629
FXUS64 KSHV 110551
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1251 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THIS WEEK, WITH SOME OF THE
HOTTEST CONDITIONS OF THE SEASON POSSIBLE.
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE, BRINGING VERY LIMITED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CONTINUED DRYING TRENDS.
- THE HOTTER TEMPERATURES AND LACK OF RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO
DRY FUELS, INCREASING THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
TWO AREAS OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BECOME ONE OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN CONUS BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE STABLE PATTERN WILL WORK TO
INHIBIT ANY RAIN AND WORSEN HEAT THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S
AND LOW 100S, WHICH WILL QUICKLY BRING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE
MAIN QUESTION RIGHT NOW IS WHEN THE FIRST ADVISORY WILL BE
ISSUED. AS OF THE TIME OF WRITING, HEAT INDICES FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ARE GENERALLY AROUND 100-105. THE 105 THRESHOLD DOESN'T
SEEM TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A PRODUCT JUST YET BUT NEW
GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT COULD FORCE THE HAND OF THE MORNING SHIFT.
WITH TUESDAY LIKELY BEING THE COOLEST OF THE UPCOMING DAYS, A HEAT
PRODUCT IS ALMOST CERTAIN AT SOME POINT THIS WEEK, WITH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEING PROMISING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD 105 HEAT INDICES.
THE SHIFT AWAY FROM SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LIMIT MOISTURE
ADVECTION AND DRY CONDITIONS OUT QUICKLY. WPC D1-7 QPF IS
RELATIVELY OPTIMISTIC IN THEIR SPRINKLING OF "TRACE" AMOUNTS IN
PARTS OF THE CWA, BUT I WOULDN'T BET ON SEEING MUCH. EXPECT
WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WITH THE PROLONGED HEAT AND LACK OF
RAIN. IN ADDITION, FIRE WEATHER WILL BECOME A GREATER CONCERN AS
FUELS QUICKLY DRY OUT, INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FIRE STARTS AND
EASIER FIRE SPREAD.
57
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
FOR THE 11/06Z TAF PERIOD...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
DURING THE TAF PERIOD, WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON CU.
THERE IS SOME HINT OF SOME LOW CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AIRSPACE
AROUND DAYBREAK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF
FORECAST. OTHERWISE, EXPECT WINDS TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH DURING THE PERIOD TO BETWEEN 7-12 MPH. /20/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 78 97 78 98 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 77 98 78 99 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 74 97 75 99 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 77 98 78 99 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 77 97 77 98 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 77 98 77 99 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 76 99 76 99 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 74 97 75 98 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...20
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