589
FXUS64 KSHV 180626
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
126 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ARK-LA-TX
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, CLEARING OUT BY SUNDAY MORNING.
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE THEMSELVES KNOWN ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
- SUBSEQUENT WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MESS WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, BUT HIGHS LOOK TO STAY JUST ABOVE
NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THIS WEEK'S WEATHER HEADLINE
WILL PLAY OUT TOMORROW. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE DRIVING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS MIDDAY
ON SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE ITS WAY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE ARK-LA-TX DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WHERE UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS IS IN THE TIMING AND STORM
MODE OF THIS LINE. MOST MODELS ARE CONCLUDING THAT IMPACTS FOR OUR
CWA WILL BEGIN AROUND MID AFTERNOON AND LAST UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT. ONE DEVIATION FROM THIS TIMELINE IS THE NAMNST WITH A
SLOWER ARRIVAL TIME AND OVERALL PROPAGATION SPEED, SO EXACT
TIMING COULD VARY SLIGHTLY. THERE IS ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING STORM MODE. DAMAGING WINDS SEEM TO BE THE MOST LIKELY
HAZARD WITH THIS LINE BUT SOME CAM SOLUTIONS HAVE DISCREET CELLS
PRECEDING THE LINE. THIS SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN HIGHER DAMAGING
HAIL AND TORNADO THREATS IN ADDITION TO THE HIGH WINDS FROM THE
LINE. IN ADDITION, MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING THAT MORNING
CONVECTION IN THE REGION COULD BE AT PLAY, WHICH WOULD LIMIT LATER
DESTABILIZATION AND IMPACT OVERALL STORM SEVERITY. IT'S ALSO
WORTH MENTIONING THAT THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL CARRY A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT AS WELL. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED CONFIDENCE
THAT MORE OF THE REGION COULD SEE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AND
EXCEEDING 1" BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. URBAN AND LOW-LYING AREAS COULD
SEE A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING FROM THIS RAIN, ESPECIALLY IN HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.
TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THE FRONT'S EXIT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE BEAUTIFULLY AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH MUCH OF THE
REGION SEEING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. TEMPERATURES THIS LOW
UNFORTUNATELY LOOK TO BE LIMITED TO SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS
OFF ANOTHER WEAK WARMING TREND FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A FEW WEAK COLD FRONTS
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. ONE OF THESE FRONTS THAT IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY HAS BEEN INCREASINGLY ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SCATTERED
RAINFALL COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. WHILE IT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO
STAVE OFF DROUGHT, IT SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY UNDER
CONTROL THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
/57/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
FOR THE 18/06Z TAF PERIOD, VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR NOW ACROSS
OUR AREA TERMINALS, BUT MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COURSE
OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEEP TROUGH AND A COLD
FRONT ADVANCING INTO THE REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE TAF
PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION, LOOK FOR CIGS TO LOWER INTO THE
MVFR RANGE AT MOST TERMINALS WITH BRIEF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KLFK
AROUND DAYBREAK. THESE LOWER CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT BACK TOWARD
LOW VFR STATUS JUST PRIOR TO CONVECTION ARRIVING DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR NW TERMINALS (KTYR, KGGG, KTXK) AND SHORTLY
THEREAFTER AT KSHV, KLFK, KELD, AND KMLU BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
INCREASING S/SW WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 KTS ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF
THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHER GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20-25 KTS, POTENTIALLY
MUCH HIGHER INVOF OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION BY THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THIS EVENING. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO EXIT NW SITES BY
AROUND 19/00Z, BUT MAY LINGER ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE END OF THE PD.
/19/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT, POTENTIALLY MARKING OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT OF THIS FALL SEASON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 88 60 74 51 / 70 70 0 0
MLU 90 61 74 46 / 50 90 0 0
DEQ 82 49 70 42 / 90 40 0 0
TXK 86 54 73 48 / 80 60 0 0
ELD 86 54 71 44 / 70 90 0 0
TYR 84 56 73 50 / 80 40 0 0
GGG 87 56 73 48 / 80 60 0 0
LFK 88 59 77 48 / 80 60 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...19
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