074
FXUS64 KSHV 072008
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
308 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2020
SHORT TERM
/TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
CONVECTION IS STARTING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE AID OF DIURNAL HEATING ALONG WITH A UPPER LOW DRIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS EAST TEXAS INTO NORTH LOUISIANA/SOUTH ARKANSAS.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PWAT'S ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN
ABOVE 2 INCHES. THIS COULD MATERIALIZE INTO AN ISOLATED FLASH
FLOOD THREAT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND NORTH/CENTRAL
LOUISIANA, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH SINCE THE
THREAT IS ISOLATED.
WHILE THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING, ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF E TX/N LA/SRN AR NEAR THE
WEAK H700-500 SHEAR AXIS. THE THREAT REMAINS FOR A LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLOOD THREAT. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY, GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD OUT OF THE REGION. WITH THE RAINFALL DIMINISHING, MAX
TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT MORE THAN TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO POSSIBLY LOW 90S. /20/
LONG TERM
/THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
STARTING 12Z THURSDAY...AS WE MOVE INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST WE WILL SEE THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE
AREA DIMINISH AND A WARMING TREND AS WE HEAD INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE TROUGH THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA THROUGH THE PREVIOUS WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF THIS
WEEK WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME, WE WILL
SEE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEGIN
TO BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS AND STRETCH EASTWARD INTO
OUR AREA. THIS WILL USHER SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND SOME
WARMER TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY REMAINING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL COME ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHEAST ZONES AS A FEW
WEAK DISTURBANCES COULD MOVE ACROSS THIS AREA ON THE EASTERN FLANK
OF THE RIDGE AXIS.
THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND AND BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT,
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. HEAT
INDEX VALUES COULD REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
FOR PORTIONS OF OUR WESTERN ZONES, AND AREAWIDE BY FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WE COULD SEE AMBIENT
TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 90S TO UPPER 90S, WHICH COULD PUSH THAT
HEAT INDEX VALUE INTO MORE OF AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CATEGORY. AS
SUCH, WILL NEED TO WATCH THESE TRENDS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. /33/
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 131 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2020/
AVIATION...
A MIX BAG OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS IFR/MVFR/VFR CIGS ARE
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE REGION AS AREAS OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP AND SPREAD E ACROSS MUCH OF E TX/N LA/EXTREME SRN AR.
THROUGH THE MORNING. DECIDED TO CONTINUED VCTS/VCSH MENTIONS AT
MOST OF THE SITES WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA DURING THE PERIOD.
COVERAGE MAY DIMINISH A BIT AFTER SUNSET, BUT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED NEAR DAYBREAK AND TOWARDS THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. SSW WINDS 4-10KTS TODAY, EXCEPT GUSTY IN/NEAR THE
CONVECTION, WILL BECOME LT/VRB AFTER 00Z. /20/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 73 88 75 92 / 60 50 20 10
MLU 73 88 74 93 / 50 60 30 20
DEQ 71 88 73 92 / 30 50 20 10
TXK 72 87 74 90 / 50 60 30 10
ELD 71 87 74 91 / 60 70 30 10
TYR 74 90 75 91 / 50 30 10 0
GGG 73 89 74 92 / 60 40 20 0
LFK 75 93 75 95 / 30 30 10 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
20/33
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