662
FXUS64 KSHV 051119
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
519 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80'S FOR SOME.
- RAIN PROSPECTS ARE LOW AS THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP
LOOKS TO BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
- A STRONG SIGNAL IS PRESENT FOR WHAT COULD BE THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE FALL SEASON TO THIS POINT BY THE END OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
A QUIET EVENING IS PRESENT ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION AS
SATELLITE ONLY DEPICTS WHAT APPEARS TO BE LEFT OVER AIRCRAFT
CONTRAIL FROM FLIGHTS OVERHEAD PASSING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE FA. THE 00Z SOUNDING INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE FOR THIS CITING
THE CLOSER T/TD RELATIONSHIP IN THE OUTPUT ALOFT. IF NOT FOR
THAT, CLEAR SKIES WOULD LIKELY BE THE THEME HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THAT BEING SAID, LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES, COMBINED WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE BRIEF CIRRUS
ALOFT, MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG THROUGH SUNRISE.
THIS SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY THOUGH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
BY THE AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING UP INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 70'S, WITH A FEW STRAY 80'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION,
THOUGH THIS MAINLY APPLIES FOR THE BIGGER METROS OF THE FA.
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY, THE THEME OF GRADUAL WARMING AS SEEN
IN THE AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL ALSO CARRY OVER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS NOW IN THE 50'S AREAWIDE. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY, AND WITH AN INCREASE IN LOCAL DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, FOG POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE GREATEST ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND EASTERN ZONES OF THE FA THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AM.
HI-RES DOES SUGGEST THAT SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP
WITHIN THE BROAD PATCHY AREAS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE FORECAST. THIS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES. THIS
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF A
DRAMATIC COOL DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
COME SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST SHIFTS TOWARDS
A VERY FALL-LIKE COOL DOWN AS A BLAST OF COLDER AIR SURGES
SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL RETURN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS TO THE 60'S AS
EARLY AS SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY IN THE 50'S AREAWIDE BY
MONDAY. THIS OF COURSE COMES WITH A SHIFT IN OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES AS LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 30'S FOR MANY BOTH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME TIME TO WATCH AND SEE JUST HOW
COLD OUR TEMPERATURES MAY DROP, BUT FOR NOW, THE PRESENT SIGNAL IS
STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME CONFIDENCE THAT SOME AREAS OF THE FA
MAY SEE THEIR FIRST ATTEMPT AT TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING (32 DEG
F). ONE NOTE TO ADD IS THAT WHEN WE TRADITIONALLY DISCUSS
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWNS VIA STRONGER COLD FRONTS, THEY OFTEN COME
WITH A SEVERE THREAT. THANKFULLY FOR NOW, TIMING OF THE FROPA
COMBINED WITH MOISTURE DISPLACEMENT LOOKS TO AVOID SUCH A
SCENARIO. THAT BEING SAID, VICINITY TO WEAKER BOUNDARIES BY THE
END OF THE WEEK MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR
STORMS EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA.
53
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 517 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
THIS MORNING TO BECOME SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY 05/15Z. WINDS
TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 06/00Z. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD. /05/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST MON NOV 3 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 80 55 80 64 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 78 52 79 60 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 77 50 77 57 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 80 54 79 62 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 76 48 76 58 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 79 57 80 62 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 79 53 80 61 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 80 55 81 62 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...05
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