066
FXUS64 KFWD 210027
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
627 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY.
- AN ARCTIC INTRUSION WILL BRING DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES
AND IMPACTFUL WINTRY PRECIPITATION STARTING FRIDAY, CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY START OF THE DAY, TEMPERATURES ARE STEADILY
WARMING UP INTO THE 40S/50S. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TOP THE
50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES WHERE LOWER 60S CAN BE EXPECTED. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF THE DAY AS CLOUDS SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM
CENTRAL TX.
FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, INCREASING MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT WILL RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES SPREADING ACROSS
THE REGION. WE'RE STILL EXPECTING EAST TEXAS TO HAVE THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AREAS NEAR THE I-35
CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY SEE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE BEFORE A WEAK COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE
FRONT STALLED NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL KEEP THE MOISTURE/CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. GIVEN THE
CLOUDS AND/OR RAIN CHANCES FOR TOMORROW, HIGHS WILL REACH THE 60S
AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL STAY GENERALLY IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
THE MAIN STORY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM AND DANGEROUS COLD
WEATHER EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE NOT ONLY WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR REGION BUT ALSO
THE PROLONGED COLD WEATHER.
WHAT'S NEW WITH THIS FORECAST:
- A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS EFFECTIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE
IT IS STILL TO EARLY TO PUT OUT SPECIFIC AMOUNTS, MODERATE TO
HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW, SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED
IN ADDITION TO THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES.
WHAT WE KNOW:
- LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
FOR A WINTER WEATHER EVENT ACROSS OUR REGION LATER IN THE WEEK.
THE INTRUSION OF A VERY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL COME INTO PLAY WITH A MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT
(THANKS TO ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COMING FROM THE WEST) RESULTING
IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY.
- MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD
FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE MORNING, STEADILY DECREASING DURING THE DAY. SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS MAY BEGIN TO SEE THE TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO WINTRY MIX IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD WEATHER
ARRIVES.
- THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO CONTINUES TO BE A RAIN AND WINTRY MIX
PRECIPITATION EVENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND FULL TRANSITION TO
A MIX OF SLEET, SNOW, AND FREEZING RAIN FOR OUR AREA SATURDAY
BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.
- WHILE THE PRECIPITATION WILL END, THE IMPACTS DUE TO DANGEROUS
COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. IT IS LOOKING
MORE LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. IF WE WARM A LITTLE
BIT ON MONDAY IT WILL BE BRIEF BEFORE TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE
TEENS MONDAY NIGHT.
WHAT STILL UNCERTAIN:
- WHEN THE TRANSITION OF RAIN TO WINTRY MIX WILL OCCUR FOR EACH
LOCATION AS IT WILL DEPEND ON THE DEPTH OF THE FREEZING LAYER IN
THE LOWER LEVELS. WE SHOULD GET A BETTER IDEA IN THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO AS HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS BEGIN TO COVER THIS PERIOD.
- WHILE YOU WILL NOTICE THAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOW SHOWING
HIGHER SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAN WHAT WE PREVIOUSLY HAD,
BE CAUTIOUS AND DON'T FOCUS ON SPECIFIC AMOUNTS YET. THIS WILL
LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS NEW DATA ARRIVES.
WHAT TO DO:
- OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, FOCUS YOUR ATTENTION ON HOW TO PREPARE
YOUR HOME AND BUSINESS, ESPECIALLY THOSE UNPROTECTED PIPES. MAKE
SURE TO CHECK ON FRIENDS AND FAMILY, AND CONSIDER ALTERING
WEEKEND TRAVEL PLANS.
- START THINKING ABOUT EARLY WEEK PLANS AS WELL, AS TRAVEL IMPACTS
MAY STILL LINGER BEYOND MONDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD REMAINS THE
RETURN OF LOW CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY
SLOW IMPROVEMENTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. VFR PREVAILS THIS
EVENING, BUT MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND INTO THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, WITH POCKETS OF IFR MOST LIKELY
10-16Z (HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT KACT, WITH OCCASIONAL IFR POSSIBLE
AT THE METROPLEX TERMINALS AS WELL). A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A NORTHERLY WIND
SHIFT AROUND 5-10 KT. POST-FRONTAL DRYING APPEARS TO LAG THE WIND
SHIFT, SO LIFTING/SCATTERING OF CEILINGS HAS BEEN DELAYED, WITH A
RETURN TO VFR NOW FAVORED CLOSER TO 20Z. LIGHT RAIN AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 54 48 63 43 / 0 40 30 0
WACO 57 51 65 48 / 0 30 50 0
PARIS 55 45 58 41 / 0 60 60 10
DENTON 53 45 63 36 / 0 30 20 0
MCKINNEY 54 47 62 40 / 0 50 40 0
DALLAS 55 50 63 46 / 0 40 40 0
TERRELL 57 47 62 44 / 0 50 60 10
CORSICANA 60 51 65 49 / 0 40 70 10
TEMPLE 57 51 67 47 / 0 30 40 0
MINERAL WELLS 55 45 64 37 / 0 10 10 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-
175.
SHORT TERM...SANCHEZ
LONG TERM....SANCHEZ
AVIATION...12
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