112
FXUS64 KSHV 202351
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
551 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020
AVIATION
FOR THE 21/00Z TAFS, ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER PERSISTS. A COUPLE OF
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE STILL IN PLACE AT A COUPLE
OF TAF SITES, BUT MOST LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY IMPROVED INTO THE
VFR RANGE. THE CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFE AND SCATTER, AND VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AREAWIDE BY 21/06Z. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
PERIOD, BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS
BEFORE MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD SLOW TO 5 KTS OR
LESS JUST BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.
CN
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 241 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020/
SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
TRADE: THE FOUR-STATES REGION HAS ANNOUNCED TODAY THAT THEY'VE
TRADED THE COOL, CLOUDY, AND RAINY WEATHER TO THE EAST COAST. IN
RETURN, THE FOUR-STATES REGION WILL RECEIVE AN ARCTIC AIRMASS,
AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES.
CLOUD COVER IS ONGOING, AS DRY AIR IS SLOWLY FILTERING INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH TONIGHT, AS THIS DRY AIR WILL
FINALLY BE THE PREVAILING AIRMASS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR
THE SUN TO MAKE A TRIUMPHANT TOMORROW AND SATURDAY, WITH LITTLE
TO NO CLOUD COVER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT-TERM.
UNFORTUNATELY, YOU CAN SORT OF GUESS THAT I'VE LEAD OFF WITH THE
GOOD NEWS. THE BAD NEWS IS THAT THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE WINDS
TO A STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY DIRECTION, ALLOWING FOR COLD AIR
ADVECTION TO DOMINATE.
THE TEMPERATURES WILL REALLY BE THE ONLY WEATHER STORY THIS
SHORT-TERM PERIOD. BY TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET WITH THE
WIND AND LACK OF CLOUD COVER. LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE BELOW
FREEZING AREA WIDE, WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING IN TO 25-30 DEGREE
RANGE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN SIMILAR TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW NIGHT AS WELL. LOOK FOR THE LOWS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS OF FRIDAY TO BE IN THE 25-30 DEGREE RANGE. AFTERNOON HIGHS
TOMORROW WILL BE A LITTLE CHILLY, DEPENDING ON YOUR COLD
TOLERANCE. THE AREA WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S INTO THE LOWER
50S. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, THE WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT TO A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION, AND THE SUN WILL ALLOW THE GROUND TO WARM UP
A LITTLE. SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S, WITH CONTINUED WARMING AND UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNING
IN THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. /44/
LONG TERM.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
UPPER-RIDGE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR
INCREASED CLOUDINESS AS SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES ALOFT. TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S. A SURFACE AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW
ACROSS KANSAS TO SWING EAST BRINGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE ARKLATEX ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY TO APPROACH 60 DEGREES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT IN
THE LOW 50S. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BEHIND THE FRONT TO
NEAR 70 ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
ANOTHER UPPER-TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, WITH A LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE, ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX. TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S. ON WEDNESDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 50S WITH NEAR FREEZING OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THURSDAY MORNING
AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AREAWIDE.
/05/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 30 49 29 56 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 28 47 27 55 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 26 50 25 55 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 28 46 28 54 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 25 49 24 56 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 30 49 31 57 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 30 49 29 57 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 32 53 29 59 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
09/24
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