674  
FXUS64 KSHV 210306  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
1006 PM CDT SAT APR 20 2024  
   
..NEW UPDATE
 
 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CDT SAT APR 20 2024  
 
DRIER MID LEVEL AIR HAS BEGUN TO ENTRAIN SE INTO SE OK/EXTREME NW  
TX AND SW AR AS OF MID-EVENING, INDICATIVE OF THE RAPID DECREASE  
IN POST-FRONTAL -SHRA PER THE MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY. FARTHER SE,  
LARGE SCALE ASCENT HAS INCREASED WITHIN AN AREA OF INCREASING  
DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGHING DEPICTED ON THE EVENING WATER  
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER WCNTRL TX, WHICH HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD  
RAINS HAVING SPREAD E ACROSS N LA. THIS WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT-LIVED  
THOUGH AS ADDITIONAL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL CONTINUE FROM THE  
NNW OVERNIGHT, AND AS THE BETTER ASCENT BEGINS TO SHIFT ESE INTO  
SE TX/CNTRL AND SRN LA. EVEN AS THE HEAVIER RAINS DIMINISH,  
ADDITIONAL -SHRA REDEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT  
ESPECIALLY OVER LOWER E TX/N LA ALONG/S OF I-20, NEAR THE REMNANT  
H850 TROUGH WHICH WILL SLIDE SLOWLY S OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH  
DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  
 
DID HAVE TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TONIGHT, MAINLY TO SCALE  
BACK POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/NRN SECTIONS  
OF SW AR, WHILE KEEPING LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS GOING FARTHER SE.  
DID SPEED UP THE LOWERING OF POPS FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT TO  
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS AS WELL AS THE POSITION OF THE H850  
TROUGH, WHICH RESULTED IN A LOWERING OF POPS (TO LOW/MID CHANCE)  
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY ACROSS LOWER E TX/N LA. SINCE THE ELEVATED  
INSTABILITY HAS DIMINISHED, HAVE ALSO LOWERED THUNDER MENTION TO  
ISOLATED, WHILE REMOVING THUNDER MENTION TONIGHT OVER THE NRN HALF  
OF THE AREA.  
 
CURRENT OBS INDICATE THAT THE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT HAS RESULTED IN  
IMPROVING CIGS WHERE THE RAINS HAVE ENDED, BUT AMPLE ELEVATED CIGS  
WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT EVEN AS SOME OF THESE CIGS LIFT ACROSS MORE  
OF NE TX/EXTREME NRN LA. EVENSO, POST-FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION WILL  
BE QUITE WEAK AT BEST OVERNIGHT EVEN AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES  
TO DRIFT S OFF THE EXTREME SE TX/S LA COAST, WITH TEMPS NOT  
FALLING MUCH FROM THE 02Z OBS. THUS, HAVE HAD TO RAISE MIN TEMPS  
AREAWIDE, ESPECIALLY BY AS MUCH AS SEVERAL DEGREES OVER SE OK/SW  
AR, AS THE NBM CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THESE POST-FRONTAL  
TEMPS. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER DAYBREAK,  
WITH POSSIBLY SOME RETURN OF THE SUN TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY  
AFTERNOON.  
 
ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.  
 
15  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SAT APR 20 2024  
 
A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE  
TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES,  
ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MOST OF THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION  
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 INTO  
DEEP EAST TEXAS, INCLUDING KLFK, EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA.  
THE PRECIP SHOULD FINALLY BEGINNING TO DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO  
SOUTHEAST AND MOVING COMPLETELY OUT OF THE AREA BY 21/12Z. FLIGHT  
CONDITIONS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE, BUT IFR CEILINGS ARE  
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INITIALLY. CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY  
LIFT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THE CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO  
SCATTER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL  
AT ALL TAF SITES BY 21/20Z.  
 
CN  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
SHV 51 67 45 72 / 100 30 0 0  
MLU 50 65 42 68 / 100 40 0 0  
DEQ 48 65 37 70 / 30 10 0 0  
TXK 48 66 42 71 / 90 10 0 0  
ELD 48 65 39 70 / 70 20 0 0  
TYR 48 65 44 71 / 100 20 0 0  
GGG 48 65 42 71 / 100 20 0 0  
LFK 51 66 44 72 / 100 30 0 0  
 

 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...15  
AVIATION...09  
 
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