999
FXUS64 KSHV 162335
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
535 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
- WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE BACKDOORING INTO OUR REGION TODAY
BEFORE STALLING TONIGHT.
- THE FRONT WILL DO LITTLE TO BUCK THE TREND OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE THIS WEEK.
- CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED ON WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER AND/OR
FLOODING IMPACTS ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION LATER THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUD COVER ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION THIS MORNING
IS TAKING IT'S TIME SCATTERING OUT. SOME CLEARING WAS OBSERVED
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES AND THIS IS DUE IN PART TO A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL CONTINUE TRYING TO BACKDOOR ITSELF
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST INTO OUR REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. NOT A LOT OF
PUSH WITH THIS FEATURE BUT I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE IT
DRIFT SOUTH TO NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY TONIGHT
BEFORE IT STALLS AND ACTUALLY BEGINS RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD AS
A WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE
MAY HELP TO OFFSET TEMPERATURES EVER SO SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AND
MONDAY BUT A MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THIS
UNSEASONABLY, NEAR RECORD BREAKING WARMTH THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY AND MAYBE INTO THURSDAY IF TRENDS CONTINUE WITH OUR NEXT
TROUGH.
SPEAKING OF OUR NEXT TROUGH...A LOT HAS CHANGED WITH DETERMINISTIC
PROGS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS SO I'M NOT QUITE READY TO CALL IT A
TREND BUT LETS JUST SAY MY CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG IN
THIS TROUGH BECOMING A WIDESPREAD, IMPACTFUL STORM SYSTEM LATER
THIS WEEK. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WE'VE BEEN
TALKING ABOUT FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW MAY END UP COMING OUT IN
PIECES INSTEAD OF ONE LARGE PUNCH AND THIS IS DUE IN PART TO A
NUMBER OF REASONS. FIRST OF ALL, THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GREAT BASIN WITH SOME PROGS STILL HAVING A
BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS SYSTEM LOCKED UP ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE COUNTRY AS LATE AS WED NIGHT AND
EVEN INTO THURSDAY. THIS IS QUITE A SHIFT FROM YESTERDAY'S PROGS
AS THERE WAS DESCENT RUN TO RUN AND PROG TO PROG CONSISTENCY WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS AT LEAST BEGINNING TO ENTER THE TEXAS HILL
COUNTRY BY THURSDAY. SECONDLY, THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS OUR REGION ON TUESDAY IS MUCH MORE STRONGLY AMPLIFIED AND
DOES NOT APPEAR TO FLATTEN OUT AS MUCH ACROSS THE TENN/LOWER MISS
VALLEY AS WAS SUGGESTED IN EARLIER PROGS. FINALLY, ANOTHER
VIGOROUS TROUGH QUICKLY COMES ON SHORE THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
APPEARS TO BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE GREAT BASIN TROUGH WHICH
FURTHER HOLDS IT BACK AND IN TURN, ALLOWS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH TO COME OUT IN PIECES. THIS WOULD RESULT IN EJECTING
ENERGY ACROSS THE PLAINS LATER THIS WEEK BEING MUCH FURTHER
NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION IN THE WED-FRI TIMEFRAME. HAVING SAID
THAT, THERE STILL IS QUITE A BIT OF PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE MOVING RAPIDLY OUR WAY THU/THU NIGHT BUT THE TROUGH
ITSELF DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE NEARLY AS AMPLIFIED AS IT DID
EARLIER.
SO FOR NOW, THE KEY MESSAGES ARE THIS: 1)...THERE IS STILL A
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING OUR REGION
SOMETIME LATER THIS WEEK (MOST LIKELY IN THE THU/THU NIGHT
TIMEFRAME) BUT CONFIDENCE HAS REALLY WAINED ON THIS COMPARED TO
THIS TIME YESTERDAY. 2). IF A LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGH BECOMES A
TREND AND NOT JUST AN ANOMALY IN THE PROGS, THEN THAT WOULD
RESULT IN MUCH LESS RAINFALL ACROSS OUR REGION IN THE WED-FRI
TIMEFRAME THAN WE HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS.
NEEDLESS TO SAY, WE WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THIS FORECAST AS
WE GO THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
13
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
FOR THE 17/00Z TAFS, STUBBORN CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO KEEP CIGS
IN THE MVFR TO LOWER VFR RANGE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ARKLATEX AIRSPACE, WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BEFORE MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER RETURNS OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE, MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS AFTER 17/09Z. FOG
DEVELOPMENT LOOKS LIKELY, AND GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW VSBYS
FALLING TOWARDS DAYBREAK FOR SOUTHERN AIRSPACE, WITH IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AT KLFK. IMPACTS MAY SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS THE
I-20 CORRIDOR, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
PREVAILING CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS WILL TREND EASTERLY OVERNIGHT
BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY AGAIN TOMORROW AND PICKING UP TO
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
/26/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 66 83 67 85 / 10 10 10 0
MLU 62 83 63 84 / 10 10 0 0
DEQ 56 78 64 80 / 10 10 20 10
TXK 63 81 68 82 / 10 10 10 10
ELD 58 80 62 81 / 10 10 10 0
TYR 65 83 68 83 / 10 0 10 10
GGG 64 83 65 84 / 10 10 10 0
LFK 64 84 65 85 / 10 10 10 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...26
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