391
FXUS64 KFWD 081842
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1242 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE
THREAT FOR AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF I-35 THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA LATER
TODAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS IS
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20 TOWARDS CENTRAL AND
EAST TEXAS
- A COLD FRONT ARRIVES TOMORROW, TAKING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO
MORE SEASONAL NORMS BY THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WELL
DEFINED SURFACE LOW MOVING NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER WITH A TRAILING
PACIFIC FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TOWARD WEST TX. AT THE SAME
TIME, A THIN LINE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF I-35
TOWARDS NORTHEAST TX. AS THE FRONT MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY/GUSTY FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH CLEARING
SKIES. GUSTS NEAR 25-30MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 5-6PM BEFORE THEY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THE LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ELEVATED MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-35 THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, THE THIN LINE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE TOWARD EAST TEXAS WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING EARLY THIS
EVENING. WHILE WE CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO, THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA.
THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT, BUT ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS. THIS WILL SEND THE NEXT SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT INTO OUR
AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE DRY AS
IT MOVES NEAR OUR RED RIVER COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT, BUT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-20
TOWARDS CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS WHERE SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH CLOUDS AND
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES COOLER
ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S IN NORTH TEXAS AND
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN CENTRAL TEXAS.
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY
EVENING, BRINGING THE MUCH ANTICIPATED COOLER AIRMASS SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S BY
MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID/UPPER 30S WEST OF I-35 TO THE LOW 40S ALONG AND EAST OF I-35.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER WITH HIGHS TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S. HOWEVER, THE MORNING
LOWS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH MANY LOCATIONS SEEING BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT. AT THIS TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. WE'RE CURRENTLY LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO NEAR 34 DEGREES. BE SURE TO BUNDLE UP AS YOU HEAD
OUT THE DOOR MONDAY MORNING.
A SLIGHT WARM UP TO THE LOW/MID 60S WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. FOR THE EXTENDED, MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING ANOTHER FRONT
BY MID-LATE WEEK WHICH COULD BRING SOME OF THE COOLER WEATHER
BACK TO THE REGION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CST THU JAN 8 2026
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE BREEZY
WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH SPEEDS AT 15-20KTS GUSTING TO 25KTS.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THEY WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10KTS OR LESS
BY 00Z. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE AROUND 06-07Z TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN
CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON, VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PASSING MID-HIGH CLOUDS ON
FRIDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST TX ON FRIDAY.
AT THIS TIME THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO DIRECTLY IMPACT
ANY OF THE DFW METROPLEX SITES REMAINS LOW (20-30%) BUT A COUPLE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT KACT FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 48 67 40 56 / 0 20 10 0
WACO 50 69 42 55 / 0 50 10 0
PARIS 46 67 41 53 / 0 30 20 0
DENTON 42 66 35 55 / 0 10 10 0
MCKINNEY 44 66 38 55 / 0 20 10 0
DALLAS 49 67 41 56 / 0 20 10 0
TERRELL 47 68 40 56 / 0 40 20 0
CORSICANA 53 71 44 58 / 0 50 20 0
TEMPLE 52 71 40 58 / 0 50 10 0
MINERAL WELLS 42 70 35 56 / 0 10 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SANCHEZ
LONG TERM....SANCHEZ
AVIATION...SANCHEZ
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