228
FXUS64 KFWD 201039
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
539 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO EXCEED 100 DEGREES FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORY
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN-
FREE INTO NEXT WEEK.
- HOT TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED
WILDFIRE STARTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
EXCEPTIONAL HEAT CONTINUES TO ROUND OUT THE WORKWEEK WITH
NO END IN SIGHT TO WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGITS. ALTHOUGH THE MID-
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER HAS RETREATED TO THE WEST, 500MB
HEIGHTS REMAIN NEAR 595DAM, AND NO MECHANISM EXISTS IN THE NEAR
TERM THAT WILL ALLOW THE ABOVE NORMAL HEAT TO ABATE. THE MAIN
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS, HOWEVER, WAS TO INCLUDE LOW POPS
BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY AS ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS. MODEST NORTHERLY
FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL SEND A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT/TOUGH TOWARDS THE RED RIVER LATER TODAY, AND WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FEATURE COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. COVERAGE WOULD LIKELY BE ABOUT 10% OR
LESS. A SECOND WEAK IMPULSE WILL ROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
RIDGE ON FRIDAY, AND ADDITIONAL ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WE'LL INTRODUCE
POPS OF 10-20% THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WITH LIMITED
COVERAGE, MOST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE. THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL DO LITTLE TO ALLEVIATE HEAT, WITH READINGS STILL
CLIMBING TO NEAR 105 BOTH AFTERNOONS. THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND 40+
DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL ALLOW ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO
PRODUCE STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE,
THE CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR GRASS
FIRE STARTS, AND THESE OCCURRENCES MAY BECOME MORE COMMON DUE TO
LIGHTNING STRIKES FROM ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
FOLLOWING OUR COUPLE DAYS OF CONVECTIVE CHANCES TO END THE
WORKWEEK, THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD AGAIN THIS
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES OF 103-108 PREVAILING THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE QUITE LIMITED
DURING THIS TIME GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANYING
BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT. ISOLATED STORM CHANCES MAY RETURN
MID/LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN
SLIGHTLY, BUT THIS WOULD LIKELY STILL BE ISOLATED COVERAGE OF NO
MORE THAN ~20%. ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES WILL BE NECESSARY FOR
MOST/ALL OF THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 538 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SOUTH WIND AROUND 10
KT AND OCCASIONAL DAYTIME GUSTS OF 15-20 KT. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT
WILL ENCROACH ON THE RED RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WITH ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OCCURRING ALONG IT. AT THIS
TIME, ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 106 82 106 82 / 10 10 20 10
WACO 102 79 103 79 / 0 0 20 10
PARIS 104 77 103 77 / 20 20 20 20
DENTON 105 80 105 80 / 10 10 20 10
MCKINNEY 105 79 105 79 / 10 20 20 10
DALLAS 106 83 106 82 / 10 10 20 10
TERRELL 104 78 105 78 / 10 10 20 10
CORSICANA 103 79 103 79 / 0 10 20 10
TEMPLE 102 77 103 78 / 0 0 20 10
MINERAL WELLS 106 76 106 77 / 0 0 10 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-131>134.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ129-130-135-
141>148-156>162-174-175.
SHORT TERM...STALLEY
LONG TERM....STALLEY
AVIATION...STALLEY
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