350
FXUS64 KSHV 241054
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
554 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PROLONGED DRY CONDITIONS WILL
MAINTAIN AN ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISK THROUGHOUT THE 7-DAY
FORECAST PERIOD.
- THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL AND GROWING RAINFALL DEFICIT
WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DROUGHT DEGRADATION THROUGH THE END OF
THIS MONTH.
- LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE JUST BEYOND THE NEXT 7 DAYS SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN CLOSER TO HALLOWEEN INTO
EARLY NOVEMBER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING
SEASONABLY WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO AVERAGE IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO BRING INCREASED CLOUD-COVER TO THE REGION.
HOWEVER, WITH INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE TROUGH,
DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.
AN UPPER-RIDGE TO REBUILD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX ON WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING A RETURN OF SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S THROUGH THURSDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE PREVAILING
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS THE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAINLY EAST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN DRY AIR
ACROSS THE REGION, ALLOWING OVERNIGHT LOWS TO AVERAGE IN THE
LOWER 50S. HOWEVER, TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN FIRST ACROSS EAST TEXAS, DRIVING
OVERNIGHT LOWS UPWARDS INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THIS AREA BY
THURSDAY MORNING.
THE COMBINATION OF ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND A DRY AIRMASS
PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL MAINTAIN AN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR WILDFIRES. FORTUNATELY, LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD PREVENT WILDFIRE ACTIVITY FROM BECOMING
UNMANAGEABLE. /05/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
STILL ONLY VERY HIGH AND THIN CIRRUS IS ALL WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL
WITH TODAY ACROSS OUR AIRSPACE. SOME HINT OF SOME LOW LEVEL
RETURNS ALONG WITH FOG DEVELOPING INLAND OF THE SW LA COAST
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE LFK TERMINAL THIS MORNING. MODEL TIME
HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A VERY WEAK CU
FIELD LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY OUR NE TX TERMINALS BUT
CHOSE TO LEAVE THIS OUT OF THE 12Z PACKAGE AS NO CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED IF WE SEE THIS CLOUD COVER AT ALL. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME SOUTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER
10KTS.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND IN THE EVENT
OF WILDFIRE DEVELOPMENT.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 85 54 80 55 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 85 49 81 51 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 87 50 82 50 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 86 53 81 53 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 86 48 81 49 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 85 56 81 55 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 86 52 80 51 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 85 53 80 53 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...13
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