE CURRENT TAF BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 99 80 100 79 / 10 0 0 0
WACO 99 77 100 78 / 10 0 0 0
PARIS 95 75 97 76 / 20 0 0 0
DENTON 100 78 100 78 / 10 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 98 78 99 78 / 20 0 0 0
DALLAS 99 81 101 81 / 10 0 0 0
TERRELL 97 77 99 77 / 20 0 0 0
CORSICANA 97 76 99 77 / 20 10 0 0
TEMPLE 99 75 99 76 / 10 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 100 75 101 75 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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