769
FXUS64 KSHV 281956
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
256 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
..NEW SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND AFTER SUNSET.
- RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SUNDAY ARE LIKELY TO RANGE AT 0.50-1.25
INCHES WITH HIGHER TOTALS FURTHER EAST, CLOSER TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
- DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND WITH ABOVE-
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE
(LOWER 90S).
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
ONGOING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE MOSTLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR WITH SOME HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING A NEW BATCH OF STORMS THIS EVENING THAT DRIFT INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED
STREET FLOODING CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH SOME PWAT VALUES
APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES. WITH ALL OF THIS OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY,
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S. /16/
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
THE SEASONALLY PESKY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE DISPLACED BY
RIDGING LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS IN FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS TEXAS. AS IT DOES SO, UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING WILL TRANSIT ITS PERIPHERY, DELIVERING A GLANCING
BLOW WITH CONVECTION ACROSS OKLAHOMA ZONES ON TUESDAY (WITH SOME
CONVECTION POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY). OTHERWISE, LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF A NEW WEATHER PATTERN INTO
MID-JUNE. /16/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH BASED MVFR CIGS OVER PORTIONS OF SW AR/N LA
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, EVEN AS AREAS OF -RA WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA DEVELOP
OVER E TX, AND GRADUALLY SPREAD ENE INTO PORTIONS OF N LA. VARIOUS
CU AND LOW AC CIGS WILL PERSIST THOUGH IN AND NEAR THIS INCREASING
CONVECTION, WITH THE COLUMN GRADUALLY SATURATING FROM THE TOP
DOWN. AS A RESULT, SOME MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING OVER
PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX, AND GRADUALLY SPREAD N AND E LATE THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT, QUICKLY FALLING TO IFR (WITH REDUCED VSBYS) OVERNIGHT
AREAWIDE AS THE AREAS OF -SHRA WITH EMBEDDED -TSRA PERSIST. THIS
CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM W TO E ACROSS E TX
BY/AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY, EVENTUALLY DIMINISHING ACROSS N LA/SRN
AR BY THE END OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. ONCE THE CONVECTION ENDS,
SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS IS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS WILL
LINGER INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. NE OR VRB WINDS AROUND 5KTS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LT/VRB AFTER 00Z. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EVENING AND AFTER SUNSET. /16/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 70 87 70 83 / 40 40 30 10
MLU 68 85 70 82 / 60 60 30 20
DEQ 63 83 59 81 / 10 40 20 0
TXK 67 85 65 83 / 20 40 30 10
ELD 64 84 64 82 / 30 50 40 10
TYR 68 86 67 81 / 30 20 30 10
GGG 66 86 66 82 / 30 30 30 10
LFK 67 87 70 83 / 40 40 30 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...15
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