589  
FXUS64 KSHV 180626  
AFDSHV  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA  
126 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025  
 
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ARK-LA-TX  
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, CLEARING OUT BY SUNDAY MORNING.  
 
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE THEMSELVES KNOWN ON SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 
- SUBSEQUENT WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL MESS WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT  
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, BUT HIGHS LOOK TO STAY JUST ABOVE  
NORMAL.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025  
 
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THIS WEEK'S WEATHER HEADLINE  
WILL PLAY OUT TOMORROW. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE DRIVING  
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS MIDDAY  
ON SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE ITS WAY  
EASTWARD THROUGH THE ARK-LA-TX DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT  
HOURS. WHERE UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS IS IN THE TIMING AND STORM  
MODE OF THIS LINE. MOST MODELS ARE CONCLUDING THAT IMPACTS FOR OUR  
CWA WILL BEGIN AROUND MID AFTERNOON AND LAST UNTIL AROUND  
MIDNIGHT. ONE DEVIATION FROM THIS TIMELINE IS THE NAMNST WITH A  
SLOWER ARRIVAL TIME AND OVERALL PROPAGATION SPEED, SO EXACT  
TIMING COULD VARY SLIGHTLY. THERE IS ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY  
REGARDING STORM MODE. DAMAGING WINDS SEEM TO BE THE MOST LIKELY  
HAZARD WITH THIS LINE BUT SOME CAM SOLUTIONS HAVE DISCREET CELLS  
PRECEDING THE LINE. THIS SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN HIGHER DAMAGING  
HAIL AND TORNADO THREATS IN ADDITION TO THE HIGH WINDS FROM THE  
LINE. IN ADDITION, MODELS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING THAT MORNING  
CONVECTION IN THE REGION COULD BE AT PLAY, WHICH WOULD LIMIT LATER  
DESTABILIZATION AND IMPACT OVERALL STORM SEVERITY. IT'S ALSO  
WORTH MENTIONING THAT THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL CARRY A HEAVY RAIN  
THREAT AS WELL. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED CONFIDENCE  
THAT MORE OF THE REGION COULD SEE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AND  
EXCEEDING 1" BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. URBAN AND LOW-LYING AREAS COULD  
SEE A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING FROM THIS RAIN, ESPECIALLY IN HEAVY  
DOWNPOURS.  
 
TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THE FRONT'S EXIT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL  
BE BEAUTIFULLY AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH MUCH OF THE  
REGION SEEING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. TEMPERATURES THIS LOW  
UNFORTUNATELY LOOK TO BE LIMITED TO SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW KICKS  
OFF ANOTHER WEAK WARMING TREND FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  
LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A FEW WEAK COLD FRONTS  
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN  
THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. ONE OF THESE FRONTS THAT IS EXPECTED  
TUESDAY HAS BEEN INCREASINGLY ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SCATTERED  
RAINFALL COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. WHILE IT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO  
STAVE OFF DROUGHT, IT SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY UNDER  
CONTROL THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  
 
/57/  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025  
 
FOR THE 18/06Z TAF PERIOD, VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR NOW ACROSS  
OUR AREA TERMINALS, BUT MAJOR CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COURSE  
OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE THREAT OF STRONG TO  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEEP TROUGH AND A COLD  
FRONT ADVANCING INTO THE REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE TAF  
PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION, LOOK FOR CIGS TO LOWER INTO THE  
MVFR RANGE AT MOST TERMINALS WITH BRIEF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT KLFK  
AROUND DAYBREAK. THESE LOWER CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT BACK TOWARD  
LOW VFR STATUS JUST PRIOR TO CONVECTION ARRIVING DURING THE EARLY  
AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR NW TERMINALS (KTYR, KGGG, KTXK) AND SHORTLY  
THEREAFTER AT KSHV, KLFK, KELD, AND KMLU BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  
INCREASING S/SW WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 KTS ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF  
THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHER GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20-25 KTS, POTENTIALLY  
MUCH HIGHER INVOF OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION BY THIS AFTERNOON  
AND INTO THIS EVENING. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO EXIT NW SITES BY  
AROUND 19/00Z, BUT MAY LINGER ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE END OF THE PD.  
 
/19/  
 

 
   
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
 
 
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025  
 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH  
THIS EVENING WITH STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AHEAD  
OF A COLD FRONT, POTENTIALLY MARKING OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD SEVERE  
WEATHER THREAT OF THIS FALL SEASON.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
SHV 88 60 74 51 / 70 70 0 0  
MLU 90 61 74 46 / 50 90 0 0  
DEQ 82 49 70 42 / 90 40 0 0  
TXK 86 54 73 48 / 80 60 0 0  
ELD 86 54 71 44 / 70 90 0 0  
TYR 84 56 73 50 / 80 40 0 0  
GGG 87 56 73 48 / 80 60 0 0  
LFK 88 59 77 48 / 80 60 0 0  
 

 
   
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
OK...NONE.  
TX...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...57  
AVIATION...19  
 
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