189
FXUS64 KFWD 141840
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1240 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
THERE WILL BE A VERY LOW TORNADO THREAT SOUTH OF I-20 AND
GENERALLY EAST OF I-35 THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
- SCATTERED WRAP AROUND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
- QUIET WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
A POTENT, AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS IS
PROMOTING WIDESPREAD FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS ALL OF NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. WITH HEALTHY AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ADVECTING
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION, OUR WELL-ADVERTISED PRECIPITATION
EVENT HAS UNFOLDED QUITE NICELY ACROSS THE AREA. NARROW
NON-SEVERE THUNDERSORM LINE SEGMENTS ARE NOW MOVING THROUGH THE
BROADER I-35 CORRIDOR, PRODUCING PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL
WITHIN THE LARGER PRECIPITATION SHIELD. THESE LINEAR FEATURES WILL
TRACK THROUGH OUR EASTERN NORTH TEXAS COUNTIES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, AND THE COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND A BIT BETTER
INSTABILITY MAY PROMOTE BETTER ORGANIZATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME ISOLATED SEVERE CELLS, WITH MARGINAL HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND
PERHAPS EVEN BRIEF TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TOTALS OF A HALF TO ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED, WITH SOME
POCKETS PICKING UP AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES WITH THE STRONGER, TRAINING
CELLS.
THE BACK EDGE OF THE LARGER SCALE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL BE
TRANSITING THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON, AND EXITING THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE EVENING. HOWEVER, SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS STILL ADVERTISE A POCKET OF COLDER AIR ALOFT
ROTATING INTO NORTH TEXAS BY MID EVENING. THIS ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL ENABLE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL CELLULAR
CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA, WITH A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER AND EVEN
SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE THROUGH 2-3 AM. THIS LAST ROUND OF
ACTIVITY SHOULD CLEAR OUR FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
WHILE THIS LAST BOUT OF RAIN IS OCCURRING, GUSTY POST-FRONTAL
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP AREAWIDE OVERNIGHT. THE
AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT IS NOT THAT COLD IN NATURE, AND THUS A
SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES IS NOT EXPECTED.
SUNDAY WILL FEATURE CLOUDY, BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART,
AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION.
SUBSIDENCE WILL FINALLY TAKE HOLD BY MIDDAY HOWEVER, LEADING TO AN
WEST-TO-EAST CLEARING TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. DESPITE THE CLOUDS, WINDS AND THE CALENDAR, DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN REMARKABLY MILD FOR MID FEBRUARY
(ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THIS DATE 5 YEARS AGO)...WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S THE RULE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
AS THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL EXITS THE REGION STAGE RIGHT, A MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO THE SUBSIDENCE FROM
THIS PATTERN BY SOARING WELL INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S THROUGH
MID WEEK. A TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL OCCUR BY FRIDAY,
COINCIDENT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL HELP REEL
IN THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE 60S FOR THE MOST PART
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BUT EVEN THESE MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN USUAL FOR THE LAST HALF OF FEBRUARY.
MEANWHILE, NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
A LINE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
EAST HALF OF D10 THROUGH 2 PM, WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EAST OF ALL DFW TAF SITES BY 2 PM. THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRIMARY RAIN SHIELD ITSELF WILL LIKELY CLEAR ALL OF N CENTRAL TX
BY AROUND 00Z. HOWEVER, SOME WRAPAROUND CONVECTION - MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS - WILL ROTATE
INTO THE AREA DURING THE 02-08Z TIMEFRAME. ASIDE FROM OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING, THERE MAY BE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH A FEW OF THESE CELLS.
ALL PRECIPITATION WILL BE OUT OF D10 AND THE REMAINDER OF N TX
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL AREA WIDE THROUGH TONIGHT, AND ONWARD
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER, WE SHOULD SEE A
TRANSITION TO VFR CEILINGS, AND EVENTUALLY CLEARING SKIES AT ALL
TAF SITES BY 18Z SUNDAY. AS THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD EXITS THE
REGION, A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION,
FOLLOWED BY THE ARRIVAL OF NORTHWEST WINDS AT SPEEDS OF 12-20 MPH,
GUSTING AT TIMES TO NEAR 30 MPH. THESE STRONGER WINDS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY THROUGH TOMORROW, BUT ANY REPORTS
OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES ARE APPRECIATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 55 67 47 73 / 80 0 0 0
WACO 54 68 45 73 / 60 0 0 0
PARIS 54 64 43 68 / 90 0 0 0
DENTON 50 67 40 73 / 80 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 54 66 43 72 / 80 0 0 0
DALLAS 55 67 46 73 / 80 0 0 0
TERRELL 55 66 43 72 / 90 0 0 0
CORSICANA 57 68 47 74 / 80 0 0 0
TEMPLE 52 70 44 76 / 40 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 50 70 42 78 / 60 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BRADSHAW
LONG TERM....BRADSHAW
AVIATION...BRADSHAW
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