267
FXUS64 KSHV 192318
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
518 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1058 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AND/OR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK, WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1058 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025
A CLASSIC SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. A DEEP, CUT-OFF TROUGH WILL SPIN OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRONOUNCED SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WHILE THE AXIS
OF DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS WEST OVER CENTRAL TX AND OK, THE NAEFS
IS STILL FORECASTING MEAN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR THE 99TH
PERCENTILE ENCROACHING ON THE ARKLATEX REGION TONIGHT, SETTLING
MORE INTO THE 90-97TH PERCENTILE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A
QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE
CWA, RUNNING GENERALLY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM WEST TX INTO
THE OZARKS. AMPLE, DEEP-LAYER WARM ADVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR
AND PERIODS OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON IN EAST TX (NEAR LUFKIN), WITH RAIN
SHOWERS (AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS) INCREASING IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL FAVOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF
SHREVEPORT, DECREASING TO MINIMAL (~10%) PROBABILITIES TO THE
SOUTHEAST NEAR ALEXANDRIA.
DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL MODELS ALL INDICATE A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE THURSDAY, MAINTAINING THE
POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL AVERAGE LESS THAN 1" ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS CAN
BE EXPECTED OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA WHERE NBM
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 2" OF RAINFALL ARE IN THE 30-50%. BOTH
THE REFS AND HREF LOCALIZED PROBABILITY MATCHED MEAN FIELDS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SWATH OF 2-4" THROUGH THURSDAY
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR (MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE). RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA,
AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
TROUGH. THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY DOESN"T LOOK TO SCOUR MOISTURE
FROM THE REGION COMPLETELY, SO POPS (20-50%) WILL PERSIST PRETTY
MUCH AREA WIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
BE MORE IN LINE WITH CLIMATOLOGY OVER THE WEEKEND, LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT WILL
LIKELY EXCEED THE 90TH PERCENTILE ONCE AGAIN AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEK AS THE SOUTHWESTERN TROUGH OPENS UP AND APPROACHES THE
ARKLATEX. THE RESULT IS A BUMP IN QPF VALUES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S BUT WILL FOLLOW A
VERY SLOW, DOWNWARD TREND THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE
REALLY ISN'T ALL THAT MUCH SPREAD IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THE
INNER-QUARTILE RANGES (25TH-75TH PERCENTILE) GENERALLY 5-9
DEGREES. HOWEVER, THESE RANGES DO BEGIN TO INCREASE FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH A POTENTIAL
PATTERN SHIFT AWAY FROM THE CURRENT SPLIT FLOW PATTERN. THE
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS GENERALLY INDICATE THE MEAN TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS AROUND THE MIDWEEK PERIOD, BUT THERE ARE SOME
OUTLIER MEMBERS THAT KEEP THE TROUGH WELL TO THE WEST. A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WOULD LIMIT RAIN CHANCES MID/LATE NEXT WEEK
(~15-20% POPS), BUT THIS SLOWER SCENARIO WOULD LINGER SLIGHTLY
HIGHER POPS THROUGH LATE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MAINLY IN THE 70S THROUGH THE WEEKEND, COOLING INTO THE 60S
NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE 50S.
MJ
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 512 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
FOR THE 20/00Z TAFS, SCATTERED LOWER VFR CLOUDS WITH BROKEN HIGH
CLOUD DECKS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AHEAD OF
INCOMING RAINFALL IMPACTS. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FROM THE WEST
LATE OVERNIGHT, WITH IMPACTS AT KTXK, KTYR, KGGG AND KSHV MOST
LIKELY TO BEGIN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAYBREAK, CONTINUING INTO THE
DAY AND SLOWLY SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST. SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF UP TO 5 KTS AND REACHING SPEEDS
OF 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE.
/26/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1058 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 68 81 67 81 / 30 30 80 50
MLU 64 80 65 81 / 10 10 50 60
DEQ 63 74 60 75 / 80 80 90 40
TXK 67 78 65 78 / 70 60 90 50
ELD 64 77 62 77 / 30 30 70 60
TYR 68 80 64 77 / 60 40 90 50
GGG 67 80 64 79 / 50 40 80 50
LFK 65 82 65 82 / 20 30 70 70
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...26
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