017
FXUS64 KFWD 101018
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
518 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2025
..NEW AVIATION, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
- RECORD-BREAKING HEAT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
UPDATE:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE CURRENT SHORT TERM
FORECAST. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE WEST OF
I-35 THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE THE CASE TODAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY AS
WEAK ASCENT REMAINS IN PLACE FROM A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW SPINNING
OVER THE ARKLATEX. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
20% BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
DUNN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY SPINNING OVER THE
ARKLATEX LATE THIS EVENING. BROAD WEAK ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE RESULTED IN A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS EARLIER TODAY. THIS
UPPER LOW WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
CONTINUED LOW RAIN CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES. OTHERWISE, INTERMITTENT CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 70S AND NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. ENJOY THE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AS A DRAMATIC WARMUP IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
DUNN
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 318 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2025/
/SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD/
AN UPPER LOW OVER LOUISIANA WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE OHIO
VALLEY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A SECOND UPPER LOW MOVES EAST
FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE RESULTING RIDGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL CREATE A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA STARTING TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD END UP BEING THE WARMEST (DUE TO SOUTHWEST,
DOWNSLOPE WINDS AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD ADVANCING DRYLINE), WHEN
TRIPLE DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD BET FOR AREAS WEST
OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-20. PROBABILITIES ARE ACTUALLY INCREASING
(70-80% CHANCE) THAT DFW WILL HIT 100 ON WEDNESDAY. REGARDLESS,
DFW'S RECORD HIGH IS A MODEST 95 WHICH IS MORE THAN ATTAINABLE.
WACO'S RECORD HIGH FOR MAY 14 IS 96 WITH A CURRENT FORECAST HIGH
FOR WEDNESDAY OF 100.
THE GREAT BASIN LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS DURING HE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK, SHIFTING THE MID/UPPER
RIDGE EAST, PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH OKLAHOMA,
AND FORCING THE DRYLINE EAST INTO THE BIG COUNTRY. BOTH BOUNDARIES
WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CONVECTION
WILL DISSIPATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST.
ANOTHER UPPER LOW, HOWEVER, WILL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK
THAN THE EARLY TO MID WEEK LOW, GENERATING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES NEXT
WEEKEND. BASED ON TIME OF YEAR AND A COARSE LOOK AT THE FORECAST
ENVIRONMENT, SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN EACH OF THESE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR STORMS. WE WILL NARROW DOWN THE TIMING,
LOCATIONS AND OTHER SPECIFICS AS BETTER RESOLUTION MODEL DATA
ARRIVES NEXT WEEK.
30
AVIATION
/NEW/
/12Z TAFS/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CONTINUED ISOLATED
SHOWERS THROUGH TODAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. NORTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN THE FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD, NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION
CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 76 58 76 58 81 / 5 5 10 0 0
WACO 78 57 75 55 82 / 20 5 5 0 0
PARIS 74 55 68 56 77 / 5 20 30 0 10
DENTON 76 52 76 53 80 / 0 5 5 0 0
MCKINNEY 75 55 73 55 79 / 5 10 10 0 0
DALLAS 78 58 74 58 81 / 5 10 10 0 0
TERRELL 76 56 72 56 79 / 5 20 20 0 0
CORSICANA 78 58 73 58 81 / 20 20 10 0 0
TEMPLE 79 56 79 54 85 / 20 5 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 77 53 79 53 83 / 0 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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