940
FXUS64 KSHV 021120
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
520 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2025
- THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER SEASON FOR THE ARK-LA-TEX (SO
FAR) WILL OCCUR IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
- THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN OCCURS BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
- DRY, SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN BY THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2025
THE MID-LATITUDE LONGWAVE TRAIN CONTINUES APACE WITH TROUGH
ARRIVAL ABOUT EVERY THREE DAYS ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION. THIS
SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SHORTER ATMOSPHERIC
RECOVERY TIMES, LIMITING CONVECTION TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AT MOST AND STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION (IN LIQUID
FORM) AT A WIDESPREAD MINIMUM. THE NEXT ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION
ARRIVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL CARRY THE SAME
CHARACTERISTICS AS FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY AND POST-FRONNTAL
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE THROUGH FRIDAY DELIVERS THE SAME MILQUETOAST
CONVECTIVE VARIETY WE'VE COME TO EXPECT IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS. WPC
QPF ADDS THIS ALL UP TO A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST 0.01-1.25 INCH
RAINFALL GRADIENT OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND
IN KIND WITH MAXIMUMS AND MINIMUMS MODERATED BELOW NORMAL UNDER
PRECIPITATION BY THE END OF THE WEEK, AND BACK TO NEAR-NORMAL
(MAXIMUMS IN THE 60S, MINIMUMS IN THE 40S) WHEN THE PRECIPITATION
IS NOT FALLING AND CLOUDS ARE THINNER. /16/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2025
FOR THE 02/12Z TAFS, SKIES HAVE BEGUN TO CLEAR ACROSS OUR WESTERN
AIRSPACE. ELSEWHERE, IFR TO MVFR CIGS REMAIN, AND ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY, SCATTERING OUT AND
EVENTUALLY LIFTING TO VFR AREAWIDE, WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS IF NOT
SKC AT AREA TERMINALS, FOLLOWED BY INCREASING BKN TO OVC HIGH
CLOUD DECKS BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN
NORTHERLY THROUGH DAYLIGHT HOURS AT SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS,
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY SUNSET AND SWINGING AROUND TO
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT WHILE REMAINING LIGHT.
/26/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST MON DEC 1 2025
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 50 34 59 45 / 0 0 0 60
MLU 46 28 55 43 / 0 0 0 70
DEQ 46 25 55 35 / 0 0 0 10
TXK 47 31 57 41 / 0 0 0 30
ELD 43 25 53 37 / 0 0 0 50
TYR 49 35 60 44 / 0 0 0 40
GGG 50 32 60 43 / 0 0 0 50
LFK 53 33 62 47 / 0 0 10 80
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...26
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