169
FXUS64 KSHV 281124
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
624 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
- THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT,
POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES INTO
THE REGION AND INTERACTS WITH A VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.
- THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH THE COLD FRONT LINGERING JUST TO OUR SOUTH WHILE A TROUGH
OUT WEST LIFTS ADDITIONAL PACIFIC MOISTURE NE INTO THE REGION.
- THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FINALLY USHER THE FRONT WELL TO OUR EAST
BY LATER THIS WEEKEND WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING
IN BEHIND IT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
WHILE OUR REGION WAS LARGELY SPARED FROM CONVECTION ON MONDAY DUE
TO A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION THAT HELD THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON,
THAT IS NOT LIKELY TO BE THE CASE LATER TODAY AND THROUGH TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH SLOWLY ADVANCES IN THE REGION. GIVEN
THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WITH DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 70S AND
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S ONCE AGAIN, CONVECTION
IS LIKELY TO FIRE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AS EARLY AS THE MIDDAY
TIMEFRAME AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, COINCIDING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
A UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE INTO THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY.
IN ADDITION, A SFC LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN NORTH TX WILL ENHANCE
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM WITH CONVECTION LIKELY EXPANDING
SOUTH TOWARD THE I-20 CORRIDOR THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THE CAPPING INVERSION COULD
HOLD LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON FARTHER SOUTH AND INHIBIT CONVECTION
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING AS WELL CLOSER
TO I-20 AND POINTS SOUTH. HOWEVER, CURRENT THINKING IS THE FRONTAL
INFLUENCE AND GREATER FORCING ALOFT WILL EVENTUALLY WIN OUT ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN HALF AS WELL WITH THE SEVERE THREAT EXPANDING NEARLY
AREAWIDE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FOR THIS REASON, SPC HAS EXPANDED THE ENHANCED RISK TO INCLUDE ALL
AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR, TAPERING TO SLIGHT RISK
FARTHER SOUTH OVER MUCH OF OUR REMAINING CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF A FEW COUNTIES IN DEEP EAST TX. PARTICULARLY CONCERNING IS THE
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL POSSIBLY NEAR 3" IN DIAMETER OVER PARTS OF NE
TEXAS AND ADJACENT AREAS OF EXTREME SW AR AND NW LA WHERE THE BEST
DEEP-LAYER IS LIKELY TO RESIDE. AS INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED DURING
THE AFTERNOON, THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL FORMATION
INITIALLY TO THE WEST OVER NORTH CENTRAL TX WITH GRADUAL EASTWARD
EXPANSION INTO OUR REGION. THUS, THE THREAT OF A FEW TORNADOES IS
CERTAINLY IN PLAY AS WELL FOR AREAS MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF I-20.
AS THE EVENT EVOLVES INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THESE STORMS
MAY EVOLVE/MERGE INTO AN MCS WITH AN EXPANSIVE THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS FARTHER SOUTH OF I-20. HOWEVER, MUCH WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON WHAT HAPPENS EARLIER IN THE EVENT SO THE FORECAST REMAINS VERY
COMPLEX AND DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN IN REGARD TO TIMING AND OVERALL
IMPACTS. REGARDLESS, THE BEST ADVICE IS TO PLAN FOR AN ACTIVE NEXT
24 HOURS OF WEATHER THAT MAY EXTEND INTO WEDNESDAY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-20 AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY, THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH NEAR
THE COAST BEFORE STALLING. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT NE ACROSS BAJA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND TX BY
LATE WEEK WITH ABUNDANT PACIFIC MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH. AS A RESULT, EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER TO PERSIST WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF EARLY IN THE WEEKEND ON SATURDAY. THE GOOD
NEWS IS SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK, AND RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 1-3 INCHES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THIS WEEKEND.
/19/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE...TRIED TO FOLLOW THE TIMING AND OUTPUT OF
THE HRRR AS IT HAS BEEN THE ONE MODEL THAT HAS OUTPERFORMED THE
OTHER CAM OUTPUT OVER THE LAST 12HRS OR SO. HAVING SAID THAT, DID
DELAY VCTS ACROSS MOST TERMINALS UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT
ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. CURRENTLY MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND RETURN TO LOW VFR
HEIGHTS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION BUT THEN RETURN TO MVFR WITH
CONVECTION TOWARDS THE SECOND HALF OF THIS TAF PACKAGE. LOOK FOR
SSE TO SSW WINDS TODAY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 10-15KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NE TX TERMINAL LOCATIONS.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BY NEEDED BY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 89 69 78 61 / 50 70 60 60
MLU 89 69 81 60 / 50 70 60 70
DEQ 80 57 74 54 / 80 80 30 20
TXK 87 65 76 58 / 80 80 40 40
ELD 85 63 76 55 / 80 80 50 50
TYR 88 67 75 62 / 50 60 40 50
GGG 88 67 76 61 / 50 60 60 60
LFK 91 70 84 65 / 20 20 50 70
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...13
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