153
FXUS64 KSHV 260621
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1221 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
- WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING WILL BRING
WITH IT A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS INTO NORTHEAST LOUISIANA.
- WEAK DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SMALL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN THIRD
BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT, CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
- BETTER RAIN CHANCES "MAY" RETURN TO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES POISED TO EJECT
OUT INTO THE GREAT PLAINS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE MIDDLE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF NE TX, SE OK AND SW AR ATTM, BEST INDICATED BY EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY AND A SLIGHT
REDUCTION IN TEMPERATURE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN MOST ZONES. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ON THURSDAY BEFORE IT'S CAUGHT BY
OUR NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL SHOVE THE BOUNDARY SOUTH AND
EAST, TAKING UP RESIDENCE NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF OUR REGION THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND FORCING IN PLACE ALONG THIS COLD FRONT TO GENERATE A NARROW
LINE OF SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM, MAINLY ACROSS
NE LA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON BUT MORE LIKELY THIS EVENING.
WINDS QUICKLY RETURN BACK TO A SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
FOR SATURDAY AND WITH THAT WILL BE A WARMUP WITH TEMPERATURES AT
LEAST IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
WHILE SFC WINDS RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND, LOOKING ALOFT, OUR UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE WNW
AND WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THIS FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU AT LEAST
SUN NIGHT ACROSS MAINLY OUR NORTHERN THIRD.
THINGS BEGIN TO LOOK A LITTLE INTERESTING AS WE PIVOT OUT OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN
TO TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY MID WEEK AS A VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES CUTOFF ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
OF THE COUNTRY WITH UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SE CONUS. AT THIS
TIME, THE UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO REMAIN IN PLACE LONG ENOUGH FOR
THIS LEAD SHORTWAVE TO EJECT OUT MAINLY NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION
BUT THE TROUGH QUICKLY RELOADS BY NEXT THU INTO FRI AND THIS IS
WHERE PROGS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITIONING OF
THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER RIDGE. THE POSITIONING OF THIS RIDGE
WILL HAVE HUGE IMPLICATIONS ON RAIN CHANCES BY THE MIDDLE AND
LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW, NBM IS HIGHLIGHTING CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION BEGINNING WED AND CONTINUING INTO THU
AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE LOCATION OF THE ABOVE FEATURES,
THIS IS A PRETTY CONSERVATIVE ROUTE FOR THE FORECAST TO TAKE FOR
NOW.
13
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
FOR THE 26/06Z TAF UPDATE, VFR VIS/CIGS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR/IFR
LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND PERSISTENCE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FROM NOW
UNTIL 26/18Z BEFORE SLOW VFR IMPROVEMENTS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
/16/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS STILL NOT EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK.
HOWEVER, PLEASE CONTINUE TO RELAY INFORMATION ON WILDFIRE
ACTIVITY FOUR-STATE AREA WIDE, TO HELP OUR FIRST RESPONDERS
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.
13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 82 54 78 51 / 20 20 0 0
MLU 79 53 75 48 / 30 30 0 0
DEQ 78 44 75 53 / 0 10 0 0
TXK 80 50 77 50 / 10 10 0 0
ELD 78 48 75 44 / 20 10 0 0
TYR 83 53 80 53 / 0 10 0 0
GGG 83 52 79 50 / 10 10 0 0
LFK 81 56 80 53 / 10 10 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...16
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