465  
FXUS64 KFWD 161214  
AFDFWD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX  
714 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2019  
   
AVIATION
 
 
/12 TAFS/  
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH PARTS OF NORTH  
TEXAS THIS MORNING, BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS NOW EAST OF THE  
MAJOR AIRPORTS. CEILINGS ARE QUITE VARIABLE WITH IFR CIGS ACROSS  
PARTS OF THE METROPLEX TO VFR ALONG THE RED RIVER. AS  
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST, WE SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL  
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR ACROSS THE REGION BY MID MORNING.  
 
THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL BE  
TIMING OF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION  
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AROUND  
MIDDAY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE METROPLEX, BUT THIS MAY BE A  
BIT AGGRESSIVE. MORNING ACTIVITY HAS ERODED MUCH OF THE SURFACE  
BASED INSTABILITY GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20 AND THIS WILL TAKE SOME  
TIME TO RECOVER. WINDS WILL RECOVER TO A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION  
THROUGH THE MORNING ALLOWING BETTER MOISTURE TO STREAM BACK  
NORTHWARD INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH  
IN A FAVORABLE POSITION TO PROVIDE SOME FORCING THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER  
90S, WE SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.  
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE RED RIVER  
AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. WE'LL HAVE A VCTS IN FOR  
THE METROPLEX SITES BY 22Z WITH A TEMPO FOR TSRA FROM 23-02Z. AT  
WACO, THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ARRIVE A LITTLE LATER AND WE'LL HAVE A  
TEMPO FOR TSRA FROM 2-5Z TONIGHT. TIMING OF THESE INDIVIDUAL  
CLUSTERS OF STORMS IS DIFFICULT AND MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED  
THROUGH THE DAY.  
 
DUNN  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 428 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2019/  
/TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
A WAVY WESTERLY FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, BRINGING CONTINUED  
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. PINPOINTING THE  
INITIATION ZONE AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE ROUNDS  
REMAINS CHALLENGING, AND CONFIDENCE IN EACH SPECIFIC FORECAST  
PERIOD IS NOT GREAT. HAVING SAID THAT, IT'S CLEAR THAT MOST OF OUR  
REGION WILL RECEIVE A GENEROUS ROUND OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT, WE  
CONTINUE TO BE CONCERNED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG/DAMAGING  
WIND GUSTS WITH SOME OF THESE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. HOWEVER, WITH  
COPIOUS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PERSISTING OVER OUR REGION,  
ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO BECOMING A CONCERN  
FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  
 
TODAY/TONIGHT...  
 
THE LATEST IN A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES IS CURRENTLY  
LOCATED IN WESTERN KS AND THE TX PANHANDLE. THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER  
MOVING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING (INDUCED BY THIS  
SHORTWAVE) WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY THROUGH DAYBREAK, LEAVING  
LINGERING ACTIVITY IN OUR EASTERN/SOUTHEAST ZONES PRIOR TO NOON. A  
THERMAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEX WILL PROBABLY SET  
UP ACROSS OUR EAST CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES,  
POTENTIALLY SETTING THE STAGE FOR RENEWED DEVELOPMENT HERE THIS  
AFTERNOON. HAVE THUS KEPT HIGHER POPS IN THESE AREAS.  
 
WAS ORIGINALLY PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT MUCH OF OUR WESTERN/NORTHERN  
COUNTIES WOULD BE GENERALLY RAIN-FREE THROUGH THE DAY, ALBEIT  
MOSTLY CLOUDY, WARM AND MUGGY. HOWEVER, I'M A LITTLE CONCERNED BY  
THE HRRR, WHICH CONTINUES TO INITIATE NEW CONVECTION OVER SW  
OK/NW TX AND PUSH IT INTO THE METROPLEX BEFORE 00Z. BELIEVE THIS  
FASTER SOLUTION IS OVERDONE, BUT NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE  
QUESTION GIVEN EXPECTED DESTABILIZATION IN THESE AREAS AND THE  
CONTINUED UPSTREAM LOCATION OF THE SHORTWAVE. AM THUS HOLDING ONTO  
CHANCE POPS IN OUR WEST CENTRAL THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL ZONES FOR  
LATER THIS AFTERNOON, AND WOULDN'T BE COMPLETELY SHOCKED IF WE DO  
GET OUR NEXT ROUND INTO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES BEFORE EVENING.  
 
IF WE DON'T SEE OUR NEXT ROUND OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION PRIOR TO  
SUNSET, WE'LL VERY LIKELY SEE IT MATERIALIZE THIS EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT. THE GFS, EURO AND NAM ALL EXHIBIT A DECENT  
PRECIPITATION SIGNAL ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE 03-12Z  
WINDOW, TRIGGERED ONCE AGAIN BY THE SLOW-MOVING SHORTWAVE THAT  
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS OK AND NORTH TX.  
 
NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ABOUT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH THIS NEXT  
ROUND TONIGHT, BUT IT CERTAINLY CAN'T BE RULED OUT, GIVEN THE  
CONTINUED STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE OVERALL PLENTIFUL  
SUPPLY OF INSTABILITY. OF COMPARABLE CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL  
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLOODING. THIS MORNING'S  
CONVECTIVE ROUND WILL LEAVE SOME POCKETS OF 1"+ RAIN TOTALS, WITH  
MUCH OF THE AREA'S SOILS RE-MOISTENED. THIS MAY FACILITATE BETTER  
RUNOFF TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY IF ANY OF THE STORMS SLOW UP AND/OR TRAIN  
REPEATEDLY OVER CERTAIN AREAS. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ABOUT A FLASH  
FLOOD WATCH, BUT THE KEY TAKEAWAY HERE IS THAT WE NEED TO STAY  
ALERT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT.  
 
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...  
 
MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.  
THE AFOREMENTIONED PESKY SHORTWAVE SHOULD MOVE INTO  
ARKANSAS/NORTHERN LOUISANA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, LEAVING MUCH OF  
OUR AREA (TEMPORARILY) IN A SLIGHTLY SUPPRESSED NORTHWESTERLY  
FLOW REGIME. THE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO AFFECT US EARLY MONDAY  
MORNING SHOULD SLIDE EASTWARD INTO OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES AFTER  
DAYBREAK, AND HAVE KEPT THE HIGHER POPS IN THESE AREAS. MAINTAINED  
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE, BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MOST OF THE  
REGION IS RAIN FREE FOR MUCH OF MONDAY. THE SUBTLE RIDGING PATTERN  
WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY, THOUGH WITH OUR VERY MOIST, UNSTABLE  
AIRMASS GOING ABSOLUTELY NOWHERE, GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SCATTERED  
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPING IN OUR NORTHERNMOST  
COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BEYOND THIS POINT, THE GFS AND EURO  
DIVERGE A BIT IN THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE, BUT IT'S A  
SAFE BET THAT IT'LL SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA SOMETIME BETWEEN TUESDAY  
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD INDUCE ADDITIONAL  
SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA  
WEDNESDAY, BUT IT'S DOUBTFUL THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THE  
RAINFALL PATTERN WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT COMPARED WITH THE SUNDAY-  
MONDAY ACTIVITY. WEDNESDAY WILL PROBABLY ALSO BE THE FIRST DAY  
THAT OUR AFTERNOON TEMPS START TO CLIMB DECENTLY ABOVE SEASONAL  
LEVELS.  
 
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...  
 
COMPARED WITH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK, THIS  
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE RAIN-FREE AND  
HOTTER. WHILE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE  
AVAILABLE FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION, SYNOPTIC-SCALE RIDGING  
WILL ASSERT ITSELF OVER THE REGION, AND THIS WILL INDUCE A  
HEALTHY RISE IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. WE SHOULD SEE MID TO UPPER  
90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH  
SATURDAY. WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 70S, HEAT INDEX VALUES  
WILL BE PUSHING THE CENTURY MARK IN MANY AREAS.  
 
BRADSHAW  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 87 70 89 72 91 / 60 70 50 30 30  
WACO 89 72 91 73 94 / 40 70 40 20 20  
PARIS 82 67 83 69 86 / 70 70 70 40 40  
DENTON 86 69 88 71 90 / 60 60 50 30 30  
MCKINNEY 86 69 86 72 90 / 70 70 60 40 30  
DALLAS 87 72 89 73 91 / 70 70 60 30 30  
TERRELL 87 70 89 72 91 / 80 60 60 30 30  
CORSICANA 86 71 86 72 90 / 70 70 60 30 20  
TEMPLE 89 72 91 74 94 / 40 50 40 20 20  
MINERAL WELLS 87 69 89 70 92 / 30 60 30 30 20  
 

 
   
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
91  
 
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