654
FXUS64 KSHV 301139
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
539 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
- TODAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY UNTIL NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SURGE
OF VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR PUSHES INTO OUR FOUR-STATE AREA
TONIGHT. MELTING OF LINGERING ICE AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE.
- BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL IMPACT OUR ENTIRE AREA AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WIND CHILLY SATURDAY AND COLDER OVERNIGHT.
PEOPLE, PIPES, PETS, AND PLANTS NEED TO BE PROTECTED FROM THE
HAZARDOUS COLD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
WE HAVE HAD ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS OUR DOORSTEPS OVERNIGHT
WITH GUSTY NW WINDS DOING THE PUSHING. THE WARM AIR LIFTED AWAY
WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A LOW CLOUD DECK AROUND 5-6KFT OVERNIGHT
EAST OF I-49. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING DOWN AGAIN THIS
WEEKEND WITH 40S TODAY AND 30S FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY. THE WIND
CHILL ADDITION WILL BE FELT, BUT OUR RECENTLY SLEET/ICE MELT
SOAKED SOILS WILL BEGIN TO DRY IN THE LOWERING HUMIDITY AS OUR DEW
POINTS CRATER.
LOWS WILL BE ABOUT AVERAGE THIS MORNING PLUS THE CHILL AND HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGES FOR LATE JANUARY. AS
THE CENTER OF THE AIR MASS ARRIVES OUR SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SHIFTING TO N AND NE DURING SATURDAY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. THE CORE OF THE CONTINENTAL AIR WILL BRING LOWS BACK TO
20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE RIGHT AHEAD OF THE GROUND HOG STICKING
HIS NOSE OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT SE WINDS
STIRRING EARLY ON SUNDAY WILL SHIFT TO SW FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
KEEP S/SW FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW MONTH WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
A SHADOW TO BE SEEN BRINGING MORE WINTER. ;^)
HOWEVER, THIS IS STILL A LA NINA WINTER AND THE TWO WEEK
OUTLOOK ACCORDS WITH BELOW AVERAGE RAINFALL AND AROUND AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. BURN BANS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY RETURN AS WE DRY OUT
TOO MUCH AGAIN WITH POTENTIAL WILDFIRE IMPACTS ON THE WINDIEST
DAYS AHEAD. THE DRY ARCTIC AIR WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT ANYTHING
ELEVATED AND YET NOT GREEN YET, WHILE LEAVES WILL RETAIN MORE
MOISTURE HAVING BEEN PINNED THE COLD WET SOIL LATELY. SO OUR
WINDOW FOR BURNING WILL BE OPEN FOR A WHILE, BUT CAN'T LAST LONG,
SO ENJOY THE CHILLY DAYS "WINTER CLEANING" AND WAX NOT TIRED OR
THE WIND WILL SCATTER ALL ONCE MORE.
OUR NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BE PACIFIC AND NOT SOLELY ARCTIC.
SOUTHERLY WINDS QUICKLY BRING BACK NORMS IN THE 50S LOWS IN THE
ABOVE FREEZING. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP THE HEAT IN WITH A
BIT MORE NEEDED RAINFALL. THEN IS DRY FRONTS WARM COLD, WARM COLD
AND WARMER NOT SO COLD FOR OUR FOUR-STATE AREA INTO MID FEBRUARY.
BY THE WAY IT'S ABOUT 7 WEEKS RIGHT NOW UNTIL SPRING AND YOU THINK
THE GROUND HOG WOULD BE HALF RIGHT WITH THIS YES OR NO
PROPOSITION, BUT HE'S ONLY 40% RIGHT ANYWAY. ONE'S THING IS FOR
SURE OUR DROUGHT MONITOR'S BREAK IS ABOUT OVER UNTIL WE GO NEUTRAL
OR EL NINO. /24/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 518 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
CLOUD COVER IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING,
WITH CONDITIONS STILL VFR. AN AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS IS STILL
ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP FROM KSHV TO KELD AND KMLU, ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM ON THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THIS
CEILING. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIFT BACK TO LOW-END VFR AND
SCATTER INTO THE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH SOME TERMINALS MAY STRUGGLE
TO IMPROVE BKN SKIES. REINFORCING SCT-BKN LOW-END VFR TO HIGHER-
END MVFR WILL THEN MOVE IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE N THROUGH THE PERIOD, SUSTAINED AROUND
10KT TODAY WITH PERIODIC GUSTS TO NEAR 20KT. GUSTIER NORTH WIND
WILL THEN DEVELOP AFTER 06Z/31 AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD, WITH GUSTS 20-25KT.
CK
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS CALENDAR
CHANGING WINTER WEEKEND. /24/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 47 22 34 22 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 43 20 32 17 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 43 11 32 14 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 44 18 32 20 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 42 16 31 15 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 47 21 34 22 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 47 20 35 20 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 50 24 38 21 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST SATURDAY
FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST SATURDAY
FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST SATURDAY
FOR OKZ077.
TX...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST SATURDAY
FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...23
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