926
FXUS64 KFWD 090010
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
610 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
SHORT TERM
/NEW/
/THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING/
A PERSISTENT FRONT CONTINUES TO MEANDER NEAR THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR, AND COULD ACTUALLY BE SEEN SAGGING A TAD SOUTH THROUGH
THE DFW METROPLEX EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS
IS MOVING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT WITHIN THE ZONAL ALOFT.
THERE IS JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT FOR AN ISOLATED STORM OR
TWO TO OCCUR WITHIN THIS BAND, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
THIS POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT, AND COVERAGE MAY ACTUALLY
INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS ASCENT BECOMES
ENHANCED BY A PASSING SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL HENCE BE FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT MIDNIGHT.
LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL BE ANOTHER PRODUCT OF THE QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THE BEST FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE FRONT, OR ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION.
PATCHY DENSE FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT, AND WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON VISIBILITY TRENDS OVERNIGHT. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER GRADUALLY MIXES. THE FRONT
WILL REVERSE COURSE AND LIFT NORTH LATE FRIDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM DIGS OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ON SATURDAY AS THE BAJA SYSTEM
ENTERS FROM THE WEST.
30
LONG TERM
/ISSUED 230 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022/
/FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
BY LATE FRIDAY EVENING, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOCATED ALONG OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES NEAR THE RED RIVER.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING MID-LEVEL TROUGH
ALONG THE ROCKIES, WILL AID IN ENOUGH LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SATURDAY WILL INCREASE SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS
THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THIS AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL STALL NEAR
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS THE MID-LEVEL FORCING MOVES
TOWARDS THE EAST. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK WITH THE LACK OF MID-LEVEL FORCING AND RESIDUAL
BOUNDARIES. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ARE LIKELY
SUNDAY BEHIND WEAK NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE.
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO
CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY LATE. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM,
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL RETURN IN THE LOW LEVELS, AIDING IN
DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION NORTH OF THE RED RIVER. FINER DETAILS ARE
STILL YET TO BE RESOLVED OWING TO TROUGH TIMING, SURFACE FEATURES,
ETC., HOWEVER, THE ENVIRONMENT COULD BE PRIMED FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGHER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AFTERNOON
WILL SUPPORT INSTABILITY, AND MID-LEVEL SUPPORT AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR 0-6KM SHEAR OF 40-50KTS. AS OF
RIGHT NOW, TIMING OF SEVERE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. IT DOES APPEAR
THAT THIS EVENT COULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY, GIVEN THE
TIMING OF THE COLLOCATION OF SEVERE WEATHER INGREDIENTS.
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE THE EVOLVING THREAT.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH PASSES, ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL FOLLOW
IN ITS WAKE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPEARS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WHICH WILL COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN MIDWEEK INTO THE
MID 50S.
BUNKER
AVIATION
/NEW/
/00Z TAFS/
LIGHT WINDS AND THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK FRONT WILL LEAD TO
DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY
ACTUALLY HELP MITIGATE DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE METROPLEX, BUT
THERE SHOULD STILL BE IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTEND WITH OVERNIGHT
(BOTH CIGS AND VSBYS). CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING ENSUES. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED STORM OR
TWO, BUT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
30
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 60 69 62 69 55 / 40 30 40 70 20
WACO 63 76 63 74 59 / 20 20 10 50 30
PARIS 57 67 61 67 53 / 30 20 60 80 30
DENTON 56 68 60 67 50 / 30 20 50 70 20
MCKINNEY 57 68 60 68 52 / 30 20 50 80 20
DALLAS 60 69 62 69 55 / 40 30 40 70 30
TERRELL 62 70 62 71 56 / 40 40 30 70 30
CORSICANA 65 75 63 74 60 / 30 30 10 50 40
TEMPLE 63 77 64 75 60 / 5 10 5 30 40
MINERAL WELLS 58 69 60 67 49 / 20 30 30 70 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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