704
FXUS64 KFWD 220002
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
702 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH STEADILY WARMING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO COME INTO VIEW FOR EARLY TO
MID NEXT WEEK, WITH COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
"HIGH AND DRY" IS THE PHRASE OF THE DAY, AS PEACEFUL WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK. NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
REMAINS UNDER A STOUT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT CONTINUES TO DRIVE
OUR SUBSIDENT AND RAIN-FREE PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
PLEASANT AND SEASONAL AS LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AND VERY DRY
DEWPOINTS KEEP HIGHS IN THE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WITH A
LACK OF OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER, RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME BRISK AND CRISP NIGHTS, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 55-60
DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE REGION. FRIDAY, WHILE PLEASANT CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS, THE UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED
LOW THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER TO ARIZONA
TODAY WILL BEGIN TO JOIN THE BROAD TROUGH PATTERN AND SHIFT EAST.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR OUR NEXT EVENTFUL WEATHER GOING INTO
NEXT WEEK.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
SATURDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST INTO THE
CONUS VIA BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTEGRATE INTO THE LARGER TROUGH
PATTERN. THIS WILL INTENSIFY THE ALREADY DIGGING TROUGH, AND WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR THE UPCOMING PATTERN SHIFT. WHILE LONG-RANGE
GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON A COLD FRONT FROPA INTO NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON OR AROUND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, THERE IS
STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING, INTENSITY, AND ANY RAIN CHANCES
IN THE AREA. WHILE THERE IS A MOST LIKELY OUTCOME, SOME LONG-RANGE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL HIGHLIGHT A POTENTIAL SECOND, LESS LIKELY
SCENARIO. WHILE BOTH PATTERNS WILL BE DISCUSSED HERE, THE BOTTOM
LINE IS THAT IT WILL LIKELY BE A COOLER, MORE UNSETTLED WEEK
LEADING UP TO AND ON HALLOWEEN DAY, WHICH MAY IMPACT ANY PLANNED
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
IN THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO, MID TO LONG-RANGE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS (GFS, ECMWF) QUICKLY LIFT THE NOW INTEGRATED UPPER-LEVEL
LOW UP AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL FLATTEN
THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING THE LOCAL PATTERN, AS A NEW
TROUGH BEGINS DIGGING IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE LIFTING UPPER-
LEVEL LOW WILL BE ABLE TO SEND SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES AROUND THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, PRIMING OUR AREA
FOR A PATTERN SHIFT. GIVEN THE QUICKLY LIFTING TROUGH, THIS
SCENARIO WOULD FAVOR A LATER, MORE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THAT
SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE RED RIVER FROM OK AND INTO NTX BY MID-NEXT
WEEK. THIS WOULD ALSO FAVOR A DRYER PATTERN THROUGH THE START OF
THE WEEK, WITH MORE ISOLATED PRECIP MAINLY CONFINED TO NORTHWEST
TEXAS.
SOME OF THE ENSEMBLES HAVE PICKED UP ON THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER, LESS LIKELY SCENARIO (20-30% CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE),
WHICH WOULD BRING A MORE PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT, AS WELL AS MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. LREF CLUSTER
GUIDANCE AND GEFS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO BE BULLISH ON A SCENARIO
THAT INVOLVES THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING NORTHEAST MUCH MORE
SLOWLY, AND CONTINUING TO DIG THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS, INSTEAD
OF LIFTING QUICKLY NORTH. WITH THE SLOWER PATTERN, A WEAK RIDGE
WOULD BE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAIN WEST, AND WOULD
HELP INTENSIFY A PROGRESSIVE FROPA FROM LATE NEXT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES ALONG THIS FRONT WOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD
WITH STRONGER UPSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF FROPA, WITH A LOW (LESS THAN
30%) CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. AGAIN, THIS
SCENARIO IS THE LESS LIKELY OF THE TWO, AND FALL CLIMATOLOGY FOR
NTX/CTX TENDS TO FAVOR A QUICKLY LIFTING TROUGH WITH A WEAKER,
SAGGING COLD FRONT BEHIND IN ITS WAKE.
REGARDLESS OF EITHER SCENARIO PLAYING OUT, A MORE UNSTABLE AND
COOLER PATTERN WILL BE ON TAP GOING INTO MID-WEEK AND LEADING UP
TO HALLOWEEN, AS HIGHS AREA WIDE WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S, WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S. MORE DETAILS AND SPECIFICS WILL BECOME CLEARER AS
SHORT TO MID-RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO COME IN OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, SO MAKE SURE TO STAY UPDATED WITH THE FORECAST!
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS
WILL KEEP LIGHT EAST WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY. A BROAD
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL OCCASIONALLY RESULT IN CALM TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
WILL OTHERWISE MAINTAIN VFR AND OVERALL QUIET AVIATION WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST CYCLE.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 59 83 60 83 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 54 82 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 53 83 54 82 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 56 82 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 56 82 57 83 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 59 82 61 84 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 54 83 56 84 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 55 82 56 82 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 55 84 56 85 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 56 81 57 83 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DAVIS
LONG TERM....DAVIS
AVIATION...30
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