717
FXUS64 KSHV 130020
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
720 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO REMAIN ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
- WHILE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN, RAIN AND CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR
MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
- UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND, RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES RETURNING INTO THE UPPER
90S. HOWEVER, SLIGHT AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION,
BUT, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LARGELY REMAIN BELOW THE 105 DEGREE
ADVISORY THRESHOLD, AS MORE CLOUD COVER AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL RETURN TODAY. IN FACT, ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ALREADY ONGOING ON RADAR AT THIS HOUR.
MOST OF IT HAS BEEN CONFINED TO OUR DEEP EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
ZONES TODAY. HOWEVER, WE ARE STARTING TO GET SOME RADAR RETURNS
ACROSS MCCURTAIN COUNTY, OKLAHOMA AND SW/SOUTH-CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IN RECENT DISCUSSIONS, AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SETTLE NEAR THE RED RIVER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS TROUGH, COMBINED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE
NORTHERN GULF ALONG THE TX/LA COASTS, SHOULD YIELD ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION.
PEAK COVERAGE SHOULD BE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS
WITH PEAK HEATING, BUT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION CAN'T BE RULED OUT
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WE SHOULDN'T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SEVERE WEATHER, BUT STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN
SOME OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION. ALSO, THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A MARGINAL THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH LIGHT
WINDS ALOFT, CONVECTION WILL BE SLOW MOVING, WHICH COULD RESULT
IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, AND INTO THE FIRST
OF NEXT WEEK, UPPER-RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE FOUR STATE
REGION. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S, WITH
HEAT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE STILL HINTING AT
SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR DIURNAL DRIVEN CONVECTION DURING THIS
PERIOD, WHICH COULD GIVE US SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. /20/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2025
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, VFR THIS EVENING EXCEPT FOR KTYR WITH
A TEMPO FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. WE HAVE MADE THE TRANSITITION FROM
EASTERLIES BACK TO WESTERLIES, ALBEIT WEAKLY SO. OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION MAY AFFECT KTXK WITH THE LATEST HRRR MODEL. OTHERWISE
WE WILL SEE ANOTHER GOOD ROUND MID TO LATE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE EXCEPT NEAR DOWNPOURS. /24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 77 94 77 94 / 20 30 20 30
MLU 74 95 74 94 / 30 40 20 60
DEQ 71 92 71 93 / 20 30 10 20
TXK 75 95 75 95 / 20 30 20 20
ELD 72 93 71 93 / 20 40 20 30
TYR 75 94 74 94 / 20 30 20 20
GGG 74 94 74 94 / 20 40 20 30
LFK 75 95 74 95 / 30 50 20 40
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...24
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