325
FXUS64 KFWD 261932
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
232 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024
..NEW LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
/ISSUED 115 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024/
/THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON/
WE ARE WRAPPING UP THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER MILD SUMMER DAY AS
HIGHS STAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE
LOW 80S DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES
THIS AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS THIS WEEK REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO RIDGES ON
EITHER SIDE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS
WILL KEEP THE UNSETTLED PATTERN AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, EXPECT SOME CLEARING
OF CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/STORMS (20-50%) GENERALLY EAST OF
I-35. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE
OF OUR AREA TO THE EAST/SOUTH AND ALONG THE TX COAST.
THE TROUGH WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER, WE EXPECT ONE MORE ROUND OF SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY AND PERHAPS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
MORNING. SOME MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN OTHERS BUT
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE, ANY SMALL CONVERGENCE ZONE OR
LITTLE FORCING WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN, LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN
AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. THIS
WILL KEEP HIGHS AGAIN GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S.
A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS WEST TEXAS WILL SEE MID 90S AS SKIES
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.
SANCHEZ
LONG TERM
/NEW/
UPDATE:
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH THIS
LATEST UPDATE. ON AND OFF RAIN CHANCES HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE DRIER AND
HOTTER WEATHER RETURNS TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL GRADUALLY SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE RETURN OF THIS HEAT MAY LEAD TO THE REINTRODUCTION
OF HEAT PRODUCTS NEARLY EACH DAY AS WE KICK OFF THE MONTH OF
AUGUST. THE REPRIEVE FROM THE SUMMER HEAT IS COMING TO AN END.
REEVES
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
/SATURDAY MORNING ONWARD/
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHING AND ITS ACCOMPANYING DIFFUSE
UPPER LOW WILL STAY PLANTED ATOP THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
ALLOWING FOR THE CONTINUANCE OF DAILY SHOWER/STORM CHANCES AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. LIKE THE DAYS BEFORE,
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
ACROSS EAST AND CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE THE MORE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
CONTENT LIES. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST, THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION IS THERE, BUT WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. NOT
EVERYONE WILL RECEIVE RAIN ON EITHER DAY, BUT FOR THOSE LUCKY ONES
THAT DO, YOU CAN GENERALLY EXPECT LESS THAN 1" UNDERNEATH ANY ONE
STORM. HOWEVER, HIGH PWATS GREATER THAN 1.5" (UP TO 2" IN EAST
AND CENTRAL TEXAS!) WILL ALLOW FOR BOUTS OF HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AT LEAST 1-1.5" WOULD BE PLAUSIBLE
WITHIN ANY SLOW-MOVING STORM. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH
ANY OF THE WEEKEND ACTIVITY, THOUGH LIGHTNING WILL POSE A THREAT
TO ANYONE OUTSIDE WHO FINDS THEMSELVES NEAR OR UNDER A STORM.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS OF BELOW-NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND LOW 90S.
BY THE BEGINNING OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND BECOME RE-ABSORBED INTO THE
OVERALL MID-LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW THE LONGWAVE RIDGE OUT
WEST TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK. UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENT AIRMASS, EXPECT WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND THE END OF ANY MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
GRADUALLY RISE INTO THE MID 90S TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE CENTURY
MARK BY MIDWEEK. ALONGSIDE THOSE RISING TEMPERATURES, CONTINUED
INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL PUSH DAILY PEAK HEAT INDICES INTO HEAT
ADVISORY TERRITORY, RANGING FROM 100-110 DEGREES. EXPECT A RETURN
OF HEAT HEADLINES AS WE GO INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THIS UPCOMING
WEEK AS SUMMER RETURNS IN FULL FASHION.
PRATER
AVIATION
/ISSUED 115 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2024/
/18Z TAFS/
CONCERNS...MVFR CIGS AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING AND POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED STORMS SATURDAY.
WHILE WIDESPREAD STRATUS CONTINUES AS OF 18Z, MOST SITES ARE
BKN030 OR ABOVE. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THE REST OF
THE DAY WITH VFR AND LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST. THE BEST COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL REMAIN ACROSS EAST AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH NO IMPACT
EXPECTED ACROSS OUR TAF SITES. FOR TOMORROW, SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS THE MORNING HOURS AND
THEN AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT AND
EXACT TIMING REMAINS LOW TO INCLUDE IT AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE,
ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CEILINGS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 08-09Z
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID-MORNING.
SANCHEZ
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 73 90 73 93 78 / 10 20 5 10 5
WACO 71 88 72 90 75 / 10 20 10 20 5
PARIS 70 85 71 89 74 / 10 30 10 20 10
DENTON 71 91 72 95 76 / 5 20 5 5 5
MCKINNEY 71 89 73 93 76 / 10 20 5 10 10
DALLAS 73 90 73 93 77 / 10 20 5 10 5
TERRELL 71 88 72 90 75 / 10 30 10 20 10
CORSICANA 73 88 73 91 77 / 20 30 10 30 10
TEMPLE 71 88 71 90 75 / 10 20 10 30 0
MINERAL WELLS 69 93 71 96 75 / 0 10 5 5 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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