414
FXUS64 KSHV 160544
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1244 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BREAKING DOWN THROUGH THE REST OF
THIS WEEK ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION, ALLOWING FOR NEAR-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
- INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE
REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. DAYS 1-7 RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
MOST LIKELY IN THE 0.25-1 INCH RANGE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WORK WEEK WITH CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASING
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A RESULT. ALOFT, THIS IS ALSO DUE TO
THE BEGINNING OF A SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHIFT WHERE TROUGHING TAKES
HOLD ACROSS MORE OF THE GREAT PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM FLOW INTO THE
AREA WILL GAIN A NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT, PROPAGATING ENOUGH
VORTICITY/PERTURBATIONS IN THIS FLOW TO ENHANCE CONVECTION AFTER
WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM AND LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST A PRIMARILY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE PATTERN WITH SOME LINGERING STORMS
OVERNIGHT BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS IMPULSES CONTINUE TO SHIFT
ACROSS THE AREA AND STIMULATE CONVECTION. ALTOGETHER THIS ACTIVITY
WILL ALLOW FOR A REPRIEVE FROM ABOVE-NORMAL LATE SUMMER HEAT WITH
TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS IN THE LOW-TO-MID 90S BY THIS WEEKEND. /16/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
FOR THE 16/00Z TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THIS
EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HOWEVER, MODELS CONTINUE
TO HINT AT SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA AND
SOUTH ARKANSAS AROUND DAYBREAK. SO, DECIDED TO ADD VCSH AT
KMLU/KSHV/KELD. TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD, ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE SAME AREAS, AND POSSIBLY MOVE INTO EAST TEXAS.
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON VCTS AT KTYR/KGGG, BUT INCLUDE IT AT ALL OF
THE REMAINING SITES. /20/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 95 72 94 72 / 20 20 10 10
MLU 95 70 94 69 / 20 20 20 10
DEQ 93 66 92 66 / 20 20 20 10
TXK 95 70 94 69 / 20 20 10 10
ELD 93 67 93 67 / 20 20 20 10
TYR 92 70 92 70 / 20 20 10 10
GGG 93 69 93 69 / 20 20 10 10
LFK 94 70 94 69 / 20 20 20 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...20
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page