759
FXUS64 KSHV 040102
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
702 PM CST WED DEC 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1018 AM CST WED DEC 3 2025
- ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD RAIN WILL START FALLING THIS EVENING,
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- CONDITIONS STAY DRY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
SUNSHINE RETURNING TO THE REGION BY MONDAY.
- WARM WEATHER MAY BE ON THE HORIZON AGAIN BEYOND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1018 AM CST WED DEC 3 2025
A FEW ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO TODAY'S FORECAST: CLOUD COVER
HAS BEEN BUMPED UP AND HIGH TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN
LOWERED TO ALIGN WITH RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. THE
PERSISTANT STRATUS DECK WILL KEEP THE REGION COOLER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED, BUT OTHER PARAMETERS ARE CURRENTLY ON
TRACK.
AS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD, LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BRING RAIN BACK TO THE REGION
BEGINNING THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BE A SLOW AND STEADY RAIN
LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS, MAKING
FLOODING NOT A CONCERN FOR THIS EVENT. LUCKILY, TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT LOOK TO STAY MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING, WHICH LIMITS THE RISK
OF FREEZING PRECIP. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE THE FAR
NORTHERN PORTION OF MCCURTAIN CO, OK WHO COULD SEE SOME DRIZZLE
TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE THIS
POSSIBILITY INTO THE FORECAST, BUT IS WORTH MENTIONING. MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE LIKELY TO SEE AT
LEAST 1" OF RAIN IN THE COMING DAYS, WITH SOME AREAS FURTHEST
SOUTHEAST POSSIBLY SEEING TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2". HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOONS WILL STAY IN THE 40S AND 50S
THROUGH FRIDAY THANKS TO THE RAIN.
RAIN SHOULD BE COMPLETELY CLEAR OF THE ARK-LA-TX BY SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH CLOUDS LINGERING UNTIL SUNDAY. CALM NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP NEXT WEEK DRY WITH NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR AREAS NORTH OF
I-20 COULD CREEP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S WITHOUT THE INSULATING
CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER, CPC IS HINTING AT ANOTHER RETURN TO ABOVE-
AVERAGE TEMPS AND BELOW- AVERAGE PRECIP FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD.
57
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CST WED DEC 3 2025
FOR THE 04/00Z TAF PERIOD...REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION, AS LOW CIGS CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA.
EVENTUALLY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE, FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS, WILL PUSH
INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME THUNDER AT KLFK AND
POSSIBLE UP TO OUR I-20 CORRIDOR SITES. THE RAIN MAY LET UP AFTER
DAYBREAK, BUT SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN, BEFORE ANOTHER PUSH
OF RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION. WE SHOULD SEE THE BACK EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION MOVE INTO EAST TEXAS AND MAYBE KSHV/KTXK BY THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. /20/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 45 48 39 51 / 90 80 40 20
MLU 42 47 39 50 / 90 90 70 30
DEQ 35 45 31 48 / 10 30 20 10
TXK 40 44 35 49 / 50 60 30 10
ELD 37 43 32 47 / 70 80 50 10
TYR 44 48 37 52 / 70 70 20 10
GGG 42 48 36 51 / 90 80 40 10
LFK 45 52 39 52 / 90 80 50 30
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...20
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