249
FXUS64 KSHV 031202
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
602 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
- COOLER, BUT STILL ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- ANOTHER WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S BY MID NEXT WEEK.
- THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME LATE NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIMING UNCERTAINTY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BRING A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT, BRINGING SOME
RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE ON SATURDAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. AS THIS SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES EASTWARD,
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL RETURN TO BE QUASI-ZONAL FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE WORK WEEK. SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS LIKELY TO RETURN AT
THIS POINT AND BEGIN ANOTHER WARMING TREND THROUGH AT LEAST MID-
WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES FLIRTING WITH 80S ONCE AGAIN.
THE REPETITIVE FORECAST TAKES A TURN IN THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. AT THIS POINT IN
TIME, THERE ARE SEVERAL INCONSISTENCIES IN LONG-RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. GENERALLY, BOTH THE EURO AND THE
GFS AGREE THAT A CUTOFF LOW FROM THE SOUTHERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, WITH THE GREATER TROUGH FOLLOWING IT ON SATURDAY. THE
GFS HAS A SLOWER PROROGATION SPEED FOR THE MAIN TROUGH COMPARED
TO THE EURO. THE EURO ALSO TAKES THE INITIAL CUTOFF LOW ON MORE
OF A SOUTHERLY TRACK THAN THE GFS, BUT THESE DIFFERENCES WILL
LIKELY RESOLVE AS TIME GOES ON. IF THE ABOVE SCENARIO DOES PLAY
OUT, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STEADY RAINFALL CHANCES FROM THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS
MAKE FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING LOOK UNLIKELY FOR THIS EVENT, BUT IT
WILL BE MONITORED AS NEW DATA COME OUT.
57
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 554 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
FOR THE 03/12Z TAF PERIOD, WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR CIGS HAVE
OVERSPREAD OUR AIRSPACE THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE ALL
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION, MVFR/IFR VSBYS HAVE
ALSO ACCOMPANIED THESE LOW CIGS WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED
LATER THIS MORNING WITH A SLOWER LIFTING OF CIGS BACK TO MVFR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY SCATTER BY
MID-LATE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH ARE STILL LIKELY TO HOVER AROUND
HIGH-END MVFR THRESHOLDS WITH POSSIBLE DETERIORATION ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE ALSO SHIFTING TO THE N/NE WITH FROPA, AND
WILL REMAIN N/NE THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY AROUND 10 KTS OR
LESS.
/19/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 554 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 63 43 63 44 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 59 39 59 40 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 61 34 57 37 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 62 40 60 43 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 56 35 57 38 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 64 41 65 47 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 64 41 64 44 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 67 44 67 44 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...19
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