042
FXUS64 KSHV 242007
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
307 PM CDT WED APR 24 2024
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT WED APR 24 2024
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE OVERHEAD TONIGHT, WITH THE
APEX OF THE RIDGE CENTERING ITSELF BY TOMORROW. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS TO SKYROCKET, WITH SOME LOCATIONS REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER-80S INTO FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO TEMPORARILY
"SHUT OFF" RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE REGION, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEING IN OUR FAR NORTH
ZONES, AT THE TIP OF THE RIDGE. HOWEVER, THIS RIDGE WILL NOT BE
LONG LIVED, AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING IS RAMPING UP IN FULL FORCE
TO OUR WEST, SETTING THE STAGE FOR A MULTI-DAY SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT IN THE LONG-TERM.
/44/
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT WED APR 24 2024
BLUF: SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN IN THE LONG-TERM. MUCH
WEATHER, MANY WORDS, LONG DISCUSSION. WOW.
BY FRIDAY MORNING, A POTENT LOW PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE WORKING
ITS WAY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST, WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING DOWN
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BE THE CATALYST
FOR OUR FIRST ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE I-30 CORRIDOR. THE ENVIRONMENT OVERHEAD
WILL BE INCREDIBLY PRIMED, WITH PEAK INSTABILITY VALUES OVER 2000
J/KG, AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 7.0 C/KM. ANY STORMS THAT ARE
ABLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES AND BECOME MORE ROBUST WILL BE CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AT FACE
VALUE APPEAR TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF A TORNADO THREAT, BUT SHEAR
VALUES AREN'T ALL THERE TO TRULY SUPPORT ONE. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
HODOGRAPH CURVATURE, A TORNADO THREAT CAN'T ENTIRELY BE
DISCOUNTED. THE ONE "KNOCK" AGAINST THIS EVENT, IF YOU WILL, IS
THAT THE BEST FORCING IS INCREDIBLY OFFSET WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
WAY OFF TO THE NORTH.
A SIMILAR SETUP WILL OCCUR INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY IN
THE S. PLAINS, WITH A SMALL SECTION OF OUR AREA HIGHLIGHTED IN
ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK. THIS SEVERE THREAT SEEMS TO BE THE LEAST
"WORRISOME" OF THE THREE, AS THE LOW PRESSURE WILL TAKE OFF TO THE
NE LIKE A ROCKET, LEAVING VERY LITTLE ROOM FOR OUR REGION TO SEE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OF THE SEVERE VARIETY. REGARDLESS, STORMS HERE
WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
THE LAST OF OUR SEVERE CHANCES LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUNDAY, WHEN THE TROUGH FINALLY GETS A
SOLID KICK IN THE PANTS AND EJECTS EAST. HERE, THE ENVIRONMENT
OVERHEAD WILL BE RATHER SIMILAR TO WHAT'S OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE SHEAR VALUES FROM A TORNADO STANDPOINT ARE
SLIGHTLY BETTER HERE, WHEN COMPARED TO FRIDAY. AGAIN, THE BEST
FORCING LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE NORTH, BUT THAT
DOESN'T MEAN THE WHOLE EVENT WILL BE SPOILED BECAUSE OF IT. IN
TURN, ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS.
THE LAST THING WORTH MENTIONING HERE IN THIS ENDLESS LONG-TERM
DISCUSSION WILL BE FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE EXTENDED PERIODS OF RAINFALL, WIDESPREAD 3-5
INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE DOWN TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR. GIVEN
HEAVIER CONVECTION, HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION, PARTICULARLY IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES.
/44/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT WED APR 24 2024
FOR THE 24/18Z TAFS...DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION,
LOW VFR CONDITIONS HAVE SETTLED INTO THE AREA. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AT ALL STATIONS EXCEPT KLFK THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. EVENTUALLY, LOW CIGS WILL RETURN AROUND DAYBREAK AT KLFK
AND KTYR, WITH VCSH AT KELD/KTXK BY THE END OF PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
/20/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 65 85 69 85 / 0 0 0 30
MLU 63 84 65 85 / 0 10 0 10
DEQ 62 81 64 76 / 20 20 20 80
TXK 65 85 68 82 / 10 10 10 60
ELD 61 83 64 83 / 10 10 0 20
TYR 65 81 69 81 / 0 0 0 70
GGG 64 83 69 83 / 0 0 0 50
LFK 62 84 69 84 / 0 0 0 30
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...20
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