334  
FXUS64 KSHV 151802  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
102 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2025  
 
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY  
MORNING, WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES  
TODAY.  
 
- HEAT ADVISORIES RETURN ON TUESDAY AND MAY EXTEND INTO  
WEDNESDAY.  
 
- ALL EYES REMAIN HYPER-FOCUSED ON THE TROPICS AS THERE IS A 40%  
CHANCE OF SOME TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF  
COAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2025  
 
ALTHOUGH RADAR IMAGERY HAS GONE QUIET EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, MODELS  
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE IDEA THAT THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED  
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON SO I HAVE  
MAINTAINED SOME MENTION OF POPS ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THIS  
EVENING. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS HAVE SETTLED IN TO THE  
REGION AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.  
DESPITE THE HEAT TODAY, I HAVE ELECTED TO LAY IN THE BED WE MADE  
AND NOT ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS I STILL THINK  
WE WILL BE BORDERLINE AT BEST. I WAS ON THE FENCE FOR WEDNESDAY  
TOO, AND AFTER SOME CONSIDERATION, I DECIDED TO GO WITH A HEAT  
ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF OUR EASTERN ZONES. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST  
HEADLINES FOR DETAILS ON EXACT LOCATION. PRETTY GOOD CHANCE THAT  
HEAT ADVISORIES COULD BE EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY FOR SOME PORTIONS  
OF THE AREA AS HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REMAIN AT CRITICAL LEVELS.  
 
OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA  
WON'T COME TILL LATER IN THE WEEK AND IN THE FORM OF TROPICAL  
MOISTURE. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY  
WITH THE MODEL RUNS TODAY. I DON'T THINK MODELS WILL START TO  
LEVEL OUT TILL THE SYSTEM IS FULLY IN THE GULF AND WE CAN SEE HOW  
IT STARTS TO INTERACT WITH THE WATERS THERE. REGARDLESS, NBM  
CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FROM THE SYSTEM LATE  
THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY, BUT THE OVERALL THEME OF LOCATION AND  
TIMING WILL BE REFINED THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE PICTURE BECOMES  
MORE CLEAR. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN WHAT OUR  
TEMPERATURES THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL LOOK LIKE, SO JUST  
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR THE LATEST. /33/  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2025  
 
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW  
SHWRS/ISOLD TS AT KLFK WITH THE MID AFTN SEA BREEZE. ALSO AT KELD  
NEAR A DEPARTING UPPER LOW. OTHERWISE, JUST A TOUCH OF MVFR AT  
KLFK 12-15Z. WINDS TODAY ARE SW 5-10 AND A FEW GUST, THEN BACKING  
OVERNIGHT TO S/SW 5KT OR LESS. WEDNESDAY WILL PREVAIL SW 10KT  
AGAIN WITH AN EVEN DRIER DAY. HOWEVER, THE GULF LOOKS TO OPEN FOR  
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION LATER THIS WEEK WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH  
MOVG W ALONG THE LA/TX COAST. /24/  
 
 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  
 
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2025  
 
ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTER ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH  
TONIGHT.  
 
13  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
SHV 96 79 97 77 / 10 0 0 0  
MLU 94 77 96 76 / 10 0 0 0  
DEQ 90 72 93 71 / 20 10 0 0  
TXK 94 76 97 75 / 10 0 0 0  
ELD 92 74 96 73 / 10 10 0 0  
TYR 92 74 92 73 / 10 0 0 0  
GGG 94 75 95 73 / 10 0 0 0  
LFK 93 74 93 72 / 10 0 0 0  
 
 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ073.  
 
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ005-006-  
013-014-019>022.  
 
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...33  
AVIATION...24  
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