536  
FXUS64 KSHV 042353  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
653 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025  
 
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE  
ARKLATEX THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT  
EXPECTED.  
 
- HEAT WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH HEAT  
INDICES POSSIBLY REACHING THE TRIPLE DIGITS, POSING A POTENTIAL  
HAZARD FOR EXTENDED OUTDOOR ACTIVITY.  
 
- AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RESUME SUNDAY AND CONTINUE  
INTO NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025  
 
RECENT RADAR IMAGERY HAS A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE TX/LA STATE LINE,  
WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND BEING NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THESE  
WEAK SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE  
REGION TODAY. EXACT TIMING AND COVERAGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN, AS  
THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE SHOWERS ARE EXTREMELY WEAK. LIKE THE  
TYPICAL SUMMER AFTERNOON STORMS, THESE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH  
THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH EAST TEXAS LIKELY BEING THE LAST TO DRY  
UP. THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ARE LOOKING TO STAY DRY ENOUGH AFTER THE  
SHOWERS DIE FOR FIREWORK SHOWS TO CONTINUE AS PLANNED.  
 
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS STAYED IN PLACE OVERHEAD IN RECENT  
DAYS WILL BEGIN TO LOSE AMPLITUDE AND PROGRESS EASTWARD BEGINNING  
ON SATURDAY. BUT THE INTENSIFYING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT  
SOUTHWEST WILL REPLACE THE EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE IN PORTIONS OF  
EAST TEXAS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THE LACK OF WIDESPREAD RAIN  
AND CLOUD COVER, ALONG WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE  
SURFACE, WILL BEGIN ANOTHER WARMING TREND FOR THE ARK-LA-TX.  
AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S,  
WHICH WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES OF 100+. SEVERAL AREAS  
WILL BE FLIRTING WITH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL LIKELY BE  
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE IN PLAY DESPITE THE HIGH PRESSURE  
DOMINATING THE FORECAST. HOWEVER, THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH  
PRESSURE OUT WEST LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH TO LARGELY INHIBIT  
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR AREAS WEST OF I-49. THIS MAY CHANGE  
LATER IN THE WEEK, AS MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO HINT AT A SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH RIDING THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH PARTS OF THE MISSOURI  
VALLEY. THERE ARE PLENTY OF "IF"S IN THAT SCENARIO THAT WOULD  
NEED TO BE IN PLACE TO BRING SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. BUT  
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S WILL HAVE TO DO FOR THE TIME BEING. /57/  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025  
 
FOR THE 05/00Z TAF PERIOD, ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION  
WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER THROUGH EARLY TO MID EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY  
DIMINISHING A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE  
EXPECTED TO PERSIST WHILE MAINTAINING VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR  
AIRSPACE, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG AT A FEW SITES NEAR  
DAYBREAK WITH RECENT RAINFALL CONTRIBUTING TO MOIST SOILS. BEYOND  
THAT, LOOK FOR A CU FIELD TO REDEVELOP AREAWIDE BY LATE MORNING  
WITH LIGHT S/SE WINDS GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN 5-10 KTS DURING  
THE DAYTIME HOURS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION LOOKS  
TO BE MUCH MORE SPARSE IN COVERAGE ON SATURDAY SO DID NOT INCLUDE  
ANY MENTION OF VCSH/VCTS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.  
 
/19/  
 
 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT  
 
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2025  
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
SHV 76 96 77 96 / 10 0 0 20  
MLU 74 96 75 97 / 0 0 0 20  
DEQ 70 93 71 93 / 10 10 0 20  
TXK 73 97 75 97 / 10 10 0 10  
ELD 73 96 73 96 / 0 0 0 20  
TYR 74 93 73 94 / 20 10 0 10  
GGG 74 94 73 95 / 20 10 0 10  
LFK 74 95 73 96 / 20 10 0 20  
 
 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
AR...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...57  
AVIATION...19  
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