617
FXUS64 KSHV 210008
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
708 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
CONVECTION BEGINS TO LIGHT UP AS OF THE 19Z HOUR, AHEAD OF A
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT WHICH IS POISED JUST ON
THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE ARKLATEX THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WHICH DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE,
PARTICULARLY AS THEY TREK FURTHER EAST OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR. THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY EXISTS FOR LARGE HAIL AS THE HAZARD ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE STORMS, BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO
OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
DRIVEN BY THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT, CONVECTION LOOKS TO MOVE
EASTWARD OUT OF THE AREA FAIRLY SWIFTLY, COMING TO AN END FOR OUR
SOUTHEASTERNMOST LOUISIANA PARISHES BY LATE THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL
RAPIDLY CLEAR BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORMS, MAKING FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NUDGED DOWN BY THE
FRONT, DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 50S NORTH AND LOWER 60S SOUTH. THE
COOLING EFFECT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, HOWEVER, AS HIGH TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL FOLLOW WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX.
/26/
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH SWINGS TONIGHT'S COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS WILL GIVE WAY TO PSEUDO-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THIS WORK WEEK. BY THURSDAY, AMPLIFYING RIDGING OVER
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES WILL ESTABLISH A NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT. THOSE FAMILIAR WITH ARKLATEX WX MAY WELL RECOGNIZE
THIS SETUP AT THIS TIME OF YEAR AS FAVORABLE FOR AN UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN, BUT AS OF THIS WRITING, IT IS A RELIEF TO SAY THAT
IMPACTS TO THE REGION LOOK LIMITED THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK,
WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF STORMS IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
POSSIBLY ADJACENT ZONES OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY FRIDAY, WITH
SCATTERED CHANCES AGAIN INTO SATURDAY.
LATE IN THE WEEKEND, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL BE IN THE PROCESS
OF PUSHING EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST, AND
AS IT MAKES ITS PROGRESS EAST, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO TRY TO
ORGANIZE ITSELF EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGING. WITH
THIS EMERGING FORCING MECHANISM AS THE CATALYST, SUNDAY WILL SEE THE
MOST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CHANCES IN SEVERAL DAYS, AS SHOWERS AND
STORMS BEGIN EARLY TO THE NORTHWEST AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS WILL BEGIN ANOTHER SOGGY PATTERN, AS A SERIES OF WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES SUSTAIN NEAR AREAWIDE RAINFALL CHANCES
THROUGH TO THE END OF THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE
80S AND 90S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BEFORE NEXT WEEK'S
RAINFALL BRINGS MAX TEMPS BACK INTO THE 70S AND 80S. MEANWHILE,
LOWS LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE 60S AND 70S THROUGHOUT.
/26/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
FOR THE 21/00Z TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS HAVE MOVED INTO THE
REGION AT ALL SITES. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
CONVECTION AT KMLU OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO, BUT THE COOL FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH, ENDING RAIN CHANCES EARLY THIS EVENING. BEHIND
THE FRONT, WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY NEAR 10 MPH OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 MPH. OVERNIGHT, WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE, THEN EVENTUALLY SOUTHERLY BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN, WITH HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. /20/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST
TEXAS, FAR NORTHERN LOUISIANA, SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS, AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY
REQUIRE ADDITIONAL ACTIVATION ACROSS NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS WHERE A SLIGHT RISK IS IN PLACE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 63 91 65 94 / 10 0 0 0
MLU 62 88 63 91 / 40 0 0 0
DEQ 55 86 58 84 / 0 0 0 10
TXK 59 90 62 89 / 0 0 0 10
ELD 56 88 59 90 / 10 0 0 0
TYR 61 88 65 90 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 59 89 63 90 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 62 91 65 94 / 10 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...20
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